Things change over night, but if the trend continues past the next two weeks,I see some sort of fire restrictions early-of coarse i am probably wrong.
Any predictions? Whitewolf? Hot and dry summer-maybe, maybe not

Ely climate

definitely above avg next 2 weeks with little of any precip.
Fire bans? I think that is at least 2-3 weeks out without any precip

I do see a drier than normal summer - esp in North Dakota and NW MN and would not be shocked by mid June that much of the North (esp ND and NW MN) are put into a higher (drier) drought category.

Hope we get some rain and there's no ban. Heading up the week of Memorial Day

WhiteWolf: "definitely above avg next 2 weeks with little of any precip.
Fire bans? I think that is at least 2-3 weeks out without any precip


I do see a drier than normal summer - esp in North Dakota and NW MN and would not be shocked by mid June that much of the North (esp ND and NW MN) are put into a higher (drier) drought category.


"

Thanks,agree were set to go for no ban for at least a couple of weeks,than?

Ely has had like 5" of rain in the last two weeks. Things will green up quickly.
Of course if the faucets shuts off completely, things will change, but as of now- things look good up there. Those 84 degree days next week are not good however.

Soledad: "Ely has had like 5" of rain in the last two weeks. Things will green up quickly.
Of course if the faucets shuts off completely, things will change, but as of now- things look good up there. Those 84 degree days next week are not good however."

wow, that is great, I wonder how much the east side got?

I see even Ely suppose to be 86 degrees F. Sunday. 22 degrees above normal. Those rocky areas dry out fast.

There are multiple posts of fire bans...this is confusing to me. The woods up here in the arrowhead are really wet right now. There's still snow on the ground in a number of places. We had like a week of rain and then a larger rain. Everything is wet.

I was out south of Ely on the 26th and 27th and then on the Superior Hiking Trail this last weekend. Trails are wet, trails are muddy, snow still exists in the shade, seasonal waterflows - just in general - it's wet out there.

As I previously mentioned in an above comment I mentioned "at least 2 to 3 weeks out" .

Don't get all excited for a fire ban - woods are wet- and a chance of a cut off low late next week are on the rise somewhere in the Upper Midwest. This would likely favor areas W of the BWCA/Q for widespread precip- and not so much ares E-- but at this range a cut off low is likely but placement is far from certain. ( notoriously hard to predict ) NWS forecast discussions are barely hinting at it (for good reason) - but trust me - I'am watching it like a hawk as it's not only my job, but I have a trip then. So I have a vested interest.
If the system late next week leaves the BWCA/Q with no rain- the pattern after does not bode much better for widespread precip. As I said- by June- things could see a drought status. I personally don't know enough about the fire ban/ burning restrictions to force a "ban". Linden can add on that.
Trends in forecasting are your friend. System for late next week does look (trending) wet (NOW) for the BWCA/Q-- but crazier things have happened and we are talking 192 hours out.
The freeze/frost this AM helps a little with RH near 100%.

Overall my .02-- though the woods are wet now with recent rains/snow melt (a week or so ago) -- things can dry out in a hurry in the boreal forest with a stiff wind for days--- especially a South wind. That's what is forecast through much of next week, But I do NOT see a fire ban or ANY fire restrictions for at least 2 weeks for the BWCA/Q- and likely longer. After that - if no rain and low RH's and high temps = all bets are off.
Hope this helps.

Copied from a thread in trip planning.

I'm up here now camped on the South Kawashiwi River.
I did 30 years in wildland firefighting, we will not have any fire restrictions for at least two weeks or more.
Remember how dry it was in the spring of 23?
Fire bans were not implemented until the end of June that year.
Granted too late IMHO.

LindenTree: "Copied from a thread in trip planning.


I'm up here now camped on the South Kawashiwi River.
I did 30 years in wildland firefighting, we will not have any fire restrictions for at least two weeks or more.
Remember how dry it was in the spring of 23?
Fire bans were not implemented until the end of June that year.
Granted too late IMHO."

That is what I would think, and also things turn on a dime. Just something to talk about.
Love the Kawishiwi river area. My first trip to the BWCA was there and there were quite a few moose there than. Way back around 1969.

Pinetree:
That is what I would think, and also things turn on a dime. Just something to talk about.
Love the Kawishiwi river area. My first trip to the BWCA was there and there were quite a few moose there than. Way back around 1969.
"

Yep, nice area. I'm the only one here from the portage to the first rapids to the north.

LindenTree: "

Pinetree:
That is what I would think, and also things turn on a dime. Just something to talk about.
Love the Kawishiwi river area. My first trip to the BWCA was there and there were quite a few moose there than. Way back around 1969.
"

Yep, nice area. I'm the only one here from the portage to the first rapids to the north."

Love it, first one in a area for the year is so cool.

Reposted from the other sub

Not sure about being on the brink, but the Fire Danger Level is rated high.
The drought monitoring says its wet.

MN DNR Fire Ratings & Restrictions

MN Drought Conditions

Ryeman: "Reposted from the other sub


Not sure about being on the brink, but the Fire Danger Level is rated high.
The drought monitoring says its wet.


MN DNR Fire Ratings & Restrictions


MN Drought Conditions "

Fire danger rating has much to do this time of year with green up which has not started hardly by the BWCA.
Drought condition is more of moisture content and precip. totals over a long period of time. much of Minnesota is still recovering from last summer and low snowfall this winter.
One thing get a early spring warmup it uses up surplus moisture you may have accumulated.
Right now everything is fine.

Clearly see a fire burning on the N end of Winnie -- this is within the last 90 minutes. No clue how big, but when a satellite sees it , its clearly large. Does look like it maxed out and is letting off less smoke.

