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Boundary Waters Quetico Forum :: Listening Point - General Discussion :: 2023 Ice Out Predictions
 
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AlexanderSupertramp
05/02/2023 12:58PM
 
What's the snowpack like in Ely and close-by right now? I'm pondering a road trip up from Duluth this weekend to get some last minute items from Piragis and taking the doggo with for a hike afterwards. Maybe the Bass Lake Trail? Will I need my snowshoes still or can I boot it?
 
gravelroad
03/28/2023 07:14AM
 
gravelroad: "adam: "I would like to be optimistic and think we are 8 weeks out from ice out."



Hee hee. ;-)







"
















Hee hee. ;-)






 
Canoearoo
03/17/2023 11:20AM
 
In honor of Baby Yoda (Grogu) I will go with May the 4th
 
AlexanderSupertramp
03/28/2023 08:02AM
 
I've noticed at least in Duluth that despite lower than average temps, there has been more sunshine than at this time last year, and snow has been melting quicker than it did last year when we had basically zero sunny days. I'm picking May 5th and I think someone else did as well.
 
ducks
02/21/2023 06:26AM
 
Ely May 5
Gunflint May 10.
 
Pinetree
05/02/2023 06:00PM
 
TonyJames4: "Hi all,



Anyone been up to Moose or Fall Lake recently? Curious how the ice is in person. Hard to get a good reading from the webcams. Appears the ice has taken a beating the past few days. I have a big group coming up for the walleye opener. Have permits for the 12th. Any input would be helpful.



Thanks!"



You will be find. 99% of Brainerd lakes are open.
 
Pinetree
05/02/2023 06:03PM
 
Moose outlook


I always watch to see it opening up around the Islands
 
Buhlie
05/02/2023 06:19PM
 
Not BWCA but pert near. Not quite out yet but getting there……
 
Banksiana
05/02/2023 08:50PM
 
Heard first frogs tonight on the Echo Trail, still some snow in the woods and you could walk on the lakes (if you were chased and willing to jump the gap along the shore). Still. Frogs.
 
gravelroad
05/02/2023 08:18PM
 
Keep your auger handy …


Ely Area Ice Conditions Update - May 2
 
Pinetree
04/09/2023 02:58PM
 
Jaywalker: "Before anyone gets too worried about whether or not the ice will be out by their entry date, I thought I would post this little reminder from last year. Note seven days before the first photo was taken, there was a post that ice on Moose, Snowbank, and Lake One was averaging 22-24 inches. 14 days after that post, Moose was ice free at least on the south end. "


Yes, even on delayed warm-up, once it warms into the 50's and 60's and a wind ice-out time catches up or speeds up.
 
ducks
05/08/2023 06:32AM
 
HighnDry: "Good news!



Has anybody been up the Gunflint recently to check on ice conditions on those lakes?"



Rockwood posted that Poplar still had 17 inches of Ice on Saturday and are guessing Saturday the 13th as ice out there. Bearskin Lodge and Outfitters posted that they think it’s very unlikely that ice will be out on East Bearskin by the 13th for fishing opener. They said they even called everyone with reservations for the campground this upcoming weekend that they may not be able to get into the campground either because of the snow piled up at the entrance from the plow.


Sawbill posted 25 inches of ice on Friday.
 
denik
05/08/2023 07:13AM
 
Good morning all! We've got a May 11th permit for Snowbank Lake, and we're trying to decide if we should just cancel it now, or try to go for it. Watching the cams for Fall & Moose have been encouraging, but I'm not sure if that's even a close indication of what's happening on Snowbank. Does anyone up there have info on current conditions for Snowbank? Already talked to the outfitter, and the best answer they could give us is that it's making progress and might be out by then.
 
deepwater
05/08/2023 11:36AM
 
denik: "Good morning all! We've got a May 11th permit for Snowbank Lake, and we're trying to decide if we should just cancel it now, or try to go for it. Watching the cams for Fall & Moose have been encouraging, but I'm not sure if that's even a close indication of what's happening on Snowbank. Does anyone up there have info on current conditions for Snowbank? Already talked to the outfitter, and the best answer they could give us is that it's making progress and might be out by then."


This stuff happens every year. People are worried that the ice won't be gone and more often than not, it is. If it were me I would just go up and figure it out. You will have a good time either way.


Have fun!
 
LindenTree
03/01/2023 09:25AM
 
May 9 Shagawa Ely
May 15 Gunflint lake

 
bennojr
05/08/2023 11:08AM
 
Snowbank, in my experience, is the last
of the Ely area entry points to go out.
As of yesterday, I hear Kawishiwi Lake
Road is not passable.
Here on Mitawan, near Isabella, the lake
is still 90% ice covered.
 
airmorse
05/08/2023 10:01AM
 
ducks: "HighnDry: "Good news!




