Chat Rooms (0 Chatting)  |  Search  |   Login/Join
* For the benefit of the community, commercial posting is not allowed.
 Forum Sponsor

Author

Text

WhiteWolf
distinguished member(5116)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
02/12/2018 01:50AM
Who knows for sure but being in the weather field and one whom has taken a trip (or tried to) near the fishing opener for 20 years now - my gut call at "this time" for ice out is later too much later then normal. Planning my mid May trip accordingly, which as of this writing will mid/late MAy. Much of N.MN has been 15F+ below avg since FEB 1st and even though some rebound is coming, another cold shot looks to be in the cards for late week/ into the weekend. And this pattern looks to continue against the norms. The coldest weather is over , but against the norms it may not be as March looks to see the same type of pattern -- but with the changing of the seasons comes snow season again in the N. Woods. Something they have not seen much of with the brutal cold. That is concerning as the ice has likely built up due to the lack of insulation- and if it occurs will delay things. Long ways to go--- but I call for a later ice out , too much later for N.MN at this time. If the pattern continues as it may, some record late ice outs may be in jeopardy. I could be totally wrong- but the synoptic weather pattern seems to be when the warm air comes it's an island in a sea of cold for much of the listening area.
The following site is a little biased (as is much Noaa.gov stuff ) and has little discipline (if they are wrong)-- but it gives the big picture.. Since I cannot provide private forecasts on this site--- this should show a trend.




NCEP short and long range weather outlooks...
 
Reply    Reply with Quote    Print Top Bottom Previous Next
riverrunner
distinguished member(1729)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
02/12/2018 09:13AM
I well tell more when mid April hits.
WhiteWolf
distinguished member(5116)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
02/12/2018 09:31AM
riverrunner: "I well tell more when mid April hits."
Truth. But by then everyone knows... Even the TV Mets can forecast that. Telling people that have listened to me in the past (for whatever reason) -- ice out looks late this year.

Not 1996, or 2013,, but maybe something in between?
Gadfly
distinguished member (286)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
02/12/2018 09:40AM
So I shouldn't be concerned about ice conditions in late March when I head up for Lakers?
WhiteWolf
distinguished member(5116)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
02/12/2018 09:42AM
Gadfly: "So I shouldn't be concerned about ice conditions in late March when I head up for Lakers?"

Trick question. Obviously check the ice. But it's looking good minus the slush that many late Marches bring... And I don't even work on TV........
Banksiana
distinguished member(1663)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
02/12/2018 10:09AM
You models lack some important details....

Snow cover around Ely is significant. Snowfall was also timed previous to long term cold events so ice thickness is probably less than normal.

I don't think ice thickness is as an important driver of ice out as much as is late season snow frequency. The snow reflects the energy of the late winter/early spring sun- when the ice is exposed (without snow) to the sun it degrades quickly, if it is blanketed it holds on.
riverrunner
distinguished member(1729)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
02/12/2018 10:10AM
True it well be late, early or something in-between.
Soledad
distinguished member(1825)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
02/12/2018 11:27AM
The snow has been wind blown and sun beaten. I would say that the area could use a fresh foot. Ice is plenty thick for this time of year.
WhiteWolf
distinguished member(5116)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
02/12/2018 12:23PM
Banksiana: "You models lack some important details....


Snow cover around Ely is significant. Snowfall was also timed previous to long term cold events so ice thickness is probably less than normal.


I don't think ice thickness is as an important driver of ice out as much as is late season snow frequency. The snow reflects the energy of the late winter/early spring sun- when the ice is exposed (without snow) to the sun it degrades quickly, if it is blanketed it holds on."


I agree with the later. Expect the snowfall to increase, especially late spring as the battleground that has been Chicago,Des Moines,inches back
N. Chicago has more snow on the ground then many places in the N. Mn Much of the North has been in snow drought lately. It's just been too cold ( lack of moisture) for appreciable snow in the N.
Long range, I don't use "models", rather teleconnections ( I can provide a list for those "weenies" that want to see) around the globe. Majority of them show a late spring. Could change but 70% of my experience says late ice out.
02/12/2018 12:39PM
So May 10th could be 50/50 chance.
WhiteWolf
distinguished member(5116)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
02/12/2018 12:46PM
housty9: "So May 10th could be 50/50 chance."

I wouldn't go that far yet. Depends on entry. Sag and Gunflint (etc) might be 50/50. Right now analog years long term forcasters are using are ; 2013,2008 and even shades of 1996 among others that are warmer but a blend definitely shows a late trend.
QueticoMike
distinguished member(4782)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
02/12/2018 12:57PM
A few weeks ago I decided I was going to go a week later than previous years.
02/12/2018 01:32PM
Should be an interesting phenomena to watch for --- whether it suddenly warms up quick with perhaps a few rain events thrown in to make the ice go faster. Although, I trust the more seasoned opinions here that ice-out will probably be later than the average. Winter has certainly been colder overall here in the cities.
pastorjsackett
distinguished member(920)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
02/12/2018 08:57PM
2013 must have been that very late ice-out year....we usually go up Memorial Day and as I recall the ice had just left and the fishing was completely crappy for us. And everyone we saw commented same.

I would not want to have another blah trip like that one! Come one spring!
The Great Outdoors
distinguished member(5636)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
02/12/2018 09:48PM
Not much snow in the Ely area, especially the lakes. IF we don't get much snow, there will be an early ice out (like last year) as it goes quickly if there isn't any insulation on it.
halvorsonchristopher
distinguished member(1115)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
02/12/2018 11:49PM
QueticoMike: "A few weeks ago I decided I was going to go a week later than previous years."
What type of trip are you pushing back?
May trout? or June walleye/smallies?

What Region you headed to?
halvorsonchristopher
distinguished member(1115)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
02/12/2018 11:49PM
Double post
lundojam
distinguished member(2325)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
02/13/2018 06:29AM
I've always wanted to icefish the opener. Maybe this will be the year.
QueticoMike
distinguished member(4782)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
02/13/2018 08:13AM
halvorsonchristopher: "QueticoMike: "A few weeks ago I decided I was going to go a week later than previous years."
What type of trip are you pushing back?
May trout? or June walleye/smallies?


What Region you headed to?"


I mostly fish for smallmouth bass. I think this year we might be spending more time in the Basswood area.
Canoearoo
distinguished member(2276)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
02/13/2018 09:10AM
The ice is 3 feet thick here in Central MN. We went ice fishing last week
HoneyGuy101
member (23)member
 
02/13/2018 12:45PM
For the first time ever I have a Spring trip planned. I have scheduled it for Memorial Week and I'm getting concerned with the weather more and more. With a late ice out like you speak of I'm getting more nervous about that trip now. I'm already more worried about wind and weather the way it is but it being cold on top of that has me concerned.
WhiteWolf
distinguished member(5116)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
02/13/2018 02:00PM
lundojam: "I've always wanted to icefish the opener. Maybe this will be the year."
Trout Lake. 2008. Trout Lake Resort called the DNR if you could use two lines for the opener. Response was that if you are on the ice, yes .
WhiteWolf
distinguished member(5116)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
02/13/2018 02:07PM
HoneyGuy101: "For the first time ever I have a Spring trip planned. I have scheduled it for Memorial Week and I'm getting concerned with the weather more and more. With a late ice out like you speak of I'm getting more nervous about that trip now. I'm already more worried about wind and weather the way it is but it being cold on top of that has me concerned."

I wouldn't be concerned about ice that late. But for the record, on June 1st, 1936 Justine Kerfoot of Gunflint Lodge walked across Gunflint Lake. 1936 had some of the greatest weather extremes in the upper Midwest that has ever been recorded.


