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DELETED: DELETED: 2018 Ice Out - Boundary Waters

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Date/Time: 05/03/2024 12:16AM

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DELETED: DELETED: 2018 Ice Out - Boundary Waters

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Author	Message Text
trekronor	05/16/2018 09:42AM I just got back from a few days around the BW. Paddled the Kawishiwi River, Farm Lake, Mudro, Fourtown, and White Iron. No ice on any of those lakes (though they are all notably south from the others up there) - sounds like the ice had gone out about a week and a half ago. The fishing was pretty funky from the late ice out though. On the bright side, there were no flies or mosquitoes. None.
WhiteWolf	05/16/2018 01:27AM If SAG went out May 15th- I can almost be certain other lakes E along the border towards Superior still have some ice even if it doesn't show on the most recent MODIS. I ran into ice on Thomas (enough to make you really think things through) in 2008 for opener and it did not show on Hi-Res satellite we used for the NWS that is quite similar to MODIS now days.
Mad_Angler	05/15/2018 08:13AM OgimaaBines: "Mad_Angler: "It doesn't look like there is any ice left in the BW or Quetico... " Is the ice really out or are we just seeing dark rotten ice with no snow on it? " I was mostly looking at all the dark blue lakes on the Canadian side. There are 1 or 2 with some white on them. But all of the rest seem to be completely melted. Most of the US side is hidden by the clouds. But few lakes visible seem to be melted.
OgimaaBines	05/15/2018 12:44AM Mad_Angler: "It doesn't look like there is any ice left in the BW or Quetico... " Is the ice really out or are we just seeing dark rotten ice with no snow on it?
Mad_Angler	05/14/2018 01:17PM It doesn't look like there is any ice left in the BW or Quetico...
WhiteWolf	05/12/2018 02:42AM
Rockwood	05/11/2018 11:51PM Mocha: "perhaps the DNR is flying over daily?" Per the WTIP radio that's an aerial survey crew hired by the county, an expensive version of Google Maps. They are flying non-stop the last few days over the Gunflint Trail in a little Cessna 172.
Rockwood	05/11/2018 11:49PM Poplar still has ice (May 11 at 8pm) but you can get to all three entry points: EP 47 Lizz, EP 48 Meeds, and EP 49 Skipper. The huge ice flow in the center locks up some islands, but you can paddle around it.
WhiteWolf	05/11/2018 07:12PM MODIS 5/11/18
WhiteWolf	05/11/2018 06:37PM Looks like from todays MODIS that most lakes along the border E of and including SAG are locked in- also Brule and Greenwood.
WhiteWolf	05/11/2018 05:37PM Mocha: "according to boreal.org news flash... rockwood outfitters paddled to lizz portage and it was completely socked in. skipper, however, is wide open! i'd be calling various resorts/outfitters closest to your entry for current info. perhaps the DNR is flying over daily?" Yeah- usually by now either the FS or DNR would have flown over giving updates on lakes open or socked in....
johndku	05/11/2018 09:14AM Seagull Outfitters camera had 3 canoes on the water this morning, headed out of the bay and into the main lake. Looks like there's still some ice on the main lake, but enough open water to paddle.
Mocha	05/11/2018 08:59AM according to boreal.org news flash... rockwood outfitters paddled to lizz portage and it was completely socked in. skipper, however, is wide open! i'd be calling various resorts/outfitters closest to your entry for current info. perhaps the DNR is flying over daily?
Mocha	05/11/2018 08:59AM according to boreal.org news flash... rockwood outfitters paddled to lizz portage and it was completely socked in. skipper, however, is wide open! i'd be calling various resorts/outfitters closest to your entry for current info. perhaps the DNR is flying over daily?
WhiteWolf	05/11/2018 02:47AM temps in the mid 20'sF this AM-- very near record cold lows for I-Falls (24F in 1996 )TIED THE RECORD before I crash Just NOW) and HIB -- 23F in 1963. (those with reliable records as ELY does not). Hibbing will likely break a cold record also. This will not help lakes that still have ice on them. From experience- it's likely closer to 20F (if not teens with these most recent updates) between Gunflint Lake and the larger lakes to the E of Gunflint,-- Rose, Moose, Mountain etc... those lakes are the last to lose ice Climo wise even though it's not "officially recorded". Trout Lake and Greenwood Lake are also very close. Yeah- I know the sun angle/ length of daylight - and all will take care of ALL ice eventually- but this has not been a spring that you would think that. I would still expect ice in some form on lakes that are prone to hanging on to it for some time by actual eyewitness accounts. WeB Cams and Hi-Res Sat only go so far.
murphylakejim	05/10/2018 08:26PM im real curious about snowbank as my trip to stuart river isnt untill monday but i was going to head up to ely friday night or saurday morning to fish for laketrout on snowbank. If snowbank is not ice free i may wait to drive up untill sunday.
HighnDry	05/10/2018 08:04PM BWPaddler: "So - did we do a contest or not? Looks like there were only a few entries. I guessed 4/25 for Shagawa and I was only 10 days early, lol. I guessed 5/7 for Gunflint and I am still waiting... Crazy fun year - thanks everyone for all the photos. I was able to be on the shore as my own lake "went out" this year - so cool to hear the "tinkling" of the ice candles and watch as the wind literally swept it away. We set a new record by one day over 2013 for latest ice-out. " Well, we sort of did but it probably would have been better to set it up in a separate thread (my bad :). No matter. Ice out is still ice out --- whenever it happens. Does anyone have a bead on when Shagawa actually did go out or is it up on the DNR map?
cburton103	05/10/2018 04:03PM Mctenold - You should definitely be in the clear. There have already been reports of half of Moose being ice free, which should mean that Sucker and Newfound are totally ice free as they go out earlier. This should mean that Birch is also ice free, or darn close. So your trip is set!
TeamTuna06	05/10/2018 12:16PM Just got word that the lake we’re headed into is ice free. It’s just outside Quetico off the Namakan River so I’m sure the water flow has had plenty to do with getting the ice off. My question is, knowing that water levels seem low (on that lake at least) what kind of water levels are people seeing in the BWCA/Q? Getting close!! Tuna
Mad_Angler	05/10/2018 06:59AM The main lake of Seagull looks almost ice free...
mctenold	05/10/2018 06:02AM My trip coming up on 5/17 is from Williams & Hall on Moose up to a site on Birch Lake. It seems like I should be in the clear, can anyone confirm or deny?
BWPaddler	05/09/2018 08:24PM So - did we do a contest or not? Looks like there were only a few entries. I guessed 4/25 for Shagawa and I was only 10 days early, lol. I guessed 5/7 for Gunflint and I am still waiting... Crazy fun year - thanks everyone for all the photos. I was able to be on the shore as my own lake "went out" this year - so cool to hear the "tinkling" of the ice candles and watch as the wind literally swept it away. We set a new record by one day over 2013 for latest ice-out.
trekronor	05/09/2018 11:13AM Oh, no need to apologize - just was saying some of us will find a way to make it work. I haven't been this excited for a trip in a long time; I just can't wait to be sitting in a boat in a quiet place. Looking at the webcams today, looks like it's cold but raining pretty good which should help a bit.
Hobopaddle	05/09/2018 09:49AM Any word if brule lake is getting close?
HighnDry	05/08/2018 06:16PM trekronor: "Yeah, I know there will be some lakes with ice, but I am happy because as of now there are lakes open which I will be able to fish beginning Saturday. A week ago I wasn't even sure that would be the case. Will I be able to fish the NE section of BWCA? Probably not. Was I planning to? No. My trip is in a few days AND the forecast is calling for 60's and 70's in the days after opener. Plus I'll be able to fish in a boat, a nice change because all I've done since October is stand in cold rivers trying to catch steelhead. Everything is looking good. What more could I ask for?!?! Oh...some fish..." My apologies trekronor. It certainly wasn't my intention to step on your enthusiasm. If I could go in earlier, I would too. You'll do well. It's an excellent time to be up there. Take a ditch bag with you which I'm sure you already do. That water can be cold :)
trekronor	05/08/2018 10:32AM Yeah, I know there will be some lakes with ice, but I am happy because as of now there are lakes open which I will be able to fish beginning Saturday. A week ago I wasn't even sure that would be the case. Will I be able to fish the NE section of BWCA? Probably not. Was I planning to? No. My trip is in a few days AND the forecast is calling for 60's and 70's in the days after opener. Plus I'll be able to fish in a boat, a nice change because all I've done since October is stand in cold rivers trying to catch steelhead. Everything is looking good. What more could I ask for?!?! Oh...some fish...
Mad_Angler	05/08/2018 07:38AM WhiteWolf: "... It's amazing how some people get soo excited for a 15 acre bay on Seagull to go out,(or whatever) like it's happening all over the lake over 140' of water. Like people ice fisherman get excited with a bay freezing over in NOV. Give it 10 days people. And then, rest easy till November. It may snow Sat morning for the Arrowhead..... Be patient. Open water is coming. " I agree that open water is coming. But it will be a lot sooner than 10 days. The little 15 acre bay in Seagull is growing. There is quite a bit of open growing into the main lake of Seagull...
