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Author	Message Text
TechnoScout	04/27/2022 07:56AM   WhiteWolf: "LOTW usually a good week to even 2 weeks earlier than most Big BW lakes for ice out on AVG---30" of ice - you do the math-- photo was taken y-day. F Book link I would say now with current forecast that most lakes in BW in the Eastern Half - esp Gunflint and E along the border - are iced over or have some ice come MN fishing opener. The writing has been on the wall for sometime but now it seems almost certain lakes like Gunflint/Brule/SAG/Seagull have ice issues come opener. Now it comes down to Lac La Croix/ Snowbank etc. and even smaller lakes further W -- it will be very close but such cold water that walleye fishing ( to the norm) will be difficult as I would think spawn is very delayed. Currently 10F at Crane Lake. Signs of a pattern change in about 10 days-- but it will likely be too late for many--- Just my .02. " I love your posts, but this one is a little cryptic for me. You saying ice out for larger lakes will be after May 14 (a date I understand to be the W opener)?
gravelroad	04/19/2022 05:46PM   CBS3 in Duluth just broadcast a report from Pike Bay on Vermilion: 22 to 26 inches of ice. Lost 8 in the last week. West side lakes might be okay for the opener. East side – might want to keep the auger and ice picks in your vehicle for the time being.
Speckled	04/27/2022 08:23AM   WhiteWolf: "LOTW usually a good week to even 2 weeks earlier than most Big BW lakes for ice out on AVG---30" of ice - you do the math-- photo was taken y-day. F Book link I would say now with current forecast that most lakes in BW in the Eastern Half - esp Gunflint and E along the border - are iced over or have some ice come MN fishing opener. The writing has been on the wall for sometime but now it seems almost certain lakes like Gunflint/Brule/SAG/Seagull have ice issues come opener. Now it comes down to Lac La Croix/ Snowbank etc. and even smaller lakes further W -- it will be very close but such cold water that walleye fishing ( to the norm) will be difficult as I would think spawn is very delayed. Currently 10F at Crane Lake. Signs of a pattern change in about 10 days-- but it will likely be too late for many--- Just my .02. " I agree - Ely area will be very close to opener, while gunflint will almost certianly have ice on fishing opener.
Regepc	05/13/2022 09:08AM   Just made it to grand Marais after leaving at 3am this morning. Buzz at the holiday gas station says they are closing 61 at cascade river due to flash flood concerns. I made it just in time! Heading up to north fowl, wish me luck!
WhiteWolf	04/08/2022 04:38PM   That 95% ranking stripe is impressive - likely due to this-
tumblehome	04/08/2022 07:45PM   Median ice-out dates: Gunflint May 6 Shagwa April 27 Sag May 6 Sawbill My 7 Fall April 28 Seagull May 1 Clearwater east side of BWCA May 4 With these numbers, I think we often hope for early ice-out when in reality, this is just a normal season. Or more likely, a little late. As an extreme, Gunflint didn’t go out til June at least once before. I am quite certain none of the lakes on this list will have ice-out in April. No way!
Speckled	04/08/2022 08:32PM   WhiteWolf: "That 95% ranking stripe is impressive - likely due to this- " Our home sits in that purple dot of 24 inches by the Lake County line. I can attest to it being accurate.
Pinetree	03/23/2022 06:57PM   Banksiana: "I took a Quetico trek in 12 that began 4/7. Unfortunately this is what my last Canadian portage looked like. " Been there in Quetico numerous times that I was the first of the year to go across potages. It added something extra and wild to the trip.
gravelroad	04/27/2022 01:41PM   Since April 1, the Gunflint Lake observer has reported ONE overnight low at 32 or above. First column is temperature at time of report, second is max in last 24 hours, third is minimum in last 24 hours:
Stumpy	04/09/2022 02:14AM   tumblehome: "Median ice-out dates: Gunflint May 6 Shagwa April 27 Sag May 6 Sawbill My 7 Fall April 28 Seagull May 1 Clearwater east side of BWCA May 4 With these numbers, I think we often hope for early ice-out when in reality, this is just a normal season. Or more likely, a little late. As an extreme, Gunflint didn’t go out til June at least once before. I am quite certain none of the lakes on this list will have ice-out in April. No way! " Agree
Stumpy	04/19/2022 09:49PM   gravelroad: "WhiteWolf: "Edit to the above with some non airport data *** EDIT *** Embarrass,MN was -14F on 4/20 and 4/21 2013. Embarrass is also where it was -60F in early Feb,1996 -- the coldest temp ever recorded in MN. Gunflint Lake recorded -9F and -8F on the same dates in 2013. Also -2F 7miles NW of Two Harbors on 4/20/2013 -- a member of this site I believe. " Sigh. My Embarrass-based family on my mother's side is gonna hate me for this, but I gotta correct the record. That -60 was officially recorded at nearby Tower, not Embarrass, to the towering and everlasting embarrassment of the latter: Tower, Embarrass Still Debating Which Was Colder in 1996 " Really Embarrass beat the -60 of Tower by a couple degrees, but their mercury separated on the official thermometer..... So it's not "official" .
WhiteWolf	04/20/2022 02:07AM   my bad on the Embarrass -60F,, officially it's Tower. Tower was also well below zero on those same dates in April of 2013, I just didn't check at the time and actually in my mind combined the two as one really cold place :O)
ducks	04/21/2022 07:01PM   This from Rockwood’s website today. The ice is thicker and there is more a lot more snow than there was on March 24. “Our best guess on Poplar Lake ice out: Between May 12 and May 20 Poplar Lake ice report 04/21/2022: over 30? ice, 17? inches of snow and slush on top”
HWMinngrl	04/09/2022 09:09AM   This has me fascinated! I have a trip planned to Gunflint from May 31-June 4…is there a chance there would still be ice or snow? That will shock my husband from New Orleans who thinks winter is over by the end of February!
HWMinngrl	04/09/2022 09:11AM   tumblehome: "Median ice-out dates: Gunflint May 6 Shagwa April 27 Sag May 6 Sawbill My 7 Fall April 28 Seagull May 1 Clearwater east side of BWCA May 4 With these numbers, I think we often hope for early ice-out when in reality, this is just a normal season. Or more likely, a little late. As an extreme, Gunflint didn’t go out til June at least once before. I am quite certain none of the lakes on this list will have ice-out in April. No way! " This has me fascinated! I have a trip planned to Gunflint from May 31-June 4…is there a chance there would still be ice or snow? That will shock my husband from New Orleans who thinks winter is over by the end of February!
Adamk	04/18/2022 10:51AM   I have a trip coming up on may 15-21st, we are driving up from Sterling Heights MI…. Should we be worried about the ice not being out by then ? We are coming in at ep 25 moose lake and heading up to knife lake before spending a couple days on kekekabic
Jaywalker	05/03/2022 10:42AM   Maybe this will help put some things in context. The photo below is Moose lake from 2018 on May 6. Just 2-3 days before, the entire lake looked like the section a above the island. I think it was 6 days l later on May 12 I paddled in a T-shirt up Moose and into Knife without seeing any ice anywhere. Once it starts to go black, it can break up very quickly.
Tuscarora Outfitters	04/09/2022 03:32PM   Here's where we are at on Round Lake today: A Quick Update Andy
WhiteWolf	04/09/2022 04:36PM   HWMinngrl: "tumblehome: "Median ice-out dates: Gunflint May 6 Shagwa April 27 Sag May 6 Sawbill My 7 Fall April 28 Seagull May 1 Clearwater east side of BWCA May 4 With these numbers, I think we often hope for early ice-out when in reality, this is just a normal season. Or more likely, a little late. As an extreme, Gunflint didn’t go out til June at least once before. I am quite certain none of the lakes on this list will have ice-out in April. No way! " This has me fascinated! I have a trip planned to Gunflint from May 31-June 4…is there a chance there would still be ice or snow? That will shock my husband from New Orleans who thinks winter is over by the end of February! " Of course there is a chance because it has happened before. ( though extremely small) --- 1950 is not in the records for Gunflint Lake (likely even later than 1936) but in 1936 Justine Kerfoot WALKED across Gunflint Lake on June 1st. Official ice out that year for Gunflint Lake was 6/03- just two days later.
plander	04/22/2022 07:37PM   plander: "Average vs 2022 so far… " Average vs 2022 (as of April 22)
Pinetree	03/21/2022 10:10PM   Trolling Just a little water on the ice
Pinetree	03/21/2022 09:13PM   nctry: "Mocha: "are you naming a specific lake for your guestimate? smaller lakes go out earlier than larger lakes...." There is that... I leave the guessing to the experts. It’s just incredible to me that one day the snow was 4’ minimum around my yard and the difference a few days made..." Did my last cross-country skiing in Brainerd today. 6 inches in the wood and bare in the fields. Two weeks ago, we had 24 inches in the woods. Crappie fished a small lake today and only had 16 inches of ice. Quite common to have 24-30 inches still. Remember December was like 8 degrees above normal, then we got snow and insulated the lakes. I am looking at maybe even early ice out around here. But it all depends on what temps are from here forward.
WhiteWolf	03/22/2022 06:24AM   I will now say late. ( before in previous threads I said not enough data). Now there is. This current system is going to crush the E side of the BW with 1-2' of snow. ( local amounts of 30" are possible ) ** see below- This will be followed by temps near 0F this upcoming wk-end at Ely and Crane Lake and Grand Marais airport. -- Now the signs I pointed to in other threads of this "warmup" switching back to the trends of the last 3-4 months of cold seem to becoming more reality. I'd say ice out ( Central BW lakes - Shagawa / Gunflint) normal to late is 66% - early to normal is 33% as of this writing. Of course - one big rain/wind event could change things drastically in the next month which is nearly impossible to predict. But what is not is trends, and the trends are for the cold winter to continue into a cold spring and an over active precip/snow threat comapared to normal . If I had a permit for May 1st- May 6th for big deep E side Lakes ( Gunflint/SAG and EAST) - I wouldn't get overly concerned yet, but I would really be following the weather in the next two/three weeks from now or so because that will likely decide it.
HighnDry	03/22/2022 09:36AM   Pinetree: " Trolling Just a little water on the ice" Wow. If that's Lake of the Woods, I hope he was able to get himself AND that ice house off the lake before it all broke up. I'd be sweating bullets on that drive out! :)
KarlBAndersen1	04/30/2022 11:11AM   MikeinMpls: "wanderingfromkansas: "ducks: 6- From the Rockwood website……. Poplar Lake ice report 04/28/2022: over 33? ice, 2? inches of snow on top" They also predict Poplar ice out at May 16-20. I’d feel bad for those whose permits get messed up, but I’d be thrilled with a May 20 ice out!" I've got a May 22 permit for Lizz Lake. This will be a close call! Mike" My permit is the 20th. I think I'll stay home.
Mocha	03/23/2022 05:56AM   Snow coming down in new ulm this morning. Wet and heavy
Speckled	03/21/2022 09:59PM   I still have 2 feet of snow in our yard. 4 miles inland from Superior in the Knife River Valley. Our cabin between Ely and Two Harbors is about the same.
Speckled	03/21/2022 03:32PM   No particular lake - just in general. There's a range there. I've got a trip planned to enter on 04/29 to chase some crappies. It is moving water, so it should go a little earlier. It'll be close!
TacoOverland	05/09/2022 10:19AM   OMGitsKa: "The Moose Lake live cam shows the ice is starting to break up pretty good. " I’ve been watching that. Fun stuff.
Maiingan	04/27/2022 03:51PM   I will be fishing with 2 lines opener.
Speckled	03/22/2022 11:18AM   Pinetree: " Trolling Just a little water on the ice" That's a crazy video!
