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BlackSwanAdventures
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Seriously guys, everyone watch out around northern MN / BWCA the next two weeks. Looks like only a day or two without the chance of severe weather. Be careful and be sky aware! We will be in it with you guys. Let's all be safe.
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Atb
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We're headed out 7/8, but the forecast I looked at looks pretty calm. Where are you seeing the severe weather forecast?
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bwcadan
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I too would like to know where the severe weather forecast is coming from. I am only seeing good weather and a chance of showers during the period referenced. Either way, I will be there during part of the time frame. In the past, forecast regularly changes and some times more than once.
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emptynest56
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With apologies to Whitewolf, my amateur meteorology bent found this website and did a little investigation about a measurement called CAPE. It is a measurement of indirect potential for thunderstorms. The higher the number of CAPE, the more the potential for severe weather. Just scroll down the page to the category labeled CAPE and then over to GFS 1 degree on the animation button. It will show the dates for the loop in time. Unfortunately, it looks like MN will have some episodes of high CAPE in the next week.
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emptynest56
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sorry, here is the link gfs ready
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dicecupmaker
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Glad to have met you on Oyster last week! You are hard charged my man! Peace!
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RMinMN
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ethanscott: "BlackSwanAdventures: "Seriously guys, everyone watch out around northern MN / BWCA the next two weeks. Looks like only a day or two without the chance of severe weather. Be careful and be sky aware! We will be in it with you guys. Let's all be safe."
How bad is the weather report for 2 days from now?"
This is northern Minnesota. Predicting the weather more than 12 hours from now is an exercise in futility. This is July and the potential for a bad storm is alway there. You can choose to take a chance on it hitting where you are and go enjoy yourself or you can let the worry about bad weather overcome you and then you stay home. Your choose.
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GearJunkie
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RMinMN: "ethanscott: "BlackSwanAdventures: "Seriously guys, everyone watch out around northern MN / BWCA the next two weeks. Looks like only a day or two without the chance of severe weather. Be careful and be sky aware! We will be in it with you guys. Let's all be safe."
How bad is the weather report for 2 days from now?"
This is northern Minnesota. Predicting the weather more than 12 hours from now is an exercise in futility. This is July and the potential for a bad storm is alway there. You can choose to take a chance on it hitting where you are and go enjoy yourself or you can let the worry about bad weather overcome you and then you stay home. Your choose."
Yup. Been watching the weather for the past week. The weather has changed every days for our entry date. Was rain, then storms, then sunny, cloudy, and now back to T storms.
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egknuti
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nctry: "Had a bad storm go through a bit ago. It's nailing the BW right now 4ish AM." I was up on Oyster, it hit sometime around 2:30am Saturday morning. Torrential rain with thunder and lightning. Pretty unnerving but survived.
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WhiteWolf
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CAPE- Convective Available Potential Energy.
CAPE
A great measure of the potential strength of storms is CAPE- but CAPE is almost impossible to predict past 12 hours (and in some cases much less, and the reason I will not post maps of it past 12-24 hours are due to two main reasons--
#1- Capping of the Atmosphere. -- long story short- the atmosphere which normally cools as one ascends in height (lapse rate) becomes too warm and puts a "cap" on any potential CAPE and thus thunderstorms. Thunderstorms need a cooling environment to condense into cumulonimbus (TS) clouds and especially into super cells capable of producing tornadoes or straight line winds. Friday in IA and much of the Upper Midwest this was the case. Most times you need a triggering mechanism to offset the capping such as the approach of a cold front or the natural cooling that occurs at nighttime.
#2- Debris clouds (blow off from storms far away and or stratus). Most likely in the AM or early PM. This is probably the biggest concern with severe weather forecasters. CAPE requires the suns energy to destabilize the atmosphere. Without this max insolation- (suns energy) has left many high risk severe weather days a bust and only 6 hours out or less.
I would be skeptical of predicting severe weather for any one location past 12-24 hours based on the above factors. There are many more, but the 2 above have ruined more forecasts for severe weather outbreaks then all the others combines.
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jhb8426
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emptynest56: "sorry, here is the link gfs ready "
what link ???
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nctry
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Had a bad storm go through a bit ago. It's nailing the BW right now 4ish AM.
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drnatus
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WhiteWolf: "CAPE- Convective Available Potential Energy....."
so, in your opinion is this a pattern that will last more than a couple of days or a week? I am entering on 7/8.
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WhiteWolf
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drnatus: "WhiteWolf: "CAPE- Convective Available Potential Energy....." s
so, in your opinion is this a pattern that will last more than a couple of days or a week? I am entering on 7/8."
This time of year with peak heating (if allowed) and with tropical dewpoints , anything is possible. The potential peak heating is unavoidable but the infusion of tropical dewpoints is a little much. ( The July 99' event had dewpoints in the lower 70's across the NorthLand ). I don't have time to look ahead right now but can later today at work, but if dewpoints continue to be tropical, this time of the year is when things can get explosive in the skies.
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