Boundary Waters Quetico Forum :: Listening Point - General Discussion :: 2025 Ice Out Contest
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Kendis |
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sns |
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Mocha |
i love this time of spring!!! |
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WhiteWolf |
Web Cam 25" of ice left on 4/22. Seems about on avg for an Early May ice out. |
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Freeleo1 |
Hungry Jack May 7 |
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Pinetree |
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sns |
mooselake: "Thanks for the info. Where do you find the satellite images?" Copernicus / Sentinel |
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Tryin |
sns: "mooselake: "Thanks for the info. Where do you find the satellite images?" Thank you for posting this!!! I have been wondering why one of my internet acquaintances hasn't been moving much on his (not BWCA) trip. It looks like his access lake (and the trip lakes) were still completely iced up 6 days ago. |
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Pinetree |
Often the Quetico maintenance crew just flew in to get Prairie Portage ready for the year. One year after the hard day of work they were sitting at the end of the dock having a cold beer. People are so relaxed early on without the crowds. |
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kgkicker |
Hungry Jack 4/24 |
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pearsods |
Jack 5-2 |
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mooseplums |
May 21 |
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WhiteWolf |
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timatkn |
WhiteWolf: " Gonna be awhile " Wasn’t expecting 30 inches of ice! T |
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Eyegetter |
Ice out Jack - May 9 |
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Pinetree |
mooselake: "How many people want to change their dates after seeing the past 2 weeks? I have an opener trip for Basswood. Looking a lot like 2022 and 2023 when ice went out Thursday night into Friday morning both of those years I think. Appears it could be similar in 2025. Fingers crossed!"Once you get to about mid April temps really warm up fast,get some strong winds and ice goes fast. |
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Mjking4 |
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Cc26 |
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scat |
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Noluck |
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timatkn |
The longer days and change in the rays of the sun hitting the ice will still move ice out along. As Pinetree stated the ice can go quick. Get a week of sun or warm rain and that 27 inches of ice is gone quick. But the current weather report doesn’t look good. Those long term reports aren’t vey accurate so don’t hang your hat on it either, but it’s all we got for predictions. T |
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Speckled |
mooselake: "How many people want to change their dates after seeing the past 2 weeks? I have an opener trip for Basswood. Looking a lot like 2022 and 2023 when ice went out Thursday night into Friday morning both of those years I think. Appears it could be similar in 2025. Fingers crossed!" You've got nothing to worry about - Ice will be out on the Ely side before the end of the month and right around or just after the end of the month on the upper Gunflint There's something called "Thawing Degree Day". You can google it, it's a calc used to project Ice out. I've tweaked it a bit to take into account ice forming days and snow cover. If you're an excel geek and like math - you can play with it model against previous years until you get further dialed in...something to kill time with while taking a break at work. |
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Kendis |
(1) Anywhere with moving water is completely ice free. (2) The heavy snow of April 2 and two lighter snows since then have turned to slush on the lakes and has melted in some locations. (3) No open water on stillwater, although bare ice in some spots. (4) Ice thickness on the 15 acre lake I camped on was about 4 inches at the shoreline. (5) The 10 day forecast has a mixture of highs in the upper 30s, mid 40s, and low 50s including six days with at least 30% chance of rain. (6) Ice came right up to the shoreline at all lakes, including Moose, Tofte, and Fall. (7) Ice report from Arrowhead Outdoors on March 26 reported 20-30+ inches of ice remaining. We've had mostly days in the upper 30s since then except for the last couple in the upper 40s to lower 50s. (8) Lows continue to be below freezing overnight. (9) I saw multiple pickup trucks parked on the ice at Fall Lake. (10) Trails are a mixture of snow, ice, and mud. Gravel access roads are mushy. I will be going out to the SNF every weekend and will post updates. |
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Merlin0197 |
Hungry Jack 4/11 |
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Sundem2005 |
RMinMN: "As I drove alongside Lake Bemidji this morning I noticed that the ice had gone dark and had pulled away from the western shore. It doesn't take very many windy days to start breaking up the ice once that happens. Almost 60 here today too Bemidji won't have ice for long. sicotteh: "Better not be right, my Mudro lake trip is on may 14th. Rain over the next week will melt a lot of ice IMHO." There will be a path over thick ice and/or chopped through thin ice for you, if there is ice, I go in Mudro the 13th. |
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Pinetree |
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Pinetree |
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LindenTree |
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Soledad |
This was Saturday: |
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Zimm |
Jack: May 6th |
