Boundary Waters Quetico Forum :: Listening Point - General Discussion :: 2023 Ice Out Predictions
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AlexanderSupertramp |
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gravelroad |
gravelroad: "adam: "I would like to be optimistic and think we are 8 weeks out from ice out." Hee hee. ;-) |
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Canoearoo |
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AlexanderSupertramp |
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ducks |
Gunflint May 10. |
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Pinetree |
TonyJames4: "Hi all, You will be find. 99% of Brainerd lakes are open. |
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Pinetree |
I always watch to see it opening up around the Islands |
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Buhlie |
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Banksiana |
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gravelroad |
Ely Area Ice Conditions Update - May 2 |
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Pinetree |
Jaywalker: "Before anyone gets too worried about whether or not the ice will be out by their entry date, I thought I would post this little reminder from last year. Note seven days before the first photo was taken, there was a post that ice on Moose, Snowbank, and Lake One was averaging 22-24 inches. 14 days after that post, Moose was ice free at least on the south end. " Yes, even on delayed warm-up, once it warms into the 50's and 60's and a wind ice-out time catches up or speeds up. |
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ducks |
HighnDry: "Good news! Rockwood posted that Poplar still had 17 inches of Ice on Saturday and are guessing Saturday the 13th as ice out there. Bearskin Lodge and Outfitters posted that they think it’s very unlikely that ice will be out on East Bearskin by the 13th for fishing opener. They said they even called everyone with reservations for the campground this upcoming weekend that they may not be able to get into the campground either because of the snow piled up at the entrance from the plow. Sawbill posted 25 inches of ice on Friday. |
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denik |
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deepwater |
denik: "Good morning all! We've got a May 11th permit for Snowbank Lake, and we're trying to decide if we should just cancel it now, or try to go for it. Watching the cams for Fall & Moose have been encouraging, but I'm not sure if that's even a close indication of what's happening on Snowbank. Does anyone up there have info on current conditions for Snowbank? Already talked to the outfitter, and the best answer they could give us is that it's making progress and might be out by then." This stuff happens every year. People are worried that the ice won't be gone and more often than not, it is. If it were me I would just go up and figure it out. You will have a good time either way. Have fun! |
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LindenTree |
May 15 Gunflint lake |
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bennojr |
of the Ely area entry points to go out. As of yesterday, I hear Kawishiwi Lake Road is not passable. Here on Mitawan, near Isabella, the lake is still 90% ice covered. |
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airmorse |
ducks: "HighnDry: "Good news! Going to be some cold cold water for a while when the ice finally melts. |
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TuscaroraBorealis |
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BigTim |
You may borrow my donkey Mike. |
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WhiteWolf |
And likely to challenge all time records ( snow depth for Duluth) with more snow almost certain over next day or so. KDLH 120855Z 09015KT 1/2SM R09/P6000FT -SN BLSN OVC010 M03/M05 A2982 RMK AO2 SLP122 SNINCR 1/45 P0003 60010 T10331050 58015 SNINCR 1/45 means one inch of new snow fell in the last hour with 45" on the ground. Simply amazing. I have been in the field for nearly 25 years and have never seen an airport measure nearly 4' of snow on the ground. Sure it happens out west at elevation and all- but different deal here in the Upper Midwest. Here are the Top 10 high extreme snow depths for Duluth -- have a feeling 1965 ( mid March) has met it's maker. (3/11 and 3/12/2023 are not yet in the CLIMO) -- also go back to my previous post on daily records for snow depth for March for Duluth. They are beating those like a rented mule. |
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KawnipiKid |
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HighnDry |
May 13 Gunflint lake |
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TuscaroraBorealis |
BigTim: " Lol |
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Zulu |
Gunflint Lake - May 5 |
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TonyJames4 |
Anyone been up to Moose or Fall Lake recently? Curious how the ice is in person. Hard to get a good reading from the webcams. Appears the ice has taken a beating the past few days. I have a big group coming up for the walleye opener. Have permits for the 12th. Any input would be helpful. Thanks! |
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Kendis |
