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Boundary Waters Quetico Forum
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      Canada Opening Border Poll     

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Savage Voyageur
distinguished member(13338)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished membermaster membermaster member
 
09/15/2020 10:51AM
I’m wondering when you people think the US/Canadian border will be opened for travel and tourism? Post your guesses in the form of Months and Year. Lots of smart people here, I’m just looking for some hope, but I’m not optimistic. If you have a reason for your guess post that too.

I see zero reason for Canada to open the border until the numbers go down. The numbers will only go down when a vaccine is developed and distributed to people. I don’t see that until May 2022.
 
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AmarilloJim
distinguished member(2226)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
09/15/2020 01:26PM
6 months
They need the tourism business and tax revenue
 
09/15/2020 02:56PM
sheesh, so it has come to this: a new twist on the ice-out contest :)
 
MichiganMan
senior member (80)senior membersenior member
 
09/15/2020 07:52PM
Not until after the new year at least. I'll say Jan 1.
 
nofish
distinguished member(2764)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
09/15/2020 11:28PM
Id guess April 2021 at the earliest but I wouldn't put any money on that guess. It could very well be April of 2022.

Even if a vaccine is ready this winter it won't be used widely enough to really make a dent in numbers for at least a year. Our best shot at the border opening is for the numbers to drop next spring after what we see the spike everyone is expecting this winter.
 
LarryS48
senior member (64)senior membersenior member
 
09/16/2020 01:55AM
If all goes well (a safe and effective vaccine is found, it is one of the ones that is being produced already, the system of distributing hundreds of millions of doses works smoothly, Americans accept the vaccine and get vaccinated quickly, and the vaccine is long lasting), I’d say August of 2021. If any of that doesn’t happen it could be much later.

This is based on the following.
1. The government of Canada will continue to prioritize protecting its people from the virus.
2. Most Canadian citizens will continue to support that policy.
3. The USA will continue to fail to control the virus via social means.
4. All goes well as stated above.

The status as of Sept. 15, 2020 is as follows.
Based on the rolling 7 day average of new cases Canada is reporting 722 new cases per day versus 38286 for the USA. If we correct for the population difference (USA is 8.781 times more populated), the ratio of new cases is 38286 : 6340. That is Population corrected new infections were 6.0 times worse in the USA than in Canada. That is actually an improvement from the point of view of the USA. Things have gotten slightly better in recent weeks in the USA but worse in Canada.

If one does a similar analysis of deaths one finds That corrected for population Americans were dying From COVID at 20 times that rate of Canadians in the last week.

I don’t think the border will open while things are so much worse in the USA than in Canada. I expect another month extension to the border closing to be announced soon.
 
plander
member (28)member
 
09/16/2020 11:52AM
March 2021.

That said, I'm guessing it will not be until the border is opened that they will start accepting and processing RABC applications. Therefore, it may be a challenge to get all the stuff in order for a PP or CB ranger station entry point even if the border opens by the Ontario fishing opener (May 15, 2021???). For the LLC ranger station I assume the Canadian Customs on Sand Point Lake is still in operation, and if that's indeed the case then no need to get the RABC for those entry points.
 
LarryS48
senior member (64)senior membersenior member
 
09/17/2020 11:29AM
Yesterday I posted my best case scenario of the US/Canada border opening in August of 2021. Shortly there after that, the director of the CDC said that he didn’t expect a vaccine to be widely available to the general public until the second or third quarter of 2021. President Trump immediately countered that it would be sooner than that. One of the key assumptions in my prediction was that a safe and effective vaccine would have been widely used by August 2021. If the CDC director is right, it looks like the US may have many people unvaccinated at that time. If that turns out to be the case, we might be looking at Americans losing the 2021 paddling season in Quetico. Although August of 2021 still seems possible, it seems less likely than it did the day before yesterday.

P.S. Widely used means 250 to 300 million Americans vaccinated with a vaccine that is 70% effective. As I think about this, it seems unlikely that enough Americans will be willing to do that. If that is the case, the hope would be that Canada will allow people who have been vaccinated to visit.
 
GraniteCliffs
distinguished member(1851)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
09/17/2020 07:55PM
Don't!! Stop!! I am depressed enough over missing out on the Q this year. Do not even think about a scenario where we would lose 2021 too!
It is pretty clear that none of us really has a good prediction. By January it could be the virus rate flips between the US and Canada. Certainly other countries in the world have seen this happen. Surely the financial pinch will be felt and will have some sway. And the vaccines under development--who knows the when, how many or how effective.
The only two things I know are how much I missed the Q this year and how depressed I would be to miss 2021.
Yep, Don't think it.
 
