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WhiteWolf
distinguished member(4275)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
04/02/2020 01:59AM
Smart people on here. Honest question.

I have respect for the virus, but I have an honest question that maybe someone can answer.

Being most of my friends and family live in either MN or IA - I will combine both of those states in the the following numbers; total positive cases of CV-19 after being tested (again in MN and IA) through April 1st is 1241. Total number of tests is 29,044 which means 4.2% of those tests have come back positive. Total deaths due to CV-19 in both IA and MN is 26 from those 1241 positive cases which is 2% mortality rate of those positive or a 0.00089% of those tested.

My question is this; how many people who have received negative tests for CV-19 in MN - IA (95.8% or well over 27,000 people) - which were/are likely pretty sick to get tested - how many of those have died of something not CV-19 related? It's a serious question that deserves some pondering. Probably not a "concrete" answer can be given, but if you do the math with simple mortality rates - at least some of 27,000 people have passed - and maybe at a higher rate than the CV-19 rate?

link that I got data from
 
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andym
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04/02/2020 04:26AM
The people who got negative tests most likely had things that were much less likely to kill them than covid-19. Or they were tested because they had contact with someone who was positive and weren’t actually sick. Also, my understanding is that there are more false negatives than false positives. And people who are sick and recovering may have multiple tests to verify that they are truly negative after recovering. Final category are tests that haven’t returned results yet. Overall, I don’t think you can correlate tests 1 to 1 to people who were so sick that they had a high chance of dying.

Yes, some areas haven’t been hit hard yet but look at NY. They don’t usually need refrigerated trailers to store bodies. Thus the death rate is definitely up due to covid-19.
 
missmolly
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04/02/2020 06:21AM
You're thinking it might be a half hoax? Well, in that case, I'll utter a half "WHEW," or "EW!"
 
Blatz
distinguished member(1464)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
04/02/2020 06:25AM
Other diseases didn't suddenly take a break during the CV-19 outbreak. The trouble with testing right now is the time it takes to get the result. Your test results may have come back negative. But you could have contracted the disease between the time of the test and the when you get the results. Abbott Labs in IL has developed a test that gets results in a matter of minutes. Not sure if it's in full use yet. Don't be fooled by the low numbers in rural areas. Here in IL, we have very rural counties who had no cases. Now they have people who have come down with it. I still don't get why the entire country is not under some shelter in place order. It will end when it has nowhere to spread.
 
JimmyJustice
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04/02/2020 06:26AM
WW

WW, I've been wondering the same thing and before anyone jumps to the conclusion that either WW or myself are mitigating the seriousness of the outbreak, we are not. We are interested in knowing the numbers, if they are ascertainable. Just curious.

WW, here are a couple of things I am curious to know the answers to as well - and time might be the only thing that provides reliable answers:

1) I am curious to know if the total number of daily deaths in MN & Iowa has changed significantly since the outbreak, one way or the other. At this early stage, it is probably too soon to have any statistical reliability. However, for example, presumably there are fewer folks on the road and by extrapolation fewer accidents and thus fewer deaths. In 2018 there were 380 automobile deaths in MN (roughly 95 per quarter). I presume, but don't know, that the number of automobile deaths for the first quarter in 2020 is less; but was that decline replaced by Covid related deaths? According to the MN Dept of Health, in 2017, there were 44,361 deaths in MN, from all causes. The mortality rate is roughly 0.8% (795 per 100,000) https://www.health.state.mn.us/data/mchs/vitalstats/death.html.

2) When we get these daily reports of Covid related deaths, what percentage of those deaths were primarily caused by Covid and what percentage only accelerated by Covid, that being, the decedent would have died by any other contributing factor such as pneumonia or a bacteria or a short passage of time; essentially the person was near end of life already. (We all know that not everyone who is said to have died because of the snow storm did in fact die because of the storm. That heart attack was going to happen...it just happened on the day of the storm...not the snow's fault). These numbers may not be attainable with statistical reliability because there may be too many factors involved including the quality of health care, delay in seeking treatment etc.

Just curious.
 
x2jmorris
distinguished member(1249)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
04/02/2020 06:33AM
There is no way it is at a higher rate. Say your overall percent you said of deaths between those two states was 2 percent. At best other causes would drop it to 1.9 percent. Compare that to the normal flu which kills 0.02 percent or something around there... Covid has a much higher fatality rate. Yeah 2 percent isn't crazy high however it is high enough to overflow hospitals. That is the problem, not the virus. Everyone is going to get this thing, we are just trying to slow it down so that hospitals can keep up with intakes. And nursing homes hopefully we can keep them clean until Fall 2021 when hopefully we have a vaccine.
 
JimmyJustice
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04/02/2020 07:16AM
x2jmorris: "There is no way it is at a higher rate. Say your overall percent you said of deaths between those two states was 2 percent. At best other causes would drop it to 1.9 percent. Compare that to the normal flu which kills 0.02 percent or something around there... Covid has a much higher fatality rate. Yeah 2 percent isn't crazy high however it is high enough to overflow hospitals. That is the problem, not the virus. Everyone is going to get this thing, we are just trying to slow it down so that hospitals can keep up with intakes. And nursing homes hopefully we can keep them clean until Fall 2021 when hopefully we have a vaccine."

Agreed, availability of hospital space is a real concern.
 
missmolly
distinguished member(6959)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
04/02/2020 07:47AM
andym: "The people who got negative tests most likely had things that were much less likely to kill them than covid-19. Or they were tested because they had contact with someone who was positive and weren’t actually sick. Also, my understanding is that there are more false negatives than false positives. And people who are sick and recovering may have multiple tests to verify that they are truly negative after recovering. Final category are tests that haven’t returned results yet. Overall, I don’t think you can correlate tests 1 to 1 to people who were so sick that they had a high chance of dying.


Yes, some areas haven’t been hit hard yet but look at NY. They don’t usually need refrigerated trailers to store bodies. Thus the death rate is definitely up due to covid-19."


I just read that there are 85 of those refrigerated trailers in NYC.
 
inspector13
distinguished member(4106)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
04/02/2020 07:50AM

Decedent. Now there is a word to be vigilant about using in a professional conveyance. Misspell that one and the whole thing takes on a new meaning.

 
nofish
distinguished member(2772)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
04/02/2020 08:22AM
JimmyJustice: "


2) When we get these daily reports of Covid related deaths, what percentage of those deaths were primarily caused by Covid and what percentage only accelerated by Covid, that being, the decedent would have died by any other contributing factor such as pneumonia or a bacteria or a short passage of time; essentially the person was near end of life already. (We all know that not everyone who is said to have died because of the snow storm did in fact die because of the storm. That heart attack was going to happen...it just happened on the day of the storm...not the snow's fault). These numbers may not be attainable with statistical reliability because there may be too many factors involved including the quality of health care, delay in seeking treatment etc.


Just curious.
"


Regarding point #2. There are for sure people who ultimately died from Covid-19 but were likely not going to live much longer anyways. That doesn't really change the cause of death though. If someone with advanced stages of cancer has a massive heart attack we're going to call the cause of death a heart attack. You don't ignore the heart attack just because they had cancer and were probably going to die anyways.

I will also add a personal note on this. I personally know of one person who likely died of covid-19 but they were suffering from other serious health conditions as well. They chose to not do the test but given symptoms they labeled the person a presumed positive but with no test it wasn't counted in the total. So there are people with other illnesses dying from covid-19 that are not being recorded in the data.

I think squabbling over the exact numbers of who died form covid-19, what percentage of those would have died within the next 6 months, year, 2 years regardless, who tested negative but died anyways, etc is kind of a waste of time. Even if we had a way of knowing those numbers, which we don't, what would those numbers prove or disprove? We all know covid-19 is serious threat. the 1-2% mortality rate isn't really even the issue. Its that a relatively large amount of people end up needing hospitalization and of those people a good number need intensive care and ventilators. If we don't keep the numbers down hospitals won't be able to keep up and when that happens you'll see localized areas where the mortality rate jumps because some people are left untreated. Look at Italy for example, their mortality rate is currently almost 12% because they are having to choose you gets treated because they can't treat everyone.

There simply is no way of diminishing how serious this could potentially be. When you have the President saying only losing 100,000 people in the US would be considered a win thats a scary thought.
 
WhiteWolf
distinguished member(4275)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
04/02/2020 08:53AM
missmolly: "You're thinking it might be a half hoax? Well, in that case, I'll utter a half "WHEW," or "EW!""

Not at all. Total respect. I just think there is some other nasty stuff (serious flu) out there that is not Covid 19 likely taking lives also.

 
nofish
distinguished member(2772)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
04/02/2020 09:17AM
WhiteWolf: "missmolly: "You're thinking it might be a half hoax? Well, in that case, I'll utter a half "WHEW," or "EW!""


Not at all. Total respect. I just think there is some other nasty stuff (serious flu) out there that is not Covid 19 likely taking lives also.


"


There probably is. Flu season is wrapping up but certainly still hitting some people and some are likely dying from it. That doesn't really have anything to do with the confirmed deaths from coivd-19 though and the death rate from any flu that is out there is still much less than covid-19.
 
andym
distinguished member(4852)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
04/02/2020 11:51AM
Sorry this is so long. I've spent a lot of time thinking about medical and disaster statistics over my career and the last 16 years of being a lymphoma patient.

My reply was along the veins of understanding how complex the data are and therefore the difficulties of interpreting numbers of tests. I saw an interview with one of the doctors managing the response at Univ. of California San Francisco (UCSF) which is entirely a medical campus and a large research hospital. His focus was on the statistics of the patients who need hospitalization and whether they need ICU care and ventilators because those are numbers that they really know. UCSF is capable of running 300 tests a day which he said is sufficient for their clinical needs and managing care in the hospital. He was making some extrapolations from those numbers to how our restrictions are working. But the testing is completely insufficient to fully understand how the virus is behaving in the community at large due to the large number of asymptomatic carriers. So the data can tell us some things but not others.

Faster tests definitely help and a number are coming out. Be aware that some of the fast tests are antibody blood tests that show whether the person has mounted an immune response to the disease rather than whether they are currently infected and contagious. Both are critical pieces of information and most of the tests so far have been swabs up the nose.

In general, we know more about the most severe things. According to a medical webinar for lymphoma patients a few weeks ago, we know a lot about the number of deaths, a good amount about the number of people who are very sick, and almost nothing about the total number of infections.

We have the same problem in studying earthquakes, especially older ones, our records are more complete about the larger ones than the smaller ones and we work hard to make sure we understand the limitations of the data. We also model aftershocks with math based on epidemics. So a lot of this is familiar to me.

The other problem we have in seismology is counting deaths due to earthquakes. The person crushed by a falling building: definitely killed by the earthquake. The person who had a heart attack: maybe, maybe not. In some disasters the death rate above seasonal norms is used to determine the number of deaths when the data gets messy. That was done for the hurricanes in Puerto Rico during 2017.

Finally, attributing cause of death can be tricky and for that reason medical studies often focus on overall survival rather than disease specific survival. If I die of COVID-19 then some long-term lymphoma and bone marrow transplant studies will record my death and use it as a data point for their studies. And that is actually fair because my lymphoma and treatment history are a factor in how I may do if I get infected.

However, there are fears that some places are reducing COVID-19 statistics by attributing deaths to pneumonia. For things that we are trying to track specifically we sometimes record extra information on the death certificate. My father-in-law passed away of an intestinal bleed due to a gastrointestinal stromal cell tumor. So you have two possible causes of death there and I can't remember which one is on his death certificate. But a reason he died of the intestinal bleed is because his history of smoking had so damaged blood vessels that they couldn't operate on the bleed. In the corner of the NY state death certificate is a check box for whether smoking attributed to his death and so for him that was checked. Showing the certificate to my mother-in-law and having her see that was one of the hardest moments of my life.
 
missmolly
distinguished member(6959)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
04/02/2020 02:56PM
"In some disasters the death rate above seasonal norms is used to determine the number of deaths when the data gets messy."

That works for me.

"If I die of COVID-19 then some long-term lymphoma and bone marrow transplant studies will record my death and use it as a data point for their studies. And that is actually fair because my lymphoma and treatment history are a factor in how I may do if I get infected."

I love when smart people rev their brains.
 
tashit
senior member (69)senior membersenior member
 
04/02/2020 03:02PM
WhiteWolf: "Total deaths due to CV-19 in both IA and MN is 26 from those 1241 positive cases which is 2% mortality rate of those positive or a 0.00089% of those tested.

link that I got data from "


Only 26 of those 1241 have died so far. More than 26 of those 1241 are unfortunately going to die which makes that mortality rate more than 2%.
 
missmolly
distinguished member(6959)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
04/02/2020 07:09PM
"As the death toll from the novel coronavirus that causes COVID-19 soars in the U.S. and statistical models predict more than 100,000 to come, conservative media personalities are pushing the ghoulish argument that the fatality statistics are “inflated” because they count people who died with the disease but also had underlying conditions."
 
mrballast
senior member (56)senior membersenior member
 
04/02/2020 07:34PM
This is a good thread so far. I have no opinion yet, except this....

Please keep this discussion cordial and informative. This is no time to abandon public discourse and debate. If we are willing to argue, then it should mean we care. Thats the first sign of common ground. If you are unwilling to build on that, please refrain from posting. This is not aimed at anyone.

Now...to other questions...for someone that isnt an English major...

If all who are tested were positive, where does that put mortality?
If all tested represent say a quarter of those carrying, where is mortality?
These questions are just to explore the false negative issue and lack of testing.

Flip the perspective then and ask, how many infected deaths were attributed to other causes? If all tested represent 4x those carrying at the time tested (panic tests, med workers not infected) where does that put us? This is to examine the use of testing and judgement call for c.o.d.

Peace and provision to all.
 
podgeo
distinguished member (281)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
04/02/2020 08:33PM
missmolly: ""As the death toll from the novel coronavirus that causes COVID-19 soars in the U.S. and statistical models predict more than 100,000 to come, conservative media personalities are pushing the ghoulish argument that the fatality statistics are “inflated” because they count people who died with the disease but also had underlying conditions.""

I find it fascinating that every article you read says 100,00-200,000 deaths possible in the U.S.

By when ??? 3 weeks ?? 6 months ?? Year ??

Haven't seen any dates in articles I've read.

But at that rate we're going 1000+ a day. We could see 100,000 by July .
Its going to be getting crazy out there
 
carmike
distinguished member(1740)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
04/02/2020 10:24PM
Also following this thread with interest.

What I've found interesting about this outbreak is... 1) The way in which people's political leanings correlate with their reaction to the virus, which relates to which news channels they watch, which seems to increase and/or decrease their fear level by a significant amount, 2) the way the aforementioned correlation relates to people's general attitude towards "mainstream medicine," Donald Trump, or "science," 3) the way more collective and/or more authoritarian cultures *might* have an advantage in dealing with this particular kind of problem, and 4) when all this is over, how the aggregated data breaks down into the (to me) more interesting disaggregated data -- for example, who gets it and who doesn't, how effective social distancing actually is/was, mortality rate by age or gender or other risk factors, the long-term economic impacts, etc.

Also, hindsight bias is going to be rife.

