BWCA Ice Out Contest Boundary Waters Listening Point - General Discussion
Chat Rooms (0 Chatting)  |  Search  |   Login/Join
* For the benefit of the community, commercial posting is not allowed.
Boundary Waters Quetico Forum
   Listening Point - General Discussion
      Ice Out Contest     
 Forum Sponsor

Author

Text

03/19/2019 08:06PM   (Thread Older Than 3 Years)
It's not really a contest. Those who are interested can test their ability to forecast ice-out dates for two significant lakes in the BWCA. If memory serves, Shagawa is relatively muddy-bottomed and shallow in comparision to the deep, granite-lined Gunflint Lake. Their different characteristics translate into different ice-out dates.

Here's the game -- Choose your likely ice-out date for each of these lakes.

We need two good-hearted souls to act as verifiers for ice-out on these lakes. I'll arbitrarily say that a lake needs to be 90% free of ice (if someone has a better metric, I'm open to accepting that for our contest).

I'll offer three bungey-dealy bobs for whomever wins Shagawa or a flying moose sticker from this site. If anyone feels like chipping in an "incentive" for Gunflint, feel free :)
 
      Print Top Bottom Previous Next
03/19/2019 08:13PM  
My guesses:

Shagawa - April 22nd

Gunflint - May 6th
 
03/20/2019 06:19AM  
Shagwa: May 1
Gunflint: April 28
 
schweady
distinguished member(8070)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
  
03/20/2019 07:53AM  
Shagawa - April 28
Gunflint - May 2
 
schweady
distinguished member(8070)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
  
03/20/2019 07:53AM  
oops - dbl post
 
Selfsuffi
distinguished member (276)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
  
03/20/2019 10:09AM  

Shagawa- - April 25th
Gunflint - May 3rd
 
Stumpy
distinguished member(2152)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
  
03/20/2019 01:38PM  
Shagawa.....May 3
Gunflint......May 8
 
03/20/2019 01:46PM  
if someone knows how to contact trailrat perhaps he'd be the voice of gunflint. he lives about 2 miles from gunflint lake.
 
03/21/2019 12:18PM  
Shagwa: April 27
Gunflint: May 10
 
BearBurrito
distinguished member(979)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
  
03/21/2019 12:32PM  
Shagawa: April 23
Gunflint: May 5
 
03/21/2019 02:34PM  
May 4 Gunflint,Shagawa April 22
 
The Great Outdoors
distinguished member(5592)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
  
03/21/2019 05:06PM  
Shagawa Lake - April 20th
Gunflint Lake - April 30th
 
carmike
distinguished member(1721)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
  
03/21/2019 07:52PM  
Shagawa -- April 26th

Gunflint -- May 1
 
03/21/2019 09:09PM  
Good guesses so far. I can see a couple trends emerging :) We still need a verifier or two for each lake.....
 
chefcycle
member (14)member
  
03/21/2019 10:34PM  
Shagawa April 24th
Gunflint may the 4th :)
 
03/22/2019 01:41PM  
Shagawa - May 4
Gunflint - May 8
 
The Great Outdoors
distinguished member(5592)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
  
03/22/2019 03:36PM  
HighnDry: "Good guesses so far. I can see a couple trends emerging :) We still need a verifier or two for each lake....."


I can notify the forum when Shagawa Lake is ice free.
(Ice free means a person can drive a boat the length of the lake without much effort.)
 
03/22/2019 05:07PM  
Shagawa - April 29
Gunflint - May 9
 
03/22/2019 08:21PM  
The Great Outdoors: "
HighnDry: "Good guesses so far. I can see a couple trends emerging :) We still need a verifier or two for each lake....."



I can notify the forum when Shagawa Lake is ice free.
(Ice free means a person can drive a boat the length of the lake without much effort.)"


Works for me! Thanks!
 
03/23/2019 08:56PM  
Shagawa: April 17th

Gunflint: April 26th

Tony
 
AdamXChicago
distinguished member(1175)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
  
03/24/2019 01:18PM  
Shagawa: April 27

Gunflint: May 2
 
03/24/2019 01:36PM  
Hey folks,
Please make sure that when you put up your projected dates that they do not duplicate someone else's dates. For clarity, here's what I'm tracking so far from the list and the number of times that each date has been guessed. If your dates come later than a previous poster, please just edit your post to choose a new, unique date for that lake.