HighnDry	03/23/2022 08:27AM   Same in MSP! Back to winter, I guess....for awhile...
Rockwood	03/23/2022 09:16AM   Poplar Lake and the entry for Lizz Lake is usually a few days later than most estimates. The lake ice breaks up and heads over to the bay where the Lizz Lake portage is, creating an ice log jam. So the center of Poplar may be ice free but you'll need to wait a day or two to get into Lizz. I'm telling people anything earlier than May 14 is sketchy, have a backup plan.
Pinetree	03/23/2022 10:30AM   santacruz: "Somewhat unrelated, but related, our East Central Wisconsin 1064-acre lake, with 15 inches of ice this year opened up on the North, Central part of the lake overnight. The wind is out of the north today which is advancing the open water by the hour. We have a cold, crappy, cloudy day, but I do believe the lake will be ice free in 24 hours." When is normal ice out on your lake?
bennojr	03/28/2022 07:46AM   It's nine below here on Isabella according to my phone right now. My wild guess is May 8th.
gravelroad	03/27/2022 03:30PM   Agate Bay refroze overnight in Two Harbors. It was just under five degrees above zero at our house in Duluth this morning. I think we should start a contest for biggest fish caught through a hole on the opener ...
Kendis	03/28/2022 07:41AM   Anyone want to opine on the ice out date for EP 25 Moose Lake for a trip up to Knife and maybe as far as Saganaga? Asking for a friend.
ducks	04/07/2022 06:27AM   I read that Gunflint Trail Lakes still have 2 to 3 feet of ice and they had a foot of snow on the ground before the additional foot they got yesterday. 14 day forecast is for highs in the 30s and 40s and nighttime lows in the 20s and teens.
plander	04/15/2022 09:41AM   Average vs 2022 so far…
cburton103	04/15/2022 07:06PM   plander: "Average vs 2022 so far… " Yep, going to be a late ice out for sure, especially with the highs below freezing today and tomorrow with more snow on the way the next few days. Hopefully the rain forecast for next weekend will get things starting to move along! My trip begins May 27th, which is a week or two earlier than I typically go, and this year spring looks a week or two late. Hopefully that will increase cooperation from Lake Trout and walleye!
Banksiana	04/16/2022 01:54PM   Despite the cold and the snow spring is happening up north. There is water running through the swamps, in the ditches and open water around any current. On Tuesday I was greeted by gulls (usually I say two weeks from gulls to open water- maybe three this year) on Burntside and more than half of the Dead River had an open channel, by the end of this week I doubt I will be able to get from Everett to East Twin because of open water.
gravelroad	04/17/2022 08:47AM   Banksiana: "Despite the cold and the snow spring is happening up north. There is water running through the swamps, in the ditches and open water around any current. On Tuesday I was greeted by gulls (usually I say two weeks from gulls to open water- maybe three this year) on Burntside and more than half of the Dead River had an open channel, by the end of this week I doubt I will be able to get from Everett to East Twin because of open water." Oh yeah, that melt is just roaring along. ;-)
Banksiana	04/17/2022 03:01PM   There is water running beneath the snow. When skiing today I would get surprised by noisy rushes of water beneath the snow despite most of a week of below freezing temperatures. Then again this might be the latest I've ever skied the North Arm Trails.
Pinetree	04/17/2022 09:32PM   Mocha: "My paddle partner, Bonnie, sent me this photo . It's the gunflint trail on Friday April 15. " Talking maybe 10 inches more tonight up there.
Mocha	04/17/2022 04:03PM   My paddle partner, Bonnie, sent me this photo . It's the gunflint trail on Friday April 15.
WhiteWolf	04/19/2022 03:13AM   On the bright side of things-- at least the BW/Q is not in North Dakota. Cando,ND at -2F at 2:55AM 4/19/2022-- latest in the season I've seen below zero temps in the Plains/Upper Midwest at an airport--other than Hibbing,MN at -1F on 4/20/2013. To put that against other longer term climate sites in the region- Record lows for 4/19 are- Grand Forks- 7F (they have at least tied it and now 4 consecutive min records) - Fargo- 11F and I-Falls 15F. So BW/Q fanatics wishing the ice a quick exit got that gonna for ya-- (which is nice)- BTW- 12F at Crane Lake as I write.
Kendis	04/19/2022 06:58AM   Yesterday, USFS canceled my camping reservation at Fall Lake Campground for May 6. The campground's open season now begins on May 9. Seems like USFS believes a later ice out is in the cards too or at least that colder temperatures will last farther into May than expected.
WhiteWolf	04/19/2022 03:45AM   Edit to the above with some non airport data *** EDIT *** Embarrass,MN was -14F on 4/20 and 4/21 2013. Embarrass is also where it was -60F in early Feb,1996 -- the coldest temp ever recorded in MN. Gunflint Lake recorded -9F and -8F on the same dates in 2013. Also -2F 7miles NW of Two Harbors on 4/20/2013 -- a member of this site I believe.
deepwater	04/19/2022 09:05AM   From what I can tell, Gunflint Lake is typically one of the last lakes to be ice free each year. Based on the data available on the DNR website, Gunflint has only had ice for the opener on 4 occasions since 1936. Albeit, the data is spotty and subjective. Like every year, I think trips planned for opener will be fine. The odds are heavily in our favor at least.
wanderingfromkansas	04/26/2022 12:41PM   I hope Carl doesn't mind, but below is a link to the Rockwood webcam. There they keep updates on ice on Poplar, and their predicted ice out. Currently, they're saying May 12-20. https://www.rockwoodbwca.com/webcam/
Speckled	04/26/2022 12:50PM   wanderingfromkansas: "I hope Carl doesn't mind, but below is a link to the Rockwood webcam. There they keep updates on ice on Poplar, and their predicted ice out. Currently, they're saying May 12-20. https://www.rockwoodbwca.com/webcam/" Lol - ya, look at that webcam. I just can't see ice being out by fishing opener up the Gunflint. I think Ely side will be close...my current guess is just before opener. We had snow yesterday evening through the night and flurries this morning. Everything was white and covered when we woke up this morning in the Knife River Valley.
WhiteWolf	04/27/2022 03:14AM   LOTW usually a good week to even 2 weeks earlier than most Big BW lakes for ice out on AVG---30" of ice - you do the math-- photo was taken y-day. F Book link I would say now with current forecast that most lakes in BW in the Eastern Half - esp Gunflint and E along the border - are iced over or have some ice come MN fishing opener. The writing has been on the wall for sometime but now it seems almost certain lakes like Gunflint/Brule/SAG/Seagull have ice issues come opener. Now it comes down to Lac La Croix/ Snowbank etc. and even smaller lakes further W -- it will be very close but such cold water that walleye fishing ( to the norm) will be difficult as I would think spawn is very delayed. Currently 10F at Crane Lake. Signs of a pattern change in about 10 days-- but it will likely be too late for many--- Just my .02.
gravelroad	04/27/2022 03:06PM   I think I know why the Gunflint Lake observer has been MIA the last two mornings. Someone should probably check the highway leading south out of Grand Marais:
WhiteWolf	04/27/2022 04:43PM   April 27th, 2022 April 27th, 2013 (Bald Eagle/Gabbro) highlighted for reference) The problem with a direct comparison to 2013 is that so far April 22' has been slightly colder than April 13' by about a solid degree to 1.5F-- and that a rather decent warmup started in 13' on this date ( mid 60's in Ely with overnight lows above freezing most nights) -- the first 5 days of May of 13' were rather cold only to have 3 days in the 70's starting on the 6th. I don't see that in the next 10 days right now.
WhiteWolf	04/27/2022 04:26PM   TechnoScout: "WhiteWolf: "LOTW usually a good week to even 2 weeks earlier than most Big BW lakes for ice out on AVG---30" of ice - you do the math-- photo was taken y-day. F Book link I would say now with current forecast that most lakes in BW in the Eastern Half - esp Gunflint and E along the border - are iced over or have some ice come MN fishing opener. The writing has been on the wall for sometime but now it seems almost certain lakes like Gunflint/Brule/SAG/Seagull have ice issues come opener. Now it comes down to Lac La Croix/ Snowbank etc. and even smaller lakes further W -- it will be very close but such cold water that walleye fishing ( to the norm) will be difficult as I would think spawn is very delayed. Currently 10F at Crane Lake. Signs of a pattern change in about 10 days-- but it will likely be too late for many--- Just my .02. " I love your posts, but this one is a little cryptic for me. You saying ice out for larger lakes will be after May 14 (a date I understand to be the W opener)?" After May 14th larger lakes Eastern Half. Very close Central (Snowbank etc) and now I think very close for even lakes in the west like Lac La Croix-- smaller stained lakes with moving water (Lake One- Gabbro/Bald Eagle etc) should be OK.
Alex007	04/29/2022 08:43AM   It's starting to look promising with the temperature in my 15 day forecast. I have my fingers crossed for my may 16th permit on saganaga!
Speckled	05/02/2022 09:54AM   Rained all weekend, sun's out, temp forecast is promising. All good things to aid in speeding up the ice out.
ducks	05/09/2022 08:41AM   Below updates are from Rockwood’s site. I also saw on Bearskins Facebook page they think it is not likely East Bearskin will be ice free by opener. Forecast up there is warm this week , but cloudy. “Ice Thickness: Our best guess on Poplar Lake ice out is between May 16 and May 20 Poplar Lake ice report 05/07/2022: 22? ice, thick layer of slush on top Poplar Lake ice report 05/05/2022: 29? ice, no snow on top Poplar Lake ice report 05/01/2022: 34? ice, no snow on top”
deepwater	05/09/2022 02:33PM   Regepc: "I think it will be a last minute call to the outfitters to see what they think. I’m almost positive I’m going as long as the outfitter thinks the lakes are navigable, but I’ll let this thread know if I go and what I find when I get back! " I am going in the day before you and I think it will be fine. The fowl lakes are shallow and the royal river is, well, a river. As long as I can get to Moose lake I am good to go. With that being said I do still have a back up plan just in case. Good luck!
Spartan2	05/19/2022 10:41AM   CanoeGuru: "CanoeGuru: "We were able to go in on Tuesday 5/10 at Cross Bay and we just got out yesterday around noon. Karl Lake was impassable on Wednesday and we couldn't get through Snipe on Thursday due to ice. We stayed at the furthest campsite on Cross Bay Lake. The water was crazy high, the storms were wild, and the portages were definitely some Type 2 fun! I'm going to make a quick video of the trip and will share it in a couple days. We were the first people Andy issued a permit to at Tuscarora and didn't see anyone until the final portage yesterday 5/13 around noon. I hope they made it okay. The water was definitely picking up speed! " I just made a quick little video of what it looked like out there. https://youtu.be/lgkH-1hG-O4" Just watched your video and I am amazed. We have stayed at that site at Cross Bay Lake several times. but surely cannot recognize any of the portages! You are very brave, and while it was interesting to see this, I don't envy you going this early. Would not be my cup of tea. One question: We only ever took one trip in May (our last trip, actually) and we nearly froze in our wool shirts, used our rain gear for an extra layer. How did you do this with icy lakes in shorts, short sleeves, etc.? You must be VERY warm-blooded people or it was warmer than it looked! :-) Looks like a tough little dog, too! Thanks for sharing this.
cmanimal	04/04/2022 12:17PM   For the southern MN question, Ice has been out in the Winona area for close to 2 weeks. Open water a little over a month.
