Its going to be interesting with ELY forecasts thru Nov. 14th temps will be about 10 degrees F. above normal.
Gunflint freezing over in January-wow.
Things can change fast.

i remember contemplating a quick paddle on gunflint lake Christmas day 2011. there was plenty of open water and waves. the next morning it was frozen over.
ice out on gunflint 2012 was early march. that seemed crazy at the time.

Mocha: "i remember contemplating a quick paddle on gunflint lake Christmas day 2011. there was plenty of open water and waves. the next morning it was frozen over.
ice out on gunflint 2012 was early march. that seemed crazy at the time."

2012 I went canoeing up the Gunflint March 30th on Moss and Ram lake for lake trout..
Tried to get to Duncan via West Bearskin but could only make it halfway to Duncan portage because of ice.

Pinetree "Its going to be interesting with ELY forecasts thru Nov. 14th temps will be about 10 degrees F. above normal.
Gunflint freezing over in January-wow.
Things can change fast. "

Temps in Ely have been +1F abv avg so far through the 16th for Nov 25'-- see below.


Not sure where you get your weather/climate - but not one reputable forecast had 10F above means from late OCT into mid NOV for the Ely Area. No one that is reputable,,, above -- but no actual forecast.

I think most small lakes are mostly locked up after this AM in the Northland. - and should be avg climo, maybe late by several days, but nothing outside the 60-70% means.

Late NOV/ early DEC looks really interesting for winter weather lovers. I will post soon in the weather forum in a few days when I get better handle on the cold air and the power of the SE ridge (H pressure which will determine storm track) -- Early DEC for many reading could be very cold and snowy... Below avg cold air is coming ( HEADS UP) -- storm tracks, trying to work that out as I write. But the cold (below to much below avg is coming)

"Enjoy the weather - it's the only weather you got."

I think he was looking at the particular day. I saw some places up north were down close to single digits this morning. The forecast looks to be mostly above average until Thanksgiving or so. Spirit Mountain seems to be confident enough to start making snow today. I know how quickly things can turn, hoping they do and we get a good start to the ice season.

Radio had Ely at 9 this morning and lake vermilion web cams showed ice in many of the bays. Looks a bit warm for the next week or so and then the 14 day has us dropping significantly after Thanksgiving. Really hoping for a solid winter this year.

Ice up is here, be smart!

OSAGE, two teenagers had to be rescued after falling through the ice while fishing on a northwest Minnesota lake.

It happened on Straight Lake in Osage, Minnesota, near Detroit Lakes.

According to the Becker County Sheriff’s Office, a 13 and 14-year-old was trying to slide in an otter sled across the ice when the sled broke through.

Authorities responded and found them floating in the sled.

OgemaBlackstone: "Ice up is here, be smart!


OSAGE, two teenagers had to be rescued after falling through the ice while fishing on a northwest Minnesota lake.


It happened on Straight Lake in Osage, Minnesota, near Detroit Lakes.


According to the Becker County Sheriff’s Office, a 13 and 14-year-old was trying to slide in an otter sled across the ice when the sled broke through.


Authorities responded and found them floating in the sled."

lakes wide open in Brainerd

OgemaBlackstone: "Ice up is here, be smart!


OSAGE, two teenagers had to be rescued after falling through the ice while fishing on a northwest Minnesota lake.


It happened on Straight Lake in Osage, Minnesota, near Detroit Lakes.


According to the Becker County Sheriff’s Office, a 13 and 14-year-old was trying to slide in an otter sled across the ice when the sled broke through.


Authorities responded and found them floating in the sled."

Boy are they lucky they didn't fall in. I wouldn't test the ice out up here never mind down there till at least December. The time of the rescue was given @2:50 PM Century Elementary School lists hours of operation Mon-Fri 8am-4pm Closed Sat-Sun... Hooky? In any case I'll bet the boys will not soon forget that lesson any time soon...

OgemaBlackstone: "Ice up is here, be smart!


OSAGE, two teenagers had to be rescued after falling through the ice while fishing on a northwest Minnesota lake.


It happened on Straight Lake in Osage, Minnesota, near Detroit Lakes.


According to the Becker County Sheriff’s Office, a 13 and 14-year-old was trying to slide in an otter sled across the ice when the sled broke through.


Authorities responded and found them floating in the sled."

Straight Lake is a part of the Strait River near Park Rapids. I drive over it all the time on hwy 34. Can't imagine trying to get out on it now. Glad they are ok.

man rescuing dog because ice kept dog from getting to shore-man drowns

Just returned from hiking the Sioux Hustler Trail loop. Camped Sunday day/night on Shell Lake which was mostly open with small white caps. Monday day/night on Range Line Lake which was maybe 1/4 iced. Tuesday morning was 16 degrees at camp but most of Range Line still open. Returned to Shell Tuesday afternoon/night. Lake completely glassed over in ice. Fun to see the change.

average ice in date

Spending the weekend on the North Shore. Today we drove up to Sawbill entry. Not a soul , or car the entire round trip. Just one car track going up , none coming down. Even Sawbill home and store looked bleak
Probably 7-8" snow in the woods away from LS. Near the lake more like 3". Sawbill was frozen solid and I walked out about 50 yards, but slush was evident in animal tracks so without the proper gear , I turned back.

