Boundary Waters Quetico Forum :: Group Forum: XC Ski :: 20-21 Ski Season
"SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 435 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2020
"A broad area of stratus caused by a shortwave has been leading to
areas of flurries this afternoon. These flurries are expected to
continue into the evening before tapering off tonight as high
pressure moves across north central Wisconsin. Low temps tonight
remain chilly, with temps dropping to the mid teens and low 20s.
"The main story will be a broad area of accumulating snow expected to
impact the CWA late tomorrow morning through the evening. Low
pressure propagates towards the area Tuesday morning. Favorable
forcing will be provided via a shortwave and jet streak, both of
which will be centered over the the Dakotas by tomorrow afternoon.
The divergence aloft created by these two features will interact
with moisture advection provided via the LLJ at 850mb. Since the CWA
will be within the cold sector of this system, snow is expected to
be the dominant precip type. However, slightly warmer temps in
northwest Wisconsin may lead to more of a rain/snow mix in the early
"Accumulations from this system are expected to range from 2 to 5
inches across much of the CWA. The 12z runs of the global ensembles
show a congregation of members around the 3-4" mark. Current
confidence in the storm track place these values of accumulation
from the Brainerd Lakes area to the Twin Ports and along the North
Shore. Accumulations near the International Border and areas
directly near the lake will likely see lower amounts, with 1-3"
possible. Localized areas in northwest WI that see slightly warmer
temps may also see snow transitioning to a rain/snow mix, which will
reduce accumulations by about an inch.
"Also of note will be the potential for lake effect snow development
in the higher terrain of the North Shore. Winds are likely to shift
southeasterly ahead of the low pressure, which may lead to snow
development starting along the North Shore as early as Tuesday
morning. East-Southeast winds are expected to continue throughout
the day, which will continue the chance of lake effect snow well
into the evening. Additional snowfall caused by lake effect and
orographic forcing may raise accumulations by roughly 2 inches in
the higher elevations.
"LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 435 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2020
"Tuesday`s system is likely to exit the area by Wednesday morning,
with an area of high pressure developing by the afternoon.
Temperatures on Wednesday remain below normal as a pattern of large-
scale troughing continues. A brief respite from the below normal
temps may occur Thursday in northwest WI as weak ridging sets up
ahead of the next storm system expected to move across the area on
"Thursday`s system is currently looking to be an interesting one,
given the potentially favorable forcing provided via a 500mb trough
and the right entrance of a jet streak. Warm air advection over
northwest Wisconsin might raise high temps into the upper 40s, which
might lead to the development of thunderstorms. Meanwhile, northeast
Minnesota is likely to remain cooler, which may lead to another
round of accumulating snow. This system will be something to keep an
eye on over the next few days.
"The pattern for the remainder of the week will see large scale
troughing causing below normal temperatures. The next storm system
after Thursday might potentially be Sunday night into Monday.
However, global guidance at this time is showing the low tracking
just south of our area."
NWS Duluth Forecast Discussion, 10/19/2020
Per my son, snowflake is open and the trails are very fast
Dog is wiped.