Title says it all.

I doubt it.
Once the ice is out, the surface water is quickly warmed by convection from the air. Even faster if there's significant breeze. The shallows also warm quickly by absorbing much of the radiant energy of the sun.
I suspect that without ice slowing these two factors, normal seasonal H2O temps will occur, and temps will be affected by weather in normal fashion.
July is usually great for smallmouth, though :)

Assuming Walleye?
SMB & Northern are good all season long.

I’ve never noticed this all the times I’ve been there. It can affect the first week or two in June but that’s about it.

How much later will the ice be out this year?

Fisheggs: "How much later will the ice be out this year?"

And what will Wednesdays winning powerball numbers be?

That's why I avoid early season up there. I get my share of cold water fishing down here

That's why I avoid early season up there. I get my share of cold water fishing down here

Come on guys! at least give a guy a little hope. (kidding would rather have the truth) I am a poor fisherman and only get to go once or twice a year. this is the first year in a while that i have to go in July instead of June .

Oh well, will still be able to enjoy the scenery!!! And will definitely be bringing all of my food!

There is considerable difference IMO between early/ mid july and late july........at least during a typical season. We have done well early july around the 4th. Smallmouth were accessible still in shallow water but bigger walleye were at 20 to 25ft. Lakers were caught steadily trolling over 70ft in main lake basins using tail dancers.

My advice is to purchase a Deep Six crank Bait in sexy shad and just troll around. It likes that magical 20ft mark and gets there easily. Walleye snap this thing up like candy. Yes it is expensive but it will make up for lots of inexperience. It should also take some lakers if trolled mid lake.

Deep Six

Last year, I feel like the peak fishing was at the beginning of July/end of June. So there's hope :)

mastertangler: "There is considerable difference IMO between early/ mid july and late july........at least during a typical season. We have done well early july around the 4th. Smallmouth were accessible still in shallow water but bigger walleye were at 20 to 25ft. Lakers were caught steadily trolling over 70ft in main lake basins using tail dancers.


My advice is to purchase a Deep Six crank Bait in sexy shad and just troll around. It likes that magical 20ft mark and gets there easily. Walleye snap this thing up like candy. Yes it is expensive but it will make up for lots of inexperience. It should also take some lakers if trolled mid lake.

Deep Six "

Or if you don't want to take a loan out to buy some tackle just get a few deep husky jerks or tail dancers. Husky jerks are on sale now.

ice out date will have zero impact on what happens in july

The only way ice out will significantly impact fishing in July is if ice out doesn't happen until the end of June.

I will also echo the sentiment that there is a big difference between early July and end of July, fish can make some big changes in patterns during that time.

drnatus: "Come on guys! at least give a guy a little hope. (kidding would rather have the truth) I am a poor fisherman and only get to go once or twice a year."

There is hope! But don't pin your hopes on the weather. I think the difference between below average fishermen and above average fishermen is attitude. Above average fishermen know what they do makes a difference. Below average fishermen think that fishing is all luck. They sit looking at a bobber waiting for their luck to change.

Once you have the attitude (you will find fish, you can make them bite) then you just need a way to make observations. Copper tinted polarized glasses and a basic depth finder will tell you everything you need to know about habitat. Then, be impatient. Fish fast and cover water. Don't slow down until you are sure you are on top of the fish.

If you don't catch anything in an hour, change one thing. Lure, depth, location, etc. When you do catch a fish, pay attention to details (water depth, substrate, cover, lure, species, size, time of day).

Try to repeat that success until you have a pattern. Think of it like playing Clue. Instead of "Mr. Mustard, in the library with the candle stick" you come up with "walleyes, on trolled cranks, over large rocks, at dark".

Lotw: "ice out date will have zero impact on what happens in july"

I disagree. It can IMO. All depends on the weather after ice out.

Late ice out and a cold spring push hatches back into July that do affect fishing.

Mayflies being the big one.

We have gone through LaTourells to Basswood last 10 years, always start Fathers Day weekend. This question comes up frequently. Affects are significant in May, somewhat impactful in early June, and non-existent by July 4 according to the locals who watch it. I keep track of surface temp in Wind Bay each year in mid June and have seen 8 degree difference on average temps there YOY. But July is supposedly more affected by more recent weather patterns.

AmarilloJim: "

mastertangler: "There is considerable difference IMO between early/ mid july and late july........at least during a typical season. We have done well early july around the 4th. Smallmouth were accessible still in shallow water but bigger walleye were at 20 to 25ft. Lakers were caught steadily trolling over 70ft in main lake basins using tail dancers.