Mn ice out records for Gunflint Lake

Cook County News Herald
halvorsonchristopher
distinguished member(1115)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
02/13/2018 10:39PM
HoneyGuy101: "For the first time ever I have a Spring trip planned. I have scheduled it for Memorial Week and I'm getting concerned with the weather more and more."
Nothing to worry about here! You'll be ok! Even if Ice out is LATE, it wont be that late.
halvorsonchristopher
distinguished member(1115)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
02/13/2018 10:41PM
QueticoMike: "halvorsonchristopher: "QueticoMike: "A few weeks ago I decided I was going to go a week later than previous years."What type of trip are you pushing back?"
I mostly fish for smallmouth bass. I think this year we might be spending more time in the Basswood area. "

Best of luck.
Are you assuming all prime time fishing windows will be a delayed? or just the Smallie sub-surface/top-water?
Pinetree
distinguished member(12834)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished membermaster membermaster member
 
02/15/2018 10:37PM
Unless we get a lot of snow from here on out.majority of the state has less snow than normal. If it melts I know past years many days we would beat forecasts by 10 degrees F. due to the lack of snow and brown conditions than absorbing heat.
Ice on lakes is like 22-25 inches around Brainerd and I heard like 25-30 inches up the Gunflint. But with little snow on the lakes if it melts and than plain ice absorbs more heat also. Especially when it gets a little dark color.
WhiteWolf
distinguished member(5116)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
02/15/2018 11:08PM
Central MN looks to have a decent chance at 6"+ snows Sun-Tues of next week. Likely just N of the Twin Cites and S of Duluth with the heaviest band as of this writing. I would post a map but it's worthless at this point for actual amounts to actual locations....
WhiteWolf
distinguished member(5116)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
02/18/2018 03:34AM
WhiteWolf: "Banksiana: "You models lack some important details....



Snow cover around Ely is significant. Snowfall was also timed previous to long term cold events so ice thickness is probably less than normal.



I don't think ice thickness is as an important driver of ice out as much as is late season snow frequency. The snow reflects the energy of the late winter/early spring sun- when the ice is exposed (without snow) to the sun it degrades quickly, if it is blanketed it holds on."


I agree with the later. Expect the snowfall to increase, especially late spring as the battleground that has been Chicago,Des Moines,inches back
N. Chicago has more snow on the ground then many places in the N. Mn Much of the North has been in snow drought lately. It's just been too cold ( lack of moisture) for appreciable snow in the N.
Long range, I don't use "models", rather teleconnections ( I can provide a list for those "weenies" that want to see) around the globe. Majority of them show a late spring. Could change but 70% of my experience says late ice out.
"

Not to toot my own horn-- but here it comes (the snow) for the Northland. Not only this late weekend, but for most of the medium/long range (5-7 days) in the extended. Tis' the season. for snow in the NORTH along with ice storms in Iowa. I will be somewhat surprised- with the latest info I have seen for March- if lakes are out early. March looks much like the recent late DEC- early JAN temps (adjusted for normals) to repeat itself. As mentioned- snowfall will be key as we get further into March and is impossible to forecast past 7 days. But a good snow pack is going be laid down in the next 7 days across much of MN-- likely the deepest of all season across the Northland.

Enjoy the weather- it's the only weather you got.

QueticoMike
distinguished member(4782)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
02/18/2018 07:45AM
halvorsonchristopher: "QueticoMike: "halvorsonchristopher: "QueticoMike: "A few weeks ago I decided I was going to go a week later than previous years."What type of trip are you pushing back?"
I mostly fish for smallmouth bass. I think this year we might be spending more time in the Basswood area. "

Best of luck.
Are you assuming all prime time fishing windows will be a delayed? or just the Smallie sub-surface/top-water?"


The last few or more years the water was still too cold for bass to move up onto the bedding areas. Hoping that by going a week later might help. We'll probably be a week late now :)
The Great Outdoors
distinguished member(5636)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
02/18/2018 04:10PM
We just got about 11+ inches in the Ely area which is not going to do the lakes any good for an early ice out. :(
Pinetree
distinguished member(12834)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished membermaster membermaster member
 
02/18/2018 04:14PM
The Great Outdoors: "We just got about 11+ inches in the Ely area which is not going to do the lakes any good for an early ice out. :("

Wow,we got zero in the Mille lacs area. We could actually use some down here. Sounds like slush time again up there?
Handycamp
member (43)member
 
02/19/2018 09:13PM
Oh, the ice out's connected to the - temperature, and the temperature's connected to the - snow pack, and the snow pack's connected to the - ice thickness, and the thickness is connected to the - historical average, and the...
02/19/2018 10:09PM
...unless it rains a lot...
arctic
distinguished member(5177)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
02/20/2018 09:02AM
We picked up 15 inches of snow in the past 48 hours and have 24 inches on the ground. This is about average for this time of year.
Soledad
distinguished member(1825)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
02/20/2018 10:02AM
The Great Outdoors: "We just got about 11+ inches in the Ely area which is not going to do the lakes any good for an early ice out. :("

It will extend the beautiful winter camping season though!
yogi59weedr
distinguished member(2071)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
02/20/2018 12:31PM
Handycamp.........
Bahahahaha
Pinetree
distinguished member(12834)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished membermaster membermaster member
 
02/20/2018 01:21PM
arctic: "We picked up 15 inches of snow in the past 48 hours and have 24 inches on the ground. This is about average for this time of year."

Wow,you really didn't have much before either.
northerncanoe
 
02/20/2018 09:48PM
I knew we were pushing it when we decided our Quetico trip would start on May 12th this year. Looking for the really early season trout.

Looks like we could be pushing the canoe across the ice, eh?

Well, we did a late trip one fall and had to break ice on the way out. So I guess we will see what happens. I do know the ice is good and thick up the Gunflint this year.

Thanks for the interesting discussion WhiteWolf.
02/21/2018 09:07AM
So are you saying my trip that has been forced into July- instead of June- might have better fishing than expected?!!!!

YES !!!!

Thanks and keep it frosty!
HoneyGuy101
member (23)member
 
02/21/2018 09:18AM
Thank God for this website right now. Negative temperatures and fresh snow are making it difficult to believe that we'll be there in 90 days. But seriously though, I cannot wait!
Pinetree
distinguished member(12834)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished membermaster membermaster member
 
02/21/2018 09:26AM
This is probably less snow and ice in a normal year. I remember years like 36 inches of ice and 40 inches of snow at least in some winters.
02/21/2018 11:19AM
HoneyGuy101: "Thank God for this website right now. Negative temperatures and fresh snow are making it difficult to believe that we'll be there in 90 days. But seriously though, I cannot wait!"

I'm with you on this one! I only modestly hoping that March at this point starts to trend into above freezing days/below freezing nights so that I can tap my maple trees!
TheGreatIndoors
senior member (84)senior membersenior member
 
03/01/2018 07:54AM
Okay WhiteWolf, any updates from the weather gods?
Pinetree
distinguished member(12834)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished membermaster membermaster member
 
03/01/2018 09:30AM
TheGreatIndoors: "Okay WhiteWolf, any updates from the weather gods? "

You mean I can't head north with the canoe this week TGO?

I see next week looks like a mess,with rain,snow or sleet? The forecasts are all over the place.
Yeh Whitewolf what our you going to send our way?
I do know the sun has power now and hillsides are trying to get bare.
Grandma L
distinguished member(5217)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
03/01/2018 04:25PM
Just had the nephew pull the canoe out of the back and load it on the trailer. Heading north this weekend for some snow shoeing but I just can't go up north without a canoe - no matter the season. Or this canoe needs to get to the cabin.
03/01/2018 04:57PM
Good idea GrandmaL. Xcountry skiing went to heck this week in the south metro with the increased temps and additional daylight.
LindenTree3
distinguished member(2497)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
03/01/2018 06:23PM
Grandma L: " Just had the nephew pull the canoe out of the back and load it on the trailer. Heading north this weekend for some snow shoeing but I just can't go up north without a canoe - no matter the season. Or this canoe needs to get to the cabin. "

Wow, Grandma L,
I thought my beaters looked beat, but you may have one uped me, not sure but it's close.