Pinetree	05/06/2022 05:21PM   It's hot in Minnesota today. Shorts weather and mosquitoes are out.
airmorse	05/06/2022 04:47PM   So that's what blue sky's look like. Haven't seen the sun in weeks.
gravelroad	05/06/2022 06:13PM   Pinetree: "It's hot in Minnesota today. Shorts weather and mosquitoes are out." "It depends on what your definition of 'Minnesota' is." ;-)
Pinetree	05/06/2022 08:55PM   North Shore is much cooler than inland. The next ten days have many days 6-15 degrees above normal for Ely Ely heat wave
Koonie	05/09/2022 07:08PM   KarlBAndersen1: "MikeinMpls: "wanderingfromkansas: "ducks: 6- From the Rockwood website……. Poplar Lake ice report 04/28/2022: over 33? ice, 2? inches of snow on top" They also predict Poplar ice out at May 16-20. I’d feel bad for those whose permits get messed up, but I’d be thrilled with a May 20 ice out!" I've got a May 22 permit for Lizz Lake. This will be a close call! Mike" My permit is the 20th. I think I'll stay home." I'm headed in 5/19 from Rockwood, Poplar WILL be clear!
Regepc	05/09/2022 08:20AM   I’m heading out from North Fowl lake on May 13th. Planning on doing the big loop through mountain, down into Clearwater/caribou and Pine. What are my chances of not having to reschedule do you think?
deepwater	05/09/2022 02:47PM   High winds today with highs in the 60's. High winds tomorrow, sunny and highs in the 70's. Same for Wednesday. I really don't think most of the lake ice can handle that. I bet most ice will go out Thursday, Friday or Saturday. I am optimistic.
Fishman53	05/09/2022 11:05AM   Regepc: "I’m heading out from North Fowl lake on May 13th. Planning on doing the big loop through mountain, down into Clearwater/caribou and Pine. What are my chances of not having to reschedule do you think?" Am interested to learn of your decision. Plan to be in some of that same area May 26, so should be ice free, but curious what you learn. Thanks
Regepc	05/09/2022 12:10PM   I think it will be a last minute call to the outfitters to see what they think. I’m almost positive I’m going as long as the outfitter thinks the lakes are navigable, but I’ll let this thread know if I go and what I find when I get back!
Regepc	05/09/2022 06:14PM   Thanks! Same with me - as long as a can make it to moose I’m good. Sounds like we’ll be neighbors! Don’t worry, I’m heading out solo and don’t make a peep. Also, I heard that while the lakes might be ok, a bigger question is the roads to the EP. A few days ago my outfitter heard some people try to get out that but had to turn around because there was either 2ft of snow or just muck. Best of luck to both of us!
JohnGalt	05/09/2022 06:55PM   Regepc: "Thanks! Same with me - as long as a can make it to moose I’m good. Sounds like we’ll be neighbors! Don’t worry, I’m heading out solo and don’t make a peep. Also, I heard that while the lakes might be ok, a bigger question is the roads to the EP. A few days ago my outfitter heard some people try to get out that but had to turn around because there was either 2ft of snow or just muck. Best of luck to both of us!" Moose Lake EP earlier today. Spoke with my outfitter today & I'll be booking a permit tomorrow for a Wed entry.
TacoOverland	05/09/2022 07:18PM   Koonie: "KarlBAndersen1: "MikeinMpls: "wanderingfromkansas: "ducks: 6- From the Rockwood website……. Poplar Lake ice report 04/28/2022: over 33? ice, 2? inches of snow on top" They also predict Poplar ice out at May 16-20. I’d feel bad for those whose permits get messed up, but I’d be thrilled with a May 20 ice out!" I've got a May 22 permit for Lizz Lake. This will be a close call! Mike" My permit is the 20th. I think I'll stay home." I'm headed in 5/19 from Rockwood, Poplar WILL be clear! " Heading in for two weeks starting the 14th solo starting cross bay 50 doing frost , louse, phoebe rivers. Can’t wait.
KungPowKing	05/09/2022 08:23PM   Does anyone know what the water temps are right now? I'm hoping that pike fishing will be good the first week of June. We're entering at Seagull and are going Ogish to Lil Sag.
gfd1961	05/09/2022 09:03PM   I presume this includes Knife in the eastern? Set to go in on the 14th from Moose. Moose breaking up nicely but your comment about the bigger lakes being a week or even two behind concerns me!?!?
Fishman53	05/10/2022 05:03PM   Clearwater Facebook Post:
gravelroad	05/10/2022 04:18PM   I am very happy that I don't have any money riding on my previous May 18 estimate for Seagull. Got tow? :-)
TacoOverland	05/10/2022 04:48PM   Gunflint Lake Webcam
ducks	05/10/2022 07:52PM   Great progress in Rockwood’s update today compared to 3 days ago. Ice Thickness: Our best guess on Poplar Lake ice out is between May 16 and May 18 Poplar Lake ice report 05/10/2022: 11? ice with 3? slush Poplar Lake ice report 05/07/2022: 22? ice, thick layer of slush on top
TuscaroraBorealis	05/10/2022 09:08PM   This was as far as I could get on Isabella (from Isabella river) this past Sunday afternoon. Shagawa (Ely) went out today.
YetiJedi	05/10/2022 10:44PM   ducks: "Great progress in Rockwood’s update today competed to 3 days ago. Ice Thickness: Our best guess on Poplar Lake ice out is between May 16 and May 18 Poplar Lake ice report 05/10/2022: 11? ice with 3? slush Poplar Lake ice report 05/07/2022: 22? ice, thick layer of slush on top" :) :) :) Hope to see you there soon, Ducks!
CanoeGuru	06/12/2022 07:54PM   Spartan2: "CanoeGuru: "CanoeGuru: "We were able to go in on Tuesday 5/10 at Cross Bay and we just got out yesterday around noon. Karl Lake was impassable on Wednesday and we couldn't get through Snipe on Thursday due to ice. We stayed at the furthest campsite on Cross Bay Lake. The water was crazy high, the storms were wild, and the portages were definitely some Type 2 fun! I'm going to make a quick video of the trip and will share it in a couple days. We were the first people Andy issued a permit to at Tuscarora and didn't see anyone until the final portage yesterday 5/13 around noon. I hope they made it okay. The water was definitely picking up speed! " I just made a quick little video of what it looked like out there. https://youtu.be/lgkH-1hG-O4" Just watched your video and I am amazed. We have stayed at that site at Cross Bay Lake several times. but surely cannot recognize any of the portages! You are very brave, and while it was interesting to see this, I don't envy you going this early. Would not be my cup of tea. One question: We only ever took one trip in May (our last trip, actually) and we nearly froze in our wool shirts, used our rain gear for an extra layer. How did you do this with icy lakes in shorts, short sleeves, etc.? You must be VERY warm-blooded people or it was warmer than it looked! :-) Looks like a tough little dog, too! Thanks for sharing this. " It was a weird combination of weather, that's for sure! Our first day in it got into the mid to high 70s-- we were actually going to jump in the water when we arrived at our site because our muck boots made us too warm. The combination of muck boots and seal skinz socks 100% made our trip. Given the flooded portages and muddy conditions otherwise, keeping our feet warm and dry was imperative. On our way out we saw some people sporting old running shoes and they didn't look too happy. Day two we had a cloudless sky and high 60s temps, combined with paddling & portaging, we stayed very comfortable in shorts/short sleeves. The weather began to turn in the afternoon of day two and all of day 3, so we layered clothing and hung out in our rain suits. To keep warm at night we put a down quilt under our sleeping bags, we doubled up 2 fair-weather sleeping bags with a sleeping pad, and wore most of our clothes & a stocking hat. The lows were predicted to be in the high 30s/low 40s. We kept and eye on the forecast leading up to the trip. Had the lows been predicted to be closer to freezing, we probably wouldn't have gone. I'd also say we're pretty warm blooded. We hail from Central WI and the warm temps in the BWCA was the warmest we'd been after a long winter.
airmorse	05/16/2022 06:42PM   I spoke to VNO 6 days ago and they said it was still locked up. But that was 6 days ago. Lots have changed I'm sure.
IowaGuy	03/29/2022 06:33PM   WhiteWolf: "The coldest BW trip I ever did (not so much actual temps- but just that wet penetrating cold) including dozens of winter camping trips is no doubt May of 2008. " We did that same route in mid-May 2008, with a side trip to Kekekabic. Much of Kek was covered in a thin sheet of ice when we arrived, but we were able to make it to the big island campsite in the evening in the southernmost cove of the lake. Overnight the ice sheet from the main lake blew into our cove and we couldn't launch the canoe until the ice shifted/melted later in the day! The evening we arrived at Kek is the only time I have ever seen lake trout feeding on the surface, it was amazing!
Pinetree	03/23/2022 01:38PM   tumblehome: "North of Duluth we got a few inches of snow last night. Cold returns into the weekend and into next week so whatever spring thaw we had going on is done for the next week. Winter is still here. I’ll write this again next week but… in 2012 I was camping in the BWCA on April 1st. That was messed up. 70’s and 80’s across the state in March that year. Tom" 2012 I was lake trout fishing the last couple days of March up the Gunflint from a canoe.
santacruz	03/23/2022 10:39AM   Early to mid March, I took a spin on the lake last year on March 16th in the prism, ice out has always fascinated me on how even without the conditions we Think have to be there for ice out, it happens, we had a colder winter and I drilled thru more ice than last year, the way it looks it will be about a week later.
HighnDry	03/30/2022 09:05PM   No worries, Linden. You were owed :) Hope you catch some fish on the lures. Tight lines!
Banksiana	03/23/2022 05:20PM   I took a Quetico trek in 12 that began 4/7. Unfortunately this is what my last Canadian portage looked like.
WhiteWolf	03/24/2022 12:53PM   The coldest BW trip I ever did (not so much actual temps- but just that wet penetrating cold) including dozens of winter camping trips is no doubt May of 2008. My group of 4 entered Lake One on the Friday before opener-- on the idea of getting to Thomas in one day. Late start, some technical issues but they all were a good thing. Ended up camping Friday night mid lake on Insula just N of the current burn line. Sat we headed N through the Kiana portages and into Thomas with a cloudy, much cooler conditions. Once on Thomas we noted small ice flows that were easily avoided ,but in these ice flows were debris from what was obviously on the ice surface from the past 6 months or so. It was obvious that lake ice out in Thomas had literally just happened in the past few days and ( I forget to mention this, but the Friday/Friday night on the way was very nice, likely mid to upper 60's) We camped on the most center island on Thomas for 3-4 nights. It was brutally cold- again not in absolute temps (high 20's to low 30F) but the real feel after 3-4 nights was enough for myself to call it the coldest trip I've ever been on. We got 2-3" of snow I believe on Sunday night. The wetness /cold lingered with any wind advecting in basically surface water temps with more (if possible) cold moisture. Fires helped - until you got away several yards. Again - been on many BW trips - winter and all, but this was by far the worst with all the cold water around.
Banksiana	03/24/2022 07:08PM   That April 2012 trip I got well over a foot on my planned last night on Argo. Lots of wind from the north followed the storm and the next day stayed in the twenties. Scary crossing of Crooked and a cold (below 10 degrees) camp on Wagosh. Thanks be to Exped Downmat I was warm.
Banksiana	03/26/2022 09:59AM   Snow forecast in that time frame is pretty much a fantasy from my experience. Even a 24 hour forecast is hard when temps are right on the edge of freezing.
Pinetree	03/26/2022 10:29AM   Banksiana: "Snow forecast in that time frame is pretty much a fantasy from my experience. Even a 24 hour forecast is hard when temps are right on the edge of freezing." True, I agree but will say they are getting so much better than the past in predicting. It's amazing how they put everything into the data box and come up with such long range predictions.
Stumpy	03/26/2022 12:50PM   I'm going with a later guess. Shagawa May 5, at Noon. In Northern IL, we had 9 full weeks of good ice this year, and it's snowing right now.