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Frenchy19 |
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sns |
Yesterday's Sentinelhub Sat image was particularly poor, and there's no time stamp to show when it was taken, but it looks like there was still a raft of ice in the largest open area north of Baird Island. It looked like you could probably paddle to American Point or Hook Island. Basically, it's go time. |
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jacobf |
sns: "Per outfitter, the main part of Sag had some ice two days ago but was expected to go off yesterday or today. I was just looking at this too. This is from yesterday (May 14) at 12:30 PM CST. There are still some large chunks in the deeper lakes, but lots of lakes look clear. |
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schweady |
May 7 Shagawa May 18 Gunflint |
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RedLakePaddler |
Got another blizzard on the way! Carl |
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WhiteWolf |
Duluth #6 Brainerd #2 (Brainerd easily gonna get #1, Duluth needs another 10" or so.) DLH area snowfall records |
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Pinetree |
WhiteWolf: "NWS Duluth area snowfall records-- Thanks, right now we have about 28-30 inches on the ground in Brainerd. This sure doesn't seem like a record tho. At least what has been on the ground at one time I know has been a lot more. Maybe meltdown is the difference? I know in past years I couldn't see the top of fence posts and snow was extra deep on the roof. Not that bad this year. I think Brainerd shifted location where snow is checked also. Great year for skiing cross country over 100 days this year. Thanks for the info. |
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WhiteWolf |
Pinetree: "WhiteWolf: "NWS Duluth area snowfall records-- Snowfall and snow depth are both myopic in how they are measured. I have no doubt about your recollections- but official snow depth is measuresd at 12Z time (7am now - 6am before time change) - that can throw people off . The whole deal - sadly - is not apples to apples. Measuring snow and snow depth - for more in-depth -- check this out -- measuring snow / depth (IN-DEPTH) :O) |
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Grizzlyman |
We have not yet hit 45* in the Norrhern suburbs. Blaine airport had one day recorded at 44*… other than that we’ve only hit 40 a handful of times. Looks like tomorrow might be our last shot for March- though admittedly the long range forecast has been pretty spotty… Question: Has this ever happened? Have we ever NOT hit 45* in March?? I realize this is dependent on location obviously… but really anywhere in the state not hitting 45* at least once in March seems like an impossibility… |
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Speckled |
Speckled: "April 16th - Ely side Clearly overly optimistic. |
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Pinetree |
Weird year, below all that snow the ground really isn't frozen. Most lakes by April 20th are ice-free in Brainerd. Were still making ice this year. It wasn't a cold winter, just the same all the time. |
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pswith5 |
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WhiteWolf |
KDLH 121655Z COR 06014G26KT 1/4SM R09/2400V4500FT -SN FZFG BKN009 OVC015 M03/M06 A2983 RMK AO2 PK WND 06032/1634 SLP126 SNINCR 1/55 P0003 T10331056 |
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YetiJedi |
Frenchy19: "Never. The winter from hell will never end." Ha! Might seem like that at times! Technically, that warmth of the wind coming from the nether regions you mention might cause a much earlier ice-out! |
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WhiteWolf |
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WhiteWolf |
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HayRiverDrifter |
With the deep snow, we have no frost here in Western WI. I would expects a number of positive effects of this. Much more of the melt should soak into the ground as oppose to run off. Also, I suspect the lack of frost may cause the ice along the shorelines to melt sooner than if there was frost. |
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Stumpy |
We are going from a late Spring into early Autumn and Winter. ;) |
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SouthernExposure |
Ely - April 29th Gunflint - May 8th Just a SWAG. SE |
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LindenTree |
"That may seem obvious. ... But there are a lot of factors involved. How thick the ice is. Snow depth. Wind. The size of the lake. ... Rain can be a big factor; it really speeds it up," Downing said. "But we found that the most critical factor is thawing-degree days." In other words, how warm it gets each day and how often it gets warm. Thawing-degree days are figured on a complicated formula: Add the daily high temperature to the daily low temperature, divide by 2 and then subtract 32. For every positive number, those are thawing-degree days. So if the air temperature is an average of 10 degrees above freezing during a day, that accumulates 10 thawing-degree days. (You don't need to know that formula; the ice-out widget does it for you.) The widget starts measuring any thawing-degree days in January. The number should pick up in February, speed up in March and rocket up in April. Expert predicts a late ice out. |
