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05/01/2018 02:45PM |
The creeks around home the fish are really spawning now.
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02/20/2018 09:02AM |
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02/20/2018 10:02AM |
The Great Outdoors: "We just got about 11+ inches in the Ely area which is not going to do the lakes any good for an early ice out. :("
It will extend the beautiful winter camping season though!
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02/19/2018 10:09PM |
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04/10/2018 11:07PM |
"4/6/18 - The first official ice measurement of the spring reports 15" plus of hard packed snow (perfect for skiing not so much for ice melting), followed by 24" of crystal clear solid ice. So far we're off to a slow start with more cold weather in the forecast, but we'll keep updating as things progress."
Thats a lot.40 inches total of ice and hard snow. I think anyone going to gunflint for opener should change their mind. The forecast in the cities has nights below freezing 6 of the next 8 nights. I imagine up north will be colder.
My WI opener near Hayward is seriously in doubt as well as its May 3rd. But we are in a cabin so we will ice fish if we have to and probably just end up playing more euchre.
I think the first 2 weekends are in jeopardy for certain BWCA trips. I dont want to be debbie downer, but idk what to say. Ely should open before the GFT.
We got spoiled by the early spring last year. Not much we can do about it except guess and hope for warmer temps.
I also love to golf so this spring is extra brutal.
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04/11/2018 12:11AM |
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04/11/2018 06:06AM |
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04/11/2018 04:35AM |
boonie: "Will it be a wet year this year with good fall water levels?"
That is tough. Precip is always more difficult to predict than temps long range. At this juncture - using all the available information I have - it looks about avg for precip this open water season for the Northwoods. Could go either way, If I had to pick , I would go slightly wetter. One thing I'am pretty confident in is the Southern Plains being dry and hot-- especially early in the summer.
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04/11/2018 04:53AM |
Week 2- April 16 - April 23 ( the deeper the color, the greater the chance of that region being above/below normal- the solid black lines are contours for avg temp in C for that week based on climate normals) Week 2- the model is "seeing" the snow on the ground from the upcoming event and that snow (amount) and thus leads to high chances of being below normal. Even though the Northwoods escapes most of the heavy stuff this time around, it's hard for them to warm up with deep snowpack in areas where warm air originates for them in-- Dakotas (chinook winds etc) until that snow is gone, it's going be a challenge to get decently above normal and lasting...
Week 2 -- April- 16 - April 23
Week 3 - April 23 - April 30th
Week 4- April 30th - May 7th
May should reverse to warmer then normal by mid month however, if not earlier. Do not know if it will be enough for ice out for many reading this.
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04/11/2018 07:36AM |
The Great Outdoors: "HighnDry: "The MN DNR put out a statement today that many northern lakes would likely still be iced-in for the spring opener."
Several of us living in northern Minnesota have been saying that for the last two weeks, but it appears that no one believes it until it comes from the DNR offices in St. Paul, 250 south of us!
Sheeeeeeeeesh!!!! :)"
I agree to a point as well. The DNR is emphasizing what northern Minnesota already knows! They may not want anyone to show up on the opener expecting to find soft water up north. On the bright side, they would have lots of time to hang out in Ely and stock up on supplies!
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04/11/2018 08:59AM |
It still time. Maybe the 7th inning and were trailing big time,but there is time.
I have fished and trolled along the ice sheets in the past. To me fishing was kind of slow. You got to watch which way the ice moves. Big trouble otherwise.
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04/11/2018 09:26AM |
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04/11/2018 12:20PM |
WhiteWolf: "The "2018 Opener Boat by Lund" can be yours cheap NOW before the demand gets high. Order now! :O)
btw- just heard a report that there is still 50" of ice on parts of LOTW>
"
First how did you get a picture of my boat? ;>)
I can confirm the 50" of ice on LOW. I have acquaintances that fished there last week and in places could not get through with extensions on the auger. 48" is what that translates into.
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04/11/2018 12:53PM |
‘Stay tuned for continuous updates on what may be an historic, mid-April snowfall. So far the Twin Cities have picked up 10.3" so far in April. The all-time April snowfall record for MSP is 21.8" set in 1983. At the rate we're going we may come close.’
And this coming from Douglas. Not Dave Dahl. IF you know your TV weather people in the Twin Cities market- you know what I'am talking about.
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04/11/2018 11:48AM |
btw- just heard a report that there is still 50" of ice on parts of LOTW>
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04/11/2018 12:53PM |
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04/11/2018 12:57PM |
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04/12/2018 02:10PM |
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04/11/2018 04:38PM |
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04/11/2018 04:37PM |
"MPX ( Minneapolis National Weather Service) posting a watch soon for the TC. 8-12” snow with up to 0.2” of ice, blizzard conditions possible mainly in W MN. Possible power outages and nearly impossible travel. Rather strongly worded."
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
344 PM CDT Wed Apr 11 2018
...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING...
.A significant winter storm Friday night into Saturday evening
could include all precipitation types, strong winds, and blizzard
conditions. A Winter Storm Watch has been issued.
Rain and thunderstorms are expected to develop late Thursday night
and persist for much of the day Friday as temperatures remain in
the mid to upper 30s. Colder air will begin to move in Friday
evening, changing the precipitation to snow across central and
western Minnesota. In addition to the heavy snow, strong winds
gusting between 40 to 50 mph will bring the possibility of
blizzard conditions to west central Minnesota. The best chance for
whiteouts will be late Friday night there. The rain will turn to
a wintry mix of freezing rain, sleet, and snow across south
central and east central Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin
Friday evening, before changing to all snow Saturday.
Total snow accumulations of 8 to 12 inches are possible across
central and west central Minnesota, with totals tapering off to 3
or 4 inches across south central Minnesota and west central
Wisconsin. Total ice accumulations of two tenths to three tenths
of an inch are possible across south central Minnesota and west
central Wisconsin, with amounts tapering off to a tenth of an inch
or less across western and central Minnesota.
Watches include the following in the MPX area-
Chisago-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-Sibley-Carver-Scott-
Dakota-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Polk-Barron-Rusk-St. Croix-Pierce-
Dunn-Pepin-Chippewa-Eau Claire-
Including the cities of Center City, Minneapolis, Blaine,
St Paul, Stillwater, Gaylord, Chaska, Shakopee, Hastings,
New Ulm, St Peter, Le Sueur, Faribault, Red Wing, St James,
Mankato, Waseca, Owatonna, Fairmont, Blue Earth, Osceola,
Rice Lake, Ladysmith, Hudson, River Falls, Prescott, Menomonie,
Durand, Chippewa Falls, and Eau Claire
344 PM CDT Wed Apr 11 2018
Enjoy the weather. It's the only weather you got.
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04/11/2018 04:58PM |
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04/11/2018 05:14PM |
Frankie_Paull: "Whitewolf If you had to predict a 7 day range of when the ice will be out what would it be ?"
If your talking Bwca area I would say , on avg, May 8- 14. But that is general and not big , deep lakes , especially East of Gunflint. I would be leary of any entry (other then River) at this juncture for opener of May 12th. There is no way any big lakes in the Arrowhead open in the next 2-3 weeks. Further west of Ely, maybe, but I doubt it.