JimmyJustice	03/28/2022 01:10PM   Ice here in Lakeville is nearly pulling away from shore. Another couple of days and there will be open water to allow for ice to move and break up.
WhiteWolf	03/28/2022 02:50PM   It was -13F this AM at Crane Lake and near that for many other locations in N.MN. Not records. But very cold for the date on top of a very cold winter since late DEC. (top 10 coldest for most) With the upcoming winter storm watch ( see below) and near likely of another 6" plus of snow- and pattern in general for the Arrowhead - I would not want an early (May 1st to to May 7th) permit for deep lakes in the East -- permits on the whole for the BW past this is too hard to tell at this writing- but things are looking as of this writing for a late ice out region wide--esp Central/East BDUB- URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Duluth MN 324 AM CDT Mon Mar 28 2022 MNZ012-020-021-282200- /O.NEW.KDLH.WS.A.0006.220330T0000Z-220401T0000Z/ Northern Cook and Lake-Southern Lake-Southern Cook- Including the cities of Isabella, Two Harbors, Silver Bay, and Grand Marais 324 AM CDT Mon Mar 28 2022 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 10 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph. * WHERE...Northern Cook and Lake, Southern Lake and Southern Cook Counties. This includes the Tribal Lands of the Grand Portage Reservation. * WHEN...From Tuesday evening through Thursday evening. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.
WhiteWolf	03/28/2022 04:13PM   Actual snowfall may be down in this forecast - but precip is still the same. Good Thing for the drought, many more snow/rain events in the future. Winter Storm Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Duluth MN 351 PM CDT Mon Mar 28 2022 MNZ012-020-021-290900- /O.CON.KDLH.WS.A.0006.220330T0000Z-220401T0000Z/ Northern Cook and Lake-Southern Lake-Southern Cook- Including the cities of Isabella, Two Harbors, Silver Bay, and Grand Marais 351 PM CDT Mon Mar 28 2022 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 8 inches and ice accumulations of a light glaze possible. Locally higher snowfall amounts are possible. Winds could gust to 40 mph Tuesday night. * WHERE...Northern Cook and Lake, Southern Cook and Southern Lake Counties. This includes the Tribal Lands of the Grand Portage Reservation. * WHEN...From Tuesday evening through Thursday evening. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. && $$ For more information from the National Weather Service visit http://weather.gov/Duluth
YetiJedi	03/28/2022 06:17PM   Reminds me of this weather prediction! WhiteWolf: "It was -13F this AM at Crane Lake and near that for many other locations in N.MN. Not records. But very cold for the date on top of a very cold winter since late DEC. (top 10 coldest for most) With the upcoming winter storm watch ( see below) and near likely of another 6" plus of snow- and pattern in general for the Arrowhead - I would not want an early (May 1st to to May 7th) permit for deep lakes in the East -- permits on the whole for the BW past this is too hard to tell at this writing- but things are looking as of this writing for a late ice out region wide--esp Central/East BDUB- URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Duluth MN 324 AM CDT Mon Mar 28 2022 MNZ012-020-021-282200- /O.NEW.KDLH.WS.A.0006.220330T0000Z-220401T0000Z/ Northern Cook and Lake-Southern Lake-Southern Cook- Including the cities of Isabella, Two Harbors, Silver Bay, and Grand Marais 324 AM CDT Mon Mar 28 2022 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 10 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph. * WHERE...Northern Cook and Lake, Southern Lake and Southern Cook Counties. This includes the Tribal Lands of the Grand Portage Reservation. * WHEN...From Tuesday evening through Thursday evening. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.
LindenTree	03/30/2022 04:23PM   LindenTree: "I won the Ice Out contest on this website by someone who I can't remember for an Ely area lake, maybe Burntside two to three years ago. I was promised some Bungie Dealie Bobs for my correct guess. We exchanged info and delivery was promised, never heard another thing from the person. Lesson, be careful what you guess on." Terry/highndry, Thank you so much for sending me the Bungie Dealie Bobs. That was totally unexpected. Those were also some nice lures you tied and threw in for interest. Sincerely, Linden
YetiJedi	03/30/2022 06:59PM   LindenTree: "LindenTree: "I won the Ice Out contest on this website by someone who I can't remember for an Ely area lake, maybe Burntside two to three years ago. I was promised some Bungie Dealie Bobs for my correct guess. We exchanged info and delivery was promised, never heard another thing from the person. Lesson, be careful what you guess on." Terry/highndry, Thank you so much for sending me the Bungie Dealie Bobs. That was totally unexpected. Those were also some nice lures you tied and threw in for interest. Sincerely, Linden" Classy and kind move by Highndry/Terry. Well played and great to see.
LindenTree	03/31/2022 09:13AM   HighnDry: "No worries, Linden. You were owed :) Hope you catch some fish on the lures. Tight lines!" Thanks for the hand written letter Terry/HnD, and it was in "cursive". I didn't think anyone wrote in cursive anymore, I know I would struggle to bring that back out of the cobwebs of my memory.
RLJ	03/31/2022 11:23AM   LindenTree: "HighnDry: "No worries, Linden. You were owed :) Hope you catch some fish on the lures. Tight lines!" Thanks for the hand written letter Terry/HnD, and it was in "cursive". I didn't think anyone wrote in cursive anymore, I know I would struggle to bring that back out of the cobwebs of my memory." Probably for another thread, but interesting you mentioned the "cursive" letter you received. Makes your correspondence that much more personal. Small things we seem to be lacking these days.
Speckled	04/04/2022 09:14AM   Haven't noticed this in years past, but when I check the MN DNR ice out page. It shows nothing is out yet. When I check Modis satellite view, it sure looks like the lakes in southern MN are ice free. I check the webcam at Maynards in Excelsior and can see the ice is nearly/ready to go out there as well. There seems to be a disconnect. Perhaps the MN DNR page isn't being updated timely? Can anyone confirm if the ice is out in southern MN?
Kendis	04/04/2022 09:29AM   Speckled: "Haven't noticed this in years past, but when I check the MN DNR ice out page. It shows nothing is out yet. When I check Modis satellite view, it sure looks like the lakes in southern MN are ice free. I check the webcam at Maynards in Excelsior and can see the ice is nearly/ready to go out there as well. There seems to be a disconnect. Perhaps the MN DNR page isn't being updated timely? Can anyone confirm if the ice is out in southern MN?" The MN DNR ice out page is based on volunteer information. Perhaps no one has contacted the DNR about ice out yet this year. I looked at aerial photos from April 1 (no joke here) and lakes near Duluth are still snow covered while lakes in southern MN are clear of snow and seem to have the ice melting.
Speckled	04/04/2022 01:35PM   The first lake just showed up on the MN DNR ice out map. Spoon Lake in St. Paul, with a date of 04/02/22. Comparing Spoon Lake historical data in relation to Fall Lake historical data. I see the following; 7 years worth of data available on Spoon. Avg # of days after Spoon Lake clears for Fall Lake to clear = 24 Shortest span was 2018 - Fall Lake cleared 7 days after Spoon. Longest span was 2020 - Fall Lake cleared 39 days after Spoon. Waking up to Snowfall this morning in the Knife River Valley, with nearly 2 feet still on the ground and with more snowfall in the forecast...I think we're looking at pushing closer to that 39 day mark.
WhiteWolf	04/05/2022 04:41PM   Another Winter Storm equals almost a certainty of late ice out coupled with the graphic below for Arrowhead and most of N.MN- URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Duluth MN 255 PM CDT Tue Apr 5 2022 MNZ012-020-021-060800- /O.CON.KDLH.WS.W.0007.220406T0000Z-220408T1200Z/ Northern Cook and Lake-Southern Lake-Southern Cook- Including the cities of Isabella, Two Harbors, Silver Bay, and Grand Marais 255 PM CDT Tue Apr 5 2022 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT FRIDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches for lower elevations near Lake Superior, and 10 to 15 inches with a few locations near 18 inches in the higher terrain of the North Shore. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph tonight. * WHERE...Northern Cook and Lake, Southern Cook and Southern Lake Counties. This includes the Tribal Lands of the Grand Portage Reservation. * WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Friday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Patchy blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.
tumblehome	04/05/2022 06:45PM   And according to the Nat’l weather service, local snow amounts in the higher terrain of the arrowhead near the big lake could see up to 18” off this storm.
Pinetree	04/30/2022 01:11PM   Things are going to start speeding up fast with much warmer temps and may low above freezing.
gravelroad	04/07/2022 09:46PM   The flogging (of snow reports) will continue until morale improves. ;-)
gravelroad	04/08/2022 05:59AM   WhiteWolf: " Lakers this year in laker lakes should be caught shallow well into late May/ even early June if not later as trends go. Enjoy the weather- it's the only weather you got. " Hammered them along the shore of Mountain Lake over a memorable Memorial Day weekend (traditional May 30 before the change) - brought some home to the Twin Cities packed in snow we gathered from under the trees.
airmorse	04/08/2022 09:51AM   My June 12th entry is looking pretty good then.
Banksiana	04/08/2022 01:38PM   On the bright side the amount of snow on the lakes in the Ely area is not that significant, a matter of inches for the most part. Once the ice is exposed to the sun things start happening pretty quick.
gravelroad	04/17/2022 09:21PM   Mocha: "My paddle partner, Bonnie, sent me this photo . It's the gunflint trail on Friday April 15. " Looks a lot like I-35 from Moose Lake northward in the last hour (minus the banks) …
Kendis	04/18/2022 11:23AM   The MN DNR ice out website tracks historical data for the nearby Fall Lake. The latest recorded ice out date for Fall Lake is May 19. I think you'll be fine, although the water temperatures may be quite cold.
Pinetree	04/18/2022 11:27AM   The usual ice out on Brainerd lakes is around April 20th. This year lakes still froze up to shore.
WhiteWolf	04/18/2022 12:36PM   1950 was the latest ever (and would be for those "missing") data - for ice out in the last 150 years or so for other lakes. Moose is nearly to be 99% ice free by May 15th. You will have no issues. But there will be records set this year for late ice out that dont have 1950/1936 in the mix- almost certain. This should beat even 1996 , though it will be close.
gravelroad	04/19/2022 02:38PM   WhiteWolf: "Edit to the above with some non airport data *** EDIT *** Embarrass,MN was -14F on 4/20 and 4/21 2013. Embarrass is also where it was -60F in early Feb,1996 -- the coldest temp ever recorded in MN. Gunflint Lake recorded -9F and -8F on the same dates in 2013. Also -2F 7miles NW of Two Harbors on 4/20/2013 -- a member of this site I believe. " Sigh. My Embarrass-based family on my mother's side is gonna hate me for this, but I gotta correct the record. That -60 was officially recorded at nearby Tower, not Embarrass, to the towering and everlasting embarrassment of the latter: Tower, Embarrass Still Debating Which Was Colder in 1996
SpokaneFlyer	04/19/2022 04:46PM   For ice out on Ely side I'm thinking May 25-27. For Gunflint side: June 2-5
3Ball	04/21/2022 11:05PM   I might pack my nordic skis for the walleye opener in Ely.
Speckled	04/22/2022 08:00AM   Another single point of reference. I've got pics on FB of our lake at the cabin. Our cabin is on a lake in the Superior National Forest between Two Harbors and Ely. I have a pic from this day 2018 and the ice was still on, but was showing some signs of slush and standing water under the snow. Ice went out on our lake that year on May 5th. Looking at the DNR ice out map, Fall Lake went out on May 4th and Moose Lake on May 7th. Our lake isn't showing any signs of melt yet. I think it's maybe a few days to a week behind. I would guess Ice out in the Ely area lakes will happen sometime during the week before fishing opener. It'll be close for sure.
wuuin	04/22/2022 10:42AM   Sawbill had an update yesterday: measured at least 42? from the bottom of the ice to the top of the snow, which is about all our auger could handle and just longer than our official measuring stick. The top 20? was mostly comprised of snow and frozen slush. Under the main hole there was lots of variation in ice. One side we couldn’t feel the bottom edge of the ice and the other side seemed to taper off closer to the 42? mark.
