The 2025 thread started March 11, so why not start this year's thread on February 28?

The 10 day forecast for Ely is flirting with highs in the mid to high 30s and after a winter of staring at my canoe in the garage I can't help but start to wonder how things will go this year.

Maybe we call it Breakup this year? Water melting date?

The coming week is supposed to be in the 40s with rain almost every day. Yay, March. My least favorite month of the year. But at least it's not snow, I guess.

Little early at this time to make a prediction, but I'll say this spring.
On a serious note, if we are going to have a contest we must have an end date when we can no longer predict. Otherwise I would make my prediction the day before break up.

Z4K: "Maybe we call it Breakup this year? Water melting date?"

Will re-naming the contest un-alive any of the fun?

Since 1970 MN DNR records show ice over on lakes has shrunk two weeks on average and more as you head north. Winters are about 5.5 degr9ees F. warmer than the past.

Bump.

Getting a little nervous. Seeing some people cancel their permits for fishing opener weekend fearing ice out wont happen by then. Weather doesn't look particularly warm over the course of the next two weeks. Should I be worried? We put in 5/9.

Thoughts?

I have a May 7 permit for a smaller southern BW lake, I'm not too worried.
If I was going into Brule or some of the bigger lakes in the Vento unit or Sag at that time, I might be a little worried.

LindenTree: "I have a May 7 permit for a smaller southern BW lake, I'm not too worried.
If I was going into Brule or some of the bigger lakes in the Vento unit or Sag at that time, I might be a little worried."

This makes me feel better then. Biggest lake we'll be on is Horse.

Thank you!

rockstaranon: "Bump.

Getting a little nervous. Seeing some people cancel their permits for fishing opener weekend fearing ice out wont happen by then. Weather doesn't look particularly warm over the course of the next two weeks. Should I be worried? We put in 5/9.

Thoughts?"

If you're on any social media platforms, Voyageur Canoe Outfitters at the end of the Gunflint posts videos almost daily of the ice status on the Sea Gull River and will add reports of Sag as it opens and they can get out with boats. There's a number of others that post ice reports as well but as Linden mentioned, the reports from that area or the Vento are likely the last to open.

A few of the smaller lakes in the Ely area have started to open up but not many.

Open water appeared around the islands on Moose Lake today.
Edge of my seat.
Custom Cabins Moose Lake webcam

I paddled on Fall Lake and portaged to Newton today. Still some ice floating on the lakes. Seems like all the Ely area lakes will be ice free by May 1

Here's a look at the end of the Gunflint Trail this morning. We're lagging behind the west side, but things are starting to move pretty fast.

Instagram update

Facebook update

Andy

Looks like Moose ice is out!

Tuscarora Outfitters (Andy) posted a nice tour of upper Gunflint landings ice conditions. on ihs FB and Instagram.

Cook County MN webcams also has some shots from webcams (Rockwood, Seagull, Gunflint)

My cams mid Gunflint show high water with a lot of grey ice . Ice pulled away from shore. I expect Ice out over next 3 days .

According to Sara at Java Moose Hungary Jack still has over 20 inches

Blatz: "According to Sara at Java Moose Hungary Jack still has over 20 inches"

Those eastern lakes are going to struggle to have full ice out in 10 days with this-

WhiteWolf: "

Blatz: "According to Sara at Java Moose Hungary Jack still has over 20 inches"

Those eastern lakes are going to struggle to have full ice out in 10 days with this-



"

No kidding:

From the Timberjay newspaper,

REGIONAL — Lake Vermilion officially cleared of ice Tuesday, April 28, just two days ahead of the lake’s long-term average. Significant rainfall and wind Monday helped finish off what had been still-extensive ice coverage heading into the weekend.
Vermilion has one of the longest periods of record for ice-out of any lake in northern Minnesota, with some of the earliest records dating to around 1910. The records become more consistent starting around 1940.
Most smaller lakes in the area cleared of ice a few days earlier. According to the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources’ ice-out webpage, Clear Lake went ice-free April 23; One Pine, Bear Head, and Garden lakes all cleared April 24; and Farm Lake and Eagles Nest No. 3 both cleared April 25. Fall Lake cleared April 28, according to state climatologist Pete Boulay.

Still 14" of ice Sawbill Lake 5/1/26

sawbill news

Today's modis still shows Rainy / Kab with significant amounts of ice-- median ice out for KAB is 4/29 and Rainy is 5/4. Bigger Arrowhead lakes are about a week later for median. Areas E of the pic below I didn't share as it's all clouds.

The latest entry in the contest for Hungry Jack is May 12. That might be late enough …

” Further down the trail, Hungry Jack Outfitters reported on April 27 that there was 21 inches of ice on Hungry Jack Lake.”



Waiting on the thaw: ice lingers on inland lakes as fishing opener nears

May 2nd Hungary Jack lake

Today's (May 3rd) Modis-

this morning on gunflint lake. looks like there was some high winds yesterday or overnight. but ice is gone.

GUNFLINT LAKE

Mocha: "
this morning on gunflint lake. looks like there was some high winds yesterday or overnight. but ice is gone.

