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WhiteWolf
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04/26/2018 10:23AM
Just put the Snowtrekker away into "warm" storage.

Long story short- certain long term teleconnections around the globe are pointing to a likely early arrival of Fall/Winter here in about 5-6 months. One of those is a slight El Nino ( a Modoki El Nino due to it's location in the Central Pacific ) is forecast to develop by next winter. If that happens , previous Springs that had a very cold (like this) Spring almost always have an early onset of Fall/Spring with the onset of a El Nino , along with other teleconnections that are in step around the globe. In other words, very short growing seasons etc. is expected this year for the Upper Midwest. What be too long now and the days will be getting shorter and the shadows longer.....


 
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inspector13
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04/26/2018 10:51AM

I’m too old to be cheated out of spring-summer-fall.

Gadfly
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04/26/2018 11:27AM
That's good news for those of us who like to get a winter trip in as early as possible in December.
Jaywalker
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04/27/2018 11:12AM
I'm glad for you posted this warning of an early winter here, Whitewolf. With so many in the area having just finished shovelling out from a very late season blizzard, and so many doubts about whether the lakes will thaw for fishing opener, I fear if you'd posted this under General Onformation or Trip Planning some might be trying to run you out of the forum!
Minnesotian
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04/29/2018 03:05PM

Thanks for the advanced warning.
WhiteWolf
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05/02/2018 10:45AM
Jaywalker: "I'm glad for you posted this warning of an early winter here, Whitewolf. With so many in the area having just finished shovelling out from a very late season blizzard, and so many doubts about whether the lakes will thaw for fishing opener, I fear if you'd posted this under General Onformation or Trip Planning some might be trying to run you out of the forum!"

Yep- I have to be careful ( the winter guy that I'am) where I post stuff. Sure I love to canoe in the BW/Q etc, but I love winter more.

Another thing I will only admit here--- only in low 70's here, but the dewpoint has been stuck in the mid 60's for about a day. Had the windows open for a little this morning after a fresh rain-- but that wasn't cool enough and I had worked up a sweat cleaning the gutters and eavspouts from the Silver Maple red junk--- so yeah-- on came the A/C
Just one more good cold front before the dreaded summer arrives? O:)
Minnesotian
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07/03/2018 09:44AM

Whitewolf,
Just checking in to see if your early indicators from April are still looking like an earlier winter? Thanks.

07/11/2018 11:13PM
Is it too early to commit to snow again for the winter camping symposium;)?
WhiteWolf
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07/23/2018 07:31AM
Minnesotian: "
Whitewolf,
Just checking in to see if your early indicators from April are still looking like an earlier winter? Thanks.


"


Been away from the weather world for awhile on VAC-- so I will check into it for you as far as the early winter. One thing that is quite likely is that the warmest (hottest) weather is behind most of us reading this. The rest of July and Aug looks rather mild compared to the heat of the early Summer. This "should" (again have to look into it) extend into the Fall if I did my homework right earlier this year. The Modoki El Nino is on track and this should bare fruit to my prediction earlier this Spring, but more time needs to be spent digging as the wavelengths that bring the weather have changed from the Spring to the Summer. I still think I'am on to something.

I will post with a "pre" Winter Outlook soon.
WhiteWolf
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08/08/2018 04:13AM
I will put out some thoughts on the upcoming winter in "some" detail in about a week. Things are coming together for a nice winter. Some hints include-- early start (as stated earlier this Spring) followed by a pushback of warmth in DEC (please give me a break on this, it may late NOV or early JAN ) followed by below normal in JAN/FEB. The Pacific Ocean temps (crucial to our winters-- esp deep S Pac) are going as I thought earlier and this should/IS leading to a Modoki El Nino for the upcoming Winter. (google Modoki EL Nino for some hints).

I will get into analog years (previous years) that we have seen in similar teleconnections across the globe to what I "think" is going to transpire. As many would think, it's difficult to do at this range, even with much experience, but it can be done better than most people think (esp if you follow the typical media sources) -- and in the next week (preliminary) and by NOV 1 (final) I hope to hone in. One thing is certain-- temps are easier to predict at this range compared to snowfall-- in any pattern- on a broad prospective.

The following video is good for those that REALLY want to get into this stuff. Though , I do not agree with all they say--- they do a good job of laying the basics. I will also add that the lack of Tropical development in the ATL thus far ( in fact the ATL ocean is the coldest it's been in a LONG TIME) is also a big influence (though not as big as PAC weather) for weather in the Upper Midwest. The combo is a major driver -- especially late Winter.



Winter 18-19 outlook

This was recorded in June. Things are pretty much the same, but several, minor changes have occurred since. Will update soon and what they are (loss of time now) and what it means.
Enjoy the Weather. It's the only Weather you got.

Gadfly
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08/08/2018 08:48AM
It is sounding like a good winter to me, thanks for the update.
WhiteWolf
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09/05/2018 05:40AM
With frost possible/likely over the Arrowhead and N.MN tonight thought I would throw out some "frost" stats courtesy of the NWS in Duluth.


Some frost stats: At International Falls, the temperature last fell
to 34 on August 2, and last fell to 32 or colder on May 20 (31F);
current forecast is 34. At Hibbing, temp last fell to 32 on June 5;
current forecast is 35. At Duluth, the last time the temp fell to 32
or colder was May 20 (31F) and was last in the 30s on May 21 (38F);
current forecast is 41. And at Brainerd, the last time the temp fell
to 32 or colder was on May 20 (32F), which is also the last time it
was even in the 30s; current forecast is 42. The first 32F frost for
the Northland usually occurs around mid to late September for much
of northern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.


Also I will be "throwing" something out there that resembles a forecast soon for the upcoming winter. The key players on the field will be the El Nino developing in the equatorial Pacific and where exactly the warmest waters compared to averages set up shop. If they set up shop closer to South America (along the equator and about 15 degrees latitude either side of it) , that is a classic EL NINO that is known by many and usually results (based on other things around the globe) a rather mild/ less snow winter for the Northland. If the El Nino sets up shop more in the Central equatorial Pacific (Modoki El Nino, and subtle signs are pointing to this winning out) that tends to favor more cold and snow in the Northland, all other factors the same , compared to a classic El Nino. Another big player will be the ocean temps in the North Atlantic , but that is little too much info for now.

Pacific Ocean SS temps 9/3/18--



Pacific Ocean SS temps 7/2/18-



Again the warmer the Central Pacific can get compared to averages compared to areas further E towards the South American coast are crucial. This can (along H20 temps in the North Atlantic - esp late winter) set up favorable storm tracks along with less intrusions of mild Pacific (think Chinook winds or BIG thaws) air for the Northland and more chances of Arctic intrusions following large storm systems.

right now it appears that for the Upper Midwest the further East you are in the region the greater chance of above normal snow and below normal temps. The opposite is true for areas West.

More in a few weeks.

"The time will come when winter will ask what you were doing all summer." -- Henry Clay
Pinetree
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09/08/2018 10:15PM
Its amazing the tug of war various elements involved in determinig what happens. You would actually think there would be some really extremes popping up,but the earth is fairly balanced in the tug of war as of now.
WhiteWolf
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09/29/2018 01:20PM
Automated Surface Weather stations are reporting snow this afternoon across much of Central MN . This after many saw a frost/freeze over the past few mornings. It will not be long now folks for those that enjoy the white and cold!!!!!
Jaywalker
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09/29/2018 03:44PM
Huge change just today. I'm definitely starting to think of options for my first winter New Year's trek, and my need to finish up on one or two DIY gear projects than sat idle all summer.
 
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