Shagawa
April 17
April 20
April 22 (2)
April 23
April 24
April 25
April 26
April 27 (2)
April 29
May 1
May 3
May 4
Gunflint
April 26
April 30
May 1
May 2
May 3
May 4 (2)
May 5
May 6
May 8 (2)
May 9
May 10

I think that this tracking is accurate, but please have a look and edit as necessary. Thanks!
 
03/24/2019 05:06PM  
Amost impossible not to duplicate one of the dates and still want to get in the contest.

It looks like a earlier than normal ice out shaping up. Temps running about 10 degrees above normal. Now those who can figure out total BTU your in good shape.
 
03/24/2019 06:47PM  
Was wondering about duplicate dates as well. Here is my guess.

Shagwa, May 2nd.
Gunflint May 12

If a duplicate date wins, do you split the Bungee Dealee Bobs down the middle, the Bunge Dealee Bobs might fare ok, but split the Moose in half, I doubt it would fly very well. :-)
 
03/24/2019 08:01PM  
Ha ha! I don't know. It probably goes to the first guess posted --- but far be it for me to impose rules on this bunch,. We're explorers dammit, not conformists :)
 
03/24/2019 08:13PM  
bfurlow: "Shagawa - May 4
Gunflint - May 8 "

I will change my Gunflint date to May 7 if it removes a conflict.
 
03/24/2019 08:36PM  
Suggestion: Allow duplicate dates, but require an ice out time (ie, 3pm).
 
Stumpy
distinguished member(2152)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
  
03/25/2019 02:45PM  
bfurlow: "
bfurlow: "Shagawa - May 4
Gunflint - May 8 "

I will change my Gunflint date to May 7 if it removes a conflict."


Thanks, but it didn't bother me...... Great minds ;)
 
03/27/2019 06:08AM  
HighnDry: "My guesses:


Shagawa - April 22nd


Gunflint - May 6th"




Can you’ve more specific? What time? Haha. You’ll be close...
 
03/27/2019 08:17AM  
HighnDry: "Good guesses so far. I can see a couple trends emerging :) We still need a verifier or two for each lake....."


you could call John, the new owner of Gunflint Lodge, he is a member on this site, perhaps he would verify
 
ledhead
member (34)member
  
03/27/2019 05:59PM  
Shagawa - April 24
Gunflint - May 2
 
03/27/2019 09:09PM  
nctry: "
HighnDry: "My guesses:



Shagawa - April 22nd



Gunflint - May 6th"




Can you’ve more specific? What time? Haha. You’ll be close..."


3:22PM and 4:01PM, respectively :) :)
 
03/27/2019 09:10PM  
Mocha: "
HighnDry: "Good guesses so far. I can see a couple trends emerging :) We still need a verifier or two for each lake....."



you could call John, the new owner of Gunflint Lodge, he is a member on this site, perhaps he would verify"


Do you know his screen name by any chance? I could PM him through this site. I'm out most days at this time of year and probably won't be able to get in touch by phone. Good suggestion, thanks Mocha!
 
03/28/2019 10:56AM  
ithought i did but can't find it. you can reach him at 1-800-fat-deal (no kidding). he is the owner so he's up early and late. his name is john fredricksen. sometimes uses fred in names.
 
03/28/2019 08:35PM  
Thanks! I'll try to get a hold of him.
 
The Great Outdoors
distinguished member(5592)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
  
04/02/2019 04:14PM  
Bumping this up, getting lost in the shuffle! :)
 
04/12/2019 12:39PM  
bump
 
04/14/2019 03:18AM  
triple bump
 
Jamie B.
Guest Paddler
  
04/16/2019 08:44PM  
Today was nice and warm out wondering how the ice looks!
 
04/16/2019 08:54PM  
Jamie B.: "Today was nice and warm out wondering how the ice looks!"
Like this.
 
04/19/2019 01:39AM  
I'm watching the ice-out maps in MN all the way down here from Melbourne, VIC. It's a long story. I'll be back though by the end of this month. Ice-out is slowly moving north and may even reach nctry's place soon! :)
 
04/19/2019 07:16AM  
We have our first iceout lake in Brainerd area. Yes a small lake. But it has begun.
 
