BWCA latest 45 day trends Boundary Waters Group Forum: WEATHER STUFF
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04/17/2021 04:09AM  
Lots of times in long range forecasting we look at trends. The following graphic shows 45 day trends from basically early last winter. (red is warm, blue is cold relative to avg temps) This really means nothing for the future- unless a forecaster has put the time in and see's a correlation (many) - which needs to be strong to make a forecast. In this case- with a change of seasons and of overall wavelengths ( think timing between storms/temp changes) in the atmosphere (which change from Winter to Spring/early Summer) -- this likely will not be the case through the end of MAY as I expect things to change in about 2 weeks to above normal temps ( Upper Midwest) and increased storms/rainfall to the S of the Upper Midwest generally speaking as a battleground sets up. I took some heat from a post on "70% chance of early ice out" in which I busted on-- but this "trend" was one of the many "tools" I used-- I just thought the current below normal spell would have occurred earlier and the warm spell ending 4/14 wasn't going to be as strong or as long. A bust is a bust. But thought this would be cool to share. Btw- from my experience , without a major influence of a something in the atmosphere really driving things (we can get into this in the future-- and these things are usually around) temps and precip usually rotate and even themselves out over a 20-25 day cycle in this part of the Lower 48.
 
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04/19/2021 10:40AM  
Does this spring/summer look to be as dry as the last?
 
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