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WhiteWolf
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02/12/2018 01:50AM
Who knows for sure but being in the weather field and one whom has taken a trip (or tried to) near the fishing opener for 20 years now - my gut call at "this time" for ice out is later too much later then normal. Planning my mid May trip accordingly, which as of this writing will mid/late MAy. Much of N.MN has been 15F+ below avg since FEB 1st and even though some rebound is coming, another cold shot looks to be in the cards for late week/ into the weekend. And this pattern looks to continue against the norms. The coldest weather is over , but against the norms it may not be as March looks to see the same type of pattern -- but with the changing of the seasons comes snow season again in the N. Woods. Something they have not seen much of with the brutal cold. That is concerning as the ice has likely built up due to the lack of insulation- and if it occurs will delay things. Long ways to go--- but I call for a later ice out , too much later for N.MN at this time. If the pattern continues as it may, some record late ice outs may be in jeopardy. I could be totally wrong- but the synoptic weather pattern seems to be when the warm air comes it's an island in a sea of cold for much of the listening area.
The following site is a little biased (as is much Noaa.gov stuff ) and has little discipline (if they are wrong)-- but it gives the big picture.. Since I cannot provide private forecasts on this site--- this should show a trend.




NCEP short and long range weather outlooks...
 
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riverrunner
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02/12/2018 09:13AM
I well tell more when mid April hits.
WhiteWolf
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02/12/2018 09:31AM
riverrunner: "I well tell more when mid April hits."
Truth. But by then everyone knows... Even the TV Mets can forecast that. Telling people that have listened to me in the past (for whatever reason) -- ice out looks late this year.

Not 1996, or 2013,, but maybe something in between?
Gadfly
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02/12/2018 09:40AM
So I shouldn't be concerned about ice conditions in late March when I head up for Lakers?
WhiteWolf
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02/12/2018 09:42AM
Gadfly: "So I shouldn't be concerned about ice conditions in late March when I head up for Lakers?"

Trick question. Obviously check the ice. But it's looking good minus the slush that many late Marches bring... And I don't even work on TV........
Banksiana
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02/12/2018 10:09AM
You models lack some important details....

Snow cover around Ely is significant. Snowfall was also timed previous to long term cold events so ice thickness is probably less than normal.

I don't think ice thickness is as an important driver of ice out as much as is late season snow frequency. The snow reflects the energy of the late winter/early spring sun- when the ice is exposed (without snow) to the sun it degrades quickly, if it is blanketed it holds on.
riverrunner
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02/12/2018 10:10AM
True it well be late, early or something in-between.
Soledad
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02/12/2018 11:27AM
The snow has been wind blown and sun beaten. I would say that the area could use a fresh foot. Ice is plenty thick for this time of year.
WhiteWolf
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02/12/2018 12:23PM
Banksiana: "You models lack some important details....


Snow cover around Ely is significant. Snowfall was also timed previous to long term cold events so ice thickness is probably less than normal.


I don't think ice thickness is as an important driver of ice out as much as is late season snow frequency. The snow reflects the energy of the late winter/early spring sun- when the ice is exposed (without snow) to the sun it degrades quickly, if it is blanketed it holds on."


I agree with the later. Expect the snowfall to increase, especially late spring as the battleground that has been Chicago,Des Moines,inches back
N. Chicago has more snow on the ground then many places in the N. Mn Much of the North has been in snow drought lately. It's just been too cold ( lack of moisture) for appreciable snow in the N.
Long range, I don't use "models", rather teleconnections ( I can provide a list for those "weenies" that want to see) around the globe. Majority of them show a late spring. Could change but 70% of my experience says late ice out.
02/12/2018 12:39PM
So May 10th could be 50/50 chance.
WhiteWolf
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02/12/2018 12:46PM
housty9: "So May 10th could be 50/50 chance."

I wouldn't go that far yet. Depends on entry. Sag and Gunflint (etc) might be 50/50. Right now analog years long term forcasters are using are ; 2013,2008 and even shades of 1996 among others that are warmer but a blend definitely shows a late trend.
QueticoMike
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02/12/2018 12:57PM
A few weeks ago I decided I was going to go a week later than previous years.
02/12/2018 01:32PM
Should be an interesting phenomena to watch for --- whether it suddenly warms up quick with perhaps a few rain events thrown in to make the ice go faster. Although, I trust the more seasoned opinions here that ice-out will probably be later than the average. Winter has certainly been colder overall here in the cities.
pastorjsackett
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02/12/2018 08:57PM
2013 must have been that very late ice-out year....we usually go up Memorial Day and as I recall the ice had just left and the fishing was completely crappy for us. And everyone we saw commented same.