Has anybody been up the Gunflint recently to check on ice conditions on those lakes?"




Rockwood posted that Poplar still had 17 inches of Ice on Saturday and are guessing Saturday the 13th as ice out there. Bearskin Lodge and Outfitters posted that they think it’s very unlikely that ice will be out on East Bearskin by the 13th for fishing opener. They said they even called everyone with reservations for the campground this upcoming weekend that they may not be able to get into the campground either because of the snow piled up at the entrance from the plow.



Sawbill posted 25 inches of ice on Friday. "



Going to be some cold cold water for a while when the ice finally melts.
 
TuscaroraBorealis
03/12/2023 08:46AM
 
Thinking of renting a mule. :)
 
BigTim
03/12/2023 08:57AM
 



You may borrow my donkey Mike.
 
WhiteWolf
03/12/2023 04:13AM
 
Gotta melt the snow before you melt the lake ice. That's not happening for at least 2-3 weeks.


And likely to challenge all time records ( snow depth for Duluth)
with more snow almost certain over next day or so.


KDLH 120855Z 09015KT 1/2SM R09/P6000FT -SN BLSN OVC010 M03/M05 A2982 RMK AO2 SLP122 SNINCR 1/45 P0003 60010 T10331050 58015


SNINCR 1/45 means one inch of new snow fell in the last hour with 45" on the ground.
Simply amazing. I have been in the field for nearly 25 years and have never seen an airport measure nearly 4' of snow on the ground. Sure it happens out west at elevation and all- but different deal here in the Upper Midwest.

Here are the Top 10 high extreme snow depths for Duluth -- have a feeling 1965 ( mid March) has met it's maker. (3/11 and 3/12/2023 are not yet in the CLIMO) -- also go back to my previous post on daily records for snow depth for March for Duluth. They are beating those like a rented mule.





 
KawnipiKid
02/21/2023 03:09PM
 
May 8th
 
HighnDry
02/21/2023 04:11PM
 
May 6 shagawa Ely
May 13 Gunflint lake
 
TuscaroraBorealis
03/12/2023 09:20AM
 
BigTim: "



You may borrow my donkey Mike. "



Lol
 
Zulu
03/12/2023 01:30PM
 
Shagawa Lake Ely - April 27


Gunflint Lake - May 5

 
TonyJames4
05/02/2023 02:04PM
 
Hi all,


Anyone been up to Moose or Fall Lake recently? Curious how the ice is in person. Hard to get a good reading from the webcams. Appears the ice has taken a beating the past few days. I have a big group coming up for the walleye opener. Have permits for the 12th. Any input would be helpful.


Thanks!
 
Kendis
02/21/2023 02:51PM
 
April 1.
 
Frenchy19
03/12/2023 06:17PM
 
Never. The winter from hell will never end.
 
sns
05/15/2023 09:45AM
 
Per outfitter, the main part of Sag had some ice two days ago but was expected to go off yesterday or today.


Yesterday's Sentinelhub Sat image was particularly poor, and there's no time stamp to show when it was taken, but it looks like there was still a raft of ice in the largest open area north of Baird Island.


It looked like you could probably paddle to American Point or Hook Island.


Basically, it's go time.
 
jacobf
05/15/2023 12:54PM
 
sns: "Per outfitter, the main part of Sag had some ice two days ago but was expected to go off yesterday or today.


Yesterday's Sentinelhub Sat image was particularly poor, and there's no time stamp to show when it was taken, but it looks like there was still a raft of ice in the largest open area north of Baird Island.


It looked like you could probably paddle to American Point or Hook Island.


Basically, it's go time."




I was just looking at this too. This is from yesterday (May 14) at 12:30 PM CST. There are still some large chunks in the deeper lakes, but lots of lakes look clear.
 
schweady
03/19/2023 03:01PM
 
Sometime in spring 2024??


May 7 Shagawa
May 18 Gunflint

 
RedLakePaddler
03/21/2023 05:23PM
 
Moose Lake, May 14Th. -1*F this morning in East Grand Forks MN.
Got another blizzard on the way!


Carl
 
WhiteWolf
03/22/2023 09:32AM
 
NWS Duluth area snowfall records--
Duluth #6
Brainerd #2
(Brainerd easily gonna get #1, Duluth needs another 10" or so.)


DLH area snowfall records
 
Pinetree
03/22/2023 11:00AM
 
WhiteWolf: "NWS Duluth area snowfall records--
Duluth #6
Brainerd #2
(Brainerd easily gonna get #1, Duluth needs another 10" or so.)