WhiteWolf: "Spending the weekend on the North Shore. Today we drove up to Sawbill entry. Not a soul , or car the entire round trip. Just one car track going up , none coming down. Even Sawbill home and store looked bleak
Probably 7-8" snow in the woods away from LS. Near the lake more like 3". Sawbill was frozen solid and I walked out about 50 yards, but slush was evident in animal tracks so without the proper gear , I turned back.
"

Thanks for the info.
We will be getting some really cold air Montana had last weekend.

Had 2 degrees at home this morning. Hopefully the heavy snow can hold off for a bit as most the lakes in may area just recently closed up. Planning to get out this up coming weekend.

WhiteWolf: "Spending the weekend on the North Shore. Today we drove up to Sawbill entry. Not a soul , or car the entire round trip. Just one car track going up , none coming down. Even Sawbill home and store looked bleak
Probably 7-8" snow in the woods away from LS. Near the lake more like 3". Sawbill was frozen solid and I walked out about 50 yards, but slush was evident in animal tracks so without the proper gear , I turned back.
"

WW, thank you for confirming you out punted your coverage. A fetching lass who likes to spend time on the north shore. Lucky dude.

The Mississippi River backwaters just fully iced over on Sunday and there were already a few crazies testing the limits this morning. Every year it amazes me that some people think catching a few panfish is worth hypothermia or possible death if you break through an inch or two of ice.

NEIowapaddler: "The Mississippi River backwaters just fully iced over on Sunday and there were already a few crazies testing the limits this morning. Every year it amazes me that some people think catching a few panfish is worth hypothermia or possible death if you break through an inch or two of ice. "

How do you know they're crazies, did you go out there and interact with them? I know plenty of normals who will fish on a few inches of frozen ice.

YaMarVa: "How do you know they're crazies, did you go out there and interact with them? I know plenty of normals who will fish on a few inches of frozen ice. "

Not sure if this is a serious comment or tongue-in-cheek, so I'll just say that I guarantee there was less than 2" of ice where they were fishing. Whether that makes them crazy is subjective, I guess...

NEIowapaddler: "

YaMarVa: "How do you know they're crazies, did you go out there and interact with them? I know plenty of normals who will fish on a few inches of frozen ice. "

Not sure if this is a serious comment or tongue-in-cheek, so I'll just say that I guarantee there was less than 2" of ice where they were fishing. Whether that makes them crazy is subjective, I guess..."

It was a serious comment, yes.

NEIowapaddler: "

YaMarVa: "How do you know they're crazies, did you go out there and interact with them? I know plenty of normals who will fish on a few inches of frozen ice. "

Not sure if this is a serious comment or tongue-in-cheek, so I'll just say that I guarantee there was less than 2" of ice where they were fishing. Whether that makes them crazy is subjective, I guess..."

agree with you,too many early drownings in Minnesota and also puts first responders at risk

Can you provide any data to support your claim that there are, too many early drownings in Minnesota? Or is that just an assumption you’re making? I’m pretty sure the annual number in Minnesota is close to 1.

YaMarVa: "Can you provide any data to support your claim that there are, too many early drownings in Minnesota? Or is that just an assumption you’re making? I’m pretty sure the annual number in Minnesota is close to 1.
"

Can you provide any data that makes you pretty sure the number of annual early drownings in Minnesota is close to 1?

LindenTree: "

YaMarVa: "Can you provide any data to support your claim that there are, too many early drownings in Minnesota? Or is that just an assumption you’re making? I’m pretty sure the annual number in Minnesota is close to 1.
"

Can you provide any data that makes you pretty sure the number of annual early drownings in Minnesota is close to 1?"

Yes I can, but I am not the one making the claim there are too many. Pinetree is.

Data is here

It's certainly no surprise that nearly 80 percent of winter drownings are folks on ATVs and snowmobiles in recent years. The popularity of these vehicles, combined with the longterm trend of warmer winters and later freeze-ups and inconsistent ice conditions certainly drives it.

Two inches of hard, clear ice are fine for ice-fishing on foot for most folks on small lakes and backwaters, but you need to constantly check it wherever you go. Your mileage may vary.

arctic: "It's certainly no surprise that nearly 80 percent of winter drownings are folks on ATVs and snowmobiles in recent years. The popularity of these vehicles, combined with the longterm trend of warmer winters and later freeze-ups and inconsistent ice conditions certainly drives it.


Two inches of hard, clear ice are fine for ice-fishing on foot for most folks on small lakes and backwaters, but you need to constantly check it wherever you go. Your mileage may vary."

Bingo. People who are fishing on a few inches of ice are not the problem or crazy.

YaMarVa: "Can you provide any data to support your claim that there are, too many early drownings in Minnesota? Or is that just an assumption you’re making? I’m pretty sure the annual number in Minnesota is close to 1.
"

Wouldn't you say that even 1 drowning is too many? Or if not, how many would you consider an acceptable number?

