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Boundary Waters Quetico Forum :: Listening Point - General Discussion :: Record number of canceled permits
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| OCDave |
OldGuide2: "I understand, but am still unclear. Explain why two permits isn’t enough to do what you want. If two isn’t enough, how many is? How many do you typically reserve? If two is too few, what is the right number? I say this because multiple permits deprive someone else a chance." I have no issue with a limit on permits. My argument is only that cancellations with the current system are not inherently a bad thing: it's a feature not a flaw. |
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| Pinetree |
OCDave: "LiquorPugs: "Make permits non-refundable. Many problems solved. " agree and we don't want to make a flexible system into something so strict. Sometimes we wish for something and it only makes things worse. No system is perfect. Just needs a tweet or a light tune-up. Not a overhaul. |
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| Pinetree |
Simple solution to start-only two permits reserved the first month. The loop hole tho if you have a group of four-that's 8 different dates reserved on day one for the say group. It would help if you had to cancel like 7-10 days out or stiffer penalty. But things happen in life, you have to cancel, so its tough to penalize for everyday life unseen events. |
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| Deeznuts |
I think that the system should have an automatic option that you can "trade" your permit for another EP if there is a permit available, and it will automatically release your old permit into the permit system. This would also help the data on cancelled permits to be more accurate. It's very redundant to not only have to cancel your original permit (leaving it tied up in the system) but to also rebook your new one. There should be an all-in-one option. This could also help in accurately tracking repeat offenders of the permit system, people who book multiple permits and cancel last minute. If you're just switching EPs, you'll only be penalized with a low "switching fee" but if you cancel, it will make it justifiable to charge a little more for that. I don't think the permitting system is completely ineffective, but it definitely needs some more tweaking for efficiency. |
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| cmanimal |
Some might think this would drive up cancelations, but removing the perception of scarcity, removes the need to get your permit right away, and allows you to reserve one once you have a plan pulled together, instead of grabbing a bunch and hoping one will work out. |
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| Speckled |
Then without my knowing what was happening, one year (see covid) I followed my usual booking pattern and found nearly everything booked out...We couldn't even cobble together a desired trip of any sorts, so we went outside the BW. The next year and every subsequent year, I've done my best to book my permits for the year on permit day. That's 3-5 permits booked for the season - WAY in advance of the actual trips. Plans change, conflicts arise and I need to adjust. I've canceled probably half of those permits every year. Sometimes I'm re-booking for another day or another weekend, sometimes the trip is just abandon, but in general, I end up having to adjust about half of my permits that were booked in January by the time the actual trip comes. I don't like it - but unless the system changes or the fee structure changes drastically, I don't see changing what I do. The system in place drives the behavior. It's not the users, it's the system. |
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| OCDave |
Permits purchased on the final Tuesday in January would be available for $500 each, non refundable. The rest of us plebs could purchase the permits on the following Wednesday at normal permit pricing. |
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| A1t2o |
OCDave: "OldGuide2: "I understand, but am still unclear. Explain why two permits isn’t enough to do what you want. If two isn’t enough, how many is? How many do you typically reserve? If two is too few, what is the right number? I say this because multiple permits deprive someone else a chance." I very much disagree with cancelations being a feature in the current system. They are a flaw that enables bad behavior. Yes cancelations are better than the permits being locked out and never used, but the system should discourage people from booking permits with the intent to cancel in the first place. When you have to explain how a flaw is really a feature, that's a good sign that the system needs to be reconsidered. I also disagree with only being able to book 2 permits. That discriminates against locals that take multiple trips a year due to their close proximity. What I do think would be a good idea is not allowing 2 permits to be booked that conflict with each other. You would have to implement that one correctly so that you can book and cancel at the same time though. I'm in favor of the rolling permit release. It would discourage permit hoarding due to the fact that there is no one day where the permits are released and make it easier for people that are targeting a specific date. I get that some people need to plan a year in advance, but that isn't very common. Most jobs allow you to put in your PTO 3 months in advance. No system is going to be perfect so some people are going to be negatively affected no matter what you do. |
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| jrad5 |
The real issue isn't cancellations—it's no-shows. No-shows actively block others from accessing the park. Cancellations, by contrast, free up permits for others and help ensure people aren’t forced into trips that don’t fit their family's needs. The current system works well: 1. If you're traveling from afar, you can typically secure almost any entry point you'd like within the first few hours on permit release day each year. 2. If you're in-state/ local, you can reliably pick up your preferred entry by checking cancellations regularly, especially within 1–2 weeks of your planned trip. Focusing on cancellations misses the point. The existing flexibility helps more people have better trips—not fewer. |
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| A1t2o |
jrad5: "Unpopular opinion: You are correct that that the current situation benefits 2 groups, but it would be better to categorize them as people who plan everything before permit release day, and those who wait until last minute. However, it does not work as well for those who plan between 1-6 months in advance. I would argue that 80-90% of people would fall into that 3rd group that the current system does not work well for. Going online after finally getting a group to agree to a date range to find out that your nothing in the area you would like to go available within that range is not fun. Then you have to log on multiple times a day while your trip is in limbo and maybe you can pick up a permit that could possibly work but is less than ideal while you keep checking back to see if one of your top 5 options becomes available. It's stressful, a waste of money, and time consuming to be constantly looking for a permit like that. The current system does not create flexibility, it creates artificial scarcity that punishes anyone that doesn't want to book their trip in either January or 2 weeks or less before their entry date. |
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| OgemaBlackstone |