LarryS48
senior member (64)senior membersenior member
 
09/17/2020 11:24PM
GraniteCliffs: "Don't!! Stop!! I am depressed enough over missing out on the Q this year. Do not even think about a scenario where we would lose 2021 too!
It is pretty clear that none of us really has a good prediction. By January it could be the virus rate flips between the US and Canada. Certainly other countries in the world have seen this happen. Surely the financial pinch will be felt and will have some sway. And the vaccines under development--who knows the when, how many or how effective.
The only two things I know are how much I missed the Q this year and how depressed I would be to miss 2021.
Yep, Don't think it."


I know how much it hurts not to be able to go to Quetico. Believe me, I know. However, burying your head in the sand will not fix the problem. In fact, if so many Americans hadn’t buried there heads in the sand we might be able to go to Quetico now. The pandemic started from low levels in both the US and Canada, as spring came it increased rapidly in both countries. Then both countries started taking measures to reduce it. It started to work in both countries. But then our paths separated. Canada kept working at it. America decided to bury its head in the sand and do what made it feel good. That was opening the economy, going to bars and restaurants, partying etc. What I want took priority over doing what was necessary. The result was Canada’s cases continued down and America’s skyrocketed. Now is not the time to focus solely on what you want. It is time to take a critical look at the problem (high numbers of cases and deaths) and see what can be done. If we do that, you’ll get your chance to go to Quetico. If not, it will be a long time. So stop with the this is what I want and start seeing what you can do about it.
 
LarryS48
senior member (64)senior membersenior member
 
09/18/2020 08:31AM
In response to the fighting between Dr. Redfield and Pres. Trump, Dr. Fauci gave a slightly more optimistic outlook than Dr. Redfield. Basically he said that IF a safe and effective vaccine is found in the next few months and if it is one of the ones being pre-manufactured, that we could be able to get large numbers of people vaccinated by the second and third quarter of next year. Still lots of if’s, but it is in line with my original thinking. So, what is important here is not that I think that most likely things will be getting to something like normal by the late third quarter of 2021 but that Dr. Fauci thinks it is possible or maybe likely too. We can hope that things go even faster but what we have to do is do what it takes to make that a reality rather than just a dream. Those things are mask wearing, social distancing, avoiding crowds and getting vaccinated once there is evidence that comes from reliable sources that a vaccine or vaccines are safe and effective. Do it so we can get a chance of being able to get back to canoeing in Canada.

Keep my vote in the poll as August 2021. Lets do the things that could make it sooner and avoid doing the things that could make it later.
 
Pinetree
distinguished member(12725)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished membermaster membermaster member
 
09/18/2020 12:40PM
OTTAWA, Sept. 18 (Reuters) — The United States and Canada have extended existing border restrictions until Oct. 21 as authorities continue their efforts to fight the coronavirus pandemic, both nations said on Friday.
 
GraniteCliffs
distinguished member(1851)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
09/18/2020 08:20PM
LarryS48: "GraniteCliffs: "Don't!! Stop!! I am depressed enough over missing out on the Q this year. Do not even think about a scenario where we would lose 2021 too!
It is pretty clear that none of us really has a good prediction. By January it could be the virus rate flips between the US and Canada. Certainly other countries in the world have seen this happen. Surely the financial pinch will be felt and will have some sway. And the vaccines under development--who knows the when, how many or how effective.
The only two things I know are how much I missed the Q this year and how depressed I would be to miss 2021.
Yep, Don't think it."



I know how much it hurts not to be able to go to Quetico. Believe me, I know. However, burying your head in the sand will not fix the problem. In fact, if so many Americans hadn’t buried there heads in the sand we might be able to go to Quetico now. The pandemic started from low levels in both the US and Canada, as spring came it increased rapidly in both countries. Then both countries started taking measures to reduce it. It started to work in both countries. But then our paths separated. Canada kept working at it. America decided to bury its head in the sand and do what made it feel good. That was opening the economy, going to bars and restaurants, partying etc. What I want took priority over doing what was necessary. The result was Canada’s cases continued down and America’s skyrocketed. Now is not the time to focus solely on what you want. It is time to take a critical look at the problem (high numbers of cases and deaths) and see what can be done. If we do that, you’ll get your chance to go to Quetico. If not, it will be a long time. So stop with the this is what I want and start seeing what you can do about it. "

My head is buried in the sand? I want what I want??? I need to start seeing what I can do about it? I am confused by your comments in response to my post. Perhaps I missed something but I don’t need a lecture from someone that doesn’t know me.

 
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