I'm intrigued by situations where success is measured by something that DOESN'T happen. Makes it tough to evaluate outcomes, and interesting to try.
 
andym
distinguished member(4852)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
04/02/2020 11:12PM
carmike: "
I'm intrigued by situations where success is measured by something that DOESN'T happen. Makes it tough to evaluate outcomes, and interesting to try. "


It is tough. Because of this issue I was interviewed by a podcast about Y2K preparations and the work it took to make it a non-event. I was involved in updating earthquake monitoring systems. A difference was that the preparation for Y2K (except for people stockpiling for their homes) was done by a small minority. This time everyone is being asked to work together by staying apart.
 
WhiteWolf
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04/03/2020 12:35AM
I have serious respect for CV-19. It's nasty. But lets focus on some + news; (perhaps)?

Good news. If you don't have underlying health issues, even if you get it, Covid-19 probably won't kill you. (But in no way do I want this to convey that this post is "OK" with any death due to CV-19- or ANY human death in general ).


PDF #1

PDF #2


Another item of interest from CNN-

Death Rates lower than previously thought- A GOOD THING!!


 
Portage99
distinguished member (461)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
04/03/2020 05:31AM
It’s a novel virus that jumped from animals to humans And then developed the ability to move between humans. So that’s the type of virus to worry about. We don’t have any natural immunity that we know of and we don’t exactly know what the long-term effects of the virus are. Lots of questions that are being aggressively followed. My class has been following this virus since we started this semester because of it was one of those viruses that jumped and spread. Wayback in January, I pulled this off the news and we’ve been following it each week. Sometimes these viruses fizzle out, but they are always monitored closely.Unfortunately, this one didn’t fizzle. I remember telling my class, “Let’s hope this one doesn’t stick around!”

It’s pretty interesting to read about the role of genomics in understanding the virus and the assorted questions. Not that I pretend to understand all the genetic jargon.I’ve been following the research on why some people with no underlying conditions die. Are there multiple strains? What types of behaviors are characteristics do the people have?

It’s very contagious, which means a lot of victims. It appears to spread before symptoms appear which is very concerning for the vulnerable. In my opinion, that’s one of the differences with this virus. You could have a group gathering and everyone is healthy and happy but someone is still spreading the virus.Although most healthy young people recover, the disease is very devastating to the compromised.We have an aging population, as does the world. So, that means a lot of potentially seriously sick people needing complex care that we’re not prepared to handle.

So, the primary concern which we are seeing in major cities around the world is that healthcare systems are not able to handle the number of victims needing care. For example, Italy, they had to ration supplies such as ventilators, essentially those decisions select which patients have the best chance. Although they are still studying the virus, I have seen statistics as high as 50% of those who need ICU care might die (although this is evolving all the time).

 
missmolly
distinguished member(6959)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
04/03/2020 06:15AM
WhiteWolf: " I have serious respect for CV-19. It's nasty. But lets focus on some + news; (perhaps)?

Good news. If you don't have underlying health issues, even if you get it, Covid-19 probably won't kill you. (But in no way do I want this to convey that this post is "OK" with any death due to CV-19- or ANY human death in general ).


PDF #1

PDF #2



Another item of interest from CNN-


Death Rates lower than previously thought- A GOOD THING!!



"


You respect the virus.

I hate it. It's going to drown hundreds of thousands of Americans. Each breath is going to fill like they're breathing broken glass. Then they'll die. Alone.

You call it nasty. It's not nasty.

It's deadly. It's mass-deadly. It's catastrophically deadly. At this point, it might kill as many or more Americans than Hitler* did.

You're quibbling about cause of death and I know why. Okay, let's quibble about Hitler, since I just mentioned how many Americans he killed. Hitler, with Tojo's and Mussolini's help, waged war killed between 69 and 88 million servicepeople and civilians. Or did he?

"Deaths directly caused by the war (including military and civilians killed) are estimated at 50–56 million people, while there were an additional estimated 19 to 28 million deaths from war-related disease and famine."

So, in your frame of mind, the 19 to 28 million deaths from war-related disease and famine can't be added to the fascists' death counts because the fascists didn't wield dysentery, malaria, typhoid, and pneumonia.

*Godwin's Law is not in play because I didn't compare a person to Hitler. I compared the virus's death count to Hitler's.

 
nofish
distinguished member(2772)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
04/03/2020 07:37AM
mrballast: "

If all who are tested were positive, where does that put mortality?
If all tested represent say a quarter of those carrying, where is mortality?
These questions are just to explore the false negative issue and lack of testing.


Flip the perspective then and ask, how many infected deaths were attributed to other causes? If all tested represent 4x those carrying at the time tested (panic tests, med workers not infected) where does that put us? This is to examine the use of testing and judgement call for c.o.d.


Peace and provision to all."


I know we all focus on mortality rate because the number of deaths is the scary number. However, the actual mortality rate will never be known. We simply don't have the ability to test enough people. Unless you're sick enough to seek medical attention you aren't getting tested and even if you do seek medical attention you might not be tested. So we know there are a lot of more mild cases going unreported which would drop the mortality rate.

On the flip side I've heard at least anecdotal reports of some Covid-19 patients officially dying from pneumonia which is of course 100% the result of covid-19 but is likely not being captured in the death toll. Like I mentioned previously I also personally know of 1 person that likely died of Covid-19 but they did not get tested as they were dealing with other health issues that were eating away at quality of life and they did not want any measures taken to extend life. Even though covid-19 was the presumed caused of death it won't be recorded in the death toll.

I've also heard many reports out of China putting their confirmed case count and death toll is serious question. Some Chinese citizens report crematories running non stop day after day after day. We'll never get a real number but that certainly seems to indicate that more than a few thousand died.

Given all of these reasons the mortality rate is just a number and a fairly inaccurate one. I think the scarier number may actually be the number of hospitalizations. In many cities the risk is very real that they'll run out of hospital beds to put people. Even if most recover thats a scary thought and it proves that this isn't just another flu.
 
ZaraSp00k
distinguished member(1483)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
04/03/2020 09:28AM
FWIW, 141 Minnesotans have died from the flu this year, over 4000 people hospitalized

2 years ago 440 people died from it



 
jcavenagh
distinguished member(4552)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
04/03/2020 10:10AM
missmolly: "You're thinking it might be a half hoax? Well, in that case, I'll utter a half "WHEW," or "EW!""
I don't think that is WW's point.
I think he is asking an epidemiological l question.
The question is a valid one that public health folks must ask.
It really is necessary to tease out the COV cases from other diseases, e.g. various flu strains, rhinoviruses, etc.
 
04/03/2020 10:31AM
I applaud the general civility that continues. I have been an observer of the impact of COVID 19 and appreciate perspective. IMHO...
*accurate labeling and the subsequent numbers suggesting cause can not be accurate, there are too many variables.
*the laws of inertia apply to human response to an event. We deny, minimize, etc.
*some consequences are obvious, some not so obvious. Because elective medical treatment is being delayed how many things will go undiagnosed and untreated with what results?
*some tough stuff here. Mother earth takes care of herself. When populations become too dense wars and disease have occurred when relocation was not possible. We watch moose and other species wax and wane and know well the effects of over crowding a territory. And that raises the unpopular questions about whether we should interfere and when we do how many resources at what cost do we invest?

Be smart and respect your emotions. It is a good time to find outlets for the emotions stirred by uncertainty the massive changes in our daily routines, healthy outlets. Use reason in making choices. And remember to wash (pronounced with an r in Iowa) your hands.
 
andym
distinguished member(4852)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
04/03/2020 12:06PM
In terms of teasing apart different diseases, keep in mind that the hospitals are at maximum demand and statements from NY are that emergency room admissions from accidents and crime are very low and surgeries that can be delayed are not being done. So COVID-19 is filling the void and more.
 
missmolly
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04/03/2020 12:09PM
bhouse46: "I applaud the general civility that continues. I have been an observer of the impact of COVID 19 and appreciate perspective. IMHO...
*accurate labeling and the subsequent numbers suggesting cause can not be accurate, there are too many variables.
*the laws of inertia apply to human response to an event. We deny, minimize, etc.
*some consequences are obvious, some not so obvious. Because elective medical treatment is being delayed how many things will go undiagnosed and untreated with what results?
*some tough stuff here. Mother earth takes care of herself. When populations become too dense wars and disease have occurred when relocation was not possible. We watch moose and other species wax and wane and know well the effects of over crowding a territory. And that raises the unpopular questions about whether we should interfere and when we do how many resources at what cost do we invest?


Be smart and respect your emotions. It is a good time to find outlets for the emotions stirred by uncertainty the massive changes in our daily routines, healthy outlets. Use reason in making choices. And remember to wash (pronounced with an r in Iowa) your hands.
"


Your fourth point reminds me of the Gaia hypothesis, which is that the Earth acts as a self-regulating organism. Considering our plastic trash in the ocean will soon surpass the mass of all sea life, COVID-19 could be seen as the Earth's antibodies.
 
missmolly
distinguished member(6959)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
04/03/2020 12:14PM
andym: "In terms of teasing apart different diseases, keep in mind that the hospitals are at maximum demand and statements from NY are that emergency room admissions from accidents and crime are very low and surgeries that can be delayed are not being done. So COVID-19 is filling the void and more. "

Meanwhile, the two hospital ships on the two coasts have about 40 patients aboard, while their combined capacity is about two thousand. The ships are disallowing many patients, literally dozens of exceptions, including all with COVID-19.
 
andym
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04/03/2020 01:50PM
Yes, the situation with the hospital ships is very odd. They weren't expected to take COVID-19 patients but it seems like they are having trouble taking almost anyone. Hopefully they will figure out some protocols to move more patients. They have been used successfully in disaster response including disease in other places.
 
straighthairedcurly
distinguished member(700)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
04/03/2020 02:32PM
It is much too early in the Midwest to tell anything from the statistics in terms of how this compares to other causes of death during the same time frame. We are just getting started with this virus unfortunately.

Plus, we will NEVER truly have a measure of the extent of the infection because our country has tested a ridiculously low number of people, unless we ultimately are able to develop an accurate serum test for antibodies and test the majority of the population (or at least a statistically significant random sample of the population).

I was diagnosed as probably having Covid-19 via an online platform based on symptoms. I trust that diagnosis based on how different my illness was compared to anything else I have ever had (including influenza). So my husband and I (and likely our son despite him being pretty well asymptomatic) are not included in any of the statistics.

Take care everyone.
 
arctic
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04/03/2020 03:03PM
This is a numbers game. The common cold is a fast-mutating coronavirus, and tends to eventually infect most people on a regular basis. But the mortality rate is like--almost zero.

Covid-19 is also a Coronavirus, but with a mortality rate of 1-2 percent. Currently, something like 5 percent of people who get the virus will be hospitalized, so when you look at a country of 320 million people--most of who will eventually contract the virus--
5 percent ends up being a HUGE number of people. 1-2 percent of 320 million people is a lot of people.

If you have high blood pressure, diabetes, obesity, a compromised immune system, or are elderly--then you are in that high risk of death category. That includes a HUGE part of the American people.

But this virus has also killed young athletes and babies.

So, if you are one of those people who think that the threat of this virus is a hoax, then you are a part of the problem.

 
WhiteWolf
distinguished member(4275)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
04/03/2020 03:33PM
jcavenagh: "missmolly: "You're thinking it might be a half hoax? Well, in that case, I'll utter a half "WHEW," or "EW!""
I don't think that is WW's point.
I think he is asking an epidemiological l question.
The question is a valid one that public health folks must ask.
It really is necessary to tease out the COV cases from other diseases, e.g. various flu strains, rhinoviruses, etc."


Exactly my question. Just asked better than I did.
Thank you!!
 
missmolly
distinguished member(6959)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
04/04/2020 05:50AM
WhiteWolf: "jcavenagh: "missmolly: "You're thinking it might be a half hoax? Well, in that case, I'll utter a half "WHEW," or "EW!""
I don't think that is WW's point.
I think he is asking an epidemiological l question.
The question is a valid one that public health folks must ask.
It really is necessary to tease out the COV cases from other diseases, e.g. various flu strains, rhinoviruses, etc."



Exactly my question. Just asked better than I did.
Thank you!!"


Your epidemiological question had already been considered and answered by the world's foremost epidemiologists:

“I cannot find anywhere the definition of what it means to die from this virus,” Mark Levin, MD and noted epidemiology expert, said. “In other words, if I go into the hospital and I already have a very, very bad heart, and I’m not given a whole lot of time, and then I get this virus, and it puts me over the edge, is that counted as dying from heart failure, heart disease, a heart attack, if you have one, or the virus?”

Dr. Rush Limbaugh, Head of Epidemiology at Harvard Medical School, said, “It’s admittedly speculation, but what if we are recording a bunch of deaths to coronavirus which really should not be chalked up to coronavirus? People die on this planet every day from a wide variety of things. But because the coronavirus is out there, got everybody paranoid, governments are eager, almost, to chalk up as many deaths to coronavirus as they can because then it furthers the policies they have put in place by virtue of their models.”

Dr. Brit Hume, esteemed epidemiology expert, said, “NY's Covid 19 fatality numbers are inflated because they don’t distinguish between those who die with the disease and those who die from it.”

It should be further noted that Dr. Limbaugh also said, "Coronavirus is like the common cold, and all of this panic is just not warranted".

I wish the doctors and nurses in NYC and evermore cities would simply read Dr. Limbaugh's words and simply prescribe two aspirins, some cold medicine, and send those panicked snifflers home. And no more cheering for the doctors and nurses who are feeding this panic! It's just like the common cold.



Just in case you don't know, the quotes are verbatim and the titles are hokum.



 
Bushpilot
distinguished member(880)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
04/04/2020 06:12AM
missmolly: "WhiteWolf: "jcavenagh: "missmolly: "You're thinking it might be a half hoax? Well, in that case, I'll utter a half "WHEW," or "EW!""
I don't think that is WW's point.
I think he is asking an epidemiological l question.
The question is a valid one that public health folks must ask.
It really is necessary to tease out the COV cases from other diseases, e.g. various flu strains, rhinoviruses, etc."




Exactly my question. Just asked better than I did.
Thank you!!"



Your epidemiological question had already been considered and answered by the world's foremost epidemiologists:


“I cannot find anywhere the definition of what it means to die from this virus,” Mark Levin, MD and noted epidemiology expert, said. “In other words, if I go into the hospital and I already have a very, very bad heart, and I’m not given a whole lot of time, and then I get this virus, and it puts me over the edge, is that counted as dying from heart failure, heart disease, a heart attack, if you have one, or the virus?”


Dr. Rush Limbaugh, Head of Epidemiology at Harvard Medical School, said, “It’s admittedly speculation, but what if we are recording a bunch of deaths to coronavirus which really should not be chalked up to coronavirus? People die on this planet every day from a wide variety of things. But because the coronavirus is out there, got everybody paranoid, governments are eager, almost, to chalk up as many deaths to coronavirus as they can because then it furthers the policies they have put in place by virtue of their models.”


Dr. Brit Hume, esteemed epidemiology expert, said, “NY's Covid 19 fatality numbers are inflated because they don’t distinguish between those who die with the disease and those who die from it.”


It should be further noted that Dr. Limbaugh also said, "Coronavirus is like the common cold, and all of this panic is just not warranted".


