schweady: "Mocha - I think this is just a general information post. Not a contest.
"

HighnDry: "
Gunflint: May 22nd, 2018
Shagawa: May 10th, 2018

Guess away!"

Mocha: "gunflint May 11
shagawa april 27"

The Great Outdoors: "

Mocha: "gunflint May 11
shagawa april 27"

Looking bad for you Sheryl!! If we don't get some very warm weather and rain, I truly believe that the lakes will be ice covered on the opener.
The current forecast up until April 14th is not going to take the ice off.
Damn!!!!! :("

manmountain8: "Accuweather is predicting 70 in early may and upper 50's to lower 60's for the opener. If they are correct Ice should go out around April 25th."

shock: "

manmountain8: "Accuweather is predicting 70 in early may and upper 50's to lower 60's for the opener. If they are correct Ice should go out around April 25th."

things can change fast once the low's start staying above 32* But i think people who planned a trip the week after opener will run into some great lake trout fishing ;)"

TheGreatIndoors: "Starting to get nervous! A group of six registered, reserved, and invested in a trip scheduled for the opener. Leaving from Gunflint via Sag, or so we thought. I've been checking the 10-day forecast every 6 hours for the last week. Finally, things beginning to return to normal. Fingers crossed that next week is a little wetter and a little warmer than forecast.


Any suggestions for alternate entry points on the Gunflint side if things are slow to thaw?"

shock: "I would reserve a permit for the following weekend possibly the 2nd weekend after opener ."

TheGreatIndoors: "

shock: "I would reserve a permit for the following weekend possibly the 2nd weekend after opener ."

Too late, not possible! "

HighnDry: "What's your estimate for an ice-out on Shagawa (and Gunflint) given the snow depth you encountered?"

dasunt: "I made a spreadsheet today. Right now, the forecast is running two weeks behind median temperatures.


I'm getting a little worried about our planned 5/12 trip off the Echo Trail."

trekronor: "I'm a newbie (to the forum and BWCA) but I also have a weekend opener trip planned, May 12 - 15. Since it's our first time there my buddy and I decided to stay at a cabin instead of camping. I'm happy we went that route!


Hoping things warm up soon. I've been checking the forecast twice a day, but it turns out that doesn't make it any warmer ;)"

hut301: "Gunflint May 8
Shagawa April 28


I am hoping to do a trip the weekend of May 4-6 to travel as the ice breaks up. Anyone interested in joining me please message me. "

canoe212: "Getting close. The ponds along highway 20 in Iowa are just out a couple days ago."

CornellMN: "I'm going in from #38 on May 11th, so I hope the ice is out before that!"

Mjharge1: "Still planning going in at seagull lake may 17th.
Not saying I’m not still worried somewhat, but I am more positive
"

The Great Outdoors:
The warm days predicted will be undone by the night temps dropping into the 30's or cooler.
"

Tyler W: "That being said, we are experiencing a record cold April. It stands to reason that a record cold April should have a record late ice out."

Tyler W: " Here in the Metro small areas of open water are expanding slowly despite the cold temps. Sunshine has an impact even if temps are near freezing. But, with lakes covered in snow the sunshine can't even get to the ice. "

The Great Outdoors: "Cannot remember which year, 2013 or 2014, had the latest ice off date."

The Great Outdoors: "Ya gotta quit thinking with your heart, man!!"

dasunt: "I made a spreadsheet today. Right now, the forecast is running two weeks behind median temperatures.


I'm getting a little worried about our planned 5/12 trip off the Echo Trail."

WalleyeHunter24: "

dasunt: "I made a spreadsheet today. Right now, the forecast is running two weeks behind median temperatures.



I'm getting a little worried about our planned 5/12 trip off the Echo Trail."

I'm headed in the week after you, please post if you are able (or not able) to get in.


Thanks!"

WalleyeHunter24: "

dasunt: "I made a spreadsheet today. Right now, the forecast is running two weeks behind median temperatures.



I'm getting a little worried about our planned 5/12 trip off the Echo Trail."

I'm headed in the week after you, please post if you are able (or not able) to get in.


Thanks!"

TheGreatIndoors: "Another handy chart showing how temps evolved in 2014, 2017, and this year. We have some work to do. Notice how 2014 had a hard time getting up to the average high.


"

Actually this is pretty accurate to my anxiety level about the viability of my trip for EP 27 Snowbank on May 16th."

Ranger1: "


As TGO has said multiple times above, the cold nights don't help us, but this 10 day for Ely has me feeling *somewhat* encouraged. Next week shows mid to high 50's, high daily winds, and persistent sunshine. The extended forecast shows a lot of the same, take it for what it's worth.


We just might make it..."

