Currently, their is a fire ban. You can read it here

It include all fires, camp stoves, and lanterns at this point. this is to protect first responders and is not directly related to dry conditions.

I would expect to see an update on Friday from the FS based on the Governors announcement today on stay at home.

Lots of speculation going around. I am sure this order will change or be removed. It is a matter of when.

Thank you for the update. This one hurts my head and is very frustrating. Are there stats that show how many fires were created in the BWCA due to a small Jetboil or Pocket rocket stove. I just spent 10 minutes trying to figure out how a fire with these could happen. Maybe if they tip over if a person wasn't watching at a certain angle? I was on the fence of doing our annual Crooked Lake trip with the virus and this would seal the deal. I couldn't imagine doing a trip with no cooked food and morning coffee. Also, having a campfire each night is part of the fun, but again I can understand that ban. I'm hoping if this is to deter campers in the part due to the virus they come out and say it as most would understand the circumstances.

Thanks, Adam. I read the notice but what confuses me is that term, stove fire. How can they expect us to be allowed to fish but we won't be able to cook them? Seems something isn't right. Especially when you go to the reservation site and there is no mention of any fire ban. Perplexing

Hawbakers: "Thanks, Adam. I read the notice but what confuses me is that term, stove fire. How can they expect us to be allowed to fish but we won't be able to cook them? Seems something isn't right. Especially when you go to the reservation site and there is no mention of any fire ban. Perplexing
"

Yes, it is an odd term "Stove Fire", but it does include any type of stove or lantern. There is no question about that. Their is speculation that the FS will lift the fire ban or at least write an exception in for stoves before the BWCA opens. We may see that today. If we don't, then gorp, powerbars, apples, and PB&J. But increased risk of hypothermia! The FS could postpone the opening as well today.

Hawbakers: "Thanks, Adam. I read the notice but what confuses me is that term, stove fire. How can they expect us to be allowed to fish but we won't be able to cook them? Seems something isn't right. Especially when you go to the reservation site and there is no mention of any fire ban. Perplexing
"

People are speculating that they want to technically open, for publicity, politics, or whatever, but discourage people from actually using it. This way the locals can go fishing, but out-of-towners are inconvenienced enough to get them to cancel the trip.

I wish they would simply make a hard stance one way or the other. Either cancel and give a full refund to all permits during the Stay-At-Home order extension, or drop the fire ban that seems to be targeting campers.

walleye sushi

Talk to my outfitter about my upcoming trip and they said camping stoves are OK to use even under the current fire ban. Forest Service was supposed to issue another statement that clarified camping stoves are fine to use but no open fires or using wood burning (like cast iron for heat) stoves. Check with an outfitter to make sure.

Thanks for all of the up to date fire ban information Adam. It is much appreciated. A complete ban on all stoves does seem over the top and something that will be changed eventually.

In either case, for those of us that would prefer a warm meal while canoeing, there are chemical heat stoves that are flameless that would be an option. I will consider these if the ban were still in place later this year when I have trips planned.

Search for Barocook Flameless heat systems, Old Faithful Flameless Geyser cooking system, or MRE Flameless Heater.

The Forest Service has lifted the stove part of the ban. No wood or charcoal fires though.

Cass Lake and Duluth, MN. May 4, 2020 – To enhance visitor’s experience during these evolving times,
the Chippewa and Superior National Forests have revised the April 17, 2020 campfire ban to allow for
the use of gas stoves and gas grills.
In an effort to minimize the risk to first responders in the event of wildfire on National Forest System
lands, the two forests will continue to restrict campfires and the usage of wood burning and charcoal
devices.
The Forest Service understands and acknowledges that Tribal members may fulfill their federal 1855
treaty rights within boundaries of their treaty ceded territory and are exempt from the restrictions, but
they may be subject to restrictions by applicable tribal authorities.
The Superior National Forest acknowledges that Tribal members may fulfill their federal treaty rights
within boundaries of the ceded territory in the 1854 treaty and are exempt from the restrictions and are
subject to restrictions by applicable tribal authorities.
When you recreate, please keep in mind to:
• Avoid visiting the forest if you are sick and/or experiencing COVID-19 symptoms.
• Follow CDC guidance on personal hygiene and social distancing before and during your visit to
the forest.
• Take your trash with you when you leave. Trash overflowing the receptacles becomes litter and
can be harmful to wildlife and attract predators.
• Please make arrangements to use the restroom before or after your visit to the forest.
Unmanaged waste creates a health hazard for our employees and for other visitors.
• If an area is crowded, please search for a less occupied location. Also consider avoiding the
forest during high-use periods

I’m bringing kids with in three weeks. We are just doing one minor portage and base camping.