cmanimal: "Rolling 12 month availability, eliminates the perception of scarcity. Lots of reservable things are (Hotel rooms, Cabins, event registrations, etc..).This seems to be the best answer. Maybe add nonrefundable deposits. |
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| Pinetree |
preacherdave: "What about $100 deposit to reserve a permit? If they hike the permit cost to $40 (I like this idea), you get back the $60 extra when you pick up your permit. You could have a sliding scale of reimbursement on permits turned back in based on how far out it is returned. Seems like we need to make it more painful to hoard permits that go unused." we don't want to price people out of the use. |
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| timatkn |
BigTim: "Average age of user is a concern I share. It's mostly us older folks - but I was pleased to meet a handful of younger teenagers this year. When someone cancels one of their many permits late, it basically takes if off the table. Couple that with reduced forest service hours/permitting - it creates quite a conundrum. Not many people can pick up and trip in short notice (1-3 days)." That's a good point, I just brought a group of youth in (BSA Scouts) and with youth groups you have to book these trips way in advance. You are coordinating multiple families' schedules. Last minute (anything less than 2 months) isn't going to cut it. There are less of these youth groups than in the past. T |
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| Z4K |
There are definitely fewer people up there than pre-covid. I don't do it myself but I'm sure that this is because of the fact that with a few friends you can have an EP to yourself for the low price of (Daily quota - 1) x $6. Deep pockets? Have all your friends get one for each day you'll be in. Still $6 each, the rest will refund as long as you cancel soon enough. Getting cynical about it, please don't flame me over this, it's just the truth, I do not partake but I will reap the benefits until it is fixed (please fix it!). (Fix the bear permits too, 90% of all recipients are just hoarding the tags to protect problem bears) Edit* rant deleted, will someone check my math? Suppose 3 people book 7 days of permits at Lizz/Swamp(3/day, 21 permits total), enter on day 3, leave on day 8, cancel all other permits a week before... my math puts total permit cost at $172. $172 to have an entire corner of the BWCA to yourself. Please do something, USFS! |
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| timatkn |
Michwall2: "Pinetree: "Something maybe someone knows, and is very important, what percent of permits were reissued? All those questions are essentially irrelevant. The number around 26,000 is the total number of permits booked. (I think it varies from 24,000 to 27,000 a year). To know the percent of cancels/no shows all you need to know is the number booked and the number that no showed and canceled. The re-booking is figured into that. Of course some people have legit reasons to cancel, of course some people pick up the cancels but overall those are outliers. When the numbers show 50-60% of all permits booked go unused…none of the outliers everyone is bringing up are important. There is NO WAY 1/2 or more of all the permits booked go unused for the outlier reasons people keep bringing up. T |
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| timatkn |
Z4K: "Not surprising to me at all. I cancel at least one permit each year, mostly to change entry points a couple days before my trip. You can get almost any OP permit you want if you just wait until 2 days before entering. I mean what people are doing in your scenario isn’t illegal. It is a problem…the FS has said this in interviews. I don’t post this because I think it encourages others to do it…but you are correct. I might not like it or think it is selfish…but that’s the problem with the system. The more this stuff happens the more people feel like they need to over book. This was a common problem with Quetico in the 90’s…it isn’t new. The Canadians fixed their system to some extent. T |
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| Pinetree |
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| timatkn |
OMGitsKa: "Z4K: " Rely on everyone to do the right thing for the benefit of others???When in human history has that ever worked :) T |
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| OMGitsKa |
Z4K: "Not surprising to me at all. I cancel at least one permit each year, mostly to change entry points a couple days before my trip. You can get almost any OP permit you want if you just wait until 2 days before entering. Well that is just a scummy thing to do, maybe you should tell your friends to stop or get some better friends lol.... yikes. No shit everyone could do this we just have a conscious and are not scum bags. |
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| yogi59weedr |
Got up to Ely and had motor problems. Hated to cancel but i was S O L. Makes me look bad on paper. |
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| OgemaBlackstone |
Last-minute permit cancellations pose problems for visitors, Ely community |
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| Pinetree |
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| prettypaddle |
OMGitsKa: "Z4K: "I don't do it myself but I'm sure that this is because of the fact that with a few friends you can have an EP to yourself for the low price of (Daily quota - 1) x $6. Sounds like Z4K was just illustrating how/why people might be gaming the system not saying any of his friends were actually doing this |
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| Mesaba |
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| podgeo |
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| Heyfritty |
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| timatkn |
ockycamper: "Our groups are going up the last week of September. Half entering on Seagull, the others on Sag. As I stated earlier…just got back from that area during peak season. For the week before and after completely booked out so 96 out of 96 permits were taken. Easy Peasy finding camps on every lake. Had our pick. Alpine did look busy the tiny section we traversed—so maybe not that one? Like most of the posts on this thread it’s just anecdotal information. So not worthless but not representative of the entire experience. Statistically you should be fine though… I’ve also seen it feel packed with permits remaining :) so who knows?? Statistically speaking with at least 70% of the permits cancelled occurring with 30 days or less notice and 10% of the permits booked fail to even show…You are looking at roughly a little over half of those permits booked (21 out of the current 39 booked for your week) will actually get used. But that’s just an average over the entire season…maybe they all show and the percent no show/late cancel was way higher for my or others’ trip? As I said those are the current averages over the entire season. Hope ya have a great trip. T |
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| LaVirginienne |
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| OldGuide2 |
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| preacherdave |
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| BlackFly |
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| LiquorPugs |
Pinetree: "OCDave: "LiquorPugs: "Make permits non-refundable. Many problems solved. " Fair point–how about a compromise: make the permits partially refundable, say 50%, once reserved. This would still discourage speculative hoarding, since people would be less likely to snag multiple dates just in case. It would likely result in more initial availability for those serious about planning their trip, while preserving some flexibility for changes. If someone cancels, they’d get part of their money back, and that permit would re-enter the system for others to use. That adds a layer of accountability while keeping the door open for real-life curveballs. And hey, the forfeited half? Could build a small BWCA stewardship or maintenance fund–a “bonus kitty” that supports the wilderness experience we all want to protect. |