I wish the doctors and nurses in NYC and evermore cities would simply read Dr. Limbaugh's words and simply prescribe two aspirins, some cold medicine, and send those panicked snifflers home. And no more cheering for the doctors and nurses who are feeding this panic! It's just like the common cold.



Just in case you don't know, the quotes are verbatim and the titles are hokum.



"


I was wondering how long before someone had to turn this political. You just had to do it. You are part of the problem. We need to stick together as a country. Please everyone show that you love the country more than your hate for other people.

It was the CDC and DR Tony Fauci 2 months ago that said the flu was more of a threat. This was more like a cold. Not my words but those of the experts. We were also told face mask didn't help by the CDC. China told us covid19 couldn't be transmitted from person to person. This was a HOAX. Now yesterday Walz and Trump say mask help. How can the public not be confused? I know Waltz and Trump are only repeating what the "experts" tell them. I see the china travel ban joe biden called xenophobic, he is now saying it was good idea. Good for joe admitting he was wrong. The travel ban was the first thing this country did right to fight covid19.

Congress had be warned about this happening in 10 different studies over the last 15 years. But we know congress has been busy with their own agenda. And this is why the wise do not want the government messing with our health care. In Minnesota we are sitting pretty good. Except I read many people in the cities are gathering in groups around the lakes and on the stone bridge. I saw the pictures and just shook my head. You watch because of these people the lockdown will be extended. Mark my word on this.

Bill Gates warned us and our government 5 years ago in 2015 that this would happen.

Here's what Bill Gates once said we needed do to prevent a crisis like the coronavirus, and what we need to do to stop the next pandemic Maybe it is time the private sector takes over this cash machine for the ruling class we call government.

I am done with this thread. I am smart enough not to get my health care advise from someone on a canoe forum. And I sure as hell won't get political advise here. I come from a family of Doctors. At Christmas there were 4 Doctors from my family at the table. Chances are if you had a valve put in your heart in the last 15 years my brother designed it. Their words are very different than those of Dr. missmolly. I am sure this thread will be deleted after Dr. missmollys post. Thanks
 
missmolly
distinguished member(6959)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
04/04/2020 07:11AM
"I was wondering how long before someone had to turn this political. You just had to do it."

It was political from the start, as my quotes proved. WW just wasn't frank enough to provide attribution for his tack.

"It was the CDC and DR Tony Fauci 2 months ago that said the flu was more of a threat. This was more like a cold. Not my words but those of the experts."

Now it's time for you to provide quotes.

Dr. Molly isn't apt. I don't pretend to be a doctor. I do quote doctors. You should try it.
 
Pinetree
distinguished member(12801)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished membermaster membermaster member
 
04/04/2020 08:44AM
arctic: "This is a numbers game. The common cold is a fast-mutating coronavirus, and tends to eventually infect most people on a regular basis. But the mortality rate is like--almost zero.


Covid-19 is also a Coronavirus, but with a mortality rate of 1-2 percent. Currently, something like 5 percent of people who get the virus will be hospitalized, so when you look at a country of 320 million people--most of who will eventually contract the virus--
5 percent ends up being a HUGE number of people. 1-2 percent of 320 million people is a lot of people.


If you have high blood pressure, diabetes, obesity, a compromised immune system, or are elderly--then you are in that high risk of death category. That includes a HUGE part of the American people.


But this virus has also killed young athletes and babies.


So, if you are one of those people who think that the threat of this virus is a hoax, then you are a part of the problem.


"
H1N1 had a death rate of 0.01 to 0.02% Corono is like 2% as you suggested. If you get it it is so much more deadly.
Without the stay at home policy now in effect death numbers would be astronomical now. Also in many states no testing was available early on and still isn't at times. Many people died of suspected Corona but were not tested due to decayed to much already. Some estimates put early death rate 10 times higher than observed.
 
srust58
member (36)member
 
04/04/2020 09:10AM
missmolly: ""I was wondering how long before someone had to turn this political. You just had to do it."

It was political from the start, as my quotes proved. WW just wasn't frank enough to provide attribution for his tack.


"It was the CDC and DR Tony Fauci 2 months ago that said the flu was more of a threat. This was more like a cold. Not my words but those of the experts."

Now it's time for you to provide quotes.


Dr. Molly isn't apt. I don't pretend to be a doctor. I do quote doctors. You should try it.
"


Not sure how this is political. They are not politicians or leaders in any sense of the word. These guys are notorious bullshit spreaders and should be called out. One can imagine how bad this would be if we followed their advice. Is it "political" if someone disagrees with someones else's source of information?
 
missmolly
distinguished member(6959)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
04/04/2020 09:28AM
srust58: "missmolly: ""I was wondering how long before someone had to turn this political. You just had to do it."


It was political from the start, as my quotes proved. WW just wasn't frank enough to provide attribution for his tack.



"It was the CDC and DR Tony Fauci 2 months ago that said the flu was more of a threat. This was more like a cold. Not my words but those of the experts."


Now it's time for you to provide quotes.



Dr. Molly isn't apt. I don't pretend to be a doctor. I do quote doctors. You should try it.
"



Not sure how this is political. They are not politicians or leaders in any sense of the word. These guys are notorious bullshit spreaders and should be called out. One can imagine how bad this would be if we followed their advice. Is it "political" if someone disagrees with someones else's source of information?"


Well, to be frank, there's a dot I didn't connect. Bushpilot knows what that dot is. So does WW. You simply have to ask, why, within hours of each other, would Limbaugh, WW, Hume, and Levin pose the same question? We'll call it the Dot that must not be Named.
 
Moosepatrol
member (35)member
 
04/04/2020 10:03AM
Help me, I can't find my tinfoil hat.

What is the dot?
 
missmolly
distinguished member(6959)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
04/04/2020 12:15PM
Moosepatrol: "Help me, I can't find my tinfoil hat.


What is the dot?"


Go to motive, like any good detective would. Who benefits from saying, "Not all these COVID-19 deaths should be counted as COVID-19 deaths because those people would have denied anyway."

Another clue: It's the hoax people, the ones who called the pandemic a hoax.
 
WhiteWolf
distinguished member(4275)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
04/04/2020 01:32PM
MM,
It was a question I came up with of my own volition. Your giving me too much credit. My point of the question is to probe into statistics and was NOT meant to get political. That's the truth. I apologise if it led some to think otherwise in this world where we must unite as one and worry about the other stuff later.
 
srust58
member (36)member
 
04/04/2020 01:35PM


These clowns are known spreaders of misleading information on this pandemic. They are just entertainers who job is to sell advertising space. How can criticizing them be political?
 
mutz
distinguished member(1241)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
04/04/2020 03:03PM
I give this thread one more day it’s been turned into a political thread and will quickly get worse.
 
billconner
distinguished member(7368)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
04/04/2020 05:32PM
mutz: "I give this thread one more day it’s been turned into a political thread and will quickly get worse."

+1
 
LindenTree
distinguished member(2589)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
04/04/2020 06:28PM
billconner: "mutz: "I give this thread one more day it’s been turned into a political thread and will quickly get worse."


+1"


Both of you just wasted band width, the mods know what's going on.
They do not need you chiming in.
 
nooneuno
distinguished member(523)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
04/04/2020 06:36PM
I don't miss the politics in the BWCA forum.....
 
OCDave
distinguished member(543)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
04/04/2020 10:32PM
WhiteWolf: "MM,
It was a question I came up with of my own volition. Your giving me too much credit. My point of the question is to probe into statistics and was NOT meant to get political. That's the truth. I apologise if it led some to think otherwise in this world where we must unite as one and worry about the other stuff later.
"


Because testing for COVID-19 is not universally available, nor random, nor even uniformally applied, extraoplating anything meaningful from the numbers of your original post, from a statistically significant perspective, is not likely.

From a raw numbers perspective, COVID-19 became the 3rd leading cause of death in the US this past week. It expected to be the number 1 cause of death by the end of this coming week. Testing, for all itents and purposes, has become meaningless in the face of the sheer number of infections. It is now practical to assume that if one has symptoms consistent with COVID-19 then one has COVID-19 infection and treat according to the severity of those symptoms.

WhiteWolf, having read others of your posts on this site, I take you as sincere in not meaning to get political. Curiosity of scientific discovery and the mathematics that reveal those discoveries is admirable. We live in a time when science has given us the the clearest understanding of the universe in the history of our species. Hopefully, we as a species will make use of that understanding while we still have options.
 
04/05/2020 06:41AM
WW despite some of the political ranting and ravings of some trying to think for you and rudely put words into your mouth, your original post is a very valid question, one that will be asked by epidemiologists for years after this crisis. I personally don’t think it will be answered unfortunately. The country with the highest testing rates I am aware of for COVID-19 is Iceland. I think they have tested 3% of their country. What they have found is 50% of the people that test positive are basically symptom free. We only test the sick at this point and in many areas we can’t even do that. The death rate in Iceland is .29%. It is too early to say if this is the true rate of death from COVID-19 and extrapolate their numbers to other countries with less testing as the health of our populations vary.

Another interesting question would be how many people are dying of other problems because of COVID-19? In New York with hospitals swamped, what if you have a heart attack? Is helped delayed? To get ready for COVID-19 we delayed all non essential medical procedures, it was the right thing to do, but does that cause additional deaths. What if you needed heart valve replaced, it was put off and you pass away from a complication due to waiting? Do we count those as COVID-19 deaths?

Right now it is all philosophical...we may never know. Most people in the medical field are just trying create as much room as possible in hospitals and ICU’s, stock up PPE. At this point projections in MN/IA is we will not flatten the curve we are just pushing it back to allow us more time to prepare for the onslaught of sick people needing care all at once.

T
 
mutz
distinguished member(1241)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
04/05/2020 06:51AM
LindenTree: "billconner: "mutz: "I give this thread one more day it’s been turned into a political thread and will quickly get worse."



+1"



Both of you just wasted band width, the mods know what's going on.
They do not need you chiming in."


Now you have wasted band width once, me twice. I just made an observation, sorry you didn’t approve.
 
04/05/2020 07:16AM
OCDave: "
WhiteWolf, having read others of your posts on this site, I take you as sincere in not meaning to get political. Curiosity of scientific discovery and the mathematics that reveal those discoveries is admirable. We live in a time when science has given us the the clearest understanding of the universe in the history of our species. Hopefully, we as a species will make use of that understanding while we still have options."


Well said and I agree.
 
Moosepatrol
member (35)member
 
04/05/2020 07:23AM
TomT: "OCDave: "
WhiteWolf, having read others of your posts on this site, I take you as sincere in not meaning to get political. Curiosity of scientific discovery and the mathematics that reveal those discoveries is admirable. We live in a time when science has given us the the clearest understanding of the universe in the history of our species. Hopefully, we as a species will make use of that understanding while we still have options."



Well said and I agree. "

+2
Side note. Lake and Cook county have no "reported" cases. Yet.
 
Moosepatrol
member (35)member
 
04/05/2020 07:25AM
srust58: "


These clowns are known spreaders of misleading information on this pandemic. They are just entertainers who job is to sell advertising space. How can criticizing them be political? "

No political pictures is about the only rule I know of on the forum.

In my humble opinion that picture is a political. But it is up to the mods and it didn't get deleted. If nothing else it is a dog whistle to take a jab at the right. I really don't care as I feel both sides are scum. It could just as easily been Anderson Cooper and rachel maddow.
 
Captn Tony
distinguished member(1444)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
04/05/2020 07:48AM
Food for thought.
A younger person I know is a mechanic and about Dec. he was working on a plane that flew in from China, He caught the flu and it turned into pneumonia. He was pretty sick for over a week. Was that the flu or corona?
Of course we'll never know!!
 
04/05/2020 07:56AM
Captn Tony: "Food for thought.
A younger person I know is a mechanic and about Dec. he was working on a plane that flew in from China, He caught the flu and it turned into pneumonia. He was pretty sick for over a week. Was that the flu or corona?
Of course we'll never know!! "


You are right we will never know. I’d guess the flu. Until COVID-19 came along it was shaping up to be a bad flu year. As infectious as COVID-19 seems to be you would expect more illness to be associated with this mechanic—that is some around him, friends, co-workers, and the people treating him would have gotten sick too. But I acknowledge it could of been corona too.

T
 
Arceneaux
distinguished member (113)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
04/05/2020 09:01AM
nooneuno: "I don't miss the politics in the BWCA forum....."
Amen. Missmolly, you are definitely part of the problem here.... dial it back Chica. Whitewolf is no anti-science hoax guy... sheesh
 
missmolly
distinguished member(6959)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
04/05/2020 09:36AM
This is Miss Molly quoting a doc again:

"The death toll has become a heavily politicized benchmark. Trump’s defenders claim the official number is inflated because it includes all deceased people who tested positive for covid-19, even if there was another cause of death, such as a heart attack or an accident.

Marc Lipsitch, a professor of epidemiology at Harvard, said there are probably some people dying with covid-19 who are not dying of covid-19. Such misattribution is a problem for any cause of death, he said, but it is a minor issue that is “swamped by the opposite problem: deaths that are caused by covid but never attributed, so the death count is underestimated.”

Arceneaux, you seem to frame this as being about WW and me. It isn't. It's about one's focus in the middle of a pandemic. Let's revisit the dead in WWII. I find it repugnant to attribute a Marine's death who fell to malaria to a mosquito or a soldier who fell to dysentery in France to disease. Yhat Marine and that soldier were killed by the fascists. Those men wouldn't have been in some Polynesian jungle and in France if it hadn't been for the fascists. Tojo and Hitler put them there.

If COVID-19 puts you on a respirator and you drown from the inside because the virus fills your lungs, that's enough for me. Sure, congestive heart failure or kidney disease or an autoimmune disease or Type 1 diabetes might have made them susceptible, but without COVID-19, their lungs wouldn't have filled.
 
04/05/2020 10:16AM
(Edited)
Trying not to add to the problem...sorry.

T
 
missmolly
distinguished member(6959)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
04/05/2020 10:34AM
Tim, this is utterly on point and it's what immediately preceded your post: "If COVID-19 puts you on a respirator and you drown from the inside because the virus fills your lungs, that's enough for me. Sure, congestive heart failure or kidney disease or an autoimmune disease or Type 1 diabetes might have made them susceptible, but without COVID-19, their lungs wouldn't have filled."

That does answer WW's question. It directly addresses it.

So, this is wrong: "if you think WW post question is beneath you...."
 
04/05/2020 10:42AM
I am not going to reply directly to your posts on this subject anymore. I shouldn’t of posted sorry WW and Mods. Doesn’t change my feelings...but doesn’t advance WW discussion.
 
missmolly
distinguished member(6959)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
04/05/2020 10:47AM
timatkn: "I am not going to reply directly to your posts on this subject anymore. I shouldn’t of posted sorry WW and Mods. Doesn’t change my feelings...but doesn’t advance WW discussion. "

Keep posting. You have a conception of what should constitute this thread and I'm not a part of that, so I'll withdraw to make room for you. Adios!
 
