BWCA Wicked Cold Boundary Waters Winter Camping and Activities
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01/18/2019 07:40PM   (Thread Older Than 3 Years)
Posting this here for the hardier bunch. Next wkend and potentially onward looks wicked cold. Something i haven't seen guidance ever show in 20+ years. Confidence level in this on a scale of 1 to 10 is a 7.
 
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01/18/2019 08:13PM  
You mean starting one week from today??
01/18/2019 08:32PM  
26th through the 29th-- maybe longer.
01/18/2019 09:23PM  
Terrific. I'll be camped out in my tent and helping out at one of the Beargrease checkpoints. Glad I sewed myself a nice cozy new pair of mittens last month!
01/19/2019 05:20AM  
My thoughts of the next month or so .. (of course there will be warm days ; but on the whole the brunt of winter is coming, ozzy sums it up very well -SnowBlind
-36F in Ely as I write--- the next 10-15 days have the chance to see -50F.

What you get and what you see
Things that don't come easily
Feeling happy in my vein
Icicles within my brain
Something blowing in my head
Winter's ice, it soon will spread
Death would freeze my very soul
Makes me happy, makes me cold
My eyes are blind but I can see
The snowflakes glisten on the tree
The sun no longer sets me free
I feel there's no place freezing me
Let the winter sun shine on
Let me feel the frost of dawn
Fill my dreams with flakes of snow
Soon I'll feel the chilling glow
whitecedar
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01/19/2019 09:05PM  
White Wolf: Earlier this Fall you mentioned the chance of severe cold late January early February, once again you allude to this occurring. When you have some time could you elaborate about your forecast?
Thanks!
01/20/2019 04:07AM  
whitecedar: "White Wolf: Earlier this Fall you mentioned the chance of severe cold late January early February, once again you allude to this occurring. When you have some time could you elaborate about your forecast?
Thanks!"


I will later today. And the why's (what got us to this point even when it was mild - though to be honest , I didn't see it being as mild for as long as it was) before the obvious. When one looks at the past several months they will generally see the period from early Oct to early Dec rather cold to the avg's - then early Dec to mid Jan very warm and many expect the period from mid Jan to early March to again be very cold compared to the avg's. In a nut a 60 day cold period followed by 35 day warm period and followed by a another 50+ extended cold period (to avgs).
No time now to elaborate further, but I will go into more detail later on why this happening--- but the wind chill in ELY is -54F as of 4:15AM. (Old school before the NWS redid the wind chill in 2001 would push this close to -70F). Any slush on area lakes should have taken a serious hardening up. One of coldest wind chills I have seen in some time in the lower 48 outside elevation in the Mtns.
Guest Paddler
  
01/21/2019 06:57PM  
WhiteWolf: "
whitecedar: "White Wolf: Earlier this Fall you mentioned the chance of severe cold late January early February, once again you allude to this occurring. When you have some time could you elaborate about your forecast?
Thanks!"



I will later today. And the why's (what got us to this point even when it was mild - though to be honest , I didn't see it being as mild for as long as it was) before the obvious. When one looks at the past several months they will generally see the period from early Oct to early Dec rather cold to the avg's - then early Dec to mid Jan very warm and many expect the period from mid Jan to early March to again be very cold compared to the avg's. In a nut a 60 day cold period followed by 35 day warm period and followed by a another 50+ extended cold period (to avgs).
No time now to elaborate further, but I will go into more detail later on why this happening--- but the wind chill in ELY is -54F as of 4:15AM. (Old school before the NWS redid the wind chill in 2001 would push this close to -70F). Any slush on area lakes should have taken a serious hardening up. One of coldest wind chills I have seen in some time in the lower 48 outside elevation in the Mtns. "


What do you think March will look like?

What do you think March will look like.
fsupp
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01/22/2019 12:21PM  
WhiteWolf: "
whitecedar: "White Wolf: Earlier this Fall you mentioned the chance of severe cold late January early February, once again you allude to this occurring. When you have some time could you elaborate about your forecast?
Thanks!"



I will later today. And the why's (what got us to this point even when it was mild - though to be honest , I didn't see it being as mild for as long as it was) before the obvious. When one looks at the past several months they will generally see the period from early Oct to early Dec rather cold to the avg's - then early Dec to mid Jan very warm and many expect the period from mid Jan to early March to again be very cold compared to the avg's. In a nut a 60 day cold period followed by 35 day warm period and followed by a another 50+ extended cold period (to avgs).
No time now to elaborate further, but I will go into more detail later on why this happening--- but the wind chill in ELY is -54F as of 4:15AM. (Old school before the NWS redid the wind chill in 2001 would push this close to -70F). Any slush on area lakes should have taken a serious hardening up. One of coldest wind chills I have seen in some time in the lower 48 outside elevation in the Mtns. "


WhiteWolf, would you mind sharing your temperature projections for this weekend in and around Ely? Weather.gov predicts lows no lower than -28, but the Weather Service has been underestimating the current cold snap. Thanks.
01/22/2019 10:07PM  
fsupp: "
WhiteWolf: "
whitecedar: "White Wolf: Earlier this Fall you mentioned the chance of severe cold late January early February, once again you allude to this occurring. When you have some time could you elaborate about your forecast?
Thanks!"