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04/11/2018 05:38PM |
Yes the crappies were biting.
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03/26/2018 08:06AM |
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04/11/2018 07:20PM |
As for ice-out, got a cabin on Sag for the opener and come hell or high water we'll be fishing, sipping Kraken, and playing LOTS of Cribbage!
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04/03/2018 06:44PM |
Moss Tent: "WW: "Some signs of hope?? As I have mentioned in previous posts- the pattern should flip mid/late month. Some computer guidance is starting to show that.""
As a former military pilot, I appreciate met reports more than most.
But the above is classic. Really? Things warming up in mid/late April? I never would have guessed. Good thing the big boys have petaFLOPS computers to validate the obvious."
It doesn't have to "warm" up. There are plenty of years I could show where the pattern stayed like this through the month. 1936 and 1950 come to mind without looking. Justine Kerfoot of Gunflint Lodge walked across Gunflint Lake on June 1st , 1936. Not as obvious as one would think in an extreme pattern that throws climate normals out the proverbial window....
Appreciate your kudos on the reports.
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04/06/2018 11:52AM |
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04/04/2018 06:17AM |
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04/04/2018 06:17AM |
From in a depth study across the Upper Midwest -1881 had a very cold spring. That is another year that "things didn't go to climate norms and warm up in Mid- April". I could pass along the data from 1881 (among other years) that the cold pattern persisted into June.....
Having a little fun here. "Moss Tent" must only set up on the north side of trees when it comes to facts/reality with weather/forecasting/climate.
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02/20/2018 12:31PM |
Bahahahaha
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02/20/2018 01:21PM |
arctic: "We picked up 15 inches of snow in the past 48 hours and have 24 inches on the ground. This is about average for this time of year."
Wow,you really didn't have much before either.
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02/20/2018 09:48PM |
Looks like we could be pushing the canoe across the ice, eh?
Well, we did a late trip one fall and had to break ice on the way out. So I guess we will see what happens. I do know the ice is good and thick up the Gunflint this year.
Thanks for the interesting discussion WhiteWolf.
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02/21/2018 09:07AM |
YES !!!!
Thanks and keep it frosty!
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02/21/2018 09:18AM |
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02/21/2018 09:26AM |
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02/21/2018 11:19AM |
HoneyGuy101: "Thank God for this website right now. Negative temperatures and fresh snow are making it difficult to believe that we'll be there in 90 days. But seriously though, I cannot wait!"
I'm with you on this one! I only modestly hoping that March at this point starts to trend into above freezing days/below freezing nights so that I can tap my maple trees!
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03/01/2018 04:25PM |
Just had the nephew pull the canoe out of the back and load it on the trailer. Heading north this weekend for some snow shoeing but I just can't go up north without a canoe - no matter the season. Or this canoe needs to get to the cabin.
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03/01/2018 04:57PM |
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03/01/2018 06:23PM |
Grandma L: "
Wow, Grandma L,
I thought my beaters looked beat, but you may have one uped me, not sure but it's close.
My beater (one of many), I managed to put some pretty good soot/smoke/fire stains on my Smoker Craft while doing one of my "Controlled Burns" on my property.
Didn't hurt it any, and now those soot stains, really give it character to this wildland firefighter.
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03/01/2018 06:46PM |
LindenTree3: "Grandma L: "
Wow, Grandma L,
I thought my beaters looked beat, but you may have one uped me, not sure but it's close.
My beater (one of many), I managed to put some pretty good soot/smoke/fire stains on my Smoker Craft while doing one of my "Controlled Burns" on my property.
Didn't hurt it any, and now those soot stains, really give it character to this wildland firefighter."
Them old aluminum canoes were tough and relatively heavy(my 17 foot alumacraft weighted like 80 pounds plus.) But you could beat the heck out of them and they were ready for more.
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03/01/2018 10:27PM |
Grandma L: "
I bought this old 17' Alumicraft in 1965. It is still in great shape. It was just parked in the leaf pile for, well, several months. A good washing and it will be good as new. It was last used as a table top on a couple of saw horses for an outdoor wedding reception in my back yard - 3 years ago.
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03/01/2018 10:35PM |
Grandma L: "Grandma L: "
I bought this old 17' Alumicraft in 1965. It is still in great shape. It was just parked in the leaf pile for, well, several months. A good washing and it will be good as new. It was last used as a table top on a couple of saw horses for an outdoor wedding reception in my back yard - 3 years ago."
I think I bought mine in 1972 and it weight was actually 85 pounds(I actually weighed it once) they advertised it as 72 pounds. Still great river canoes.
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03/02/2018 12:10PM |
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03/04/2018 07:01PM |
TheGreatIndoors: "Okay WhiteWolf, any updates from the weather gods? "
Been away from the weather since late last week and just starting to get back into it. I will try and put something together for an extended outlook (10+ days) for MN/WI early this upcoming week.
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02/18/2018 07:45AM |
halvorsonchristopher: "QueticoMike: "halvorsonchristopher: "QueticoMike: "A few weeks ago I decided I was going to go a week later than previous years."What type of trip are you pushing back?"
I mostly fish for smallmouth bass. I think this year we might be spending more time in the Basswood area. "
Best of luck.
Are you assuming all prime time fishing windows will be a delayed? or just the Smallie sub-surface/top-water?"
The last few or more years the water was still too cold for bass to move up onto the bedding areas. Hoping that by going a week later might help. We'll probably be a week late now :)
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02/18/2018 04:10PM |
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02/18/2018 04:14PM |
The Great Outdoors: "We just got about 11+ inches in the Ely area which is not going to do the lakes any good for an early ice out. :("
Wow,we got zero in the Mille lacs area. We could actually use some down here. Sounds like slush time again up there?
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02/18/2018 03:34AM |
WhiteWolf: "Banksiana: "You models lack some important details....
Snow cover around Ely is significant. Snowfall was also timed previous to long term cold events so ice thickness is probably less than normal.
I don't think ice thickness is as an important driver of ice out as much as is late season snow frequency. The snow reflects the energy of the late winter/early spring sun- when the ice is exposed (without snow) to the sun it degrades quickly, if it is blanketed it holds on."
I agree with the later. Expect the snowfall to increase, especially late spring as the battleground that has been Chicago,Des Moines,inches back
N. Chicago has more snow on the ground then many places in the N. Mn Much of the North has been in snow drought lately. It's just been too cold ( lack of moisture) for appreciable snow in the N.
Long range, I don't use "models", rather teleconnections ( I can provide a list for those "weenies" that want to see) around the globe. Majority of them show a late spring. Could change but 70% of my experience says late ice out.
"
Not to toot my own horn-- but here it comes (the snow) for the Northland. Not only this late weekend, but for most of the medium/long range (5-7 days) in the extended. Tis' the season. for snow in the NORTH along with ice storms in Iowa. I will be somewhat surprised- with the latest info I have seen for March- if lakes are out early. March looks much like the recent late DEC- early JAN temps (adjusted for normals) to repeat itself. As mentioned- snowfall will be key as we get further into March and is impossible to forecast past 7 days. But a good snow pack is going be laid down in the next 7 days across much of MN-- likely the deepest of all season across the Northland.