HighnDry	05/08/2018 07:18AM Good perspective WW as always. I'm going in the 17th via Mudro. It should be open all the way up the lower falls by then, maybe even Crooked. I would not be surpised to see ice in some place up there (or for it all to be gone too!). We'll see.
WhiteWolf	05/08/2018 12:12AM Satellite shots still show big lakes like Snowbank/ Alice / Thomas and Frasier being "white" on the lastest shots visible I've seen. They are dirty shots so will not post them and hopefully the rain will take care of this. These are W lakes. It's almost certain bigger lakes further E will still be "white" after the rain and I heard that Trout Lake ( near GM) has not even "floated up" yet. It's amazing how some people get soo excited for a 15 acre bay on Seagull to go out,(or whatever) like it's happening all over the lake over 140' of water. Like people ice fisherman get excited with a bay freezing over in NOV. Give it 10 days people. And then, rest easy till November. It may snow Sat morning for the Arrowhead..... Be patient. Open water is coming.
talltom2	05/07/2018 09:37PM Grandson and I are heading up in mid-July, so last week I showed him a webcam picture of one of the iced over lakes around Ely. His eyes get big, and he says, "wow big poppa, that's crazy!" I said, not to worry. That far north they're used to it. If the ice hasn't completely melted by mid-July, they have special large prongs that they bolt in the front of the canoe to bust through the ice. I said the only problem is that you have to paddle a lot harder to bust through the ice as we go, but we'll be fine....LOL
Goshawk	05/07/2018 08:13PM I heard from Canoe Country Outfitters. The western half of Moose Lake is open water. The shallower Ely-area lakes are open. Forecast says rain in the next few days. Feeling hopeful.
Guest45797	05/07/2018 08:02PM Moose should be open tomorrow morning. Newfound and Sucker are probably gone. Usually they go a few days before Moose. Bailey may be a different story but I nave no doubt there won't be any issue by Friday.
HighnDry	05/07/2018 03:47PM The outfitters on Moose Lake are usually in touch with the forest service who run obs flights over the BWCA. Bob Latourell is usually plugged into this as are probably W&H and CC. Ring them up and see what they say. Remember to report back :)
Walter11	05/07/2018 01:41PM Arborealis: "Any thoughts on whether our seagull/saganaga trip this weekend (11-13) will be possible? If not we may forsake the canoe and just hop on the SHT for a few days..." Check out duluthnewstribune.com, doesn't answer your question fully but there were was an article yesterday/today regarding ice out and Mike Berg commented on those.
mlnarikb	05/07/2018 12:40PM Anyone been out to Basswood Lake yet? We're hoping our "Opener" trip is a go with an ice out there. thx!
trekronor	05/07/2018 11:26AM Looking at Seagull Outfitters on the webcam (https://www.visitcookcounty.com/resources/webcams/), they put boats in sometime over the last few days as their bay thawed, but it looks like the main lake still has ice. You might want to reach out to them and see what they think.
Arborealis	05/07/2018 11:08AM Any thoughts on whether our seagull/saganaga trip this weekend (11-13) will be possible? If not we may forsake the canoe and just hop on the SHT for a few days...
Jaywalker	05/07/2018 09:06AM mctenold: "Where can I find a link to this webcam, and where is it located on Moose Lake?" I believe it the island west southwest of the bigger island across from the put in. Vosburgh's Custom Cabins - Moose Lake webcam
Mocha	05/07/2018 05:32AM looks like you were able to get to a campground but where are the other photos taken?
mctenold	05/06/2018 09:53PM Jaywalker: "Moose cracked up a lot today. " Where can I find a link to this webcam, and where is it located on Moose Lake?
johnMN	05/06/2018 09:47PM Just back from a couple of days on the Gunflint. Ice will be out in many lakes by opener IMHO. Here are some pics: Flour Lake, Sea Gull from End of the Trail, Poplar Lake and Moss Lake.
Mad_Angler	05/06/2018 07:55PM As of Sunday afternoon.... Seagull Bay is completely ice free!
Mad_Angler	05/06/2018 07:53PM From Sawbill on Friday: "Luke measuring the ice on Sawbill Lake, May 4, 2018. He reports 9 inches of rotten ice and that he will not be walking out on the ice again this year." Rotten ice won't take too long to melt... Sawbill
Jaywalker	05/06/2018 07:47PM Moose cracked up a lot today.
The Great Outdoors	05/06/2018 06:52PM Shagawa and many other small lakes in the Ely area are now ice free. (Shagawa opened up last night) Burntside, Snowbank, Knife and other large lakes are still ice covered, but they are getting dark and may be open by Saturday with some rain, wind, and luck!!!
IcePaddler	05/06/2018 05:42PM Ice is breaking up on the Bearskin camera. Big sheet broke off and floated to shore. Happy to see it go! Heading up on the 16th!
manmountain8	05/05/2018 07:19PM Not a trace of ice left in the webcam for fall lake. http://g0.ipcamlive.com/player/player.php?alias=59f9f3266234d
MooseTrack	05/05/2018 08:48AM The ice went off Farm Lake yesterday
HighnDry	05/05/2018 07:54AM HighnDry: "In the past, we've always (or usually) picked Gunflint and Shagawa (Ely area) and asked for volunteers to check on these lakes. It goes kind of like this: Gunflint: May 22nd, 2018 Shagawa: May 10th, 2018 Guess away!" Well, my original guess was the 10th for Shagawa. I just checked the webcam and it looks close to going out but it will probably take another day or two, maybe more :). I'm wondering if Gunflint will go out before the 22nd given the last Gunflint webcam shot. There is still a lot of ice on that lake though.
BrownDog	05/04/2018 08:05PM This may relieve some stress: Modis Aerial imagery
Mocha	05/04/2018 05:19PM webcams cook county webcams, including gunflint trail
Mocha	05/04/2018 05:14PM noticed on FB that gunflint lake has open water and Rockwood threw a big boulder from his dock and it went through the ice on Poplar lake.
The Great Outdoors	05/04/2018 02:08PM TheGreatIndoors: "Mad_Angler: " Looking at the ice out map is certainly promising... The pink dots are covering the state and getting pretty close to the BW..." This year everything is melting in nearly the same week. Normally the melt slowly makes its way north. Record late spring, but also record fast melt? TGO, sorry, but it doesn't look like were coming to Ely this year. We'll have to have drinks another time!" What's the matter, afraid to come to the real man's side of the BWCAW??? :)
Mjharge1	05/04/2018 01:47PM Deb and dave at seagull lake went up to the house which gives them a good view across the lake, what some people thought was water on the far side is definitely only shadows. The lake is thawing quickly though. The tenp will be in the low 70s again on Monday, by the end of the week I’m guessing ice will either be completely out or at the very least navigable They also adjusted the webcam today to give a better view of the main lake
trekronor	05/04/2018 01:29PM And just like that, Fall Lake is showing a lot of water. Opener trip is looking good!
TheGreatIndoors	05/04/2018 12:48PM Mad_Angler: " Looking at the ice out map is certainly promising... The pink dots are covering the state and getting pretty close to the BW..." This year everything is melting in nearly the same week. Normally the melt slowly makes its way north. Record late spring, but also record fast melt? TGO, sorry, but it doesn't look like were coming to Ely this year. We'll have to have drinks another time!
Jaywalker	05/04/2018 12:00PM That's it - I'm going to start packing!
Mad_Angler	05/04/2018 11:33AM adam: "Pinning a thread for 2018 discussion. Feel free to discuss, make your prediction, or post pictures of crazy early season trips. Check out the DNR Ice out map to gauge historical ice out or monitor ice out as it moves north.... " Looking at the ice out map is certainly promising... The pink dots are covering the state and getting pretty close to the BW... If I had a permit for May 10, I'd still be pretty concerned. I have a permit for May 17. I'm not concerned at all...
HighnDry	05/04/2018 09:12AM Shagawa lake webcam for comparison.
trekronor	05/04/2018 08:14AM Here's a side by side of a few lakes the last few days: Birch Lake 4/30 to 5/4 Bearskin Lodge 5/2 to 5/4 Seagull 5/2 to 5/4 Vermilion 5/3 to 5/4 Birch is looking much better. Bearskin and Seagull haven't changed a lot, but they are more north east. Vermilion (Pike Bay East) changed quite a bit over the last 22 hours.
The Great Outdoors	05/04/2018 04:52AM Lakes such as Snowbank and Burntside could be iffy at that time, Burntside is still covered with ice, and it's 34 degrees this morning. Smaller lakes are beginning to open, and Shagawa should be ice free in less than a week.
murphylakejim	05/03/2018 08:32PM Im pretty confident in being able to go down the stuart river to an ice free stuart lake on may 14th but i am concerned about being able to fish snowbank on a day permit the 12th and or 13th...... Thoughts?
ewbeyer	05/03/2018 05:13PM 100% not open water on Sea Gull. The bay on that cam is the first area to be ice free. 2013 only that bay and the far eastern shore were ice free on opener. Could get a boat in and could only hug that shoreline up into the bay on the cam view and could still stand on the ice while hanging onto the boat. Other openers there was still ice on the far west basin while the remainder (motorized portion) was open. So, I would bet about a week after that bay is ice free is when the rest of the lake will be open.