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| scat |
Like if you want a Little Gabbro permit, all gone in seconds on permit day, you can back door it so to speak by entering at Farm Lake or the South Kawish EP. Prob be more fun going that way anyway. We wanted a Snake River permit one year to do the loop off Bald Eagle, but it was booked, one permit a day, so we improvised and came in via the Little Isabella River EP and came out the Snake. Made it more interesting and didn't change the overall plan of doing the loop at all. I shut up now. Have fun out there... Cheers scat |
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| Pinetree |
BlackFly: "It’s the new strategy for dealing with popularity. People get permits and hold reservations with little intention of using all of them. Then they release them as weather and personal factors become clear. The days of picking up an unreserved permit at the outfitter on the way to the entry point are gone. I used to change my plans and permit based on weather reports once in Ely. No more of that. Multiple reservations is the new thing. I’d like to see reservations made no earlier than 2 weeks before planned entry. Ontario does this with crown land permits. I’d also like to see fewer permits. The resource is over used and the experience has suffered." I think it has became habit forming like many things, people automatically reserve a number of permits at once, than they pick and choose which day they will go. I think also people really don't care anymore if others can't go because of them. The two week thing would affect too many people whom have to reserve vacation ahead of time and some can't cancel it once they sigh up. many would be than just up the creek with no paddle plans. Like I said just tweak it, its a good setup, the problem is actually us, not the program setup. |
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| plmn |
Pinetree: "The two week thing would affect too many people whom have to reserve vacation ahead of time and some can't cancel it once they sigh up. many would be than just up the creek with no paddle plans. Yeah, it can be pretty tough to find canoe or other gear rentals with two weeks notice, and nearly impossible to find a place to stay. The current system can be frustrating but in the end it does work pretty well considering other realities if you know how to use it. It would be very easy for good intentions to make things worse if they aren't fully thought out. |
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| Chieflonewatie |
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| cmanimal |
Chieflonewatie: "I canceled a permit last year. We were going in on moose late September and I realized when I was picking up the permit at the outfitters I made the permit for a day too early. I canceled and pulled a new one for the next day." That's a fear I always have on permit day, that I'm off by a day in my planning or looking at the calendar, or miss enter the date. |
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| Echols61 |
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| A1t2o |
Echols61: "The BWCA is very crowded. My question is why this is happening with so many cancellations? My hunch is a large number of people come in without permits." I don't think people coming in without permits is a big issue. It might happen some, but I don't think it is the source of the overcrowding. I think a big factor is that the average length of trip has gone up and more permits are being booked, even after accounting for how many of those get canceled. If people are in the BWCA for longer then even with the same number of permits, areas will be more crowded. I haven't seen that statistic to prove that hunch, but I do know for a fact that permit bookings have been way up since Covid. |
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| timatkn |
OCDave: "This topic has been discussed previously so if this response is redundant, I apologize. Math says your statement is wrong :) It’s just simple raw numbers…There were approximately 26,000 permits booked. Of that number roughly 14,000 were canceled or no shows. Mathematically doesn’t matter if they were rebooked or not… A cancel and a rebook would cancel each other out statistically. The amount of permits booked each year remains steady…the amount of cancels and no shows keeps going up. It was approximately 60% of all permits booked never got used. Numbers take the emotion and feelings out of it…they just are what they are… T |
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| Savage Voyageur |
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| jrad5 |
I’ve had some extra time to think more about this issue. I keep coming back to this: the only thing that really matters is no-shows and last-minute cancellations. That’s where unserious reservations actively block access and choice for everyone else. A few thoughts on how to improve the situation: 1. Raising cancellation fees won’t work. Fifty bucks isn’t much money these days. You could charge a $500 security deposit refunded at permit issuance—but that would limit access for young people, young families, and anyone on a tight budget. 2. Dynamic pricing has the same problem. What kind of stewards would we be if we turned BWCA access into something as expensive as Taylor Swift tickets? 3. Non-monetary penalties, on the other hand, can work. Here in Minnesota, metro bowhunters who no-show are banned from the system for a year. It works. It keeps unserious folks from taking someone else’s spot. The more I think about it, the more that feels like the right approach: If a party no-shows or cancels the day before, everyone listed on the permit loses access to the park and its booking system for a full year. That’s fair. And it would actually fix the problem. |
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| plmn |
jrad5: "3. Non-monetary penalties, on the other hand, can work. Here in Minnesota, metro bowhunters who no-show are banned from the system for a year. It works. It keeps unserious folks from taking someone else’s spot. There are plenty of valid reasons to cancel late, from car troubles to family incidents to severe weather. Often party members don't even have their own equipment or means to get there. I don't think that penalty would be fair. |
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| yogi59weedr |
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| schweady |
On our way home from Horse to Mudro, we met 2 groups, even though all 6 permits were filled. ?? |
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| A1t2o |
LiquorPugs: "Tell me I'm wrong." You're wrong. I disagree that raising prices is the correct approach to addressing canceled permits. It could potentially help but never completely fix the problem. Like jrad5 said, too low is ineffective at preventing extra permits being booked and too high is discriminatory against low income households. Personally I think those 2 overlap without a sweet spot in the middle, meaning any price that is low enough to not be discriminatory is ineffective and any price that is high enough to be effective is discriminatory. I like the rolling release dates idea. It takes away artificial scarcity in the situation where people grab whatever permits they can on the permit release day then cancel all the ones that they don't want to use a few weeks or less out from their trip. That artificial scarcity is the real driving factor here, take that away and I think the issue will slowly go away as well. |