Enjoy the weather- it's the only weather you got.
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03/28/2018 05:04PM |
Mad_Angler: "WhiteWolf: "...
So what do we have on the table for the next 3 weeks or so? More of the same. Remember- the following are not forecasts, (doesn't tell you how much below / above) just probabilities. But I can tell you from being in the field for 20 years that this is going to be well below normal and the first 10 days of April for many reading this in the Upper Midwest (I wrote about that (early APril) in another thread) is going to be coldest opening 1/3rd of April since 2007/2013 or even 1962. ...
"
So... If I'm reading this correctly, it will be a pretty late ice out. It doesn't look like the ice will even begin to melt for another few weeks. If it starts to melt in mid April, it will be at least early May before it is gone.
What are you putting your odds for a liquid opener?"
Where? The only lakes I would be somewhat concerned about (and even that concern would be rather mild) is the large/deep lakes closest to Lake Superior like BIG SAG / GUNFLINT etc. The Western Lakes in the BWCAW historically lose their ice first and I don't see any in that geographic region still having an ice cover come May 12th as of this writing. less then 5% chance. A week earlier would be different.
15% chance as of this writing lakes like BIG SAG and Gunflint have ice on May 12th.
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03/28/2018 09:21PM |
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03/28/2018 09:17PM |
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03/29/2018 06:33AM |
Pinetree: "I don't think we will make normal ice out but still think we got a great chance for ice out by opener,If it can start warming up by at least April 10th. We got some wiggle room yet."
I think our wiggle room is gone looking at the forecast up until April 11th.
If that prediction holds, only rain and night temps in the 40 degree or warmer range will take the ice out before the opener.
You may have some lakes in central or southern Minnesota that will be ice free, but the northern portion is gonna have issues.
Hope I'm wrong, but it does not look good!!!!
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03/29/2018 07:26AM |
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03/29/2018 07:53AM |
The Great Outdoors: "Pinetree: "I don't think we will make normal ice out but still think we got a great chance for ice out by opener,If it can start warming up by at least April 10th. We got some wiggle room yet."
I think our wiggle room is gone looking at the forecast up until April 11th.
If that prediction holds, only rain and night temps in the 40 degree or warmer range will take the ice out before the opener.
You may have some lakes in central or southern Minnesota that will be ice free, but the northern portion is gonna have issues.
Hope I'm wrong, but it does not look good!!!!
"
Woke up turn on Computer and I see this for my area: .An Alberta clipper is anticipated to move through the Northland Confidence is increasing that a swath of 6 to 9" will be possible from the Brainerd Lakes area east towards the Twin Ports and across all of northwest Wisconsin. Some gusty northerly winds should accompany the clipper, with gusts between 20 to 30 mph, which could lead to blowing snow and reduced visibilities.
This will lead to some hazardous travel conditions during this
time frame.
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03/29/2018 08:11AM |
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03/29/2018 02:30PM |
I'll be surprised if the Ely area has all the lakes open by then.
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03/29/2018 01:00PM |
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04/02/2018 04:29PM |
Lincoln,IL crushed the old record of 20F by 21 degrees (-1F).
The -1°F temperature at Lincoln, IL, is the most southerly sub-zero reading in the month of April for any station between western Kansas and eastern W. Virginia in the climate record.
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04/02/2018 06:37PM |
Some signs of hope?? As I have mentioned in previous posts- the pattern should flip mid/late month. Some computer guidance is starting to show that. The latest European Model Ensembles (a blend of 50 runs- each tweaked in a different way before initialization ) for Cedar Rapids,IA has it becoming near normal by mid month. Let's hope it's the case!!!
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04/02/2018 06:58PM |
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04/02/2018 07:13PM |
WhiteWolf: "Just came across this--
Lincoln,IL crushed the old record of 20F by 21 degrees (-1F).
The -1°F temperature at Lincoln, IL, is the most southerly sub-zero reading in the month of April for any station between western Kansas and eastern W. Virginia in the climate record.
That is very impressive. I've only recorded five zero or below readings in April since I first began official observation in 1998 (the latest on April 20!) But I live 500 miles farther north!
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04/02/2018 07:49PM |
nooneuno: "More proof of global warming......Sorry WW someone had to do it............."remember"they" had to change it to climate change because global warming was proven wrong :)
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04/02/2018 08:13PM |
arctic: "WhiteWolf: "Just came across this--
Lincoln,IL crushed the old record of 20F by 21 degrees (-1F).
The -1°F temperature at Lincoln, IL, is the most southerly sub-zero reading in the month of April for any station between western Kansas and eastern W. Virginia in the climate record.
That is very impressive. I've only recorded five zero or below readings in April since I first began official observation in 1998 (the latest on April 20!) But I live 500 miles farther north!"
Brainerd in 1975 April 1-4 ranged from -4 to -14 degrees F.. I know it waas a hard winter on the deer.(I really am dating myself now-the old days)
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04/03/2018 06:28AM |
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04/03/2018 10:41AM |
We were still dealing with waist deep snow near shore! We have missed the last couple of big rounds of snow, but with the cooler weather we are not melting any of the snow.
A question for WhiteWolf -- It seems that once the snow is gone, the temperatures start to rise rapidly. Is there any data showing what the tempteratures would be like during this cold snap if there was no snow on the ground?
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04/03/2018 09:37AM |
nooneuno: "More proof of global warming......Sorry WW someone had to do it............."
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04/03/2018 05:09PM |
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04/03/2018 05:47PM |
|
04/03/2018 05:02PM |
As a former military pilot, I appreciate met reports more than most.
But the above is classic. Really? Things warming up in mid/late April? I never would have guessed. Good thing the big boys have petaFLOPS computers to validate the obvious.
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04/04/2018 07:56AM |
Weather forecasting is always related to some particular interest. On this board, that appears to be ice-out—and for that purpose, yes, the behavior of your “pattern” is of interest.
And yes I know that it can and will warm even if the pattern holds.
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04/04/2018 02:36PM |
And I’m from Canada!
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04/04/2018 03:03PM |
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04/04/2018 02:40PM |
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04/04/2018 02:58PM |
Jaywalker: "So, for those of us going up in late May, and who need ice in our drinks, we might not have to worry about portaging extra pounds in coolers, right? "
Always thought it was neat to find ice in the rock crevices in May or a lasting snow drift on a portage.
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04/04/2018 02:42PM |
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04/16/2018 02:20PM |
Mad_Angler: "It looks like Ely will get some good melting starting this Thursday and running for about a week. The spring sun is pretty hot. Hopefully, it makes some progress.
Here is a 10 day forecast. (I know that they are really just guessing that far out but it does look promising)
Ely 10 day "
About 3-4 of those warm days can be used to get rid of this 10 inches of snow we just got dumped on us last night!! :)
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04/16/2018 02:54PM |
Tonight I get to climb on the roof and clear the plumbing vents that are covered in snow drifts. Had them open Saturday but they covered over again on Sunday night.