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mooselake |
Jack- May 1st |
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WhiteWolf |
Seagull Outfitters ( realized old photo from 4/10) |
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ScottMacFish |
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Lifer |
Hungry Jack Lake May 1 |
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bfurlow |
Hungry Jack - April 21 |
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mikedor |
Hungry Jack - April 13, 2025 |
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DanMN |
Hungry Jack - April 17, 2025 |
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grizzlyadams |
Shagawa - April 25 |
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CornettKB2005 |
Hungry Jack - April 16, 2025 |
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portagerunner |
Hungry Jack 5-4 |
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Dreamer |
Jack April 17 |
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indianleader |
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CarpetKicker23 |
Jack-5/10 |
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MikeinMpls |
HJ: May 2 Mike |
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WhiteWolf |
Shagwa median ice out is TODAY 4/28. Records go back to 1965. Hungry Jack is May 5th-- records only back to 2004. |
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ducks |
Hungry Jack May 7 |
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philhartman5886 |
- Shag: April 20th - Jack: April 24th |
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Badnessochadness |
Jack: April 26 |
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queticoahl |
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4216yzf |
Jack May 7th |
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WhiteWolf |
Someone did post on Eric's youtube post about a May 8th entry into Seagull and being "concerned". I didn't want to ruin his trip. But--- I would be concerned about a May 8th entry into Seagull ANY year. Why? The avg ice out for SAG (close to Seagull is May 6th) . This year is going to be very close to that. Other than Lakers- I have no clue why fisherman plan trips around the "opener" in MN on big/ deep BWCA lakes- especially E for Walleyes. -- Wait till the end of May or even early June. I have spent countless hours on 39F water in PRIME walleye area on openers thinking I was going to do good -- and VERY slow -- but then - 2 weeks later BINGO!!-- learned my lesson. I would not push it this year for (fishing) opener in the C or East BW for eyes-- unless river lakes or shallow and stained -- or maybe LLC or FAr Western Lakes. (shallow) Sorry this went into fishing- but many look at ice out for fishing - not only ice out- but down the road. Just my .02 |
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Speckled |
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Pinetree |
Lot of ice up there yet-The Gunflint area is a different world up there. Tuscarora lodge |
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NEIowapaddler |
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WhiteWolf |
Will be fun to watch. Glad I have a trip early (May 13th) but on a high current lake/river lake away from Superior. Near Normal ice out seems likely. Things can change fast - especially with rain and overnight lows above 0C. Some lakes are going to need it for ice out by fishing opener. One more significant snow event (not seen as of this post) would almost certainly support a later than normal ice out. Poplar Lake ) For those without F-book. Solid 2'+ on April 6th-- in or near BWCA from homebase in ELY> april 6th Ely area BWCA ice area update |
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JimmyJustice |
Enough ice talk! It's golf season. League starts tomorrow. :) I will enjoy the 50 degree weather cause its the only weather I got. Shag April 27 Jack May 7 |
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WhiteWolf |
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LindenTree |
NEIowapaddler: "Shag 5/10, Jack 5/14" Contest entry date ended April 1st, but you are going to be pretty close if not a little early per my observations from Duluth. I got a South Kawashiwi River permit for May 7, I think the river will be open by then. |
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LindenTree |
WhiteWolf: "16F this AM in Hibbing- tied a record last set in 2022 Can hardly imagine how much lower our temps could/would be this spring if we had normal or above snow cover this year. |
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Speckled |
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sns |
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Kendis |
Paved roads are completely clear of ice and snow. Gravel access roads are mushy, with standing water at low spots and snow/ice in shaded spots. Driving was not a problem in my Subaru Outback (however that stacks up against your vehicle). Weather for the last week has been highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s with rain and sleet for a few days. Yesterday was highs in the low 30s and snow. The 10 day forecast has highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s (possibly even upper 50s on April 27, one week from today) with three days that have at least a 40% chance of rain. I will be camping in the SNF (probably) or BWCA (very unlikely) next weekend. Will report back then. |
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desertcanoe |
I assume the rivers go first, and smaller lakes sooner than large. Is there a region that tends to be earlier? 4 of us have May 1st to 5th off. If the ice is out, we're canoeing. If not, we'll hike the NCT. From what I'm seeing here, I'm thinking I should get out the hiking boots. But sure would love to be in a boat. Little Indian Sioux South maybe? |
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Kendis |