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| LiquorPugs |
A1t2o: "LiquorPugs: "Tell me I'm wrong." I'm not solving for canceled permits, I'm solving for hoarding–which is one root cause of canceled permits. If I grab 10 permits, with the only intention of using 1, that's 9 canceled permits. When reserving a permit, you should be expected to be able to afford it, whether that's at the time of reserving it or when the date comes to use it. How is that discriminatory? |
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| RadissonNorthwoods |
LiquorPugs: "A1t2o: "LiquorPugs: "Tell me I'm wrong." Because if you make it expensive to access the park, or to cancel, it won’t stop wealthy folks from blocking access for others. It’ll just shut out young people and lower-income families from having a shot in the first place. Look at Grand View Lodge: nothing spectacular, just cabins on Gull Lake, and they’re $1,000 a night in peak season. Still books out solid, mostly with Minnesota families. If someone’s already comfortable dropping that kind of money on a summer cabin, they’re not going to flinch at $50 or $100 permit losses. Price is just an income filter. A higher price doesn't fix no-shows or hoarding, you just make the park less accessible. As for car trouble or last minute medical issue—same as everywhere else: send an email with documentation to retain your access privileges. As an aside: I do think that the nature of booking is it's a barbell. It's fair both early and late when many options are open / re-open. I understand it can be hard to get a party to agree on dates, but don't think we can bias the system toward folks who decide somewhere in the mid-term. It would just reduce the options for people who plan early (trying to get cheaper flights or need a long lead time at work) and for people those who are more flexible / local. |
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| MikeinMpls |
portagerunner: "Not the BWCA but similar experience staying at Twelvemile beach campground last weekend in Pictured Rocks National Lakeshore. Sites are reservation only on rec.gov and all sites every day are reserved (as of this writing there is one site open 9/4). While I didn't do an actual count, the campground was roughly half empty the two days we were there. Quite a few no-shows without cancelling to return to the system." I've not camped at USFS campgrounds with sites that can be reserved, but have driven through many campgrounds and observed the "reserved" ticket on the pole adjacent the site. More times than not, the sites are unoccupied late in the day. And many times, the reservation ticket indicates an arrival the day before, but no one at the campsite. Strictly anecdotal, but it looks like no showing is a common thing. Mike |
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| schweady |
Lightfoot: "schweady: "VNO said their no-shows were averaging 5 per day. :-( Just sayin I've gone in/out this EP eight times and never seen such sparse traffic even tho all permits (#22, #23) were reserved. |
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| ducks |
Before 2023, the earliest I had ever booked was March and that was only once. That was for Little Gabbro in August and I had multiple choices of open dates. I had no problem getting permits for places like Mudro, Lizz, Clearwater etc waiting until May or later. I’m signed up for August cancellation alerts for Baker and I’ve gotten 5 the last couple of days. My summer trips are with one of my kids so I basecamp and don’t go far, but my last 4 have been easier to find campsites. This week at Kawishiwi Lake my son and I looked at 6 of the 7 sites and they were all open so we got our top pick of sites. In June my daughter and I went to Smoke from Sawbill and all 4 sites were open. We didn’t see many people during our stay. When we were there in 2015, we got the last open site and multiple groups came by looking for a site later. Last year I entered at South Kawishiwi River in early August and the first 5 sites were open and we only saw 1 or 2 groups go by. 2 years ago my daughter and I went to Wood Lake in June. There was only one other vehicle in the lot and only 1 of the sites was occupied when we got there. Speaking of no shows, last year when we did our annual stay in a cabin at Rockwood, they had multiple no shows for their bunkhouses that week. |
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| scat |
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| Pinetree |
REGIONAL— The number of no-shows for overnight travel within the Boundary Waters declined last year for the second year in a row, according to data recently released by the U.S. Forest Service. About 13.6 percent of the people reserving permits for overnight wilderness travel during the quota season failed to show up and failed to cancel their reservation last year. Canceled permit reservations are re-entered into the quota system and become available for other potential visitors, while permits reserved by no-shows are lost to other users. The number of no-shows peaked at 16.2 percent of all reservations in 2022 but has declined since. In actual numbers, no-shows peaked in 2022 at 4,276 and declined to 3,572 as of last year, a 17 percent drop over the past two years. No-shows have become a bigger issue since the Forest Service reduced the number of visitor permits during the quota season by about 13 percent, effective in 2022. The quota season for the BWCAW runs from May 1-Sept. 30. Those who reserve permits for motorized day use in the wilderness have consistently been the most likely not to show up. Out of 3,793 day-use motor permits reserved in 2024, fully one-third (or 1,236) of reservation holders failed to make use of them, a rate that has held roughly steady over the past three years. About 15 percent of overnight motorized permit reservations went unused last year, while ten percent of overnight paddle permits went unused. The number of no-shows among those reserving permits for overnight paddling has seen the biggest drop over the past two years, with total no-shows at 2,110 last year compared to 2,572 in 2022. While many local residents appear to believe there’s an organized effort by groups opposed to motorized use in the BWCAW to reserve motor permits to keep motorboats out, Forest Service spokesperson Joy Vandrie discounts that notion. |
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| plmn |
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| timatkn |
Never been to this area before… Every permit was taken for our dates…every day for Sag and Seagull. Had no trouble finding campsites. When we came to the SAK we had our pick of top sites in that area. Jasper Lake was completely empty…didn’t check Alpine. Seagull was easy to find a site on Thursday. Barely saw anyone on Seagull. Seems sus…. T |
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| timatkn |
plmn: "timatkn: "ockycamper: "Our groups are going up the last week of September. Half entering on Seagull, the others on Sag. Hey they are just numbers averaged out over the entire season. Each experience may be different but on average a little less than 1/2 of all permits reserved will go unused within 30 days of the permit date. There is no way to argue it…I was referencing Oky’s chances statistically as his trip is over a month out…the numbers are the numbers. The USDA has all the data. AND I do think the no show rate had to be way higher than 10% for my trip based on my experience. But when you look at averages…someone else’s trip may have been 0%…it’s the entire season of data you have to look at. T |