I have this at home that I use on local camping trips. We cook on it with a grate.
I know I’m crazy for wanting to carry in a big propane tank but would this be allowed?

https://www.amazon.com/dp/B000L4HSH8/ref=cm_sw_r_sms_c_api_i_19mSEb9W00R4J Portable propane fire pit

That's a good question. From the product page "Camp Chef Gas Fire Pits are allowed for use in most fire ban restrictions, check with the local Ranger Station before use."

So if the Covid restrictions are relaxed later in the month is there a chance that the ban on campfires will also be lifted, maybe by June?

Dbor: "I know I’m crazy for wanting to carry in a big propane tank but would this be allowed? "

Wow, that's a load even w/o the propane tank.

No charcoal, so does that apply to people with a cabin outside the boundary waters? Can you grill out on the deck?

A1t2o: "No charcoal, so does that apply to people with a cabin outside the boundary waters? Can you grill out on the deck? "

My understanding is yes, you can have grills and even campfires on private land within the boundaries of the Superior National Forest.

All private land falls under the fire protection rules of the MN-DNR, at this point the MN-DNR allows campfires and charcoal grills. The campfire ban is for public land administered by the US Forest Service/IE Superior National Forest.

When I worked for the USFS out of Isabella I was a fire warden for the MN-DNR, I would write out burning permits for citizens that wanted to burn large brush piles on their private land. My burn permit book was a DNR book, even though I worked for the United States Forest Service.

Here are todays burning restrictions from the DNR, notice they allow campfires in the arrowhead region and all of northern Minnesota.

Linden, thanks for the clarification.

Looks like campfires are now allowed.....am I reading this map correctly?

map

Caboose: "Looks like campfires are now allowed.....am I reading this map correctly?


map "

This is the confusing part, the map you cited is a map by the MN-DNR.
Campfires are allowed on land that falls under the fire protection jurisdiction of the MN-DNR Forestry. That is basically private and most county land in Mn.
Some city municipalities, military land/DOD, the Superior and Chippewa National Forests have fire restrictions that at times, are different from the MN-DNR.

To answer your question, campfires are not allowed on land administered by the Superior National Forest and the BWCA at this time.

Thanks, do you know where to find the latest fire ban information for the Superior National Forest and BWCA?

Caboose: "Thanks, do you know where to find the latest fire ban information for the Superior National Forest and BWCA?"

I think this is the link and includes the BWCA

Forgive me if this is a dumb question. I see they are getting some rain today, is one day of rain enough to categorically reduce the risk of wildfires?

It'll take a lot more then one day of rain to lift this ban. It was already pretty dry in the area, and with the Covid-19 issues regarding first responders, I'd be surprised to see it lifted unless we get a good week of soaking rain.

Tony

Just out of curiosity, what is the fine for having a fire during a ban, and how does the FS enforce it? Not that I’m planning on going against the rules, but if someone was on a Lake by themselves, who would know they had one? I would hate to be the one who started a forest fire during a ban tho, the fine and jail time would be outrageous

IowaFishinGuy: "Just out of curiosity, what is the fine for having a fire during a ban, and how does the FS enforce it? Not that I’m planning on going against the rules, but if someone was on a Lake by themselves, who would know they had one? I would hate to be the one who started a forest fire during a ban tho, the fine and jail time would be outrageous"

The fine is 5k. The fine if you start a forest fire is the cost of fighting it. They fly planes over during a ban.

I find it interesting that there is a fire ban in the BWCAW but campfires are allowed in Voyaguers National Park.

beeeye: "I find it interesting that there is a fire ban in the BWCAW but campfires are allowed in Voyaguers National Park.
"
Seen years the State had a ban and the BWCA fires were allowed. I believe once things settle down in many ways and a little greenery and rain it will open. Voyaguers is a little more supervised and people watching.

beeeye: "I find it interesting that there is a fire ban in the BWCAW but campfires are allowed in Voyaguers National Park.
"

Probabally because the two different land management agancies fall under two different departments.
Voyageurs is under the Dpeartment of the Interior.
The Superior NF and BWCA fall under the Department of Agriculture.