Twins87	04/22/2022 10:33AM   From Sawbill this morning: Sawbill Canoe Outfitters Ice update! The bad news is, there's still 42" of ice on Sawbill. The good news is there's rain in the forecast! We're supposed to get rain today and tomorrow, and we'll update how that affects the ice later this weekend . In the meantime, we'll continue to be grateful for the precipitation and plan for paddling season. #bwca #welcometowilderness Andy at Tusc will likely update their snow and ice cover by end of the rainy weekend as well. He posts videos regularly on their Facebook page. We stayed at Poplar Haus mid-trail for the long Easter weekend and it felt like mid-January. Snowed a lot while we were there. It was still full-on winter on the Gunflint Trail. Snowing as we left on Monday morning.
Pinetree	04/26/2022 02:23PM   Brainerd lakes are just starting to go out. Usually, ice-free around April 20th. Ice getting thin and thinking around May 2-4th. About two weeks behind normal.
wxce1260	04/27/2022 09:34PM   Votes for which one(s) will set new records this year? Gunflint Latest ice out date: June 3, 1936 Period of record: 1936 to 2020 Sea Gull Latest ice out date: May 18, 2014 Period of record: 1991 to 2021 Fall Latest ice out date: May 19, 1950 Period of record: 1935 to 2021 Sawbill Latest ice out date: May 15, 2014 Period of record: 1990 to 2018 Saganaga Latest ice out date: May 19, 2014 Period of record: 1988 to 2021 Garden Latest ice out date: May 7, 2018 Period of record: 1999 to 2020 Burntside Latest ice out date: May 22, 1950 Period of record: 1940 to 2017
Pinetree	04/27/2022 10:06PM   Looks like most Brainerd lakes will be open about 10-12 days late. many lakes will be ice-free in about 2-3 days. Normal ice out around April 20th. Mille lacs will be interesting tho, maybe around May 7th if we're lucky.
gravelroad	04/28/2022 06:45AM   “East side, west side, all around B-Dub” I don’t think many folks will be singing when they see this update from yesterday: #shorts Ely area and BWCA ice conditions update 4/27/22
tobiedog	04/28/2022 10:08AM   What's the relationship of ice out date to snow in the woods? The snow was very deep this winter and is not melting quickly...
Speckled	04/28/2022 10:00AM   Less than 2 feet of ice...10ish days to ice out, 14 max.
Alex007	04/29/2022 10:27AM   I will definitely let you know!
KungPowKing	04/29/2022 10:16AM   Hey Alex, My group is planning to get on Seagull May 30th. Would you mind letting me know how it goes? LOL
wanderingfromkansas	04/29/2022 07:09PM   Are you staying awhile, Mike? Mine is just a couple days later.
ducks	04/29/2022 04:52PM   The 14 day forecast up there looks much more promising for melting snow and ice than what it’s been. Hopefully it’s enough. From the Rockwood website……. Poplar Lake ice report 04/28/2022: over 33? ice, 2? inches of snow on top
MikeinMpls	04/29/2022 05:47PM   wanderingfromkansas: "ducks: 6- From the Rockwood website……. Poplar Lake ice report 04/28/2022: over 33? ice, 2? inches of snow on top" They also predict Poplar ice out at May 16-20. I’d feel bad for those whose permits get messed up, but I’d be thrilled with a May 20 ice out!" I've got a May 22 permit for Lizz Lake. This will be a close call! Mike
wanderingfromkansas	04/29/2022 05:38PM   ducks: 6- From the Rockwood website……. Poplar Lake ice report 04/28/2022: over 33? ice, 2? inches of snow on top" They also predict Poplar ice out at May 16-20. I’d feel bad for those whose permits get messed up, but I’d be thrilled with a May 20 ice out!
moray	04/29/2022 06:03PM   MikeinMpls: "wanderingfromkansas: "ducks: 6- From the Rockwood website……. Poplar Lake ice report 04/28/2022: over 33? ice, 2? inches of snow on top" They also predict Poplar ice out at May 16-20. I’d feel bad for those whose permits get messed up, but I’d be thrilled with a May 20 ice out!" I've got a May 22 permit for Lizz Lake. This will be a close call! My brother and I also have a 5/22 permit for Lizz. Our trip is centered around smallmouth fishing. Late ice out does not make fishing look to good. Probably won’t have to worry about bugs. Mike"
deepwater	05/01/2022 11:20AM   Hard to say, but I would always plan for some ice/snow during a mid May trip. I've walked through snow on multiple occasions as well as paddled through ice.
dschult2	04/30/2022 10:29PM   I've got a May 13th permit for Sawbill and I'm still optimistic I'll be fine. In fact I think I might get lucky with the ice going out a day or 2 prior. Nothing like paddling right after the ice goes out.
ICButts9	05/01/2022 10:42AM   Greetings fellow BW lovers. We're entering Lake One on 5/17 (God willing), and I'm wondering what we might expect on portage trails as we head east then north on our journey. I'm hoping we won't be portaging in snow or a soupy mess from the melt?
Pinetree	04/30/2022 11:18PM   dschult2: "I've got a May 13th permit for Sawbill and I'm still optimistic I'll be fine. In fact I think I might get lucky with the ice going out a day or 2 prior. Nothing like paddling right after the ice goes out." You will be fine. Gunflint lake? Maybe?
Tuscarora Outfitters	05/01/2022 12:46PM   Here's what May 1st looks like at the end of the Gunflint Trail. May 1st Ice. Andy
Twins87	05/01/2022 05:15PM   Tuscarora Outfitters: "Here's what May 1st looks like at the end of the Gunflint Trail. May 1st Ice. Andy" Thanks for the update. Looks like water levels are up and that’s nice to see. Anxious for our mid-June trip through Cross Bay. And glad that we decided to cancel our May Big Sag permit.
HighnDry	05/08/2022 09:41AM   Is that from Vosburgh's cabins? That's a good view over the lower part of the lake.
Tuscarora Outfitters	05/08/2022 10:59AM   Current conditions at the end of the Gunflint Trail. May 8th Update. Andy
Jaywalker	05/08/2022 08:33AM   First major cracks all the way across Moose Lake appeared overnight. Ice is looking pretty black to me. With todays wind, I think we’ll see a lot of breaking up today and tomorrow.
TacoOverland	05/08/2022 03:15PM   Tuscarora Outfitters: "Current conditions at the end of the Gunflint Trail. May 8th Update. Andy" Thoughts on a May 14th Cross Bay entry headed to Frost lake?
tumblehome	05/02/2022 10:37AM   A month ago I posted that the earliest I thought the ice would go out would be May 6. I am now saying May 13th. Based on the Tuscarora video Andy posted, it's gonna take many days for that ice to free up. Yes we have some warmer air coming but still too much ice! Laker lakes like Gunflint, Alton,Kek, even later. tom
gravelroad	05/02/2022 01:11PM   Tuscarora Outfitters: "Here's what May 1st looks like at the end of the Gunflint Trail. May 1st Ice. Andy" Okay, I'm ready to go out on a limb – sometime in May for Seagull. :-) All right: May 18. No idea about Sag. And not June. You folks who fear the worst probably don't know about the winter that preceded Justine Kerfoot's notorious amble across Gunflint on June 1, 1936: 1936 North American Cold Wave
gfd1961	05/02/2022 09:40PM   Scheduled for entry on Moose and up to Knife on May 14. I see the Moose webcam but does that corelate to Knife very well? Just a Kansas boy who has made many summer trips and trying my first spring trip. May have picked the wrong year?
WhiteWolf	05/02/2022 02:28PM   And to think Feb 36' was followed only 5 months later by one of greatest heat waves in recorded history.
gravelroad	05/02/2022 07:48PM   WhiteWolf: "And to think Feb 36' was followed only 5 months later by one of greatest heat waves in recorded history. " My mother also remembered that. No A/C in the upper story of an Embarrass farmhouse - they fled to Birch Lake when they could get there.
WhiteWolf	05/03/2022 03:43AM   gfd1961: "Scheduled for entry on Moose and up to Knife on May 14. I see the Moose webcam but does that corelate to Knife very well? Just a Kansas boy who has made many summer trips and trying my first spring trip. May have picked the wrong year?" my .02 is Knife is 2-4 days later than Moose for Ice out being Knife is deeper and bigger- (and more clear water= less insolation and slightly further colder( later) climate wise. ). Comes down to insolation (left over snow/ice in the vicinity,) which I think Knife would have on avg. Now getting to Knife from that direction you might see some open water after the last portage-- but on AVG, getting to Thunder Point etc might be delayed by 2-4 days compared to Moose.
gravelroad	05/03/2022 06:39AM   gravelroad: "WhiteWolf: "And to think Feb 36' was followed only 5 months later by one of greatest heat waves in recorded history. " My mom remembered that. No A/C in the upper story of an Embarrass farmhouse - they fled to Birch Lake when they could get there."
Speckled	05/03/2022 07:46AM   Yesterday Evening - Our cabin lake half way between Ely and Two Harbors. No sign of the ice breaking away from the shore. Top layer was slushy. I didn't have an auger with to check depth, but hit it with a spud bar. There's alot of ice out there yet. Yard is still completely covered in snow as well.
deepwater	05/03/2022 08:05AM   Speckled: "Yesterday Evening - Our cabin lake half way between Ely and Two Harbors. No sign of the ice breaking away from the shore. Top layer was slushy. I didn't have an auger with to check depth, but hit it with a spud bar. There's alot of ice out there yet. Yard is still completely covered in snow as well. " The 10 day forecast is extremely promising. I am hopeful at least. Highs in the 60's with the possibility of rain. Here is an interesting write up on the science of lake ice melt/thaw. Maybe you've already seen it before. Science of lake ice melt
Regepc	05/13/2022 06:57PM   Regepc: "Just made it to grand Marais after leaving at 3am this morning. Buzz at the holiday gas station says they are closing 61 at cascade river due to flash flood concerns. I made it just in time! Heading up to north fowl, wish me luck!" Well that was a close call! While looking for the portage from little John into royal river I got sucked in to the rapids. Canoe overturned, lost all my gear and the canoe is jammed under a tree. I am incredibly lucky to be alive. Luckily I had my keys and phone connected to a water proof bag and was able to salvage them and walk back to my car (that was NOT easy!) But now there is a canoe wedged under a tree in the rapids and all my gear is gone. I contacted cook county sheriff to let them know I’m ok and that all that gear belongs to me and not someone missing. If you see the gear it’s a maroon backpacking bag and a blue brr bag from wise owl. Be careful out there! I’m in a hotel in grand marais for the night nursing my wounds and thanking god - and I am not even religious.