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| portagerunner |
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| LiquorPugs |
I support raising permit prices. If they raised it to $40, and charged half that when reserving (or full price), that would limit the hoarding. I also support a flex reservation date—permits available 2 months out from [insert date here], for example. |
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| plmn |
timatkn: "ockycamper: "Our groups are going up the last week of September. Half entering on Seagull, the others on Sag. Yes maybe there were more no-shows during your particular trip, but if 96 of 96 permits were taken 24 hours before your trip the no-show expectation would still be 10%, not half. Which means if it really was half for you there would be other times when it was next to nothing. We can look at available permits for this weekend right now and see that although there are some openings, those combined with the stated 10% rate will not come close to adding up to 50% overall. |
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| Dreamer |
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| plmn |
timatkn: "BigTim: "Average age of user is a concern I share. It's mostly us older folks - but I was pleased to meet a handful of younger teenagers this year. When someone cancels one of their many permits late, it basically takes if off the table. Couple that with reduced forest service hours/permitting - it creates quite a conundrum. Not many people can pick up and trip in short notice (1-3 days)." The Boy Scouts have less than half the number of kids as they did as recently as 2019. There are naturally going to be a lot less of them in the BWCA than there were decades ago. Again, the official numbers linked above indicate that the no show rate for overnight paddlers is 10%. I don't think there is any process change that can be done that is going to move that number all that much. There is a very good chance it could make things worse. Desirable entry points were even more difficult to get back in the lottery days and will always be so to some extent. That doesn't mean the system needs major changes. |
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| NEIowapaddler |
If you're willing to put up with more people just to make it easier for everyone to get what they want, more power to ya. I for one am happy with fewer people. Maybe you should think about the potential consequences of what you're proposing. |
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| timatkn |
plmn: "timatkn: "BigTim: "Average age of user is a concern I share. It's mostly us older folks - but I was pleased to meet a handful of younger teenagers this year. When someone cancels one of their many permits late, it basically takes if off the table. Couple that with reduced forest service hours/permitting - it creates quite a conundrum. Not many people can pick up and trip in short notice (1-3 days)." I think you misunderstood the context of me bringing up youth groups. It is clear you can get a permit if you can go last second. My point, as being someone who leads youth into the outdoors. NONE of those youth groups (BSA, explorers, Churches etc...) can operate last second. So the lack of permit availability in February through May, when most of these groups tend to plan outings limits the availability of youth access. The current system affects younger people disproportionally. My group is lucky, I know the tricks... I talk to many groups that just couldn't go because of the access. I try to help them out when I can. I don't think 1 out of every 10 permits being issued that eventually ends up as a no show is acceptable. So I disagree there...second about 50% of ALL permits booked in 2024 were cancelled. So together you have (adding cancels and no shows) 60% of ALL OP permits originally booked never got used (that includes rebooking's statistically). Of those OP paddle permits that were cancelled 70% (the vast majority) were cancelled with LESS THAN 30 days notice (for the average user these are ususable), 28% of OP paddle permits that were cancelled were done with less than 5 days notice. Those are terrible numbers. So yes I will disagree the system is working... AND…the FS is on record they agree… Whether they take more action? Who knows? T |
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| TrailZen |
TZ |
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| Jackfish |
TrailZen: "Rather than jacking up BWCA reservation prices or limiting the number of reservations allowed when reservations start in January, why not mirror the Quetico reservation system of making reservations within five months of each trip's start date? Do away with the January madness altogether! ^^^ What TZ said. ^^^ |
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| OCDave |
Chieflonewatie: "Why do I keep coming back to this tread?" I have had 3 permits to visit this thread this week. While I was forced to cancel the previous 2 permits to this, I am happy to see you were able to secure one of the ones I could not use. Otherwise, it might have become a significant crisis. whew! >> Levity inserted << |
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| Chieflonewatie |
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| LiquorPugs |
cowdoc: "Wasnt sure I was going to make a trip this year but I couldn't stand not going. Booked a Stuart entry couple weeks ago. Not my number one choice but I was amazed at how many entry points were booked full for late September. Based on what I saw in 23 and 24 for permits booked during my trips and number of people seen during those trips, I'm going to bet I see very few people even though most to all the permits are booked for nearby entries that may overlap onto my route. I'm going to keep watching the permit numbers til I leave in September and see if they change. " Late September is peak leafer season. Everything up north is booked full in September, not just EP permits. I've run into scenarios where good sites are even difficult to find. |
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| NEIowapaddler |
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| cowdoc |
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| Pinetree |
LiquorPugs: "cowdoc: "Wasnt sure I was going to make a trip this year but I couldn't stand not going. Booked a Stuart entry couple weeks ago. Not my number one choice but I was amazed at how many entry points were booked full for late September. Based on what I saw in 23 and 24 for permits booked during my trips and number of people seen during those trips, I'm going to bet I see very few people even though most to all the permits are booked for nearby entries that may overlap onto my route. I'm going to keep watching the permit numbers til I leave in September and see if they change. " After labor day the BWCA use to be empty. Still by mid Sept. it slows down. |
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| Gadfly |
Dreamer: "1. I have never known anyone who has ever not gone to the BW because they couldn't get a permit. Every time I check, there are permits absolutely for any given day. Where are these people who can't go? I think they don't exist. If there are always permits and no one has not gone because of lack of permits than what would be the need to reserve them in January? |
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| timatkn |