DLH area snowfall records "



Thanks, right now we have about 28-30 inches on the ground in Brainerd. This sure doesn't seem like a record tho. At least what has been on the ground at one time I know has been a lot more. Maybe meltdown is the difference?
I know in past years I couldn't see the top of fence posts and snow was extra deep on the roof. Not that bad this year.
I think Brainerd shifted location where snow is checked also.
Great year for skiing cross country over 100 days this year.
Thanks for the info.
 
WhiteWolf
03/22/2023 11:55AM
 
Pinetree: "WhiteWolf: "NWS Duluth area snowfall records--
Duluth #6
Brainerd #2
(Brainerd easily gonna get #1, Duluth needs another 10" or so.)




DLH area snowfall records "




Thanks, right now we have about 28-30 inches on the ground in Brainerd. This sure doesn't seem like a record tho. At least what has been on the ground at one time I know has been a lot more. Maybe meltdown is the difference?
I know in past years I couldn't see the top of fence posts and snow was extra deep on the roof. Not that bad this year.
I think Brainerd shifted location where snow is checked also.
Great year for skiing cross country over 100 days this year.
Thanks for the info."



Snowfall and snow depth are both myopic in how they are measured. I have no doubt about your recollections- but official snow depth is measuresd at 12Z time (7am now - 6am before time change) - that can throw people off . The whole deal - sadly - is not apples to apples. Measuring snow and snow depth - for more in-depth -- check this out -- measuring snow / depth (IN-DEPTH) :O)
 
Grizzlyman
03/23/2023 09:16AM
 
So one of the stories I would think with March this year is the lack of any “decent” weather at all.


We have not yet hit 45* in the Norrhern suburbs. Blaine airport had one day recorded at 44*… other than that we’ve only hit 40 a handful of times.


Looks like tomorrow might be our last shot for March- though admittedly the long range forecast has been pretty spotty…


Question: Has this ever happened? Have we ever NOT hit 45* in March?? I realize this is dependent on location obviously… but really anywhere in the state not hitting 45* at least once in March seems like an impossibility…




 
Speckled
03/23/2023 10:28AM
 
Speckled: "April 16th - Ely side



April 23rd - Gunflint side
"



Clearly overly optimistic.
 
Pinetree
03/23/2023 09:27AM
 
Forecasts thru April 5th in Brainerd is maybe a high of 41 degrees, Less ice on the lakes this year, but usually, if the ground is white, the sun reflects and does not get as warm.


Weird year, below all that snow the ground really isn't frozen.
Most lakes by April 20th are ice-free in Brainerd. Were still making ice this year. It wasn't a cold winter, just the same all the time.
 
pswith5
03/25/2023 05:31PM
 
I'm not so sure....
 
WhiteWolf
03/12/2023 07:06PM
 
55" on the ground at 11am this today


KDLH 121655Z COR 06014G26KT 1/4SM R09/2400V4500FT -SN FZFG BKN009 OVC015 M03/M06 A2983 RMK AO2 PK WND 06032/1634 SLP126 SNINCR 1/55 P0003 T10331056
 
YetiJedi
03/12/2023 07:08PM
 
Frenchy19: "Never. The winter from hell will never end."


Ha! Might seem like that at times! Technically, that warmth of the wind coming from the nether regions you mention might cause a much earlier ice-out!
 
WhiteWolf
03/13/2023 06:27PM
 
If your gonna break records- might as well go all in.



 
WhiteWolf
03/14/2023 06:08AM
 
The forecasted amounts above now look too high. Expect totals closer to 8-10" in the Duluth area for the late week system. The pattern in the long rang- though- still looks active.
 
HayRiverDrifter
03/14/2023 11:40AM
 
I predict an average ice out this year.


With the deep snow, we have no frost here in Western WI. I would expects a number of positive effects of this. Much more of the melt should soak into the ground as oppose to run off.


Also, I suspect the lack of frost may cause the ice along the shorelines to melt sooner than if there was frost.





 
Stumpy
04/30/2023 07:48AM
 
Ice out ain't gonna happen.
We are going from a late Spring into early Autumn and Winter.
;)
 
SouthernExposure
03/15/2023 05:56PM
 
I have never tried to keep records on ice outs but I'll take a swing.


Ely - April 29th
Gunflint - May 8th


Just a SWAG.


SE
 
LindenTree
03/15/2023 07:37PM
 
From the article.

"That may seem obvious. ... But there are a lot of factors involved. How thick the ice is. Snow depth. Wind. The size of the lake. ... Rain can be a big factor; it really speeds it up," Downing said. "But we found that the most critical factor is thawing-degree days."


In other words, how warm it gets each day and how often it gets warm.


Thawing-degree days are figured on a complicated formula: Add the daily high temperature to the daily low temperature, divide by 2 and then subtract 32. For every positive number, those are thawing-degree days. So if the air temperature is an average of 10 degrees above freezing during a day, that accumulates 10 thawing-degree days. (You don't need to know that formula; the ice-out widget does it for you.)


