Looking at the forecast models you have access too what do you think are the chances that this weeks modeled storm verifies for the lower GL/Chicago/NW Indiana area.

It would be nice to be in the Jack Zone for once. It has been a few years.

airmorse: "Looking at the forecast models you have access too what do you think are the chances that this weeks modeled storm verifies for the lower GL/Chicago/NW Indiana area.

It would be nice to be in the Jack Zone for once. It has been a few years."

It's somewhat an odd situation, but not totally uncommon for this time of year. If heavy snow is going to fall this far S - this is the time of the year it's most likely to happen. One thing going in your direction is obvious model support and rather widespread / deep snow cover to the NW which will help the Arctic high pressure NOT lose much intensity and stop the warm air advection from bringing too much warm air and moisture much further N that what is currently modeld.

Negatives are that this storm is not even close to being ashore yet - thus not even close to being fully sampled. This normally produces some last minute shifts say 25-50 miles in the snow /rain line etc, but in this case , it could be more like 50-100 miles. IF the storm really generates as much precip /snow as models say- expect more warm/juicy air (needed for the high totals being modeled ) being shifted further to the N and even NW as to produce that amout of precip is going take some serious Gulf Moisture and S winds that would likely override the cold/dry air advecting in from the NW-- for a time--- The Cold air always wins- it's just a matter of when.
The totals being forecasted are surreal and very likely much over done. Don't know your exact location - but right now the locations you mentioned look golden for at least 8-12" and that is being very conservative compared to model guidance. But do expect a slight N shift -- and that is the latest trend also as I write. If that trend continues- CHI-TOWN may be the jack zone more so than INDY. Thanks for asking . Still a long ways to go and expect changes.

WSW issued for my area.

I live in Lake County Indiana where we have about 4" of snow OTG with not much to the south so the warm air could advect fairly easily northward.

I agree it's all about timing and how fast the cold air moves south and if the Gulf moisture will be present.

It is hard to believe 20 to 30 inches of snow are being forecasted. That would be historic.

Have not read KLOT discussion yet. They have been burned many times by jumping the gun to early.

Models now going way south. Cut my snowfall by more than half.

Definite N trend today and Hi-rez models show Lake County in the running for the Golden Shovel.... Enjoy!!