BWPaddler
distinguished member(9225)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
04/05/2020 02:28PM
Captn Tony: "Food for thought.
A younger person I know is a mechanic and about Dec. he was working on a plane that flew in from China, He caught the flu and it turned into pneumonia. He was pretty sick for over a week. Was that the flu or corona?
Of course we'll never know!! "


Didn't they test him for the flu? I had a trip to Los Angeles in February and came back sick and they did test for flu and strep. And it has turned into pneumonia. I may never know if it was the Coronavirus but at least I know it was not the flu because they did easily test for that. Sadly, they will not test for Coronavirus because they just do not have enough capacity. I have touched base with the healthcare system four times over this illness, and each time they have another reason why not to test me for covid-19. I originally had virtually all the symptoms including loss of smell. I hope your friend is healthy now!
 
Arceneaux
distinguished member (113)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
04/05/2020 03:01PM
Your hyperbole does nothing for this discussion, molly. The way you assume things of the people you criticize from your high chair of knowledge has made me pull back from giving you the dignity of calling you Miss....
 
andym
distinguished member(4852)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
04/05/2020 03:01PM
The original question and early discussion was about whether we can estimate the mortality rate of COVID-19 and are correctly counting the fatalities. The experts interviewed for this NY Times article suggest that we are undercounting the fatalities.

For cases like BWPaddler and Captn Tony's friend, this will be the utility of blood tests for antibodies to the virus. Like them, it is possible that my wife and I were exposed to what is now a presumed but untested early case of COVID-19. While we both got sick we didn't have clear COVID-19 symptoms. Those tests are now getting approved. An antibody can establish whether you were exposed to the virus and mounted an immune response.
 
Arceneaux
distinguished member (113)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
04/05/2020 03:06PM
I ask you to please stop sullying legitimate discussions with your political and ideological fervency ...
 
uqme2
member (39)member
 
04/05/2020 03:08PM
WhiteWolf: "link that I got data from "
Does anyone know if 1Point3Acres is a credible source for testing info and has anyone purchased any COVID type supplies from them?
 
WhiteWolf
distinguished member(4275)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
04/05/2020 03:33PM
uqme2: "WhiteWolf: "link that I got data from "
Does anyone know if 1Point3Acres is a credible source for testing info and has anyone purchased any COVID type supplies from them?"


The data (testing/cases//deaths) showed has lined up with what the GOV of Iowa reports daily. It seems to lag on recoveries but that could be do to a myriad of reasons. Other states I can't vouch for as I don't listen to their GOV's press conferences. It does seem to update overall data quicker than the Johns' Hopkins site. Have not purchased any supplies.
 
OMGitsKa
senior member (84)senior membersenior member
 
04/05/2020 03:35PM
 
WhiteWolf
distinguished member(4275)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
04/05/2020 03:47PM
One of the reasons I asked the question I did in the Opening (but didn't want to share then) is because in late FEB / early March my entire family was down for the count- in my sons case a week.
This may be a little long so bare with me. Jan 31st my mother (drove down from MPLS) met her brother and sister in law at my house whom had just driven from Philly. I live 2 miles N of I-80- so it's perfect meeting spot if your traveling I-80. They left the same day on a 2 week road trip out West mainly to visit my Aunt (my mom's sister) in San Diego with 4 nights at a casino just E of San Diego but stayed in hotels along the way. You get the drift.

They returned Valentines Day. My mom spent the weekend with my family while her brother and sister in law only stayed for an hour and than proceeded to leave. That weekend my son and my Mother spent lots of time together in a car (he is 14 and trying to get enough "time" behind the wheel for the next stage of drivers license) and he loves driving Grandma's Malibu. After dropping my son off at school on Tuesday the 18th (no school Mon due to PRES Day) my mom went back to her place in MN.

Fast forward to Sun, Feb 23rd. Son comes down with fever/chill/cough - classic flu like symptoms. Misses the entire school week from 24-28th of FEB. Late monday the 24th I start coming down with sore throat. By late Tuesday the 25th my sore throat is gone but a cough and SEVERE chills/ fever (worst chills ever) is now with me along with a headache that was the worst I've ever had. I got no sleep that night (pounding in the head wouldn't allow sleep coupled with fever) and by WED PM I developed a slight difficulty in breathing and told my wife that if what I had (have at the time) was in someone with suppressed immunity / elderly etc. it would not be a good thing. I was too sick to call my mother, but was very concerned. By late Thursday / early Friday - and after breaking a fever with a soaked tee shirt SIX Times I felt myself getting better. It took me weeks to get my lung power back. The only thing similar to this was food poisoning (bad shrimp) I had about 15 years ago, but that didn't last as long and didn't effect my lungs. Than my wife got sick.
She had similar symptoms - but no fever or chills. She was laid up for 2-3 days. My son was diagnosed with INFL A, my wife pneumonia, but than they called 3 days later and said it was bronchitis . I don't go to the doctor for flu like symptoms, because it's a virus and my .02 is you just need to have your body defeat it. My family rarely gets sick, none-the-less , a kick in the A$$ like this was. I called my mother as soon as I could and she too was down for the count for about 48 hours with a pounding head ache/ chills/fever, but no difficulty in breathing. She is doing fine now. 82 years old.
So about 3 weeks ago when the CV-19 deal was really gaining steam I did some research on CV-19, incubation period , R ought # etc. I don't know what I had , cause I never got tested nor were they doing testing for CV-19 in late FEB in Des Moines,IA. CV-19 testing shows in IA that about 7.7% of people tested for CV-19 come back positive. So good chance (over 90%) I didn't have it. But what ever it was that I did have was some terrible stuff. Hours seemed like days. Again- in my thought- someone with suppressed immunity / elderly etc. it would not be a good thing. Hence my question to start this thread.
Thanks for reading.
 
andym
distinguished member(4852)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
04/05/2020 04:17PM
uqme2: "WhiteWolf: "link that I got data from "
Does anyone know if 1Point3Acres is a credible source for testing info and has anyone purchased any COVID type supplies from them?"


It looks credible to me. Read their info on their data. Also see the "About Us" page. The people contributing to the site are identifying themselves.

It looks like the supplies are all links to Amazon.
 
chessie
distinguished member (134)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
04/05/2020 04:34PM
While this thread is, one a certain level, "interesting," I am compelled to share that I come to this site in part as a reprieve from the minutiae of my work-a-day-life. This dialogue is A-OK, but is it appropriate for THIS site? I do appreciate the section on COVID-19 as it relates to how the pandemic may impact our respective BWCAW/Quetico trips/travels. That is highly relevant.
 
WhiteWolf
distinguished member(4275)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
04/05/2020 04:57PM
^^ my bad. I should've labeled this thread Off Topic (OT).
 
carmike
distinguished member(1740)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
04/05/2020 07:08PM
Captn Tony: "Food for thought.
A younger person I know is a mechanic and about Dec. he was working on a plane that flew in from China, He caught the flu and it turned into pneumonia. He was pretty sick for over a week. Was that the flu or corona?
Of course we'll never know!! "


As far as I understand it, places like the Mayo (and others both here in the US and abroad) are developing tests to see if people have the antibodies created to fight COVID. I am inclined to think these tests will be more and more common, as they'll let us know who HAD the virus but has since recovered. These superheroes will then very probably be immune to getting it again, which means they can go back to work, resume normal life, volunteer to help out, etc. etc.

So hopefully sooner rather than later, these kinds of tests will be more widely available. Fingers crossed.
 
WhiteWolf
distinguished member(4275)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
04/05/2020 10:42PM
carmike: "Captn Tony: "Food for thought.
A younger person I know is a mechanic and about Dec. he was working on a plane that flew in from China, He caught the flu and it turned into pneumonia. He was pretty sick for over a week. Was that the flu or corona?
Of course we'll never know!! "



As far as I understand it, places like the Mayo (and others both here in the US and abroad) are developing tests to see if people have the antibodies created to fight COVID. I am inclined to think these tests will be more and more common, as they'll let us know who HAD the virus but has since recovered. These superheroes will then very probably be immune to getting it again, which means they can go back to work, resume normal life, volunteer to help out, etc. etc.


So hopefully sooner rather than later, these kinds of tests will be more widely available. Fingers crossed. "


These tests are going to be huge; not only for defeating CV-19 (at least this round) but in determining the # of people that had it, or at least a good estimate for not everyone who had CV-19 will be tested.

Also- to my original question.
CDC said 7.1% of ALL deaths in America the week before CV-19 mass shutdowns were from flu and pneumonia. CDC shows that deaths from just flu and pneumonia where down over 9% ( 3203 from week 11 ending March 14th to 2930 ending week 12 or March 21,st. link Now, suddenly, the pneumonia rate has plummeted the more we test for CV-19 which is somewhat to be expected, but also one should look at that backwards- when there was no testing for CV-19 for it's obvious CV-19 has been around A LOT longer than the testing for it.

I think the virus is not a hoax, but actually- the more I think about it - far worse than we are being told/believe. I just think it was here long before we started panicking the second week of March. I think it’s infected and killed far more than our current numbers show, in fact , I'am almost certain of that. It’s just been doing so most of the flu/pneumonia season undercover as CV-19. So that again was why I asked.
WW
 
andym
distinguished member(4852)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
04/05/2020 10:58PM
WW, After reading your last post and the previous one about your illness here's an anecdote. According to a friend with a presumed case in Seattle, their doctor statement was that it was circulating by to late January when they got sick. It is quite possible that it was the cause of your illness.

Whether people with positive antibody tests are truly immune is still debated. But Italy is considering allowing such people to go back to work earlier than others.

I would really like to get an antibody test. Stanford's just got approved a couple of days ago.
 
BWPaddler
distinguished member(9225)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
04/06/2020 05:32AM
Ww I am super glad your family is okay and especially your mother!

My 80 year old father visited me when I was in the tail end of my worst symptoms and luckily did not seem to come down with it. At the time I didn't understand that it was highly likely I had it, and as with every visit of his we give him his own guest room and clean the kitchen well.

I look forward to when those antibody tests are widely available.
 
KarlBAndersen1
distinguished member(1256)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
04/06/2020 06:10AM
WhiteWolf: "^^ my bad. I should've labeled this thread Off Topic (OT). "

Or...........folks just simply do NOT have to read it and can go spend time on those topics they enjoy.
Don't apologize.
 
uqme2
member (39)member
 
04/06/2020 08:25AM
I mentioned testing because I keep reading about 30%+- false negatives. At this point, I agree we need a valid antibody test to help get us back to a semblance of a reasonable normal.

Well, that and forward thinking people like this guy.
Argo
distinguished member (109)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
04/06/2020 12:36PM
The counter-narrative to the prevailing course of action employed by most of the western world should not and must not be dismissed nor mocked. The points raised in an earlier post that were used as a source of mockery by animating them with conservative opinion leaders were actually expressed by leading scientists.

One country that heeded those voices and has taken the contrarian road to dealing with Corona virus is Sweden - who never bothered to join the national economic shut-down movement. Schools and business have remained open for the most part. Their rate of infection is commensurate with their neighbours who have opted to shut down.
 
BWPaddler
distinguished member(9225)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
04/06/2020 01:02PM
uqme2: "I mentioned testing because I keep reading about 30%+- false negatives. At this point, I agree we need a valid antibody test to help get us back to a semblance of a reasonable normal.


Well, that and forward thinking people like this guy."


Agreed!
Bushpilot
distinguished member(880)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
04/06/2020 05:28PM
About 16 years ago, we had a little practice session in international spread of an new corona virus that caused a disease called SARS. ( remember? ) The Institute of Medicine did a study and wrote a report titled: Learning from SARS: preparing for the next disease outbreak.

It can be downloaded as a pdf for free here

I have not read it, but was told by a person that has it is pretty much spot on.
 
Pinetree
distinguished member(12801)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished membermaster membermaster member
 
04/06/2020 06:27PM
Today it was said Minnesota has the lowest rate of infection of any state in the nation.
 
WhiteWolf
distinguished member(4275)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
04/06/2020 07:28PM
Pinetree: "Today it was said Minnesota has the lowest rate of infection of any state in the nation."

Yep - cases per 1 million people.

#1- MN 174
#2 WV 192


 
hobbydog
distinguished member(1966)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
04/06/2020 08:18PM
Argo: "The counter-narrative to the prevailing course of action employed by most of the western world should not and must not be dismissed nor mocked. The points raised in an earlier post that were used as a source of mockery by animating them with conservative opinion leaders were actually expressed by leading scientists.


One country that heeded those voices and has taken the contrarian road to dealing with Corona virus is Sweden - who never bothered to join the national economic shut-down movement. Schools and business have remained open for the most part. Their rate of infection is commensurate with their neighbours who have opted to shut down. "


That might be due to the fact that Sweden is a very healthy country, especially compared to places like Italy or the US.
 
BWPaddler
distinguished member(9225)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
04/06/2020 08:48PM
WhiteWolf: "Pinetree: "Today it was said Minnesota has the lowest rate of infection of any state in the nation."


Yep - cases per 1 million people.


#1- MN 174
#2 WV 192



"


I'm not sure I'm proud of those statistics because can't you get those numbers by not testing? Case in point I would not be counted in there although it's highly likely I have had it.
 
Argo
distinguished member (109)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
04/06/2020 09:21PM
BWPaddler: "WhiteWolf: "Pinetree: "Today it was said Minnesota has the lowest rate of infection of any state in the nation."



Yep - cases per 1 million people.



#1- MN 174
#2 WV 192



"



I'm not sure I'm proud of those statistics because can't you get those numbers by not testing? Case in point I would not be counted in there although it's highly likely I have had it."

Same in Ontario. A family of four in my neighbourhood certainly had the Corona virus. All four skated through fine. They contacted health officials but were never tested. Just told to quarantine themselves.

How many more like you or my neighbours? We are not getting reliable data about how lethal this virus really is. Given these sorts of stories it could be materially overblown.
 
andym
distinguished member(4852)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
04/06/2020 09:40PM
From the 538, a really long article by Nate Silver: Coronavirus Case Counts Are Meaningless*

*Unless you know something about testing. And even then, it gets complicated.
 
Zwater
distinguished member(562)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
04/06/2020 09:44PM
Control what you can control. We will get through this.
 
Portage99
distinguished member (461)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
04/06/2020 11:23PM
WW, in response to your comments-

I went down for the count with influenza symptoms in late January. It was like...boom... I was wiped out/totally worthless and came on faster than Ive experienced. Influenza B was circulating here. A man I cared for emergently ended up in the hospital with B. I kinda assumed I had B, then, from this contact. But, as someone pointed out, theoretically, COVID has been circulating awhile. No way to tell without a test.

I’m not going to argue about the difference between this novel virus and influenza.
All I ask is get your information from CDC, WHO, professional organizations, and research articles.

Genomics has shown the virus is wild, not man-made, btw.
 
WhiteWolf
distinguished member(4275)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
04/07/2020 01:42AM
"Genomics has shown the virus is wild, not man-made, btw. "--
Proof?
I will give you that it's wild.(partly). - But did it emanate (escape) from some kind of lab?
As far as the WHO- I have lost all trust with them. ( not that I had any before hand). The WHO leader Tedros has blood on his hands. Covered for China when China knew it was out of control.
 
andym
distinguished member(4852)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
04/07/2020 05:18AM
This Press release from Scripps Research describes the reasoning used to support a wild origin for the virus. It includes a link to the actual paper in Nature Medicine. I wouldn’t generally use press releases but this one seems to be the source of many quotes used in the media and includes that critical link to the journal.
 
