Now that March is here I am starting to think about likely ice out date and my May 12 entry date. How is the ice thickness this year compared to average? A lot can happen in the next six weeks but I have to start somewhere gauging ice out

This is what most look to each year. Watch for the first lakes in the south and compare to earliest, median, and latest ice out.

Ice out map

I was on Lake of the Woods a week ago, and it was over 3' thick.

Can't comment on exact ice thickness but, there's been below zero overnight temps in/near Ely the past few mornings. (Not including today)

SinglePortage: "Now that March is here I am starting to think about likely ice out date and my May 12 entry date. How is the ice thickness this year compared to average? A lot can happen in the next six weeks but I have to start somewhere gauging ice out "

I assume you are also thinking of a backup plan?? Or is it go/no go?

bobbernumber3: "

SinglePortage: "Now that March is here I am starting to think about likely ice out date and my May 12 entry date. How is the ice thickness this year compared to average? A lot can happen in the next six weeks but I have to start somewhere gauging ice out "

I assume you are also thinking of a backup plan?? Or is it go/no go?"

I have another permit for late May just in case.

I used to track the ice out date each year on Saganaga and compare this to our fishing success. I'm not sure what lake you are targeting, but this might be of interest. May 2 was the 22-year average ice out date. By May 12 about 80% of the time, so you'll probably be fine.

bobbernumber3: "I used to track the ice out date each year on Saganaga and compare this to our fishing success. I'm not sure what lake you are targeting, but this might be of interest. May 2 was the 22-year average ice out date. By May 12 about 80% of the time, so you'll probably be fine.


"

I am going to Knife, and your right in saying that I'm PROBABLY ok. I'll just keep an eye on the weather in April, just like a lot of people.

I'm sure you'll be fine.

Hoping not to step on White Wolfs toes.. I think the best indicator of ice out is forecast temps.



Northern MN is on track for the coldest winter in a decade. And we are still in full winter. But the sun is higher now and snow is melting on sunny days even with below freezing temps. I too am thinking open water and spend a lot of time imagining myself in camp or on the water.

And I don’t get this but I saw a robin two weeks ago hanging out on some thawed ground near a steam pipe in town. So who knows.

Tom

And so it begins...

Median Ice Out Dates in MN

The current 8 to 14 day outlook is very cold for the northwoods. I don't think it'll be an early ice out...guessing normal to later

Just out from a winter trip. Not just the couple feet of ice, but the 2 to 3 feet of snow on the lake...just seems like a lot of melting needs to happen before open water. Same lake last year had the same ice but 1 foot of the snow. Im well aware of the average ice out, but seems like a later year than last year. Small sample size here, though.

Daily temperatures, sunlight and snow cover are the significant factors for determining ice-out; ice thickness not so much.

I've always said March is the biggest deal as far as ice out in the Northland. But here is the past two months in I-Falls and Hibbing (long climate records) for those interested. Top 10 coldest on record and in Hibbing's case- coldest on record. A lot can change real quick, but the base is there for a late ice out--- Let the fun times begin with long range progs!!! I'd say avg ice out compared to normal as of this writing. so many variables .....

I know that it has been a cold winter so I expected pretty thick ice and good snow depth. I also noticed that the long range forecast calls for below average temperatures, so at the point a later than average ice out is likely. Of course things can change quickly, but I would guess that we are going to need a warmer than usual spring to get to even an average ice out from what the near future weather pattern looks like.

There was a site previously shared that had like daily or hourly satalite imagery. And in looking at them you could tell if a lake's ice had gone out, provided there wasn't clouds.

I can't find it? Does anyone have or remember that site?

Something that goes right along with the spirit of this post...do any of the area lakes have water temps posted online?

Speckled: "There was a site previously shared that had like daily or hourly satalite imagery. And in looking at them you could tell if a lake's ice had gone out, provided there wasn't clouds.


I can't find it? Does anyone have or remember that site?"

I found this site:

Soar

Via a link from this article:

GIS User article

MODIS is once daily but helpful

MODIS

tumblehome: "MODIS is once daily but helpful


MODIS "

Is there any way to zoom in? The image shows the entire upper Midwest.