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TreeBear |
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Stumpy |
Noon April 29 |
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Maiingan |
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Kiwi |
Trip planned for May 7 to Gabbro and Bald Eagle. Outfitter feels we should be good to go. Any advice or opinion from the veteran paddlers? Do we expect flowing water in lakes and accessible portages by then? Appreciate any insight. |
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AlexanderSupertramp |
Maiingan: "Vermilion still has 18" of ice. 10-day forecast says nights below freezing." Soooooo you're saying there's a chance.... |
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Kendis |
Kiwi: "Folks, good evening. Here is the ice report as measured on Sawbill on April 26 (two days ago): 31" total 8" is compacted snow 23" is ice of varying quality The 10 day forecast as of April 28 is mostly for highs in the upper 30s to low 50s. Lows are at or below freezing. Last year was much colder for much longer, and I had to cancel a trip with entry date May 6. Actual ice out was something like 1-2 weeks after that. I would guess you just barely make it. |
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sunnybear09 |
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Pinetree |
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HighnDry |
Ice fields on the lake. It's getting there. Bet that water is ?? cold! |
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Jaywalker |
Once the ice starts to pull back from the shore ice out is not too far off. Refer back to my chart of Moose Lake above. If I remember my science correctly, ice basically melts from the bottom up on lakes. When sunlight penetrates to the water it warms via the greenhouse effect and starts to melt and rot the ice from the bottom up. This happens due to the sunlight getting through. Warm air temps mainly help to eliminate the reflective effect of the snow - warm air is not doing much to melt the ice from the top down. Once you see dark spots on the lake, plenty of sunlight is getting through. |
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Banksiana |
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Soledad |
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gravelroad |
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Grizzlyman |
I can’t take another mid-late may ice-out. :) |
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WhiteWolf |
32" on the ground in DLH.. 2" hour rates. METAR: KDLH [Duluth Intl Arpt] METAR: KDLH 012055Z 06014KT 1/4SM R09/3500V4500FT -SN BLSN VV012 M07/M09 A2982 RMK AO2 PK WND 04026/2003 SLP123 SNINCR 2/32 P0002 60006 T10671094 53007 |
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yogi59weedr |
It's gonna b a late April ice out. I know it's not up there but...... |
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WhiteWolf |
but Duluth is challenging all time snow depths for early March. Most on the ground for the 2nd of March (official snow depth is taken at 6am CST) is 36". 29" as of noon today. The SNINCR 1/29 at the 1755Z ob is 29" on the ground. Still snowing hard as of last ob at 2pm (1955Z) KDLH 011955Z 07015G28KT 1/4SM R09/4000V6000FT -SN BLSN VV015 M07/M09 A2980 RMK AO2 PK WND 07028/1950 SFC VIS 1/2 SLP115 P0002 T10671094 KDLH 011855Z 07016G25KT 1/4SM R09/2800V3500FT -SN BLSN VV010 M06/M08 A2979 RMK AO2 PK WND 07029/1807 SLP111 P0002 T10611083 KDLH 011844Z 07018G23KT 1/4SM R09/3000V3500FT -SN BLSN VV010 M06/M08 A2979 RMK AO2 PK WND 07029/1807 P0002 T10561083 KDLH 011755Z 06016G23KT 1/4SM R09/3000FT SN BLSN VV008 M06/M08 A2980 RMK AO2 PK WND 07028/1737 SLP114 SNINCR 1/29 P0005 60025 T10561078 11044 21061 53002 alot can change in 6 weeks - but the Arrowhead is dealing with a top 90% of all time snow depth ( some areas running 4' above " normal" since 2008) as of this writing and the snow machine is far from done and a below avg to much below March forecasted for temps. Ouch. Another back loaded winter. Even with this - I don't see ice out later than maybe a week past avg's? It will come down to April as March is about written in the book |
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analyzer |
I was fishing by myself, nearly had the lake to myself too. Caught 134 crappies from 9:30 to 2:30. I love spring ice fishing. |
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Jaywalker |
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bennojr |
Today I see a hint of open water on the far shore. I expect that when mitawan goes out lakes like gabbro, Bald eagle, perent, and Isabella will be out as well. Of the four lakes nearest me mitawan is the last to go. Send me an email and I'll send a pic. |
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Mapmaker |
The screenshot is showing the Fall Lake area from yesterday as an example. |
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bloody stump |
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Banksiana |
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Jaywalker |
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Banksiana |