Gadfly: "Dreamer: "1. I have never known anyone who has ever not gone to the BW because they couldn't get a permit. Every time I check, there are permits absolutely for any given day. Where are these people who can't go? I think they don't exist. Agree--Dreamer is Dreaming :) ...if every single person gets permits. Why do people need to book 7-8 in January to make sure they get the entry they want? Why was it the week I went there were zero permits available for the week of, the week before, the week after (that's 3 weeks) (BTW I saw NO ONE on my trip)? why is the FS service saying this is an issue? Why are outfitters saying this is an issue? I think you are right...if you are a veteran like Dreamer---you can manage the double secret hand shake of getting a permit. For regulars we can work the system...but should you really have to do that? Why have a system in place that excludes new people? Is no one else concerned that the average age of paddlers is going up?...who will speak up for the BWCAW in the future? Do you really think that all of the young people we excluded all of the years before will miraculously find the BWCAW? I mean good luck with that... T |
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| ockycamper |
Seagull has 8 permits per day ( it was reduced). In the six days we will be on the water that would be 48 permits. There are only 9 left for that entire week, Monday through Saturday. Doesn't look like late September is slowing down to me |
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| BigTim |
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| LiquorPugs |
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| Pinetree |
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| OgemaBlackstone |
Once again, more people canceled a permit to the Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness last year than ever before, according to a new report from the U.S. Forest Service. Cancellations of BWCA Wilderness permits reached an all-time high of 11,244, the Forest Service announced in the report, which includes data from 2024 and the past five years of BWCA Wilderness visitation. The Forest Service says cancellations have more than doubled in five years, suggesting that BWCA Wilderness visitors continue to reserve more permits than they can use, according to the federal agency. The previous high for cancellations was set in 2023 and announced last year. That figure was 10,245, meaning nearly 1,000 more permits were canceled last year than the previous record high. As we’ve previously reported, some outfitters and paddlers say the process the Forest Service uses for people to book permits is to blame, at least in part, for the high number of cancellations. link |
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| timatkn |
Pinetree: "Too many people the first hour or day permits are reserving untold number of permits thus tying them up. Agree and copy Quetico on cancellations, rolling availability. Spreads out the reservation pressure. T |
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| Michwall2 |
Pinetree: "Something maybe someone knows, and is very important, what percent of permits were reissued? And how many were cancelled due to a more desirable permit opening up later in the season? What percent is permit rolling of this nature? |
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| plander |
FYI, the overnight paddle cancellation number in 2024 was 9,374. The no show for overnight paddle was 2,110, down from the previous two years. Here the original report: USFS BWCA 2020-2024 report |
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| timatkn |
plander: "OgemaBlackstone: "Record Number of Canceled Permits Once Again Highlights Annual BWCA Visitor Report. Not quite what you are asking but looking at the overall numbers is the easiest and measures the economic impact the best…an average permit year is 26,000 permits reserved. So in 2024 11,244 were cancelled, 3572 no shows…that’s means roughly 60% of all permits reserved were cancelled or no showed. Kinda sad…If I was an outfitter or lived in the area relying on tourism I’d be pissed and maybe the mines are looking better… Just sayin… there are Consequences to actions… T |
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| Pinetree |
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| plmn |
Pinetree: "Something maybe someone knows, and is very important, what percent of permits were reissued? Right. I just did a check and several EPs that were sold out for the year in January have availability this weekend. And who knows how many returned ones were already snatched up. No-shows are actually down. Overall use is up 2.4%, but that appears to be due to day use. Lot of things to consider when judging the problems with the permit process. I don't necessarily like it, but it's worlds better than my first trips when you had to put in for the lottery. I get the frustration but again I would hesitate to demand change because it's working for me. Five trips in the last three years in high demand EPs. My bigger issue is finding a hotel or lodge to stay at that doesn't require a 2-3 night minimum. |
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| Pinetree |
No one at least the first two weeks should be able to reserve more than 2 permits. Give everyone a chance to get a prime route or even a permit. Give other families a chance to go to the BWCA, other than the worst spot or location in the BWCA. |
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| plmn |
I've been able to get my desired entry points for the past three years and have had a good selection of campsites available so I'm not going to complain too loudly. |
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| timatkn |
plmn: "Just remember that if there are fewer cancellations that means more people out there. If cancellations are reduced enough it only follows that entry quotas would need to be reduced, negating much of any benefit. Have you not read how often people have been shocked how empty it has been despite being completely sold out the last few years? 2 years ago I was at Lake one on a sold out weekend…barely any cars there on Sunday when we entered. I mean roughly 26,000 permits reserved and 11,244 cancelled??? 3572 no shows??? 57% of the cancellations and 59% of the no shows are from people who booked on permit day. A day that “sold out” in hours…but it didn’t… The numbers above are real…not feelings…and they are not good. They are very damning on the permit system. I was being a little facetious about mines in my earlier post, but if everyone keeps doing this…who is going to be left that cares about stopping mining or other environmental issues there. How does this affect the local economy? People will turn to other political ideology’s to survive out of economics. Of course no one wants every permit taken all the time…but the system is broken. T |
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| THEGrandRapids |
In 2023, I completely tore my AC joint mtn biking mid July. Cancelled my Ram permit for August. By early august I was feeling I could go (and after some research) I decided to go on the trip and rebooked it the same permit as it was still available. So twice I've cancelled and rebooked without hoarding. |
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| Pinetree |
plmn: "and mega bucks just to sleep for 8 hoursPinetree: "Something maybe someone knows, and is very important, what percent of permits were reissued? |
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| fadersup |
Pinetree: "Too many people the first hour or day permits are reserving untold number of permits thus tying them up. This. |
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| Z4K |