The widget starts measuring any thawing-degree days in January. The number should pick up in February, speed up in March and rocket up in April.


Expert predicts a late ice out.
 
TreeBear
03/15/2023 08:07PM
 
Well, my optimistic Clearwater May 4th permit is hoping for a May 3rd or before ice out! Haha. Everything east of the Gunflint is big and deep and should ice out faster than the smaller chains. The Royal River on the other hand is of greater concern...
 
Stumpy
03/18/2023 09:16AM
 
Shagawa
Noon
April 29
 
Maiingan
04/27/2023 08:20PM
 
Vermilion still has 18" of ice. 10-day forecast says nights below freezing.
 
Kiwi
04/27/2023 07:19PM
 
Folks, good evening.
Trip planned for May 7 to Gabbro and Bald Eagle.
Outfitter feels we should be good to go. Any advice or opinion from the veteran paddlers? Do we expect flowing water in lakes and accessible portages by then? Appreciate any insight.
 
AlexanderSupertramp
04/28/2023 07:02AM
 
Maiingan: "Vermilion still has 18" of ice. 10-day forecast says nights below freezing."


Soooooo you're saying there's a chance....
 
Kendis
04/28/2023 07:03AM
 
Kiwi: "Folks, good evening.
Trip planned for May 7 to Gabbro and Bald Eagle.
Outfitter feels we should be good to go. Any advice or opinion from the veteran paddlers? Do we expect flowing water in lakes and accessible portages by then? Appreciate any insight."



Here is the ice report as measured on Sawbill on April 26 (two days ago):


31" total
8" is compacted snow
23" is ice of varying quality


The 10 day forecast as of April 28 is mostly for highs in the upper 30s to low 50s.
Lows are at or below freezing.


Last year was much colder for much longer, and I had to cancel a trip with entry date May 6. Actual ice out was something like 1-2 weeks after that.


I would guess you just barely make it.
 
sunnybear09
04/28/2023 07:26AM
 
This is aimed at bass lovers, mostly. So if there is no ice out until just before the opener, what will the status be of bass fishing a week later? (note I have a May 21 permit for Brule) Will the bass stay deep or will they begin to move in pre-spawn by then and a week after that? Assuming normal weather right after ice-out, nothing really balmy or bitter. I target bass, endure pike, am surprised by walleye and lakers when they happen. Not much of a depth guy either. Thanks...
 
Pinetree
04/30/2023 03:12PM
 
Many Brainerd lakes went ice free today with 50 degree F. temps and matching 50 MPH wind. Large whitecaps on the lake today. Not a canoe day.
 
HighnDry
04/30/2023 05:40PM
 
Coating of snow on the portage.
Ice fields on the lake.
It's getting there.
Bet that water is ?? cold!
 
Jaywalker
04/30/2023 05:43PM
 
Referring to TB's post:

Once the ice starts to pull back from the shore ice out is not too far off. Refer back to my chart of Moose Lake above.


If I remember my science correctly, ice basically melts from the bottom up on lakes. When sunlight penetrates to the water it warms via the greenhouse effect and starts to melt and rot the ice from the bottom up. This happens due to the sunlight getting through. Warm air temps mainly help to eliminate the reflective effect of the snow - warm air is not doing much to melt the ice from the top down. Once you see dark spots on the lake, plenty of sunlight is getting through.
 
Banksiana
05/05/2023 10:51AM
 
Robinson (just south of Ely) looks like it will open today.
 
Soledad
04/06/2023 02:45PM
 
I'll be up fishing tomorrow- looking forward to get some more winter in before it's gone. The ice can start melting after I get some slabs in the freezer.
 
gravelroad
04/05/2023 10:55AM
 
The worm is finally turning:



 
Grizzlyman
03/01/2023 06:09PM
 
I’d like to start lake season sooner rather than later so I’ll say April 18th :) Ely April 22 gunflint.

I can’t take another mid-late may ice-out. :)
 
WhiteWolf
03/01/2023 03:14PM
 
update --


32" on the ground in DLH.. 2" hour rates.


METAR: KDLH [Duluth Intl Arpt]
METAR: KDLH 012055Z 06014KT 1/4SM R09/3500V4500FT -SN BLSN VV012 M07/M09 A2982 RMK AO2 PK WND 04026/2003 SLP123 SNINCR 2/32 P0002 60006 T10671094 53007
 
yogi59weedr
03/01/2023 02:14PM
 
Just drove I-80 from Iowa illinois border to South Bend Indiana last weekend. Not any ice on the interstate ponds. Highly unusual for no ice on any of them.
It's gonna b a late April ice out.
I know it's not up there but......
 