The FS has lifted the fire ban. Please note that this can change based on conditions as it is dry. And be careful with fire.

FS notice

If I had a trip starting next Monday through most of next week I would not "Slam dunk" it on having a fire legally- esp with a late entry in the next week. Current forecasts are warm/dry and it wouldn't surprise me at all if the FS put a partial ban on fires (say having one between 7-10pm) in the near future. Now that we are dealing we some semblance of normalcy in "fire bans" (compared to the obvious "stay at home" ones before)-- current guidance shows no to little precip for the foreseeable future and how that impacts things are up in the air. Just don't be surprised if a limited fire ban is put in place soon... One thing helping out though is increased moisture (dewpoints) even if no rain falls and heavy dew/fog in the next few mornings etc. Any East winds will help.

Not in the current forecast - but FOG/heavy dew is not commonly/accurately predicted until the last minute- but synoptic conditions do favor this over the next week or so- especially if daytime dewpoints rise.

If you have a trip in the next 2 weeks or so- be prepared to bring a stove and/or extra two tanks of gas. The FS may have jumped the gun on this and revert back to "common sense" without the CV-19 scare is what I'am saying.

I have no trip until June 6th- just letting others know

Ely area forecasts

WhiteWolf: "If I had a trip starting next Monday through most of next week I would not "Slam dunk" it on having a fire legally- esp with a late entry in the next week. Current forecasts are warm/dry and it wouldn't surprise me at all if the FS put a partial ban on fires (say having one between 7-10pm) in the near future. ----------------------------------------
If you have a trip in the next 2 weeks or so- be prepared to bring a stove and/or extra two tanks of gas. The FS may have jumped the gun on this and revert back to "common sense" without the CV-19 scare is what I'am saying.
"

Agreed WW,
I am very suprised the USFS is allowing campfires on the 18th given current fire danger indexes and predicted weather for the next 10 days. The thousand hour fuels (woody vegetation with a diameter 3 inches and bigger) are at 14 percent for much of the arrowhead.
14% is exceptionally dry according to the MN-DNR. It will take a sustained rain/drizzle over a 2-3 day period to bring those up to 20%, which is the moisture content where they will not sustain fire.

Look at the bottom graph on Thousand Hour Fuels.

Fire weather watch
for Monday. I'd expect more to be issued or even a warning by mid-week. No clue why they are allowing fires now- but not 2 weeks ago.

WhiteWolf: "Fire weather watch for Monday. I'd expect more to be issued or even a warning by mid-week. No clue why they are allowing fires now- but not 2 weeks ago.


Bumped up/increased to a "Red Flag Warning" today.
Previoulsy the SNF used the Covid-19 exposure/threat to firefighting crews as the reason for restricting campfires. We still have the Covid threat today and it is getting hotter and drier, but campfires are allowed.
I'm scratching my head also WW, hope everyone who has a campfire is extremely careful, we are most likely in conditions as we were when the Ham Lake fire started.

Red Flag Warning.

Sounds like a little rain this weekend. The rain southern Minnesota got-like 3 inches missed us, except for a few drops. It seems like rain this year always goes about 30 miles south of us.

Just saw on the TV from Duluth tonite, a five acre wildfire broke out near Birch Lake today. Sorry can't find any links.
If this is correct, hope they get a handle on it soon.

LindenTree: "Just saw on the TV from Duluth tonite, a five acre wildfire broke out near Birch Lake today. Sorry can't find any links.
If this is correct, hope they get a handle on it soon."

It was a extremely windy day.

LindenTree: "Just saw on the TV from Duluth tonite, a five acre wildfire broke out near Birch Lake today. Sorry can't find any links.
If this is correct, hope they get a handle on it soon."

which Birch lake??

Mocha: "LindenTree: "Just saw on the TV from Duluth tonite, a five acre wildfire broke out near Birch Lake today. Sorry can't find any links.
If this is correct, hope they get a handle on it soon."


which Birch lake??"