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04/30/2018 01:00PM |
HighnDry: "60s next week in the TC. We'll see."83F in TC today. That should at least help the local lakes.
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04/30/2018 05:06PM |
inspector13: "
Are you sitting over spent fuel rods in Monticello? Its only 67F in Roseville.
"
86 near Jordan right now. I cut my hike short because it's too freaking hot.
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04/30/2018 06:32PM |
Cedar lake, St. Croix Couty 25% ice out
Balsam Lake, Polk County 0% ice out
Clam Flowage, Burnett County 100% ice out
Yellow Lake, Burnett County 75% ice out
Big Sand, Burnett County 0% ice out
Poquettes Lake, Burnett County 5% ice out
Crooked Lake, Burnett County 100% ice out
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04/30/2018 07:00PM |
nooneuno: "Northern Wisconsin today:I’m in Polk county on King lake (53 acres) and we’re ice free here.
Cedar lake, St. Croix Couty 25% ice out
Balsam Lake, Polk County 0% ice out
Clam Flowage, Burnett County 100% ice out
Yellow Lake, Burnett County 75% ice out
Big Sand, Burnett County 0% ice out
Poquettes Lake, Burnett County 5% ice out
Crooked Lake, Burnett County 100% ice out
"
Jon
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04/30/2018 07:03PM |
Jon
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04/30/2018 07:43PM |
never mind... just tidying up...
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04/30/2018 09:49PM |
primitiveguy: "I’m in Polk county on King lake(53 acres) and we’re ice free !the one by the airport in the town with the twin lakes?
Jon"
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05/01/2018 03:48AM |
nooneuno: "Yup You know it?primitiveguy: "I’m in Polk county on King lake(53 acres) and we’re ice free !the one by the airport in the town with the twin lakes?
Jon"
"
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05/01/2018 06:29AM |
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05/01/2018 07:12AM |
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02/19/2018 09:13PM |
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03/01/2018 09:30AM |
TheGreatIndoors: "Okay WhiteWolf, any updates from the weather gods? "
You mean I can't head north with the canoe this week TGO?
I see next week looks like a mess,with rain,snow or sleet? The forecasts are all over the place.
Yeh Whitewolf what our you going to send our way?
I do know the sun has power now and hillsides are trying to get bare.
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03/01/2018 07:54AM |
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02/15/2018 10:37PM |
Ice on lakes is like 22-25 inches around Brainerd and I heard like 25-30 inches up the Gunflint. But with little snow on the lakes if it melts and than plain ice absorbs more heat also. Especially when it gets a little dark color.
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02/15/2018 11:08PM |
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02/13/2018 10:41PM |
QueticoMike: "halvorsonchristopher: "QueticoMike: "A few weeks ago I decided I was going to go a week later than previous years."What type of trip are you pushing back?"
I mostly fish for smallmouth bass. I think this year we might be spending more time in the Basswood area. "
Best of luck.
Are you assuming all prime time fishing windows will be a delayed? or just the Smallie sub-surface/top-water?
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02/13/2018 02:00PM |
lundojam: "I've always wanted to icefish the opener. Maybe this will be the year."
Trout Lake. 2008. Trout Lake Resort called the DNR if you could use two lines for the opener. Response was that if you are on the ice, yes .
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02/13/2018 02:07PM |
HoneyGuy101: "For the first time ever I have a Spring trip planned. I have scheduled it for Memorial Week and I'm getting concerned with the weather more and more. With a late ice out like you speak of I'm getting more nervous about that trip now. I'm already more worried about wind and weather the way it is but it being cold on top of that has me concerned."
I wouldn't be concerned about ice that late. But for the record, on June 1st, 1936 Justine Kerfoot of Gunflint Lodge walked across Gunflint Lake. 1936 had some of the greatest weather extremes in the upper Midwest that has ever been recorded.
Mn ice out records for Gunflint Lake
Cook County News Herald
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02/13/2018 08:13AM |
halvorsonchristopher: "QueticoMike: "A few weeks ago I decided I was going to go a week later than previous years."
What type of trip are you pushing back?
May trout? or June walleye/smallies?
What Region you headed to?"
I mostly fish for smallmouth bass. I think this year we might be spending more time in the Basswood area.
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02/13/2018 09:10AM |
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02/13/2018 12:45PM |
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02/12/2018 08:57PM |
I would not want to have another blah trip like that one! Come one spring!
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02/12/2018 09:48PM |
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02/12/2018 11:49PM |
QueticoMike: "A few weeks ago I decided I was going to go a week later than previous years."
What type of trip are you pushing back?
May trout? or June walleye/smallies?
What Region you headed to?
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02/12/2018 11:49PM |
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02/13/2018 06:29AM |
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02/12/2018 11:27AM |
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02/12/2018 12:23PM |
Banksiana: "You models lack some important details....
Snow cover around Ely is significant. Snowfall was also timed previous to long term cold events so ice thickness is probably less than normal.
I don't think ice thickness is as an important driver of ice out as much as is late season snow frequency. The snow reflects the energy of the late winter/early spring sun- when the ice is exposed (without snow) to the sun it degrades quickly, if it is blanketed it holds on."
I agree with the later. Expect the snowfall to increase, especially late spring as the battleground that has been Chicago,Des Moines,inches back
N. Chicago has more snow on the ground then many places in the N. Mn Much of the North has been in snow drought lately. It's just been too cold ( lack of moisture) for appreciable snow in the N.
Long range, I don't use "models", rather teleconnections ( I can provide a list for those "weenies" that want to see) around the globe. Majority of them show a late spring. Could change but 70% of my experience says late ice out.
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02/12/2018 12:39PM |
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02/12/2018 12:46PM |
housty9: "So May 10th could be 50/50 chance."
I wouldn't go that far yet. Depends on entry. Sag and Gunflint (etc) might be 50/50. Right now analog years long term forcasters are using are ; 2013,2008 and even shades of 1996 among others that are warmer but a blend definitely shows a late trend.
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02/12/2018 12:57PM |
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02/12/2018 01:32PM |
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02/12/2018 09:13AM |
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02/12/2018 09:31AM |
riverrunner: "I well tell more when mid April hits."
Truth. But by then everyone knows... Even the TV Mets can forecast that. Telling people that have listened to me in the past (for whatever reason) -- ice out looks late this year.
Not 1996, or 2013,, but maybe something in between?
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02/12/2018 09:40AM |
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02/12/2018 09:42AM |
Gadfly: "So I shouldn't be concerned about ice conditions in late March when I head up for Lakers?"
Trick question. Obviously check the ice. But it's looking good minus the slush that many late Marches bring... And I don't even work on TV........
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02/12/2018 10:10AM |
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02/12/2018 10:09AM |
Snow cover around Ely is significant. Snowfall was also timed previous to long term cold events so ice thickness is probably less than normal.
I don't think ice thickness is as an important driver of ice out as much as is late season snow frequency. The snow reflects the energy of the late winter/early spring sun- when the ice is exposed (without snow) to the sun it degrades quickly, if it is blanketed it holds on.
