A lot of buzz this year about the increased number of overnight paddle permits reserved.

No time to make a big, detailed calendar right now, but this is something quick that -- in hindsight -- I wish I had thought to do once each month this season:

One week prior to the start of the month...
Number of permits that remain available for the month of August 2020: 2,187
Number of permits that remain available for the month of August 2019: 3,007
Difference: 820 more reserved this year (26-27 more groups entering each day)

I hope to remember to do it again for September, but would have been fun to have obtained hard data for May, June, and July.

That's a pretty big jump.

Good data wrangling idea. I have been watching Moose Lake entry point for the week of Labor Day. Most permits available. That is the week we are going in. It would be nice to compare YOY as you are doing.

Schweady, do you happen to have the total number of permits issuable per day handy? I could add it up but thought you might already have it. The numbers you show above look like a meaningful increase, but I’m wondering how the years compare on percentage of permits taken (or available)? Thanks for doing this.

Thanks, Schweady for the update! I always enjoy looking at your 2019 analysis.

Good info. It is good to know lots of options are available this year as much has been made of the lack of openings available. You may not get the first entry point you choose or the desired date, but you can still go.

I went ahead and did the math - looks to me like there are 266 Overnight Paddle permits available on any given day (I excluded From Canada). 266 x 31 days = 8246 OP permits issuable in August. Last year when Schweady pulled the numbers a week before August, 64% of all August permits were taken, and this year 73% are taken.

That’s certainly an increase, but hardly a deluge of people. Of course, these people may not be distributed across all entry points and may be concentrated on some of the more popular ones which may make it feel more crowded.

Jaywalker: " Of course, these people may not be distributed across all entry points and may be concentrated on some of the more popular ones which may make it feel more crowded. "

I did a quick look at Recreation.gov last week and the permits for late July to mid August for EP37 and EP38 were pretty scare. I think both fit the “more popular” criteria.

EP 37 has always been my go to when I needed a last minuet permit. There are always 2 or 3 of the 9 open. Not this year, just a bunch of zeros. Somebody did cancel a couple days ago and I got a 37 permit. It does worry me but hopefully when I get pass Malberg I will leave the crowds behind. We shall see.

This information is gold! Thanks for doing this. I've seen this increase in person, as have many on this site. It's crazy out there.

I'll be very interested in the numbers once the covid stuff is over.

Mike

Having all permits gone on EP37 does sound like a change. So maybe it is localized.

Another difference could be in who is going. There may be some usual BW types who are not going due to the need to travel long distances (myself included), work in essential fields such as medicine, or because of a lack of money due to the economic downturn. Those people might be replaced by newcomers who are not as familiar with LNT and BWCA practices. On EP lakes near Ely, there could also be an increase in day trips. Cabins are definitely booking more nights than usual but it may only be a small percentage of those visitors that enter the BW.

If you don't have much flexibility in the days you can enter, you can be screwed this summer. I have been watching this friday, and the following friday, for the past 3 weeks, and there are only 3 lakes I can enter on. Lac LaCroix, Trout Lake, and Little Vermillion. That's it.

Mudro and Lake 1 both came available at one point, but by time I asked my wife, they were gone.

If a person spends enough time on the reservation page, sometimes good ones do become available. But you have to check frequently, because they don't last long.


We've decided to paddle the Namekagon instead.

analyzer: "If you don't have much flexibility in the days you can enter, you can be screwed this summer. I have been watching this friday, and the following friday, for the past 3 weeks, and there are only 3 lakes I can enter on. Lac LaCroix, Trout Lake, and Little Vermillion. That's it.


Mudro and Lake 1 both came available at one point, but by time I asked my wife, they were gone.


If a person spends enough time on the reservation page, sometimes good ones do become available. But you have to check frequently, because they don't last long.



We've decided to paddle the Namekagon instead."

It's interesting watching the reservation options, on a daily, if not bi-daily basis. Options come and go. I made the above post earlier today. At that time, there were only 3 choices for entry permits this coming friday. That was 8 hours ago. now there are a dozen choices. As the date approaches, there have been several cancelations. I noticed a few hours ago, another Mudro came available. That's gone now.

It just tells me, that if a person watches closely, there are still additional options that come available. It's hard to plan on it, but if you're group is a little bit flexible, patience pays off.

