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Boundary Waters Quetico Forum Listening Point - General Discussion Ice Out Contest |
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03/19/2019 08:06PM (Thread Older Than 3 Years)
It's not really a contest. Those who are interested can test their ability to forecast ice-out dates for two significant lakes in the BWCA. If memory serves, Shagawa is relatively muddy-bottomed and shallow in comparision to the deep, granite-lined Gunflint Lake. Their different characteristics translate into different ice-out dates.
Here's the game -- Choose your likely ice-out date for each of these lakes.
We need two good-hearted souls to act as verifiers for ice-out on these lakes. I'll arbitrarily say that a lake needs to be 90% free of ice (if someone has a better metric, I'm open to accepting that for our contest).
I'll offer three bungey-dealy bobs for whomever wins Shagawa or a flying moose sticker from this site. If anyone feels like chipping in an "incentive" for Gunflint, feel free :)
Here's the game -- Choose your likely ice-out date for each of these lakes.
We need two good-hearted souls to act as verifiers for ice-out on these lakes. I'll arbitrarily say that a lake needs to be 90% free of ice (if someone has a better metric, I'm open to accepting that for our contest).
I'll offer three bungey-dealy bobs for whomever wins Shagawa or a flying moose sticker from this site. If anyone feels like chipping in an "incentive" for Gunflint, feel free :)
"It is hard to fail, but it is worse never to have tried to succeed.”
03/22/2019 03:36PM
HighnDry: "Good guesses so far. I can see a couple trends emerging :) We still need a verifier or two for each lake....."
I can notify the forum when Shagawa Lake is ice free.
(Ice free means a person can drive a boat the length of the lake without much effort.)
https://www.facebook.com/pages/Great-Outdoors-Bait-Tackle/1606420532911075?skip_nax_wizard=true
03/22/2019 08:21PM
The Great Outdoors: "HighnDry: "Good guesses so far. I can see a couple trends emerging :) We still need a verifier or two for each lake....."
I can notify the forum when Shagawa Lake is ice free.
(Ice free means a person can drive a boat the length of the lake without much effort.)"
Works for me! Thanks!
"It is hard to fail, but it is worse never to have tried to succeed.”
03/24/2019 01:36PM
Hey folks,
Please make sure that when you put up your projected dates that they do not duplicate someone else's dates. For clarity, here's what I'm tracking so far from the list and the number of times that each date has been guessed. If your dates come later than a previous poster, please just edit your post to choose a new, unique date for that lake.
Shagawa
April 17
April 20
April 22 (2)
April 23
April 24
April 25
April 26
April 27 (2)
April 29
May 1
May 3
May 4
Gunflint
April 26
April 30
May 1
May 2
May 3
May 4 (2)
May 5
May 6
May 8 (2)
May 9
May 10
I think that this tracking is accurate, but please have a look and edit as necessary. Thanks!
Please make sure that when you put up your projected dates that they do not duplicate someone else's dates. For clarity, here's what I'm tracking so far from the list and the number of times that each date has been guessed. If your dates come later than a previous poster, please just edit your post to choose a new, unique date for that lake.
Shagawa
April 17
April 20
April 22 (2)
April 23
April 24
April 25
April 26
April 27 (2)
April 29
May 1
May 3
May 4
Gunflint
April 26
April 30
May 1
May 2
May 3
May 4 (2)
May 5
May 6
May 8 (2)
May 9
May 10
I think that this tracking is accurate, but please have a look and edit as necessary. Thanks!
"It is hard to fail, but it is worse never to have tried to succeed.”
03/24/2019 05:06PM
Amost impossible not to duplicate one of the dates and still want to get in the contest.
It looks like a earlier than normal ice out shaping up. Temps running about 10 degrees above normal. Now those who can figure out total BTU your in good shape.
It looks like a earlier than normal ice out shaping up. Temps running about 10 degrees above normal. Now those who can figure out total BTU your in good shape.
03/24/2019 06:47PM
Was wondering about duplicate dates as well. Here is my guess.
Shagwa, May 2nd.
Gunflint May 12
If a duplicate date wins, do you split the Bungee Dealee Bobs down the middle, the Bunge Dealee Bobs might fare ok, but split the Moose in half, I doubt it would fly very well. :-)
Shagwa, May 2nd.
Gunflint May 12
If a duplicate date wins, do you split the Bungee Dealee Bobs down the middle, the Bunge Dealee Bobs might fare ok, but split the Moose in half, I doubt it would fly very well. :-)
May the rivers be crooked and winding, and your portages lonesome, leading to the most amazing view.