My beater (one of many), I managed to put some pretty good soot/smoke/fire stains on my Smoker Craft while doing one of my "Controlled Burns" on my property.
Didn't hurt it any, and now those soot stains, really give it character to this wildland firefighter.
Pinetree
distinguished member(12834)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished membermaster membermaster member
 
03/01/2018 06:46PM
LindenTree3: "Grandma L: " Just had the nephew pull the canoe out of the back and load it on the trailer. Heading north this weekend for some snow shoeing but I just can't go up north without a canoe - no matter the season. Or this canoe needs to get to the cabin. "


Wow, Grandma L,
I thought my beaters looked beat, but you may have one uped me, not sure but it's close.


My beater (one of many), I managed to put some pretty good soot/smoke/fire stains on my Smoker Craft while doing one of my "Controlled Burns" on my property.
Didn't hurt it any, and now those soot stains, really give it character to this wildland firefighter."


Them old aluminum canoes were tough and relatively heavy(my 17 foot alumacraft weighted like 80 pounds plus.) But you could beat the heck out of them and they were ready for more.
Grandma L
distinguished member(5217)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
03/01/2018 10:27PM
Grandma L: " Just had the nephew pull the canoe out of the back and load it on the trailer. Heading north this weekend for some snow shoeing but I just can't go up north without a canoe - no matter the season. Or this canoe needs to get to the cabin. "
I bought this old 17' Alumicraft in 1965. It is still in great shape. It was just parked in the leaf pile for, well, several months. A good washing and it will be good as new. It was last used as a table top on a couple of saw horses for an outdoor wedding reception in my back yard - 3 years ago.
Pinetree
distinguished member(12834)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished membermaster membermaster member
 
03/01/2018 10:35PM
Grandma L: "Grandma L: " Just had the nephew pull the canoe out of the back and load it on the trailer. Heading north this weekend for some snow shoeing but I just can't go up north without a canoe - no matter the season. Or this canoe needs to get to the cabin. "
I bought this old 17' Alumicraft in 1965. It is still in great shape. It was just parked in the leaf pile for, well, several months. A good washing and it will be good as new. It was last used as a table top on a couple of saw horses for an outdoor wedding reception in my back yard - 3 years ago."


I think I bought mine in 1972 and it weight was actually 85 pounds(I actually weighed it once) they advertised it as 72 pounds. Still great river canoes.
dasunt
member (50)member
 
03/02/2018 12:10PM
Planning on going in on May 12th this year of the Echo trail, so I hope you are wrong.
WhiteWolf
distinguished member(5116)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
03/04/2018 07:01PM
TheGreatIndoors: "Okay WhiteWolf, any updates from the weather gods? "

Been away from the weather since late last week and just starting to get back into it. I will try and put something together for an extended outlook (10+ days) for MN/WI early this upcoming week.
03/26/2018 08:06AM
Should I change my plans for May tenth Whitewolve?
Gadfly
distinguished member (286)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
03/26/2018 01:58PM
Was up the gunflint trial last week, the lake we were on had at least a foot of snow with 25 inches of ice underneath it. We had at least two nights reach below 0 but they days warmed up quite nicely into the mid 30s.
The Great Outdoors
distinguished member(5636)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
03/26/2018 11:16PM
housty9: "Should I change my plans for May tenth Whitewolve?
"

Where are you heading for on the 10th??
We just got another 5-6 inches of wet snow in the Ely area, adding to the snow already on the lakes that have a lot of ice on them.
Other than the next two days being fairly warm, the temps until April 9th are looking to be cold, and we will not lose much if any ice by that time.
Things could change rapidly (warm and rainy) but I'm getting a bit nervous about ice out by the opener???
03/27/2018 02:57AM
WhiteWolf: "TheGreatIndoors: "Okay WhiteWolf, any updates from the weather gods? "


Been away from the weather since late last week and just starting to get back into it. I will try and put something together for an extended outlook (10+ days) for MN/WI early this upcoming week. "




Sure, you step away from it and it all goes to heck in a hen basket. Haha. Not get the warm-up going... That's your job this week. Haha.
Bucked an east wind all the way to Ohio... I'll bet it changes and I buck a west one all the way home... Canoes have that effect even when not in the water.
03/27/2018 07:21AM
My shallow, marshy, muddy-bottom Wood Lake nature center waterway is still frozen. Last year at this time, it was open water with large populations of migratory waterfowl. The ice is fairly thin in some areas here in southwest Minneapolis. Snow was eroded a bit yesterday with heavy rain falls in the late afternoon but it started with a confusing mix of sleet, rain and snow flurries. March is an up- and down-month.
Pinetree
distinguished member(12834)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished membermaster membermaster member
 
03/27/2018 08:43AM
7 day forecast doesn't look good. In the Brainerd areas if we hit the normal iceout we will have to have above normal temps after next week. Most lakes here are from around April 20.
Pinetree
distinguished member(12834)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished membermaster membermaster member
 
03/27/2018 09:03AM
The thing to remember is as we move to the middle of April the average high and a little extra is fairly warm and it can melt a lot of ice in a hurry.
QueticoMike
distinguished member(4782)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
03/27/2018 09:24AM
nctry: "WhiteWolf: "TheGreatIndoors: "Okay WhiteWolf, any updates from the weather gods? "



Been away from the weather since late last week and just starting to get back into it. I will try and put something together for an extended outlook (10+ days) for MN/WI early this upcoming week. "





Sure, you step away from it and it all goes to heck in a hen basket. Haha. Not get the warm-up going... That's your job this week. Haha.
Bucked an east wind all the way to Ohio... I'll bet it changes and I buck a west one all the way home... Canoes have that effect even when not in the water."


What part of the lovely state of Ohio did you get to visit?
BWPaddler
distinguished member(9405)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
03/27/2018 11:46AM
Yesterday was ice-out for me three years ago. Not even close this year (metro area). I vote for it to hang on a bit longer - I love winter when it's not below zero!
03/27/2018 04:57PM
Adam started an ice-out prediction thread if anyone is interested. Shagawa and Gunflint.
03/27/2018 04:59PM
HighnDry: "Adam started an ice-out prediction thread if anyone is interested. Shagawa and Gunflint."

It's here.
bwcasolo
distinguished member(1661)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
03/27/2018 06:31PM
allot can happen in 6 weeks.
WhiteWolf
distinguished member(5116)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
03/27/2018 06:46PM
This thread ( I actually forgot about it ) is a good indication that some long range weather people can get it right more so then being wrong. Not tooting my own horn- but with proper study and understanding of weather patterns around the Earth - long range trends can be seen.

So what do we have on the table for the next 3 weeks or so? More of the same. Remember- the following are not forecasts, (doesn't tell you how much below / above) just probabilities. But I can tell you from being in the field for 20 years that this is going to be well below normal and the first 10 days of April for many reading this in the Upper Midwest (I wrote about that (early APril) in another thread) is going to be coldest opening 1/3rd of April since 2007/2013 or even 1962. Also remember that the longer out a prediction is made for temps - the more those temps should be near climate normals based on length of the forecast. So the following are quite impressive and especially coming for this source.







