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Boundary Waters Quetico Forum :: Group Forum: WEATHER STUFF :: What’s the best long range forecast?
 
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Jaywalker
04/29/2021 05:52PM
  
Fishing opener is just two weeks out. I’m heading up but already wondering about some gear and food choices. Any recommendations for two week forecasts and their accuracy?
 
WhiteWolf
05/01/2021 10:53PM
  
I will say with 100% certainty that long range temp forecasts are MUCH more accurate ( and easier) than precip forecasts. If your using a credible source. This is especially true in the Winter. Precip forecasts could have a thunderstorm drop 3" of rain in an hour and make/break a long range forecast for several weeks. Even predicting a thunderstorm over a certain location 6 hours out is very difficult. I throw out all long range precip predictions unless a serious pattern has developed --- drought etc. and being able to know WHY that is happening. Otherwise- precip past 5 days is a total crapshoot.
 
WhiteWolf
05/01/2021 10:44PM
  
Jaywalker: "Fishing opener is just two weeks out. I’m heading up but already wondering about some gear and food choices. Any recommendations for two week forecasts and their accuracy? "


Tough question. 10+ day forecasts are obviously highly suspect. That's true even for meteorologists whom don't keep track of things 3-4 times daily. I'am currently on my time off and need a break and just noticed a rather large change in the extended that was not there early Thursday. Too get some idea, I would watch the following linkl; it's updated every day but I must stress it's NOT a forecast , just a probability. And very little accountability is held to these forecasters. But they do catch on (sometimes takes awhile) to trends- but for the layman and hobbyist weather geek, it's good enough, usually. You follow them enough, you will see how they flip-flop. But hey- it's the weather.


6-10 / 8-14 day and longer outlooks