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02/13/2018 10:39PM |
HoneyGuy101: "For the first time ever I have a Spring trip planned. I have scheduled it for Memorial Week and I'm getting concerned with the weather more and more."
Nothing to worry about here! You'll be ok! Even if Ice out is LATE, it wont be that late.
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02/12/2018 01:50AM |
The following site is a little biased (as is much Noaa.gov stuff ) and has little discipline (if they are wrong)-- but it gives the big picture.. Since I cannot provide private forecasts on this site--- this should show a trend.
NCEP short and long range weather outlooks...
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03/26/2018 01:58PM |
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03/27/2018 02:57AM |
WhiteWolf: "TheGreatIndoors: "Okay WhiteWolf, any updates from the weather gods? "
Been away from the weather since late last week and just starting to get back into it. I will try and put something together for an extended outlook (10+ days) for MN/WI early this upcoming week. "
Sure, you step away from it and it all goes to heck in a hen basket. Haha. Not get the warm-up going... That's your job this week. Haha.
Bucked an east wind all the way to Ohio... I'll bet it changes and I buck a west one all the way home... Canoes have that effect even when not in the water.
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03/26/2018 11:16PM |
housty9: "Should I change my plans for May tenth Whitewolve?
"
Where are you heading for on the 10th??
We just got another 5-6 inches of wet snow in the Ely area, adding to the snow already on the lakes that have a lot of ice on them.
Other than the next two days being fairly warm, the temps until April 9th are looking to be cold, and we will not lose much if any ice by that time.
Things could change rapidly (warm and rainy) but I'm getting a bit nervous about ice out by the opener???
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03/27/2018 07:21AM |
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03/27/2018 09:03AM |
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03/27/2018 08:43AM |
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03/27/2018 09:24AM |
nctry: "WhiteWolf: "TheGreatIndoors: "Okay WhiteWolf, any updates from the weather gods? "
Been away from the weather since late last week and just starting to get back into it. I will try and put something together for an extended outlook (10+ days) for MN/WI early this upcoming week. "
Sure, you step away from it and it all goes to heck in a hen basket. Haha. Not get the warm-up going... That's your job this week. Haha.
Bucked an east wind all the way to Ohio... I'll bet it changes and I buck a west one all the way home... Canoes have that effect even when not in the water."
What part of the lovely state of Ohio did you get to visit?
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03/27/2018 11:46AM |
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03/27/2018 04:57PM |
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03/31/2018 04:15PM |
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03/31/2018 07:46PM |
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03/31/2018 08:19PM |
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03/31/2018 10:25PM |
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03/31/2018 10:23PM |
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04/01/2018 06:54AM |
I have wondered for the past couple years how the increased irrigation and green in western Nebraska and eastern Colorado due to draining of the aquifer (also known as irrigation) might be impacting weather in the upper Midwest. My presumption is the higher humidity tends to cool air and there is a large area involved. Anyone talking about this in the weather field?
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04/01/2018 04:57PM |
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04/01/2018 09:03PM |
bhouse46: "Possible tangent and I apologize. The Greenland block thing reminded me.
I have wondered for the past couple years how the increased irrigation and green in western Nebraska and eastern Colorado due to draining of the aquifer (also known as irrigation) might be impacting weather in the upper Midwest. My presumption is the higher humidity tends to cool air and there is a large area involved. Anyone talking about this in the weather field?"
This a is good question. I'am not aware of any influence this irrigation may have on a macro scale when it comes to the weather/climate - but that doesn't mean that someone else does or is aware of it. My .02 of weather knowledge would say that the effect is too small to be felt much outside of the immediate area but would definitely have an impact locally in it's own micro climate. Probably not looked at in depth since the population in that area is pretty sparse. One thing that may influence things is the "greener" landscape. This would have an influence on the albedo effect (amount of suns energy absorbed or reflected), slightly, compared to the "less green" it used to be.
I will keep my ears open to this subject and let you know if hear anything about it. Thanks the question.
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04/01/2018 10:28PM |
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04/02/2018 08:13AM |
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04/02/2018 11:10AM |
Pinetree: "A late ice out usually means a poor walleye opener.
"
That's amateur weekend anyway
I quit going on opener years ago.
I go stream trout fishing while everyone crowds to the lakes
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04/02/2018 11:16AM |
mooseplums: "Pinetree: "A late ice out usually means a poor walleye opener.
"
That's amateur weekend anyway
I quit going on opener years ago.
I go stream trout fishing while everyone crowds to the lakes"
That is what I did for years. Go stream trout fishing. Also if around home(Brainerd-Mille lacs) I never go opening weekend and the crowds. You have all season and if lucky pick nicer weather.
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04/02/2018 10:34AM |
we gotta suck it up, and do it!
none of this non camping stuff! we need camping! and fishin! :)
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04/02/2018 10:45AM |
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04/02/2018 04:11PM |
Some places broke records by 15-20F!!!!
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04/02/2018 06:15PM |
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04/04/2018 08:31PM |
Jaywalker: "So, for those of us going up in late May, and who need ice in our drinks, we might not have to worry about portaging extra pounds in coolers, right? "
Exactly - just set your drink on the ice to chill while you use the auger.
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04/07/2018 08:58AM |
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04/07/2018 03:28PM |
Pinetree: "A few years ago a small lake around home,entire small lake covered, had like a foot of ice still and a little honey comb. Well it got real windy and the whole lake went out in a day. That was exceptional. I think it got like close to 80 degrees F.
Now Gunflint you would think it would be more gradual. But you get those hot temps with a wind ice goes extremely fast."
Agree- but Gunflint is deep and big. It takes time to freeze- it takes = time to unfreeze. But that is up to who decides "ice out". IMO - no way you walk across that lake in 2 days and fall through within 12 hours of each... I think the records are a little "out of whack" but I wasn't there.
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04/07/2018 01:17PM |
Pinetree: "Right now I say we will be 2 weeks behind normal iceout in much of the state. "
Lakes on the N side of the Metro are right now on or past median ice out. The lake I grew up on usually lost it's ice around April 2-4th. I don't see it being out by the 20th this year - something similar to 2013 which broke records for many lakes in the area. S.MN lakes-- many are a shoe in to break records.
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04/07/2018 01:52PM |
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04/07/2018 01:57PM |
Pinetree: "Brainerd area is around April 20th normal iceout. I was looking at 1975 iceout and it was as cold as this a and a little colder ice went out like May 5 even up north. Must of warmed up big time the last few weeks of April that year. If it gets to 6 degrees and a wind,a lot of ice melts in a day.
I see June 3, 1936 is the latest listed for Gunflint and May 22, 1950 for Burntside."
Yeah- that June, 1936 for Gunflint is unreal. It's didn't used to be in the records for Gunflint. Personally- I don't see how someone can walk across a lake that size 2 days before and then have ice out.
1950 is not in the records for Gunflint. Weather wise- the spring was even colder. I'am guessing Gunflint was near the same ice out as 1936, if not later. But that is just speculation.
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04/07/2018 03:00PM |
Now Gunflint you would think it would be more gradual. But you get those hot temps with a wind ice goes extremely fast.
