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Date/Time: 03/28/2024 10:41AM
My predictions for Quetico 2021

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Previous Messages:
Author Message Text
mapsguy1955 12/13/2020 10:12PM
TechnoScout: "mapsguy1955: "If masks didn’t HELP they wouldn’t wear them in surgical situations. "
That is a massive oversimplification.



Read these and give me your thoughts:
Macro study 1
Macro study 2 "



My ONLY point is that masks are, at least, somewhat effective in preventing bad things from going from my body into yours and vice versa. It may be an oversimplification but it seems to me that most of the people on the anti side don’t seem to be able to comprehend anything complicated.
Minnesotian 12/13/2020 07:01PM
TechnoScout: "
I have wondered...is Quetico any better? "



I hope you get the opportunity to make that judgement in person.


Once I started going to Quetico, my desire to revisit the BWCA greatly diminished.
TechnoScout 12/13/2020 06:25PM
BnD: "It continues to amaze me the large percentage of Americans that deny all science despite evidence, facts and research supporting contagious disease mediation, climate change, etc.... all based on fantastical unsupportable statements on social media that have zero basis in supportable facts. It’s simply both inexplicable and sad. Believe none of what you hear and half of what you read and you’ll get closer to the facts.


As far as my opinion on Quetico 2021. I am planning a BWCA trip rather than a Wabakimi and fly in outpost trip for 2021. That sums up my thoughts on the Canada border opening by summer 2021. I hope I am incorrect."



I think we are of one mind on this...not 100% sure. But, regarding quetico...I have never been. 11 trips to bwcaw, and have a quetico trip in my head, but in 2021, I will be going, God willing, to BWCA and hoping that all of the quetico trippers get to go there because this year BWCA was grand central station due to the border closing.


I have wondered...is Quetico any better? My suspicion is that you can have greater solitude which is a big plus for me, but scanning the horizon...prolly see the same thing. Maybe fishing is better...dunno.
TechnoScout 12/13/2020 05:08PM
TrailZen: " No Mask, No Problem



TZ"



Cute...funny...devoid of science.
BnD 12/13/2020 05:03PM
It continues to amaze me the large percentage of Americans that deny all science despite evidence, facts and research supporting contagious disease mediation, climate change, etc.... all based on fantastical unsupportable statements on social media that have zero basis in supportable facts. It’s simply both inexplicable and sad. Believe none of what you hear and half of what you read and you’ll get closer to the facts.

As far as my opinion on Quetico 2021. I am planning a BWCA trip rather than a Wabakimi and fly in outpost trip for 2021. That sums up my thoughts on the Canada border opening by summer 2021. I hope I am incorrect.
TrailZen 12/13/2020 04:28PM
No Mask, No Problem


TZ
marsonite 12/13/2020 03:30PM
Wharfrat, your math is a bit off. By your reasoning, you have a .3% chance of catching it, FROM ONE PERSON. Of course, you will encounter more than a single person in a bar, church, restaurant whatever.

I think the point so many people miss is that the real public health threat here is that if you let Covid rip, you will overwhelm the hospitals. Stop and think about it. You get covid, you're one of the unlucky ones who needs a hospital, what then? Not to mention needing emergency heart surgery, stroke, whatever. That is the situation we are trying to prevent.
LarryS48 12/13/2020 01:17PM
By your logic, we probably should stop fighting cancer, heart disease, and preventing traffic accidents all of which kill fewer people than Covid. Really?
Banksiana 12/13/2020 01:16PM
** Based on those numbers the probability that you will catch COVID in the US is 0.3%.



16.2 million cases out of 328 million people = 5%
Wharfrot-
Whatever. Be a troll. Be a dick. The disease is real. The damage is real. Perhaps true asymptomatic spread is rare or even impossible- doesn't matter.

What is your point? That you shouldn't have to wear a mask because you are CERTAIN you don't carry the virus because you have no symptoms and have "proven" that asymptomatic transmission doesn't exist. This either assumes that you are one of the rare people that can ascertain that they pose no viral threat or that the spread of virus is due to people who know they are viral threats but don't give a shit. In that case what we are seeing in the surge is either people deliberately spreading the virus or not understanding the implications of the symptoms they don't recognize as COVID. Your position is a smug supercilious pose; it brings no light to the problem of pandemic.
Wharfrat63 12/13/2020 12:03PM
Banksiana: "Wharfrat63: "billconner: "From the Danish study: "....casts more doubt on policies that force healthy individuals to wear face coverings."
May be true or nearly so but I believe the efficacy of masks comes from preventing people with covid from spreading it. "






So I have concluded, the heart of the matter with masks is asymptomatic spread...I need some proof that it does spread this way. Help me. Because I don't want to spend my hard earned cash on masks. And I hate seeing them on the streets, parks and waterways! I see them littered all over the AT, Yuck.