I would not want to have another blah trip like that one! Come one spring!
The Great Outdoors
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02/12/2018 09:48PM
Not much snow in the Ely area, especially the lakes. IF we don't get much snow, there will be an early ice out (like last year) as it goes quickly if there isn't any insulation on it.
halvorsonchristopher
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02/12/2018 11:49PM
QueticoMike: "A few weeks ago I decided I was going to go a week later than previous years."
What type of trip are you pushing back?
May trout? or June walleye/smallies?

What Region you headed to?
halvorsonchristopher
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02/12/2018 11:49PM
Double post
lundojam
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02/13/2018 06:29AM
I've always wanted to icefish the opener. Maybe this will be the year.
QueticoMike
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02/13/2018 08:13AM
halvorsonchristopher: "QueticoMike: "A few weeks ago I decided I was going to go a week later than previous years."
What type of trip are you pushing back?
May trout? or June walleye/smallies?


What Region you headed to?"


I mostly fish for smallmouth bass. I think this year we might be spending more time in the Basswood area.
Canoearoo
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02/13/2018 09:10AM
The ice is 3 feet thick here in Central MN. We went ice fishing last week
HoneyGuy101
member (9)member
 
02/13/2018 12:45PM
For the first time ever I have a Spring trip planned. I have scheduled it for Memorial Week and I'm getting concerned with the weather more and more. With a late ice out like you speak of I'm getting more nervous about that trip now. I'm already more worried about wind and weather the way it is but it being cold on top of that has me concerned.
WhiteWolf
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02/13/2018 02:00PM
lundojam: "I've always wanted to icefish the opener. Maybe this will be the year."
Trout Lake. 2008. Trout Lake Resort called the DNR if you could use two lines for the opener. Response was that if you are on the ice, yes .
WhiteWolf
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02/13/2018 02:07PM
HoneyGuy101: "For the first time ever I have a Spring trip planned. I have scheduled it for Memorial Week and I'm getting concerned with the weather more and more. With a late ice out like you speak of I'm getting more nervous about that trip now. I'm already more worried about wind and weather the way it is but it being cold on top of that has me concerned."

I wouldn't be concerned about ice that late. But for the record, on June 1st, 1936 Justine Kerfoot of Gunflint Lodge walked across Gunflint Lake. 1936 had some of the greatest weather extremes in the upper Midwest that has ever been recorded.


Mn ice out records for Gunflint Lake

Cook County News Herald
halvorsonchristopher
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02/13/2018 10:39PM
HoneyGuy101: "For the first time ever I have a Spring trip planned. I have scheduled it for Memorial Week and I'm getting concerned with the weather more and more."
Nothing to worry about here! You'll be ok! Even if Ice out is LATE, it wont be that late.
halvorsonchristopher
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02/13/2018 10:41PM
QueticoMike: "halvorsonchristopher: "QueticoMike: "A few weeks ago I decided I was going to go a week later than previous years."What type of trip are you pushing back?"
I mostly fish for smallmouth bass. I think this year we might be spending more time in the Basswood area. "

Best of luck.
Are you assuming all prime time fishing windows will be a delayed? or just the Smallie sub-surface/top-water?
Pinetree
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02/15/2018 10:37PM
Unless we get a lot of snow from here on out.majority of the state has less snow than normal. If it melts I know past years many days we would beat forecasts by 10 degrees F. due to the lack of snow and brown conditions than absorbing heat.
Ice on lakes is like 22-25 inches around Brainerd and I heard like 25-30 inches up the Gunflint. But with little snow on the lakes if it melts and than plain ice absorbs more heat also. Especially when it gets a little dark color.
WhiteWolf
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02/15/2018 11:08PM
Central MN looks to have a decent chance at 6"+ snows Sun-Tues of next week. Likely just N of the Twin Cites and S of Duluth with the heaviest band as of this writing. I would post a map but it's worthless at this point for actual amounts to actual locations....
WhiteWolf
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02/18/2018 03:34AM
WhiteWolf: "Banksiana: "You models lack some important details....



Snow cover around Ely is significant. Snowfall was also timed previous to long term cold events so ice thickness is probably less than normal.



I don't think ice thickness is as an important driver of ice out as much as is late season snow frequency. The snow reflects the energy of the late winter/early spring sun- when the ice is exposed (without snow) to the sun it degrades quickly, if it is blanketed it holds on."


