Well I feel like we can all agree it's going to be an early ice out. It looks like its shapiong up to be similar to 2016 and '17 which was the last week of April. I am scheduled to go in on May 15th and this will be my first stab at an "ice out" trip for the BWCA although I think the ice will already have been out for two weeks. My question is for the trippers that routinely do spring trips, what can I expect for bugs two weeks after ice out?

Last year - correct me if I am wrong - I think most of the BWCA ice went out right around the first week or so of May.
So if you are right, it could be a full week (or more) sooner this year.

Last year I was in for a week starting May 19, and recall very few bugs, though some spots were starting to see some black flies. I think we saw one mosquito.

Hope those reference points help, but as always, the weather & temps right after ice out will have a big impact.

A couple years ago I paddled into Knife about a week after ice out. It was Tshirt or wool shirt weather most days. There were very few mosquitos, but at the end of the week the black flies started to pop. I think it’s not just a matter of how long after ice out, but how fast the lakes you are on warm up.

I did a couple days around May 19th back in 2019 when it was cold and windy. Water temps were still pretty low, probably in the upper 40s and low 50s. Fish were not biting. But the blackflies were! We had them mixed throughout the day, although only during the day when it was warmer. Mosquitoes hung around when it was cooler and there were no active dragonflies to take them out. It was probably a 5/10 situation, where I typically rate early June about a 7/10 (worst in the morning and evening but usually not bad midday).

With this warm weather, I think you will have moderate amounts of blackflies and a healthy amount of mosquitoes in the morning and evening. That is of course precluding the possibility of polar vortex hitting us at the end of April, but I doubt it.

Been going fishing opener or week after that for 20+ years. Ticks are usually the biggest concern.

May 23rd entry date.

I believe the black flies will be quite hospitable, and welcome me with open mouths.

May the mosquitoes NOT follow suit...

JW