Minnesotian
distinguished member(1845)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
04/07/2020 07:49AM
hobbydog: "Argo: "The counter-narrative to the prevailing course of action employed by most of the western world should not and must not be dismissed nor mocked. The points raised in an earlier post that were used as a source of mockery by animating them with conservative opinion leaders were actually expressed by leading scientists.

One country that heeded those voices and has taken the contrarian road to dealing with Corona virus is Sweden - who never bothered to join the national economic shut-down movement. Schools and business have remained open for the most part. Their rate of infection is commensurate with their neighbours who have opted to shut down. "


That might be due to the fact that Sweden is a very healthy country, especially compared to places like Italy or the US. "


Let's not hold Sweden up as a great counter-idea yet... Sweden Prepares to Tighten as Deaths Mount
 
Argo
distinguished member (109)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
04/07/2020 08:22AM
Minnesotian: "hobbydog: "Argo: "The counter-narrative to the prevailing course of action employed by most of the western world should not and must not be dismissed nor mocked. The points raised in an earlier post that were used as a source of mockery by animating them with conservative opinion leaders were actually expressed by leading scientists.


One country that heeded those voices and has taken the contrarian road to dealing with Corona virus is Sweden - who never bothered to join the national economic shut-down movement. Schools and business have remained open for the most part. Their rate of infection is commensurate with their neighbours who have opted to shut down. "



That might be due to the fact that Sweden is a very healthy country, especially compared to places like Italy or the US. "



Let's not hold Sweden up as a great counter-idea yet... Sweden Prepares to Tighten as Deaths Mount "


[On Saturday, Swedish media had reported that the country's government were seeking more powers to implement a lockdown and change its containment status.

But the country's public health authority, holding a press conference on Monday, did not impose any further restrictions.]

Their neighbour Denmark is preparing to return to work next week.
 
OCDave
distinguished member(543)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
04/07/2020 09:27AM
WhiteWolf: ""Genomics has shown the virus is wild, not man-made, btw. "--
Proof?
I will give you that it's wild.(partly). - But did it emanate (escape) from some kind of lab?
As far as the WHO- I have lost all trust with them. ( not that I had any before hand). The WHO leader Tedros has blood on his hands. Covered for China when China knew it was out of control. "


What?!? This make you sound like a social media agitator. Your orinial post seemed sincere (science adjacent) but, this kind of wild speculation (conspiracy theory) makes me suspicious.

Where is your "emanate (escape) from some kind of lab" theory come from?

 
uqme2
member (39)member
 
04/07/2020 11:48AM
My apologies but I suddenly feel like a lab rat. Howdy neighbors! Got herd immunity yet?

Cases per million as of today.
Iowa 335
Minnesota 195
Wisconsin 424

One of those 3 states is holding a state Supreme Court election today - in person. Its largest and most densely populated city has the most cases and 5 polling locations. Wasn't this the week Dr. Birx said it was especially important to stay home? Hmmm.
 
Pinetree
distinguished member(12801)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished membermaster membermaster member
 
04/07/2020 02:32PM
uqme2: "My apologies but I suddenly feel like a lab rat. Howdy neighbors! Got herd immunity yet?


Cases per million as of today.
Iowa 335
Minnesota 195
Wisconsin 424


One of those 3 states is holding a state Supreme Court election today - in person. Its largest and most densely populated city has the most cases and 5 polling locations. Wasn't this the week Dr. Birx said it was especially important to stay home? Hmmm.
"


Seen early pictures of Wisconsin election-lines like 3 blocks long(people spaced) most had masks and waiting time to vote in some places over 3 hours.
 
nofish
distinguished member(2772)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
04/07/2020 02:40PM
BWPaddler: "WhiteWolf: "Pinetree: "Today it was said Minnesota has the lowest rate of infection of any state in the nation."



Yep - cases per 1 million people.



#1- MN 174
#2 WV 192



"



I'm not sure I'm proud of those statistics because can't you get those numbers by not testing? Case in point I would not be counted in there although it's highly likely I have had it."


Do you have any evidence that says Minnesota is denying tests to people suspected of having covid at a higher rate than other states? From what I'm hearing and seeing most of the people getting Covid are not being tested unless they need to seek medical help. If you can weather it at home you likely aren't getting tested regardless of where you live.



 
Unas10
distinguished member(1380)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
04/07/2020 02:56PM
I voted in my village of 600. The old firehouse does double duty for my village and an adjacent township. There were 6 poll workers (all elderly women) behind plexiglass shields. I was given a pen to sign in with and told to keep it for the ballot and take it home. The doors were propped open so no one has to touch them. Separate entry and exit. The other voter and I managed to maintain our distance. Hand sanitizer spray upon entry and before exit.
 
WhiteWolf
distinguished member(4275)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
04/07/2020 03:21PM
OCDave: "WhiteWolf: ""Genomics has shown the virus is wild, not man-made, btw. "--
Proof?
I will give you that it's wild.(partly). - But did it emanate (escape) from some kind of lab?
As far as the WHO- I have lost all trust with them. ( not that I had any before hand). The WHO leader Tedros has blood on his hands. Covered for China when China knew it was out of control. "



What?!? This make you sound like a social media agitator. Your orinial post seemed sincere (science adjacent) but, this kind of wild speculation (conspiracy theory) makes me suspicious.


Where is your "emanate (escape) from some kind of lab" theory come from?


"


Iam not saying it was purposely "designed" in a lab but accidentally was transformed from a lab to a wet market. Several reports of this. Will post when I get to desktop.
 
uqme2
member (39)member
 
04/07/2020 03:33PM
I did the mail in your ballot thing for the first time in my life this year because the poll workers around here have always been little old ladies. Like, think someone's Grandma doing her civic duty because that's what they do.

Bottom line, it just seemed wrong to me. Beautiful day 'round here though.
 
Pinetree
distinguished member(12801)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished membermaster membermaster member
 
04/07/2020 03:36PM
uqme2: "I did the mail in your ballot thing for the first time in my life this year because the poll workers around here have always been little old ladies. Like, think someone's Grandma doing her civic duty because that's what they do.


Bottom line, it just seemed wrong to me. Beautiful day 'round here though."

I live in a rural area in Minnesota and we have a township Townhall. There also it is usually run by ladies with average age like 70 years old plus.
 
04/07/2020 03:41PM
Pinetree: "uqme2: "My apologies but I suddenly feel like a lab rat. Howdy neighbors! Got herd immunity yet?



Cases per million as of today.
Iowa 335
Minnesota 195
Wisconsin 424



One of those 3 states is holding a state Supreme Court election today - in person. Its largest and most densely populated city has the most cases and 5 polling locations. Wasn't this the week Dr. Birx said it was especially important to stay home? Hmmm.
"



Seen early pictures of Wisconsin election-lines like 3 blocks long(people spaced) most had masks and waiting time to vote in some places over 3 hours."


What garbage.
 
04/07/2020 03:46PM
Pinetree: "uqme2: "I did the mail in your ballot thing for the first time in my life this year because the poll workers around here have always been little old ladies. Like, think someone's Grandma doing her civic duty because that's what they do.



Bottom line, it just seemed wrong to me. Beautiful day 'round here though."

I live in a rural area in Minnesota and we have a township Townhall. There also it is usually run by ladies with average age like 70 years old plus."


It seems to be a good part-time job for retired teachers. I know a bunch of them that work elections regularly. "Little old ladies", although I am not sure all of them would like that moniker! :-)
 
OCDave
distinguished member(543)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
04/07/2020 09:13PM
WhiteWolf: "OCDave: "WhiteWolf: ""Genomics has shown the virus is wild, not man-made, btw. "--
Proof?
I will give you that it's wild.(partly). - But did it emanate (escape) from some kind of lab?
As far as the WHO- I have lost all trust with them. ( not that I had any before hand). The WHO leader Tedros has blood on his hands. Covered for China when China knew it was out of control. "




What?!? This make you sound like a social media agitator. Your orinial post seemed sincere (science adjacent) but, this kind of wild speculation (conspiracy theory) makes me suspicious.



Where is your "emanate (escape) from some kind of lab" theory come from?

"



Iam not saying it was purposely "designed" in a lab but accidentally was transformed from a lab to a wet market. Several reports of this. Will post when I get to desktop."


I have done some research on my own. This is one of the "People are sayin' " tropes that get slung out into the void, then repeated with zero validation.

Push back when you hear this ... stuff (a kind word choice but, more precise words exist). Demand more than "People are sayin'. "
 
BWPaddler
distinguished member(9225)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
04/08/2020 02:52AM
nofish: "BWPaddler: "WhiteWolf: "Pinetree: "Today it was said Minnesota has the lowest rate of infection of any state in the nation."



Yep - cases per 1 million people.



#1- MN 174
#2 WV 192




"




I'm not sure I'm proud of those statistics because can't you get those numbers by not testing? Case in point I would not be counted in there although it's highly likely I have had it."



Do you have any evidence that says Minnesota is denying tests to people suspected of having covid at a higher rate than other states? From what I'm hearing and seeing most of the people getting Covid are not being tested unless they need to seek medical help. If you can weather it at home you likely aren't getting tested regardless of where you live.



"


Could be a good point. No evidence, one article said something about MN testing slightly under a national rate, but quoted no source for that.

Hmmmm. Basically I think all numbers are gonna be unreliable except in very broad or relative terms.
 
nofish
distinguished member(2772)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
04/08/2020 10:11AM
BWPaddler: "nofish: "BWPaddler: "WhiteWolf: "Pinetree: "Today it was said Minnesota has the lowest rate of infection of any state in the nation."




Yep - cases per 1 million people.




#1- MN 174
#2 WV 192





"




I'm not sure I'm proud of those statistics because can't you get those numbers by not testing? Case in point I would not be counted in there although it's highly likely I have had it."




Do you have any evidence that says Minnesota is denying tests to people suspected of having covid at a higher rate than other states? From what I'm hearing and seeing most of the people getting Covid are not being tested unless they need to seek medical help. If you can weather it at home you likely aren't getting tested regardless of where you live.




"



Could be a good point. No evidence, one article said something about MN testing slightly under a national rate, but quoted no source for that.


Hmmmm. Basically I think all numbers are gonna be unreliable except in very broad or relative terms."


All numbers you see are certainly open to scrutiny. Its a fast moving situation with incomplete data in a lot of areas so accuracy might suffer.

If MN is showing the lowest rate of infection I would also assume we're seeing a lower rate of those exhibiting symptoms which would naturally lead to a lower testing rate since there wouldn't be the need for testing people who aren't sick.
 
Grandma L
distinguished member(5404)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
04/08/2020 06:31PM
bhouse46: "I applaud the general civility that continues. I have been an observer of the impact of COVID 19 and appreciate perspective. IMHO...
*accurate labeling and the subsequent numbers suggesting cause can not be accurate, there are too many variables.
*the laws of inertia apply to human response to an event. We deny, minimize, etc.
*some consequences are obvious, some not so obvious. Because elective medical treatment is being delayed how many things will go undiagnosed and untreated with what results?
*some tough stuff here. Mother earth takes care of herself. When populations become too dense wars and disease have occurred when relocation was not possible. We watch moose and other species wax and wane and know well the effects of over crowding a territory. And that raises the unpopular questions about whether we should interfere and when we do how many resources at what cost do we invest?


Be smart and respect your emotions. It is a good time to find outlets for the emotions stirred by uncertainty the massive changes in our daily routines, healthy outlets. Use reason in making choices. And remember to wash (pronounced with an r in Iowa) your hands.
"

Thanks for the insight and good advise! I willy less about the "numbers" and more about the ones I love. Stay safe and keep your distance!
 
Pinetree
distinguished member(12801)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished membermaster membermaster member
 
04/08/2020 07:24PM
Interesting facts:
R0 (R-naught), or reproductive number, is basically a quantification of how contagious a pathogen is. It tells you the number of people who each infected person will go on to infect if everyone in a room is naive to the pathogen.

Measles has the highest R0 of any infectious disease that's been measured, at 12-18. That means that every person sick with measles will infect another 12-18 unvaccinated people.

Ebola is around 2. Pandemic influenza is a little higher than 1. MERS is less than 1.

Covid was initially estimated between 2-3. It is now at between 5-6, around where polio, pertussis, mumps, and rubella are
 
BWPaddler
distinguished member(9225)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
04/08/2020 08:07PM
Thanks pine tree! I didn't realize that value was a moving Target. I guess it makes sense that I think we'll have to do a lot more testing before we really figure out the details of how it spreads. Interesting stuff, thanks again.
 
Bushpilot
distinguished member(880)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
04/09/2020 04:47AM
Virus info.
I got this COVID-19 information from a friend in medical research

The Covid virus is not a living organism, but a protein molecule (DNA) covered by a protective layer of lipid (fat). When absorbed by the cells of the ocular, nasal or buccal mucosa, it mutates its genetic code and converts into aggressor and multiplier cells.


* Since the virus is not a living organism but a protein molecule, it is not killed. Rather, it decays on its own. The decay time depends on the temperature, humidity, and type of material upon which it rests.


* The virus is very fragile; the only thing that protects it is a thin outer layer of fat. That is why any soap or detergent is the best remedy, because the foam cuts the fat. That is why you should wash for a full 20 seconds, to make a lot of foam. By dissolving the fat layer, the protein molecule collapses.


* Heat melts fat; this is why it is good to use water above 77 degrees for washing hands and clothes. Additionally, hot water makes more soap foam, making it even more useful. Moisturize hands that are dry from too much washing, because the molecules can hide in the micro cracks. The thicker the moisturizer, the better - vaseline is recommended. Keep your nails clipped so that the virus does not easily hide there.


* Alcohol, or any mixture with alcohol over 65% (or 130 proof) dissolves fat, especially the external lipid layer of the virus.

* Listerine is 65% alcohol and will work.

* Any mix with 1 part bleach and 5 parts water directly dissolves the protein, breaking it down from the inside.

* Peroxide dissolves the virus' protein, but one must use it pure which can damage skin.

* UV light breaks down the virus' protein, but also breaks down collagen in skin, eventually causing wrinkles and potentially skin cancer.

* Vinegar does not break down the protective layer of fat so is not effective.

* Antibiotics are useless. The virus is not a living organism like bacteria, and you can't kill what is not alive.


* While the virus is lying on most porous surfaces it is quite inert... but will still take time to degenerate to a non-threat:

3-6 hours on fabric

4 hours on copper and wood

24 hours on cardboard

42 hours for metals other than copper

72 hours on plastics.

Don't shake clothing, sheets, or other cloth; any virus molecules resting on these items can float in the air for up to three hours and conceivably lodge in one's nose.


* The virus molecules are very stable in external cold or artificially chilled areas, such as air conditioners in houses and cars. The virus also needs moisture and darkness to stay stable. Therefore, dehumidified, dry, warm, and bright environments will degrade it more quickly. The more confined the space, the more concentration of the virus there can be. The more open or naturally ventilated, the less.
 
yellowcanoe
distinguished member(4793)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
04/09/2020 07:11AM
You really can't look at statistics in a static format. They are ever changing. The centers of outbreaks will change with time. They are finding out that the outbreak in NYC has a European genome. Plenty of people flew from Europe and entered the US in NYC
Now the epicenters are changing locations to areas adjacent to NYC like Long Island and Washington and Philly.