04/21/2019 07:41PM  
anyone keeping track of this?
 
carmike
distinguished member(1721)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
  
04/28/2019 11:32PM  
Bump to the top.

Who won?!?
 
schweady
distinguished member(8070)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
  
04/29/2019 01:45PM  
Saw a FB post that Shagawa went out today. Confirmation?
 
The Great Outdoors
distinguished member(5592)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
  
04/29/2019 01:57PM  
schweady: "Saw a FB post that Shagawa went out today. Confirmation?"

It was actually considered ice out on Saturday night by Bob Cary, which was when a boat could travel east to west without any problem.
A few ice flows yesterday about noon, totally ice free today.
With this said, and by contest rules used from the past, Saturday the 27th about 5 pm could be considered the winner.
 
The Great Outdoors
distinguished member(5592)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
  
04/29/2019 02:01PM  
Looks as though AdamXChicago and Kelso both predicted the 27th of April, so they will be co-winners!!
Congratulations!!! :)
 
04/29/2019 02:07PM  
Cool! Virtual congratulatory handshake to AdamXChicago. Gunflint is still locked in?
 
carmike
distinguished member(1721)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
  
04/30/2019 10:32PM  
Drat. Missed it by a day!

I'm guessing the split decision means there are no runner-up prizes...
 
05/01/2019 07:17AM  
The Great Outdoors: "
schweady: "Saw a FB post that Shagawa went out today. Confirmation?"

It was actually considered ice out on Saturday night by Bob Cary, which was when a boat could travel east to west without any problem.
A few ice flows yesterday about noon, totally ice free today.
With this said, and by contest rules used from the past, Saturday the 27th about 5 pm could be considered the winner.
"


Thanks for monitoring this TGO. I've been traveling this past month and haven't really been able to follow this. Does anyone have any intel on Gunflint? I never had a chance to contact the member that Mocha suggested.
 
05/01/2019 07:53AM  
Lot of ice on Gunflint lake still
 
05/01/2019 11:03PM  
Thanks Pinetree!
 
Basspro69
distinguished member(14142)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished membermaster membermaster member
  
05/02/2019 08:00PM  
The Great Outdoors: "Looks as though AdamXChicago and Kelso both predicted the 27th of April, so they will be co-winners!!
Congratulations!!! :)"
Congrats guys !
 
05/08/2019 07:27AM  
On 5/7, Heston's Lodge reported on Facebook that there's still 6 inches of ice on Gunflint.
 
05/08/2019 12:00PM  
I hope the snow tonight is Mother Nature getting it out of her system before the weekend.
 
05/08/2019 12:06PM  
nctry: "I hope the snow tonight is Mother Nature getting it out of her system before the weekend."


All I know down my way it is light rain and about 42 degrees and it is going to last all night maybe snow after 11PM. Fishing will be terrible this weekend if you plan on going.
 
05/08/2019 09:16PM  
Pinetree: "
nctry: "I hope the snow tonight is Mother Nature getting it out of her system before the weekend."



All I know down my way it is light rain and about 42 degrees and it is going to last all night maybe snow after 11PM. Fishing will be terrible this weekend if you plan on going."


I still wish I was up there though! :)
 
05/15/2019 08:44AM  
So who won?
 
inspector13
distinguished member(4169)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
  
05/17/2019 01:01PM  
Kelso: "So who won?"

It looks like interest with this contest froze out with the lingering cold.

But I figure you won with five-days from the reported ice out of Gunflint Lake. MNLindsey and LindenTree were both off by eight-days between both lakes.

 
05/19/2019 09:43AM  
I've been working a ton as of late, so I haven't kept up with this as much as I would have liked....but, it looks like LindenTree won for Gunflint with a guess of May 12. That's the DNR's official ice-out date for that lake. Congrats LindenTree!

I think a couple folks are winners for Shagawa, message me with your addresses so that I can get your BDBs out to you via mail....happy paddling all, I look forward to seeing you all out on the water (that goes for you too Ben! :)
 
05/19/2019 10:30AM  
Yippie, I'm going to Disneyland.
Well maybe the BW but close enough.

I'll PM you HND.
 
      Print Top Bottom Previous Next
Listening Point - General Discussion Sponsor:
Tuscarora Lodge & Canoe Outfitters