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amhacker22
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10/23/2017 10:39AM
I know some of you won't even want to talk about it, but I'm looking forward to it.

I know median ice-in is around mid-November generally in the BWCA from what I can gather on the DNR site. Anyone have any thoughts on if we'll be early or late this year? I'm guessing that's probably about right, but there's no science associated with it outside of a pretty chilly forecast for the rest of the week. That said, the surface water temp was still about 50 over the weekend. I suspect it can cool off in a hurry if its cold enough.

Anyone been paying attention and have any stronger predictions than that?

 
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WhiteWolf
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10/23/2017 11:12AM
I'am not going to bite totally on ice-up as things are running warm-- but snow looks likely this upcoming wk-end across N.MN and another re-curving typhoon in the W. Pacific spells a below normal first week of NOV at least for the E lower 48. What happens after that is a little muddled right now.

temp scale is in Kelvin which is basically the same as "C" for this purpose.

10/23/2017 11:22AM
I'm guessing later, the weather is a month behind. I always head up north right after Christmas for ice fishing. The last few years the ice was marginal to say the least. Sure, there were places to walk out to before then, but as far as driving the truck out to places I fish was not an option. But who knows...
Gadfly
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10/23/2017 12:51PM
We are due for good early ice. I am hoping to walk across ice on my way to the deer stand instead of hopping grass mounds across the swamp. Don't really have a prediction just hoping it is sooner than later.
arctic
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10/23/2017 02:00PM

Reliable early ice is much less likely now than it was 20-30 years ago, and the "normals/averages" people like to cite are no longer representative of the current climate. 30 years ago ice-fishing was a regular activity by Thanksgiving on most small/shallow lakes in central and northern Minnesota, in most years. This year won't likely buck the trend of warmer falls and later freeze-ups.
Grandma L
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10/23/2017 05:23PM
Minnesota Ice Index check out this site - gives earliest and latest and average - make your own educated guess.
Savage Voyageur
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10/23/2017 09:41PM
We need to get TGO to officiate a name the time/date the Lake ices over contest again on a lake near Ely.
The Great Outdoors
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10/23/2017 10:58PM
quote Savage Voyageur: "We need to get TGO to officiate a name the time/date the Lake ices over contest again on a lake near Ely. "
Shagawa Lake next to Ely-Bring it on!! :)
mastertangler
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10/24/2017 06:15AM
We had a skim of ice form once here is south Florida about 15 years ago. I lost all my nice Christmas Palms and some other landscaping foliage.

I really miss ice fishing.
shock
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10/24/2017 12:36PM
my clan is all jacked up for ice fishing on my local lake , Waconia ! mid 90's i remember walking out to the island on thanksgiving weekend and most years (in the past) has been that first week in december. for walking) when ever mother nature decides i just hope the snow holds off until a nice base is formed ,
BRING ON THE ICE !
WhiteWolf
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10/24/2017 04:11PM
stuff has been warm and trends are hard to buck (especially this warm trend)-- but I'am seeing a near normal to early ice-in this year. Big flips in the worldwide teleconnections which seem to favor an avg to earlier then avg ice in. Really going out on a limb with the current warmth-- but globally signs point to cool to override the North (canoe land) for the next few weeks. Whether the lakes can freeze earlier is in question with how warm they are but I say earlier then last few years.
amhacker22
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10/24/2017 06:05PM
quote WhiteWolf: "stuff has been warm and trends are hard to buck (especially this warm trend)-- but I'am seeing a near normal to early ice-in this year. Big flips in the worldwide teleconnections which seem to favor an avg to earlier then avg ice in. Really going out on a limb with the current warmth-- but globally signs point to cool to override the North (canoe land) for the next few weeks. Whether the lakes can freeze earlier is in question with how warm they are but I say earlier then last few years."

Thanks! The water was 50 last weekend, but with lows in the 20s, highs in the low 30s for the next couple of weeks, it seems like it could turn in a hurry. Oh well...extra trip up to get the dock out. Things could be a whole lot worse!
WhiteWolf
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10/31/2017 02:49AM
quote WhiteWolf: "I'am not going to bite totally on ice-up as things are running warm-- but snow looks likely this upcoming wk-end across N.MN and another re-curving typhoon in the W. Pacific spells a below normal first week of NOV at least for the E lower 48. What happens after that is a little muddled right now.


temp scale is in Kelvin which is basically the same as "C" for this purpose.


