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billconner
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02/08/2021 10:57AM  
I found this video, an academic presenting his predictions for the pandemic, interesting. I was especially intrigued by the prediction of a kind of jubilance at the end (around 2024 in his view) and the corollary to the roaring 20's following the Spanish flu pandemic (which maybe should have been called the Kansas Flu Pandemic, one of those things learned as a result of Covid.)

Amidst the tragedy and suffering, I do like his optimistic outlook and hope its just sooner.
 
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jhb8426
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02/08/2021 07:44PM  
Yeah, it was interesting but entirely misleading as the title is "Why the pandemic won't be over until 2024." He never addresses that, only stating what he thinks will happen post pandemic.
 
Minnesotian
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02/09/2021 08:39AM  

I found his video a very good "cliff notes" version of what he sees coming from this virus. And I agree with the three phases argument.

However, I think he left off, or it is in his book, a fourth phase. The long-term lingering phase. I do not believe Covid-19 or variation of it are going to be completely eradicated, not while 1/4 of just Americans (not taking into account the sentiments of people worldwide) are saying they will not get vaccinated. KFF Covid 19 Vaccine Survey

As long as a sizable portion of the world's population remains unvaccinated, that means Covid will continue to infect and (more alarmingly) mutate. Yes, herd immunity will be achieved slowly even if not everyone gets the vaccine, but that will cause extended suffering and death as we continue to see flare ups of infections strike unvaccinated populations. And as the virus mutates, the talk about vaccinations will start evolving into booster shots. Maybe the long term effect of Covid is that we will have to get our yearly Covid shot for the rest of our lives, much like the influenza shot or tetanus shot every 10 years.

And there will be people that never mentally recover from this Covid time. They are reshaped. I think back to my grandparents who survived the Depression in rural Minnesota and WWII. They saved everything. Reused everything. Stocked food. All the usual traits that people who lived through that time developed in response shaped the rest of their lives. There will be people from this pandemic who will always be hesitant to hug people, who will have panic attacks and heightened anxiety from large crowds. Masks will never go away, because there will be people who will continue to wear them in public because they feel safer with them. Reminders of the pandemic will stay with us for a long time.

 
andym
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02/09/2021 12:32PM  
Masks were already a common sight in Japan and were worn to protect both the wearer and others. It could just be a good idea for sickness in general and doesn’t need to signal anxiety.

I’ve spent years avoiding hugs and handshaking due to a reduced immune system. I’m happy to reserve those for people that I am close to and skip touching everyone I meet at large conferences. So I would be good with that change too.
 
jhb8426
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02/10/2021 12:30AM  
It seems Asians, mostly Chinese and Japanese, have been wearing masks for one reason or another for quite some time. I recall seeing pictures a few years back with everyone in those places wearing a mask.
 
KarlBAndersen1
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02/13/2021 09:22AM  
Minnesotian: "And there will be people that never mentally recover from this Covid time. They are reshaped. I think back to my grandparents who survived the Depression in rural Minnesota and WWII. They saved everything. Reused everything. Stocked food. All the usual traits that people who lived through that time developed in response shaped the rest of their lives. There will be people from this pandemic who will always be hesitant to hug people, who will have panic attacks and heightened anxiety from large crowds. Masks will never go away, because there will be people who will continue to wear them in public because they feel safer with them. Reminders of the pandemic will stay with us for a long time. "

I've already fallen into that category of saving and creating an inventory of needed items.
But I won't stop hugging my friends. Nor will I fear crowds.
We still have to live.
 
mutz
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02/13/2021 05:25PM  
jhb8426: "It seems Asians, mostly Chinese and Japanese, have been wearing masks for one reason or another for quite some time. I recall seeing pictures a few years back with everyone in those places wearing a mask."


We have been to China a couple of times in the past five years. People did wear masks, but by no means everybody. We even wore masks a couple of times in different cities not because of any virus but because the smog is so bad in a lot of areas we had a hard time breathing. I think Shanghai and Beijing were the worst with the most people wearing masks but mainly because of the poor air quality.
 
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