Boundary Waters Quetico Forum :: Winter Camping and Activities :: Wicked Cold
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WhiteWolf |
whitecedar: "White Wolf: Earlier this Fall you mentioned the chance of severe cold late January early February, once again you allude to this occurring. When you have some time could you elaborate about your forecast? I will later today. And the why's (what got us to this point even when it was mild - though to be honest , I didn't see it being as mild for as long as it was) before the obvious. When one looks at the past several months they will generally see the period from early Oct to early Dec rather cold to the avg's - then early Dec to mid Jan very warm and many expect the period from mid Jan to early March to again be very cold compared to the avg's. In a nut a 60 day cold period followed by 35 day warm period and followed by a another 50+ extended cold period (to avgs). No time now to elaborate further, but I will go into more detail later on why this happening--- but the wind chill in ELY is -54F as of 4:15AM. (Old school before the NWS redid the wind chill in 2001 would push this close to -70F). Any slush on area lakes should have taken a serious hardening up. One of coldest wind chills I have seen in some time in the lower 48 outside elevation in the Mtns. |
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WhiteWolf |
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WhiteWolf: "whitecedar: "White Wolf: Earlier this Fall you mentioned the chance of severe cold late January early February, once again you allude to this occurring. When you have some time could you elaborate about your forecast? What do you think March will look like? What do you think March will look like. |
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Jaywalker |
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WhiteWolf |
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Jaywalker |
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WhiteWolf |
-36F in Ely as I write--- the next 10-15 days have the chance to see -50F. What you get and what you see Things that don't come easily Feeling happy in my vein Icicles within my brain Something blowing in my head Winter's ice, it soon will spread Death would freeze my very soul Makes me happy, makes me cold My eyes are blind but I can see The snowflakes glisten on the tree The sun no longer sets me free I feel there's no place freezing me Let the winter sun shine on Let me feel the frost of dawn Fill my dreams with flakes of snow Soon I'll feel the chilling glow |
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whitecedar |
Thanks! |
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MN_Lindsey |
I think I still have PTSD from that trip. I'm not worthy anymore! |
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WhiteWolf |
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WhiteWolf |
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Pinetree |
fsupp: "WhiteWolf: "whitecedar: "White Wolf: Earlier this Fall you mentioned the chance of severe cold late January early February, once again you allude to this occurring. When you have some time could you elaborate about your forecast? You know you get low spots like on a lake you may be able to subtract another 10 degrees F. |
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WhiteWolf |
Now onto the cold. The GFS ( American Model) has not wavered from its depiction of -40C air at H85 ( 1 mile up) arriving Tuesday night. This would be consistent with the Feb 1st-2nd, 1996 event, which many likely remember as bringing record-setting cold to parts of Minnesota. The ECMWF (Euro model) and NAM (North American short range) are "warmer," and seemingly a tad more realistic. Keep in mind that "warmer" in this scenario still translates to lows in the -25F to -30F range and highs from -10F to -20F on Wednesday. Which while extremely cold would not quite be record-setting. One element this event does look to have over the 1996 event is more wind. Tuesday night-Wednesday we look to have at least a 10-15 mph breeze, which will make for wind chills from -40F to -55F, solidly into warning criteria range. Wednesday night into Thursday we lose some wind as the surface high pressure settles in, but we should still have 5-10 mph winds with which to contend, yielding wind chills in the ballpark of -35F to -50F. |
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WhiteWolf |
: "WhiteWolf: "whitecedar: "White Wolf: Earlier this Fall you mentioned the chance of severe cold late January early February, once again you allude to this occurring. When you have some time could you elaborate about your forecast? If one looks back since OCT - (the cooler seasons have a much different look to jet streams and storm wavelengths than the warm months) when some cards were laid down by Mother Nature - most locations in the Upper Midwest saw the period from OCT 10 to DEC 10th quite cold. The period from Dec 11th to about Jan 12th was quite warm. I'd expect a similar 60 day period from Jan 13th through about the middle of March of similar deviations below normal that were seen from Oct 10 to the DEC 10th. Of course that doesn't mean you can't have several 3-5 day warm stretchs in their some place. In short- I expect the period from this writing - up until the middle of March or so - to be below the 30 year averaged mean temps.. |
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WhiteWolf |
also remember that as a forecaster gets closer to the time frame being forecasted - the easier it gets to believe absurdly cold/warm temps. That is why you see things adjusted (sometimes greatly) the closer you get to the time frame in question. 5-7 day forecasts by NOAA - will use trends , not exactly raw #'s spit out by model guidance which is actually smart as at that range (they expertise is not long range) things can change fast and they actually rely more on climo at the 6-7 day range than anything else. This upcoming cold snap (especially next week) is a little different in that it's basically Controlling the weather in such a way it's impossible not to notice it a week out. Without local knowledge and little forecasting skill in that area for winter I venture the following based on what I do for "other areas"-- Friday night into Sat Am - (in and around Ely is tough) but here is a best guess - -26F to -34. A slight breeze from the SW. Sat night into Sun AM-- -32F to -38F - nearly calm winds. |
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fsupp |
WhiteWolf: "whitecedar: "White Wolf: Earlier this Fall you mentioned the chance of severe cold late January early February, once again you allude to this occurring. When you have some time could you elaborate about your forecast? WhiteWolf, would you mind sharing your temperature projections for this weekend in and around Ely? Weather.gov predicts lows no lower than -28, but the Weather Service has been underestimating the current cold snap. Thanks. |