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Boundary Waters Quetico Forum :: Gear Forum :: InReach weather forecast - am I the only one?
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| Author | Message Text | ||
| brulu |
I think all bets are off if a thunderstorm comes through, the forecast isn't intended to predict highly localized things like the gust front from a thunderstorm downdraft, I wouldn't consider that a wind forecast fail. The baffling thing I have noticed with the inreach forecast involves precip. I've noticed times when the higher level "summary" will say "heavy rain" but when you click down further into the hourly report it will say 20% chance of precip, or 0.1 inches expected, inconsistencies like that. I'll have to keep the wind thing in mind in the future. |
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| Savage Voyageur |
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| mgraber |
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| BdubyaCA |
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| egknuti |
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| WhiteWolf |
2. Wind Speeds Are Modeled at 2m or 10m Above Ground Most models forecast wind at 10 meters above ground in open areas, not above water. As weather professional for 27 years- winds speeds are officially measured at 10 meters-- at airports etc. This is because it's the crucial point (or near cockpit) of jets when landing and taking off for wind. Actual forecasts for wind are likely still at 10M (not 100% on this) but one of the reasons in Nov 2001 the wind chill index was altered to better account for a human face (2 meters) than what had been 10 meters. From my forecasting days- ALL weather models that forecast winds near the surface are at the 10 meter level. An 8 meter difference (from 10 to 2) is huge at those low levels, but shouldn't be as great as what is stated--- So it's possible that Inreach is trying to account for 2 meter winds (over water) and doing a horrible job. What is possible since no weather model accounts/models/forecasts for 2 meter winds. I'am no expert on Inreach and how they obtain their forecasts ( DarkSky- but not an expert on it, nor a fan of it) -- but NWS winds forecasts --- over the years I have been asked by many on what I think of the wind forecasts from NWS -- and I always respond that I have never seen one too high- always too low in what I have experienced. just my .02 |
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| sns |
Temp, precip, wind direction were all good. But consistently, the wind speed was wildly off. It has become a running joke for us. As the rollers are coming in and you're picking bugs out of your teeth...a shout, barely heard over the roar..."It's just 2mph!". Literally forecast speeds consistently off by 5X, and some times approaching 10X. Always way low...and that's info I care more about than temps - so it is frustrating. Anyone else see this? |
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| apk |
I have considerd that I need to mentally amplify the wind forecast and add my own "feels like" interpretation to the numbers I read. Not ideal, and maybe wildly inconsistent. |
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| apk |
But we're not the only ones to notice that the InReach wind forecast seems too low! |
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| apk |
TLDR; a decent summary: "Less Friction: Wind generally blows faster over open water because there's less friction than over land, where features like trees, buildings, and varying terrain act as barriers. Local Effects: Open water environments can experience localized effects, such as lake breezes (land becoming warmer than the water, causing air over the water to rise and wind to blow from the lake). These local effects can cause the actual wind conditions to differ from a general forecast. Microclimates: Large bodies of water can create microclimates, affecting local wind patterns due to differences in heat capacity between water and land." Here was the interesting , and longer, answer: The inReach weather forecast often underestimates wind speed—especially on large, open lakes—because of how it sources and models data. Here's a breakdown of why it's inaccurate for paddlers: Why inReach Wind Forecasts Often Feel Too Low 1. Low-Resolution Forecast Models inReach weather (powered by DarkSky or Spotwx, depending on region and forecast level) uses grid-based weather models. These grids often have resolutions around 10–20 km, meaning they miss localized wind effects on specific lakes or narrow channels. 2. Wind Speeds Are Modeled at 2m or 10m Above Ground Most models forecast wind at 10 meters above ground in open areas, not above water. They assume land roughness, not the amplified wind over open water with no obstacles. 3. Topography Effects Are Poorly Modeled Wind gets channeled and accelerated through valleys, passes, or across long stretches of lake. These microclimates aren't well-represented by generalized models. 4. Forecast Averages vs Gusts inReach reports average wind speeds, not gusts, which are the real problem for canoeists. A forecast of 8 mph might mean 8–18 mph with gusts, which feels dramatically worse on the water. 5. Water Reflects and Amplifies Wind On lakes, wind builds waves over distance (fetch), making even modest wind speeds more dangerous for canoe travel. This effect is underestimated in all general-purpose forecasts. Practical Fixes & Better Alternatives - Use Windy.com or SpotWX for better resolution These let you choose between models like HRRR, NAM, and ICON that sometimes better resolve lake dynamics. You can also view wind maps over time and assess gusts. - Learn to Estimate Wind On-Site Whitecaps usually appear around 12 mph+. If leaves are rustling loudly, it's usually 10–15 mph+. Keep a small handheld anemometer for calibration if you're unsure. - Factor in Wind Exposure A south wind on a long north-south lake is vastly different than a crosswind over a short bay. Add 30–50% to inReach forecasts for exposed lake travel. |
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| noodle |
I generally inflate the wind speed by 3x and the gusts by 4x; if it tells me 2mph and 4mph gusts, it's probably going to be 6mph and 16mph respectively. The forecast is lowballing it, but at least it's CONSISTENTLY low. Also, with their current plans, there's no difference between basic and premium forecasts any more; all weather requests give the premium details and use 1 text message in your plan. |