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Pinetree
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12/11/2018 12:12AM
Well in the Mille lacs area, we have about 1 inch of snow. Temps suppose to moderate some and no precip in sight. Snowblower and skiis are on standby and might just stay there.

Whitewolf can you add your secret formula and create a snow storm?

One thing we are starting to get is good ice with no snow on the lake. But word is still be careful with ice averaging 8 inches and less.
 
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WhiteWolf
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12/11/2018 12:25AM
Right now if your in the Upper Midwest and have no snow on the ground (or snow--it will likely decrease in coverage with the expected warm up for the next 10-14 days and rain in the Eastern parts) you probably going to have to wait until the week of Christmas for decent chances- other than a weak Clipper or two. The period between the 25th and the New Year does look to get more active but it can hardly get any more stale....
andym
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12/11/2018 01:30AM
Not likely here south of San Francisco. Played tennis outside today.
dicecupmaker
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12/11/2018 02:35AM
Not! Yet!!!!!! I want snow!!!
12/11/2018 07:58AM
We had a white Thanksgiving, but have no idea about Christmas!

We do need good flying weather for the 29th and the 1st, as we are going to California for the Redbox Bowl. That's all I ask.
mc2mens
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12/11/2018 08:28AM
Just a couple of inches here in the Twin Cities. But the cold weather we've been having since early November has been good for making ice on the hockey rinks in the parks. Hopefully we'll get more snow by Christmas but as Whitewolf mentioned, it looks doubtful.
ParkerMag
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12/11/2018 08:36AM
We may have snow on the ground around here Christmas day once every 12-15 years, so odds are - not likely!
Savage Voyageur
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12/11/2018 09:44AM
Three inches of snow on the ground here in the St Cloud area. I have a steep driveway and 40 people over for Christmas. My vote is to let it snow more after the holidays.
AmarilloJim
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12/11/2018 10:19AM
It's been rough down here. Have to decide whether to golf or fish. Days aren't long enough to do both. Just have to wait till April to have it all.
12/11/2018 10:43AM
About 6" to 8" around Rochester MN, looking like a white Christmas so far.
missmolly
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12/11/2018 12:06PM
No snow in Downeast Maine, but once it falls, it'll be here until April.
Gadfly
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12/11/2018 12:41PM
A little disappointed with the lack of snow in east central MN as well. I'm guessing I won't need my snowshoes when I enter the BW this weekend either. Should make for fast travel times anyway.
Pinetree
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12/11/2018 02:13PM
Gadfly: "A little disappointed with the lack of snow in east central MN as well. I'm guessing I won't need my snowshoes when I enter the BW this weekend either. Should make for fast travel times anyway. "

skiis would be great and fast.
12/11/2018 04:07PM






White here in Stillwater Minnesota. The Snowman bent over backwards to make sure of it.
LindenTree
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12/11/2018 06:09PM
I'm at my cabin on the Rez east of Itasca State Park.
We have 4 plus inches here but we always have more than surrounding areas.
Height of Land hill is 2,000 feet (a few miles north of me is the highest place in NW Minnesota) above sea level and we always gets more snow here.
arctic
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12/11/2018 08:39PM
I have 5 inches of snow on the ground at my house---below average for sure---but we'll have a white Christmas. I've never seen a brown Christmas in the 30 years I've lived up here.
Pinetree
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12/11/2018 09:34PM
arctic: "I have 5 inches of snow on the ground at my house---below average for sure---but we'll have a white Christmas. I've never seen a brown Christmas in the 30 years I've lived up here."

Artic that is quite a bit below normal for you I think.

Yeh were talking 40 degrees F. Saturday and a trace of snow in the next 10 days. Ever since I bought a snow blower we don't get as much snow anymore.
SinglePortage
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12/11/2018 10:18PM
It sounds like my first winter camping trip over new years on the gunflint might not be too cold. I was a little worried about an arctic blast coming down where the temps never climb above zero. Fingers crossed.
Pinetree
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12/11/2018 10:32PM
SinglePortage: "It sounds like my first winter camping trip over new years on the gunflint might not be too cold. I was a little worried about an arctic blast coming down where the temps never climb above zero. Fingers crossed."

Enjoy, I love winter camping and done many a January trips but now lean toward late February and March when nights are not 16 hours long. Its great anytime.