Ok , some may say "but why?"-- how did long range forecasters know the above 45 days or more ago?? Even before the warmth of early March?
The key in this case and many long term forecasts of below normal in the winter/spring is a meteorological process called "atmospheric blocking". This blocking occurs over Greenland and extreme Eastern Canada and in layman's terms- forces cold Canadian air down over most of the Central and Eastern USA without much movement as the typical zonal flow (W to E) is interrupted by a more North to NW flow that keeps reinforcing the cold and only allows for a brief respite of above normal temps before the below normal temps resupply and and come again. Blocking is also a major factor in increased snow events in the same areas do to the amount of cold air available though the actual storms themselves are caused by others separate atmospheric processes -- MJO (Madden- Jullian- Oscillation) among others. So why is it that long term models can't see this and why it is utmost important to do your own homework and "put the time in" ?? A common finding among scientific studies is that these long-lived weather extremes are associated with recurrent atmospheric flow anomalies- in this case caused by blocking. Numerous studies have found that the poor forecast skill beyond a few days results principally from the inability of numerical weather prediction models to simulate the onset and evolution of blocking flows. Models can't pick up on it PERIOD. and neither will your local TV guy/gal unless they are in the 1%. Most local NWS will not eiter, but to be fair that is not either of their main priorities and takes a certain knack to be good at.

I do expect a pull back sometime mid April. But this type of blocking pattern just doesn't go away. Even if the block disappears - the results of it linger for sometime (30-45days) and that appears to be the case as we head into late April / early May. I do think May however will be warmer then normal as the results of blocking break down. Much like 2013. So there is hope. Some may ask why I post models if I don't really like them. Because they agree with me, that is why. Another tool that fits the pattern. You can slowly see the progress to warmer temps in the below, again, something that fits the pattern we are currently in and going to IMO. Thanks for reading.

APril-



MAY-



Week 5-


Week 6-
arctic
distinguished member(5177)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
03/27/2018 07:33PM
Thanks, WW. Good logic.
Canoearoo
distinguished member(2276)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
03/27/2018 07:35PM
Wonderful, thanks for the update. I assume this means little or no severe weather this spring?
Pinetree
distinguished member(12834)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished membermaster membermaster member
 
03/27/2018 07:50PM
Yes Thanks for update.
Grandma L
distinguished member(5217)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
03/27/2018 09:41PM
Yup, just as I thought - Ice Out - a figment of our imagination - wishful thinking.
WhiteWolf
distinguished member(5116)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
03/28/2018 01:14AM
First a good graphic from WGN in Chicago and a little more on the "Greenland Block"




The following video is from March of 2014 but the point is the same.
This guy does a good job describing the "Greenland Block"

It's also interesting that he mentions a study to see if reduction in sea ice in the Arctic has a "tie" to the Greenland Block. I have not seen any results of this study, but if true and concrete , you can expect colder Springs in the future due to the lack of sea ice comparable to normals ( W of Greenland) is most prevalent in the Spring then other times of the year. But this could also be a "feedback" mechanism that drives itself from itself since a Greenland Block drives very warm air relative to normal to the W of Greenland and thus less ice. The numerical weather models I mentioned above have this weakness of a "feedback issue" and making things to be much worse then they really will be (snowstorms etc.) because the model is programmed to only have limited amount of data ingested compared to the near infinite amount of data that drives the real atmosphere that can be studied by a human. Hence the need for somebody trained to tell you the differences and not an "app" on your phone that changes more than a politician. A trained mind must be put to it,and not just a computer. A lot of time/effort
Sorry for the ramble.
WhiteWolf
distinguished member(5116)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
03/28/2018 02:41AM
Canoearoo: "Wonderful, thanks for the update. I assume this means little or no severe weather this spring? "

For the Upper Midwest- early Spring , yes. But likely above severe weather where the air masses battle in the South and Southeast- especially tornadoes come in 2 weeks or so. Then our chances will increase mid/late-April and on. It will take awhile to get back to normal or above for tornadoes nationwide- but all it takes is one big several day outbreak and I see that coming early/mid April. See maps below. Also remember that a major misnomer of severe weather is that you need hot and humid air. The truth is - and the driver of most weather- is cold, dry and dense air that combats anything warmer then itself. That warmer air can be 65F compared to 50F for the cooler air and doesn't have to be humid like most think humid is. Cold air ALWAYS wins, but the battle means severe weather and how bad is determined by several other factors too detailed for this thread. Just because there is no warm/surface air (of what we think is warm) doesn't preclude a severe weather outbreak as long as the upper atmosphere thinks otherwise. Remember where the "severe" weather comes from. Not the surface. But above. Or better off- a mix in bad outbreaks.









WhiteWolf
distinguished member(5116)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
03/28/2018 03:18AM
Sorry for the weather rant this AM. Its just that the weather ties in with a lot of things- especially this site. I have a passion to show others the ins and outs of weather etc. That's all. Enjoy the weather - it is the only weather you got.

03/28/2018 07:10AM
All good information. The more we know, the more we understand.
03/28/2018 07:53AM
More concurrence.

03/28/2018 07:57AM
The Great Outdoors: "housty9: "Should I change my plans for May tenth Whitewolve?
"

Where are you heading for on the 10th??
We just got another 5-6 inches of wet snow in the Ely area, adding to the snow already on the lakes that have a lot of ice on them.
Other than the next two days being fairly warm, the temps until April 9th are looking to be cold, and we will not lose much if any ice by that time.
Things could change rapidly (warm and rainy) but I'm getting a bit nervous about ice out by the opener???"
EP 16, changed that trip to the fall, heading in EP 37 the 25th May.
Canoearoo
distinguished member(2276)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
03/28/2018 08:17AM
We go canoe camping in Chippewa nf every memorial weekend for the last 22 years. One year ice out happed a few days before. A completely different year it was so warm the kids were Swimming by Memorial Day at the same campsite.

Thanks for the severe weather explanation. I'll take this cold over the tornadoes from last spring.
Mad_Angler
distinguished member(1580)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
03/28/2018 01:03PM
WhiteWolf: "...
So what do we have on the table for the next 3 weeks or so? More of the same. Remember- the following are not forecasts, (doesn't tell you how much below / above) just probabilities. But I can tell you from being in the field for 20 years that this is going to be well below normal and the first 10 days of April for many reading this in the Upper Midwest (I wrote about that (early APril) in another thread) is going to be coldest opening 1/3rd of April since 2007/2013 or even 1962. ...

"


So... If I'm reading this correctly, it will be a pretty late ice out. It doesn't look like the ice will even begin to melt for another few weeks. If it starts to melt in mid April, it will be at least early May before it is gone.

What are you putting your odds for a liquid opener?
Duboly
distinguished member (319)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
03/28/2018 01:26PM
Thanks for the posts this morning WW, that's a wealth of information you have given us to read and absorb as are most of your posts. To me it sounds like the middle of May should be warmer than usual and no problem with a liquid entry for opener.
WhiteWolf
distinguished member(5116)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
03/28/2018 05:04PM
Mad_Angler: "WhiteWolf: "...
So what do we have on the table for the next 3 weeks or so? More of the same. Remember- the following are not forecasts, (doesn't tell you how much below / above) just probabilities. But I can tell you from being in the field for 20 years that this is going to be well below normal and the first 10 days of April for many reading this in the Upper Midwest (I wrote about that (early APril) in another thread) is going to be coldest opening 1/3rd of April since 2007/2013 or even 1962. ...


"



So... If I'm reading this correctly, it will be a pretty late ice out. It doesn't look like the ice will even begin to melt for another few weeks. If it starts to melt in mid April, it will be at least early May before it is gone.

What are you putting your odds for a liquid opener?"