Regepc	05/13/2022 08:00PM   ducks: "Regepc: "Regepc: "Just made it to grand Marais after leaving at 3am this morning. Buzz at the holiday gas station says they are closing 61 at cascade river due to flash flood concerns. I made it just in time! Heading up to north fowl, wish me luck!" Well that was a close call! While looking for the portage from little John into royal river I got sucked in to the rapids. Canoe overturned, lost all my gear and the canoe is jammed under a tree. I am incredibly lucky to be alive. Luckily I had my keys and phone connected to a water proof bag and was able to salvage them and walk back to my car (that was NOT easy!) But now there is a canoe wedged under a tree in the rapids and all my gear is gone. I contacted cook county sheriff to let them know I’m ok and that all that gear belongs to me and not someone missing. If you see the gear it’s a maroon backpacking bag and a blue brr bag from wise owl. Be careful out there! I’m in a hotel in grand marais for the night nursing my wounds and thanking god - and I am not even religious. " Glad you made it out safely. Wow! Lots of pictures of extremely high water up there. East Bearskin lake levels are all the way up to the staff housing building. Forrest roads are flooded and washed out. Rivers must be extremely dangerous right now. Enjoy the warm bed and count those blessings. Again. So glad to hear you made it out. " Thank you! I appreciate that!
wxce1260	05/12/2022 02:47PM   TuscaroraBorealis: " This was as far as I could get on Isabella (from Isabella river) this past Sunday afternoon. Shagawa (Ely) went out today." If you don't mind me asking--that's a swell looking boat, what kind is it?
TuscaroraBorealis	05/13/2022 06:18AM   wxce1260: "TuscaroraBorealis: " This was as far as I could get on Isabella (from Isabella river) this past Sunday afternoon. Shagawa (Ely) went out today." If you don't mind me asking--that's a swell looking boat, what kind is it?" Bell - Seliga tripper
Regepc	05/13/2022 09:08AM   Just made it to grand Marais after leaving at 3am this morning. Buzz at the holiday gas station says they are closing 61 at cascade river due to flash flood concerns. I made it just in time! Heading up to north fowl, wish me luck!
TacoOverland	05/13/2022 06:41PM   Regepc: "Just made it to grand Marais after leaving at 3am this morning. Buzz at the holiday gas station says they are closing 61 at cascade river due to flash flood concerns. I made it just in time! Heading up to north fowl, wish me luck!" Crossed Cascade River 3pm today so was still open. Water barley getting under bridge.
ducks	05/13/2022 07:14PM   Regepc: "Regepc: "Just made it to grand Marais after leaving at 3am this morning. Buzz at the holiday gas station says they are closing 61 at cascade river due to flash flood concerns. I made it just in time! Heading up to north fowl, wish me luck!" Well that was a close call! While looking for the portage from little John into royal river I got sucked in to the rapids. Canoe overturned, lost all my gear and the canoe is jammed under a tree. I am incredibly lucky to be alive. Luckily I had my keys and phone connected to a water proof bag and was able to salvage them and walk back to my car (that was NOT easy!) But now there is a canoe wedged under a tree in the rapids and all my gear is gone. I contacted cook county sheriff to let them know I’m ok and that all that gear belongs to me and not someone missing. If you see the gear it’s a maroon backpacking bag and a blue brr bag from wise owl. Be careful out there! I’m in a hotel in grand marais for the night nursing my wounds and thanking god - and I am not even religious. " Glad you made it out safely. Wow! Lots of pictures of extremely high water up there. East Bearskin lake levels are all the way up to the staff housing building. Forrest roads are flooded and washed out. Rivers must be extremely dangerous right now. Enjoy the warm bed and count those blessings. Again. So glad to hear you made it out.
ducks	05/13/2022 07:19PM   Below is Rockwood’s update tonight. They have posted in the past that when the ice first goes out on Poplar every year that ice piles up in the bay to the Lizz portage and it take a couple of more days to get to the Lizz portage. Poplar Lake ice report 05/13/2022: good news! Ice is breaking up, large sections still floating. Saturday or Sunday ice-out, with entry into Lizz EP Monday. Poplar Lake ice report 05/10/2022: 11? ice with 3? slush Poplar Lake ice report 05/07/2022: 22? ice, thick layer of slush on top
Northwoodsman	05/13/2022 09:17PM   Dang Regepc glad you are okay. It sounds like your quick actions and clear thinking may have saved your life. Late ice out plus heavy rains have really made for unsafe conditions. Early season paddlers just can't get a break this year.
CanoeGuru	05/14/2022 08:04PM   dogwoodgirl: "scat: "Might be fun to run some rapids. Never did that up there. You’re not gonna die, c’mon, you’d have to be really clueless for that to happen." You actually CAN die doing that, even if you aren't clueless. Can be fun, for sure, but not in high water conditions." The water is so high that the current leads into trees and branches on the sides of the shoreline. It isn't possible to stay in the middle of the current away from the branches. It's nothing like Colorado River rafting. Definitely not a good idea even wearing a helmet and a skirt over the canoe... which I've never seen in the B-dub before.
scat	05/14/2022 02:53PM   Wow, I went that way on my very first portaging trip up there and I don’t remember that river being challenging or anything special really. We missed a portage and basically walked the river and lined our canoe down it. That’s crazy, glad you’re mostly ok and it would be nice if you got your gear back. What are going to do about the canoe, do you own it or was it rented.
TacoOverland	05/14/2022 03:13PM   scat: "Wow, I went that way on my very first portaging trip up there and I don’t remember that river being challenging or anything special really. We missed a portage and basically walked the river and lined our canoe down it. That’s crazy, glad you’re mostly ok and it would be nice if you got your gear back. What are going to do about the canoe, do you own it or was it rented." People can’t remember ever seeing rivers this high with so much flow. It’s a dangerous situation. Flood stage advisory until Wednesday at 1pm. I changed my entry to Missing Link from Cross River because it looked so bad. This ain’t worth dying for.
scat	05/14/2022 03:38PM   Might be fun to run some rapids. Never did that up there. You’re not gonna die, c’mon, you’d have to be really clueless for that to happen.
Jaywalker	05/14/2022 04:06PM   Regepc: "Regepc: "Just made it to grand Marais after leaving at 3am this morning. Buzz at the holiday gas station says they are closing 61 at cascade river due to flash flood concerns. I made it just in time! Heading up to north fowl, wish me luck!" Well that was a close call! While looking for the portage from little John into royal river I got sucked in to the rapids. Canoe overturned, lost all my gear and the canoe is jammed under a tree. I am incredibly lucky to be alive. Luckily I had my keys and phone connected to a water proof bag and was able to salvage them and walk back to my car (that was NOT easy!) But now there is a canoe wedged under a tree in the rapids and all my gear is gone. I contacted cook county sheriff to let them know I’m ok and that all that gear belongs to me and not someone missing. If you see the gear it’s a maroon backpacking bag and a blue brr bag from wise owl. Be careful out there! I’m in a hotel in grand marais for the night nursing my wounds and thanking god - and I am not even religious. " Very sorry about your canoe and gear, but glad you are ok. Thanks for sharing this with us.
CanoeGuru	05/14/2022 04:59PM   We were able to go in on Tuesday 5/10 at Cross Bay and we just got out yesterday around noon. Karl Lake was impassable on Wednesday and we couldn't get through Snipe on Thursday due to ice. We stayed at the furthest campsite on Cross Bay Lake. The water was crazy high, the storms were wild, and the portages were definitely some Type 2 fun! I'm going to make a quick video of the trip and will share it in a couple days. We were the first people Andy issued a permit to at Tuscarora and didn't see anyone until the final portage yesterday 5/13 around noon. I hope they made it okay. The water was definitely picking up speed!
TacoOverland	05/14/2022 05:23PM   CanoeGuru: "We were able to go in on Tuesday 5/10 at Cross Bay and we just got out yesterday around noon. Karl Lake was impassable on Wednesday and we couldn't get through Snipe on Thursday due to ice. We stayed at the furthest campsite on Cross Bay Lake. The water was crazy high, the storms were wild, and the portages were definitely some Type 2 fun! I'm going to make a quick video of the trip and will share it in a couple days. We were the first people Andy issued a permit to at Tuscarora and didn't see anyone until the final portage yesterday 5/13 around noon. I hope the made it okay. The water was definitely picking up speed! " Why was Karl lake impassable? I’m on Snipe now heading to Long Island tomorrow or next day.
CanoeGuru	05/14/2022 05:27PM   The wind had the whole bay of ice wedged in Karl so you couldn't paddle thru to Long Island or reach the portage. That was Wednesday though. I bet you could skirt any lake that still has ice and do the whole Frost loop if you wanted to now. But, be careful of wind blocking portages with ice and high water near the portages. Snipe didn't have much ice on it Thursday, but the wind had it wedged so we couldn't paddle the Western half of it.
dogwoodgirl	05/14/2022 06:26PM   scat: "Might be fun to run some rapids. Never did that up there. You’re not gonna die, c’mon, you’d have to be really clueless for that to happen." You actually CAN die doing that, even if you aren't clueless. Can be fun, for sure, but not in high water conditions.
Regepc	05/14/2022 08:56PM   CanoeGuru: "dogwoodgirl: "scat: "Might be fun to run some rapids. Never did that up there. You’re not gonna die, c’mon, you’d have to be really clueless for that to happen." You actually CAN die doing that, even if you aren't clueless. Can be fun, for sure, but not in high water conditions." The water is so high that the current leads into trees and branches on the sides of the shoreline. It isn't possible to stay in the middle of the current away from the branches. It's nothing like Colorado River rafting. Definitely not a good idea even wearing a helmet and a skirt over the canoe... which I've never seen in the B-dub before." I was extremely lucky. Imagine being pulled downstream with no way to steer while trying to hold on to your canoe. The water is just above freezing. Then your canoe slams into a tree and gets stuck. You’re still holding on but the water forced you under so you have to let go. You hold on to your pack and try heading feet first with little to no control. Branches and trees are in the way and you put your hands up to block your head from getting hit. Finally the water calms and you’re able to swim to shore. Your gear is waterlogged and too heavy to carry. Your phone and keys are attached to the canoe which is wedged under a tree. You make the decision to go back upstream and jump in the water again. You miraculously make it to the canoe and get your phone and keys. Then you you have to find some place to dry off so you don’t die from hypothermia. Luckily I was super close to the campsite at the head of royal river and it was a sunny day. I stripped and laid on the rocks until I stopped shivering. Then you have to cross the river again because that’s the only direction you can go (south). Now you have to dry off again and you’re shivering. You then trudge for 5 hours just straight through whatever is in your way. But it’s so flooded and the snow actually has slush on the bottom so you keep falling up to you knees or higher and your feet keep getting soaked. You have to stop every 30 minutes or so, take off your boots and warm up your toes which are now numb. I definitely could have died out there with the conditions the way they were and with very few people out there. I was just lucky that I didn’t break anything down the rapids or drown. I was also lucky that it was warm and sunny and I wasn’t far from the entry point. Now, since this is an ice out thread, little John is free, but John lake wasn’t fully and I don’t think McFarland was either. You can make it to that one campsite at the head of royal river on John, but I couldn’t find the portage into royal river (obviously!) because of the high water. I’m gonna try the loop again later this summer or fall. I’ll just not go white water rafting next time ??
KawnipiKid	05/15/2022 01:56PM   Regepc, Very happy to know you are ok. You survived an amazing and scary situation and your calm retelling of the event makes it easy to miss just how harrowing it must have been. It was also literally a good call to let people know you weren't missing for when any calls come in about your boat or gear. Best to you for many safe, fun and less eventful future trips.