In Maine we have a .000055 percent rate of infection but the State will be on precautions a while even altering the tourist season.. The virus will travel with the tourists and the aim is to keep the health system viable to care for victims. We get 38 million visitors a year and can't handle that many. I am pretty sure cruise lines will not be allowed to unleash their human cargoes.

Just a matter of time for migration from bigger cities in the Midwest to you
 
04/09/2020 08:39AM
Bushpilot's relay of info, above, for protecting against virus seems pretty good. The first paragraph, to me, is a bit off. The corona viruses are what are known as RNA viruses. They have RNA and proteins (proteins are different than the nucleic acids, DNA and RNA) inside an envelope of lipids and other proteins. The outer proteins of that envelope known as spike proteins enable the viral particles to bind to and deliver inner proteins and RNA into cells of the host (in this case, humans). Inside the host cells the viral RNA essentially co-opts the cells' regular machinery to generate more viral proteins (RNA is a code molecule for the building of proteins) and then viral particles. Since the replication of the viral RNA within the host cell is not always flawless, the RNA sequence of the virus can mutate over time...
That's all I have. What I don't understand very well is, the other events that occur that make us so sick from this...
All of this does not conflict with the prevention advice that Bushpilot relayed.
 
Grandma L
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04/09/2020 08:58AM
 
Grandma L
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04/09/2020 08:58AM
Back to the OP question.
I would guess that since the testing was and is so poorly and highly unavailable, many who have died will have their cause of death listed as pneumonia, asthma, heart issues or other causes and not be listed, counted or considered as having Covid 19. So, the data is initially flawed from the start.
And, at this point, what is the point of dissecting data? It might be of value as data professional, and medical folks study and try to make assessments but this knowledge will not save lives. Blame will not save lives. Suffering, death, families grieving, it is still a tragic situation with no easily or quickly identified end or solution.
In my family there are several individuals who are in positions of leadership at businesses large and small. They mostly "control" their worlds but, they can't control this. They do not take direction from others very well or at all. They don't like this situation and would like to call it all a hoax or political nonsense. They can't control it so they want to deny and discredit the situation in total and the medical experts who tried to warn us and are trying to guide us through. Denial, blaming, finger pointing and spreading false information will not stop it - denial will only increase the problem.
Ok, soap box back on the shelf. Hope my rant didn't offend. Please stay healthy and do what you can to protect yourselves and families.
 
Bushpilot
distinguished member(880)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
04/09/2020 09:15AM
Rtallent you may be right. I personally have very little knowledge about any virus and if I get info that may help prevent this virus I will forward it.

Here was another reply to the email I got:

While the general info is mostly valid, there are inaccuracies in the description of the virus.

This is not a DNA-based virus, nor is DNA a protein. This is an RNA virus. Minor detail, perhaps, but since that's where the info starts, it's worth noting.

Furthermore, this virus does not cause mutations to the genetic code of the host cells. The line stating that "it mutates its genetic code and converts into aggressor and multiplier cells." is utterly incorrect. The general way that this virus works is that it uses the host cell's protein synthesis machinery (its ribosomes and associated molecules) to synthesize viral proteins using the viral RNA as a template. In doing so, the host cell allows for the production of more viruses which then escape the host cell and go on to infect other cells. Again, it does not cause direct mutations to the host cells as the above post implies - some viruses do indeed write their genomes directly into own own cells, but this one does not.

The health information, which is obviously the most important part, is generally correct based on what I have read.
 
uqme2
member (39)member
 
04/09/2020 10:41AM
Pinetree: "Interesting facts:
R0 (R-naught), or reproductive number, is basically a quantification of how contagious a pathogen is. It tells you the number of people who each infected person will go on to infect if everyone in a room is naive to the pathogen.


Measles has the highest R0 of any infectious disease that's been measured, at 12-18. That means that every person sick with measles will infect another 12-18 unvaccinated people.


Ebola is around 2. Pandemic influenza is a little higher than 1. MERS is less than 1.


Covid was initially estimated between 2-3. It is now at between 5-6, around where polio, pertussis, mumps, and rubella are"


The very beginning of this video has an excellent expiation on how that "reproductive number" sort of math works in real life.

The difference between 1.4 and 3 can be huge!
 
inspector13
distinguished member(4106)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
04/09/2020 11:20AM
Pinetree: "Covid was initially estimated between 2-3. It is now at between 5-6, around where polio, pertussis, mumps, and rubella are"
I just spoke with my parents about this last night. I reminded them that before the vaccines were extensively used, the US had reoccurring polio epidemics as late as the 1950s.

And hey, no one has yet disputed whether a virus is not a living organism. I am in the school of thought that they evolved from early life forms. Given their parasitical nature, it is easy to see how they lost some of the attributes of "life". What an efficient means of reproduction.

Prions, on the other hand, blow my mind; and they can remain activated for a long long time.

 
Portage99
distinguished member (461)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
04/09/2020 12:03PM
I thought others might find these websites interesting. I am not trying to start an argument... so disclaimer that I know problems exist in all organizations, reporting issues are ongoing, and other credible sites exist. If you do not like WHO please just disregard.

WHO releases situation reports every day. They are nice snapshots of current number of reported cases (with map) and new information. It is interesting reading.

WHO Situation Reports


Here is the link for clinical drug trials related to COVID-19. If you are interested in details, you can click on the "clinicaltrial.gov" tab for a more detailed search of a specific medication or a specific location. clinicaltrial.gov is kind of a clunky website, but it's interesting to see what is happening around the world.

Drug Trials
 
nofish
distinguished member(2772)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
04/09/2020 03:15PM
Grandma L: "
And, at this point, what is the point of dissecting data? It might be of value as data professional, and medical folks study and try to make assessments but this knowledge will not save lives.
"


Data can certainly save lives. Data can drive decisions, those decisions can save lives or cost lives depending on the decision that is made.

Data can also help inform the masses. Being told to stay home, close your business, don't socialize, don't go to the BWCA, etc can all be easier to accept if we can all see how serious of a situation this is and the data can help show that to some extent.

A lot of people were saying this is just like the normal flu. Its the numbers that prove this is not just another flu.

While I agree that the numbers are not 100% accurate at this time I think they are telling enough and do show what is working, what is not working, and can help drive future decisions.
 
Grandma L
distinguished member(5404)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
04/09/2020 04:53PM
nofish: "Grandma L: "
And, at this point, what is the point of dissecting data? It might be of value as data professional, and medical folks study and try to make assessments but this knowledge will not save lives.
"

Data can certainly save lives. Data can drive decisions, those decisions can save lives or cost lives depending on the decision that is made.
Data can also help inform the masses. Being told to stay home, close your business, don't socialize, don't go to the BWCA, etc can all be easier to accept if we can all see how serious of a situation this is and the data can help show that to some extent.
A lot of people were saying this is just like the normal flu. Its the numbers that prove this is not just another flu.
While I agree that the numbers are not 100% accurate at this time I think they are telling enough and do show what is working, what is not working, and can help drive future decisions. "

nofish, I agree with you. I guess my point was that it takes data experts to formulate, project and give us direction not paddlers projecting. And, with the lack of testing, our data is massively incomplete. Thanks for the clarifications.
 
Captn Tony
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04/09/2020 06:25PM
No one around him got sick but he doesn't really work close to anyone. They did check for the flu and other pathogens and they answer they came up with was he had an unidentified virus.
 
WhiteWolf
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04/13/2020 06:40AM
I'am no epidemiologist, and I didn't stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night but here goes-

I don't understand how Fauci can claim we can limit the spread of COVID-19 by social distancing... you can only SLOW the spread ( All of the policies meant to enhance social distancing, when proposed/announced a few weeks back emphasised reducing the strain on medical resources when the spread peaked, not reducing total cases or fatalities. But now, as they announce reduced expected case load, they credit social distancing policies being plugged into the models as driving the reduction) What am I missing? .-- You can't keep people apart forever, and a vaccine is probably a year away and will likely be only partly effective. So, it seems to me as a layman the best choice is let low-risk people (the relatively young) spread the virus among themselves, increasing herd immunity, (this has probably been going on for longer than we think- likely since JAN) while encouraging high risk people to stay home. This could ultimately save lives, as suggested by experts (who remained anonymous for fear of retribution) in this article

thoughts? Why Severe Social Distancing Might Actually Result In More Coronavirus Deaths
 
WhiteWolf
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04/13/2020 10:07AM
 
backwoodshunter
member (17)member
 
04/13/2020 10:24AM
Citing an article that has an author that is anonymous is not the best idea at any time and during a pandemic is even worse. That's the equivalency of citing a blog post and comparing it to a research based peer reviewed journal. This is the time to listen to the foremost experts from a variety of institutions such as CDC, John Hopkins, Harvard Health, Coronavirus Task Force lead by medical experts Dr. Birx and Dr. Fauci, the US Surgeon General ect.
 
uqme2
member (39)member
 
04/13/2020 12:06PM
WhiteWolf: "I'am no epidemiologist, and I didn't stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night but here goes-


I don't understand how Fauci can claim we can limit the spread of COVID-19 by social distancing... you can only SLOW the spread ( All of the policies meant to enhance social distancing, when proposed/announced a few weeks back emphasised reducing the strain on medical resources when the spread peaked, not reducing total cases or fatalities. But now, as they announce reduced expected case load, they credit social distancing policies being plugged into the models as driving the reduction) What am I missing? .-- You can't keep people apart forever, and a vaccine is probably a year away and will likely be only partly effective. So, it seems to me as a layman the best choice is let low-risk people (the relatively young) spread the virus among themselves, increasing herd immunity, (this has probably been going on for longer than we think- likely since JAN) while encouraging high risk people to stay home. This could ultimately save lives, as suggested by experts (who remained anonymous for fear of retribution) in this article


thoughts? Why Severe Social Distancing Might Actually Result In More Coronavirus Deaths "


It's hard for me to tell where you'e aiming with that, WW. Words mean things but can't limit and slow often be used interchangeably?

Even my 92 year old mother in assisted living isn't completely isolated from the virus and I wouldn't doubt many of us are getting small doses our immune systems can handle well enough over a period of time. That is how, IMO, we are currently building herd immunity as well as slowing and perhaps, limiting the spread.

Since many don't even know they are infected, I'd not want to sit in the pew in front of someone spreading the virus for an hour -- possibly getting a lethal dose. Standing six feet in front of them for a few minutes at the grocery store is what it is since we all have to eat.

viral load
 
andym
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04/13/2020 12:26PM
Earlier in this thread, we were discussing how to estimate the number of deaths due to COVID-19 without adequate testing. A NY Times article now shows that NY City, has double the usual number of deaths over the last month.

The number of deaths per day was far lower at the start of the last month. So most of this larger than usual number of deaths came recently. Hence, if this analysis is done again at the end of April it may look far worse than double the number of deaths.
 
OCDave
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04/13/2020 12:53PM
WhiteWolf: "I'am no epidemiologist...


I don't understand how Fauci can claim we can limit the spread of COVID-19 by social distancing... "


When the problem and it's solution are too complex for you personally to understand, perhaps it is best to put your faith in someone who has dedicated an entire career developing an expertise in that area.
 
uqme2
member (39)member
 
04/13/2020 01:51PM
WhiteWolf: " Micheal Osterholmon Herd Immunity--- about 35:00 minutes in-- but being a month out some really good foresight... "

Hey, wait a minute. Aren't you the weather guy with funky models and other such voodoo, WW?

:) :) :)

Sorry about whatever commercial ad folks might be targeted by near the beginning. ;)
 
WhiteWolf
distinguished member(4275)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
04/13/2020 02:52PM
OCDave: "WhiteWolf: "I'am no epidemiologist...



I don't understand how Fauci can claim we can limit the spread of COVID-19 by social distancing... "



When the problem and it's solution are too complex for you personally to understand, perhaps it is best to put your faith in someone who has dedicated an entire career developing an expertise in that area. "


And others have not? The article is worth a response? Or have they not dedicated an entire career - in fact to the point of basically giving up them selves?

I would appreciate an educated response to my post- not a harsh judgment,
 
OCDave
distinguished member(543)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
04/13/2020 03:24PM
WhiteWolf: "OCDave: "WhiteWolf: "I'am no epidemiologist...



I don't understand how Fauci can claim we can limit the spread of COVID-19 by social distancing... "




When the problem and it's solution are too complex for you personally to understand, perhaps it is best to put your faith in someone who has dedicated an entire career developing an expertise in that area. "



And others have not? The article is worth a response? Or have they not dedicated an entire career - in fact to the point of basically giving up them selves?


I would appreciate an educated response to my post- not a harsh judgment,"


You linked to a partisan web site, with a heading "Wuhan Virus", with an anonymous author and anonymous contributors. My "Educated response" is "Don't post that garbage here as if it has merit."

I suggest you WW judge your sources more harshly.

PS: I remind you that I treated your initial post as sincere. You asked for "Smart People" to weigh in on your "Honest Question". In retrospect, your question seems less honest.

 
WhiteWolf
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04/13/2020 03:51PM
"Don't post that here as if it has merit."
Merit or not- it deserves to be seen. Much has been posted worse. It does have merit - anonymous or not- it would be blasted either way. I will post what I want as long as the mods deem it prudent. Why is such an "opposite" view viewed so harsh? It's just another view in which- the last I checked - can be had in this country?


 
WhiteWolf
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04/13/2020 04:20PM
uqme2: "WhiteWolf: " Micheal Osterholmon Herd Immunity--- about 35:00 minutes in-- but being a month out some really good foresight... "


Hey, wait a minute. Aren't you the weather guy with funky models and other such voodoo, WW?


:) :) :)


Sorry about whatever commercial ad folks might be targeted by near the beginning. ;)"


Yep- that's me. Forecasting weather on weather models alone. NO SYNOPTIC weather forecasting- just go with computer models-- whats one need CALC 6 or all the PHYSICS and thought involved?? Anyone that reads my weather progs on this thread knows different- or at least they have that idea. ( I hope>?) I'am wrong more than right, but pretty good compared to "voodoo"-- but thanks for the comparison, yeah-- I'am that weather guy.

and BTW- the "models" used to forecast this pandemic are very similar to the long range "models" used to predict weather. The weather guy gets hammered for overdoing "weather" in the long range but people take these same models to heart in this situation. Truth be told- it's usually overblown (weather) - this case of the pandemic has never been seen before- hence the hysteria on the past models is coming down. Much like snow events and hurricanes. It's "usually" never as bad as what models show. Seriously - the math involved in these models is precariously the same. And eerie.
 
Portage99
distinguished member (461)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
04/13/2020 04:28PM
The questions are valid. There are hundreds and hundreds of scientist working on these questions. I guess my frustration comes in when someone says they don’t want to read CDC, WHO, scientists work...If you check out some of those links, it’s amazing the amount of work that has been done and continues on. I am interested in all of these things too. I read quite extensively on the current thought and the evolving thought. It’s shocking and interesting the amount of data that has been collected to answer some of these questions that you have. While not perfect, there’s a lot of information out there.

I always look at the source of the information. If they don’t have a last name and they don’t have credentials or list their experience on the topic, if there’s no information about the website or the goals of the organization… You know all the standard reliable source stuff....For me, I’m not interested. Because there’s no way to judge the content.