Where? The only lakes I would be somewhat concerned about (and even that concern would be rather mild) is the large/deep lakes closest to Lake Superior like BIG SAG / GUNFLINT etc. The Western Lakes in the BWCAW historically lose their ice first and I don't see any in that geographic region still having an ice cover come May 12th as of this writing. less then 5% chance. A week earlier would be different.
15% chance as of this writing lakes like BIG SAG and Gunflint have ice on May 12th.
The Great Outdoors
distinguished member(5636)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
03/28/2018 09:17PM
It ain't looking good for the opener being ice free unless this forecast changes dramatically!!
Pinetree
distinguished member(12834)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished membermaster membermaster member
 
03/28/2018 09:21PM
I don't think we will make normal ice out but still think we got a great chance for ice out by opener,If it can start warming up by at least April 10th. We got some wiggle room yet.
The Great Outdoors
distinguished member(5636)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
03/29/2018 06:33AM
Pinetree: "I don't think we will make normal ice out but still think we got a great chance for ice out by opener,If it can start warming up by at least April 10th. We got some wiggle room yet."
I think our wiggle room is gone looking at the forecast up until April 11th.
If that prediction holds, only rain and night temps in the 40 degree or warmer range will take the ice out before the opener.
You may have some lakes in central or southern Minnesota that will be ice free, but the northern portion is gonna have issues.
Hope I'm wrong, but it does not look good!!!!
03/29/2018 07:26AM
Pinetree
distinguished member(12834)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished membermaster membermaster member
 
03/29/2018 07:53AM
The Great Outdoors: "Pinetree: "I don't think we will make normal ice out but still think we got a great chance for ice out by opener,If it can start warming up by at least April 10th. We got some wiggle room yet."
I think our wiggle room is gone looking at the forecast up until April 11th.
If that prediction holds, only rain and night temps in the 40 degree or warmer range will take the ice out before the opener.
You may have some lakes in central or southern Minnesota that will be ice free, but the northern portion is gonna have issues.
Hope I'm wrong, but it does not look good!!!!
"


Woke up turn on Computer and I see this for my area: .An Alberta clipper is anticipated to move through the Northland Confidence is increasing that a swath of 6 to 9" will be possible from the Brainerd Lakes area east towards the Twin Ports and across all of northwest Wisconsin. Some gusty northerly winds should accompany the clipper, with gusts between 20 to 30 mph, which could lead to blowing snow and reduced visibilities.
This will lead to some hazardous travel conditions during this
time frame.
03/29/2018 08:11AM
Third week of April might bring temps in the 60s according to some model predictions. Too early to firm that up but it's a glimmer of better news.
mapsguy1955
distinguished member(695)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
03/29/2018 01:00PM
A bit concerned about going in the 18th of May For Northern Quetico (Stanton Bay)... Hoping a few days of ice out before!
The Great Outdoors
distinguished member(5636)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
03/29/2018 02:30PM
Hmm, Northern Quetico on May 18th????
I'll be surprised if the Ely area has all the lakes open by then.
WhiteWolf
distinguished member(5116)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
03/31/2018 04:15PM
After the rather widespread 4-12" of snow across Central MN- the following is about to be as expected. Another widespread snow event mon into Tues. Records will likely be broken later this upcoming week. I may even have to change my "%" above on chances of ice for MAy 12... still a long ways to go--



Pinetree
distinguished member(12834)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished membermaster membermaster member
 
03/31/2018 07:46PM
Yeh we got 10-12 inches by Mille lacs today. Now have average of 20 inches in the woods. Went skiing today,very beautiful out.
03/31/2018 08:19PM
We got a dusting... Cold as Iowa here... I can't imagine the wind chill... My straps got rained on before I put them away and when I went to put last boats on tonight they would freeze faster than one of BeaV's paddle strokes. Off to warmth again... I hope.
WhiteWolf
distinguished member(5116)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
03/31/2018 10:23PM
Most of the below normal on the following map should be up front in the first half of April. But still. The damage will have been done IMO for some of the larger/deep lakes near Superior for the opener.

03/31/2018 10:25PM
It's mostly a thin layer of crust down here in the Twin Cities. The strong sunshine evaporated it off the roads and sidewalks. We'll need above freezing temps to start to reduce the snow cover.
04/01/2018 06:54AM
Possible tangent and I apologize. The Greenland block thing reminded me.
I have wondered for the past couple years how the increased irrigation and green in western Nebraska and eastern Colorado due to draining of the aquifer (also known as irrigation) might be impacting weather in the upper Midwest. My presumption is the higher humidity tends to cool air and there is a large area involved. Anyone talking about this in the weather field?
WhiteWolf
distinguished member(5116)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
04/01/2018 04:57PM
On the bright side- at least it's not the BWCAW/Q - yet.

WhiteWolf
distinguished member(5116)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
04/01/2018 09:03PM
bhouse46: "Possible tangent and I apologize. The Greenland block thing reminded me.
I have wondered for the past couple years how the increased irrigation and green in western Nebraska and eastern Colorado due to draining of the aquifer (also known as irrigation) might be impacting weather in the upper Midwest. My presumption is the higher humidity tends to cool air and there is a large area involved. Anyone talking about this in the weather field?"


This a is good question. I'am not aware of any influence this irrigation may have on a macro scale when it comes to the weather/climate - but that doesn't mean that someone else does or is aware of it. My .02 of weather knowledge would say that the effect is too small to be felt much outside of the immediate area but would definitely have an impact locally in it's own micro climate. Probably not looked at in depth since the population in that area is pretty sparse. One thing that may influence things is the "greener" landscape. This would have an influence on the albedo effect (amount of suns energy absorbed or reflected), slightly, compared to the "less green" it used to be.

I will keep my ears open to this subject and let you know if hear anything about it. Thanks the question.
muddyfeet
distinguished member(626)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
04/01/2018 10:28PM
I love stumbling on threads like this and ending up learning a lot more than I knew before. I really appreciate the explanations,WW.
HoneyGuy101
member (23)member
 
04/02/2018 08:13AM
Boy I really am worried I'm not prepared for the weather yet. It doesn't sound right saying Memorial Day Weekend has potential for ice but there really is potential. I would be rather upset if we had to cancel this trip since we can't really find time otherwise. It's going to be tough bringing a newbie couple on their first trip if it's going to be too cold to do much. Still praying to the BWCA gods!
BlackSwanAdventures
distinguished member (119)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
04/02/2018 10:34AM
well, we just made reservations at one of our fav state parks in a couple weeks anyways
we gotta suck it up, and do it!
none of this non camping stuff! we need camping! and fishin! :)
Pinetree
distinguished member(12834)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished membermaster membermaster member
 
04/02/2018 10:45AM
A late ice out usually means a poor walleye opener.
mooseplums
distinguished member(10498)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished membermaster membermaster member
 
04/02/2018 11:10AM
Pinetree: "A late ice out usually means a poor walleye opener.
"

That's amateur weekend anyway
I quit going on opener years ago.
I go stream trout fishing while everyone crowds to the lakes
Pinetree
distinguished member(12834)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished membermaster membermaster member
 
04/02/2018 11:16AM
mooseplums: "Pinetree: "A late ice out usually means a poor walleye opener.
"

That's amateur weekend anyway
I quit going on opener years ago.
I go stream trout fishing while everyone crowds to the lakes"


That is what I did for years. Go stream trout fishing. Also if around home(Brainerd-Mille lacs) I never go opening weekend and the crowds. You have all season and if lucky pick nicer weather.
WhiteWolf
distinguished member(5116)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
04/02/2018 04:11PM
The following is really not related to the Northwoods weather- but it does show how cold this pattern is.... -2F in Central Illinois???

Some places broke records by 15-20F!!!!
WhiteWolf
distinguished member(5116)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
04/02/2018 04:29PM
Just came across this--

Lincoln,IL crushed the old record of 20F by 21 degrees (-1F).

The -1°F temperature at Lincoln, IL, is the most southerly sub-zero reading in the month of April for any station between western Kansas and eastern W. Virginia in the climate record.

nooneuno
distinguished member(526)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
04/02/2018 06:15PM
More proof of global warming......Sorry WW someone had to do it.............
WhiteWolf
distinguished member(5116)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
04/02/2018 06:37PM
Let's keep this about the topic on hand and not divulge into other matters. Too many decent threads get deleted from spiraling out of control.