CanoeGuru	05/15/2022 02:13PM   CanoeGuru: "We were able to go in on Tuesday 5/10 at Cross Bay and we just got out yesterday around noon. Karl Lake was impassable on Wednesday and we couldn't get through Snipe on Thursday due to ice. We stayed at the furthest campsite on Cross Bay Lake. The water was crazy high, the storms were wild, and the portages were definitely some Type 2 fun! I'm going to make a quick video of the trip and will share it in a couple days. We were the first people Andy issued a permit to at Tuscarora and didn't see anyone until the final portage yesterday 5/13 around noon. I hope they made it okay. The water was definitely picking up speed! " I just made a quick little video of what it looked like out there. https://youtu.be/lgkH-1hG-O4
Jaywalker	05/15/2022 02:46PM   CanoeGuru: "CanoeGuru: "We were able to go in on Tuesday 5/10 at Cross Bay and we just got out yesterday around noon. Karl Lake was impassable on Wednesday and we couldn't get through Snipe on Thursday due to ice. We stayed at the furthest campsite on Cross Bay Lake. The water was crazy high, the storms were wild, and the portages were definitely some Type 2 fun! I'm going to make a quick video of the trip and will share it in a couple days. We were the first people Andy issued a permit to at Tuscarora and didn't see anyone until the final portage yesterday 5/13 around noon. I hope they made it okay. The water was definitely picking up speed! " I just made a quick little video of what it looked like out there. https://youtu.be/lgkH-1hG-O4 Wow that’s some amazing video ! I’m really amazed how much ice there was, especially on Cross Bay which is so shallow in most places. And also surprised to see how much water was flowing over the actual portages. Looks like it was well over the top of your Muck Boots. Between this video and Regepc’s tale, I’m thinking we could hear about a number of incidents of people getting in trouble coming into or out of portages over the next week or two. Yikes!
TacoOverland	05/15/2022 03:51PM   Jaywalker: "CanoeGuru: "CanoeGuru: "We were able to go in on Tuesday 5/10 at Cross Bay and we just got out yesterday around noon. Karl Lake was impassable on Wednesday and we couldn't get through Snipe on Thursday due to ice. We stayed at the furthest campsite on Cross Bay Lake. The water was crazy high, the storms were wild, and the portages were definitely some Type 2 fun! I'm going to make a quick video of the trip and will share it in a couple days. We were the first people Andy issued a permit to at Tuscarora and didn't see anyone until the final portage yesterday 5/13 around noon. I hope they made it okay. The water was definitely picking up speed! " I just made a quick little video of what it looked like out there. https://youtu.be/lgkH-1hG-O4 Wow that’s some amazing video ! I’m really amazed how much ice there was, especially on Cross Bay which is so shallow in most places. And also surprised to see how much water was flowing over the actual portages. Looks like it was well over the top of your Muck Boots. Between this video and Regepc’s tale, I’m thinking we could hear about a number of incidents of people getting in trouble coming into or out of portages over the next week or two. Yikes!" I’m through to Lower George heading to Long Island originally put in missing link. Portages are under 2’ of water in some places.
Regepc	05/16/2022 12:41PM   CanoeGuru’s video shows how swollen the lakes and rivers are. Exactly why I had my accident. Royal river was probably class 3 to 4 rapids and I just couldn’t make it out of the current. I’m waiting until the water goes down but then will be coming back up to retrieve my gear. I assume the forestry service or someone else will find the canoe and gear first, but if anyone is going to John lake and possibly to the Fowls, I’d appreciate a comment or phone call/text if you find my stuff. (952-258-9545, my name is Craig). It’s on the south shore maybe halfway down the portage. Of course if you’re ON the portage you’d likely miss it, but hopefully the bright blue bag will give it away! Don’t feel like you have to lug it out, but a comment to text that it was found would be awesome. I already paid sawtooth outfitters for the canoe, but as I said they expect to send someone out once the water goes down to try to retrieve it and see how wrecked it is. Anyway, I’m going to plan a one night trip for June sometime to try to retrieve my gear if no one comes forward by then. Then I gotta plan my loop trip again. Best way to get over an accident is to do the trip (successfully) again right? I’m sure most lakes are passable now, just be careful of the swollen rivers and portages!
olentangyrunner	05/16/2022 03:24PM   Look slike on the MN Ice out map Burntside is still not showing open. Does anyone know if the south end of the lake is open. I'm going to be going in 4 (Crab lake) on 5/21 and need to cross it.
deepwater	05/05/2022 01:18PM   The 7 day for cast shows basically zero hours below freezing with highs ranging from 55-72. I don't think the ice will last much into next week. I still think ice will be out of most lakes by Tuesday the 10th of May.
Speckled	05/05/2022 03:31PM   Ice update on our lake. It is midway between Two Harbors and Ely. Over a foot of water on top of the ice, 6 inches of hardpack snow and 16 inches of solid ice as of noon today. It has not broken away from the shore yet. Forecast is promising...if I had to guess, i'd say it goes out the on 11th or 12th.
JimmyJustice	05/05/2022 01:33PM   Ice out will be in May this year, just like I predicted several other times. :)
WhiteWolf	05/05/2022 12:56PM   Jaywalker: "Maybe this will help put some things in context. The photo below is Moose lake from 2018 on May 6. Just 2-3 days before, the entire lake looked like the section a above the island. I think it was 6 days l later on May 12 I paddled in a T-shirt up Moose and into Knife without seeing any ice anywhere. Once it starts to go black, it can break up very quickly. " It was also 81F on the 7th in 2018 at ELY airport and warmer for the first several days compared to this year. This year through May 4th at same location (Ely Airport) If everything is = (likely not) one would think ice out would be a few days later than 2018. Just more data points to injest is all. But I don't think tomorrow's Moose Lakes' web cam will look it did 4 years ago, and certainly not in a few days as 81F is not in the forecast for the 7th. A few days here or there can bust a trip for many-- or make it more interesting!!!
gravelroad	05/05/2022 06:46PM   ICButts9: "What is meant by "Ice Out"? Does it mean the lake is free of ice?" Even the people who get paid to compile the reports don't have a clue. ;-) "Definition of Lake Ice Out "The definition of lake ice out can vary from lake to lake. For the citizen observers reporting data, ice out occurs when the lake is completely free of ice. Or, it may be when it is possible to navigate from point A to point B. Ice out may also be when a lake is 90 percent free of ice. Observers use consistent criteria from year to year when reporting lake ice out dates." 2022 Lake Ice Out Dates
Jaywalker	05/05/2022 05:23PM   WhiteWolf: "Jaywalker: "Maybe this will help put some things in context. The photo below is Moose lake from 2018 on May 6. Just 2-3 days before, the entire lake looked like the section a above the island. I think it was 6 days l later on May 12 I paddled in a T-shirt up Moose and into Knife without seeing any ice anywhere. Once it starts to go black, it can break up very quickly. " It was also 81F on the 7th in 2018 at ELY airport and warmer for the first several days compared to this year. This year through May 4th at same location (Ely Airport) If everything is = (likely not) one would think ice out would be a few days later than 2018. Just more data points to injest is all. But I don't think tomorrow's Moose Lakes' web cam will look it did 4 years ago, and certainly not in a few days as 81F is not in the forecast for the 7th. A few days here or there can bust a trip for many-- or make it more interesting!!!" Yes, it won’t look the same by tomorrow and it won’t be 81°, but I still think it’s looking promising. If I understand correctly ice primarily melts from the bottom up. As more sunlight penetrates, the melt speeds up. Moose is getting a lot darker day by day. Yes, a couple days can make or break a trip! I do not have a permit yet, but have been hoping to paddle in to Knife from Moose on Wednesday, ahead of the fishing crowd. Will Moose break up in 5 days???? I’ll be watching the webcam closely.
Jaywalker	05/05/2022 06:38PM   ^^^Good question. I guess my personal definition is the lake is suffiently open that you can paddle most anywhere you want - but not necessarily completely ice free. Once in April I paddled up to Cherokee. There was ice in a few back bays, but I got around fine. I’d call that ice out.
ICButts9	05/05/2022 05:42PM   Jaywalker: "WhiteWolf: "Jaywalker: "Maybe this will help put some things in context. The photo below is Moose lake from 2018 on May 6. Just 2-3 days before, the entire lake looked like the section a above the island. I think it was 6 days l later on May 12 I paddled in a T-shirt up Moose and into Knife without seeing any ice anywhere. Once it starts to go black, it can break up very quickly. " It was also 81F on the 7th in 2018 at ELY airport and warmer for the first several days compared to this year. This year through May 4th at same location (Ely Airport) If everything is = (likely not) one would think ice out would be a few days later than 2018. Just more data points to injest is all. But I don't think tomorrow's Moose Lakes' web cam will look it did 4 years ago, and certainly not in a few days as 81F is not in the forecast for the 7th. A few days here or there can bust a trip for many-- or make it more interesting!!!" Yes, it won’t look the same by tomorrow and it won’t be 81°, but I still think it’s looking promising. If I understand correctly ice primarily melts from the bottom up. As more sunlight penetrates, the melt speeds up. Moose is getting a lot darker day by day. Yes, a couple days can make or break a trip! I do not have a permit yet, but have been hoping to paddle in to Knife from Moose on Wednesday, ahead of the fishing crowd. Will Moose break up in 5 days???? I’ll be watching the webcam closely. " What is meant by "Ice Out"? Does it mean the lake is free of ice?
HighnDry	05/10/2022 08:10AM   KungPowKing: "Does anyone know what the water temps are right now? I'm hoping that pike fishing will be good the first week of June. We're entering at Seagull and are going Ogish to Lil Sag." Take a look at this. Kawishiwi (river) is at 40.8F as of the latest measurement.
KungPowKing	05/10/2022 11:44AM   Wow, this is amazing. Thank you!
ducks	05/11/2022 06:19AM   YetiJedi: " :) :) :) Hope to see you there soon, Ducks!" Yes! Things are looking really good. Good luck getting to Wood Lake tomorrow which looks good based on what opened up around Ely yesterday. I look forward to next week.
LesliesDad	05/11/2022 10:00AM   LesliesDad: "Okay . . . . I'm predicting May 12th for Sea Gull Lake. Is there a prize for being right? ;-)" Don't blame the messenger.
dschult2	05/11/2022 04:28PM   Just talked to Sawbill Outfitters and they said chances are good that enough ice will be out Friday to start a trip but for sure Saturday. I moved my permit back a day to the 14th just to be on the safe side.
Speckled	03/21/2022 09:41AM   My current non-scientific ice out estimates. Ely Side - April 25th-27th Gunflint Side - May 1st-3rd Based on photo's from around my property (Knife River Valley) this time of year over the past few years vs. Ice Out dates. I would say spring is about two weeks behind last year, maybe slightly ahead of 2020 spring and very close to 2019.
HighnDry	03/22/2022 07:03PM   Wet one out there today in MN. If you are further north, you're getting snow! Rum River is starting to unlock with ice breaking up....at least up around Cambridge.
Kendis	03/28/2022 07:41AM   Anyone want to opine on the ice out date for EP 25 Moose Lake for a trip up to Knife and maybe as far as Saganaga? Asking for a friend.
LindenTree	03/26/2022 07:52PM   I won the Ice Out contest on this website by someone who I can't remember for an Ely area lake, maybe Burntside two to three years ago. I was promised some Bungie Dealie Bobs for my correct guess. We exchanged info and delivery was promised, never heard another thing from the person. Lesson, be careful what you guess on.
gravelroad	03/25/2022 02:59PM   Got break-up? Nah, I didn't think so:
tumblehome	03/23/2022 12:21PM   North of Duluth we got a few inches of snow last night. Cold returns into the weekend and into next week so whatever spring thaw we had going on is done for the next week. Winter is still here. I’ll write this again next week but… in 2012 I was camping in the BWCA on April 1st. That was messed up. 70’s and 80’s across the state in March that year. Tom
santacruz	03/23/2022 10:19AM   Somewhat unrelated, but related, our East Central Wisconsin 1064-acre lake, with 15 inches of ice this year opened up on the North, Central part of the lake overnight. The wind is out of the north today which is advancing the open water by the hour. We have a cold, crappy, cloudy day, but I do believe the lake will be ice free in 24 hours.