03/24/2019 08:01PM
Ha ha! I don't know. It probably goes to the first guess posted --- but far be it for me to impose rules on this bunch,. We're explorers dammit, not conformists :)
"It is hard to fail, but it is worse never to have tried to succeed.”
03/25/2019 02:45PM
bfurlow: "bfurlow: "Shagawa - May 4
Gunflint - May 8 "
I will change my Gunflint date to May 7 if it removes a conflict."
Thanks, but it didn't bother me...... Great minds ;)
As a dog returneth to his vomit, so a fool returneth to his folly
03/27/2019 09:09PM
nctry: "HighnDry: "My guesses:
Shagawa - April 22nd
Gunflint - May 6th"
Can you’ve more specific? What time? Haha. You’ll be close..."
3:22PM and 4:01PM, respectively :) :)
"It is hard to fail, but it is worse never to have tried to succeed.”
03/27/2019 09:10PM
Mocha: "HighnDry: "Good guesses so far. I can see a couple trends emerging :) We still need a verifier or two for each lake....."
you could call John, the new owner of Gunflint Lodge, he is a member on this site, perhaps he would verify"
Do you know his screen name by any chance? I could PM him through this site. I'm out most days at this time of year and probably won't be able to get in touch by phone. Good suggestion, thanks Mocha!
"It is hard to fail, but it is worse never to have tried to succeed.”
04/19/2019 01:39AM
I'm watching the ice-out maps in MN all the way down here from Melbourne, VIC. It's a long story. I'll be back though by the end of this month. Ice-out is slowly moving north and may even reach nctry's place soon! :)
"It is hard to fail, but it is worse never to have tried to succeed.”
04/29/2019 01:57PM
schweady: "Saw a FB post that Shagawa went out today. Confirmation?"
It was actually considered ice out on Saturday night by Bob Cary, which was when a boat could travel east to west without any problem.
A few ice flows yesterday about noon, totally ice free today.
With this said, and by contest rules used from the past, Saturday the 27th about 5 pm could be considered the winner.
https://www.facebook.com/pages/Great-Outdoors-Bait-Tackle/1606420532911075?skip_nax_wizard=true
05/01/2019 07:17AM
The Great Outdoors: "schweady: "Saw a FB post that Shagawa went out today. Confirmation?"
It was actually considered ice out on Saturday night by Bob Cary, which was when a boat could travel east to west without any problem.
A few ice flows yesterday about noon, totally ice free today.
With this said, and by contest rules used from the past, Saturday the 27th about 5 pm could be considered the winner.
"
Thanks for monitoring this TGO. I've been traveling this past month and haven't really been able to follow this. Does anyone have any intel on Gunflint? I never had a chance to contact the member that Mocha suggested.
"It is hard to fail, but it is worse never to have tried to succeed.”
05/02/2019 08:00PM
The Great Outdoors: "Looks as though AdamXChicago and Kelso both predicted the 27th of April, so they will be co-winners!!Congrats guys !
Congratulations!!! :)"
" I want to know Gods thoughts , The rest are details " Albert Einstein. WWJD
05/08/2019 12:06PM
nctry: "I hope the snow tonight is Mother Nature getting it out of her system before the weekend."
All I know down my way it is light rain and about 42 degrees and it is going to last all night maybe snow after 11PM. Fishing will be terrible this weekend if you plan on going.
05/08/2019 09:16PM
Pinetree: "nctry: "I hope the snow tonight is Mother Nature getting it out of her system before the weekend."
All I know down my way it is light rain and about 42 degrees and it is going to last all night maybe snow after 11PM. Fishing will be terrible this weekend if you plan on going."
I still wish I was up there though! :)
"It is hard to fail, but it is worse never to have tried to succeed.”
05/17/2019 01:01PM
Kelso: "So who won?"
It looks like interest with this contest froze out with the lingering cold.
But I figure you won with five-days from the reported ice out of Gunflint Lake. MNLindsey and LindenTree were both off by eight-days between both lakes.
05/19/2019 09:43AM
I've been working a ton as of late, so I haven't kept up with this as much as I would have liked....but, it looks like LindenTree won for Gunflint with a guess of May 12. That's the DNR's official ice-out date for that lake. Congrats LindenTree!
I think a couple folks are winners for Shagawa, message me with your addresses so that I can get your BDBs out to you via mail....happy paddling all, I look forward to seeing you all out on the water (that goes for you too Ben! :)
I think a couple folks are winners for Shagawa, message me with your addresses so that I can get your BDBs out to you via mail....happy paddling all, I look forward to seeing you all out on the water (that goes for you too Ben! :)
"It is hard to fail, but it is worse never to have tried to succeed.”
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