prettypaddle: "OMGitsKa: "Z4K: "I don't do it myself but I'm sure that this is because of the fact that with a few friends you can have an EP to yourself for the low price of (Daily quota - 1) x $6. Correct, I would not be friends with anyone that practiced that kind of behavior with a public resource. By 'reap the benefits' I meant take advantage of the permits that are available on short notice, aka permits that someone else cancelled just in time to get their refund. Just look at Mudro, an entry I've reserved two out of the last three years on permit day. The entire summer sells out in the first hour of permit sales. THE ENTIRE SUMMER, I've checked. Let's go take a look right now... and there's 2 available in the next 4 days, and 1 for the restricted entry. Next available date after that is the 28th of September. |
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| OldGuide2 |
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| OCDave |
"Cancelled" does not equal "Unused". Those outraged by a record number of cancellations are looking at this issue backwards. Cancelled permits are actually a good thing. Cancelled permits = opportunity. Cancelled permits is equivalent to a sprinkle of available trips throughout the summer presenting abundant opportunity for a spontaneous trips to the wilderness. Without cancellations, those who slept late or misread their January calendar would be out of luck for the entire year. Cancellations actually make the wilderness more accessible. Cancellations make permits available to more than the experienced trippers who often visit this site. A young, novice tripper is much more likely to start planning a BWCA trip well past the January permit opening date. Cancellation promote adventure. Snapping up a just recently available permit enhances the feeling of specialness, privilege and reverence that a trip to the wilderness can provide. |
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| airmorse |
OldGuide2: "The annual permit thread. So I will say what I have said before: no one should be able to reserve more than two permits." With respect. Some of us have work limitations which require us to apply for vacation at the first of the year. We cannot go to our boss and say I'm taking next week off spur of the moment. So we reserve permits the first day they become available. |
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| Tryin |
OCDave: "This topic has been discussed previously so if this response is redundant, I apologize. I tend to disagree, except "cancelled doesn't equal unused". However, data appears to suggest that cancelled DOES equal unused in an uncertain percentage of cases. My view is every permit that is cancelled is opportunity taken away from every person who looked for that permit from the time it was taken until the time it was cancelled. One person hanging onto a permit that they have little or no intention of using is not "more opportunity", it is resource hoarding that ENCOURAGES the mad dash in January. A young novice tripper, (me, not too long ago btw) is going to do some basic internet research before they plan pretty much any trip outside of going to work. This generation spends 20 minutes looking at Google reviews to decide where to eat on Saturday morning. And what do they see when they do said research on BWCA permitting? A ton of posts, articles, and videos talking about how to get the best permit, strategies for permit day, and how the good EPs are gone in minutes. So they set an alarm, get online and wait along with everyone else. And when they don't get the one they wanted, they move to the next, and then the next. When they run out of researched options, they hang it up and say, "well, maybe next year". Sure, a few may check back through the year to see what pops up, but a whole lot of jobs require a ton of notice for extended time off. Most of my peer group is locked into PTO by March, and I have to have mine in by November of the year PRIOR to guarantee the days off. It's not an "adventure" to hope that you will hit the EP cancellation lottery timed to the whim of someone who finally decides that "well, guess I better cancel this". Most of the time, I suspect that those not successful in securing a desired permit simply make other arrangements. I have done this twice, once taking our crew to Wisconsin and once to Michigan. There will always be cancelations, and they will all be on the spectrum from "I had a heart attack" to "meh, just wanted some options available until two weeks beforehand". Cancelations aren't ever going to be zero, but the idea that a third of permits being cancelled last year is good news kinda baffles me. |
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| OCDave |
Tryin: " Having one day in January when every permit for the year becomes available and is then claimed within hours is problematic and to co-opt your terminology; baffling. One alternative scheme would be a rolling availability i.e. permits become available exactly 3 months prior to entry date. Another alternative, what if about 1/3 of the permits were released in this fashion? (Approximately the same number that become organically available from cancellations) My point is, cancelled permits function as a natural rationing system. Other solutions that might reduce the number of cancellations might be less palatable. |
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| Tryin |
OCDave: I'm a huge fan of rolling availability. Or taking the approach that Sylvania does and releasing half at an arbitrary date and then the other half at a rolling interval. (I think theirs is four weeks from desired reservation date) |
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| OCDave |
LiquorPugs: "Make permits non-refundable. Many problems solved. " This would guarantee a higher number of unused permits. Also more likely to lock out many more from having the opportunity to visit. |
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| Pinetree |
Its seems most outfitters and people at the meeting support the increase. They all want to do it right and local USFS cares. |
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| MikeinMpls |
Z4K's above example of Lizz/Swamp permits and the cost should someone somehow obtain every permit for a week-long stretch (technically possible and technically legal) is very interesting. I doubt that is as prevalent as a group of guys picking up six permits on permit day, and deciding later which one they're gonna use. Mike |
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| MikeinMpls |
I tried at least six times to get payment to work. The system hung onto each one of those permits until it's time in queue expired. The system had no way of knowing that I was the one trying to get the permits, and that one person had all these permits stacked up for a brief period of time. So there was one point on January 29 when I had at least six permits saved in my queue, though not paid for or reserved, clogging up at least two entry points until it cleared and the entry points opened up again. So for a brief period of time, probably 10 or 15 minutes, people had no access to specific entry points on specific days. For some reason, the payment would not be accepted from someone overseas, or at least that's the impression I got. My wife was on backup permit duty in Minneapolis, so a frantic call to her got everything worked out. Mike |
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| OCDave |
