Anyone else get tired of dire predictions people make? Facebook is especially bad. All the fires are going to merge! The fires will burn until snow! Practically no amount of rain will help!

I think the updates we get from the IC team don't help. They have a legitimate interest in keeping the public scared. Can't have people ignoring evacuation orders, etc.

I saw a post, I believe from an official source, saying "extreme fire behavior was observed" (this was a day or two after the big blowup) and the photo was of a jackpine tree where the ground fire had burned under it without getting into the crown at all. That's not extreme fire behavior, that's beneficial fire right there.

Someone on Facebook just posted that "another 1000 acres added to the Sioux fire" yesterday (Sunday). The official update actually said "minimal fire growth" , satellites showed nothing, so if a 1000 acres were added, it was updated mapping, not a raging inferno.

And burning until winter? Sure. Maybe. That just means its a big enough fire that there will be hot spots until snow. Doesn't mean there's going to be pyrocumulous clouds in October!

So I'm reasonably optimistic going forward. The 6-10 Outlook shows wetter than average for northern MN. Even light rain will keep the humidity up and these fires laid down. Could we get another stretch of fire weather? Absolutely. We could have an unprecedented month of 90+ heat and low humidity. Anything is possible. More likely it's going to be closer to average with occasional rain and higher humidity. No one can really predict the weather.

I'm planning a Quetico trip for the second half of August, and I'm going to hike the Snowbank trail in September. We will get through this. See you out there.

I mean it was a public official who was giving a fire status report that mentioned the burning until snow remark FWIW

I agree. I watched some of the briefing last night and I was a bit disappointed in the rhetoric used by the people in charge. I get that they don't want to seem overly optimistic for a variety of reasons, but too often they seemed to stray a bit far in the other direction.

The statement about the fires burning until snowfall was a mistake IMO. Or at least should've been clarified. When people hear that, they think that there's going to be a raging inferno for the next 4 months.

I prefer to listen to the scientist. Those who actually know what they're talking about.

A basic human trait is that under stress we regress. We truly lose access to that part of our brain that reasons and manages impulsivity and more. I take this into consideration during these times.

Little Knife fire was downgraded in size to 3,345 acres.

What needs to be considered is how much this apocalyptic rhetoric will impact the people of Ely. If people stay away it will have a huge impact on the town’s economy.

I want to hear what the scientists and professionals and the experienced have to say, even if it’s difficult to hear. And I don’t want to tell them what or how to say it. Give me the facts and the evidence and your honest opinions. Don’t change the story so it’s easier for me to hear it. Facebook and social media are not great places to get our news, I don’t go there at all for any of the news.

ForkyKnifespoon: "I want to hear what the scientists and professionals and the experienced have to say, even if it’s difficult to hear. And I don’t want to tell them what or how to say it. Give me the facts and the evidence and your honest opinions. Don’t change the story so it’s easier for me to hear it. Facebook and social media are not great places to get our news, I don’t go there at all for any of the news."

I don't think anybody is asking to change the story to make it easier, we are just tired of exaggeration being done by people who don't understand what they are talking about and much of that has been due to some professionals giving information that, while technically may be true, gets taken out of context. The mainstream media is almost completely worthless today, real journalism there is a thing of the past. They just regurgitate whatever they are told, usually heavily sensationalized and biased to increase engagement. At least there are a select few social media sources that actually still do real journalism and/or generally know something about the topics they talk about (this site has some of those posters), but vetting them takes a level of effort that most people aren't willing to put in.

People aren't always the brightest! I am actively monitoring the Superior National Forest Fires (BW trip Labor Day) and fires in the San Juan Mountains in Colorado (heading there next week).

When I was reading a fire update today for CO, they said they had to pause firefighting efforts because someone flew a drone into the restricted area...

So while many of us follow the rules on closures, evacuations, or other advice from official sources. There are always people who don't.

Journalists report what they see and hear and embellish where they want for a good story. The Gov't guys are not helping.