"


Early ice in compared to avg (last 30 years) is very likely in N.MN. S.MN may not be on par with the current pattern. The Northern Parts of the Upper Midwest (especially West) look cool to very cool the next 14 days.
amhacker22
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10/31/2017 04:20AM
I think you're right. Here are some pics from the Arrowhead Trail on Sunday:







(I'm not sure why these are upside down, although I do know people in Australia. Maybe that's it)
11/07/2017 08:36AM
Well good old Lake on Five froze over last night. Now to keep the dogs of it!
Gadfly
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11/07/2017 09:47AM
Pike Bay on Vermilion looks to be frozen over. Hearing that there is a lot of ice on Upper Red as well. Its only a matter of time until people start heading out. I will need to see a minimum of 4" until I head out. If the forecast is accurate I'll be out Thanksgiving weekend which is enough to keep me happy.
schweady
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11/07/2017 12:33PM
Yesterday, the west bay of Dead Lake here in Otter Tail County had a skim of ice. No doubt it's still there. But it probably won't last with the forecast of rain on Saturday and some slightly higher temps next week.
11/09/2017 09:32AM
Wait!

I'm overseas. It can't be that cold back home already?!
Grandma L
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11/09/2017 10:45AM
I am on the "early in - early out" team of thinkers.
Gadfly
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11/09/2017 01:16PM
People are out fishing on URL today. I don't mind early out as long as there is enough ice for my late March Lake trout trip.
LindenTree3
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11/09/2017 06:09PM
The 40 acre lake I live on near Detroit Lakes, Mn froze over 3 or 4 days ago.
I walked 30 feet from shore out on it yesterday. I'm guessing it has 3 to 4 inches of ice on it now. The lake is only 15÷ feet deep.
WhiteWolf
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11/10/2017 12:11AM
-13F at 11:59pm 11/9 at I-falls. This breaks the old minimum record for 11/9 of 0F last set in 1979 by 13F!!! It also falls just one day short of the -13F on 11/8/2003 of being the earliest temp reported in the negative teens at I-Falls. 11/10 AM low should be (need -14F) the coldest temp ever recorded so early in I-FALLS in recorded history which begun in March of 1895.

FYI- Mike Seidel from the Weather Channel is in Int'l Falls and his comment was "I have never experienced this kind of cold this early in the season" (welcome to the ICE BOX Mike and please come back in JAN )...he says locals have never seen this much snow OTG that hasn't melted away. #Winter

11/10/2017 02:05AM
At 2am in Goodland we have -5 degrees. Nice crisp night. Was just out loading the garage woodstove and the smoke is going straight up, the stars are bright and plentiful. The kind of night if I was feeling better I'd have thought about a walk.
mastertangler
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11/10/2017 06:46AM
I am in northern Ohio and its right cold. Maybe I don't miss ice fishing as much as I used to. Looking forward to cracking the Georgia state line in a week or two on my way back to sunny south Florida.
WhiteWolf
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11/10/2017 07:18AM
quote WhiteWolf: "-13F at 11:59pm 11/9 at I-falls. This breaks the old minimum record for 11/9 of 0F last set in 1979 by 13F!!! It also falls just one day short of the -13F on 11/8/2003 of being the earliest temp reported in the negative teens at I-Falls. 11/10 AM low should be (need -14F) the coldest temp ever recorded so early in I-FALLS in recorded history which begun in March of 1895.


FYI- Mike Seidel from the Weather Channel is in Int'l Falls and his comment was "I have never experienced this kind of cold this early in the season" (welcome to the ICE BOX Mike and please come back in JAN )...he says locals have never seen this much snow OTG that hasn't melted away. #Winter


"


Won't officially find out until 18Z (noon) when the 6 hourly max/min are coded in the metar, but it looks like I-Falls hit -15F but I have seen (first hand) these 5 minute reports be off.

MooseTrack
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11/10/2017 08:45AM
Just FYI Farm Lake froze completely over last night. Earliest I have seen in many years!
Soledad
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11/10/2017 09:03AM
That is awesome news! Please keep the snow off of it for a while.
bfurlow
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11/10/2017 10:36AM
Looked at some of the webcams this morning and there appears to be ice on Moose Lake and Shagwa in Ely. not sure about any of the others. Either way, it looks darn cold!
11/10/2017 12:53PM
The radio station I listen to is I falls. The coldest I heard was -13. I don't sleep much, and that was consistent all night. Here we had around -10 or so. But oh what a nice night.
WhiteWolf
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11/11/2017 07:42AM
The official low for I-falls did make it to -14F at 6:46am on 11/10. This is the coldest temperature ever recorded so early in the season at I-falls since record keeping begun in 1895.

 
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