A student sent me a blog post on a Potential medication. She asked my opinion. The man just listed his first name, no credentials, no nothing. I sent her some other links from scientist working on clinical trials for that medication. Why would you listen to somebody who has a first name only listed, when you can go to a constantly updated source by experts?
 
FlambeauForest
distinguished member (133)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
04/13/2020 04:42PM
My view point differs than the vast majority here.
Selectively believing one set of information because it is consistent with what we want to believe ignoring any information that is inconsistent with what we want to believe is the greatest sin. I'm not putting my faith in politicians on TV or the so called experts institutionalized in big pharma. Not saying this isn't serious, just not buying the media doom and gloom.

Never let a good crisis go to waste.

If you appreciate a different view check this out White Wolf.

Dr. Shiva
 
OCDave
distinguished member(543)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
04/13/2020 05:06PM
Can’t everyone see that 5G was first tested in Wuhan. It’s not a coincidence

“5G was first installed in Wuhan and now other major cities. Coincidence?

No worries though. Alex Jones is in possession of the cure. If only the FDA would be open to an alternate viewpoint.
 
uqme2
member (39)member
 
04/13/2020 05:09PM
All I know for sure is my President (who is still talking as I type) has one hell of great tan for a blond guy.
 
RTurner
distinguished member (132)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
04/13/2020 05:29PM
Portage99: " Why would you listen to somebody who has a first name only listed, when you can go to a constantly updated source by experts?"
Because the truth coming from the experts is scary, uncomfortable and requires people to make sacrifices. The falsehoods coming from the first name only people and unnamed sources is easier to hear. As Simon and Garfield said, 'A man hears what he wants to hear and disregards the rest'
 
WhiteWolf
distinguished member(4275)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
04/13/2020 05:38PM
FlambeauForest: "My view point differs than the vast majority here.
Selectively believing one set of information because it is consistent with what we want to believe ignoring any information that is inconsistent with what we want to believe is the greatest sin. I'm not putting my faith in politicians on TV or the so called experts institutionalized in big pharma. Not saying this isn't serious, just not buying the media doom and gloom.


Never let a good crisis go to waste.


If you appreciate a different view check this out White Wolf.


Dr. Shiva "

Watched ( during) as this was posted. I'am sure it will get lambasted here. Thanks for posting.
 
OCDave
distinguished member(543)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
04/13/2020 06:44PM
 
Pinetree
distinguished member(12801)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished membermaster membermaster member
 
04/13/2020 06:47PM
The modeling is a tool like all modeling and depends on various variables you input. I actually think it is fairly accurate maybe as it could get. Isolation and stay at home is the number one variable and in many areas a excellent job was done doing that. Like a fire, you starve the fire it will die out. Yes once people get back out the fuel will be there to ignite again and spread, but at the same time certain spots have had the virus and maybe act as variables. Who knows the virus mutates a little as most do, you don't know where it will end up.
 
Portage99
distinguished member (461)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
04/13/2020 06:58PM
Just to set the record straight since I may have been falsely implicated (not sure who it was directed at)- : ) I’m not an ally of Big Pharm and have advocated against patent abuse which harms us all but especially low-resource countries. Clinical trials are very important to follow and most are robust. There’s a pot of gold involved. Side note: Doctors Without Borders (MSF) has started a campaign to make any Coronavirus vaccines be patent-less or Issued limited patents. I’m not sure if I can post the information, but if you’re interested you can Google it. They’ve had successful campaigns to make vaccines available to low resource countries when life-saving drugs were super expensive because of patents.

I’m actually quite the skeptic and look at multiple, multiple sources for my opinions. I don’t think any sources are perfect, but I think it’s dangerous to ignore science when it comes to infectious disease.

 
backwoodshunter
member (17)member
 
04/13/2020 07:03PM
WhiteWolf: "OCDave: "WhiteWolf: "I'am no epidemiologist...



I don't understand how Fauci can claim we can limit the spread of COVID-19 by social distancing... "




When the problem and it's solution are too complex for you personally to understand, perhaps it is best to put your faith in someone who has dedicated an entire career developing an expertise in that area. "



And others have not? The article is worth a response? Or have they not dedicated an entire career - in fact to the point of basically giving up them selves?


I would appreciate an educated response to my post- not a harsh judgment,"


This article is not worth mentioning, not worth discussing on any level, has zero validity more importantly not recognized, cited or published in a single peer reviewed journal nor will it be.
There is a massive difference between what you buy on the streets and news papers vs what researchers submit to be reviewed and the various medical profession base decisions on. For example at hand, do you really think the USFS is going to read something like this to make a decision on?
 
Grandma L
distinguished member(5404)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
04/13/2020 07:30PM
WhiteWolf: " Micheal Osterholmon Herd Immunity--- about 35:00 minutes in-- but being a month out some really good foresight... "
I listened to the total hour and a half, Dr. Olsterholm is one of my favorites. I was his patient years ago at the U of M when I had an unusual virus. He was the only one to diagnose it. Yes, he explained herd immunity in that interview, but didn't say it was what should be done in this situation. We don't even know if you contract Covid 19 what immunity you acquire or how long it will last so, the herd immunity is still a big question! without proper testing - it is all unknown. Oh but wait, Trump said any one who wanted a test could get one? Right?
 
Moosepatrol
member (35)member
 
04/13/2020 07:54PM
Grandma L: "WhiteWolf: " Micheal Osterholmon Herd Immunity--- about 35:00 minutes in-- but being a month out some really good foresight... "
Trump said any one who wanted a test could get one? Right?"

I went to get a test but they told me "you lost your doctor and you lost your plan ...so no test for you.
 
Pinetree
distinguished member(12801)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished membermaster membermaster member
 
04/13/2020 08:39PM
Moosepatrol: "Grandma L: "WhiteWolf: " Micheal Osterholmon Herd Immunity--- about 35:00 minutes in-- but being a month out some really good foresight... "
Trump said any one who wanted a test could get one? Right?"

I went to get a test but they told me "you lost your doctor and you lost your plan ...so no test for you."


Sounds like a very high number of people even with symptoms in Minnesota are not getting tested, according to Hospitals and the Governor. Even people with symptons are not getting tested. Other states are saying the same.
The Feds are tying up certain chemicals needed for the test. The hope is the anti-body blood test will be available soon.
 
nofish
distinguished member(2772)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
04/13/2020 09:35PM
The idea of herd immunity and the idea that we should have done nothing and let the virus run its course and build herd immunity seems to be a popular idea right now. At least I've seen it on my Facebook feed more often. Honestly the concept makes sense, after all it is natures way. However, you have to look at the toll that would take if we sat back and let nature run its course.

Covid-19 is highly contagious with each person infected giving it to at least 2-3 others. I've seen estimates as high as 5 other people. That can quickly lead to exponential growth like we've seen all over the world. 1 becomes 3 becomes 9 becomes 27 and pretty soon you've got millions upon millions infect. The positives of that are we are likely build herd immunity. Its unproven and we don't know how long the immunity would last but best guesses are there would be at least some immunity built up.

The issue is that out of the confirmed cases we've had about 5% of them end up in the hospital. With the exponential growth possible due to how contagious the virus is hospitals would quickly be overrun by patients. Hospitals being over run isn't just a crazy theory, we've seen in places around the world. When hospitals are overrun like they were in Italy the death toll among confirmed cases jumps form 1-2% up to almost 13% in Italy.

We're already at 500,000+ confirmed cases in the US with social distancing and most of the country on lock down. Without those measures we'd probably have 10x that number. 5,000,000 confirmed cases with a 5% hospitalization rate puts you at 250,000 hospitalized patients in less than a month and most of those centered in various hot spots. Even if doing nothing and letting the virus run its course and build herd immunity is the right course of action its an awfully hard decision to make knowing you won't be able to treat all of those that need treatment and that a lot of people will die because of it. Any of you willing to sign your name on that decision?

 
jhb8426
distinguished member(1166)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
04/13/2020 10:06PM
OCDave: " The link you needed "
Slightly OT...
Whoa. hope my daughter doesn't see that!!

A couple of months ago my daughter asked me to put a new cd drive in her computer. When I went to take the cover off there was a piece of gold foil on the power cord plug. I had to remove it to remove the plug. I neglected to put it back on when I was done, leaving it on the desk. A bit later my grand daughter came in all excited to announce to her mother that I didn't put the gold sticker back on the computer and someone needed to fix it ASAP as it is needed to suppress unhealthy emf sources...
 
Argo
distinguished member (109)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
04/14/2020 06:41AM
"
This article is not worth mentioning, not worth discussing on any level, has zero validity more importantly not recognized, cited or published in a single peer reviewed journal nor will it be. "


I'm a bit troubled by this statement. It's more than likely the article was posted anonymously out of some fear of retribution or sanction for not towing a party line or because the author's institution has a gag order on their staff or some reason - possibly tied to money and or politics to which the noble pursuit of science (like every field) is not immune from their influence.
 
Grandma L
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04/14/2020 12:17PM
This post started as a question regarding the number of deaths, cause of death and the reporting.
A Doc friend of mine sent me this chart - check it out.
U.S. Average Daily Cause of Death

cause of death data
In a little over a month Covid 19 went to the top of the scale!
 
nofish
distinguished member(2772)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
04/14/2020 01:28PM
Argo: " "
This article is not worth mentioning, not worth discussing on any level, has zero validity more importantly not recognized, cited or published in a single peer reviewed journal nor will it be. "



I'm a bit troubled by this statement. It's more than likely the article was posted anonymously out of some fear of retribution or sanction for not towing a party line or because the author's institution has a gag order on their staff or some reason - possibly tied to money and or politics to which the noble pursuit of science (like every field) is not immune from their influence."


While that is all possible its also possible that the author has no credentials or experience to back up what they are saying. The fact is you just don't know so you have to look at it with a critical eye. There is a whole lot of good factual evidence based information out there. However, for every 1 evidence based article there are 5 more that are nothing more than conjecture, theory, opinion,or out right incorrect information.

In the internet age its good to have a healthy does of skepticism about everything you read.
 
OCDave
distinguished member(543)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
04/14/2020 02:30PM
Grandma L: "This post started as a question regarding the number of deaths, cause of death and the reporting.
...
"


I don't participate in Facebook. After the last election I congratulated myself that I was beyond the influence of the Russian trolls. Now, I am reminded that BWCA.com is simply another "social media" platform and just as susceptible as Facebook to nefarious influence. I am convinced this thread was started to sew misinformation and conspiracy. The OP has changed direction of this thread on several occasions with additional unsubstantiated and even discredited rumors. The OP has also suggested that any actual information should be treated as suspect: endorsing it as product of the Deep State, Big Pharma or the Scientific Establishment. Unfounded, unattributed rubbish is heralded as honest and heroic.

WhiteWolf may not be a Russian Troll but, he/she is doing their work.
 
Bushwacker
distinguished member (268)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
04/14/2020 03:31PM
OCDave: "Grandma L: "This post started as a question regarding the number of deaths, cause of death and the reporting.
...
"
WhiteWolf may not be a Russian Troll but, he/she is doing their work. "

Lighten up Francis.

https://youtu.be/C6cxNR9ML8k
OCDave
distinguished member(543)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
04/14/2020 04:27PM
 
drrick
distinguished member(553)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
04/14/2020 11:58PM
Wow, what a great discussion. Many great and thoughtful points have been made. I don't mind the political flavor of some of the posts. Molly and others have helped me understand other world views than mine with often sharp or overtly political speech. This virus issue is ripe for political lines of discussion.

Much has been made about listening to the science. Folks tell us we must trust the science. Well most of us trust the science when the results are in line with our political views. By the way. Serious studies have shown that a significant amount of Medical and other research is outright fraud. Political and economic motivations of those who sponsor research clearly effects interpretation of data and by extension conclusions.

At the risk of sounding political. I am very happy and quite satisfied with the way POTUS is directing the response to Covid 19. It does not offend me to hear others express other sentiments. Iron sharpens iron.

Go ahead and express your opinion. But, be kind. We are all brothers and sisters.
Looking forward to June 6th and that wonderful Mudro portage.
 
backwoodshunter
member (17)member
 
04/15/2020 07:00AM
drrick: "Wow, what a great discussion. Many great and thoughtful points have been made. I don't mind the political flavor of some of the posts. Molly and others have helped me understand other world views than mine with often sharp or overtly political speech. This virus issue is ripe for political lines of discussion.


Much has been made about listening to the science. Folks tell us we must trust the science. Well most of us trust the science when the results are in line with our political views. By the way. Serious studies have shown that a significant amount of Medical and other research is outright fraud. Political and economic motivations of those who sponsor research clearly effects interpretation of data and by extension conclusions.


At the risk of sounding political. I am very happy and quite satisfied with the way POTUS is directing the response to Covid 19. It does not offend me to hear others express other sentiments. Iron sharpens iron.

lol. Im not going to review reliable sources of information 101 here or discuss the dynamics of the research process ect. Research isnt fraud, most/all research has limitations or a select few variables that affect its results which are always stated but that would entail you actually reading that study :) Gov Walz, Trump, USFS ect are going to lean on the medical community and when someone gets sick or say unfortunately is diagnosed with cancer, they are going to read and cite the most relevant trials or published studies say in American Journal of Medicine for example.
 
schweady
distinguished member(6996)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
04/15/2020 07:26AM

Just here closing quotes...
 
WhiteWolf
distinguished member(4275)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
04/15/2020 05:26PM
 
Castaway
distinguished member (186)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
04/15/2020 08:26PM
 
OCDave
distinguished member(543)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
04/15/2020 11:42PM
 
drrick
distinguished member(553)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
04/18/2020 07:57PM
About that French study, An associate of mine suggested that the study was done on Liberal and progressive types with serious co-morbidity issues. Reportedly there were more than a few with clinical symptoms of chronic TDS. So by extension the study may have been seriously flawed , in his words (junk science).
 
Castaway
distinguished member (186)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
04/19/2020 07:38AM
drrick: "About that French study, An associate of mine suggested that the study was done on Liberal and progressive types with serious co-morbidity issues. Reportedly there were more than a few with clinical symptoms of chronic TDS. So by extension the study may have been seriously flawed , in his words (junk science)."
An associate of mine said it was rock solid.
 
Bushpilot
distinguished member(880)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
04/19/2020 08:07AM
Maybe someone should tell the scientist at the University of Minnesota that hydroxychloroquine doesn't work.

They have been testing for more then a month.

On a side note the French....LOL
 
OCDave
distinguished member(543)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
04/19/2020 11:21AM
Bushpilot: "Maybe someone should tell the scientist at the University of Minnesota that hydroxychloroquine doesn't work.


They have been testing for more then a month.


On a side note the French....LOL"


Is it the really the UofM scientists who need to learn that Hydroxychloroquine doesn't work? Seems there is another guy on TV that needs some convincing. ;)

More serious thought: There are physicians who continue to prescribe therapies with an overwhelming amount of evidence that they are ineffective. The rationale is that there may be some statitically insignificant but, minimal clinical benefit and afterall, there really is no harm. Perhaps, the UofM study need to reach a preset number of enrollees to determine not only the drugs potential benefit but also what level of harm that therapy conveys. (Just spit ballin' on my part)

On the otherhand, perhaps the therapy has a small benefit that does outweight the harm. Again, reaching that preset number of enrollees would be necessary to reach a level of significance to be trusted.
 