Jaywalker	05/03/2018 12:54PM Ranger1: " By the looks of it today, I'd say Fall will be clear by Sunday, 5/6 at the latest Thoughts?" Tomorrow will be warm, sunny and more wind - so maybe!
Jaywalker	05/03/2018 12:46PM Ranger1: "HighnDry: " Seagull as of this morning." if you look way out through the opening there, looks like you can see open water. mid next week for sea gull?" I don't think that is open water you are seeing - I think its just a dark shadow from a cloud. Soon hopefully.
Hoaf	05/03/2018 12:17PM Sawbill Lake Info
Ranger1	05/03/2018 10:57AM HighnDry: " Seagull as of this morning." if you look way out through the opening there, looks like you can see open water. mid next week for sea gull?
HighnDry	05/03/2018 10:33AM Seagull as of this morning.
trekronor	05/03/2018 10:32AM It's definitely looking more promising. I'd like to say I'm not checking it often, but I MAY have a few different webcams open on my browser which I MIGHT be checking periodically through the day ;) There aren't any real good cameras on Shagawa so it's tough to say how it's looking, but what I see on the other lakes looks promising. Lake Vermilion is completely ice free as of this morning on Pike Bay West, while East is still covered.
Ranger1	05/03/2018 10:23AM By the looks of it today, I'd say Fall will be clear by Sunday, 5/6 at the latest Thoughts?
Bdubr	05/03/2018 10:15AM I doubt thee lakes can hold ice much longer. Just checked webcams for Ely and Grand Marais and everything looks very promising!
trekronor	05/02/2018 03:10PM Yeah, I think you are right. I took some more screenshots, and I plan to put together some side-by-sides on Friday because the next couple days are supposed to be a little bigger. I'll share the side-by-sides once I put them together.
Jaywalker	05/02/2018 03:04PM https://www.visitcookcounty.com/resources/webcams/ The Bearskin and Seagull web cams look much darker to me today, and the Poplar lake ice in the Rockwood cam looks like its just about to go - maybe 2-3 days?
trekronor	05/02/2018 01:04PM http://www.whiteironbeach.com/webcam/ Some guy is actually dropping boats in the water right now.
inspector13	05/02/2018 12:51PM mctenold:"Where can I find the live Fall Lake cam?" Google Packsack Canoe Trips and check out their website.
mctenold	05/02/2018 12:45PM Ranger1: " And here's Fall Lake as of this morning, for reference" Where can I find the live Fall Lake cam?
MrBadExample	05/01/2018 10:45PM Minnewawa, central MN, went out yesterday. There were trucks on the ice the weekend before last. Once the melt started, it went REALLY fast. Big sandy is mostly out. The largest bays should be ice free in a couple days.
mapsguy1955	05/01/2018 04:06PM Just got a call from Janice at Quetico Park Headquarters in Atikokan as my permit is for the 18th. The ice on French is getting weak, candle ice. There were people fishing 4 days ago but the ice is no longer safe. Their estimate is ice out will be on approximately the... 18th. I'm not sure if that is for the entire park, but they are north.
Jaywalker	05/01/2018 03:26PM i was just out biking and saw Cedar lake was 100% open and Lake Mde Maka Ska (the lake formerly known as Calhoun) was about 75% open. Both were fully covered and not very dark just on Friday, so that was a quick change. In case you are wondering, these lakes are about 1 mile west of Minneapolis and 1,225 miles north of the Gulf of Mexico:) I'm actually getting much more optimistic .
HighnDry	05/01/2018 03:25PM I'm not sure what to make of all of this. I'd guess that BWCA is probably going to be ice-free at least a few days late. I'm probably wrong though -- it's just intuition at this point. I finally booked a business trip from the 10 to the 15th figuring that it just might be out by the time I get back.
TheGreatIndoors	05/01/2018 02:05PM mapsguy1955: "Latest report from Canoe Canada in Atikokan (Shane) is that it was in the 80's yesterday and they expect the ice to be out between the 12th and the 15th. My entry on the 18th is looking better." Which lake?
mapsguy1955	05/01/2018 01:35PM Latest report from Canoe Canada in Atikokan (Shane) is that it was in the 80's yesterday and they expect the ice to be out between the 12th and the 15th. My entry on the 18th is looking better.
tonycosert	05/01/2018 01:19PM The birch side by side is really nice...thanks for sharing. I'm betting on 8 days till ice is out. That was some nice progress in just one day. Next Monday or Tuesday ......at least that is what I am hoping.
trekronor	05/01/2018 11:22AM Well I'll be on Fall Lake in 11 days (at least that's where my lodging is), so if we're about 10 days out, that works for me! I'm feeling much more at ease having seen the developments over the last couple days. I don't doubt there will be places I won't be able to fish, but it looks like I'll have some options at least.
WhiteWolf	05/01/2018 10:44AM Ranger1: " And here's Fall Lake as of this morning, for reference" yaa-- they got the boats down -- about 10 days out to ice out compared to previous years. When the motors go on its within 3-5 days.
Ranger1	05/01/2018 10:37AM And here's Fall Lake as of this morning, for reference
trekronor	05/01/2018 09:53AM Here's a side-by-side of Birch Lake yesterday morning (left) compared to this morning (right). Pretty good change from yesterday.
Mad_Angler	05/01/2018 09:52AM Look at this picture from Seagull Outfitters.... Bright sun out, open water, ice melting... We may not make fishing opener. But this should give you a little hope that we still might...
scat	04/30/2018 12:00PM There were loons and mergansers on three of my favorite northern Il. local lakes the past couple weeks. Kind of a rare occurrence. It looks like they flew the coop today. Maybe they know something... Might be smarter to trust in the birds rather than a weather forecaster? No offense intended White Wolf.
The Great Outdoors	04/30/2018 10:58AM TheGreatIndoors: "Green lake (large area and ~50' deep) outside the Twin Cities lost 28" of ice in the last week. Many lakes in that area appear partially open. Temps in Minneapolis last week are similar to the forecast in Ely this week. Of course it lost quite a bit of ice, the dang thing is just slightly north of the Gulf of Mexico for crying out loud!!!!! :)
trekronor	04/30/2018 08:23AM I see water on Birch Lake!
TheGreatIndoors	04/29/2018 11:19PM Green lake (large area and ~50' deep) outside the Twin Cities lost 28" of ice in the last week. Many lakes in that area appear partially open. Temps in Minneapolis last week are similar to the forecast in Ely this week. Before After
scat	04/29/2018 12:29PM I’m skeptical that lakes will be ice free up there by the opener. I was just checking out a blog like deal for Willow Flowage in Wisconsin, which is about six hours south of BW and the consensus is no way there. I fished there two years in a row the week after the opener before in 2015/16. May or may not apply so much, but that did add to my doubts after reading that. I’m going in June 3rd. Fingers crossed. I really don’t want to go to a plan B after all the anticipation for this trip.
HighnDry	04/28/2018 09:50PM I checked the LaTourell's FB page post from April 23rd: "The 60 plus degree days that we’ve been having definitely have improved our spring conditions. One week ago we had all out winter and I was plowing in nearly a foot of snow. The photo of the parking lot shows that most of the snow is now gone. Ice conditions are also deteriorating quickly, as we have seen the ice changing colors more each day and you can see the photo of what it looked like today. We’ve been in t-shirts all weekend. Folks are starting to stay off the ice. With many reports out there of huge amounts of ice remaining last week, I drilled a hole today and had only 20” of ice in front of our docks which is far less than many of the reports floating around our area. We’ll keep updating conditions but for now there is a bunch more optimism about open water season arriving in time to start our season."
WhiteWolf	04/28/2018 05:31PM Fall Lake web cam from Packsack. It has been missing from most links for sometime. This area of Fall Lake usually opens several days before the main lake. Been looking at this stuff for 20 yrs. TGO can testify if I'am full of it or not. Fall Lake is at least 10 days from FULLY opening under optimal conditions. Imagine SAG, or Gunflint. Double, at least. Fall lake web cam also the bright warm days are helping melt ice, which is typical. What is not helping is the dry air which allows the temp to rise fast during the day- but plummet at night close to the dewpoint which is in the low teens. Like a desert. Need moisture in the atmosphere-- (esp at night) Otherwise , opener is going to be a two lined / two legged affair for many that are so inclined in the Northwoods.
WhiteWolf	04/28/2018 01:18PM I didn't quite say it to this extent back on 2/12 in the "Late ice out' thread" as I knew it would be late, but not this late (record late for many) - but some lakes in the extreme NE of the Arrowhead that are deep and sheltered and get the heat sink from Superior -- like Greenwood, Trout and others along the border have the strongest chance I can remember off having some ice on the Friday before Memorial Day. I give it 20%. That is like 19% higher than I though in FEB. The winter on whole was not cold-- the late Winter and the Spring was- as was timely snowfall for a late ice out.