WhiteWolf
03/01/2023 01:54PM
 
Will not have a prog in this call as maybe I'am bit biased--
but Duluth is challenging all time snow depths for early March.


Most on the ground for the 2nd of March (official snow depth is taken at 6am CST) is 36".


29" as of noon today. The SNINCR 1/29 at the 1755Z ob is 29" on the ground. Still snowing hard as of last ob at 2pm (1955Z)


KDLH 011955Z 07015G28KT 1/4SM R09/4000V6000FT -SN BLSN VV015 M07/M09 A2980 RMK AO2 PK WND 07028/1950 SFC VIS 1/2 SLP115 P0002 T10671094
KDLH 011855Z 07016G25KT 1/4SM R09/2800V3500FT -SN BLSN VV010 M06/M08 A2979 RMK AO2 PK WND 07029/1807 SLP111 P0002 T10611083
KDLH 011844Z 07018G23KT 1/4SM R09/3000V3500FT -SN BLSN VV010 M06/M08 A2979 RMK AO2 PK WND 07029/1807 P0002 T10561083
KDLH 011755Z 06016G23KT 1/4SM R09/3000FT SN BLSN VV008 M06/M08 A2980 RMK AO2 PK WND 07028/1737 SLP114 SNINCR 1/29 P0005 60025 T10561078 11044 21061 53002


alot can change in 6 weeks - but the Arrowhead is dealing with a top 90% of all time snow depth ( some areas running 4' above " normal" since 2008) as of this writing and the snow machine is far from done and a below avg to much below March forecasted for temps. Ouch. Another back loaded winter.
Even with this - I don't see ice out later than maybe a week past avg's? It will come down to April as March is about written in the book















 
analyzer
04/09/2023 09:19AM
 
Was ice fishing on White Bear Lake in the Twin Cities yesterday. There was still 22" of ice below the water line. About 17" of good ice. However, It will be deteriorating very quickly with the temps expected this week.


I was fishing by myself, nearly had the lake to myself too. Caught 134 crappies from 9:30 to 2:30. I love spring ice fishing.
 
Jaywalker
04/09/2023 12:18PM
 
Before anyone gets too worried about whether or not the ice will be out by their entry date, I thought I would post this little reminder from last year. Note seven days before the first photo was taken, there was a post that ice on Moose, Snowbank, and Lake One was averaging 22-24 inches. 14 days after that post, Moose was ice free at least on the south end.
 
bennojr
05/04/2023 04:55PM
 
I'm to the sender on mitawan lake.
Today I see a hint of open water on the far shore.
I expect that when mitawan goes out lakes like gabbro,
Bald eagle, perent, and Isabella will be out as well.
Of the four lakes nearest me mitawan is the last to go.
Send me an email and I'll send a pic.
 
Mapmaker
05/05/2023 10:45AM
 
If anyone is interested, you can use the Sentinel-2 Playground (https://www.sentinel-hub.com/explore/sentinelplayground/) to monitor ice out by viewing the latest satellite imagery. This data is updated every few days for just about any location on earth, and you can toggle to previous dates, as well as view different color band combinations. Cloud cover presents a problem... the last non-cloudy day around Sawbill was 4/29 but the Ely side has been clearer lately.


The screenshot is showing the Fall Lake area from yesterday as an example.



 
bloody stump
05/05/2023 11:23AM
 
Thanks for sharing...way cool (and much better than the MODIS shots i have been looking at)
 
Banksiana
05/05/2023 01:26PM
 
Easy Link to sentinel site.
 
Jaywalker
05/05/2023 02:35PM
 
As of this afternoon (Friday) the ice on Moose has pulled away from the islands, may be starting to form cracks, and looks like it’s turning black in several spots. Last year it looked like (see above) this on Saturday afternoon, and all ice in the camera shot was gone 3 days later. I’ll bet it will be close to the same this year, but with cloudy days coming may take 1-2 more days.



 
Banksiana
05/09/2023 09:25AM
 
sns: "Banksiana: "East arm of Burntside opening up. First session of pick-up ultimate last night in Ely. Spring is here."



Funny, I never imagined there would be Ultimate in Ely. Good stuff. You play?



Regardless, that's always a harbinger of spring!"



Mondays at 6:00, Whiteside park. Start time moves earlier in the fall, eventually lighted discs are employed. Then snow. Anyone welcome all levels of skill play, co-ed, all ages. I do play though at 61 its a bit of a farce (endless repeat of Little Feat lyric- "you know that you're over the hill when your mind makes a promise your body can't fill").
 
Kendis
05/10/2023 07:09AM
 
JimmyJustice: "Kendis: "May 13, just in time."



I will take my trophy now please."



There, fixed it for you. :-)
 
HighnDry
05/10/2023 07:27AM
 
Current conditions:
MN DNR Ice Out map


However....