NEIowapaddler: "

YaMarVa: "Can you provide any data to support your claim that there are, too many early drownings in Minnesota? Or is that just an assumption you’re making? I’m pretty sure the annual number in Minnesota is close to 1.
"

Wouldn't you say that even 1 drowning is too many? Or if not, how many would you consider an acceptable number? "

No, I would not say 1 is too many. I would consider infinity to be the acceptable number. Life is full of risks, and fishing on a few inches of ice is not one of them.

498 people died in car accidents in Minnesota in 2024, should we call car drivers crazy because even 1 fatality is too many?

YaMarVa: "I would not say 1 is too many. I would consider infinity to be the acceptable number. Life is full of risks, and fishing on a few inches of ice is not one of them.


498 people died in car accidents in Minnesota in 2024, should we call car drivers crazy because even 1 fatality is too many?"

I guess we have a fundamentally different view of the value of a human life, then. Not much else to be said on the subject.

NEIowapaddler: "

YaMarVa: "I would not say 1 is too many. I would consider infinity to be the acceptable number. Life is full of risks, and fishing on a few inches of ice is not one of them.



498 people died in car accidents in Minnesota in 2024, should we call car drivers crazy because even 1 fatality is too many?"

I guess we have a fundamentally different view of the value of a human life, then. Not much else to be said on the subject. "

Great deflection. No response to the car equivalent? Therefore would not it appear that you don't value life since those are far more responsible for avoidable deaths than the crazies fishing on thin ice.

I feel like people are arguing with a Bot on this site.

LindenTree: "I feel like people are arguing with a Bot on this site."

I agree. Calling people crazy for engaging in low risk, legal activity is very bot like. It’s too bad people can’t have civil disagreements especially when providing facts.

Getting salty over the word crazies is almost cra

BEARnMOOSE: "Getting salty over the word crazies is almost cra"

Yeah I might be. I enjoy a healthy debate and I don’t like people coming to an online forum to throw stones at people who are enjoying themselves. There was no point to his post but to degrade people he disagrees with. He’s done it before on this site. Othering people is never acceptable.

YaMarVa: "

Great deflection. No response to the car equivalent? Therefore would not it appear that you don't value life since those are far more responsible for avoidable deaths than the crazies fishing on thin ice. "

I didn't respond to that ridiculous comparison because it's clearly apples-to-oranges. Ice fishing on dangerously thin ice would be more comparable to driving 80 mph in a blizzard. If you don't think that would be crazy, I sure hope I never share the road with you.

You clearly have something against me personally, so there's no point in continuing the debate. Feel free to say whatever you want, but I have better things to do than argue with strangers over using the word crazy.

Bringing this back to the original subject, yesterday Lake Bemidji was covered in waves. Today the south end was nearly ice covered with just a few small open areas at mid morning. By tomorrow morning it will all be ice covered if the temperature really hits the -18 predicted.

"Ice fishing on dangerously thin ice would be more comparable to driving 80 mph in a blizzard. "

No it would not be, that's my whole point, its not dangerous. Less than 3 people die annually falling through the ice in Minnesota, and the data doesn't distinguish if it is because of thin ice. So technically no one could be dying annually from fishing on thin ice. Which would suggest its not dangerous and that the ice fishers are not crazy, they are actually aware of current ice conditions.

Therefore, based on the factual data, the more appropriate comparison would be, fishing on a few inches of ice is like driving 55mph on a clear sunny day. Which is also a bad comparison because in Minnesota proportionally more people die driving at 55mph than do fishing on thin ice. If the point is to value life, then I know where I would put my emotional energy, stopping automobile fatalities. Virtually no one in Minnesota is dying from ice fishing on a few inches of ice.

I've lived in Minnesota for over forty years, so yeah, I've driven over 80mph on I-90 a few times during blizzards.

If you don't want to have a civil debate, first, don't post your opinions on a public forum for the whole world to see, and second, just stop responding to me. Its pretty easy.

Since 1967, 267 people have died going thru the ice and drowned in Minnesota. A little over 5 per year.

Pinetree: "Since 1967, 267 people have died going thru the ice and drowned in Minnesota. A little over 5 per year."

That's still very few people and the data doesn't state if its because of thin ice or not. The data does say, of these 5, 80% are related to snowmobiles/ATVs going through. So the average number related to individuals falling through thin ice is essentially less than 1.

If you limit your scope to only include data from the last decade the average number gets even lower than 5:

10-year period = 2013/14 through 2022/23 (30 deaths /10 seasons) 3 deaths per winter season

5-year period = 2018/19 through 2022/23 (14 deaths/5 seasons) 2.8 deaths per winter season

In 1968, over 1,000 people died in car accidents in Minnesota. In 2022 there were 444.

Today's high is 19 degrees below the average and we have been well below average ever day this month and it looks like that will continue. Been checking ice in here and finding 5 inches of solid clear ice, I'll be getting out fishing this weekend for sure.

I keep checking back to this thread to see if we officially qualify for the hardwater and associated NTL game season......

portagerunner: "I keep checking back to this thread to see if we officially qualify for the hardwater and associated NTL game season......"

I think we are, why don't you start it this year.

looks like the far west end of gunflint lake has ice. and seagull bay by the outfitters is iced over and snow covered.