Some signs of hope?? As I have mentioned in previous posts- the pattern should flip mid/late month. Some computer guidance is starting to show that. The latest European Model Ensembles (a blend of 50 runs- each tweaked in a different way before initialization ) for Cedar Rapids,IA has it becoming near normal by mid month. Let's hope it's the case!!!

04/02/2018 06:58PM
I'll vote for that!
arctic
distinguished member(5177)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
04/02/2018 07:13PM
WhiteWolf: "Just came across this--

Lincoln,IL crushed the old record of 20F by 21 degrees (-1F).


The -1°F temperature at Lincoln, IL, is the most southerly sub-zero reading in the month of April for any station between western Kansas and eastern W. Virginia in the climate record.


"


That is very impressive. I've only recorded five zero or below readings in April since I first began official observation in 1998 (the latest on April 20!) But I live 500 miles farther north!
shock
distinguished member(3534)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
04/02/2018 07:49PM
nooneuno: "More proof of global warming......Sorry WW someone had to do it............." remember"they" had to change it to climate change because global warming was proven wrong :)
Pinetree
distinguished member(12834)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished membermaster membermaster member
 
04/02/2018 08:13PM
arctic: "WhiteWolf: "Just came across this--


Lincoln,IL crushed the old record of 20F by 21 degrees (-1F).



The -1°F temperature at Lincoln, IL, is the most southerly sub-zero reading in the month of April for any station between western Kansas and eastern W. Virginia in the climate record.



"



That is very impressive. I've only recorded five zero or below readings in April since I first began official observation in 1998 (the latest on April 20!) But I live 500 miles farther north!"


Brainerd in 1975 April 1-4 ranged from -4 to -14 degrees F.. I know it waas a hard winter on the deer.(I really am dating myself now-the old days)
WhiteWolf
distinguished member(5116)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
04/03/2018 06:28AM
I'am not sure what records are in Southern Ontario , but this following map (current surface conditions this AM) looks more like the dead of wintewr then early April. Sioux Lookout- near the great walleye fishery of Lac Seul is -17F while Armstrong near Lake Nipigon is -24F. Folks, that is crazy.

SoMpls
distinguished member (116)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
04/03/2018 09:37AM
nooneuno: "More proof of global warming......Sorry WW someone had to do it............."

CrookedPaddler1
distinguished member(1393)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
04/03/2018 10:41AM
This time of the year is always interesting! I just came off of a trout fishing / dog sled trip in late march. Still a solid 24" of ice on Knife lake. However, the holes that got direct sunlight were definitely larger than the 8" whole we drilled by hand by the end of the day.

We were still dealing with waist deep snow near shore! We have missed the last couple of big rounds of snow, but with the cooler weather we are not melting any of the snow.

A question for WhiteWolf -- It seems that once the snow is gone, the temperatures start to rise rapidly. Is there any data showing what the tempteratures would be like during this cold snap if there was no snow on the ground?
Moss Tent
Guest Paddler
 
04/03/2018 05:02PM
WW: "Some signs of hope?? As I have mentioned in previous posts- the pattern should flip mid/late month. Some computer guidance is starting to show that."


As a former military pilot, I appreciate met reports more than most.

But the above is classic. Really? Things warming up in mid/late April? I never would have guessed. Good thing the big boys have petaFLOPS computers to validate the obvious.
Pinetree
distinguished member(12834)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished membermaster membermaster member
 
04/03/2018 05:09PM
There have been quite a few years like the ice goes out the day before. It wasn't that long ago tho I remember going to Isabella lake the Monday after opener. The lake was frozen to Sunday Noon that year.
Grandma L
distinguished member(5217)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
04/03/2018 05:47PM
Ice Out? haven't you heard - Budget Cuts - we are not having Ice Out this year!
WhiteWolf
distinguished member(5116)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
04/03/2018 06:44PM
Moss Tent: "WW: "Some signs of hope?? As I have mentioned in previous posts- the pattern should flip mid/late month. Some computer guidance is starting to show that."



As a former military pilot, I appreciate met reports more than most.


But the above is classic. Really? Things warming up in mid/late April? I never would have guessed. Good thing the big boys have petaFLOPS computers to validate the obvious."
"

It doesn't have to "warm" up. There are plenty of years I could show where the pattern stayed like this through the month. 1936 and 1950 come to mind without looking. Justine Kerfoot of Gunflint Lodge walked across Gunflint Lake on June 1st , 1936. Not as obvious as one would think in an extreme pattern that throws climate normals out the proverbial window....

Appreciate your kudos on the reports.


WhiteWolf
distinguished member(5116)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
04/04/2018 06:17AM


WhiteWolf
distinguished member(5116)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
04/04/2018 06:17AM
The current temperature at Des Moines makes this the third day already this month with a low below 20 degrees. We're (NWS) forecasting a low of 18 degrees on Saturday morning, so if that comes to pass it would be four days this April. The only other years with at least three days in the teens in April are 1936 (3) and 1881 (4).---

From in a depth study across the Upper Midwest -1881 had a very cold spring. That is another year that "things didn't go to climate norms and warm up in Mid- April". I could pass along the data from 1881 (among other years) that the cold pattern persisted into June.....

Having a little fun here. "Moss Tent" must only set up on the north side of trees when it comes to facts/reality with weather/forecasting/climate.





Moss Tent
Guest Paddler
 
04/04/2018 07:56AM
WW you seem like a good guy—but I challenge you to show. Year where, relative to the end of March, it didn’t warm up in mid-to-late April, let alone June.

Weather forecasting is always related to some particular interest. On this board, that appears to be ice-out—and for that purpose, yes, the behavior of your “pattern” is of interest.

And yes I know that it can and will warm even if the pattern holds.
Moss Tent
Guest Paddler
 
04/04/2018 02:36PM
Ridiculous record cold. Might as well be living in Loserpeg or Edmonchuk.

And I’m from Canada!
Pinetree
distinguished member(12834)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished membermaster membermaster member
 
04/04/2018 02:40PM
We got to spread the heat around. I see Pakistan had record hot temps for today of 114 degrees F.. Even half of that would be great.
Jaywalker
distinguished member(1607)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
04/04/2018 02:42PM
So, for those of us going up in late May, and who need ice in our drinks, we might not have to worry about portaging extra pounds in coolers, right?
Pinetree
distinguished member(12834)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished membermaster membermaster member
 
04/04/2018 02:58PM
Jaywalker: "So, for those of us going up in late May, and who need ice in our drinks, we might not have to worry about portaging extra pounds in coolers, right? "

Always thought it was neat to find ice in the rock crevices in May or a lasting snow drift on a portage.
Pinetree
distinguished member(12834)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished membermaster membermaster member
 
04/04/2018 03:03PM
I see for May 1 on Lake one and Moose lake people have permits for that day.
sns
distinguished member (129)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
04/04/2018 08:31PM
Jaywalker: "So, for those of us going up in late May, and who need ice in our drinks, we might not have to worry about portaging extra pounds in coolers, right? "

Exactly - just set your drink on the ice to chill while you use the auger.
riverrunner
distinguished member(1729)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
04/06/2018 11:52AM
As of April 6th and only 19 in NW wis I am thinking to going to be a bit later ice out.
Pinetree
distinguished member(12834)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished membermaster membermaster member
 
04/07/2018 08:58AM
Right now I say we will be 2 weeks behind normal iceout in much of the state.
WhiteWolf
distinguished member(5116)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
04/07/2018 01:17PM
Pinetree: "Right now I say we will be 2 weeks behind normal iceout in much of the state. "

Lakes on the N side of the Metro are right now on or past median ice out. The lake I grew up on usually lost it's ice around April 2-4th. I don't see it being out by the 20th this year - something similar to 2013 which broke records for many lakes in the area. S.MN lakes-- many are a shoe in to break records.
Pinetree
distinguished member(12834)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished membermaster membermaster member
 
04/07/2018 01:36PM
Brainerd area is around April 20th normal iceout. I was looking at 1975 iceout and it was as cold as this a and a little colder ice went out like May 5 even up north. Must of warmed up big time the last few weeks of April that year. If it gets to 6 degrees and a wind,a lot of ice melts in a day.