desertcanoe: "Curious if a person wants to go in early if there are patterns about where the ice goes out first? The west end (Ely) tends to melt earlier than the east (Gunflint Trail). Are you planning to stay at an outfitter the night before, or rent gear from one? If yes, I'd just ask them to call you (or you call them) a day or two before so that you can plan accordingly. If not, then I'd probably pick LIS South as the best bet. I think the most likely lake EP near Ely is Lake One, since the lake and downstream Kawishiwi River are narrow(er) with moving water. As of last weekend and yesterday, hiking trails I've been at in the SNF are a combination of mud and ice. I haven't been to the Kekekabic (NCT) trailhead near Snowbank this year, but that trail is very shaded and rocky. If you chose it, good luck and post a trip report! |
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wayneIII |
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WhiteWolf |
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Duluth MN 1218 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 MNZ011-012-282000- North St. Louis-Northern Cook and Lake- Including the cities of Ely and Isabella 1218 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE BOUNDARY WATERS CANOE AREA WILDERNESS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... Severe thunderstorms are expected to affect the Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness this afternoon and evening. The storms may produce damaging winds, large hail, frequent cloud-to-ground lightning, and locally heavy rainfall. Thunderstorms could happen as early as 3 PM with the most likely time for thunderstorms between 5 and 8 PM Monday. Now is the time to prepare in case thunderstorms threaten. Campers should take extra precautions now in order to secure campsites and make a plan in case of severe weather. For strong winds, try to keep your tent away from large or decayed trees. For large hail, use your well-tied down canoe or tent for shelter. For lightning, sit on your personal floatation devices or sleeping pads and avoid putting your tent on top of exposed tree roots to minimize your risk. Monitor NOAA Weather Radio for updates and possible warnings. $$ Wolfe |
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Mocha |
checking out the up north webcams this morning. the view at gunflint lake looks a bit chilly. |
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scat |
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Pinetree |
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sns |
Vosburgh's web cam |
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sns |
Pinetree: "Moose lake will be ice free by Saturday evening." Looks to be completely open now, at least in the view of the Vosburg web cam. It’s time! |
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desertcanoe |
Paddled LIS North on Thursday, made our way around and through ice on Shell and Little Shell Friday and got stopped by impassable ice on Lynx - despite our best icebreaker technique :). Made another run at Lynx on Satuday, still no go. Went up to Loon and it was 4/5 ice-covered so we set up camp on the site to the east just as you come out of the mouth of LIS. And watched the ice go out! By Sunday noon it was 2/3 gone from the lake. |
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ducks |
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Mocha |
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mooselake |
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okinaw55 |
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pauer75 |
Jack: May 2nd |
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Ozzmann44 |
Hungry Jack 5-5-25 |
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egknuti |
HJ: April 28 |
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LindenTree |
Jack - May 6 |
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RodPortage |
Hungry Jack: 4/16 |
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petehal |
H: 4/19 |
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Speckled |
Hungry Jack - 04/26 |
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clinegc |
Hungry Jack May 2 |
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OgimaaBines |
Hungry Jack 5/3 |
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Hosedragger76 |
Jack. April 16 |
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sicotteh |
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fishforfun66 |
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CanoeViking |
Jack: April 24 |
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kgrove |
Jack: April 22 |
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Lisalacombe |
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kanood |
Hungry Jack - April 27th |
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sns |
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adam |
Think you can predict when the ice will go out? Join our Ice-Out Contest and guess the exact dates the ice will disappear from Shagawa Lake (west) and Hungry Jack Lake (east). How to Enter: - Submit your best guess for each lake’s ice-out date on this thread. - The winner is the one with the two closest guesses and first to post that combination. - One guess per person. No editing posts. Enter by April 1st. The Prize? A softwater or hardwater hat of your choice Winners announced: Once both lakes are ice-free! Think you’ve got what it takes? Enter now and claim your title as the 2025 Ice-Out Champion! Good luck! Let the thaw begin! |
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Karl |
Jack - May 4 |
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HangLoose |
Hungry Jack 4/13 |
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KawnipiKid |
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forestkeeper |
Some years it has gone out only in June, so with global warming, I'm going with: May 15 May 20 |
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RamseyBigSandy |
Hungry Jack - May 3 |
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Papa09 |
H/J 5/4 |
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oldzip |