The Great Outdoors	04/28/2018 07:38AM Oh Man!!! Now you just went and burst The Great Indoors balloon, and rained on his parade (using the rain he needed to get the ice off the lakes), but reality is a cruel Mistress!! TGI is seeing the writing of the wall, or perhaps the writing in the snow, in Two Harbors and Embarrass yesterday morning!! Fear not TGI, you'll get 'em next year!!!! Looks like Snow Cones for the opener!! :)
WhiteWolf	04/28/2018 06:16AM photo below was taken by member on here named bloody_stump who texted it to me. Turtle Lake (Shoreview,MN) yesterday afternoon 2pm taken from the boat launch looking N. His words "I would be shocked if it is out in 5 days. I could have made it on the ice no problem with rubber duckies (knee high rubber boats). AS- TGO mentions- teens F right now across much of the Arrowhead and Northern,MN. The widespread rain that looked so promising a few days ago is now beginning to lose it's coverage and overall intensity for much of the area in question. Areas around Two Harbors,MN yesterday saw accumulating snow in the daylight hours which is very difficult to do with such a high sun angle this time of year. Say it ain't ... SNOW?! MnDOT's plow camera is showing snow falling near Two Harbors, Minn.
The Great Outdoors	04/28/2018 03:58AM GID, If you look closer, my prediction was for May 16th-not the opener. Currently 19 degrees at Burntside! Looks like you may be able to bring an even bigger glass to chip ice into for your favorite drink on opening day!! :)
TheGreatIndoors	04/27/2018 11:55PM The Great Outdoors: "You should be fine by that time. It will be close but I wouldn't worry unless we get night time temperature drops into the 30's the closer we get to the opener." Your tune has changed key! TGO, this is great news. I knew your icy chill would eventually thaw. Still hoping that Sag will melt in time. Want to double down on those Shirley Temples? How's the ice looking on Shagawa these days?
The Great Outdoors	04/27/2018 10:46PM You should be fine by that time. It will be close but I wouldn't worry unless we get night time temperature drops into the 30's the closer we get to the opener.
mctenold	04/27/2018 07:59PM I have a trip entering on May 16, Moose Lake. Hoping ice out will happen by then. Getting nervous.
Jaywalker	04/27/2018 06:38PM Two hints of potentially good news! 1- I biked by Brownie Lake on the top of the chain of lakes just west of Minneapolis, and ice was off 2/3s of the lake. It's a small lake, but it's a start. Despite ice pushing up on the south bank, a chorus of frogs was loudly singing. 2- Just got back from Midwest Mountaineering Expo, and heard an unsubstantiated rumour that Moose was down to 16 inches, down from 30 two weeks ago. I think that's a pretty promising pace. At about 10 inches it will just turn to candle ice and break up. I'm encouraged today.
Mad_Angler	04/27/2018 01:44PM HighnDry: "It's good to see some color on the ice-out map. " I agree. The lakes are dropping like flies now... The spring sun is high and hot. And it stays up for quite a long time. I am heading to Seagull Lake the Thursday after the opener. I thinking/hoping/betting that it will be open by then...
HighnDry	04/27/2018 10:09AM It's good to see some color on the ice-out map.
schweady	04/27/2018 09:19AM Officials are starting to caution folks around Otter Tail County to stop using 4-wheelers. Not everyone seems to be getting the word. Tullibee, apparently. Northern shores pulling back quite a bit on smaller or shallower lakes, blueish color to the ice. One favorite crappie pond may open today... shallow, mud bottom. Not much else.
jhb8426	04/27/2018 12:16AM Drove up to Motley via Hwy 10 today, the only water ice free was the Mississippi and a few roadside ponds.
HighnDry	04/26/2018 09:58PM I've been on Knife at ice-out. It was a bit tricky but the next day after a lot of rain and wind, all the ice was blown off the lake and it was completely clear. The day I first arrived, that lake was 95% ice-in. Picking a path in/around ice flows can be a bit dangerous -- whatever you do, use a healthy dose of caution!
IowaGuy	04/26/2018 06:25PM rockstaranon: Have a fishing opener trip planned from Mudro to Lower Basswood Falls. Entirely small lakes and the Horse River. I would imagine the Horse River will be well thawed with high water levels by the time opener hits as well as LBF with all that moving water." I did that route in mid-May of 2013 (also a late ice-out). Route was ice-free until I got to Robinson Lake. Had to wait a couple of days there for the ice to melt until I could keep going towards Argo, which still had some ice on it :-) I think you'll likely be just fine...
Bdubr	04/26/2018 06:04PM rockstaranon: "I guess what I'm wondering is even if the lakes aren't completely iced out but there's enough open water from the shoreline to the ice all the way around the lake, we should still be able to make a trek by skirting around the ice, no? I guess it might limit some deeper fishing spots but honestly how deep do you want to go this early in the spring? Have a fishing opener trip planned from Mudro to Lower Basswood Falls. Entirely small lakes and the Horse River. I would imagine the Horse River will be well thawed with high water levels by the time opener hits as well as LBF with all that moving water." Dont cancel your permit, your route will be open...See you out there!
rockstaranon	04/26/2018 05:31PM I guess what I'm wondering is even if the lakes aren't completely iced out but there's enough open water from the shoreline to the ice all the way around the lake, we should still be able to make a trek by skirting around the ice, no? I guess it might limit some deeper fishing spots but honestly how deep do you want to go this early in the spring? Have a fishing opener trip planned from Mudro to Lower Basswood Falls. Entirely small lakes and the Horse River. I would imagine the Horse River will be well thawed with high water levels by the time opener hits as well as LBF with all that moving water.
mapsguy1955	04/26/2018 02:44PM My Atikokan Outfitter still thinks the ice will be out by the 18th... I'm not so sure!
WhiteWolf	04/26/2018 01:21PM Jaywalker: "I've read that lake ice primarily melts from the bottom up, driven by water warming via the green house effect just like your car in summer. The whiter the top of the lake, the less sunlight is penetrating resulting in slower melting. Looking at the Moose, Ely, and GF web cams it looks like the big parts of the lakes are still pretty white. Maybe the rain forecast for early next week will darken it, but after that a bunch of cloudy days could slow things more. Humphhh. " +1 Rain will help. But it's going to take a lot of rain , and if so, it better be warm rain from the 850mb level ( about a mile up)- which doesn't seem to be in the cards until later on. One of the coldest springs on record can change on a dime, but the latent heat in the lake ice just doesn't go away because it suddenly warms with 5C rain. It takes weeks to see the effects, just like it takes weeks to freeze a lake with -10 to -20F temps in snow.
WhiteWolf	04/26/2018 01:13PM manmountain8: "The forecast has now improved. Starting on Sunday the 29th, the overnight lows will all be above freezing, except for may 1st and 2nd, which will dip to 31 just before dawn both days. Most of the lows are above 40 until the opener when lows will dip into the lower 30's again. Highs are all in the 60's or upper 50's. There is also plenty of rain forecasted. By my calculations ice out on Vermillion should be May 9th which should be similar to rest of the BWCA. " I can tell you that your forecasts are based likely on the American Model-- the GFS. Being this is something I have done for 20+ years- (forecast long term) I have serious reservations that the Big V will be out 5/09. The GFS (which goes straight into your apps) is starting to catch on to later situations. (more cool) It will warm up- but 5/09 I think is about week to 10 days early. Over time- watch you apps cool slightly as the GFS is not handling things that make sense but is catching up.
Jaywalker	04/26/2018 12:10PM I've read that lake ice primarily melts from the bottom up, driven by water warming via the green house effect just like your car in summer. The whiter the top of the lake, the less sunlight is penetrating resulting in slower melting. Looking at the Moose, Ely, and GF web cams it looks like the big parts of the lakes are still pretty white. Maybe the rain forecast for early next week will darken it, but after that a bunch of cloudy days could slow things more. Humphhh.
manmountain8	04/26/2018 12:04PM The forecast has now improved. Starting on Sunday the 29th, the overnight lows will all be above freezing, except for may 1st and 2nd, which will dip to 31 just before dawn both days. Most of the lows are above 40 until the opener when lows will dip into the lower 30's again. Highs are all in the 60's or upper 50's. There is also plenty of rain forecasted. By my calculations ice out on Vermillion should be May 9th which should be similar to rest of the BWCA.
WhiteWolf	04/26/2018 11:40AM Long Lake in New Brighton is very close. I grew up on the lake and talked to my mother on Tuesday. She still lives in the same house and it's about out- though the Freeway side will likely need a few days more. Over 3 weeks behind avg and the latest I can ever remember. There is no way in h double hockey sticks that Big Sag and Gunflint are out by the Opener and likely many others.