This was all that I found:
Crews Battle Small Wildfire in Hermantown

Mocha: "LindenTree: "Just saw on the TV from Duluth tonite, a five acre wildfire broke out near Birch Lake today. Sorry can't find any links.
If this is correct, hope they get a handle on it soon."


which Birch lake??"

Mocha, I might have to walk that wildfire back, perhaps I misheard the news last night, I wasn't watching just listening. Thought it was odd I could not find a link for it.
The MD-DNR/USFS has not updated their situation report for today.

"Sorry all but maybe it is a good thing"

It is very dry in northern Minnesota right now, with very little rain in the future.
We might get a fire ban soon.

rainfall trends for the weekend are looking less and less and more South (of the BWCAW) than previously thought. It's hard to imagine a ban not being put in place before the Holiday Weekend- but what do I know? ELY has seen 1.21" of rain/melted snow in the last 49 days (since April 1st)- nearly 2.5" below normal for that time period. (still 11 days to go.) and by far the driest in recorded recent memory.

What happens if there is no ban entering the BWCA, but then they implement a fire ban once you've disconnected from the internet and you're still making fires for 7 days?

scheedz: "What happens if there is no ban entering the BWCA, but then they implement a fire ban once you've disconnected from the internet and you're still making fires for 7 days?"

link

LindenTree: "WhiteWolf: "Fire weather watch for Monday. I'd expect more to be issued or even a warning by mid-week. No clue why they are allowing fires now- but not 2 weeks ago.



Bumped up/increased to a "Red Flag Warning" today.
Previoulsy the SNF used the Covid-19 exposure/threat to firefighting crews as the reason for restricting campfires. We still have the Covid threat today and it is getting hotter and drier, but campfires are allowed.
I'm scratching my head also WW, hope everyone who has a campfire is extremely careful, we are most likely in conditions as we were when the Ham Lake fire started.


Red Flag Warning. "

I have looked at data from 2007 (Ham Lake Fire) and much other data and scratching my head also why no fire ban. I would post the data here but its mainly meteorological data and overall weather patterns which is too deep for this thread but in a nut this current weather pattern (as I alluded to in a different thread) is not one conducive to copious rains in the Northland ( for some time) *- especially since the last one just missed to South- the pattern is not conducive to something happening similar like what just happened in S.MN. That was more an "outlier" than what is currently- has been- synoptically and forecasted to continue. A minimal saving grace (previously mentioned before) may be the added moisture via dewpoints and RH in the morning(s) that help through the weekend - but insolation and wind will quickly mix this little amount of added of moisture away.

* of course by early June (my entry) things will suddenly change to a monsoon with so much rainfall and moisture that a fire will be allowed only because it's not likely to happen even when one wants to have one. I will be one. All kidding aside- things are dry as pointed out by Bushpilot and will only get drier until a major pattern shift in the atmosphere. For those interested- this pattern currently is mainly controlled (the MAIN driving force- the QB of the football team- many players on the field have you) happens in the equatorial Pacific and an index (big tool- adjustable wrench have you) us long range forecasters use and has been rock solid this late winter early spring-- more so than I can ever remember is ---
MJO- Madden Julian Oscillation
I guess I did post one thing "technical" or "deep" -google "MJO weather" for a better understanding if you so like but the above link also shows forecasts and previous phases and what certain phases mean for Temp/Precip for different regions. One of the best out there. Again- Just one player on the field- but lately the MJO has been more than the QB- more like the entire 11 player offense in American Football. Something to check out if your bored and into long range weather patterns. (It's also showing us an active hurricane season in the ATL fwiw)- along with surface Temps in the E. Pacific behaving more LA NINA like ,
Slow night in weather here- just thought I would show some why's before the what.
If my idea is somewhat right on a more detailed basis (much deeper HA!) - let's see if we get a tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico by June 6th-13th. (or so) Sorry for the boredom,

Looks like we will be getting 30-40% chances of rain this weekend on the Grand Marisa side. Looks like I need to dig out the tarps.

https://www.weatherforyou.com/reports/index.php?pands=hungry+jack+lake%2Cminnesota