Jaywalker: "I went ahead and did the math - looks to me like there are 266 Overnight Paddle permits available on any given day (I excluded From Canada). 266 x 31 days = 8246 OP permits issuable in August. Last year when Schweady pulled the numbers a week before August, 64% of all August permits were taken, and this year 73% are taken.


That’s certainly an increase, but hardly a deluge of people. Of course, these people may not be distributed across all entry points and may be concentrated on some of the more popular ones which may make it feel more crowded. "

There is also the possibility that more permits have larger groups. Hence, even more total people than the simple increase in permits used might suggest. There is a visual impact of seeing more canoes. Usually bigger groups make more sound. Also larger groups leave a larger combined impact on the physical condition of the campsites and portages. (More trash, more flora trod upon, more erosion, etc.)

analyzer: "

analyzer: "If you don't have much flexibility in the days you can enter, you can be screwed this summer. I have been watching this friday, and the following friday, for the past 3 weeks, and there are only 3 lakes I can enter on. Lac LaCroix, Trout Lake, and Little Vermillion. That's it.



Mudro and Lake 1 both came available at one point, but by time I asked my wife, they were gone.



If a person spends enough time on the reservation page, sometimes good ones do become available. But you have to check frequently, because they don't last long.



We've decided to paddle the Namekagon instead."

It's interesting watching the reservation options, on a daily, if not bi-daily basis. Options come and go. I made the above post earlier today. At that time, there were only 3 choices for entry permits this coming friday. That was 8 hours ago. now there are a dozen choices. As the date approaches, there have been several cancelations. I noticed a few hours ago, another Mudro came available. That's gone now.


It just tells me, that if a person watches closely, there are still additional options that come available. It's hard to plan on it, but if you're group is a little bit flexible, patience pays off."

It's really interesting. As of yesterday (tues) afternoon, there were 3 entry point options for this Friday (31st). As of this morning (wed) there are 25 entry point options. That's a staggering amount of cancellations. I count 29 total cancellations for Friday, in the last 16 hours.

analyzer: "

analyzer: "

analyzer: "If you don't have much flexibility in the days you can enter, you can be screwed this summer. I have been watching this friday, and the following friday, for the past 3 weeks, and there are only 3 lakes I can enter on. Lac LaCroix, Trout Lake, and Little Vermillion. That's it.



Mudro and Lake 1 both came available at one point, but by time I asked my wife, they were gone.



If a person spends enough time on the reservation page, sometimes good ones do become available. But you have to check frequently, because they don't last long.




We've decided to paddle the Namekagon instead."

It's interesting watching the reservation options, on a daily, if not bi-daily basis. Options come and go. I made the above post earlier today. At that time, there were only 3 choices for entry permits this coming friday. That was 8 hours ago. now there are a dozen choices. As the date approaches, there have been several cancelations. I noticed a few hours ago, another Mudro came available. That's gone now.



It just tells me, that if a person watches closely, there are still additional options that come available. It's hard to plan on it, but if you're group is a little bit flexible, patience pays off."

It's really interesting. As of yesterday (tues) afternoon, there were 3 entry point options for this Friday (31st). As of this morning (wed) there are 25 entry point options. That's a staggering amount of cancellations. I count 29 total cancellations for Friday, in the last 16 hours. "

What is going on? I look half an hour later, and all of those open entry permits are gone??? Was that just a glitch in the system, or is someone systematically buying all the potential permits?

I wrote to the folks at recreation.gov with a detailed request for data showing reservation numbers for recent years. So far: I got an automated reply with a case number...

I was told by someone who would know up here that the reservation system has had some glitches recently. That could explain this. Also, that one result is some entry points becoming overbooked on certain days.

Very interesting. I spoke to some rangers about numbers and they said it's about normal, though I did not get the sense that the answer was based on knowledge of the hard data. They did say it seems to be a higher percentage of newbies, and thus the campsites closer to EPs are more crowded.

schweady: "I wrote to the folks at recreation.gov with a detailed request for data showing reservation numbers for recent years. So far: I got an automated reply with a case number...
"

And, the predictable reply came today:
"I do apologize for any inconvenience. We do not have the ability to provide this information to public. I would suggest that you contact the facility for further insight on this information.
I hope this resolves your request. You can also find helpful resources in the Help Center.
Thank you.
Adena"