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Boundary Waters Quetico ForumListening Point - General Discussion 2023 Ice Out Predictions
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03/01/2023 01:54PM
Will not have a prog in this call as maybe I'am bit biased--
but Duluth is challenging all time snow depths for early March.
Most on the ground for the 2nd of March (official snow depth is taken at 6am CST) is 36".
29" as of noon today. The SNINCR 1/29 at the 1755Z ob is 29" on the ground. Still snowing hard as of last ob at 2pm (1955Z)
KDLH 011955Z 07015G28KT 1/4SM R09/4000V6000FT -SN BLSN VV015 M07/M09 A2980 RMK AO2 PK WND 07028/1950 SFC VIS 1/2 SLP115 P0002 T10671094
KDLH 011855Z 07016G25KT 1/4SM R09/2800V3500FT -SN BLSN VV010 M06/M08 A2979 RMK AO2 PK WND 07029/1807 SLP111 P0002 T10611083
KDLH 011844Z 07018G23KT 1/4SM R09/3000V3500FT -SN BLSN VV010 M06/M08 A2979 RMK AO2 PK WND 07029/1807 P0002 T10561083
KDLH 011755Z 06016G23KT 1/4SM R09/3000FT SN BLSN VV008 M06/M08 A2980 RMK AO2 PK WND 07028/1737 SLP114 SNINCR 1/29 P0005 60025 T10561078 11044 21061 53002
alot can change in 6 weeks - but the Arrowhead is dealing with a top 90% of all time snow depth ( some areas running 4' above " normal" since 2008) as of this writing and the snow machine is far from done and a below avg to much below March forecasted for temps. Ouch. Another back loaded winter.
Even with this - I don't see ice out later than maybe a week past avg's? It will come down to April as March is about written in the book
but Duluth is challenging all time snow depths for early March.
Most on the ground for the 2nd of March (official snow depth is taken at 6am CST) is 36".
29" as of noon today. The SNINCR 1/29 at the 1755Z ob is 29" on the ground. Still snowing hard as of last ob at 2pm (1955Z)
KDLH 011955Z 07015G28KT 1/4SM R09/4000V6000FT -SN BLSN VV015 M07/M09 A2980 RMK AO2 PK WND 07028/1950 SFC VIS 1/2 SLP115 P0002 T10671094
KDLH 011855Z 07016G25KT 1/4SM R09/2800V3500FT -SN BLSN VV010 M06/M08 A2979 RMK AO2 PK WND 07029/1807 SLP111 P0002 T10611083
KDLH 011844Z 07018G23KT 1/4SM R09/3000V3500FT -SN BLSN VV010 M06/M08 A2979 RMK AO2 PK WND 07029/1807 P0002 T10561083
KDLH 011755Z 06016G23KT 1/4SM R09/3000FT SN BLSN VV008 M06/M08 A2980 RMK AO2 PK WND 07028/1737 SLP114 SNINCR 1/29 P0005 60025 T10561078 11044 21061 53002
alot can change in 6 weeks - but the Arrowhead is dealing with a top 90% of all time snow depth ( some areas running 4' above " normal" since 2008) as of this writing and the snow machine is far from done and a below avg to much below March forecasted for temps. Ouch. Another back loaded winter.
Even with this - I don't see ice out later than maybe a week past avg's? It will come down to April as March is about written in the book
03/12/2023 04:13AM
Gotta melt the snow before you melt the lake ice. That's not happening for at least 2-3 weeks.
And likely to challenge all time records ( snow depth for Duluth)
with more snow almost certain over next day or so.
KDLH 120855Z 09015KT 1/2SM R09/P6000FT -SN BLSN OVC010 M03/M05 A2982 RMK AO2 SLP122 SNINCR 1/45 P0003 60010 T10331050 58015
SNINCR 1/45 means one inch of new snow fell in the last hour with 45" on the ground.
Simply amazing. I have been in the field for nearly 25 years and have never seen an airport measure nearly 4' of snow on the ground. Sure it happens out west at elevation and all- but different deal here in the Upper Midwest.
Here are the Top 10 high extreme snow depths for Duluth -- have a feeling 1965 ( mid March) has met it's maker. (3/11 and 3/12/2023 are not yet in the CLIMO) -- also go back to my previous post on daily records for snow depth for March for Duluth. They are beating those like a rented mule.
And likely to challenge all time records ( snow depth for Duluth)
with more snow almost certain over next day or so.
KDLH 120855Z 09015KT 1/2SM R09/P6000FT -SN BLSN OVC010 M03/M05 A2982 RMK AO2 SLP122 SNINCR 1/45 P0003 60010 T10331050 58015
SNINCR 1/45 means one inch of new snow fell in the last hour with 45" on the ground.