Be incredibly careful out there, folks. I see that 93% of all available overnight paddle permits have been reserved for Fri and Sat this weekend. This compares with 80% capacity during Memorial Day Weekend 2019. Watch your fires. Be nice to one another.

schweady: "Be incredibly careful out there, folks. I see that 93% of all available overnight paddle permits have been reserved for Fri and Sat this weekend. This compares with 80% capacity during Memorial Day Weekend 2019. Watch your fires. Be nice to one another.
"

Like I said, I see fishing license and Turkey license sales just exploded this year in Mn. The trend of using the outdoors is going to be real high this year, also Quetico is closed. You want a permit, you better reserve one now. Just don't get greedy and reserve one and not use it.

We should find out the fate of The 2020 Minnesota State Fair tomorrow. The Great Minnesota Get Together could take place in Northern Minnesota instead of Falcon Heights if people decide it’s a good place in late August to social distance and get something on a stick.

schweady: "Be incredibly careful out there, folks. I see that 93% of all available overnight paddle permits have been reserved for Fri and Sat this weekend. This compares with 80% capacity during Memorial Day Weekend 2019. Watch your fires. Be nice to one another.
"

Schweady-

Do you think an increase in reserved permits through Memorial Day (numbers) have made up (or will eventually make up down the road) for no overnight permits (no numbers) for the first 17 days of May? You seem to be an expert in this field. I will hang up and listen,but if so, (if #'s are catching up to what a "normal" season would look like) it's says to me that people are rescheduling trips/ or more people are going since it's open. I guess a person really wont know until after said time as probably many people have "insurance" permits reserved in case and likely many of those would be cancelled. Your charts btw are awesome.

I have a strong feeling that it's going to be very difficult to do my spur of the moment trips like I normally do. Usually I don't get a permit until less than a month before my trip and have always still been able to get a decent Entry Point and go somewhere new that I want to explore.

I think there will be more people going on BWCA trips this year, I'm still waiting on whether or not there will be soccer and if we do have it how much longer will it go than normal and what the schedule will be, and my wife's work schedule will be a lot trickier than normal which plays a part in when I go.

I'm looking forward to our end of July family stay at Rockwood more than ever this year.

WhiteWolf: "schweady: "Be incredibly careful out there, folks. I see that 93% of all available overnight paddle permits have been reserved for Fri and Sat this weekend. This compares with 80% capacity during Memorial Day Weekend 2019. Watch your fires. Be nice to one another.
"


Schweady-


Do you think an increase in reserved permits through Memorial Day (numbers) have made up (or will eventually make up down the road) for no overnight permits (no numbers) for the first 17 days of May? You seem to be an expert in this field. I will hang up and listen,but if so, (if #'s are catching up to what a "normal" season would look like) it's says to me that people are rescheduling trips/ or more people are going since it's open. I guess a person really wont know until after said time as probably many people have "insurance" permits reserved in case and likely many of those would be cancelled. Your charts btw are awesome.
"
Thanks.

There's no real way of knowing for sure, but a combination of factors more than likely come into play:

* Folks who annually go in during the Fishing Opener moving to Plan B
* Folks on furlough or newly unemployed with some unexpected available time
* Folks who've always wanted to be "first ones in" but never dared chance the icy conditions that inevitably accompany The Opener, now taking advantage of a unique situation
* An increased number of folks who see The Outdoors as their new Social Distancing strategy

I'm not convinced that this is truly a marked increase in new user participation; during these times, it takes a particularly prepared and determined visitor to plan and carry out a wilderness trip while observing appropriate COVID precautions.

Additionally, due to data collection time constraints, my May 2019 data showing "only" 80% capacity was pulled a month in advance of Memorial Day Weekend 2019. Several additional permits could have been pulled in late May 2019 to narrow that 13% gap. It would be cool if the USFS would actually publicly share data showing permit usage history. Alas...

One thing that is certain: this weekend is always one of the most heavily reserved every year.

Writing this from thunder point on knife....it seems a little busier than usual but no too much. I had kek to myself last night. There were probably no shows.

WhiteWolf: "LindenTree: "WhiteWolf: "Fire weather watch for Monday. I'd expect more to be issued or even a warning by mid-week. No clue why they are allowing fires now- but not 2 weeks ago.