Grandma L
distinguished member(5404)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
04/19/2020 04:12PM
There are so many conspiracy theories and false claims flying around - do some checking and reading.
Politifact- Politifact-corona virus
Fact Check- Fact Check
Snopes - Snopes
 
drrick
distinguished member(553)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
04/20/2020 07:34AM
Mental conditioning effects what we are able to see. The inability to perceive truth outside of our beliefs is termed inattentional blindness. Instead of believing what we see, we see what we believe.

For many of us right now, what we believe is changing. We are considering new truths as old constructs are failing. Boundaries of thought are being challenged. The conditioners are freaking out as so many are leaving the thought plantation.

So much of what we have been told to believe just is not so. A wise mature friend once said. It is not what you don't now that holds you back. It is more what you do know that isn't s so.

Trust the plan.
 
missmolly
distinguished member(6959)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
04/20/2020 07:58AM
drrick: "Mental conditioning effects what we are able to see. The inability to perceive truth outside of our beliefs is termed inattentional blindness. Instead of believing what we see, we see what we believe.


For many of us right now, what we believe is changing. We are considering new truths as old constructs are failing. Boundaries of thought are being challenged. The conditioners are freaking out as so many are leaving the thought plantation.


So much of what we have been told to believe just is not so. A wise mature friend once said. It is not what you don't now that holds you back. It is more what you do know that isn't s so.


Trust the plan. "


You're reminding me of the Sphinx.
 
drrick
distinguished member(553)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
04/20/2020 08:46AM
Missmolly ,Hello and I sure hope you are well. I miss the old days on the politics forum. Have a great day. I will be leaving a gift for you with Lynn at VNO about the first week in June. Rick
 
drrick
distinguished member(553)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
04/20/2020 08:46AM
 
missmolly
distinguished member(6959)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
04/20/2020 10:00AM
drrick: "Missmolly ,Hello and I sure hope you are well. I miss the old days on the politics forum. Have a great day. I will be leaving a gift for you with Lynn at VNO about the first week in June. Rick"

Hey, Doc! When I posted the link, I thought some might reach for their pearls, but I hoped you laughed. What other posters might not know is that you and I go way back and whereas some like to tip beers or tell a good 'un, we like to tussle!

However, don't leave that gift. I live in Maine and will never reach Lynn within the foreseeable future. Sigh.
 
drrick
distinguished member(553)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
04/20/2020 10:51AM
Missmolly, I did have a good time with the link, My folks live in Friendship ME. Great state populated with wonderful people. One of my children works in a large local hospital as a Hospitalist. She tells me the therapeutic drugs ( CQ ) are working very well.
We own and operate an organic blueberry farm here in SC. The berries that grade out as seconds soon after become blueberry wine. The wine makes great gifts.
Take care my friend. Rick
 
missmolly
distinguished member(6959)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
04/20/2020 11:01AM
drrick: "Missmolly, I did have a good time with the link, My folks live in Friendship ME. Great state populated with wonderful people. One of my children works in a large local hospital as a Hospitalist. She tells me the therapeutic drugs ( CQ ) are working very well.
We own and operate an organic blueberry farm here in SC. The berries that grade out as seconds soon after become blueberry wine. The wine makes great gifts.
Take care my friend. Rick"


As you know, blueberries grow everywhere here in Maine that there's a sliver of sunshine. Our berries our bitsy, but intense, unlike Michigan's berries, which are big and watery to my taste. How about yours? Bitsy or big?
 
drrick
distinguished member(553)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
04/20/2020 11:57AM
Our berries grow on rabbiteye bushes. We keep the bushes trimmed to about 6 to 7 ft tall. the berries are larger than what you would be used to in Maine.
 
drrick
distinguished member(553)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
04/20/2020 12:25PM
here's a better picture
 
missmolly
distinguished member(6959)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
04/20/2020 01:13PM
Rick, you live in Heaven! I'm so happy for you.

Say, what kind of fish swim in your pond?
 
drrick
distinguished member(553)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
04/20/2020 05:37PM
Molly, just got home from work long day with a 97 patient visits for me. Back when we first locked horns on the political forum I believed that I was a conservative with a Libertarian lean. Thankfully after sparring with you and a few others for several years I came to learn that I'm actually a classical liberal. I was sorry to see the political Forum nixed. Have a great day.
 
missmolly
distinguished member(6959)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
04/20/2020 05:55PM
drrick: " Molly, just got home from work long day with a 97 patient visits for me. Back when we first locked horns on the political forum I believed that I was a conservative with a Libertarian lean. Thankfully after sparring with you and a few others for several years I came to learn that I'm actually a classical liberal. I was sorry to see the political Forum nixed. Have a great day."

You have a great day too, doc. I'm still smiling thinking about your slice of Heaven.
 
missmolly
distinguished member(6959)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
04/21/2020 07:48AM
Say, Doc, I enjoyed your photos so much that I thought I'd try and reciprocate. Maine is very different than your home. Its 90% trees, so we live under a canopy. Being maritime, it's nearly a rain forest, so it's mossy. You can see that in the first photo. The fourth photo is a blueberry field just up the road. 99% of its berries go unpicked because there are just too many to pick. The fifth photo is one of my woodland gardens in the rain. That's a look I see a lot! The last photo is a town just down the road. Again, more brooding skies and rain!
 
bwcasolo
distinguished member(1958)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
04/22/2020 06:24AM
 
adam
Moderator
 
04/22/2020 06:43AM
bwcasolo: " link. "

Please folks stop posting the stupid political links you get from facebook and your favorite political emails or rags which match what you want to believe or someone wants you to believe. Don't be a fool and a tool.

“It's easier to fool people than to convince them that they have been fooled." - Mark Twain
 
missmolly
distinguished member(6959)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
04/22/2020 06:47AM
bwcasolo: " link. "

Adam already articulated frustration with simply linking rather than making a point.

Here's what Adam wrote: "Providing a link to crap is not providing discussion."

I must admit that I giggled when I saw that "Internal medicine specialist Annie Bukacek, MD of Hosanna Health Care in Kalispell, Montana" was their primary source.

Then my giggles grew into chuckles when I saw that "coconut health," "medical kidnap," and "vaccine safety" were half of your link's primary topics.
 
drrick
distinguished member(553)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
04/22/2020 07:02AM
All right Miss Molly you've convinced me. I need to go back to Maine and visit my parents again. Thanks for reminding me how special Maine is.
 
missmolly
distinguished member(6959)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
04/22/2020 07:07AM
You can come visit me too, Doc. I'm a gentle hostess. I've been told that I can seem hard on the Internet, but am sweet in person.
 
drrick
distinguished member(553)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
04/22/2020 07:08AM
bwcasolo: " link. "


Thank you for posting this excellent article that makes some very interesting points. When we look back and figure in the thousands/ millions of Americans who got thru the virus without symptoms and recovered. The adjusted death rate will likely be well below 1%.
Antibody testing is on the way. Should be very revealing.
 
adam
Moderator
 
04/22/2020 07:31AM
drrick: "bwcasolo: " link. "



Thank you for posting this excellent article that makes some very interesting points.
"


Are you a medical doctor?
 
HawgHunter
member (41)member
 
04/22/2020 07:40AM
adam: "bwcasolo: " link. "


Please folks stop posting the stupid political links you get from facebook and your favorite political emails or rags which match what you want to believe or someone wants you to believe. Don't be a fool and a tool.


“It's easier to fool people than to convince them that they have been fooled." - Mark Twain"


I'm not sure I would call the link "stupid".  The posted link reflects the true fact that there is not consensus in the medical community about covid prevalence, morbidity and mortality or what should be done.  It quotes physicians and is appropriately referenced.  I agree with some of it and am skeptical of other parts of it.  
For example, I agree with the sentiment expressed by the doctor in the article that speculative (non tested/verified) covid 19 should not be coded as a covid death if another proximate cause is likely.  

However, I do think it sounds appropriate to code as a covid death, for example, the diabetic who has been diabetic for 15 years and comes in with covid and dies with diabetes and covid.  Diabetes is a risk significant factor and what is the likelihood that the person who had diabetes for 15 years and dies NOW, right after they came down with severe covid; in this case it seems the covid was indeed the proximal cause of death and so the experts who say it should be coded as a covid death do sound more reasonable.  

The point is: Experts disagree.  There is not a consensus at this time.   That should be obvious to anyone paying close attention.  But of course people "pick a side" and claim that the subset of the expert/professional community they have decided to align with is correct and the other experts (physicians, virologists) who disagree are hacks.  The the camp of experts that people choose to align with (and call everyone else "stupid") is too often determined by prior political/ideological factors rather than dispassionate consideration of all opposing views and arguments.  We are all guilty, in varying degrees, to some level of confirmation bias whereby we seek only the experts and arguments and facts that support our prior perspective and ignore or discount experts and evidence that is contrary to our priors.  
 
HawgHunter
member (41)member
 
04/22/2020 07:41AM
adam: "drrick: "bwcasolo: " link. "



Thank you for posting this excellent article that makes some very interesting points.
"



Are you a medical doctor?"


He might not be a doctor but the people quoted and referenced in the article are doctors. The medical community is not in consensus now so let's look at what all of them are saying, on both sides. Please don't lock this thread. Allow reasonable viewpoints and polite discussion and disagreement to take place.
 
missmolly
distinguished member(6959)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
04/22/2020 07:54AM
Rick and HH, you're missing the point. This is Adam's website. He doesn't want links in lieu of dialogue.*

Furthermore, neither of you have apparently contributed to this website. C'mon, at the very least, pay your way.


*In the old Politics Forum, I used to post funny media that I'd culled from the Internet. Adam didn't want to spend the bandwidth that HE BUYS on those images and said so. I immediately stopped and have never again posted media that didn't belong to me. Why? Because this website is his blood and sweat. Not yours. Not mine. Again, the least we can do is donate.
 
Minnesotian
distinguished member(1845)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
04/22/2020 09:08AM
HawgHunter: "adam: "drrick: "bwcasolo: " link. "

Thank you for posting this excellent article that makes some very interesting points.
"


Are you a medical doctor?"


Allow reasonable viewpoints and polite discussion and disagreement to take place."


"Health Impact News" (from that link) is owned by "The National Vaccine Information Center," the leading organization to promote anti-vaccination.

Make what you will with that information.

 
drrick
distinguished member(553)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
04/22/2020 09:17AM
Molly it's been great chatting with you again. I've got to see some patients a little bit busy right now but have a great day.
 
adam
Moderator
 
04/22/2020 10:08AM
drrick: " Molly it's been great chatting with you again. I've got to see some patients a little bit busy right now but have a great day."

Again I will ask you if you are a medical doctor as you seem to be implying as such?
 
adam
Moderator
 
04/22/2020 10:16AM
Molly thanks for the plug. Politics sells better than a BWCA site.

I apologize for singling out individuals, but I think there is some duty in trying to inform people that you are being suckered into wasting your time by reading complete garbage. And you are further wasting other people's time, and potentially causing damage, by reposting them and trying to discuss them. The articles and news may tell you what you want to hear, but your are more then likely being fed misinformation and frankly wasting your time. I know I am wasting my time trying to persuade anyone that they have been fooled, but I won't be party to propagating it. If you want to talk about bear scat or moose plums, we are more then happy to have that discussion 2 forums to the right, but discussing the political excrement left all over the web...not here.

Second, as I said in a different thread, this is some serious stuff. I was traveling in Asia during the SARS epidemic. That was small potatoes compared this virus. It is asymptomatic, it is sticky and spreads like crazy and it kills people. It has and is going to hurt the economy, but I for one am not going to trade lives for dollars. What I am sadly hearing from people is they are willing trade lives for dollars in the name of liberty. But does life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness also apply to the older people, those with weak immunities, and health care workers? Does killing them, locking them up for a year, or making them work in intrepid conditions deprives them of their right?

In the context of the canoeing world, this isn't just about the liberty of wearing a life jacket or not, it is about taking the life jackets out of other people canoes and tossing them in the woods.

"If you don't read the newspaper, you are uninformed. If you do read the newspaper, you are misinformed." - Twain

"To a philosopher all news, as it is called, is gossip, and they who edit and read it are old women over their tea" - Thoreau
 
missmolly
distinguished member(6959)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
04/22/2020 10:56AM
Glad to help, Adam.

Adam, I followed COVID-19 from the first news reports. At this website and others, people compared it to the flu and SARS and other outbreaks. It has always, from the very beginning, struck me as something different. Bigger. Deadlier. I warned and warned folks and many dismissed me, here and at other websites and even in my family and among friends and neighbors, but sadly, I've been right all along.

I have clicked on many links at this website and been taken to websites that I never even imagined existed. I have long wondered where people find such sites and what's wrong with Scientific American, Nature, The Guardian, and The New York Times.
 
Aldy1
distinguished member (181)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
04/22/2020 11:17AM
Thank you, Adam.

"The dumbing down of American is most evident in the slow decay of substantive content in the enormously influential media, the 30 second sound bites (now down to 10 seconds or less), lowest common denominator programming, credulous presentations on pseudoscience and superstition, but especially a kind of celebration of ignorance”
- Carl Sagan, The Demon-Haunted World: Science as a Candle in the Dark
 
Pinetree
distinguished member(12801)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished membermaster membermaster member
 
04/22/2020 01:39PM
Adam I like your statement:
"In the context of the canoeing world, this isn't just about the liberty of wearing a life jacket or not, it is about taking the life jackets out of other people canoes and tossing them in the woods".


Yes we do have a responsibility to others also beside ourselves.
 
missmolly
distinguished member(6959)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
04/22/2020 03:12PM
Pinetree: "Adam I like your statement:
"In the context of the canoeing world, this isn't just about the liberty of wearing a life jacket or not, it is about taking the life jackets out of other people canoes and tossing them in the woods".



Yes we do have a responsibility to others also beside ourselves."


Indeed.
 
04/22/2020 06:20PM
I also appreciated the life vest analogy. And doing moderator work...

Theories, like a house of cards, are often based on multiple variables that hopefully work together to support the next level. Lots of card houses out there, it seems almost a contest about who can build the best card house. As a profession I study human behavior in the social environment and notice how under stress strong emotion elevates and reason deteriorates. So many children building card houses to fill the time. Glad someone is keeping us in line, thanks again Adam.
 
missmolly
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04/22/2020 06:58PM
bhouse46: "I also appreciated the life vest analogy. And doing moderator work...


Theories, like a house of cards, are often based on multiple variables that hopefully work together to support the next level. Lots of card houses out there, it seems almost a contest about who can build the best card house. As a profession I study human behavior in the social environment and notice how under stress strong emotion elevates and reason deteriorates. So many children building card houses to fill the time. Glad someone is keeping us in line, thanks again Adam."


Cool, bhouse. I once studied something similar and along the way, learned that as stress increases, the probability of reverting to hoary responses, even if they were long proven to lack efficacy, increases. Perhaps we can counter with courage. Hemingway and JFK, two men who both pushed through great pain (Read what JFK endured when PT-109 was sunk. It's jaw-dropping and Hemingway was in a plane that crashed and the rescue plane also crashed, among many other physical exploits.), both described courage as grace under pressure. We're all under pandemic-pressure and we all better grab for grace.
 
sns
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