I will later today. And the why's (what got us to this point even when it was mild - though to be honest , I didn't see it being as mild for as long as it was) before the obvious. When one looks at the past several months they will generally see the period from early Oct to early Dec rather cold to the avg's - then early Dec to mid Jan very warm and many expect the period from mid Jan to early March to again be very cold compared to the avg's. In a nut a 60 day cold period followed by 35 day warm period and followed by a another 50+ extended cold period (to avgs).
No time now to elaborate further, but I will go into more detail later on why this happening--- but the wind chill in ELY is -54F as of 4:15AM. (Old school before the NWS redid the wind chill in 2001 would push this close to -70F). Any slush on area lakes should have taken a serious hardening up. One of coldest wind chills I have seen in some time in the lower 48 outside elevation in the Mtns. "



WhiteWolf, would you mind sharing your temperature projections for this weekend in and around Ely? Weather.gov predicts lows no lower than -28, but the Weather Service has been underestimating the current cold snap. Thanks."


You know you get low spots like on a lake you may be able to subtract another 10 degrees F.
01/25/2019 06:58AM  
WhiteWolf, would you mind sharing your temperature projections for this weekend in and around Ely? Weather.gov predicts lows no lower than -28, but the Weather Service has been underestimating the current cold snap. Thanks.

also remember that as a forecaster gets closer to the time frame being forecasted - the easier it gets to believe absurdly cold/warm temps. That is why you see things adjusted (sometimes greatly) the closer you get to the time frame in question. 5-7 day forecasts by NOAA - will use trends , not exactly raw #'s spit out by model guidance which is actually smart as at that range (they expertise is not long range) things can change fast and they actually rely more on climo at the 6-7 day range than anything else. This upcoming cold snap (especially next week) is a little different in that it's basically Controlling the weather in such a way it's impossible not to notice it a week out.

Without local knowledge and little forecasting skill in that area for winter I venture the following based on what I do for "other areas"-- Friday night into Sat Am - (in and around Ely is tough) but here is a best guess - -26F to -34. A slight breeze from the SW. Sat night into Sun AM-- -32F to -38F - nearly calm winds.

01/26/2019 12:27AM  
Well that was a bust. Allready -36F in Ely with a dewpoint -45F. Should make -40F unless the wind starts (currently calm) or clouds move in.
01/26/2019 06:12AM  
Above i mentioned the similarities this coming air mass has to the 1996' record blast- here is the NWS in Minneapolis this morning in their Area Forecast Discussion- *** I still think this hits WI harder than MN) ***

Now onto the cold. The GFS ( American Model) has not wavered from its depiction of
-40C air at H85 ( 1 mile up) arriving Tuesday night. This would be consistent
with the Feb 1st-2nd, 1996 event, which many likely remember as
bringing record-setting cold to parts of Minnesota. The ECMWF (Euro model) and
NAM (North American short range) are "warmer," and seemingly a tad more realistic. Keep in
mind that "warmer" in this scenario still translates to lows in
the -25F to -30F range and highs from -10F to -20F on Wednesday.
Which while extremely cold would not quite be record-setting. One
element this event does look to have over the 1996 event is more
wind. Tuesday night-Wednesday we look to have at least a 10-15
mph breeze, which will make for wind chills from -40F to -55F,
solidly into warning criteria range. Wednesday night into
Thursday we lose some wind as the surface high pressure settles
in, but we should still have 5-10 mph winds with which to
contend, yielding wind chills in the ballpark of -35F to -50F.
01/26/2019 07:00AM  
: "
WhiteWolf: "
whitecedar: "White Wolf: Earlier this Fall you mentioned the chance of severe cold late January early February, once again you allude to this occurring. When you have some time could you elaborate about your forecast?
Thanks!"




I will later today. And the why's (what got us to this point even when it was mild - though to be honest , I didn't see it being as mild for as long as it was) before the obvious. When one looks at the past several months they will generally see the period from early Oct to early Dec rather cold to the avg's - then early Dec to mid Jan very warm and many expect the period from mid Jan to early March to again be very cold compared to the avg's. In a nut a 60 day cold period followed by 35 day warm period and followed by a another 50+ extended cold period (to avgs).
No time now to elaborate further, but I will go into more detail later on why this happening--- but the wind chill in ELY is -54F as of 4:15AM. (Old school before the NWS redid the wind chill in 2001 would push this close to -70F). Any slush on area lakes should have taken a serious hardening up. One of coldest wind chills I have seen in some time in the lower 48 outside elevation in the Mtns. "



What do you think March will look like?


What do you think March will look like."


If one looks back since OCT - (the cooler seasons have a much different look to jet streams and storm wavelengths than the warm months) when some cards were laid down by Mother Nature - most locations in the Upper Midwest saw the period from OCT 10 to DEC 10th quite cold. The period from Dec 11th to about Jan 12th was quite warm. I'd expect a similar 60 day period from Jan 13th through about the middle of March of similar deviations below normal that were seen from Oct 10 to the DEC 10th. Of course that doesn't mean you can't have several 3-5 day warm stretchs in their some place. In short- I expect the period from this writing - up until the middle of March or so - to be below the 30 year averaged mean temps..
01/27/2019 03:50PM  
I survived winter camping in a CCS hot tent, at -13.

I think I still have PTSD from that trip. I'm not worthy anymore!
01/27/2019 04:12PM  
One thing that I forgot to mention is that all classic Arctic Outbreaks almost always have well above temps within 3-4 days AFTER the coldest day. Sometimes it cycles - but not as much (as cold) as the first set up. But do not expect FEB to be like the first few days of the month which at this time appear to be a respite of warmth in a sea of cold for the Upper Midwest.
 
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