sns: "Banksiana: "East arm of Burntside opening up. First session of pick-up ultimate last night in Ely. Spring is here." Mondays at 6:00, Whiteside park. Start time moves earlier in the fall, eventually lighted discs are employed. Then snow. Anyone welcome all levels of skill play, co-ed, all ages. I do play though at 61 its a bit of a farce (endless repeat of Little Feat lyric- "you know that you're over the hill when your mind makes a promise your body can't fill"). |
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Kendis |
JimmyJustice: "Kendis: "May 13, just in time." There, fixed it for you. :-) |
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HighnDry |
MN DNR Ice Out map However.... LaTourell ice update |
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JimmyJustice |
Kendis: "JimmyJustice: "Kendis: "May 13, just in time." Brilliant. :) |
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denik |
deepwater: "denik: "Good morning all! We've got a May 11th permit for Snowbank Lake, and we're trying to decide if we should just cancel it now, or try to go for it. Watching the cams for Fall & Moose have been encouraging, but I'm not sure if that's even a close indication of what's happening on Snowbank. Does anyone up there have info on current conditions for Snowbank? Already talked to the outfitter, and the best answer they could give us is that it's making progress and might be out by then." Well, we tried to go for it and failed. We planned to paddle the shoreline to get to one of the portages, but the ice was too thick & too close to shore. It ended up being a long-distance dinner date instead. |
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YardstickAngler |
Andy at Tuscarora reports Round Lake is out and significant portions of Sag and Seagull are open. |
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sns |
jacobf: " That's a great image - what are you using / where are you finding that? |
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jacobf |
sns: "jacobf: " This particular one is from Google Earth Engine, but you can get similar results in the Sentinel Hub EO browser. |
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sns |
jacobf: "sns: "jacobf: " Interesting...my expereince with sentinelhub is that it is considerably lower resolution than what you've grabbed from GEE. You use it professionally? |
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jacobf |
sns: "jacobf: "sns: "jacobf: " I do use it professionally, but it’s the same data and tools that anyone can access. Send me an email through my profile and I can share the workflow in either platform to get that kind of output. |
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Kendis |
sns: " When you look at a smaller area of interest, the 10m pixel size becomes more prominent. The less you zoom in, the less the pixel size matters. |
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HighnDry |
HighnDry: "May 6 shagawa Ely Well, I was way off. Shagawa was listed as May 8th ice-out. Gunflint is still apparently not ice-free. MN DNR Ice-Out Map |
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pastorjsackett |
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tumblehome |
Earliest ice out for camping was April 1 in 2013 Latest was some time in mid May. By that time the sun is too strong and the ice loses. Tom |
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airmorse |
May 8th Gunflint |
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HighnDry |
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papalambeau |
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sns |
Canoearoo: "In honor of Baby Yoda (Grogu) I will go with May the 4th " Since Baby Yoda is taken, I'll go with the First of May in honor of Jonathan Coulton. |
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Kendis |
Canoearoo: "In honor of Baby Yoda (Grogu) I will go with May the 4th " Always. |
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Banksiana |
TreeBear: "Well, my optimistic Clearwater May 4th permit is hoping for a May 3rd or before ice out! Haha. Everything east of the Gunflint is big and deep and should ice out faster than the smaller chains. The Royal River on the other hand is of greater concern..." In my experience big and deep (think Burntside) are considerably behind the smaller chains which tend to go out as much as a week earlier than big and deep. |
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Pinetree |
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AKSTIGMO |
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dschult2 |
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dogwoodgirl |
Grizzlyman: "I’d like to start lake season sooner rather than later so I’ll say April 18th :) Ely April 22 gunflint. Meanwhile, 150 miles south of Gunflint Lake.....LOL |
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Basspro69 |
pastorjsackett: "1000 years from now."Lolololololol |
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Basspro69 |
May 9th Gunflint 3 pm for both |
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Pinetree |
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TuscaroraBorealis |
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nctry |
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Stumpy |