What I told my family is this in a nutshell:

Many people living through the current fires have not lived through big fires in the past so this is new to them and they don't know when the end will happen. I've lived through several 'catastrophic' fires, maybe I should say witnessed, not like crawled through the flames.

This too shall pass. And even if we lose 50% of the boundary waters, this too shall pass. We are in a crisis today and people don't know what to feel. I understand their fear.

I am essentially not reading any news on this since it's painful. But I am on this forum for the best accurate and level-headed information.
Tom

tumblehome: "Journalists report what they see and hear and embellish where they want for a good story. The Gov't guys are not helping.


What I told my family is this in a nutshell:


Many people living through the current fires have not lived through big fires in the past so this is new to them and they don't know when the end will happen. I've lived through several 'catastrophic' fires, maybe I should say witnessed, not like crawled through the flames.


This too shall pass. And even if we lose 50% of the boundary waters, this too shall pass. We are in a crisis today and people don't know what to feel. I understand their fear.


I am essentially not reading any news on this since it's painful. But I am on this forum for the best accurate and level-headed information.
Tom


"

Well said Tom and I will add this. This is part of the natural cycle. This has to happen so our descendants will be able to see what we saw pre-fire.
Just sucks in the short term.

Blatz: "I prefer to listen to the scientist. Those who actually know what they're talking about."

So not every Tom, Dick, and Harry coming out of the woodwork to voice their strong opinion on poor forest management, the need for logging, etc?!?!

marsonite: "Anyone else get tired of dire predictions people make?

"

Gosh yes, and I sure appreciate all the balanced comments. Even the local weather forecasts are becoming too sensationalized about what COULD happen and less accurate about what DOES happen. C'mon!

Toyota launched an all new 4Runner in 2025 along with an all new Land Cruiser hybrid. The forums went nuts with doomsday predictions (won't be reliable, turbos are bad, hybrids are bad, not enough this, too much that, "YOU'LL SEE", blah blah blah)...the predictions were viciously negative. Now they are setting sales records, owners love them, and they are hard to find.

On the weather side, any time I think we're experiencing something truly unusual I talk to the local elderly farmer and he's always seen worse and never gets excited about weather.

I apologize if my comment came off as insensitive. I agree that journalism and the news is largely mostly interested in selling advertising or otherwise attracting and retaining readers and viewers. I wasn’t thinking about the damages this might be causing if it’s not being reported responsibly. We all need to be good critical readers and viewers. I wish logic was a required course in all our high schools, or even earlier.

OldGuide2: "What needs to be considered is how much this apocalyptic rhetoric will impact the people of Ely. If people stay away it will have a huge impact on the town’s economy."

Thanks OG2. This is a huge hit for Ely. The businesses outside of closure areas are trying to let people know they are still open for business. Obviously some activities need extra precautions when the smoke is bad but there is so much to do.

Agree I am tired of all the “recliner” experts chiming in, but I also just need to lay off of the media and social media ;

It is human nature to be doom and gloom… it’s probably genetic to prepare ourselves for the worst.

I also HATE how everyone is politicalizing the fires…it’s global warming! It’s poor forest management! Blame Canada!

These fires in some form were coming no matter what…between insects killing off trees, the ‘99 blow down the amount of fuel for them was unprecedented in my lifetime. There is largely no infrastructure “to manage” these forests…the costs are prohibitively high and no politician would live through a tax hike to prevent something that may or may not happen. The fire areas are largely in uninhabited and partially uninhabitable on any large scale. The temps on the Border were pushing over a 100 while my home town down south was in the 70’s and 80’s…that’s not global warming that’s weather…if I have to explain it further…it’s a waste of my time as you are cemented in a belief not a science and I believe in climate change I am not a denier…I just know the difference. But both sides are exhausting…

These fires have happened before…they will happen again…and hopefully in my great grandchildren’s or great great grand children’s lives they happen again as it is part of Mother Nature and good for the forest.

It screws up my trip…so I selfishly hate it :)

Mostly I feel for the communities affected. This is peak season to make money. I will try to make a trip up during my failed permit (if I won’t be in the way) and spend some money. Otherwise I don’t know how else to help.

T