HighnDry	03/21/2022 06:38PM   We have used Gunflint and Shagawa in the past.
jillpine	03/22/2022 06:52AM   Speckled: "I still have 2 feet of snow in our yard. 4 miles inland from Superior in the Knife River Valley. Our cabin between Ely and Two Harbors is about the same." The tool shed dropped its winter coat on Sunday.
nctry	03/21/2022 03:04PM   Mocha: "are you naming a specific lake for your guestimate? smaller lakes go out earlier than larger lakes...." There is that... I leave the guessing to the experts. It’s just incredible to me that one day the snow was 4’ minimum around my yard and the difference a few days made...
gravelroad	04/06/2022 08:34PM   I had my snowblower out in Duluth today. Folks with opener plans for the Gunflint will want to keep this in mind:
egknuti	04/06/2022 09:02PM   I was out today on several lakes on the Echo Trail and there is a lot of snow in the woods and on the lakes. My guess is ice out will not be at until May…
Pinetree	05/02/2022 08:28PM   Favorite watch the ice melt-Moose lake
tumblehome	03/24/2022 08:34AM   I was once on a late fall trip and had a good amount of snow while out there. It is unnerving when the portages disappear under the snow. Tom
Speckled	03/24/2022 08:57AM   Banksiana: "I took a Quetico trek in 12 that began 4/7. Unfortunately this is what my last Canadian portage looked like. " Been there done that on both sides of the season. I can remember either 96 or 97, maybe 98 fishing opener on the Island River, it snowed nearly the entire weekend. I was young, a bit stupid and wasn't really prepared for it. I feel like it took me a day or two after the weekend to warm back up. To this day, I still say, that's the coldest i've ever been. Another fishing opener on the Island River, around that same time frame, set up everything went to sleep friday night to a cold but not terrible evening/night woke up to 2-3 inches of wet snow covering everything. It melted off that day. Our habit of taking mid to late october trips has had us experience more than one snowstorm. I remember a year camping on a little trout lake and waking up to shelf ice around the lake from the shore to about 6 feet out. Another on Winchel was the worst snowstorm i've been in up there. It came out of nowhere too. Sitting by the fire, fairly nice, but cold evening and then out of nowhere, the wind just start howling, I mean like worried about the tree snapping howling and with it was just blinding snowfall. It was crazy! Fun Stuff!
gravelroad	03/25/2022 12:09PM   That snow cover may not be going away anytime soon: "Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1054 AM CDT Fri Mar 25 2022 "Attention then turns to a deep low pressure system moving onshore in the southwestern US early next week. Much like the system we experienced earlier this week, this one will likely draw upon plenty of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, and a broad shield of precipitation may develop somewhere across the upper midwest. There is still plenty of uncertainty on storm track and intensity, but depending on where this system does track, areas in its path may experience an extended period of precipitation starting Tuesday and possibly lasting through the work week as the system may occlude. Precipitation type will also be a challenge, as enough cold air may be drawn in to bring mixed precipitation and possibly a swath of shovelable or plowable snow on the northwestern side of the low. We will continue to monitor this system, as it has potential to bring active and possibly impactful weather next week." NWS Duluth Forecast Discussion
Pinetree	03/25/2022 06:34PM   14.5 Inches predicted for Ely next week. Break out the shovel
tumblehome	04/04/2022 11:15AM   I know this thread is getting longish but I can say this. The ice is going out late this year. It is still full blown winter in northern MN with the tip of the arrowhead still having 30" of snow on the ground. And there is a winter storm watch for 4-5-22 In Duluth we still have a foot. Last year the ice went out in the BWCA on April 11. This year it will be May 6 at the earliest.
illini79ps	04/04/2022 12:15PM   tumblehome: "I know this thread is getting longish but I can say this. The ice is going out late this year. It is still full blown winter in northern MN with the tip of the arrowhead still having 30" of snow on the ground. And there is a winter storm watch for 4-5-22 In Duluth we still have a foot. Last year the ice went out in the BWCA on April 11. This year it will be May 6 at the earliest." FWIW, LaTourell's on FB declared Moose Lake (EP 25) ice clear on 4/16/2021, with both Basswood and Knife having significant ice remaining. I believe these slightly later dates from a dry and mostly snow cover free April last year add credence to your prediction that it will be late this year. Lets hope for above average precip to increase the lake levels and velocity of rapids/falls.
tumblehome	04/04/2022 01:53PM   These poor geese. I see them flying overhead looking for open water. The only place in Northern Mn I see open water is some river rapids in small sections and Lake Superior. This has happened before when large groups of birds are migrating north only to get stuck on the big lake for a few weeks while the brave soldiers make recon flights to inland lakes. I've seen groups of 30 loons all waiting to move inland. Robins are back trying to find worms under the snow. The deer, well, no fat left on them.
gravelroad	04/04/2022 06:39PM   tumblehome: "These poor geese. I see them flying overhead looking for open water. The only place in Northern Mn I see open water is some river rapids in small sections and Lake Superior. This has happened before when large groups of birds are migrating north only to get stuck on the big lake for a few weeks while the brave soldiers make recon flights to inland lakes. I've seen groups of 30 loons all waiting to move inland. Robins are back trying to find worms under the snow. The deer, well, no fat left on them. " Swans are on ice, so to speak, everywhere. I watched a Goldeneye nearly come to grief when it almost failed to recognize that the St. Louis River had refrozen the other morning. The robins retreated from Kenwood a couple days ago ...
schweady	04/04/2022 07:29PM   gravelroad: "...The robins retreated from Kenwood a couple days ago ..." It's not all bad: when there's more snow cover, they clean up my crabapples a lot more efficiently.
gravelroad	04/04/2022 10:01PM   schweady: "gravelroad: "...The robins retreated from Kenwood a couple days ago ..." It's not all bad: when there's more snow cover, they clean up my crabapples a lot more efficiently. " We have one tree that produces high quality crab apples and another that the deer are welcome to plunder. Because the crop last year was poor, I left everything on the good tree for the benefit of the local critters. This resulted in a substantial quantity dropping to the ground and fermenting there. A skunk came by, got hisself snockered and laid there for twelve straight hours until he sobered up. I thought he might be rabid at first.
santacruz	04/05/2022 05:37AM   East Central Wisconsin, ice out on our 1000-acre lake. Finally, 3 weeks later than last year.
Stumpy	04/08/2022 05:19AM   It's going to be late..... Period !
WhiteWolf	04/08/2022 03:00AM   The mid and long term outlook look bleak for ice out anytime soon in the Northwoods, but especially the Arrowhead. NW MN may be hit another snow event early next week that may actually have some rain/warm air advected into the Arrowhead --- but then (of course) another system in the 10 day period- at this juncture it looks to affect A LOT of the Northland. ( type of preciP at this range is not gonna be accurate - but with current trends , temps look below normal and another heavy snowfall in the Arrowhead is not out of the question. ) ANy accumulating snowfall is not going to help ice out matters. This April is slowly showing glaring similarities to April 2018/ April 2014 which both had similar temps to this previous winter which = a later ice out. NEED RAIN and WARM WIND from the S-SW. That should happen at times but I think the current pattern is in place for a the next several weeks based on teleconnections across the globe. Too much blocking over NE North America ( high pressure) is forcing storms and cold air further S and W. A late ice out is almost certain at this writing unless something drastically changes. But those with a W entry - are always better than those with a E entry due to Lake Superior and avg temps in the West part of the BDUB warming first. I wouldn't write off a very early May entry W just yet, but E off the Gunflint is almost certain not to be out by May 1st or even later. There is some a sign of a reversal come late month in temps. But this will be likely too late and will be dependent on how "the warmth" got there-- usually a precip event. And if it's snow, it's no bueno for a quick ice out (which can still happen , though odds are running lower and lower as I write) . Those with a fishing trip late May/early June in most lakes is showing promise. In other "warm" years- most shallow lakes are past prime with H20 temps way too warm come late May/ esp Early June ( think 2012) . Lakers this year in laker lakes should be caught shallow well into late May/ even early June if not later as trends go. Enjoy the weather- it's the only weather you got.
Kendis	04/16/2022 07:26AM   cburton103: "plander: "Average vs 2022 so far… " Yep, going to be a late ice out for sure, especially with the highs below freezing today and tomorrow with more snow on the way the next few days. Hopefully the rain forecast for next weekend will get things starting to move along! My trip begins May 27th, which is a week or two earlier than I typically go, and this year spring looks a week or two late. Hopefully that will increase cooperation from Lake Trout and walleye!" I'm already 90% sure I'll be canceling my May 7 trip. Who knows, maybe things will take an unexpected turn and it will all work out.
WhiteWolf	04/16/2022 07:40AM   Kendis: "cburton103: "plander: "Average vs 2022 so far… " Yep, going to be a late ice out for sure, especially with the highs below freezing today and tomorrow with more snow on the way the next few days. Hopefully the rain forecast for next weekend will get things starting to move along! My trip begins May 27th, which is a week or two earlier than I typically go, and this year spring looks a week or two late. Hopefully that will increase cooperation from Lake Trout and walleye!" I'm already 90% sure I'll be canceling my May 7 trip. Who knows, maybe things will take an unexpected turn and it will all work out." If your trip is central/Western BW- your likely still good. A lot can change in 3 weeks -even on the Eastern side. But open water is one thing, it being around 40F is another when it comes to enjoying things.
gravelroad	04/18/2022 08:33AM   I would love to stay and chat about the advancing spring, but I have a task to perform first:
gravelroad	04/28/2022 01:01PM   03/21/2022 09:41AM Speckled: "My current non-scientific ice out estimates. Ely Side - April 25th-27th Gunflint Side - May 1st-3rd Based on photo's from around my property (Knife River Valley) this time of year over the past few years vs. Ice Out dates. I would say spring is about two weeks behind last year, maybe slightly ahead of 2020 spring and very close to 2019." 04/28/2022 10:00AM Speckled: "Less than 2 feet of ice...10ish days to ice out, 14 max. " Hmmm .... ;-)
Twins87	04/28/2022 12:05PM   Update from Sawbill on FB today. More info on their posting but here's the highlights.. Sawbill Canoe Outfitters is at Sawbill Canoe Outfitters. · Tofte, MN · Ice update! 36" from bottom of ice to top of snow. Probably about 17 of those inches are solid clear ice, and the rest is compacted slush and snow. #bwca #welcometowilderness #iceout
WhiteWolf	05/01/2022 04:09PM   Tuscarora Outfitters: "Here's what May 1st looks like at the end of the Gunflint Trail. May 1st Ice. Andy" Thanks for sharing!!! Larch Creek is insane!!! Though- glad to see the water up after last year.
Pinetree	05/01/2022 05:01PM   Mille lacs lake ice is half out, usually ice-free around April 21
dschult2	05/08/2022 05:40PM   TacoOverland: "Tuscarora Outfitters: "Current conditions at the end of the Gunflint Trail. May 8th Update. Andy" Thoughts on a May 14th Cross Bay entry headed to Frost lake?" I have a May 13th entry for Sawbill, also heading to Frost. I feel confident I'll be o.k. Hopefully you will as well coming from the Gunflint side and one day later.
OMGitsKa	05/09/2022 10:02AM   The Moose Lake live cam shows the ice is starting to break up pretty good.
LesliesDad	03/28/2022 08:22AM   Okay . . . . I'm predicting May 12th for Sea Gull Lake. Is there a prize for being right? ;-)
nctry	03/21/2022 11:43AM   Looks right on time on the range... our lake goes out April 18th to 20th. Everything seems very normal despite the snow pack which was incredible to watch melt.
Mocha	03/21/2022 02:20PM   are you naming a specific lake for your guestimate? smaller lakes go out earlier than larger lakes....