Enter the 2025 Ice-Out Contest!

Think you can predict when the ice will go out? Join our Ice-Out Contest and guess the exact dates the ice will disappear from Shagawa Lake (west) and Hungry Jack Lake (east).

How to Enter:
- Submit your best guess for each lake’s ice-out date on this thread.
- The winner is the one with the two closest guesses and first to post that combination.
- One guess per person. No editing posts.

Enter by April 1st.

The Prize? A softwater or hardwater hat of your choice

Winners announced: Once both lakes are ice-free!

Think you’ve got what it takes? Enter now and claim your title as the 2025 Ice-Out Champion!

Good luck! Let the thaw begin!

ice out shagawa april 29 ,hungry jack april 30

Ice out Shagawa: April 23 Ice out Jack: April 25

Shag: April 21
Jack: April 22

Shagawa Lake - April 28th
Hungry Jack - April 27th

Shagawa April 14
Jack. April 16

ice out shagawa april 25 ,hungry jack april 27

Shag: April 15
Jack: April 24

May 1 for Shag, May 6 for Jack

Shagawa- April 28th
Jack- May 1st

Shag - April 28
Jack - May 4

ice out shagawa april 24 ,hungry jack april 26

Shag: May 3rd
Jack: May 2nd

Shagawa 4/15
Hungry Jack 4/13

Shagawa Lake April 29
Hungry Jack Lake May 1

April 16th

Shagawa - April 19th
Hungry Jack - April 21

Shagawa 5-2-25
Hungry Jack 5-5-25

Shagawa - April 19, 2025
Hungry Jack - April 13, 2025

Shagawa - April 19, 2025
Hungry Jack - April 16, 2025

Shagawa - April 14, 2025
Hungry Jack - April 17, 2025

Hello - Doug Beal here.
Some years it has gone out only in June, so with global warming, I'm going with:
May 15
May 20

Shagawa, April 17. Hungry jack, April 19

Shagawa - April 26
Hungry Jack - May 3

Shag 4-27
Jack 5-2

Shagawa 4/20
Hungry Jack 4/24

Shagawa 4-26
Hungry Jack 5-4

Shagawa 4/19
Hungry Jack 4/11

Shag: April 26
HJ: April 28

Shag - April 29
Jack - May 6

Shag April 30
Hungry Jack May 7

Ice out
- Shag: April 20th
- Jack: April 24th

S: 4/15
H: 4/19

Shagawa: 4/20
Hungry Jack: 4/16

Shag 5/1
H/J 5/4

Shag: April 25
Jack: April 26

Shag April 12
Jack April 17

Shagwa - 04/19
Hungry Jack - 04/26

Shagawa April 29
Hungry Jack May 2

4-26 west 4-27 east

Shagawa Lake: April 30
Hungry Jack: May 6

Shag-5/3
Jack-5/10

Shag: April 28

HJ: May 2

Mike

Shagawa -26 April 2025
Hungry Jack - 29 April 2025

Ice out Shagawa: April 24 Ice out Jack: April 25

Shag Apr 30th
Jack May 7th

Shagawa 4/29
Hungry Jack 5/3

Hungry Jack - May 1
Shagawa - April 25

Both this friday. March 28th.

Shagwa May 4
Hungry Jack May 7

Lakes so far ice free in Minnesota are 8-18 days ahead of normal.

Ice out Shag - May 5
Ice out Jack - May 9

Big deal that is going effect ICE OUT- happens every year. Expect another one further mid month. AVG ICE OUT AT BEST for BWCA Lakes-- especially E


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Duluth MN
209 PM CDT Tue Apr 1 2025

MNZ020-021-020715-
/O.CON.KDLH.WS.W.0010.250402T0000Z-250403T0000Z/
Southern Lake-Southern Cook-
Including the cities of Grand Marais, Two Harbors, and Silver Bay
209 PM CDT Tue Apr 1 2025

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations
between 9 and 13 inches except between 12 and 16 inches for the
higher terrain of the North Shore and ice accumulations around a
light glaze. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Southern Cook and Southern Lake Counties. This includes
the Tribal Lands of the Grand Portage Reservation.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Widespread
blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility leading to near
whiteout conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the
Wednesday morning and evening commutes. Gusty winds could bring
down tree branches.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. Call 511 or visit
www.511mn.org for Minnesota road information.

and with resulting snow cover will come below avg temps. Mid month has best chance of seeing above normal temps- if not - expect late ice out. Don't have a "date" in the matter but the "meteorology" says late ice out for the Northland.
2013 / 2014 even come to mind though extreme at this point. Just my thoughts.