HighnDry	04/26/2018 11:13AM Wood Lake here in southwest MPS is open but I doubt it makes the ice-out map :)
inspector13	04/26/2018 10:34AM AndyEck84: "Any chance the MN DNR ice out page is just not updated regularly? How has that Bronson lake way up north reported ice out and no one else has? " No. They just updated that page this morning. Temperatures as of late have been warmer in the northwest than in southern Minnesota because of the lack of snow cover there. Additionally, Lake Bronson is a shallow lake with a river running through it. Birch Lake looks locked tightly to the shore by ice to me. Even the ice on shallow lakes in the Twin Cities has only let loose from shore. Its getting darker though.
trekronor	04/26/2018 09:53AM AndyEck84: "Any chance the MN DNR ice out page is just not updated regularly? How has that Bronson lake way up north reported ice out and no one else has? " I'm beginning to wonder what's going on. If you look at the webcam for Birch in particular (http://www.elyminnesota.com/live-webcams) it doesn't look like there's a whole lot of ice out there. I may be completely wrong, and it's hard to say, but it doesn't look as bad as I thought it was. I also had been checking that site and was pretty upset about how Shagwa Lake Float Planes was looking, but just now realized the camera seems to be stuck on March 1's image!
AndyEck84	04/26/2018 09:37AM Any chance the MN DNR ice out page is just not updated regularly? How has that Bronson lake way up north reported ice out and no one else has?
HighnDry	04/26/2018 07:33AM
primitiveguy	04/25/2018 08:50PM mvgarceau: "Clearwater Lodge off the Gunflint Trail reported 22" of ice today on Clearwater Lake. Wow. Maybe I'd better push my May 18 visit back to Memorial Day wknd! https://instagram.com/p/BiAsmI8l8CM/"I’m going in on May 10 at entry 16. Nina moose river will be open for sure so Ill be in the BWCA on the opener. Jon
mvgarceau	04/25/2018 07:23PM Clearwater Lodge off the Gunflint Trail reported 22" of ice today on Clearwater Lake. Wow. Maybe I'd better push my May 18 visit back to Memorial Day wknd! https://instagram.com/p/BiAsmI8l8CM/
trekronor	04/25/2018 09:08AM You guys are killing my optimism! It's been in the 50's and 60's where I'm at, so it seems like everything up north should be fully thawed. I know that's not reality, but it's hard to imagine 24" of ice/snow when I'm sitting outside smoking a cigar. It looks like next week is going to be an important one with 4 days forecasted to be in the 60's and 70's in Ely. Still planning to come up for the opener. I'll bring my river fishing gear if I need to!
The Great Outdoors	04/25/2018 07:33AM TheGreatIndoors: "The Fortune Bay Resort and Casino posted a video showing ice on Lake Vermillion has gone from 33" to 28" in a week (April 17th-24th). Mille Lacs and another smaller local lake are the same thickness 28" and 26". Green Lake near Minneapolis had 24" as of Sunday . Yikes. " 18 degrees at Burntside Lake near Ely at 6 this morning, 24 degrees at 10 last night!! This is not helping.
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TheGreatIndoors	04/24/2018 11:05PM The Fortune Bay Resort and Casino posted a video showing ice on Lake Vermillion has gone from 33" to 28" in a week (April 17th-24th). Mille Lacs and another smaller local lake are the same thickness 28" and 26". Green Lake near Minneapolis had 24" as of Sunday . Yikes.
The Great Outdoors	04/24/2018 10:05PM manmountain8: "TheGreatIndoors: "TGO, that is not comforting! We may be stuck hanging out in ELY drinking with you if the forecast doesn't pick back up. A couple days near 70 is probably not going to cut it! Any signs of hope? I hear there is some open water on rivers in the area. Is that right?" Here is the Ely forecast for the last 2 weeks before the opener. April 29th to May 11th. It will only be below freezing for a grand total of 5 hours out of 336. Do you really think the ice can survive that? High Low 68 48 66 48 68 40 67 34 70 29 57 31 59 33 58 35 60 32 58 33 64 35 63 35 65 30" As I look at these figures, 10 out of 13 have low temps at or near freezing. It was 27 degrees this morning which was about 6 degrees cooler than predicted. Even with the nice daytime temps, the nights need to stay in the upper 40's to do the damage needed, and get the snow off the lakes. Once the snow is gone, the ice can melt quickly. Never say never, but I don't see the ice being off most of the lakes by the opener without some rain???
manmountain8	04/24/2018 09:32PM The shorelines and shallow bays are ice free in the Twin Cities today.
manmountain8	04/24/2018 09:18PM TheGreatIndoors: "TGO, that is not comforting! We may be stuck hanging out in ELY drinking with you if the forecast doesn't pick back up. A couple days near 70 is probably not going to cut it! Any signs of hope? I hear there is some open water on rivers in the area. Is that right?" Here is the Ely forecast for the last 2 weeks before the opener. April 29th to May 11th. It will only be below freezing for a grand total of 5 hours out of 336. Do you really think the ice can survive that? High Low 68 48 66 48 68 40 67 34 70 29 57 31 59 33 58 35 60 32 58 33 64 35 63 35 65 30
	04/24/2018 09:12PM Pepin goes out first only because they run an ice-breaking barge up it to expedite barge traffic on the river...which they just did last week.
IowaGuy	04/24/2018 08:01PM Does late ice-out also generally mean later mosquito conditions? Heading in for a week starting on Memorial Day, hoping the insects are late as well :-)
The Great Outdoors	04/24/2018 02:52PM Hard to tell on the lakes, but a lot in the woods in many places.
Huntman94	04/24/2018 11:54AM The Great Outdoors: "However, after riding around Shagawa Lake this afternoon observing the ice conditions, I will rest well knowing will enjoy the drink of your choice in a glass filled with ice from lakes in the Ely area on the fishing opener. :)" How much snow is there on the lakes and also in the woods? Thanks
The Great Outdoors	04/24/2018 07:45AM Rivers are opening up slowly, depending on the amount of current, so most all of them will be open by the 12th. It was 27 degrees here this morning, and the next 6 days look to have lows at or below freezing for night temps. In early May the day temps get very nice, but night may need to get warmer to pull off an opening day ice free miracle?? Again, a period of rain (3-5 days) would/should assure a normal opener as far as ice goes.
TheGreatIndoors	04/24/2018 01:00AM TGO, that is not comforting! We may be stuck hanging out in ELY drinking with you if the forecast doesn't pick back up. A couple days near 70 is probably not going to cut it! Any signs of hope? I hear there is some open water on rivers in the area. Is that right?
The Great Outdoors	04/23/2018 09:25PM Well GreatIndoors, first of all, I don't usually drink IPA or Shirley Temples which are darn near the same thing! However, after riding around Shagawa Lake this afternoon observing the ice conditions, I will rest well knowing will enjoy the drink of your choice in a glass filled with ice from lakes in the Ely area on the fishing opener. :)
Ranger1	04/23/2018 01:47PM TGO, there's your rain!
dasunt	04/23/2018 12:14AM I have a hypothesis that wind is also important, to prevent a layer of cold air from staying over a lake and hindering the ice melt.
TheGreatIndoors	04/22/2018 12:18PM I compared all the ice out dates recorded for Shagawa, Gunflint, and Pepin on the MN DNR page. Ice out on Pepin occurred on Friday, April 20th, 2018. (Note that this is the latest in recent history on the MN DNR page, but It was often this late in the early 1900's and throughout 1800's). How many days before Ice is out on Shagawa and Gunflint? Shagawa: 24.8 Days after Pepin on average - 39% of the time ice is gone in 20 days after Pepin (before opener this year) - 70% of the time ice is gone in 30 days after Pepin (before May 20th this yr.) Gunflint: 29.8 Days after Pepin on average - 23% of the time ice is gone in 20 days after Pepin (before opener this year) - 42% of the time ice is gone in 30 days after Pepin (before May 20th this yr.) The sample size was a little small. (17 years where dates were reported for Gunflint and Pepin, 23 years where dates for both Shagawa and Pepin). I used the average number of days between Shagawa and Gunflint (5.5 days) to supplement the numbers for Gunflint. In other words, in years where Shagawa was reported and Gunflint was not, I estimated the date for Gunflint by adding 5.5 days to the ice out date for Shagawa. This way the sample size was 23 years for both lakes. In ~25% of the years on record, it took two weeks or less before Shagawa or Gunflint followed Pepin. Given that we are much later in the spring this year, and the forecast is looking good, the number of days before ice out should be on the shorter end of the range. Using that as a basis for an educated guess, I put us at 40-50% chance of ice out by the opener. On the other hand, if the amount of ice matters (as many people here seem to think), we will be on the long end of the range and my trip for the opener is hosed. As I've said before, my hunch is that the conditions of the melting will dominate the ice out date, so I still like my chances of ice out by opener. By the way, TGO, I like IPA. How about you?
manmountain8	04/20/2018 11:09PM HighnDry: "trekronor: "inspector13: " The first monitored "lake" had ice out today. Average ice out on Lake Pepin is March 31, but the winter of 1842-1843 must have been much worse than this year. Ice out was May 20th in 1843. " I just got really excited!!! Then I realized Pepin is about 300 miles south of BWCA. ..boo." It's the first domino to fall..." Pepin is always the first lake to go out and that is a good sign. It typically takes a month for the Northern Lakes to catch up but the forecast is predicting above average temps from here on out. Warmth, lots of Sunshine, and wind. I used accuweather to predict how much ice would melt each day if the forecast is correct and I came up with a general guesstimate of May 8th for Ice Out in Northern MN. Many of the overnight lows that will be below freezing are only for an hour or two just before dawn. It's gonna be 60 in Ely on Monday. There are only 2 days below 50 from now till the opener. I think it's looking good.
sns	04/20/2018 08:56PM A mere wide spot in the River! :-)
HighnDry	04/20/2018 07:57PM trekronor: "inspector13: " The first monitored "lake" had ice out today. Average ice out on Lake Pepin is March 31, but the winter of 1842-1843 must have been much worse than this year. Ice out was May 20th in 1843. " I just got really excited!!! Then I realized Pepin is about 300 miles south of BWCA. ..boo." It's the first domino to fall...