LaTourell ice update
 
JimmyJustice
05/10/2023 07:33AM
 
Kendis: "JimmyJustice: "Kendis: "May 13, just in time."




I will take my trophy now please."




There, fixed it for you. :-)"



Brilliant. :)
 
denik
05/11/2023 11:55AM
 
deepwater: "denik: "Good morning all! We've got a May 11th permit for Snowbank Lake, and we're trying to decide if we should just cancel it now, or try to go for it. Watching the cams for Fall & Moose have been encouraging, but I'm not sure if that's even a close indication of what's happening on Snowbank. Does anyone up there have info on current conditions for Snowbank? Already talked to the outfitter, and the best answer they could give us is that it's making progress and might be out by then."



This stuff happens every year. People are worried that the ice won't be gone and more often than not, it is. If it were me I would just go up and figure it out. You will have a good time either way.



Have fun!"



Well, we tried to go for it and failed. We planned to paddle the shoreline to get to one of the portages, but the ice was too thick & too close to shore. It ended up being a long-distance dinner date instead.
 
YardstickAngler
05/13/2023 02:23PM
 
Per a discussion with Sawbill, ice out on Sawbill as of 6 AM today. Happy fishing opener!


Andy at Tuscarora reports Round Lake is out and significant portions of Sag and Seagull are open.
 
sns
05/15/2023 02:40PM
 
jacobf: "



I was just looking at this too. This is from yesterday (May 14) at 12:30 PM CST. There are still some large chunks in the deeper lakes, but lots of lakes look clear."



That's a great image - what are you using / where are you finding that?
 
jacobf
05/15/2023 02:56PM
 
sns: "jacobf: "




I was just looking at this too. This is from yesterday (May 14) at 12:30 PM CST. There are still some large chunks in the deeper lakes, but lots of lakes look clear."



That's a great image - what are you using / where are you finding that?"



This particular one is from Google Earth Engine, but you can get similar results in the Sentinel Hub EO browser.
 
sns
05/15/2023 05:54PM
 
jacobf: "sns: "jacobf: "

I was just looking at this too. This is from yesterday (May 14) at 12:30 PM CST. There are still some large chunks in the deeper lakes, but lots of lakes look clear."


That's a great image - what are you using / where are you finding that?"


This particular one is from Google Earth Engine, but you can get similar results in the Sentinel Hub EO browser. "


Interesting...my expereince with sentinelhub is that it is considerably lower resolution than what you've grabbed from GEE. You use it professionally?

 
jacobf
05/15/2023 09:20PM
 
sns: "jacobf: "sns: "jacobf: "


I was just looking at this too. This is from yesterday (May 14) at 12:30 PM CST. There are still some large chunks in the deeper lakes, but lots of lakes look clear."



That's a great image - what are you using / where are you finding that?"



This particular one is from Google Earth Engine, but you can get similar results in the Sentinel Hub EO browser. "



Interesting...my expereince with sentinelhub is that it is considerably lower resolution than what you've grabbed from GEE. You use it professionally?
"



I do use it professionally, but it’s the same data and tools that anyone can access. Send me an email through my profile and I can share the workflow in either platform to get that kind of output.
 
Kendis
05/16/2023 06:49AM
 
sns: "
Interesting...my expereince with sentinelhub is that it is considerably lower resolution than what you've grabbed from GEE. You use it professionally?
"



When you look at a smaller area of interest, the 10m pixel size becomes more prominent. The less you zoom in, the less the pixel size matters.
 
HighnDry
05/16/2023 08:54AM
 
HighnDry: "May 6 shagawa Ely
May 13 Gunflint lake"



Well, I was way off. Shagawa was listed as May 8th ice-out. Gunflint is still apparently not ice-free.


MN DNR Ice-Out Map
 
pastorjsackett
03/22/2023 01:23PM
 
1000 years from now.
 
tumblehome
02/20/2023 10:16AM
 
I'll start with April 21 but will probably change it :)

Earliest ice out for camping was April 1 in 2013
Latest was some time in mid May. By that time the sun is too strong and the ice loses.


Tom
 
airmorse
03/01/2023 10:44AM
 
April 30th Ely


May 8th Gunflint

 
HighnDry
03/01/2023 07:27AM
 
just giving this a bump.....
 
papalambeau
03/01/2023 10:24AM
 
May 3rd - the day between two of my son's birthdays.
 
sns
03/17/2023 04:54PM
 
Canoearoo: "In honor of Baby Yoda (Grogu) I will go with May the 4th "


Since Baby Yoda is taken, I'll go with the First of May in honor of Jonathan Coulton.
 
Kendis
03/17/2023 01:10PM
 
Canoearoo: "In honor of Baby Yoda (Grogu) I will go with May the 4th "


Always.
 