WhiteWolf: " Clearly see a fire burning on the N end of Winnie -- this is within the last 90 minutes. No clue how big, but when a satellite sees it , its clearly large. Does look like it maxed out and is letting off less smoke.









"

I think Chippawa National Forest was going to have a prescribed burn tonight.

That makes sense.

Prescribed may 8th

5 miles W of Inger is clearly it.

Pinetree: "
Right now everything is fine."

That was then. This is now:

“ MNZ010>012-018-019-025-026-033>037-111000-
/O.UPG.KDLH.FW.A.0001.250511T1600Z-250512T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KDLH.FW.W.0001.250511T1600Z-250512T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KDLH.FW.A.0003.250512T1700Z-250513T0200Z/
Koochiching-North St. Louis-Northern Cook and Lake-North Itasca-
Central St. Louis-North Cass-South Itasca-South Cass-Crow Wing-
Northern Aitkin-South Aitkin-Carlton and South St. Louis-
224 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR
WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR NORTHEASTERN
MINNESOTA...

The National Weather Service in Duluth has upgraded the Fire
Weather Watch on Sunday to a Red Flag Warning for wind and low
relative humidity, which is in effect from 11 AM to 10 PM CDT
Sunday. A Fire Weather Watch has also been issued for wind and low
relative humidity on Monday. This Fire Weather Watch is in effect
from Monday afternoon through Monday evening.

* AFFECTED AREA...In Minnesota, Koochiching, North St. Louis,
Northern Cook and Lake, North Itasca, Central St. Louis, North
Cass, South Itasca, South Cass, Crow Wing, Northern Aitkin,
South Aitkin and Carlton and South St. Louis.

* WINDS...South 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 15 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that ignite will spread rapidly and become
difficult to control. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

Weather may be changing next week for some nice rains-hope so rainy weather ahead-maybe

We're not even in drought conditions. They aren't going to do fire restrictions for typical spring fire season pre greenup just because it's dry and windy for 3 days.

A red flag warning pre green up does not equate to fire bans. Spring is a typical fire season for this part of Minnesota.

toastedmarshmallow12: "A red flag warning pre green up does not equate to fire bans. Spring is a typical fire season for this part of Minnesota. "

Is there anywhere in this thread where someone equates a red flag warning with a fire ban?

Maybe people could use some common sense and temper their enthusiasm for watching flames for entertainment over the next few days.

Minnesota Incident Command System - MNICS
31m ·
05.11.2025 – 4:00 p.m. – Firefighters and multiple aircraft are responding to the Camphouse wildfire located near Brimson, Minnesota. The fire was detected this afternoon shortly before 2:00 p.m.
Minnesota Department of Natural Resources and Superior National Forest firefighters are on site. The public is asked to avoid the area for their own safety and the safety of fire personnel. No drones allowed near the area.

Its 95 degrees F. in International falls right now, breaking the record of 83 degrees.
89 degrees F. at Sea Gull lake and ice went Out on Gunflint lake yesterday.
wow what a temp. change.

IF we don't get a fast greenup and rain it could get interesting this summer-weather suppose to get wet and cooler Thursday-hope

Post from Linden tree; other forum
40+ structures destroyed on the Camp House Fire.

From WDIO
"The fire sizes have grown considerably overnight, according to authorities. Sheriff Gordon Ramsay provided a video statement on Tuesday morning.

The Camp House Fire is now at 12,000 acres. Evacuation orders remain the same.

The Jenkins Creek Fire is at 6,800 acres, and is threatening a more populated area. Sheriff Ramsay said the Skibo area will be under evacuation, as there is concern about that fire growing.

The Munger Shaw fire, also called the Three Lakes Fire is at 1,300 acres, but the evacuation orders have been lifted as of Monday morning.
Ramsay said the Forest Service said they are adding more air support today.
He repeated that it is illegal to cross any road closures."

I wouldn't want a campfire today even if allowed, you would be responsible big time if it got away

Red Flag Warning Issued 5.13.2025
May 13, 2025Leanne LangebergIncidents
The National Weather Service has issued a Red Flag Warning for southwest, northwest and northeast Minnesota today, due to extreme fire risk conditions resulting from relative humidity dropping down to 15% and south winds gusting up to 30-50 mph.

Affected counties include Affected counties include: Aitkin, Becker, Beltrami, Benton, Big Stone, Blue Earth, Brown, Carlton, Cass, Chippewa, Clay, Clearwater, Cook, Cottonwood, Crow Wing, Douglas, Grant, Hubbard, Itasca, Jackson, Kanabec, Kandiyohi, Kittson, Koochiching, Lac Qui Parle, Lake of the Woods, Lake, Lincoln, Lyon, Mahnomen, Marshall, Martin, McLeod, Meeker, Mille Lacs, Morrison, Murray, Nicollet, Nobles, Norman, Otter Tail, Pennington, Pine, Pipestone, Polk, Polk, Pope, Red Lake, Redwood, Renville, Rock, Roseau, Sherburne, Sibley, St. Louis, Stearns, Stevens, Swift, Todd, Traverse, Wadena, Watonwan, Wilkin, Wright, and Yellow Medicine

A Red Flag Warning means fires can spread quickly and grow out of control under the predicted weather conditions, including strong wind and low relative humidity. Residents should not burn in those counties where a Red Flag Warning is in effect and should check any recent burning they might have done to ensure the fire is completely out. The DNR will not issue or activate open burning permits for large vegetative debris burning during the Red Flag Warning, and campfires are discouraged.

For more fire weather information visit www.weather.gov.

Long term it looks like t is going to warm up again and dry-we need a good week of rain rain please come back again