For the end of the Gunflint Trail, which forecast do folks typically find more accurate? As the crow flies, it's about 50 miles from Chik Wauk to Ely, compared to 40 miles from Chik Wauk to Grand Marais. Since Lake Superior has such a heavy influence, I'm thinking the Ely forecast would be much more accurate?

Forecast for our trip this week seems pretty good either way, but it's about a 20 degree difference in the daily high between the two locations, so we're trying to make an educated guess with our clothing choices.

Definitely ely forecast for that far from the lake.

Use Weather Underground and Hungry Jack Lake as the location for mid GFT. It gets you away from the lake effect conditions in Grand Marais.

I use the Gunflint Lake forecast with good results.

On weather underground, the 10-day forecast for gunflint lake weather station matches grand marais exactly. If you look at the current day you can see there is a temp difference between the two locations, but the forecast is identical.

On willyweather the temps are different:





The Grand Marais weather forecasts are typically from the airport that is up on the top of the hill but not super inland.

Personally- I'd use NWS point and click. It's what all the others are based on in one form or the other. With a internet based NWS point and click- you can click anywhere within a 5 square mile radius ( maybe slightly higher in the BW) and likely get better results than any Weather Underground or other app--- especially when things are updated. (usually early AM and late afternoon). Those weather apps get info from NWS- or at least the GFS/NAM models (USA models) and are usually delayed if the local forecast office ( Duluth in this case) is having issues. ( happens more than you know ) But by law - the NWS has to issue a "new" forecast at least twice a day, so no matter the data shortage due to a weather model loss , etc- NWS is your best bet. It's why by law there is at least 2 humans at a forecast office - no matter what time or weather. Weather apps are great and have their place for many, but they all get their info/gridded data from the same plac= NWS forecasters and NWS/FAA observational surface / upper air data. Weather Apps may just tweak some of the info differently. Sorry for the ramble.

Remember this if your off the grid and just based on a weather radio--- you've gone from a point and click (internet based 5 sq mile radius) to a weather radio which is much larger in sq mile coverage and loses accuracy big time past even 6 hours for a certain location compared to what a common user is used to. For severe weather big scale - the weather radio will let you know ( its main function) --- but even the detailed hourly surface reports which get in the hourly recording -- are usually well behind and sometimes missing in action. But any data points are better than nothing but just remember weather radio is usually behind what your used to with internet coverage. Much behind. I don't depend on it until it's refreshed late PM and early AM>

Don't mean to hijack the thread. Just throwing out observations from 25 years in the weather field and 60+ trips in the BWCA/Q comparing data vice versa. NWS wins hands down. Remember- NOAA issues warnings/watches, not some weather APP and for very good reason. But APPs do have their place.

Enjoy the weather- it's the only weather you got.

WhiteWolf: "Personally- I'd use NWS point and click. It's what all the others are based on in one form or the other. With a internet based NWS point and click- you can click anywhere within a 5 square mile radius ( maybe slightly higher in the BW) and likely get better results than any Weather Underground or other app--- especially when things are updated. (usually early AM and late afternoon). Those weather apps get info from NWS- or at least the GFS/NAM models (USA models) and are usually delayed if the local forecast office ( Duluth in this case) is having issues. ( happens more than you know ) But by law - the NWS has to issue a "new" forecast at least twice a day, so no matter the data shortage due to a weather model loss , etc- NWS is your best bet. It's why by law there is at least 2 humans at a forecast office - no matter what time or weather. Weather apps are great and have their place for many, but they all get their info/gridded data from the same plac= NWS forecasters and NWS/FAA observational surface / upper air data. Weather Apps may just tweak some of the info differently. Sorry for the ramble.


Remember this if your off the grid and just based on a weather radio--- you've gone from a point and click (internet based 5 sq mile radius) to a weather radio which is much larger in sq mile coverage and loses accuracy big time past even 6 hours for a certain location compared to what a common user is used to. For severe weather big scale - the weather radio will let you know ( its main function) --- but even the detailed hourly surface reports which get in the hourly recording -- are usually well behind and sometimes missing in action. But any data points are better than nothing but just remember weather radio is usually behind what your used to with internet coverage. Much behind. I don't depend on it until it's refreshed late PM and early AM>


Don't mean to hijack the thread. Just throwing out observations from 25 years in the weather field and 60+ trips in the BWCA/Q comparing data vice versa. NWS wins hands down. Remember- NOAA issues warnings/watches, not some weather APP and for very good reason. But APPs do have their place.

Enjoy the weather- it's the only weather you got.
"

Perhaps you'd drop by and reiterate the point I've made multiple times to my spouse ...

:-)

The main thing I am getting from this is how nice the weather is about to be when I am up there starting on Thursday.