Laketrout63	04/20/2018 04:23PM Plus there was no nuclear power plant feeding warm water into the lake! Marc
Laketrout63	04/20/2018 04:23PM Plus there was no nuclear power plant feeding warm water into the lake! Marc
trekronor	04/20/2018 02:52PM inspector13: " The first monitored "lake" had ice out today. Average ice out on Lake Pepin is March 31, but the winter of 1842-1843 must have been much worse than this year. Ice out was May 20th in 1843. " I just got really excited!!! Then I realized Pepin is about 300 miles south of BWCA. ..boo.
inspector13	04/20/2018 02:27PM The first monitored "lake" had ice out today. Average ice out on Lake Pepin is March 31, but the winter of 1842-1843 must have been much worse than this year. Ice out was May 20th in 1843.
Kraig in Duluth	04/19/2018 06:42PM We always head out the Thursday after the opener, usually up toward the end of the Gunflint by Seagull for Lakers. We have had a couple close calls with the ice but have never had to cancel yet. Decided to try something new this year and we are going to SAK out of Moose. Starting to think we may have picked the wrong year to try it out up there...
Bdubr	04/19/2018 11:03AM Still planning on heading in on May 15th, entering EP 14. Still very optimistic about ice out. Looking forward to shallow lake trout and less traffic!
Duboly	04/18/2018 01:11PM It won't be long now!
The Great Outdoors	04/18/2018 03:02AM HighnDry: "I read that as well and then pulled up the 2017 map for comparison - a world of difference but last year was a bit of an anomaly with the warm temps early." Last year was different because there was no snow to speak of, and the ice melted rather quickly. A lot different this year.
The Great Outdoors	04/18/2018 02:55AM Ranger1: " As TGO has said multiple times above, the cold nights don't help us, but this 10 day for Ely has me feeling somewhat encouraged. Next week shows mid to high 50's, high daily winds, and persistent sunshine. The extended forecast shows a lot of the same, take it for what it's worth. We just might make it..." I see some nice daytime temps coming in the 14 day forecast for Ely, BUT 11 of them will fall below freezing at night.
HighnDry	04/17/2018 08:59PM I read that as well and then pulled up the 2017 map for comparison - a world of difference but last year was a bit of an anomaly with the warm temps early.
WhiteWolf	04/17/2018 04:35PM from the DNR site- "As of April 17 there are no reports of lakes in Minnesota that are ice free." that is remarkable.
HighnDry	04/17/2018 04:20PM 60s in the twin cities for next week. We'll see.
Ranger1	04/17/2018 12:00PM As TGO has said multiple times above, the cold nights don't help us, but this 10 day for Ely has me feeling somewhat encouraged. Next week shows mid to high 50's, high daily winds, and persistent sunshine. The extended forecast shows a lot of the same, take it for what it's worth. We just might make it...
Tyler W	04/16/2018 02:04PM Actually this is pretty accurate to my anxiety level about the viability of my trip for EP 27 Snowbank on May 16th." My Snowbank trip is also May 16th. I am thinking of reserving a back up permit, which will be canceled as soon as I know Snowbank is ice free. Thoughts?
BigBearArlich	04/16/2018 01:48PM TheGreatIndoors: "Another handy chart showing how temps evolved in 2014, 2017, and this year. We have some work to do. Notice how 2014 had a hard time getting up to the average high. " Actually this is pretty accurate to my anxiety level about the viability of my trip for EP 27 Snowbank on May 16th.
OgimaaBines	04/16/2018 01:26PM WalleyeHunter24: "dasunt: "I made a spreadsheet today. Right now, the forecast is running two weeks behind median temperatures. I'm getting a little worried about our planned 5/12 trip off the Echo Trail." I'm headed in the week after you, please post if you are able (or not able) to get in. Thanks!" Me too. I'll be anxiously waiting for some reports. I'm heading in on the 17th. :/
OgimaaBines	04/16/2018 01:26PM WalleyeHunter24: "dasunt: "I made a spreadsheet today. Right now, the forecast is running two weeks behind median temperatures. I'm getting a little worried about our planned 5/12 trip off the Echo Trail." I'm headed in the week after you, please post if you are able (or not able) to get in. Thanks!" Me too. I'll be anxiously waiting for some reports. I'm heading in on the 17th. :/
trekronor	04/16/2018 12:21PM I'm staying at a cabin and was planning to just drive to and drop a canoe at a few different lakes to fish for the opener. Are there some lakes which might thaw sooner, or maybe some streams? I don't really want to cancel my trip because...well, that weekend is my only chance to go fishing up north in 2018. So I've got to find a way to make it work, one way or another.
nlong	04/16/2018 12:15PM Snowbank Lake EP on May 28th. I'm wondering if I should bring my boat or snowshoes at this rate. I suppose I could always hike the Kek trail if this ice age doesn't end, but I'm really looking forward to fishing instead.
The Great Outdoors	04/16/2018 12:11PM Well, we got another 10 inches of snow at Burntside Lake last night, so one more nail in the ice free by the opener coffin!!! Damn!! :(
WalleyeHunter24	04/16/2018 11:07AM dasunt: "I made a spreadsheet today. Right now, the forecast is running two weeks behind median temperatures. I'm getting a little worried about our planned 5/12 trip off the Echo Trail." I'm headed in the week after you, please post if you are able (or not able) to get in. Thanks!
WhiteWolf	04/16/2018 02:13AM Lots of adjustment needed to switch this pattern. It's coming , but stay patient. Enjoy the weather- it's the only weather you got.
bwcadan	04/15/2018 09:15AM In the interest of "winning" the contest: S May 14 G May 21 Hopefully, no one will attempt walking on thick ice which has eroded into a shell of itself.
The Great Outdoors	04/14/2018 11:51PM The temps for the end of April have been upgraded, (for now, since they change daily) and it looks a bit better. But will still need a period of rain and wind for you to have any chance for the beers to be on me when you are in Ely!!! :)
TheGreatIndoors	04/14/2018 12:17PM The Great Outdoors: "Ya gotta quit thinking with your heart, man!!" You are right, its probably too much to hope for, but I have lost on the river with so many strong hands that I will hold out hope for the best and plan for worse. I know I'm behind but if I'm right, the next time I'm in Ely, beers are on you! We are trying to decide which day in a 10 day period the ice will melt. Its not a big range and it's a sensitive function of the weather. P.S. I chose my name after seeing yours, but I never thought we'd have a virtual head-to-head grudge match.
WhiteWolf	04/14/2018 10:57AM It's getting late early this year with the ice having some deep depth.... It’s like déjà vu all over again.
The Great Outdoors	04/14/2018 10:07AM Ya gotta quit thinking with your heart, man!! The ice ain't gonna leave without some very warm temps and rain, and I don't see that happening in any forecasts I'm looking at! Time to start writing your concession speech to Mother Nature, she won!! :)
TheGreatIndoors	04/14/2018 08:13AM The Great Outdoors: "Cannot remember which year, 2013 or 2014, had the latest ice off date." 2014 was very late and 2017 was early. That's why I picked them for the chart above. We're behind 2014 at this point, but the forecast looks much better than 2014, so assuming that is right you might predict ice out will be earlier than 2014.
The Great Outdoors	04/14/2018 07:25AM Cannot remember which year, 2013 or 2014, had the latest ice off date. One year had ice on for the opener, then opened up just before the 2nd weekend. The other had ice off a day or two before the opener. Again, rain is the wild card, without it not much chance of open water on most of the lakes in northern Minnesota by May 12th.
TheGreatIndoors	04/14/2018 12:42AM Another handy chart showing how temps evolved in 2014, 2017, and this year. We have some work to do. Notice how 2014 had a hard time getting up to the average high.