Simply amazing. I have been in the field for nearly 25 years and have never seen an airport measure nearly 4' of snow on the ground. Sure it happens out west at elevation and all- but different deal here in the Upper Midwest.
Here are the Top 10 high extreme snow depths for Duluth -- have a feeling 1965 ( mid March) has met it's maker. (3/11 and 3/12/2023 are not yet in the CLIMO) -- also go back to my previous post on daily records for snow depth for March for Duluth. They are beating those like a rented mule.
04/06/2023 09:53AM
I decided against giving a late winter trip a go this year.
Weather conditions and snow depth played a key role, as well as aging participants.(Man and Dog)
One thing I've always thought about during late March trips is do I need to worry about bears yet.
I guess so, pic is from the Ely area early this week. Even Yogi is ready for ice out.
Weather conditions and snow depth played a key role, as well as aging participants.(Man and Dog)
One thing I've always thought about during late March trips is do I need to worry about bears yet.
I guess so, pic is from the Ely area early this week. Even Yogi is ready for ice out.
04/09/2023 12:18PM
Before anyone gets too worried about whether or not the ice will be out by their entry date, I thought I would post this little reminder from last year. Note seven days before the first photo was taken, there was a post that ice on Moose, Snowbank, and Lake One was averaging 22-24 inches. 14 days after that post, Moose was ice free at least on the south end. 
04/09/2023 02:58PM
Jaywalker: "Before anyone gets too worried about whether or not the ice will be out by their entry date, I thought I would post this little reminder from last year. Note seven days before the first photo was taken, there was a post that ice on Moose, Snowbank, and Lake One was averaging 22-24 inches. 14 days after that post, Moose was ice free at least on the south end.
Yes, even on delayed warm-up, once it warms into the 50's and 60's and a wind ice-out time catches up or speeds up.
05/05/2023 10:45AM
If anyone is interested, you can use the Sentinel-2 Playground (https://www.sentinel-hub.com/explore/sentinelplayground/) to monitor ice out by viewing the latest satellite imagery. This data is updated every few days for just about any location on earth, and you can toggle to previous dates, as well as view different color band combinations. Cloud cover presents a problem... the last non-cloudy day around Sawbill was 4/29 but the Ely side has been clearer lately.
The screenshot is showing the Fall Lake area from yesterday as an example.
The screenshot is showing the Fall Lake area from yesterday as an example.
05/05/2023 02:35PM
As of this afternoon (Friday) the ice on Moose has pulled away from the islands, may be starting to form cracks, and looks like it’s turning black in several spots. Last year it looked like (see above) this on Saturday afternoon, and all ice in the camera shot was gone 3 days later. I’ll bet it will be close to the same this year, but with cloudy days coming may take 1-2 more days.
05/15/2023 12:54PM
sns: "Per outfitter, the main part of Sag had some ice two days ago but was expected to go off yesterday or today.
Yesterday's Sentinelhub Sat image was particularly poor, and there's no time stamp to show when it was taken, but it looks like there was still a raft of ice in the largest open area north of Baird Island.
It looked like you could probably paddle to American Point or Hook Island.
Basically, it's go time."
I was just looking at this too. This is from yesterday (May 14) at 12:30 PM CST. There are still some large chunks in the deeper lakes, but lots of lakes look clear.
05/15/2023 02:56PM
sns: "jacobf: "
I was just looking at this too. This is from yesterday (May 14) at 12:30 PM CST. There are still some large chunks in the deeper lakes, but lots of lakes look clear."
That's a great image - what are you using / where are you finding that?"
This particular one is from Google Earth Engine, but you can get similar results in the Sentinel Hub EO browser.
05/15/2023 05:54PM
jacobf: "sns: "jacobf: "
I was just looking at this too. This is from yesterday (May 14) at 12:30 PM CST. There are still some large chunks in the deeper lakes, but lots of lakes look clear."
That's a great image - what are you using / where are you finding that?"
This particular one is from Google Earth Engine, but you can get similar results in the Sentinel Hub EO browser. "
Interesting...my expereince with sentinelhub is that it is considerably lower resolution than what you've grabbed from GEE. You use it professionally?
05/15/2023 09:20PM
sns: "jacobf: "sns: "jacobf: "
I was just looking at this too. This is from yesterday (May 14) at 12:30 PM CST. There are still some large chunks in the deeper lakes, but lots of lakes look clear."
That's a great image - what are you using / where are you finding that?"
This particular one is from Google Earth Engine, but you can get similar results in the Sentinel Hub EO browser. "
Interesting...my expereince with sentinelhub is that it is considerably lower resolution than what you've grabbed from GEE. You use it professionally?
"
I do use it professionally, but it’s the same data and tools that anyone can access. Send me an email through my profile and I can share the workflow in either platform to get that kind of output.
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