I watched every day as the ice turned black. One day there was an ice fisherman on a 5 gallon bucket, in the middle of the lake. I couldn't believe it ! The ice went out the next day. |
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OMGitsKa |
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Grizzlyman |
Been watching these. Looks to me like this weekend hopefully. Looking very dark and spongy on Vermilion in many spots. |
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JimmyJustice |
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TuscaroraBorealis |
Kendis: "April 1." The day is still young!!!! :) |
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gravelroad |
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ForestDuff |
Weather conditions and snow depth played a key role, as well as aging participants.(Man and Dog) One thing I've always thought about during late March trips is do I need to worry about bears yet. I guess so, pic is from the Ely area early this week. Even Yogi is ready for ice out. |
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Banksiana |
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ForestDuff |
Sawbill Ice and Snow Depth Facebook Report |
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Kiwi |
Any updates on ice and open water at the Gabbro lakes? Anyone aware of direct observation from recent fly over? I guess I’m still in denial and not ready to cancel my trip !! |
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Pinetree |
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JimmyJustice |
JimmyJustice: "May 13, just in time." I will take my trophy now please. |
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Stumpy |
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Banksiana |
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sns |
Banksiana: "East arm of Burntside opening up. First session of pick-up ultimate last night in Ely. Spring is here." Funny, I never imagined there would be Ultimate in Ely. Good stuff. You play? Regardless, that's always a harbinger of spring! |
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Banksiana |
Stumpy: "What is ultimate ?"Ultimate! |
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gravelroad |
sns: "Pinetree: "Stumpy: "What is ultimate ?" No way in hell could I resist the urge to say: "What goes around, comes around." :-) |
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sns |
Pinetree: "Stumpy: "What is ultimate ?" It's come a long was since a parking lot in New Jersey in 1968. Current estimates are well over 5 million people play it all over the world. Today there is a Pro league with 24 teams (23 US + 1 CA); Minnesota is a strong team that is primarily owned by Omar Ansari, owner of Surly Brewing. Their season just started and they play home games at Seafoam Stadium at Concordia College in St Paul. It's a remarkably spectacular sport, and from time to time a play from an Ultimate game makes the ESPN Top-10 highlight reel. At least one NFL Hall of Famer played, albeit for one tournament and mostly for publicity. PS - looks like Moose Lake is just about ice-free! |
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Grizzlyman |
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Harv |
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HighnDry |
Has anybody been up the Gunflint recently to check on ice conditions on those lakes? |
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Pinetree |
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Pinetree |
Stumpy: "What is ultimate ?" I had zero idea also. |
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adam |
Throw out your best ice-out date prediction. DNR Ice Out History |
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WhiteWolf |
Cliff notes thus far, not much cold, but snow, epic snow ,may delay what would have been an early ice out This is not based on this week The pattern will likely repeat this further N |
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HighnDry |
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MikeinMpls |
Gunflint side: May 11. Mike |
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WhiteWolf |
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JimmyJustice |
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OMGitsKa |
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gravelroad |
adam: "I would like to be optimistic and think we are 8 weeks out from ice out." Hee hee. ;-) |
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WhiteWolf |
\MN peeps-- here are the top 6 snow events in Twin Cities 'recorded' history. This event should "easily" make Top 4. Enjoy the weather- it's the only weather you got. ********************************************************************** * TOP SIX SNOWSTORMS * * * FOR THE TWIN CITIES * * * ------------------- * * * INCHES * * * 1. OCT 31-NOV 3 1991 28.4 * * * 2. NOV 29-DEC 1 1985 21.1 * * * 3. JAN 22-23 1982 .. 20.0...NOTE CORRECTION NEEDED TO //NCDC-LCD//* * 4. JAN 20-21 1982 .. 17.4 * * * 5. DEC 10-11 2010 .. 17.1 * * * 6. NOV 11-12 1940 .. 16.8 * * |
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Speckled |
April 23rd - Gunflint side |
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Mocha |
MAY 10 GUNFLINT |
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YetiJedi |
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