I see June 3, 1936 is the latest listed for Gunflint and May 22, 1950 for Burntside.
WhiteWolf
distinguished member(5116)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
04/07/2018 01:52PM
Watching the Twins today and Dick Bremer says today's game is the coldest start to a game in MLB history.... 27F at the MSP Airport just before game time.
WhiteWolf
distinguished member(5116)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
04/07/2018 01:57PM
Pinetree: "Brainerd area is around April 20th normal iceout. I was looking at 1975 iceout and it was as cold as this a and a little colder ice went out like May 5 even up north. Must of warmed up big time the last few weeks of April that year. If it gets to 6 degrees and a wind,a lot of ice melts in a day.

I see June 3, 1936 is the latest listed for Gunflint and May 22, 1950 for Burntside."



Yeah- that June, 1936 for Gunflint is unreal. It's didn't used to be in the records for Gunflint. Personally- I don't see how someone can walk across a lake that size 2 days before and then have ice out.

1950 is not in the records for Gunflint. Weather wise- the spring was even colder. I'am guessing Gunflint was near the same ice out as 1936, if not later. But that is just speculation.
Pinetree
distinguished member(12834)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished membermaster membermaster member
 
04/07/2018 03:00PM
A few years ago a small lake around home,entire small lake covered, had like a foot of ice still and a little honey comb. Well it got real windy and the whole lake went out in a day. That was exceptional. I think it got like close to 80 degrees F.

Now Gunflint you would think it would be more gradual. But you get those hot temps with a wind ice goes extremely fast.
The Great Outdoors
distinguished member(5636)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
04/07/2018 03:24PM
Shagawa: May 15th
Gunflint: May 25th
Both predictions will rely on a lot of luck to be out that early.
The only hope to be any earlier than these predictions, is a week or more of 50+ degree temps, wind, and rain!
WhiteWolf
distinguished member(5116)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
04/07/2018 03:28PM
Pinetree: "A few years ago a small lake around home,entire small lake covered, had like a foot of ice still and a little honey comb. Well it got real windy and the whole lake went out in a day. That was exceptional. I think it got like close to 80 degrees F.


Now Gunflint you would think it would be more gradual. But you get those hot temps with a wind ice goes extremely fast."


Agree- but Gunflint is deep and big. It takes time to freeze- it takes = time to unfreeze. But that is up to who decides "ice out". IMO - no way you walk across that lake and in 2 days have ice out... I think the records are a little "out of whack" but I wasn't there.
WhiteWolf
distinguished member(5116)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
04/07/2018 03:28PM
Pinetree: "A few years ago a small lake around home,entire small lake covered, had like a foot of ice still and a little honey comb. Well it got real windy and the whole lake went out in a day. That was exceptional. I think it got like close to 80 degrees F.


Now Gunflint you would think it would be more gradual. But you get those hot temps with a wind ice goes extremely fast."


Agree- but Gunflint is deep and big. It takes time to freeze- it takes = time to unfreeze. But that is up to who decides "ice out". IMO - no way you walk across that lake in 2 days and fall through within 12 hours of each... I think the records are a little "out of whack" but I wasn't there.
Jaywalker
distinguished member(1607)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
04/07/2018 05:47PM
A quiet section of the Mississippi River near downtown that was fully ice free a couple weeks ago has refrozen in the last two days. Ummm... refreezing in April?
dasunt
member (50)member
 
04/07/2018 10:05PM
Puttering around with statistics, it's kind of fun.

I have chosen two "southern" lakes with a rather good history of records - Madison by Mankato and Clear by Waseca.

Then I've chosen three northern lakes by Ely with more spotty records - Shagawa, Burntside, and Fall. By choosing three lakes, at least one of them has a ice out date for each year.

I count the ice being out if all the records available show ice out. So in 1940, as an example, Shagawa had no ice out records, but Burntside went out on the 5/11 and Fall on 5/6. So that counts as ice out by or on 5/11. This would not count as ice out by 5/7, since Burntside still had ice on it.

So, there's a 100% chance of ice out for the (Ely area) northern lakes by or on 5/22.
97.6% chance by/on 5/15.
88.0% chance by/on 5/10.
77% chance by/on 5/5.
55% chance by/on 4/30.
25% chance by/on 4/25.

But what about years like this year where it's already 4/7 and there's no ice out in Minnesota?

It drops the chances, but not by as much as you may think. For example, if the southern lakes have ice out on or after 4/15, there's still a 71.4% chance that the northern lakes have ice out by 5/10.

What I think happens is that ice thawing around Ely has an average start around early April - before that, the average temperatures are still below freezing. So a cold weather snap in early April may delay prime thawing for southern lakes, but doesn't have much of an effect on northern lakes.
dasunt
member (50)member
 
04/07/2018 10:39PM
Also, some weird years:

1941: Madison/Waseca ice out on 4/28 and 4/27. Burntside and Fall on 5/5 and 5/3.

1950: Madison and Waseca out on 4/16 and 4/18. Burntside and Fall on 5/22 and 5/19.

1979: Maddison/Waseca ice out on 4/20 and 4/19. Shagawa and Burntside on 5/15 and 5/12.

2014: Madison Waseca ice out on 4/14 and 4/12. Shagawa and Burtnside on 5/11 and 5/13.

Stumpy
distinguished member(1499)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
04/08/2018 12:24AM
I'm near Chicago.
A few days ago, a retention pond near our house re-froze.
This is April ?
WhiteWolf
distinguished member(5116)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
04/08/2018 05:05AM
I agree with much of what dasunt says, but, this year it continues to make ice well into April. April 2018 for the Upper Midwest -- the first 10days are going to be coldest start to any April in recorded history. This is unchartered territory. However---

The most concerning thing now for those concerned about ice out in time for said trips (I have one May 22nd, but on a "current lake" so should , should be Ok) , and something I mentioned in OP back in mid FEB, is with the warmth (relative speaking) coming will push the storm track to the N into the Northwoods area, more typical of this time of the year. Most of the Northwoods has missed out on all the "fun" of the past 2 weeks. The potential added snowfall is really only going retard whatever warmth (talking on top of the ice on lakes) comes and in all actuality would be better if it would stay below normal (to a point) with sun and just have the strong sun/ length of days erode the snow pack and go from there to melt the ice. Added snow is really going to slow things down further. Watch your forecasts for the BWCA area over the next few weeks- it looks quite snowy.
bwcasolo
distinguished member(1661)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
04/08/2018 05:46AM
many permits reserved for first half of may, including mine, gonna be interesting.
WhiteWolf
distinguished member(5116)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
04/08/2018 05:56AM
Record cold this AM across the Northland. The following temps are as of 6:00am CDT and may be colder then shown below.

I-Falls -3F (breaking the record set of 2F in 1989 and latest into the year a negative F temp has been reported at I-Falls since records begun there in 1895)

Ely- -6F. (breaking record of 6F set in 2016)

Cook Cty Airport- -8F - no reliable records for this location.

Crane Lake -8F - no reliable records for this location

Hibbing -- -4F (breaking the record of 3F set in 1972)

Brainerd- 0F (breaking the record of 5F set in 1997

Duluth- 2F (breaking the record of 5F set in 1997

and near the end of the Gunflint at Tucker Lake---



Pinetree
distinguished member(12834)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished membermaster membermaster member
 
04/08/2018 08:43AM
There will be very few or no leeches for walleye opener. It takes awhile forthem to get active once the ice leaves the ponds.