TheGreatIndoors	04/13/2018 11:32PM Tyler W: " Here in the Metro small areas of open water are expanding slowly despite the cold temps. Sunshine has an impact even if temps are near freezing. But, with lakes covered in snow the sunshine can't even get to the ice. " The water beneath the ice also melts the ice. You can see a layer of slush on the ice on Seagull webcam. Seagull Webcam
TheGreatIndoors	04/13/2018 09:40AM Tyler W: "That being said, we are experiencing a record cold April. It stands to reason that a record cold April should have a record late ice out." Therein lies the question! I believe it costs $10 to change your entry permit as long as its done ahead of time.
Tyler W	04/13/2018 09:05AM I think it is too close to call. I have a trip planned for Snowbank on May 17th. I wish I was going in on a river... or at least a smaller lake. Here in the Metro small areas of open water are expanding slowly despite the cold temps. Sunshine has an impact even if temps are near freezing. But, with lakes covered in snow the sunshine can't even get to the ice. That being said, we are experiencing a record cold April. It stands to reason that a record cold April should have a record late ice out. If that is true, TheGreatIndoor's graph doesn't provide me much comfort. Those lakes have had ice on May 15th plenty of times. If 2018 is a new record Gunflint could be in June!
TheGreatIndoors	04/13/2018 08:49AM I've been to your shop! Years ago... You are much more likely to be right than some turkey reading wepages from his "desk". Sawbill's newsletter said 2 feet of ice with a layer of slush on April 3 of last year. 2.5 weeks of spring temps and a little rain got the job done. As of a few days ago, Sawbill has 2 feet of ice and 15 inches of hard packed snow. We'll see how things evolve! The one thing that makes me optimistic is the speed at which things can melt. Ice out almost always happens within the same 3 week period (see cute chart above)! My reading is that the ice out date is controlled by the warming, not how cold it was that winter or how thick the ice was when it started melting. Sure we are behind, and things are only slowly warming up, but once they do, its reasonable to expect it will go quickly. 4 weeks before opener and spring temps just week away. A desperate mans dreams. We are not folding our cards, because we expect that some water will be open, just not lake trout water, which probably means there will be fishing but not much catching.
The Great Outdoors	04/13/2018 07:19AM You gotta trust me on this one. Last year there wasn't a lick of snow on the ice, and it melted very fast. No so this year, and the night temps aren't looking good for the next two weeks. Unless we get rain and around the clock temps in the upper 40's or higher, I don't see ice being off by the opener. I do realize many people are hoping and predicting with their hearts since they have trips planned. I own a bait shop and am planning on getting a financial butt kicking this spring, as are the resorts who are already getting cancelations for the opener and a bit later.
TheGreatIndoors	04/13/2018 12:01AM The Great Outdoors: The warm days predicted will be undone by the night temps dropping into the 30's or cooler. " This is not true of last years conditions. Lows were mostly below freezing the last few weeks until ice out, which occurred on April 16 on Snowbank and April 23rd on Saganaga. April 2017 Temps.= This is a handy plot of the historical ice out on Shagawa and Gunflint made from the MN DNR website. Given how quickly the distribution falls off, it seems reasonable that ice will be out close to May 12th if temps return to average for a couple weeks.
dasunt	04/12/2018 10:44PM I'm looking at my cards, and I'm close to folding. I still think ice out in the Ely area by the May 12th is more likely than not, but I'm planning a group trip. I'll discuss this with the group, but rescheduling for May 28th seems to be a safer choice for weather.
The Great Outdoors	04/12/2018 10:43PM Not long IF the nights stay in the upper 40's or warmer, AND we get some rain for a week. The warm days predicted will be undone by the night temps dropping into the 30's or cooler.
manmountain8	04/12/2018 08:41PM Mjharge1: "Still planning going in at seagull lake may 17th. Not saying I’m not still worried somewhat, but I am more positive " Ely just had the first 2 days of average temperatures which are in the 40's. Then there will be 4 more days of below average temps and some possible snow. The warmup will start again on the 17th and climb from there. Starting on the 20th, high temps will be in the 50's for the rest of the month and by May 3rd they are predicting 60+, and even 2 days above 70 around May 7th. I don't know what that means for ice out but it seems promising. I don't know how long ice can last in 70 degrees. Do you?
TheGreatIndoors	04/12/2018 12:29PM Shagawa: May 14th Gunflint: May 25th Which is not no good for our trip scheduled for the opener!
CornellMN	04/11/2018 07:56PM The plan is to get up to South Temperance from Sawbill, I think I will know better next week, with the temp trends in the 15 day forecast. I got a feeling its going to very close to coming off in time, and yes this is a fishing trip for opener. Thank you!
Mjharge1	04/11/2018 05:39AM Still planning going in at seagull lake may 17th. Watching the live webcam on seagull I’m encouraged with the latest weather reports and the change I’m seeing in the ice and snow on seagull. Going to be some serious melting going on the next couple weeks. So far they have missed most of the snow, I think they had flurries one day in the last month. Not saying I’m not still worried somewhat, but I am more positive
Birdknowsbest	04/10/2018 10:44PM We havent figured the date of our annual spring trip due to the cold temps. Its a fishing based trip so we dont lock in an EP until we know ice is out and hopefully time the fishing right. As someone above pointed out, check out the link to Sawbill outfitters. Here is what they said. "4/6/18 - The first official ice measurement of the spring reports 15" plus of hard packed snow (perfect for skiing not so much for ice melting), followed by 24" of crystal clear solid ice. So far we're off to a slow start with more cold weather in the forecast, but we'll keep updating as things progress." Thats a lot. My WI opener near Hayward is seriously in doubt as well as its May 3rd. But we are in a cabin so we might just have to play more euchre. 40 inches total of ice and hard snow. I think anyone going to gunflint for opener should change their mind. The forecast in the cities has nights below freezing 6 of the next 8 nights. I imagine up north will be colder. I think the first 2 weekends are in jeopardy. I dont want to be debbie downer, but idk what to say. Ely should open before the GFT. To the new member that asked about a May29th-June 3rd trip. You should be fine by then. Hopefully ;) We got spoiled by the early spring last year. Not much we can do about it. I also love to golf so this spring is brutal.
WhiteWolf	04/10/2018 04:15AM CornellMN: "I'm going in from #38 on May 11th, so I hope the ice is out before that!" You can follow the progress of ice out on Sawbill here.
CornellMN	04/09/2018 08:01PM I'm going in from #38 on May 11th, so I hope the ice is out before that!
HighnDry	04/09/2018 07:57PM You may be right about those lakes. We're guessing Shagawa and Gunflint if you would like to take a stab at those.
Duboly	04/09/2018 04:18PM Basswood June 10 Brule June 21 Trout Lake July 7 What? The entry date has been missed? ended April 7th? I just didn't want crowds of people when I got there.
Rs130754	04/08/2018 09:08PM canoe212: "Getting close. The ponds along highway 20 in Iowa are just out a couple days ago." I see your from independence. My mom was from there. The home farm is on old 20, last I knew my grandpa's initials were still on the silo there, LW Pint. My other grandpa worked for the railroad, got drunk and into a fight and was thrown over the damn. They found him three days later with a broken leg. I need to make a trip back it has been years.
The Great Outdoors	04/07/2018 03:18PM hut301: "Gunflint May 8 Shagawa April 28 I am hoping to do a trip the weekend of May 4-6 to travel as the ice breaks up. Anyone interested in joining me please message me. " Instead of a canoe, better choose between CCM's and Bauer's!!!! :) Shagawa: May 15th Gunflint: May 25th
hut301	04/07/2018 11:26AM Gunflint May 8 Shagawa April 28 I am hoping to do a trip the weekend of May 4-6 to travel as the ice breaks up. Anyone interested in joining me please message me.
egknuti	04/06/2018 07:01PM Shag: May 10 GunF: May 13
HighnDry	04/06/2018 03:16PM trekronor: "I'm a newbie (to the forum and BWCA) but I also have a weekend opener trip planned, May 12 - 15. Since it's our first time there my buddy and I decided to stay at a cabin instead of camping. I'm happy we went that route! Hoping things warm up soon. I've been checking the forecast twice a day, but it turns out that doesn't make it any warmer ;)" Welcome to the site!
manmountain8	04/06/2018 01:22PM Accuweather forecasts for Ely say the first warm day is April 17th. 55 on April 20th followed by lower 50's for the rest of April. The First 60+ day is predicted as May 3 and they have May 7th at 70. The Problem is the overnight low does not hit 40 until May 10th. They do predict warm weather for the opener weekend although it's way too early to put any stock in these forecasts. If this forecast winds up being accurate when do you think ice out would be? I'm supposed to be heading out to Basswood on May 11th. I might be fishing deadbait afterall.
trekronor	04/06/2018 11:35AM I'm a newbie (to the forum and BWCA) but I also have a weekend opener trip planned, May 12 - 15. Since it's our first time there my buddy and I decided to stay at a cabin instead of camping. I'm happy we went that route! Hoping things warm up soon. I've been checking the forecast twice a day, but it turns out that doesn't make it any warmer ;)
The Great Outdoors	04/06/2018 08:15AM dasunt: "I made a spreadsheet today. Right now, the forecast is running two weeks behind median temperatures. I'm getting a little worried about our planned 5/12 trip off the Echo Trail." I don't blame you. The forecast until April 16th is looking very cold and we won't lose any ice or snow to speak of by that time. Don't want to sound like a broken record, but we will need at least 10 days or more of warm weather with rain, and the night temps to stay in the upper 40's to get rid of the ice by the opener. Not looking good!! :(
dasunt	04/06/2018 12:01AM I made a spreadsheet today. Right now, the forecast is running two weeks behind median temperatures. I'm getting a little worried about our planned 5/12 trip off the Echo Trail.
katoyaker	04/05/2018 08:59PM S = 18 May G= 4 June Depends on wind. Down here (Mankato) it whipped for a while, but the snow on the ice has prevented significant damage to the ice. Still folks out chasing panfish and dragging out, some of the latest ice I remember where you could still get off of shore.