Bumped up/increased to a "Red Flag Warning" today.
Previoulsy the SNF used the Covid-19 exposure/threat to firefighting crews as the reason for restricting campfires. We still have the Covid threat today and it is getting hotter and drier, but campfires are allowed.
I'm scratching my head also WW, hope everyone who has a campfire is extremely careful, we are most likely in conditions as we were when the Ham Lake fire started.



Red Flag Warning. "


I have looked at data from 2007 (Ham Lake Fire) and much other data and scratching my head also why no fire ban. I would post the data here but its mainly meteorological data and overall weather patterns which is too deep for this thread but in a nut this current weather pattern (as I alluded to in a different thread) is not one conducive to copious rains in the Northland ( for some time) *- especially since the last one just missed to South- the pattern is not conducive to something happening similar like what just happened in S.MN. That was more an "outlier" than what is currently- has been- synoptically and forecasted to continue. A minimal saving grace (previously mentioned before) may be the added moisture via dewpoints and RH in the morning(s) that help through the weekend - but insolation and wind will quickly mix this little amount of added of moisture away.


* of course by early June (my entry) things will suddenly change to a monsoon with so much rainfall and moisture that a fire will be allowed only because it's not likely to happen even when one wants to have one. I will be one. All kidding aside- things are dry as pointed out by Bushpilot and will only get drier until a major pattern shift in the atmosphere. For those interested- this pattern currently is mainly controlled (the MAIN driving force- the QB of the football team- many players on the field have you) happens in the equatorial Pacific and an index (big tool- adjustable wrench have you) us long range forecasters use and has been rock solid this late winter early spring-- more so than I can ever remember is ---
MJO- Madden Julian Oscillation
I guess I did post one thing "technical" or "deep" -google "MJO weather" for a better understanding if you so like but the above link also shows forecasts and previous phases and what certain phases mean for Temp/Precip for different regions. One of the best out there. Again- Just one player on the field- but lately the MJO has been more than the QB- more like the entire 11 player offense in American Football. Something to check out if your bored and into long range weather patterns. (It's also showing us an active hurricane season in the ATL fwiw)- along with surface Temps in the E. Pacific behaving more LA NINA like ,

Sorry for the boredom,
"

Slow night in weather here 5/20- just thought I would show some why's before the what.
If my idea is somewhat right on a more detailed basis (much deeper HA!) - let's see if we get a tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico by June 6th-13th. (or so)

Cristobal anyone?> I called it nearly 3 weeks ago, people give long range forecasters heat- I get it, but give some synoptic forecasters kudos when we nail it, as my post is so old , many don't remember. Not tooting my own horn- but that people dont call me out one way or the other. You be the judge, Weather people can't nail it 48 hours out is different than pattern recognition, physics for the layman. It can be done, just saying to defend folks like myself agst most media you see..


Christobal_(2020)

WhiteWolf: "WhiteWolf: "LindenTree: "WhiteWolf: "Fire weather watch for Monday. I'd expect more to be issued or even a warning by mid-week. No clue why they are allowing fires now- but not 2 weeks ago.




Bumped up/increased to a "Red Flag Warning" today.
Previoulsy the SNF used the Covid-19 exposure/threat to firefighting crews as the reason for restricting campfires. We still have the Covid threat today and it is getting hotter and drier, but campfires are allowed.
I'm scratching my head also WW, hope everyone who has a campfire is extremely careful, we are most likely in conditions as we were when the Ham Lake fire started.



Red Flag Warning. "



I have looked at data from 2007 (Ham Lake Fire) and much other data and scratching my head also why no fire ban. I would post the data here but its mainly meteorological data and overall weather patterns which is too deep for this thread but in a nut this current weather pattern (as I alluded to in a different thread) is not one conducive to copious rains in the Northland ( for some time) *- especially since the last one just missed to South- the pattern is not conducive to something happening similar like what just happened in S.MN. That was more an "outlier" than what is currently- has been- synoptically and forecasted to continue. A minimal saving grace (previously mentioned before) may be the added moisture via dewpoints and RH in the morning(s) that help through the weekend - but insolation and wind will quickly mix this little amount of added of moisture away.