GUNFLINT LAKE

"

Nice cams, Thanks

Die-Hard fishermen on opening day 2026?
Looks pretty chilly out there.

Hello Graveroad,

Would you be able and willing to provide the URL/Website that you used to create the image that you posted. I can see having access to the map would be very helpful to have

Have a great season!!

From one season right into another ...

Sea Gull lake is ice free now.

How are Shag and Hungry Jack doing? Asking for a friend.

Snow in Ely last night and cold temperatures in the forecast. Bring your cold weather gear if your trip starts soon.

Brownstarandsons: "Hello Graveroad,


Would you be able and willing to provide the URL/Website that you used to create the image that you posted. I can see having access to the map would be very helpful to have


Have a great season!!
"

Ya sure, you betcha. At the link below, deselect “NWS Hazards and Warnings.” Select “Observations” then “Surface Observations.” Give it a moment to load, increase the scale/reduce area shown and then select “All” for the greatest detail. Current observations can then be viewed; use the 3-day or 7-day options for recent history.


NWS Weather and Hazards Data Viewer

Just saw Sawbill is also open

JimmyJustice: "How are Shag and Hungry Jack doing? Asking for a friend."

I think Shag went out around 4/27, haven't heard about HJ.
Anyone know?

LindenTree: "

JimmyJustice: "How are Shag and Hungry Jack doing? Asking for a friend."

I think Shag went out around 4/27, haven't heard about HJ.
Anyone know?"

Trying social media up there and no reports. I'am guessing ice is still in (partly) for most lakes Hungry Jack and East-- especially border lakes and Pine /Greenwood and Trout etc. (not that crazy as they are about "avg")
I-Falls yesterday broke a record for coldest high at 38F - old record was 39F in 1950 and 1979- and just missed setting a min cold temp at 23F (22F in 2021).
Regardless of ice out in the BWCA-- looks to me to be a week plus after the opener when the eye really bite with much warmer weather in the cards-- especially W side. Even with ice out on many lakes -- water temps- due to current well below normal temps- are likely still too cold for the eyes to turn on for the opener-- Lake Trout might be on fire!!!!

Eyes should be jumping in the canoe by the weekend of the 15th. :O) Will be on a lake just SE of Ely and I think the timing will be perfect. But what do I know? Pigs should be in eddies of the current---

I-Falls has of last hour tied a record low for 5/07 of 19F last set in 2004. It's a handful of times past May 5th that I-Falls gets in the teens ......
Hibbing is one short. (20F) in 2019.
Guessing Bemidji is near record low also.



Again- ice may be out- but those waters are damn cold for those venturing out. AND- its damn cold out for ambient temp. Little or no margin of error for a capsize. Please be safe especially with the high water.

WhiteWolf: "I-Falls has of last hour tied a record low for 5/07 of 19F last set in 2004. It's a handful of times past May 5th that I-Falls gets in the teens ......
Hibbing is one short. (20F) in 2019.
Guessing Bemidji is near record low also.





Again- ice may be out- but those waters are damn cold for those venturing out. AND- its damn cold out for ambient temp. Little or no margin of error for a capsize. Please be safe especially with the high water. "

The Falls wanted to make sure that Embarrass didn’t steal its thunder this time - dropped another degree to bottom out at 18 at sunrise:

gravelroad: "

WhiteWolf: "I-Falls has of last hour tied a record low for 5/07 of 19F last set in 2004. It's a handful of times past May 5th that I-Falls gets in the teens ......
Hibbing is one short. (20F) in 2019.
Guessing Bemidji is near record low also.







Again- ice may be out- but those waters are damn cold for those venturing out. AND- its damn cold out for ambient temp. Little or no margin of error for a capsize. Please be safe especially with the high water. "

The Falls wanted to make sure that Embarrass didn’t steal its thunder this time - dropped another degree to bottom out at 18 at sunrise:


"

Good catch Graveload-- and that's a record low for 5/7 for I-Falls at 18F beating the record of 19F in 2004. Glad I'am not going for amatuer "opener"--- going to be tough fishing one would think --

Does any one have information on ice conditions/predictions in the Quetico Lake area?
Thank you in advance.

LindenTree: "

JimmyJustice: "How are Shag and Hungry Jack doing? Asking for a friend."

I think Shag went out around 4/27, haven't heard about HJ.
Anyone know?"

Hungry Jack Lodge just posted that there is some ice still floating around and guess it will all be gone by tomorrow night which would be 5/8

AYue: "Does any one have information on ice conditions/predictions in the Quetico Lake area?
Thank you in advance."

We finally got a glimpse via satellite yesterday for part of Quetico...a window that appears to show Poobah wide open.

The Park reported yesterday that French Lake still has ice but it's getting close.

Best guess is that Quetico Lake, Pickerel and the other big bodies on the North side go out by Monday or Tuesday, though it could be sooner.

Shag - May 5th (per DNR)
Hungry Jack - May 9th (per Hungry Jack Outfitters).

Some joker had this as his prediction on the ice out contest. How for off was this dolt? :)