VaderStrom	04/05/2018 03:20PM Mid June water is going to feel like May water at this rate...Should be better fishing though? SW - 5/5 GF - 5/15
egknuti	04/04/2018 08:25PM HighnDry: "What's your estimate for an ice-out on Shagawa (and Gunflint) given the snow depth you encountered?" At this point, anybody’s guess. The next two weeks don’t look promising, but a temperature swing could melt the ice quickly. I’d give it three more weeks before panic sets in.
Abbey	04/04/2018 08:14PM Based on the current temperatures, everyone also needs to state if their ice out estimate is in 2018 or carryover to 2019.
mapsguy1955	04/04/2018 03:17PM I'm not sure how these relate to Quetico... When I see a guess of June 2 on Gunflint, I get a bit scared! Any guesses on Pickerel? permit for 5/18...
schweady	04/04/2018 08:52AM Shagawa - May 15 Gunflint - June 2
HighnDry	04/04/2018 07:28AM What's your estimate for an ice-out on Shagawa (and Gunflint) given the snow depth you encountered?
egknuti	04/03/2018 08:53PM Just skate skied a lake north of Ely. Still snow covered. This week looks like no melting of snow or ice! Better warm up soon.
shock	04/03/2018 05:47PM Shagawa May 4th Gunflint May 15th Will TGO supply the dynamite ?
WhiteWolf	04/03/2018 07:48AM lets get some more educated guesses soon!!! I say we put a deadline for entries this Saturday 4/7 for guesses. Otherwise it's getting to obvious. Closest to both on avg wins. Winner gets a smallmouth guided trip from TGO on his lake of choice!!@
shock	04/02/2018 04:42PM TheGreatIndoors: "shock: "I would reserve a permit for the following weekend possibly the 2nd weekend after opener ." Too late, not possible! " what about changing entry point , Ely area ?
jamotrade	04/02/2018 01:51PM Gunflint 5/9 Shagawa 4/24
TheGreatIndoors	04/02/2018 01:43PM shock: "I would reserve a permit for the following weekend possibly the 2nd weekend after opener ." Too late, not possible!
shock	04/02/2018 01:32PM TheGreatIndoors: "Starting to get nervous! A group of six registered, reserved, and invested in a trip scheduled for the opener. Leaving from Gunflint via Sag, or so we thought. I've been checking the 10-day forecast every 6 hours for the last week. Finally, things beginning to return to normal. Fingers crossed that next week is a little wetter and a little warmer than forecast. Any suggestions for alternate entry points on the Gunflint side if things are slow to thaw?" Gunflint lake is usually the last to open up , so yes your opener trip is definitely in doubt , i would reserve a permit for the following weekend possibly the 2nd weekend after opener .
TheGreatIndoors	04/02/2018 09:14AM Starting to get nervous! A group of six registered, reserved, and invested in a trip scheduled for the opener. Leaving from Gunflint via Sag, or so we thought. I've been checking the 10-day forecast every 6 hours for the last week. Finally, things beginning to return to normal. Fingers crossed that next week is a little wetter and a little warmer than forecast. Any suggestions for alternate entry points on the Gunflint side if things are slow to thaw?
The Great Outdoors	04/01/2018 08:24PM shock: "manmountain8: "Accuweather is predicting 70 in early may and upper 50's to lower 60's for the opener. If they are correct Ice should go out around April 25th." things can change fast once the low's start staying above 32* But i think people who planned a trip the week after opener will run into some great lake trout fishing ;)" Yup, and a good possibility that you could bring an auger and fish with two lines!!! :)
WhiteWolf	04/01/2018 04:38PM Shagawa- May 7th (3:32 PM) Gunflint - May 17th (5:54 PM)
Mocha	04/01/2018 03:29PM not trying to change any minds but i just heard from up north... gunflint still has 40 inches of ice... yikes!~
dasunt	04/01/2018 02:28PM Shagawa: 4/30 Gunflint: 5/7 (hopefully not stepping on BWPaddler's toes with this guess.)
shock	03/31/2018 10:57PM pic from the rog portage looking out into seagull , friday before opener 1992 ? got to the end of 3 mile and it was locked up , visually saw a path and happen to make it to the rog portage.
HighnDry	03/31/2018 10:29PM Choose some dates :)
shock	03/31/2018 07:08PM manmountain8: "Accuweather is predicting 70 in early may and upper 50's to lower 60's for the opener. If they are correct Ice should go out around April 25th." things can change fast once the low's start staying above 32* But i think people who planned a trip the week after opener will run into some great lake trout fishing ;)
AndyEck84	03/31/2018 06:06PM First time visitor to BWCA this May. I want to experience the amazing smallmouth fishing everyone talks about. Should I be concerned about bad fishing on May 29-June 3 because of the anticipated late ice out? Or do I need to "chill" out?
The Great Outdoors	03/31/2018 12:38PM I didn't think they even knew what ice was in the deep south where you live now, Sheryl!! :)
Mocha	03/31/2018 09:15AM The Great Outdoors: "Mocha: "gunflint May 11 shagawa april 27" Looking bad for you Sheryl!! If we don't get some very warm weather and rain, I truly believe that the lakes will be ice covered on the opener. The current forecast up until April 14th is not going to take the ice off. Damn!!!!! :(" well, i don't need to worry about ice out in northern MN anymore! now i watch the MN and Cottonwood rivers near flood stage, no ice on those rivers anymore.
manmountain8	03/31/2018 12:23AM Accuweather is predicting 70 in early may and upper 50's to lower 60's for the opener. If they are correct Ice should go out around April 25th.
BWPaddler	03/28/2018 09:13PM Gunflint May 7 Shagawa April 25
The Great Outdoors	03/28/2018 09:06PM Mocha: "gunflint May 11 shagawa april 27" Looking bad for you Sheryl!! If we don't get some very warm weather and rain, I truly believe that the lakes will be ice covered on the opener. The current forecast up until April 14th is not going to take the ice off. Damn!!!!! :(
Mocha	03/28/2018 07:55PM gunflint May 11 shagawa april 27
HighnDry	03/28/2018 01:06PM You have to pick dates for each lake :)
sns	03/28/2018 11:13AM HighnDry: " Gunflint: May 22nd, 2018 Shagawa: May 10th, 2018 Guess away!" Can I take the Over?
HighnDry	03/27/2018 02:27PM In the past, we've always (or usually) picked Gunflint and Shagawa (Ely area) and asked for volunteers to check on these lakes. It goes kind of like this: Gunflint: May 22nd, 2018 Shagawa: May 10th, 2018 Guess away!
Teenda	03/19/2018 07:39PM My pond has been completely frozen for about 3 weeks total this year, otherwise just a thin ice glaze for 75% of the remaining winter mornings... Anyone need an auger, very lightly used. HaHaHa! (Northern Indiana) Fall then winter are my favorite seasons. I wish we had real winters sometimes. Otherwise, it's just brown and cold. . . Happy May tripping to all you early birds!
schweady	03/19/2018 03:20PM Drilled through 32 inches of ice on Long Lake by Vergas last Saturday.
Mjharge1	03/18/2018 05:21PM Meant to say on seagull lake
Mjharge1	03/18/2018 05:19PM I’m getting a little worried about may 17th trip, being out and being out long enough for good fishing
Jaywalker	03/18/2018 04:15PM schweady: "Mocha - I think this is just a general information post. Not a contest. " Then how do we know who wins? FWIW, I had to drill through a solid 30 inches last week just south of the Gunflint.
schweady	03/14/2018 07:13PM Mocha - I think this is just a general information post. Not a contest.
Mocha	03/14/2018 03:09PM is there a specific lake we're guessing about?
canoe212	03/13/2018 09:41AM Getting close. The ponds along highway 20 in Iowa are just out a couple days ago.
adam	03/13/2018 06:39AM Pinning a thread for 2018 discussion. Feel free to discuss, make your prediction, or post pictures of crazy early season trips. Check out the DNR Ice out map to gauge historical ice out or monitor ice out as it moves north. It can vary significantly with 2012 having ice out at the end of March while 2013 and 2014 extended into May.