Lots of ice yet-, in fact some lakes in E. BW have max ice thickness for the winter season which is rare or gained ice since late March ( usually mid/late March is max)

Will be fun to watch. Glad I have a trip early (May 13th) but on a high current lake/river lake away from Superior. Near Normal ice out seems likely. Things can change fast - especially with rain and overnight lows above 0C. Some lakes are going to need it for ice out by fishing opener. One more significant snow event (not seen as of this post) would almost certainly support a later than normal ice out.


Poplar Lake
)
For those without F-book. Solid 2'+ on April 6th-- in or near BWCA from homebase in ELY>
april 6th Ely area BWCA ice area update

Seagull Outfitters (evening of 4/7/25)

WW

Enough ice talk! It's golf season. League starts tomorrow. :) I will enjoy the 50 degree weather cause its the only weather I got.

Shag April 27
Jack May 7

Shag 5/10, Jack 5/14

NEIowapaddler: "Shag 5/10, Jack 5/14"

Contest entry date ended April 1st, but you are going to be pretty close if not a little early per my observations from Duluth.
I got a South Kawashiwi River permit for May 7, I think the river will be open by then.

Shag: April 24th
Jack: May 6th

LindenTree: "

NEIowapaddler: "Shag 5/10, Jack 5/14"

Contest entry date ended April 1st, but you are going to be pretty close if not a little early per my observations from Duluth.
I got a South Kawashiwi River permit for May 7, I think the river will be open by then."

I don't really care about the contest, I just like to be right ;)

I have a Wood Lake permit for May 18. Still feel pretty confident things will be open by then, but definitely looks less certain than it did a month ago.

How many people want to change their dates after seeing the past 2 weeks? I have an opener trip for Basswood. Looking a lot like 2022 and 2023 when ice went out Thursday night into Friday morning both of those years I think. Appears it could be similar in 2025. Fingers crossed!

mooselake: "How many people want to change their dates after seeing the past 2 weeks? I have an opener trip for Basswood. Looking a lot like 2022 and 2023 when ice went out Thursday night into Friday morning both of those years I think. Appears it could be similar in 2025. Fingers crossed!"

Once you get to about mid April temps really warm up fast,get some strong winds and ice goes fast.

Wow not looking good…night time temps at freezing or below for the next 14 days.

The longer days and change in the rays of the sun hitting the ice will still move ice out along.

As Pinetree stated the ice can go quick. Get a week of sun or warm rain and that 27 inches of ice is gone quick.

But the current weather report doesn’t look good. Those long term reports aren’t vey accurate so don’t hang your hat on it either, but it’s all we got for predictions.

T

Cool by me. I get to watch the loons in my local lakes in northern Il for a while longer till the lakes open up north. They have some sort of instinct that lets them know. I have 5 loons, 2 pairs to enjoy on 3 lakes so far. The lakes by me have been open for 3-4 weeks, they stop here. Couple years ago there was a herd of 20-30 pelicans that hung out on some forest preserve lakes for a week or so. That was a new one, maybe they will stop by for a visit again.

Interested to know if anyone has the ice out dates for these lakes last year, for reference

mooselake: "How many people want to change their dates after seeing the past 2 weeks? I have an opener trip for Basswood. Looking a lot like 2022 and 2023 when ice went out Thursday night into Friday morning both of those years I think. Appears it could be similar in 2025. Fingers crossed!"

You've got nothing to worry about - Ice will be out on the Ely side before the end of the month and right around or just after the end of the month on the upper Gunflint

There's something called "Thawing Degree Day". You can google it, it's a calc used to project Ice out. I've tweaked it a bit to take into account ice forming days and snow cover. If you're an excel geek and like math - you can play with it model against previous years until you get further dialed in...something to kill time with while taking a break at work.

I live in Ely and was out in the SNF yesterday. I stopped by some entry points off of the Fernberg Rd on the way home. I don't have an auger so take these observations as you will.

(1) Anywhere with moving water is completely ice free.
(2) The heavy snow of April 2 and two lighter snows since then have turned to slush on the lakes and has melted in some locations.
(3) No open water on stillwater, although bare ice in some spots.
(4) Ice thickness on the 15 acre lake I camped on was about 4 inches at the shoreline.
(5) The 10 day forecast has a mixture of highs in the upper 30s, mid 40s, and low 50s including six days with at least 30% chance of rain.
(6) Ice came right up to the shoreline at all lakes, including Moose, Tofte, and Fall.
(7) Ice report from Arrowhead Outdoors on March 26 reported 20-30+ inches of ice remaining. We've had mostly days in the upper 30s since then except for the last couple in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
(8) Lows continue to be below freezing overnight.
(9) I saw multiple pickup trucks parked on the ice at Fall Lake.
(10) Trails are a mixture of snow, ice, and mud. Gravel access roads are mushy.