lot of brown showing
joetrain
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12/12/2018 08:40AM
This past spring we moved to North Carolina. We got 8 inches the other day. I can’t get away from that stuff.
~JOE~
smoke11
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12/13/2018 08:15AM
I live in Western North Carolina. We have 11 inches on ground but we have rain moving in so not sure it will be here when Christmas comes.
12/13/2018 09:13AM
Just a dusting on the ground here and there south of Madison. There's been snow above us and below us, but not much here.
Pinetree
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12/14/2018 04:29PM
Meltdown is occurring we have 42 degrees F. in Brainerd right now and I see it is 39 degrees F. at Sea Gull up the Gunflint road.
Boy that would be nice to be up there right now.
LindenTree
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12/14/2018 05:47PM
Supposed to be near 40 tomorrow in Detroit Lakes, some areas are starting to open back up, otherwise 2 inches left. Snow might be mostly gone after tomorrow.
Pinetree
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12/15/2018 11:22PM
mooseplums
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12/15/2018 11:24PM
47 in International Falls today....beat the old record of 44.
Here in S.Central MN we had 42...mekting weather.
Quite a bit of snow disappeared hear...i see bare patches already on my lawn
12/20/2018 12:30AM
Just walked the twenty feet or so from new house to cabin. Wow, it looks like our white Christmas is turning into an ice Christmas. Might have to wear the spikes a bit. I can’t afford any more falls.
Pinetree
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12/20/2018 09:30AM
nctry: "Just walked the twenty feet or so from new house to cabin. Wow, it looks like our white Christmas is turning into an ice Christmas. Might have to wear the spikes a bit. I can’t afford any more falls."

We got the same down here. We were like 34 degrees F. during the rain,so we got scattered slippery spots where cold ground froze it,but not to bad.
Going to get a haircut this morning. More white on my head than on the ground. I stick out like a snowshoe hare right now. keep it short,less white showing.
BuckFlicks
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12/20/2018 04:20PM
In North Texas, temps are more likely to be 60 degrees than close to freezing on Christmas. In the 46 years I've lived here, we've had one white Christmas, that was within the last 10 years. This year, it'll be close to 70 and raining.

Yuck.
Pinetree
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12/21/2018 06:38PM
Update on potential winter storm Dec. 26-27th. Brainerd area 6 inches. Hibbing- Grand Rapids and Bens house up to 10 inches.
12/21/2018 09:55PM
Pinetree: "Update on potential winter storm Dec. 26-27th. Brainerd area 6 inches. Hibbing- Grand Rapids and Bens house up to 10 inches."



Yikes! Your kidding right? I better pay attention.
But that’s after Christmas... Haha!
Edit... I looked and the statement said possible storm after Christmas but report confidence was not high. Or something like that. Haha.
Pinetree
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12/22/2018 05:07PM
nctry: "Pinetree: "Update on potential winter storm Dec. 26-27th. Brainerd area 6 inches. Hibbing- Grand Rapids and Bens house up to 10 inches."

Yikes! Your kidding right? I better pay attention.
But that’s after Christmas... Haha!
Edit... I looked and the statement said possible storm after Christmas but report confidence was not high. Or something like that. Haha."


Which way will it go? Heavy snow, wintry mixed Thursday-Friday
precipitation and strong and gusty winds are all within the realm
of possibilities, but it is too early to determine exactly where
the heaviest snow will fall at this time. Anyone with travel
interests across the region should pay close attention to the
latest weather forecasts and information over the next several
days. Maybe 5-11 inches total?

Will see if it fizzles?

WhiteWolf
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12/22/2018 11:40PM
Pinetree: "nctry: "Pinetree: "Update on potential winter storm Dec. 26-27th. Brainerd area 6 inches. Hibbing- Grand Rapids and Bens house up to 10 inches."


Yikes! Your kidding right? I better pay attention.
But that’s after Christmas... Haha!
Edit... I looked and the statement said possible storm after Christmas but report confidence was not high. Or something like that. Haha."



Which way will it go? Heavy snow, wintry mixed Thursday-Friday
precipitation and strong and gusty winds are all within the realm
of possibilities, but it is too early to determine exactly where
the heaviest snow will fall at this time. Anyone with travel
interests across the region should pay close attention to the
latest weather forecasts and information over the next several
days. Maybe 5-11 inches total? The North is due. Not saying ND gets much from this- but it's hard to get sustained JAN cold if areas to the N and NW of MN/IA/WI don't have the snowpack. But their appears to be an atmospheric phenomenon (too detailed to get into on here , but will likely be setting records) that may force some of the wildest weather (cold and precip) over the Lower 48 in mid/late to Jan and Feb that the Lower 48 has not seen in some time. Broad based- this may rival 1996 for extreme cold. That is saying something for those that remember early 1996.


Will see if it fizzles?