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04/07/2018 01:36PM |
I see June 3, 1936 is the latest listed for Gunflint and May 22, 1950 for Burntside.
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04/07/2018 03:24PM |
Gunflint: May 25th
Both predictions will rely on a lot of luck to be out that early.
The only hope to be any earlier than these predictions, is a week or more of 50+ degree temps, wind, and rain!
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04/07/2018 03:28PM |
Pinetree: "A few years ago a small lake around home,entire small lake covered, had like a foot of ice still and a little honey comb. Well it got real windy and the whole lake went out in a day. That was exceptional. I think it got like close to 80 degrees F.
Now Gunflint you would think it would be more gradual. But you get those hot temps with a wind ice goes extremely fast."
Agree- but Gunflint is deep and big. It takes time to freeze- it takes = time to unfreeze. But that is up to who decides "ice out". IMO - no way you walk across that lake and in 2 days have ice out... I think the records are a little "out of whack" but I wasn't there.
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04/07/2018 05:47PM |
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04/07/2018 10:05PM |
I have chosen two "southern" lakes with a rather good history of records - Madison by Mankato and Clear by Waseca.
Then I've chosen three northern lakes by Ely with more spotty records - Shagawa, Burntside, and Fall. By choosing three lakes, at least one of them has a ice out date for each year.
I count the ice being out if all the records available show ice out. So in 1940, as an example, Shagawa had no ice out records, but Burntside went out on the 5/11 and Fall on 5/6. So that counts as ice out by or on 5/11. This would not count as ice out by 5/7, since Burntside still had ice on it.
So, there's a 100% chance of ice out for the (Ely area) northern lakes by or on 5/22.
97.6% chance by/on 5/15.
88.0% chance by/on 5/10.
77% chance by/on 5/5.
55% chance by/on 4/30.
25% chance by/on 4/25.
But what about years like this year where it's already 4/7 and there's no ice out in Minnesota?
It drops the chances, but not by as much as you may think. For example, if the southern lakes have ice out on or after 4/15, there's still a 71.4% chance that the northern lakes have ice out by 5/10.
What I think happens is that ice thawing around Ely has an average start around early April - before that, the average temperatures are still below freezing. So a cold weather snap in early April may delay prime thawing for southern lakes, but doesn't have much of an effect on northern lakes.
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04/07/2018 10:39PM |
1941: Madison/Waseca ice out on 4/28 and 4/27. Burntside and Fall on 5/5 and 5/3.
1950: Madison and Waseca out on 4/16 and 4/18. Burntside and Fall on 5/22 and 5/19.
1979: Maddison/Waseca ice out on 4/20 and 4/19. Shagawa and Burntside on 5/15 and 5/12.
2014: Madison Waseca ice out on 4/14 and 4/12. Shagawa and Burtnside on 5/11 and 5/13.
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04/08/2018 12:24AM |
A few days ago, a retention pond near our house re-froze.
This is April ?
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04/08/2018 05:56AM |
I-Falls -3F (breaking the record set of 2F in 1989 and latest into the year a negative F temp has been reported at I-Falls since records begun there in 1895)
Ely- -6F. (breaking record of 6F set in 2016)
Cook Cty Airport- -8F - no reliable records for this location.
Crane Lake -8F - no reliable records for this location
Hibbing -- -4F (breaking the record of 3F set in 1972)
Brainerd- 0F (breaking the record of 5F set in 1997
Duluth- 2F (breaking the record of 5F set in 1997
and near the end of the Gunflint at Tucker Lake---
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04/08/2018 05:05AM |
The most concerning thing now for those concerned about ice out in time for said trips (I have one May 22nd, but on a "current lake" so should , should be Ok) , and something I mentioned in OP back in mid FEB, is with the warmth (relative speaking) coming will push the storm track to the N into the Northwoods area, more typical of this time of the year. Most of the Northwoods has missed out on all the "fun" of the past 2 weeks. The potential added snowfall is really only going retard whatever warmth (talking on top of the ice on lakes) comes and in all actuality would be better if it would stay below normal (to a point) with sun and just have the strong sun/ length of days erode the snow pack and go from there to melt the ice. Added snow is really going to slow things down further. Watch your forecasts for the BWCA area over the next few weeks- it looks quite snowy.
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04/08/2018 08:43AM |
Also just looked at a temperature map of Alaska. Almost the entire state of Alaska is warmer than northern Minnesota.
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04/08/2018 10:12AM |
Now I'm debating whether or not to use my 2 personal days and plan a trip for the May 18 weekend. I think I'm going to have to wait until mid May to make that decision and hope I can get it approved at late notice if the ice is going to be out. I don't want to put in for them now and then not be able to go (lose them) because I can carry them over to next year.
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04/08/2018 05:46AM |
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04/10/2018 06:04AM |
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04/10/2018 10:00AM |
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04/10/2018 10:02AM |
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04/10/2018 10:10AM |
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04/10/2018 10:25AM |
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04/10/2018 10:22AM |
Canoearoo: "Weather underground is claiming 18-24! I don't believe it "I used intellicast they actually had about the same. If it comes it is going to be a wet branch breaking storm.
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04/10/2018 10:28AM |
AmarilloJim: "Going to be 90 here tomorrow."
I'm glad it's not 90 here. But I could do without the fluffy white flakes floating around.
The scuttle butt around here is this is shaping up to be very much like 2013. I knew of people ice fishing on the traditional opening day of soft water fishing that year.
It was the first year we moved our trip back a week. It was due to schedules and nothing more, but was in hindsight a great move. We still go in on the latter date now. I'm not overly concerned about ice out for that date.
If it doesn't warm up however we could be making some real history and replacing latest dates that were in 1964, and 1950 on a few lakes along with the 2013 dates.
It will be interesting at very least!
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04/10/2018 12:59PM |
Soledad: "From NOAA:
I love snow storms, the more snow and wind the better- this one will obviously let me down since the bullseye is currently real close to where I live. For today though I am filled with giddy anticipation. I feel like the Vikings are playing a playoff game again. ;)"
So true- if you want the snow, you do not want to be in the bullseye 4-5 days out!!! Rare that it happens to verify ,, but the anticipation is soooo fun!!! And can drive you insane on both sides of the spectrum.
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04/10/2018 01:59PM |
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04/10/2018 02:18PM |
I am under the impression that the pace of melting is fast once the low gets above freezing. So, assuming this happens on 4/25, can the ice melt in a week or two...
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04/10/2018 03:00PM |
TheGreatIndoors: "Is there more snow and ice this year than usual? If you look at peak ice thickness in an average year and compare it to this year, did 2018 produce more ice?
I am under the impression that the pace of melting is fast once the low gets above freezing. So, assuming this happens on 4/25, can the ice melt in a week or two... "
I would say not. It's just that the beginning of April and late March have been so cold. And that should answer your 2nd question-- the melting and such has not happened as is normal. It can melt 4/25 etc--- but we are going to need optimal conditions for it to melt in a week or two.