Banksiana
03/17/2023 11:58AM
 
TreeBear: "Well, my optimistic Clearwater May 4th permit is hoping for a May 3rd or before ice out! Haha. Everything east of the Gunflint is big and deep and should ice out faster than the smaller chains. The Royal River on the other hand is of greater concern..."


In my experience big and deep (think Burntside) are considerably behind the smaller chains which tend to go out as much as a week earlier than big and deep.
 
Pinetree
03/30/2023 09:58AM
 
2012 March 29th I was fishing Lake trout from canoe in the BWCA-small lakes were just going ice free.
 
AKSTIGMO
03/30/2023 12:18PM
 
I predict May 12th :) late ice!
 
dschult2
03/13/2023 04:47PM
 
May 2 Ely, May 9 Gunflint. Of course this is nothing more than a guess and my best case scenario for my spring trip.
 
dogwoodgirl
03/13/2023 04:23PM
 
Grizzlyman: "I’d like to start lake season sooner rather than later so I’ll say April 18th :) Ely April 22 gunflint.


I can’t take another mid-late may ice-out. :)"



Meanwhile, 150 miles south of Gunflint Lake.....LOL



 
Basspro69
04/11/2023 12:14AM
 
pastorjsackett: "1000 years from now."Lolololololol
 
Basspro69
04/11/2023 12:16AM
 
May 1st Shagawa


May 9th Gunflint

3 pm for both
 
Pinetree
03/22/2023 11:09AM
 
By those records we broke the record with 4 inches today.
 
TuscaroraBorealis
04/30/2023 03:41PM
 
Little Gabbro earlier this afternoon...
 
nctry
04/30/2023 09:08PM
 
Fun to finally see open water opening up. And with about a quarter of the lake open I’m hearing loons again. It’ll be a good thawing week ahead. There is hope! Well, except for the Gunflint! Haha!
 
Stumpy
05/01/2023 02:46AM
 
About 10 years ago, I was out of work for a while, and went up to paint a friends cottage for about a week (inside).
I watched every day as the ice turned black.
One day there was an ice fisherman on a 5 gallon bucket, in the middle of the lake.
I couldn't believe it !
The ice went out the next day.
 
OMGitsKa
05/04/2023 08:28AM
 
Weather in the 70's next weekend - ice out might happen ON opener. https://lakevermilionresorts.com/webcams/ looks like the ice should be going out within the next few days based on how much has melted watching this week.
 
Grizzlyman
05/01/2023 08:15AM
 
Lake vermilion webcams.


Been watching these. Looks to me like this weekend hopefully. Looking very dark and spongy on Vermilion in many spots.
 
JimmyJustice
03/29/2023 07:29AM
 
Was driving around Faribault, MN last weekend and saw open water on a smaller lake (not pond). It caught my eye when I was looking to my left at one lake and then off to the right there was a flock of geese in open water. Didn't get a good look as I was driving, so it could have been a feeder lake with current and not a result of melt. But none, the less...it was open water. Lakes around Lakeville are darkening for sure.
 
TuscaroraBorealis
04/01/2023 11:01AM
 
Kendis: "April 1."



The day is still young!!!! :)
 
gravelroad
04/01/2023 07:21AM
 
(Not) a whole lot of (meltin’) goin’ on:










 
ForestDuff
04/06/2023 09:53AM
 
I decided against giving a late winter trip a go this year.
Weather conditions and snow depth played a key role, as well as aging participants.(Man and Dog)
One thing I've always thought about during late March trips is do I need to worry about bears yet.
I guess so, pic is from the Ely area early this week. Even Yogi is ready for ice out.







 
Banksiana
04/06/2023 12:17PM
 
B-dub near Ely yesterday



 
ForestDuff
04/06/2023 10:20AM
 



Sawbill Ice and Snow Depth Facebook Report
 
Kiwi
05/04/2023 08:16AM
 
Good morning.
Any updates on ice and open water at the Gabbro lakes?
Anyone aware of direct observation from recent fly over?
I guess I’m still in denial and not ready to cancel my trip !!
 
Pinetree
05/07/2023 06:46PM
 
Moose lake ice in full retreat ice is retreating-it will be gone by mid week-maybe
 
JimmyJustice
05/10/2023 06:56AM
 
JimmyJustice: "May 13, just in time."


I will take my trophy now please.
 
Stumpy
05/09/2023 11:00AM
 
What is ultimate ?
 
Banksiana
05/09/2023 08:06AM
 
East arm of Burntside opening up. First session of pick-up ultimate last night in Ely. Spring is here.
 
sns
05/09/2023 08:43AM
 
Banksiana: "East arm of Burntside opening up. First session of pick-up ultimate last night in Ely. Spring is here."


Funny, I never imagined there would be Ultimate in Ely. Good stuff. You play?