* of course by early June (my entry) things will suddenly change to a monsoon with so much rainfall and moisture that a fire will be allowed only because it's not likely to happen even when one wants to have one. I will be one. All kidding aside- things are dry as pointed out by Bushpilot and will only get drier until a major pattern shift in the atmosphere. For those interested- this pattern currently is mainly controlled (the MAIN driving force- the QB of the football team- many players on the field have you) happens in the equatorial Pacific and an index (big tool- adjustable wrench have you) us long range forecasters use and has been rock solid this late winter early spring-- more so than I can ever remember is ---
MJO- Madden Julian Oscillation
I guess I did post one thing "technical" or "deep" -google "MJO weather" for a better understanding if you so like but the above link also shows forecasts and previous phases and what certain phases mean for Temp/Precip for different regions. One of the best out there. Again- Just one player on the field- but lately the MJO has been more than the QB- more like the entire 11 player offense in American Football. Something to check out if your bored and into long range weather patterns. (It's also showing us an active hurricane season in the ATL fwiw)- along with surface Temps in the E. Pacific behaving more LA NINA like ,


Sorry for the boredom,
"


Slow night in weather here 5/20- just thought I would show some why's before the what.
If my idea is somewhat right on a more detailed basis (much deeper HA!) - let's see if we get a tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico by June 6th-13th. (or so)


Cristobal anyone?> I called it nearly 3 weeks ago, people give long range forecasters heat- I get it, but give some synoptic forecasters kudos when we nail it, as my post is so old , many don't remember. Not tooting my own horn- but that people dont call me out one way or the other. You be the judge, Weather people can't nail it 48 hours out is different than pattern recognition, physics for the layman. It can be done, just saying to defend folks like myself agst most media you see..



Christobal_(2020) "

Man!! I remembered reading this and that you had called this but could never find the actual board this was on. NICE CALL!!

NOW, please give me the lottery numbers for next week and I will really know you are a genius!! Ha,,,(email them to me private so it does not get out of hand with people buying tickets and such,,,,,,,haha).

Mo63021: "WhiteWolf: "WhiteWolf: "LindenTree: "WhiteWolf: "Fire weather watch for Monday. I'd expect more to be issued or even a warning by mid-week. No clue why they are allowing fires now- but not 2 weeks ago.





Bumped up/increased to a "Red Flag Warning" today.
Previoulsy the SNF used the Covid-19 exposure/threat to firefighting crews as the reason for restricting campfires. We still have the Covid threat today and it is getting hotter and drier, but campfires are allowed.
I'm scratching my head also WW, hope everyone who has a campfire is extremely careful, we are most likely in conditions as we were when the Ham Lake fire started.




Red Flag Warning. "



I have looked at data from 2007 (Ham Lake Fire) and much other data and scratching my head also why no fire ban. I would post the data here but its mainly meteorological data and overall weather patterns which is too deep for this thread but in a nut this current weather pattern (as I alluded to in a different thread) is not one conducive to copious rains in the Northland ( for some time) *- especially since the last one just missed to South- the pattern is not conducive to something happening similar like what just happened in S.MN. That was more an "outlier" than what is currently- has been- synoptically and forecasted to continue. A minimal saving grace (previously mentioned before) may be the added moisture via dewpoints and RH in the morning(s) that help through the weekend - but insolation and wind will quickly mix this little amount of added of moisture away.



* of course by early June (my entry) things will suddenly change to a monsoon with so much rainfall and moisture that a fire will be allowed only because it's not likely to happen even when one wants to have one. I will be one. All kidding aside- things are dry as pointed out by Bushpilot and will only get drier until a major pattern shift in the atmosphere. For those interested- this pattern currently is mainly controlled (the MAIN driving force- the QB of the football team- many players on the field have you) happens in the equatorial Pacific and an index (big tool- adjustable wrench have you) us long range forecasters use and has been rock solid this late winter early spring-- more so than I can ever remember is ---
MJO- Madden Julian Oscillation
I guess I did post one thing "technical" or "deep" -google "MJO weather" for a better understanding if you so like but the above link also shows forecasts and previous phases and what certain phases mean for Temp/Precip for different regions. One of the best out there. Again- Just one player on the field- but lately the MJO has been more than the QB- more like the entire 11 player offense in American Football. Something to check out if your bored and into long range weather patterns. (It's also showing us an active hurricane season in the ATL fwiw)- along with surface Temps in the E. Pacific behaving more LA NINA like ,