I will be going out to the SNF every weekend and will post updates.

Stopped by our cabin on Marble in the SNF - plenty of Ice, 20+, but it will go fast. Remember - ice melts from both directions, these high & long sunny days, penetrate the ice and put alot of heat into water underneath.

Lot of ice up there yet-The Gunflint area is a different world up there. Tuscarora lodge

This will not help.

Was over in Grand Rapids area Saturday. Ponds were clear, smaller lakes looked close.

Sunday was just south of Ely - Faster current areas on the Stony River were clear, slower moving areas still ice covered. Lakes were wet and slushy on top from the rain, but still plenty of ice. Couple more weeks before we start seeing movement on the lakes is my guess.

Rockwood Lodge- ouch.




Seagull Outfitters ( realized old photo from 4/10)

Gonna be awhile

Mjking4: "Interested to know if anyone has the ice out dates for these lakes last year, for reference
"

Shagwa 2024 Ice out April 7th

Hungry Jack 2024 Ice Out April 18th

WhiteWolf: " Gonna be awhile "

Wasn’t expecting 30 inches of ice!

T

As much as it seems "late" - I think ice out in BW will be near normal. But that seems to strike fear in some. The BW is a far cry from S.MN lakes which on avg loses ice at least a month earlier- if not more.(esp this year) Totally different climate in the Arrowhead of MN compared to S.MN -- see the Koppen-Geiger climate map. One different class which is huge.
Someone did post on Eric's youtube post about a May 8th entry into Seagull and being "concerned". I didn't want to ruin his trip. But---
I would be concerned about a May 8th entry into Seagull ANY year. Why? The avg ice out for SAG (close to Seagull is May 6th) . This year is going to be very close to that. Other than Lakers- I have no clue why fisherman plan trips around the "opener" in MN on big/ deep BWCA lakes- especially E for Walleyes. -- Wait till the end of May or even early June. I have spent countless hours on 39F water in PRIME walleye area on openers thinking I was going to do good -- and VERY slow -- but then - 2 weeks later BINGO!!-- learned my lesson.
I would not push it this year for (fishing) opener in the C or East BW for eyes-- unless river lakes or shallow and stained -- or maybe LLC or FAr Western Lakes. (shallow)
Sorry this went into fishing- but many look at ice out for fishing - not only ice out- but down the road.
Just my .02

As I drove alongside Lake Bemidji this morning I noticed that the ice had gone dark and had pulled away from the western shore. It doesn't take very many windy days to start breaking up the ice once that happens.

Note: Lake Bemidji is not in the BWCA and may go ice out earlier but this is a hint.

May 16th
May 21

Better not be right, my Mudro lake trip is on may 14th. Rain over the next week will melt a lot of ice IMHO.

RMinMN: "As I drove alongside Lake Bemidji this morning I noticed that the ice had gone dark and had pulled away from the western shore. It doesn't take very many windy days to start breaking up the ice once that happens.


Note: Lake Bemidji is not in the BWCA and may go ice out earlier but this is a hint."

Almost 60 here today too Bemidji won't have ice for long.

sicotteh: "Better not be right, my Mudro lake trip is on may 14th. Rain over the next week will melt a lot of ice IMHO."

There will be a path over thick ice and/or chopped through thin ice for you, if there is ice, I go in Mudro the 13th.

16F this AM in Hibbing- tied a record last set in 2022
12F this AM Grand Marais Airport. records here not as reliable---
Likely single digits down the Gunflint.....

WhiteWolf: "16F this AM in Hibbing- tied a record last set in 2022
12F this AM Grand Marais Airport. records here not as reliable---
Likely single digits down the Gunflint.....


"

Can hardly imagine how much lower our temps could/would be this spring if we had normal or above snow cover this year.

It seems like you get the north 1/3rd of the State is acting on its own in weather. Brainerd area ice-out is 7-10 earlier than normal this year.

Moose went from bright white to pretty dark in the last 24 hours...I'm sure it's still got at least 18-24" of ice, but there is some hope.....

My guess is Moose is out before the end of the month.