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04/10/2018 03:04PM |
Canoearoo: "I do love a good storm; snow or thunder. Weather can be very entertaining "
Canoearoo: "I do love a good storm; snow or thunder. Weather can be very entertaining "
This upcoming storm will be right up your alley. Trends are South---- but this time of year that usually means concern for areas that were in the bullseye 4-5 days out. (further N) One - if not- the most dynamic systems of the entire winter. Keep abreast of the weather through your favorite source and remember the following graphic is a "big guess" at this time- but shows the potential. I would not put on such a graphic in JAN, but since it's late in the year, just getting the info out for the potential due to the lateness in the season.
The S shift is concerning as it means the potential further N is "all in" later on.. Just giving you all what I think, that is all. I understand the naysayers and all being it's "spring" and all. If you can do better at this range, I'am all yours. AGAIN THIS IS VERY PRELIMINARY, AND WILL CHANGE--- JUST GIVING A HEADS UP. The amount of south shift of this system ( 24 hrs ago it was 200 miles further N, IT SHOUDLNT BEING MOVING S) , this time of year is not normal and very concerning and shows the overall strength of the system regardless of actual location .
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04/10/2018 10:39AM |
Mad_Angler: "What do the models say about the rest of April and early May?
"
Long story short-- islands of warmth in a sea of cold-- but , It "should" buck this trend by late April and overturn it by mid May and May should be above normal for many reading this. Winter to Summer anyone??
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04/10/2018 10:44AM |
Pinetree: "I see models have like north central(Mille lacs area) Minnesota getting between 12 to 20 inches of snow this coming weekend. Whitewolf is this possible? Wonder how far north this will go. We still have 15 inches of snow in the woods."
Yep. Wanted to wait on this one , as at times I think I'am too negative and let some else talk about it.. I could post some maps that would make you agree with me. (being too negative about Spring) let's wait a few more runs of the models before we get to uptight about this -- but yes-- what your forecasts show with intellicast etc.. are real as of this writing, if not underdone. But amounts for specific locations at this juncture are WAY too early. Just know that the potential exists for a big snow event.
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04/10/2018 10:55AM |
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04/10/2018 11:52AM |
Saturday the concern becomes heavy snow as deep cyclogenesis
occurs over the north central CONUS and a PV boot lifts across
the area. 10.00Z GFS and ECMWF solutions both bring a 2 to 2.5
FOOT swath of snow to parts of western and central MN, although
temporal and spatial differences are still present. Given the
impressive pressure gradient, winds look to be sustained at 30-40
mph with gusts approaching 50 mph from west into south central MN.
I love snow storms, the more snow and wind the better- this one will obviously let me down since the bullseye is currently real close to where I live. For today though I am filled with giddy anticipation. I feel like the Vikings are playing a playoff game again. ;)
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04/10/2018 12:02PM |
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04/10/2018 04:58PM |
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04/10/2018 07:11PM |
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04/10/2018 05:55PM |
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04/10/2018 07:50PM |
Might be snowshoeing to knife instead of paddling?
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04/10/2018 08:24PM |
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04/10/2018 09:24PM |
HighnDry: "The MN DNR put out a statement today that many northern lakes would likely still be iced-in for the spring opener."
Several of us living in northern Minnesota have been saying that for the last two weeks, but it appears that no one believes it until it comes from the DNR offices in St. Paul, 250 south of us!
Sheeeeeeeeesh!!!! :)
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04/12/2018 08:18AM |
Ice out dates listed on the MN DNR page for Saganaga Lake (1988-2017). Latest ice out recorded in that period is May 19th.
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04/12/2018 10:23AM |
Ice out statistics for Shagawa and Gunflint. Data goes further back on the Gunflint side, but more missing dates.
Given the way the distribution falls off abruptly just before the opener, I wonder whether the late ice and low temps (like this year) is less important than the temps, rain, sun, and wind, just before ice out.
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04/13/2018 06:11AM |
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04/12/2018 10:04PM |
WhiteWolf: "Keep abreast of your forecasts for Wed the 18th. All eyes (except mine) are on the impending event. Hopefully- the 18th deal fails to materialize but the pattern we are trying to break seems to be a war of attrition. "
What the heck are you talking about?? THERE'S AN EVENT PREDICTED FOR THE 18TH?!!?!?!?!
...actually, I'm cool with the weather. It doesn't bother me when winter hangs on... It just makes those summer days that much better...
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04/13/2018 07:16AM |
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04/13/2018 07:30AM |
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04/13/2018 09:03AM |
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04/13/2018 09:43AM |
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04/13/2018 12:57PM |
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04/13/2018 01:22PM |
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04/17/2018 07:51AM |
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04/16/2018 01:15PM |
Here is a 10 day forecast. (I know that they are really just guessing that far out but it does look promising)
Ely 10 day
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04/16/2018 01:22PM |
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04/16/2018 02:49PM |
The Great Outdoors: "Mad_Angler: "It looks like Ely will get some good melting starting this Thursday and running for about a week. The spring sun is pretty hot. Hopefully, it makes some progress.
Here is a 10 day forecast. (I know that they are really just guessing that far out but it does look promising)
Ely 10 day "
About 3-4 of those warm days can be used to get rid of this 10 inches of snow we just got dumped on us last night!! :)"
You must of got dumped on late Saturday- Sunday like we did in the Mille lacs area?
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04/16/2018 04:25PM |
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04/16/2018 09:25PM |
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04/16/2018 09:43PM |
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04/30/2018 09:10AM |
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04/30/2018 01:08PM |
Are you sitting over spent fuel rods in Monticello? Its only 67F in Roseville.
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03/27/2018 04:59PM |
HighnDry: "Adam started an ice-out prediction thread if anyone is interested. Shagawa and Gunflint."
It's here.
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03/27/2018 06:31PM |
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03/27/2018 06:46PM |
So what do we have on the table for the next 3 weeks or so? More of the same. Remember- the following are not forecasts, (doesn't tell you how much below / above) just probabilities. But I can tell you from being in the field for 20 years that this is going to be well below normal and the first 10 days of April for many reading this in the Upper Midwest (I wrote about that (early APril) in another thread) is going to be coldest opening 1/3rd of April since 2007/2013 or even 1962. Also remember that the longer out a prediction is made for temps - the more those temps should be near climate normals based on length of the forecast. So the following are quite impressive and especially coming for this source.
Ok , some may say "but why?"-- how did long range forecasters know the above 45 days or more ago?? Even before the warmth of early March?
The key in this case and many long term forecasts of below normal in the winter/spring is a meteorological process called "atmospheric blocking". This blocking occurs over Greenland and extreme Eastern Canada and in layman's terms- forces cold Canadian air down over most of the Central and Eastern USA without much movement as the typical zonal flow (W to E) is interrupted by a more North to NW flow that keeps reinforcing the cold and only allows for a brief respite of above normal temps before the below normal temps resupply and and come again. Blocking is also a major factor in increased snow events in the same areas do to the amount of cold air available though the actual storms themselves are caused by others separate atmospheric processes -- MJO (Madden- Jullian- Oscillation) among others. So why is it that long term models can't see this and why it is utmost important to do your own homework and "put the time in" ?? A common finding among scientific studies is that these long-lived weather extremes are associated with recurrent atmospheric flow anomalies- in this case caused by blocking. Numerous studies have found that the poor forecast skill beyond a few days results principally from the inability of numerical weather prediction models to simulate the onset and evolution of blocking flows. Models can't pick up on it PERIOD. and neither will your local TV guy/gal unless they are in the 1%. Most local NWS will not eiter, but to be fair that is not either of their main priorities and takes a certain knack to be good at.