Sorry for the boredom,
"



Slow night in weather here 5/20- just thought I would show some why's before the what.
If my idea is somewhat right on a more detailed basis (much deeper HA!) - let's see if we get a tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico by June 6th-13th. (or so)



Cristobal anyone?> I called it nearly 3 weeks ago, people give long range forecasters heat- I get it, but give some synoptic forecasters kudos when we nail it, as my post is so old , many don't remember. Not tooting my own horn- but that people dont call me out one way or the other. You be the judge, Weather people can't nail it 48 hours out is different than pattern recognition, physics for the layman. It can be done, just saying to defend folks like myself agst most media you see..



Christobal_(2020) "


Man!! I remembered reading this and that you had called this but could never find the actual board this was on. NICE CALL!!



NOW, please give me the lottery numbers for next week and I will really know you are a genius!! Ha,,,(email them to me private so it does not get out of hand with people buying tickets and such,,,,,,,haha). "

You take CALC and Physics to their max- you can figure even lottery #'s out - if you got the cash, and time. Cash and time being huge....

Much of north central and northern Minnesota is getting close to being in a drought condition. I see the next 10 days is suppose to be very hot at times and dry. We need rain bad.
I have not looked at the long term trend, but I see the west is awful dry also. I think we might be in for a fire ban by July 1.

Pinetree: "Much of north central and northern Minnesota is getting close to being in a drought condition. I see the next 10 days is suppose to be very hot at times and dry. We need rain bad.
I have not looked at the long term trend, but I see the west is awful dry also. I think we might be in for a fire ban by July 1."

A fire ban may be possible, the BW is really lucky they got the rain they did, Accu Weather is not predicting any precip the rest of the month.

Accu weather, Isabella/June

Go to the bottom pic, Thousand hour fuels are at 15% in north central Lake County that is exceptionally dry

US Drought Monitor/ Moderate Drought in most of St Lious cty MN on June 9th, it gets updated every Thursday

Thanks.

Had a campfire at home- Mille lacs area and the moisture content is like you said. Very low. A few sticks make a extremely hot fire. No moisture in the wood, thus it burns harder and easier.

I see also the Kawishiwi river flow is 55% of normal.

Pinetree: "Much of north central and northern Minnesota is getting close to being in a drought condition. I see the next 10 days is suppose to be very hot at times and dry. We need rain bad.
I have not looked at the long term trend, but I see the west is awful dry also. I think we might be in for a fire ban by July 1."

What a prediction Pinetree you pretty much hit it on the head.

Hey, what's the stock market going to do on August 1st :-)

LindenTree: "Pinetree: "Much of north central and northern Minnesota is getting close to being in a drought condition. I see the next 10 days is suppose to be very hot at times and dry. We need rain bad.
I have not looked at the long term trend, but I see the west is awful dry also. I think we might be in for a fire ban by July 1."


What a prediction Pinetree you pretty much hit it on the head.



Hey, what's the stock market going to do on August 1st :-)"
Thanks -No I tried the stock market-didn't work out. Satisfied with 1-2% return now.

Yes these rains been dumping here and there in Minnesota lately. I have noticed over the years also all that bedrock in the BWCA much of the water runs off and also the su reflecting off it dries stuff out super crisp.
Like you said the moisture content in dead wood is very low and the 90 degree weather this week is not going to help.

Closer to home today after the rain we got it is super humid. I don't see how people can live down south in the summer and the super humidity. Give me winter.

I see the water flow on the Kawishiwi river is over 60% below normal and like 20 cubic feet per second from its all time low reached in 2010 for this date. Must be all rocks below the dam on highway one.

I see the water flow on the Kawishiwi river is over 60% below normal and like 20 cubic feet per second from its all time low reached in 2010 for this date. Must be all rocks below the dam on highway one.

Pinetree: " I have noticed over the years also all that bedrock in the BWCA much of the water runs off and also the su reflecting off it dries stuff out super crisp.
"

Yes the BW is unique in that way over the rest of MN, its light thin soils and exposed bedrock near or at the surface helps it dry much faster than other parts of MN.