Regardless, that's always a harbinger of spring!
 
Banksiana
05/09/2023 11:36AM
 
Stumpy: "What is ultimate ?" Ultimate!
 
gravelroad
05/09/2023 02:34PM
 
sns: "Pinetree: "Stumpy: "What is ultimate ?"


I had zero idea also."



It's come a long was since a parking lot in New Jersey in 1968.


Current estimates are well over 5 million people play it all over the world.


Today there is a Pro league with 24 teams (23 US + 1 CA); Minnesota is a strong team that is primarily owned by Omar Ansari, owner of Surly Brewing. Their season just started and they play home games at Seafoam Stadium at Concordia College in St Paul.


It's a remarkably spectacular sport, and from time to time a play from an Ultimate game makes the ESPN Top-10 highlight reel.


At least one NFL Hall of Famer played, albeit for one tournament and mostly for publicity.


PS - looks like Moose Lake is just about ice-free!"



No way in hell could I resist the urge to say:


"What goes around, comes around." :-)
 
sns
05/09/2023 01:54PM
 
Pinetree: "Stumpy: "What is ultimate ?"

I had zero idea also."


It's come a long was since a parking lot in New Jersey in 1968.

Current estimates are well over 5 million people play it all over the world.

Today there is a Pro league with 24 teams (23 US + 1 CA); Minnesota is a strong team that is primarily owned by Omar Ansari, owner of Surly Brewing. Their season just started and they play home games at Seafoam Stadium at Concordia College in St Paul.

It's a remarkably spectacular sport, and from time to time a play from an Ultimate game makes the ESPN Top-10 highlight reel.

At least one NFL Hall of Famer played, albeit for one tournament and mostly for publicity.

PS - looks like Moose Lake is just about ice-free!
 
Grizzlyman
05/06/2023 06:59PM
 
Looks like it’s out on all the vermilion cams except one. Probably 1-2 days max
 
Harv
05/08/2023 09:22AM
 
Was on Fall Lake on this past Saturday, zero ice on the lake that I could see.
 
HighnDry
05/08/2023 06:06AM
 
Good news!


Has anybody been up the Gunflint recently to check on ice conditions on those lakes?
 
Pinetree
05/08/2023 10:05AM
 
Looks like Moose lake will be ice-free late today.
 
Pinetree
05/09/2023 11:46AM
 
Stumpy: "What is ultimate ?"


I had zero idea also.
 
adam
02/19/2023 07:11PM
 
Let's start up that ice-out chatter! I would like to be optimistic and think we are 8 weeks out from ice out.

Throw out your best ice-out date prediction.

DNR Ice Out History

 
WhiteWolf
02/20/2023 05:12AM
 
If time allows, I will show my thoughts on why.
Cliff notes thus far, not much cold, but snow, epic snow ,may delay what would have been an early ice out This is not based on this week
The pattern will likely repeat this further N
 
HighnDry
02/20/2023 06:13AM
 
Which lakes are doing this year? Is it still Gunflint(east) and Shagawa (Ely)? Or do we want to pick two others?
 
MikeinMpls
02/20/2023 09:45AM
 
Ely side: May 2.

Gunflint side: May 11.

Mike
 
WhiteWolf
02/20/2023 03:42AM
 
Had a lot written. Expect not an early ice out for most. -- without all the jargon.
 
JimmyJustice
02/20/2023 08:12AM
 
May 13, just in time.
 
OMGitsKa
02/20/2023 08:23AM
 
May 5th !
 
gravelroad
02/19/2023 07:43PM
 
adam: "I would like to be optimistic and think we are 8 weeks out from ice out."


Hee hee. ;-)






 
WhiteWolf
02/20/2023 03:32AM
 

\MN peeps-- here are the top 6 snow events in Twin Cities 'recorded' history. This event should "easily" make Top 4. Enjoy the weather- it's the only weather you got. **********************************************************************
* TOP SIX SNOWSTORMS * *
* FOR THE TWIN CITIES * *
* ------------------- * *
* INCHES * *
* 1. OCT 31-NOV 3 1991 28.4 * *
* 2. NOV 29-DEC 1 1985 21.1 * *
* 3. JAN 22-23 1982 .. 20.0...NOTE CORRECTION NEEDED TO //NCDC-LCD//*
* 4. JAN 20-21 1982 .. 17.4 * *
* 5. DEC 10-11 2010 .. 17.1 * *
* 6. NOV 11-12 1940 .. 16.8 * *
 
Speckled
02/20/2023 02:15PM
 
April 16th - Ely side


April 23rd - Gunflint side

 
Mocha
02/20/2023 02:47PM
 
APRIL 30 ELY


MAY 10 GUNFLINT
 
YetiJedi
02/20/2023 08:10PM
 
High noon on May 2.