I do expect a pull back sometime mid April. But this type of blocking pattern just doesn't go away. Even if the block disappears - the results of it linger for sometime (30-45days) and that appears to be the case as we head into late April / early May. I do think May however will be warmer then normal as the results of blocking break down. Much like 2013. So there is hope. Some may ask why I post models if I don't really like them. Because they agree with me, that is why. Another tool that fits the pattern. You can slowly see the progress to warmer temps in the below, again, something that fits the pattern we are currently in and going to IMO. Thanks for reading.
APril-
MAY-
Week 5-
Week 6-
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03/27/2018 07:33PM |
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03/27/2018 07:35PM |
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03/27/2018 07:50PM |
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03/27/2018 09:41PM |
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03/28/2018 01:14AM |
The following video is from March of 2014 but the point is the same.
This guy does a good job describing the "Greenland Block"
It's also interesting that he mentions a study to see if reduction in sea ice in the Arctic has a "tie" to the Greenland Block. I have not seen any results of this study, but if true and concrete , you can expect colder Springs in the future due to the lack of sea ice comparable to normals ( W of Greenland) is most prevalent in the Spring then other times of the year. But this could also be a "feedback" mechanism that drives itself from itself since a Greenland Block drives very warm air relative to normal to the W of Greenland and thus less ice. The numerical weather models I mentioned above have this weakness of a "feedback issue" and making things to be much worse then they really will be (snowstorms etc.) because the model is programmed to only have limited amount of data ingested compared to the near infinite amount of data that drives the real atmosphere that can be studied by a human. Hence the need for somebody trained to tell you the differences and not an "app" on your phone that changes more than a politician. A trained mind must be put to it,and not just a computer. A lot of time/effort
Sorry for the ramble.
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03/28/2018 02:41AM |
Canoearoo: "Wonderful, thanks for the update. I assume this means little or no severe weather this spring? "
For the Upper Midwest- early Spring , yes. But likely above severe weather where the air masses battle in the South and Southeast- especially tornadoes come in 2 weeks or so. Then our chances will increase mid/late-April and on. It will take awhile to get back to normal or above for tornadoes nationwide- but all it takes is one big several day outbreak and I see that coming early/mid April. See maps below. Also remember that a major misnomer of severe weather is that you need hot and humid air. The truth is - and the driver of most weather- is cold, dry and dense air that combats anything warmer then itself. That warmer air can be 65F compared to 50F for the cooler air and doesn't have to be humid like most think humid is. Cold air ALWAYS wins, but the battle means severe weather and how bad is determined by several other factors too detailed for this thread. Just because there is no warm/surface air (of what we think is warm) doesn't preclude a severe weather outbreak as long as the upper atmosphere thinks otherwise. Remember where the "severe" weather comes from. Not the surface. But above. Or better off- a mix in bad outbreaks.
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03/28/2018 03:18AM |
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03/28/2018 07:10AM |
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03/28/2018 07:53AM |
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03/28/2018 07:57AM |
The Great Outdoors: "EP 16, changed that trip to the fall, heading in EP 37 the 25th May.housty9: "Should I change my plans for May tenth Whitewolve?
"
Where are you heading for on the 10th??
We just got another 5-6 inches of wet snow in the Ely area, adding to the snow already on the lakes that have a lot of ice on them.
Other than the next two days being fairly warm, the temps until April 9th are looking to be cold, and we will not lose much if any ice by that time.
Things could change rapidly (warm and rainy) but I'm getting a bit nervous about ice out by the opener???"
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03/28/2018 08:17AM |
Thanks for the severe weather explanation. I'll take this cold over the tornadoes from last spring.
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03/28/2018 01:03PM |
WhiteWolf: "...
So what do we have on the table for the next 3 weeks or so? More of the same. Remember- the following are not forecasts, (doesn't tell you how much below / above) just probabilities. But I can tell you from being in the field for 20 years that this is going to be well below normal and the first 10 days of April for many reading this in the Upper Midwest (I wrote about that (early APril) in another thread) is going to be coldest opening 1/3rd of April since 2007/2013 or even 1962. ...
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So... If I'm reading this correctly, it will be a pretty late ice out. It doesn't look like the ice will even begin to melt for another few weeks. If it starts to melt in mid April, it will be at least early May before it is gone.
What are you putting your odds for a liquid opener?
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03/28/2018 01:26PM |
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04/08/2018 05:30PM |
One morning a guy walked out and was ice fishing near middle of the lake.
I thought "I don't think I'd have the nerve"
The next day, the ice went out.
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04/08/2018 02:38PM |
Pinetree: "There will be very few or no leeches for walleye opener. It takes awhile forthem to get active once the ice leaves the ponds.
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That is not correct. I used to trap leeches commercially in my youth. We caught several thousand pounds per season. I even had an albino leech in the traps once. The hard part was sticking your hands in the cold water every morning to pick up the traps.
We set our leech traps the same day the ice went off the ponds. Leeching season only last a few months and by the forth of July they become inactive and soggy in warm water.
Leeches will b e available as soon as the ice is off the small pothole lakes and ponds in NW MN.
Tom
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04/08/2018 07:33PM |
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04/09/2018 07:32AM |
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04/09/2018 07:51AM |
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04/09/2018 05:40AM |
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04/09/2018 09:06AM |
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04/09/2018 12:30PM |
so far through the first 8 days of April the avg temp at Minneapolis has been 23.1F
That is exactly 19.0F below normal over those 8 days compared to the running averages over the last 30 years in the climate record (1981-2011). And the coldest start to any April ever recorded since this stuff was "recorded". So, how does April 18' in Minneapolis stand up to the record years through the first 8 days??
Coldest April's (all 30 days) ever recorded in MPLS-
35.8F 1874
36.9F 1950
37.0F 1907 I will stop here for time issues. But plenty of other cold APrils'
So the first 8 days at MSP have been 23.1F for avg temp. Some 12F colder then the record of 1874. Big deal some would say. As you have to figure in the last 22 days of the month and that April really warms up. I would agree and did the math.
Avg temp in April through the first 8 days-
2018- 23.1F
1874 26.0F
1950 34.3F
2013 38.0F
Folks- those are the heavy hitters for years with late ice out around the Metro and most of MN. The coldest start to any April on record through at least 8 days is this year - by far. ( I have done the simple Math =it goes beyond 10 days with the current forecast, if not longer.) A lot of temp needs to be made up to even get to normal. I would do (wish I could) the same but the records are sparse for the Northland.
Bottom line- The beginning of April of 2018 has never been this cold in the history of weather records for many reading.