I agree with the later. Expect the snowfall to increase, especially late spring as the battleground that has been Chicago,Des Moines,inches back
N. Chicago has more snow on the ground then many places in the N. Mn Much of the North has been in snow drought lately. It's just been too cold ( lack of moisture) for appreciable snow in the N.
Long range, I don't use "models", rather teleconnections ( I can provide a list for those "weenies" that want to see) around the globe. Majority of them show a late spring. Could change but 70% of my experience says late ice out.
"

Not to toot my own horn-- but here it comes (the snow) for the Northland. Not only this late weekend, but for most of the medium/long range (5-7 days) in the extended. Tis' the season. for snow in the NORTH along with ice storms in Iowa. I will be somewhat surprised- with the latest info I have seen for March- if lakes are out early. March looks much like the recent late DEC- early JAN temps (adjusted for normals) to repeat itself. As mentioned- snowfall will be key as we get further into March and is impossible to forecast past 7 days. But a good snow pack is going be laid down in the next 7 days across much of MN-- likely the deepest of all season across the Northland.

Enjoy the weather- it's the only weather you got.

QueticoMike
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02/18/2018 07:45AM
halvorsonchristopher: "QueticoMike: "halvorsonchristopher: "QueticoMike: "A few weeks ago I decided I was going to go a week later than previous years."What type of trip are you pushing back?"
I mostly fish for smallmouth bass. I think this year we might be spending more time in the Basswood area. "

Best of luck.
Are you assuming all prime time fishing windows will be a delayed? or just the Smallie sub-surface/top-water?"


The last few or more years the water was still too cold for bass to move up onto the bedding areas. Hoping that by going a week later might help. We'll probably be a week late now :)
The Great Outdoors
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02/18/2018 04:10PM
We just got about 11+ inches in the Ely area which is not going to do the lakes any good for an early ice out. :(
Pinetree
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02/18/2018 04:14PM
The Great Outdoors: "We just got about 11+ inches in the Ely area which is not going to do the lakes any good for an early ice out. :("

Wow,we got zero in the Mille lacs area. We could actually use some down here. Sounds like slush time again up there?
Handycamp
member (40)member
 
02/19/2018 09:13PM
Oh, the ice out's connected to the - temperature, and the temperature's connected to the - snow pack, and the snow pack's connected to the - ice thickness, and the thickness is connected to the - historical average, and the...
02/19/2018 10:09PM
...unless it rains a lot...
arctic
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02/20/2018 09:02AM
We picked up 15 inches of snow in the past 48 hours and have 24 inches on the ground. This is about average for this time of year.
Soledad
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02/20/2018 10:02AM
The Great Outdoors: "We just got about 11+ inches in the Ely area which is not going to do the lakes any good for an early ice out. :("

It will extend the beautiful winter camping season though!
yogi59weedr
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02/20/2018 12:31PM
Handycamp.........
Bahahahaha
Pinetree
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02/20/2018 01:21PM
arctic: "We picked up 15 inches of snow in the past 48 hours and have 24 inches on the ground. This is about average for this time of year."

Wow,you really didn't have much before either.
northerncanoe
 
02/20/2018 09:48PM
I knew we were pushing it when we decided our Quetico trip would start on May 12th this year. Looking for the really early season trout.

Looks like we could be pushing the canoe across the ice, eh?

Well, we did a late trip one fall and had to break ice on the way out. So I guess we will see what happens. I do know the ice is good and thick up the Gunflint this year.

Thanks for the interesting discussion WhiteWolf.
02/21/2018 09:07AM
So are you saying my trip that has been forced into July- instead of June- might have better fishing than expected?!!!!

YES !!!!

Thanks and keep it frosty!
HoneyGuy101
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02/21/2018 09:18AM
Thank God for this website right now. Negative temperatures and fresh snow are making it difficult to believe that we'll be there in 90 days. But seriously though, I cannot wait!
Pinetree
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02/21/2018 09:26AM
This is probably less snow and ice in a normal year. I remember years like 36 inches of ice and 40 inches of snow at least in some winters.
02/21/2018 11:19AM
HoneyGuy101: "Thank God for this website right now. Negative temperatures and fresh snow are making it difficult to believe that we'll be there in 90 days. But seriously though, I cannot wait!"

I'm with you on this one! I only modestly hoping that March at this point starts to trend into above freezing days/below freezing nights so that I can tap my maple trees!
 
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