Hungry Jack: May 6 |
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Arkansas9 |
Hungry Jack - 29 April 2025 |
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WhiteWolf |
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Duluth MN 209 PM CDT Tue Apr 1 2025 MNZ020-021-020715- /O.CON.KDLH.WS.W.0010.250402T0000Z-250403T0000Z/ Southern Lake-Southern Cook- Including the cities of Grand Marais, Two Harbors, and Silver Bay 209 PM CDT Tue Apr 1 2025 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 9 and 13 inches except between 12 and 16 inches for the higher terrain of the North Shore and ice accumulations around a light glaze. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph. * WHERE...Southern Cook and Southern Lake Counties. This includes the Tribal Lands of the Grand Portage Reservation. * WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Widespread blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility leading to near whiteout conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Wednesday morning and evening commutes. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. Call 511 or visit www.511mn.org for Minnesota road information. |
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WhiteWolf |
2013 / 2014 even come to mind though extreme at this point. Just my thoughts. |
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Speckled |
Sunday was just south of Ely - Faster current areas on the Stony River were clear, slower moving areas still ice covered. Lakes were wet and slushy on top from the rain, but still plenty of ice. Couple more weeks before we start seeing movement on the lakes is my guess. |
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RMinMN |
Note: Lake Bemidji is not in the BWCA and may go ice out earlier but this is a hint. |
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WhiteWolf |
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WhiteWolf |
Mjking4: "Interested to know if anyone has the ice out dates for these lakes last year, for reference Shagwa 2024 Ice out April 7th Hungry Jack 2024 Ice Out April 18th |
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NEIowapaddler |
LindenTree: "NEIowapaddler: "Shag 5/10, Jack 5/14" I don't really care about the contest, I just like to be right ;) I have a Wood Lake permit for May 18. Still feel pretty confident things will be open by then, but definitely looks less certain than it did a month ago. |
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mooselake |
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WhiteWolf |
12F this AM Grand Marais Airport. records here not as reliable--- Likely single digits down the Gunflint..... |
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Pinetree |
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sicotteh |
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desertcanoe |
We're not planning on staying or renting from an outfitter. I'd hoped to but didn't find one offering lodging on April 30 along the Echo Trail. We'd originally looked at going in at Round Lake. Tuscarora Outfitters said they're closed then. But I'd scrapped that anyway when things seemed to look better to the west, as you suggest. We currently have a permit for Stuart River, with the plan to go to Stuart Lake, through the PMA on Sterling Creek, then down the Beartrap. That might all be okay, but then once we get to Iron....and then LLC.... maybe not. We did that in April one year and paddled through snow, but no ice. This year looks later though. Thanks for the info on SNF hiking. It's always an adventure! |
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RMinMN |
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Speckled |
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wayneIII |
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Kendis |
Lake One: Open water about 30 ft, another 30 ft of sketchy ice. Huge ice rafts and big open water spots in the distance. Almost all dark ice. Snowbank: A couple of feet of open water, then solid looking ice. Mixture of light and dark ice. Moose: 10 ft of open water, then solid looking ice. A lot of dark ice. Ojibway: 10 ft of open water, 10 ft of sketchy ice, the rest dark. Tofte: A couple of feet of open water, then solid looking ice. Mostly light ice. Fall: 20 ft of open water, another 10ft of sketchy ice, a mixture of light and dark. Temperatures for the last week have been in the upper 40s to mid 50s with overnight lows in the low 30s and some light rain. The 10 day forecast has highs in the 50s and lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Four days with at least a 50% chance of rain. This is probably my last report. I will be camping on Lake One next Wednesday. |
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Pinetree |
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Pinetree |
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WhiteWolf |
webcam |
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Kendis |
I went to some of the Fernberg entry points this afternoon. Moose: Only a little open water. Fall: Ice is out between the boat ramp and Mile Island and as far as I could see. Farther west there are some areas with a lot of ice still that can be seen from the road. Lake One: Ice is out. The 10 day forecast includes several days with highs in the low 60s to low 70s with overnight lows in the 30s and 40s. |
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Pinetree |
Kendis: "Ely had an all day rainstorm yesterday with hours of heavy rain in the afternoon and evening. Yes I see the USFS talking about road washouts today. |
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Pinetree |
Mocha: "just checked out the cook county mn webcams. looks like the west end of gunflint opened up overnight, the gunflint lodge staff is bringing the docks back across the lake to hook up to the main cribbing which is somewhat under water. What is neat to canoe around with just a small piece of ice floating around. Also the water seems so clean this time of year. |