What do people make of these statements on the recreation.gov website?

"Plan Ahead: 40% of last year’s quota permit on-sale reservations were either cancelled or No Shows. Have a few dates or entry points in mind in case your preferred option is unavailable but only reserve what you can use.

Forest Service reserves the right to cancel multiple same day, overlapping, and consecutive reservations under the same permit holder name without notification."

That 40% number is really high. I remember rumors from last year that people were hoarding permits in order to guarantee solitude and campsite availability during their trip. The statements above suggest there's some truth to those rumors and that the Feds may take a proactive role in putting an end to that practice. Is that how other people see it?

Oh boy, here we go again...

NEIowapaddler: "Oh boy, here we go again..."

Hahaha...need emojis!

iCallitMaize: "

NEIowapaddler: "Oh boy, here we go again..."

Hahaha...need emojis! "

Definitely missing the eye roll on this one!

iCallitMaize: "

NEIowapaddler: "Oh boy, here we go again..."

Hahaha...need emojis! "

I really wished I could add a GIF of a guy beating a dead horse. lol

JC...we're not discounting your question/statement...certainly legitimate. That topic has been argued heavily. It's a sore spot for some. I will say this...there's always an available permit somewhere.

iCallitMaize: "JC...we're not discounting your question/statement...certainly legitimate. That topic has been argued heavily. It's a sore spot for some. I will say this...there's always an available permit somewhere..."

Yes, it appears I am missing something. I only come to this website a handful of times a year when I am trip planning so, clearly, I am not up to speed with any current controversy. But whatever.

40% of permits being unused in this way strikes me as suspiciously high--am I the only one for whom it does? I was also shocked last year at being closed out of "reliable" entry points within minutes of them becoming available. That had never happened in my over twenty years of doing this.

At any rate I guess I was wondering more about any information people might have for how the Forest Service will address this problem of unused permits.

JC, this link will help you get up to speed on this.

Permit Hoarding

Another permit hoarding thread

LindenTree: "JC, this link will help you get up to speed on this.

Permit Hoarding

Another permit hoarding thread "

Thanks for sharing.

I mean stats are stats…

The FS had been canceling permits that are for the same time period for several years…nothing new. The only exception is Not for profit groups like Church or youth groups. As a BSA Leader I can do 2 permits for the same day. For example. Last year I had 2 groups going for Scouts at the same time. One starting at Sag and one at Sea Gull. assign a group leader to the other group upon permit pick up.

T

As they should. I can understand the practice of buying a primary and a backup of different dates given the current system. Life happens. It's hard to commit to 1 summer date while it's January. But booking 2 permits on the same date is just abusing the system.

If my math is correct, 40% means that 10,400 entry permits go unused during the five month permit season. Please, someone prove this wrong. It’s hard to believe.

The quoted text from recreation.gov, "Plan Ahead: 40% of last year’s quota permit on-sale reservations were either cancelled or No Shows," does not mean that 40% of all permits were unused. "No Shows" are unused permits, of course but just because a permit is cancelled does not mean that permit slot was not subsequently reserved by someone else.

Ausable: "The quoted text from recreation.gov, "Plan Ahead: 40% of last year’s quota permit on-sale reservations were either cancelled or No Shows," does not mean that 40% of all permits were unused. "No Shows" are unused permits, of course but just because a permit is cancelled does not mean that permit slot was not subsequently reserved by someone else."

That makes sense.

Does anyone know the number of permits that go unused?

I think the key take-a-way here is that they are doing something about it. A little manual intervention to take care of the worst offenders sounds like a good idea to me. I'd rather there was a policy change to make the system better, but this is a step in the right direction.

Several years ago I had 2 permits that could have overlapped. I received a letter from the USFS saying if I didn’t cancel one they would cancel both.

YaMarVa: "

Ausable: "The quoted text from recreation.gov, "Plan Ahead: 40% of last year’s quota permit on-sale reservations were either cancelled or No Shows," does not mean that 40% of all permits were unused. "No Shows" are unused permits, of course but just because a permit is cancelled does not mean that permit slot was not subsequently reserved by someone else."

That makes sense.

Does anyone know the number of permits that go unused?"

I don't know, but I can point you to 2 interesting data presentations. The first is by BWCA.com member Schweady from 2019 (Schweady's 2019 permit study) in which he compiled reservations by day for each entry point, but recorded 1week before each day. That will give you a sense of permit availability 1week out from any day for any EP. Now, Adam and collaborators have shown (here) , in 2025, a significant number of the total number of cancellations occur within 1 week prior to an entry date. My guess is that a majority of those late cancellations ultimately would be unused.

Here is a report from the USDA on some of the cancellations and no shows.

BWCAW Permit and Visitor Use Report 2020-2024

I don’t know how much they are practically doing, but I didn’t get an email about how to use the permit system to avoid the permits being canceled in regards to booking for nonprofits, which I do. So they apparently know I exist and what I do and are trying to help me use it properly. I hope I was before. :-\

Craig K: "Here is a report from the USDA on some of the cancellations and no shows.

BWCAW Permit and Visitor Use Report 2020-2024 "

Thanks! I had forgotten about that interesting report!

CanoeViking: "I don’t know how much they are practically doing, but I didn’t get an email about how to use the permit system to avoid the permits being canceled in regards to booking for nonprofits, which I do. So they apparently know I exist and what I do and are trying to help me use it properly. I hope I was before. :-\"

I recieved a generic message on 1/16 from Recreation.gov
“ Plan Ahead: 40% of last year’s on-sale reservations were either cancelled or no-shows. Only reserve what you can use, and have a few dates or or entry points in mind in case your preferred option is unavailable”

Then late last night just received a more specific one targeted at Non-profit groups direct from the Forest Service…similar message about a high amount of permits on permit day go unused…had detailed instructions on how to reserve as a non-profit…etc… nothing really new from what i could see, but was nice.

Since I reserved both versions in the last year, makes sense why I got two different emails.

They seem to be being released piecemeal vs. one large simultaneous email?

T