I was at Fall and Ojibway Lakes off the Fernberg yesterday. Ice has retreated a couple feet from shore at most locations, with a couple feet of very thin ice beyond that. Moving water remains ice free. I saw two locations on Fall with open water near the Fall Lake Campground. I also saw a guy near the Fall Lake boat ramp walk out on the ice and start testing ice thickness with his auger. Seemed like the ice was plenty thick out there at about 1/4 to 1/3 the length of the auger.

Paved roads are completely clear of ice and snow. Gravel access roads are mushy, with standing water at low spots and snow/ice in shaded spots. Driving was not a problem in my Subaru Outback (however that stacks up against your vehicle).

Weather for the last week has been highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s with rain and sleet for a few days. Yesterday was highs in the low 30s and snow. The 10 day forecast has highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s (possibly even upper 50s on April 27, one week from today) with three days that have at least a 40% chance of rain.

I will be camping in the SNF (probably) or BWCA (very unlikely) next weekend. Will report back then.

Curious if a person wants to go in early if there are patterns about where the ice goes out first?

I assume the rivers go first, and smaller lakes sooner than large.
Is there a region that tends to be earlier?

4 of us have May 1st to 5th off. If the ice is out, we're canoeing. If not, we'll hike the NCT.
From what I'm seeing here, I'm thinking I should get out the hiking boots. But sure would love to be in a boat.

Little Indian Sioux South maybe?

desertcanoe: "Curious if a person wants to go in early if there are patterns about where the ice goes out first?


I assume the rivers go first, and smaller lakes sooner than large.
Is there a region that tends to be earlier?


4 of us have May 1st to 5th off. If the ice is out, we're canoeing. If not, we'll hike the NCT.
From what I'm seeing here, I'm thinking I should get out the hiking boots. But sure would love to be in a boat.


Little Indian Sioux South maybe?"

The west end (Ely) tends to melt earlier than the east (Gunflint Trail). Are you planning to stay at an outfitter the night before, or rent gear from one? If yes, I'd just ask them to call you (or you call them) a day or two before so that you can plan accordingly. If not, then I'd probably pick LIS South as the best bet. I think the most likely lake EP near Ely is Lake One, since the lake and downstream Kawishiwi River are narrow(er) with moving water.

As of last weekend and yesterday, hiking trails I've been at in the SNF are a combination of mud and ice. I haven't been to the Kekekabic (NCT) trailhead near Snowbank this year, but that trail is very shaded and rocky. If you chose it, good luck and post a trip report!

Thanks Kendis.

We're not planning on staying or renting from an outfitter. I'd hoped to but didn't find one offering lodging on April 30 along the Echo Trail.

We'd originally looked at going in at Round Lake. Tuscarora Outfitters said they're closed then. But I'd scrapped that anyway when things seemed to look better to the west, as you suggest.

We currently have a permit for Stuart River, with the plan to go to Stuart Lake, through the PMA on Sterling Creek, then down the Beartrap. That might all be okay, but then once we get to Iron....and then LLC.... maybe not.

We did that in April one year and paddled through snow, but no ice. This year looks later though.

Thanks for the info on SNF hiking.
It's always an adventure!

Sawbill outfitters posted on Facebook yesterday showing them drilling through the ice in the middle of Sawbill Lake and they reported 26" of ice remaining.

Update from Rockwood on Poplar-

Web Cam

25" of ice left on 4/22. Seems about on avg for an Early May ice out.

At the cabin this week. We're on Marble Lake south of Ely. Alot of Ice melted today, it's quite dark and broke away from the shoreline. I suspect it'll go out this week yet. Ely area lakes are typically only a day or two behind. Gunflint...another week.

I came here with the same question. Im going on around May 7...wondering if the rivers would be open or some of the smaller lakes!

I visited the EPs off the Fernberg today.

Lake One: Open water about 30 ft, another 30 ft of sketchy ice. Huge ice rafts and big open water spots in the distance. Almost all dark ice.

Snowbank: A couple of feet of open water, then solid looking ice. Mixture of light and dark ice.

Moose: 10 ft of open water, then solid looking ice. A lot of dark ice.

Ojibway: 10 ft of open water, 10 ft of sketchy ice, the rest dark.

Tofte: A couple of feet of open water, then solid looking ice. Mostly light ice.

Fall: 20 ft of open water, another 10ft of sketchy ice, a mixture of light and dark.

Temperatures for the last week have been in the upper 40s to mid 50s with overnight lows in the low 30s and some light rain. The 10 day forecast has highs in the 50s and lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Four days with at least a 50% chance of rain.

This is probably my last report. I will be camping on Lake One next Wednesday.

Much appreciate the detailed info. Sounds like I have a fighting chance to be canoeing up there on some lakes in 9 days or so