HighnDry: "I read that as well and then pulled up the 2017 map for comparison - a world of difference but last year was a bit of an anomaly with the warm temps early."

inspector13: "
The first monitored "lake" had ice out today. Average ice out on Lake Pepin is March 31, but the winter of 1842-1843 must have been much worse than this year. Ice out was May 20th in 1843.

"

trekronor: "

inspector13: "
The first monitored "lake" had ice out today. Average ice out on Lake Pepin is March 31, but the winter of 1842-1843 must have been much worse than this year. Ice out was May 20th in 1843.


"

I just got really excited!!! Then I realized Pepin is about 300 miles south of BWCA. ..boo."

HighnDry: "

trekronor: "

inspector13: "
The first monitored "lake" had ice out today. Average ice out on Lake Pepin is March 31, but the winter of 1842-1843 must have been much worse than this year. Ice out was May 20th in 1843.



"

I just got really excited!!! Then I realized Pepin is about 300 miles south of BWCA. ..boo."

It's the first domino to fall..."

The Great Outdoors: "However, after riding around Shagawa Lake this afternoon observing the ice conditions, I will rest well knowing will enjoy the drink of your choice in a glass filled with ice from lakes in the Ely area on the fishing opener. :)"

TheGreatIndoors: "TGO, that is not comforting! We may be stuck hanging out in ELY drinking with you if the forecast doesn't pick back up.


A couple days near 70 is probably not going to cut it! Any signs of hope? I hear there is some open water on rivers in the area. Is that right?"

manmountain8: "

TheGreatIndoors: "TGO, that is not comforting! We may be stuck hanging out in ELY drinking with you if the forecast doesn't pick back up.
A couple days near 70 is probably not going to cut it! Any signs of hope? I hear there is some open water on rivers in the area. Is that right?"

Here is the Ely forecast for the last 2 weeks before the opener. April 29th to May 11th. It will only be below freezing for a grand total of 5 hours out of 336. Do you really think the ice can survive that?
High Low
68 48
66 48
68 40
67 34
70 29
57 31
59 33
58 35
60 32
58 33
64 35
63 35
65 30"

TheGreatIndoors: "The Fortune Bay Resort and Casino posted a video showing ice on Lake Vermillion has gone from 33" to 28" in a week (April 17th-24th).
Mille Lacs and another smaller local lake are the same thickness 28" and 26".
Green Lake near Minneapolis had 24" as of Sunday . Yikes. "

mvgarceau: "Clearwater Lodge off the Gunflint Trail reported 22" of ice today on Clearwater Lake. Wow. Maybe I'd better push my May 18 visit back to Memorial Day wknd!


https://instagram.com/p/BiAsmI8l8CM/"

AndyEck84: "Any chance the MN DNR ice out page is just not updated regularly? How has that Bronson lake way up north reported ice out and no one else has? "

AndyEck84: "Any chance the MN DNR ice out page is just not updated regularly? How has that Bronson lake way up north reported ice out and no one else has? "

manmountain8: "The forecast has now improved. Starting on Sunday the 29th, the overnight lows will all be above freezing, except for may 1st and 2nd, which will dip to 31 just before dawn both days. Most of the lows are above 40 until the opener when lows will dip into the lower 30's again. Highs are all in the 60's or upper 50's. There is also plenty of rain forecasted. By my calculations ice out on Vermillion should be May 9th which should be similar to rest of the BWCA.
"

Jaywalker: "I've read that lake ice primarily melts from the bottom up, driven by water warming via the green house effect just like your car in summer. The whiter the top of the lake, the less sunlight is penetrating resulting in slower melting. Looking at the Moose, Ely, and GF web cams it looks like the big parts of the lakes are still pretty white. Maybe the rain forecast for early next week will darken it, but after that a bunch of cloudy days could slow things more. Humphhh. "

rockstaranon: "I guess what I'm wondering is even if the lakes aren't completely iced out but there's enough open water from the shoreline to the ice all the way around the lake, we should still be able to make a trek by skirting around the ice, no? I guess it might limit some deeper fishing spots but honestly how deep do you want to go this early in the spring?


Have a fishing opener trip planned from Mudro to Lower Basswood Falls. Entirely small lakes and the Horse River. I would imagine the Horse River will be well thawed with high water levels by the time opener hits as well as LBF with all that moving water."

rockstaranon: Have a fishing opener trip planned from Mudro to Lower Basswood Falls. Entirely small lakes and the Horse River. I would imagine the Horse River will be well thawed with high water levels by the time opener hits as well as LBF with all that moving water."

HighnDry: "It's good to see some color on the ice-out map. "

The Great Outdoors: "You should be fine by that time.
It will be close but I wouldn't worry unless we get night time temperature drops into the 30's the closer we get to the opener."