"


It's not going to fizzle; but will likely shift around for the heaviest snowfall. *** note the energy in question is approximately 1/2 way across the Pacific Ocean from Japan and where it's forecasted to come ashore in S.CA. *** Still over 1500 miles away from making landfall. I personally wouldn't get too excited one way or the other just yet no matter where you live for a 8+" snow event. In 48 hours or so- models will come into better agreement, or least that is what has happened in the past. If traveling- keep abreast of the weather (obviously ). The North is due. Not saying ND gets much from this- but it's hard to get sustained JAN cold if areas to the N and NW of MN/IA/WI don't have the snowpack. But their appears to be an atmospheric phenomenon (too detailed to get into on here , but will likely be setting records) that may force some of the wildest weather (cold and precip) over the Lower 48 in mid/late to Jan and Feb that the Lower 48 has not seen in some time. Broad based- this may rival 1996 for extreme cold. That is saying something for those that remember early 1996. Not calling for that-- (no one forecast for -60F in Tower,MN) but the potential is on the table for wide spread bitter cold- especially if Mother Nature lays down a good snow pack in the next 7-14 days.
Pinetree
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12/24/2018 04:58PM
Two days later now and still talking 6-13 inches in many areas. Amazing they talked about this storm 8 days ago getting cranked up way out in the pacific and the up bringing of moisture from the south.
Merry Christmas.
12/24/2018 10:09PM
Pinetree: "Two days later now and still talking 6-13 inches in many areas. Amazing they talked about this storm 8 days ago getting cranked up way out in the pacific and the up bringing of moisture from the south.
Merry Christmas."




It’ll be a very white New Years... WW, looking forward to a real winter... old Steve Cannon on WCCO radio used to refer what we’ve been having to whimpy weather.
Should have heat, water and electricity pretty much going in two weeks...
lindylair
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12/25/2018 11:02AM
White Wolf, love to hear more about that phenomenon you spoke of...
Pinetree
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12/25/2018 11:16AM
lindylair: "White Wolf, love to hear more about that phenomenon you spoke of..."

It sounded like the good old days-scary.
Pinetree
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12/25/2018 12:43PM
nctry: " I thought we’d be whiter across the board... "

Actually could rake the leaves in my yard today if I wanted to.
WhiteWolf
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12/26/2018 04:06AM
lindylair: "White Wolf, love to hear more about that phenomenon you spoke of..."


Since someone asked. :O)

The deal I'am talking about is called Sudden Straospheric Warming (SSW). Stratospheric warming

I must add that the wiki article did very little to get into the brass tacks of why when the upper regions of the atmosphere above the poles "warm"-- and, how does it cause the lower portions to cool-- and especially spread this cold out in many directions? When then the upper atmosphere(s) near the polar region ( we are talking the top 1% of the atmosphere- the 10MB level-- remember surface is roughly 1000MB) ) (usually -40 to 70C) in the winter warms dramatically to temps well above 0C ) - it changes the pressure tendencies in the air aloft and forces colder (much colder) air down into the lower atmosphere. That is a fact. What is not known is exactly what direction this SSW will cause the cold air to spill from the pole? In the NH- will it mostly spill into Siberia and Northern Russia or mainly into AK and Northern Canada? One can't forecast that until about 2 weeks out. Siberia of late has seen the brunt of the SSW that occurred earlier this month but a stronger one, near record, has occurred in the past week or so, Many expect this one to shift to the other side (into AK/CAN Arctic and bleed south.)With a lag of 10-17 days- one can say mid Jan upon delivery. BUt- the amount of cold air that can be delivered to any one region is dependent on distance from cold air source (A) and amount of snow cover between those sources (B). -- or (C) snow cover itself that makes it's own cold air. That is why this current winter event ( and others in the next 10 days or so) is crucial in the future, for future winter events (and sustained snow cover) further S and sustained Cold. (much like winter in a typical fashion "works". The SSW works the same way- just at the upper 1% of the atmosphere than "bleeds" down. The above is just a "101" on how it works, but is best for here. Many , if not most, of the Upper Midwests classic brutal cold spells' start from SSW in the upper atmosphere above the N Pole 2-3 weeks beforehand. The severity depends on snowpack on the ground between the Arctic and Upper Midwest. Plus some other things that are too detailed for this post. Many in this long range field refer to a SSW that spills cold air down into the CAN and the Lower 48 as a "rubber band effect" -- that when it snaps- it's snaps big time. Or can- depending on snow cover/ length of solar/nights etc. Last year we had SSW that occurred in early/mid March that made April very cold/snowy- but not as cold as if one had happened in early JAN everything being = which it never is. All in all- major teleconnections across the globe point to late Jan and Feb being the coldest months - relative to normal - being the "coldest/snowiest" months of the upcoming time frame. What is interesting is that most cold/snowy NOV's (upper Midwest) don't show a correlation to the same thing in D/J/F --- rather the opposite, Especially Dec- but if that following DEC is warm/less snowy, analogs show Jan or Feb to be very wintry. (again a lot of things involved and one cannot say just one "thing" led to the other".

The weather at the surface has so many things going on that cause it. Atmosphere/aloft is probably #1 then followed by ground conditions/ lower atmosphere among many other "things". It just that we live at the surface and rarely look to the "above" for future weather. Many of the computer models that weather folk "look at" are just starting to incorporate this upper 1% of the atmosphere into their computations , and if so, still learning, for the upper 1% is highly unmeasured but crucial for long term weather in the 2-3 week time frame, if not longer.

old_salt
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12/26/2018 11:55AM
Probably too soon to know for sure. It’s a year away.
 
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