My advice is to purchase a Deep Six crank Bait in sexy shad and just troll around. It likes that magical 20ft mark and gets there easily. Walleye snap this thing up like candy. Yes it is expensive but it will make up for lots of inexperience. It should also take some lakers if trolled mid lake.


Deep Six "

Or if you don't want to take a loan out to buy some tackle just get a few deep husky jerks or tail dancers. Husky jerks are on sale now."

I hear ya Jim but I have been at this game long enough to know a special lure. I struggled spending the dough to pick up one to give it a go one summer in WCPP. Now I have 5 or 6. Definitely a smack'em lure. Just have a small box of kleenex along in case a pike takes it away from you.

AmarilloJim: Or if you don't want to take a loan out to buy some tackle just get a few deep husky jerks or tail dancers. Husky jerks are on sale now."

Where are they on sale right now? Thanks!

daverr: "

AmarilloJim: Or if you don't want to take a loan out to buy some tackle just get a few deep husky jerks or tail dancers. Husky jerks are on sale now."

Where are they on sale right now? Thanks!"

I just got a Cabelas mailer that said all in stock Rapalas 25% off march 30 - April 15 I believe.

I kind of look at this way, when you get a permit 5 months prior to your entry date, you are going to get what you are going to get when you get there. There's nothing I can do about it. Sure, if you have the flexibility to wait until the last minute to make your reservation, then great, you might not have to worry about whether the ice off is late and what it will do to the fishing. So be prepared to fish on all fronts. Study the weather prior to your trip and make plans on how you will attack the lakes you will be fishing. Figure out where you should be fishing for a certain species and what presentation may be best suited for the type of fish you are trying to catch in the water temps you are going to be dealt when you arrive. Message boards, outfitters and bait dealers are great resources to help you determine a plan before your outing, take advantage of their knowledge.

Huh... I got a permit for June 3rd, early because my partner was worried about mosquitos. I guess he got chewed pretty bad in late June. Whatever. I had good luck in May up there before so I’m pretty sure we will again. I never even considered ice out. I don’t think it will hurt us at that time. I can’t imagine it would in July. Other weather maybe.

We've caught smallmouth on topwater less than 2 weeks after ice out. So after seeing that take place I really never stress over fishing just after late ice out.

One thing I can guarantee you, I’m not going to stress out about it.
Cheers.

scat: "Huh... I got a permit for June 3rd, early because my partner was worried about mosquitos. I guess he got chewed pretty bad in late June. Whatever. I had good luck in May up there before so I’m pretty sure we will again. I never even considered ice out. I don’t think it will hurt us at that time. I can’t imagine it would in July. Other weather maybe."

There will be plenty of mosquitoes on June 3rd.

jamotrade: "

scat: "Huh... I got a permit for June 3rd, early because my partner was worried about mosquitos. I guess he got chewed pretty bad in late June. Whatever. I had good luck in May up there before so I’m pretty sure we will again. I never even considered ice out. I don’t think it will hurt us at that time. I can’t imagine it would in July. Other weather maybe."

There will be plenty of mosquitoes on June 3rd."

And maybe a few black flies if you are lucky :)

I never had a problem with mosquitos. If it’s cool out, they certainly are less of a nuisance. I’m thinking June 3rd it might still be cool. Black flies are cyclical, only bad on the wrong year. Again, not something that could even remotely stress me out. My partner had a bad bug trip once I guess, and he’s bringing his girlfriend on this trip. I’m confident all will be fine. It always is.

Savage Voyageur: "I’ve never noticed this all the times I’ve been there. It can affect the first week or two in June but that’s about it. "

agree , when july rolls around mother nature has a way of balancing everything out.

QueticoMike: "

jamotrade: "

scat: "Huh... I got a permit for June 3rd, early because my partner was worried about mosquitos. I guess he got chewed pretty bad in late June. Whatever. I had good luck in May up there before so I’m pretty sure we will again. I never even considered ice out. I don’t think it will hurt us at that time. I can’t imagine it would in July. Other weather maybe."

There will be plenty of mosquitoes on June 3rd."

And maybe a few black flies if you are lucky :)


"

And I'd take skeeters over black flies ANY day! Sadly between June1 and June15 we usually get plenty of both with a few horse flies, deer flies, stable flies(ankle biters), and no-see-ums thrown in for good measure. :) Last year was the first time we really suffered from no-see-ums...sucked.

I talked to Stu from the Boundary Waters Journal yesterday and he said don't be in a hurry to get up there this year. He said winter is still pretty locked in and got a hold of the area. He also mentioned that he just got back from some outdoor expo and he was talking with some fisherman that said they were still drilling 54 inches to reach water. But it sounded like these guys were from up in Canada.

Looking at the 7 day for Ely there isn't a day above 32 and on Tuesday the low is -1.