Also just looked at a temperature map of Alaska. Almost the entire state of Alaska is warmer than northern Minnesota.
04/08/2018 10:12AM
At first I was bummed that big duckling's soccer team is playing in a soccer tournament in Des Moines, Iowa May5/6 because that's the weekend I've done my solo the last two years. That turned out alright because I don't think there's any way people with be canoeing in the bwca by then.

Now I'm debating whether or not to use my 2 personal days and plan a trip for the May 18 weekend. I think I'm going to have to wait until mid May to make that decision and hope I can get it approved at late notice if the ice is going to be out. I don't want to put in for them now and then not be able to go (lose them) because I can carry them over to next year.
tumblehome
distinguished member(1440)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
04/08/2018 02:38PM
Pinetree: "There will be very few or no leeches for walleye opener. It takes awhile forthem to get active once the ice leaves the ponds.
"


That is not correct. I used to trap leeches commercially in my youth. We caught several thousand pounds per season. I even had an albino leech in the traps once. The hard part was sticking your hands in the cold water every morning to pick up the traps.

We set our leech traps the same day the ice went off the ponds. Leeching season only last a few months and by the forth of July they become inactive and soggy in warm water.
Leeches will b e available as soon as the ice is off the small pothole lakes and ponds in NW MN.

Tom
Stumpy
distinguished member(1499)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
04/08/2018 05:30PM
Several years ago I was painting inside of a friend's Cottage in Wisconsin , in March.
One morning a guy walked out and was ice fishing near middle of the lake.
I thought "I don't think I'd have the nerve"
The next day, the ice went out.
04/08/2018 07:33PM
Several negative double digits in northern Wisconsin this morning. This, after receiving 20 inches of snow over the previous week.
bwcasolo
distinguished member(1661)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
04/09/2018 05:40AM
here in north iowa the warm-up begins this week, maybe it is the start, after a 2 inch dusting yesterday.
WhiteWolf
distinguished member(5116)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
04/09/2018 07:32AM
As the warm air sloooowly wins out- expect the storm track to shift N also. This doesn't mean that it is done snowing further S, just that the trend is to the N. This upcoming wkend-

04/09/2018 07:51AM
There appears to be a fairly substantial storm spinning up in Colorado and heading our way. Half foot totals won't be out of the realm of possibilities, however WW is probably watching this closely and can give us more details :)
riverrunner
distinguished member(1729)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
04/09/2018 09:06AM
5 below yesterday in NW wis. going to be a late ice out for sure.
WhiteWolf
distinguished member(5116)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
04/09/2018 12:30PM
I just want to put in perspective how cold this opening is to April (and that I saw it nearly two months ago-- drum roll-- jk :O) )

so far through the first 8 days of April the avg temp at Minneapolis has been 23.1F

That is exactly 19.0F below normal over those 8 days compared to the running averages over the last 30 years in the climate record (1981-2011). And the coldest start to any April ever recorded since this stuff was "recorded". So, how does April 18' in Minneapolis stand up to the record years through the first 8 days??


Coldest April's (all 30 days) ever recorded in MPLS-

35.8F 1874
36.9F 1950
37.0F 1907 I will stop here for time issues. But plenty of other cold APrils'


So the first 8 days at MSP have been 23.1F for avg temp. Some 12F colder then the record of 1874. Big deal some would say. As you have to figure in the last 22 days of the month and that April really warms up. I would agree and did the math.


Avg temp in April through the first 8 days-

2018- 23.1F
1874 26.0F
1950 34.3F
2013 38.0F

Folks- those are the heavy hitters for years with late ice out around the Metro and most of MN. The coldest start to any April on record through at least 8 days is this year - by far. ( I have done the simple Math =it goes beyond 10 days with the current forecast, if not longer.) A lot of temp needs to be made up to even get to normal. I would do (wish I could) the same but the records are sparse for the Northland.

Bottom line- The beginning of April of 2018 has never been this cold in the history of weather records for many reading.
WhiteWolf
distinguished member(5116)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
04/10/2018 06:04AM
Ok not MN - but close enough.
Mad_Angler
distinguished member(1580)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
04/10/2018 10:00AM
What do the models say about the rest of April and early May?
Pinetree
distinguished member(12834)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished membermaster membermaster member
 
04/10/2018 10:02AM
I see models have like north central(Mille lacs area) Minnesota getting between 12 to 20 inches of snow this coming weekend. Whitewolf is this possible? Wonder how far north this will go. We still have 15 inches of snow in the woods.
Canoearoo
distinguished member(2276)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
04/10/2018 10:10AM
Weather underground is claiming 18-24! I don't believe it
Pinetree
distinguished member(12834)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished membermaster membermaster member
 
04/10/2018 10:22AM
Canoearoo: "Weather underground is claiming 18-24! I don't believe it " I used intellicast they actually had about the same. If it comes it is going to be a wet branch breaking storm.
AmarilloJim
distinguished member(1395)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
04/10/2018 10:25AM
Going to be 90 here tomorrow.
jerryr
distinguished member (102)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
04/10/2018 10:28AM
AmarilloJim: "Going to be 90 here tomorrow."

I'm glad it's not 90 here. But I could do without the fluffy white flakes floating around.

The scuttle butt around here is this is shaping up to be very much like 2013. I knew of people ice fishing on the traditional opening day of soft water fishing that year.

It was the first year we moved our trip back a week. It was due to schedules and nothing more, but was in hindsight a great move. We still go in on the latter date now. I'm not overly concerned about ice out for that date.

If it doesn't warm up however we could be making some real history and replacing latest dates that were in 1964, and 1950 on a few lakes along with the 2013 dates.

It will be interesting at very least!
WhiteWolf
distinguished member(5116)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
04/10/2018 10:39AM
Mad_Angler: "What do the models say about the rest of April and early May?
"


Long story short-- islands of warmth in a sea of cold-- but , It "should" buck this trend by late April and overturn it by mid May and May should be above normal for many reading this. Winter to Summer anyone??

WhiteWolf
distinguished member(5116)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
04/10/2018 10:44AM
Pinetree: "I see models have like north central(Mille lacs area) Minnesota getting between 12 to 20 inches of snow this coming weekend. Whitewolf is this possible? Wonder how far north this will go. We still have 15 inches of snow in the woods."


Yep. Wanted to wait on this one , as at times I think I'am too negative and let some else talk about it.. I could post some maps that would make you agree with me. (being too negative about Spring) let's wait a few more runs of the models before we get to uptight about this -- but yes-- what your forecasts show with intellicast etc.. are real as of this writing, if not underdone. But amounts for specific locations at this juncture are WAY too early. Just know that the potential exists for a big snow event.





Pinetree
distinguished member(12834)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished membermaster membermaster member
 
04/10/2018 10:55AM
Sounds good
Soledad
distinguished member(1825)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
04/10/2018 11:52AM
From NOAA:
Saturday the concern becomes heavy snow as deep cyclogenesis
occurs over the north central CONUS and a PV boot lifts across
the area. 10.00Z GFS and ECMWF solutions both bring a 2 to 2.5
FOOT swath of snow to parts of western and central MN, although
temporal and spatial differences are still present. Given the
impressive pressure gradient, winds look to be sustained at 30-40
mph with gusts approaching 50 mph from west into south central MN.

I love snow storms, the more snow and wind the better- this one will obviously let me down since the bullseye is currently real close to where I live. For today though I am filled with giddy anticipation. I feel like the Vikings are playing a playoff game again. ;)
Gadfly
distinguished member (286)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
04/10/2018 12:02PM
I am enjoying this extra winter as it is my favorite time of year. I do have to admit however that I do feel bad for those who have trips planned for early May and may have to cancel.
WhiteWolf
distinguished member(5116)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
04/10/2018 12:59PM