timatkn: "OCDave: "This topic has been discussed previously so if this response is redundant, I apologize. Does a rebooked permit subtract a cancellation? What if a rebooked permit is then cancelled then rebooked a second time? Do both cancellations get subtracted? Statistics will tell any story you want them to tell. I think this issue has become a "Sky is falling" crisis that has a few who were unable to secure their preferred entry point on their preferred date looking for someone to hold accountable. Cancellations will happen regardless of what system for permit reservations are in place. Some will be deprived of their preferred entry point/date combination. I have never gotten a permit for the exact date /entry point I most favored but have never been deprived of an alternate permit that worked. If I were somehow shut out of any BWCA permit that worked, perhaps that would be the year I'd paddle the driftless area. Flexibility rules the day. |
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| Heyfritty |
This year I assumed Memorial Day was always the last few days of May, and last year I mixed up Lizz/Swamp with Missing Link. In my case, it’s age, not stupidity. I can’t speak for anyone else :) Both times I cancelled the wrong permit within minutes or hours. Hopefully the $6 goes to maintenance or some other worthwhile purpose. |
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| Pinetree |
Heyfritty: "Stupidity probably has a small role in the statistics of canceled permits, though it doesn’t affect overall availability. Both this year and last, I ended up canceling a permit because I went into permit day thinking I knew what I was doing. I got a feeling the fee that is kept the private company that runs the system keeps 100% of that fee. |
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| 907Tundra |
plmn: "jrad5: "3. Non-monetary penalties, on the other hand, can work. Here in Minnesota, metro bowhunters who no-show are banned from the system for a year. It works. It keeps unserious folks from taking someone else’s spot. I think there is merit to this idea, it does the best to address the issue of people obtaining permits they aren’t serious about using. Yes there would need to be some means to not unfairly punish someone who had car trouble on the way up or a family medical emergency. This idea isn’t about banning people it’s about reminding them that access to the BWCA is a privilege. It puts the onus on them to not overbook or at a minimum cancel permits in a timely manner so others can have an opportunity. Financial penalties are ineffective when they are small (current situation) and discriminatory when they are high. Ideally if folks would all be respectful of their fellow paddlers and only book permits they intend to use you wouldn’t need rules like this but unfortunately this is not the world we live in. |
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| Lightfoot |
schweady: "VNO said their no-shows were averaging 5 per day. :-( The other 4 could have gone up to Fourtown rather than straight east out of Mudro. I think that is a more popular route. |
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| LiquorPugs |
The current low barrier makes it too easy for someone to reserve multiple permits “just in case,” knowing they’re only risking a few bucks. But a higher commitment cost could curb that behavior. Holding 10 permits becomes a very different decision at $400 vs. $60, even if it’s refundable. Here’s a potential framework: • Cancel more than 4 weeks out: FULL refund. • Cancel within 4 weeks: 50% refund. This keeps flexibility for legitimate plan changes while discouraging speculative hoarding that blocks others from accessing real opportunities. Tell me I'm wrong. |
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| timatkn |
OCDave: "timatkn: "OCDave: "This topic has been discussed previously so if this response is redundant, I apologize. Yes…if a permit gets cancelled and then rebooked they cancel each other out mathematically. You could cancel and rebook a million times and they still cancel each other out…the number that matters is percent booked vs percent cancelled/no shows…the number of rebooks is figured into that. Last year a little less than 60% of all permits booked went unused… It isn’t permit holders for the most part bringing this up. It’s the Forest Service themselves AND the outfitters, tourist industry around it who see and feel the decline. I think someone reported above an outfitter said they were seeing more excessive no shows than before. It is what it is…,excuses…fantastical stories or multiple re-bookings or the obscure late cancels don ‘t change the raw numbers. For those concerned higher prices or cancellations fees will price out young families??? Really?? The current system of hoarding and no shows has ALREADY pushed them out. The Average age of the paddler keeps going up every year!…young people don’t know the tricks we do to get a permit. With the double secret hand shake :) I can get almost any permit I want. But I know they open up last second or I know to book the 1st minute of Permit day. in 25 years only one time did I not get what I wanted, but talk to people just starting out…they leave discouraged. Maybe people think that is good? But apparently I have a disability my parents unfortunately instilled in me…integrity and empathy for other people…I don’t just think of myself. T |
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| ockycamper |
First, $40 would probably not impact solos or groups of 2-3. We bring up 15-20 men each fall. $800 is significant money. We typically go the third or fourth week of September. We are looking at delaying a week and going first week of October to avoid this. Second, permit cancelations happen during peak season. We have gone up in September each year for 16 years and never had a problem with permits. . . and we pull 3-4 permits for our groups. Solution would seem to go at a time when it is less crowded, or first week of October. |
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| Dreamer |
- When I came in the 90's, the north shore was navigable. Now there are people everywhere. It's like a beehive. - I have never met a single person who couldn't go on a trip due to lack of permits. Today there are 32 available. Newbies might need help navigating the system, but they can find that help. - I have taken over 30 new people on my trips. I now take 5 to 12 new ones every year. Lots of people do this, and much more than me. - I see lots of people every trip on the water on entry lakes and at close by portages. It certainly thins out as I go in... So, from my experience, I am not too worried about the age of paddlers going up. I am not worried about the process too much. I think it's operating at par. Yes, I do have concerns about the BW beyond the topic of this thread. Yes, I think they should continue to work to mitigate no shows and last minute cancelations and those who game the system. They should try things like increasing permit costs/penalties or limiting permits to 2 per week. At the end of the day, there's still an amazing sunset to soak in... |
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| Dreamer |
2. The outfitters have been crazy busy every time I go. And it doesn't matter if it's spring, summer or fall. They are making good money. I do not feel sorry for them. In addition, many get a five month vacation. 3. I canceled three permits this year, two of which I reserved on the opening January date. Two to three cancelations per year seems to be normal for us as our group dates change or we change our mind on where to go. Cancelations don't bother me in the slightest. 4. You will always have last minute cancelations and no shows. You mitigate this somewhat by upping the reservation fee and the cancelation fee. But there are always emergencies, fair weather campers, and those that have two options for summer vacation and choose Disney. $40 is a very cheap way to keep a second option open. All n all, I'm satisfied with the reservation process and am in favor of upping the fees. It's about time. |