Wharfrat"




Try typing "asymptomatic COVID 19 spread" in the google search box. Best explanation come from Nature. My guess is you haven't tried very hard and prefer to hold tight to viral beliefs spread by politicians rather than scientists.



"



Google it...hahahaha...Google Al-Gore-Rhythms (Al Gore did invent the internet you know) throttles what you see.


That article that actually proves my point. If you read it, you would come the the conclusion that you have...But when I see lots of shoulds, mights, if's, probable's in the article I suspect it is a misrepresentation. And low behold it is:


If you look at the 3 referenced sources, only one has anything about Asymptomatic rates... and that paper says asymptomatic transmission rates are from 0-2.2% and that symptomatic 0.8% -15.4%.


The paper has 5 studies listed. Of those 2 had 0 transmission, 2 had 1 transmission and the larger study had 15...


So given these rough numbers a little math is in order:
This is for the US.
* Number of cases 16 million. Remember these are really number of tests not cases.
* Number recovered 9 million.
* 7 million currently with Covid (we will assume they are all symptomatic for this math exercise).
* 350 million US citizens.

** That gives us a probability of meeting someone with symptomatic covid at 2%. That is if they are all walking around outside, shopping and going to church.

** Now if you do sit next to a symptomatic church goer you have a 15% probability to catch the virus.

** Based on those numbers the probability that you will catch COVID in the US is 0.3%.

Now please don't take this as an endorsement of COVID is not bad or that I don't have empathy for those that have caught it and perished.


I don't agree with the measures based on what I have seen. Yep, we killed small business and a great economy for a virus that spreads so fast and furious that you have a 0.3% chance to catch it.


Thanks Banksiana for giving me the article that supports my point.


Wharfrat


LarryS48 12/13/2020 11:29AM
We should be careful not to make the perfect the enemy of the good. The effectiveness of masks will depend on the construction and proper use and fit of the mask. We should try and get as close to the perfect as possible, but failing that we should do the best we reasonably can. So, what are the extremes and what is reasonable?


Extreme 1: Every person should be given a complete Hazmat suit with a completely self contain breathing system.


Extreme 2: People should not be required to wear masks because they are not 100% effective and besides even if they are effective some people will wear them incorrectly.


I don’t see people arguing for extreme 1, but there are people arguing for extreme 2. So let’s address extreme 2 by suggesting something in the middle. The government should be helping people get the best masks they can, encouraging or mandating there use and instructing people on there proper use. So, what is a reasonably obtainable goal in terms PPE? That would depend on your situation. A very few may require a Hazmat suit. Most health care workers should have a regular supply of N95 masks. Essential worker that come in extensive contact with the public should have at least surgical masks and better yet N95 masks. For going out in public (which should be done as little as possible) people should use at least a well designed cloth mask worn correctly. Of course a better mask would be a bonus. People with serious health conditions that cannot wear a mask should social distance to the extreme.


PS. I am not suggesting extreme 1 is reasonable, so please don’t say I am.
TechnoScout 12/13/2020 10:52AM
mapsguy1955: "If masks didn’t HELP they wouldn’t wear them in surgical situations. "
That is a massive oversimplification.


Read these and give me your thoughts:
Macro study 1
Macro study 2
mapsguy1955 12/13/2020 10:31AM
If masks didn’t HELP they wouldn’t wear them in surgical situations.
TomT 12/13/2020 10:12AM
TechnoScout: "bobbernumber3: "TechnoScout: "....Fauci, himself, said masks were ineffective as a prophylactic back in March and only changed his tune ...."


People gotta let that one go as an argument against masks. He has changed his view period.
"



Nope. He has been fighting viruses for 30+ years. Yeah, CV19 is novel, but not in terms of the physics of transmission. His first response was what he really believes, IMO.
"



Here's what happened. Fauci lied about it being ok to not use masks because of the severe shortage of PPE at the time. He wanted to make sure the first responders and hospital workers had available masks. It was a mistake and bad judgement to do this but it happened. He was trying to protect the people most vulnerable. If we remember back to that time the hospitals did not have enough and forced the nurses etc. to reuse their ppe for multiple days.
Minnesotian 12/13/2020 10:05AM

Even with a vaccine in place, there will still be a percentage of the population that will refuse to take it.


Herd immunity is not achieved until 70% of the population has been infected and recovers or has gotten the vaccine. In the United States, this would be close to 200 million people, out of a population of 330 million. We have had about 16 to 17 million cases in the US.


In Canada, they have had only 500,000 cases out of a population of 37 million. Close to 27 million people in Canada will need the vaccine or to have recovered from the virus in order to achieve herd immunity.


In order for the world to achieve herd immunity, nearly 5 billion people will need to get the vaccine or recover from the virus. Officially, there has been close to 72 million cases worldwide.


In an ideal world, Pfizer is projecting to have manufactured 1 billion vaccines by the end of 2021, enough for 500 million people. Pfizer manufacturing


I do not see travel opening up between Canada and the US like we have had in the past for 2021. I can see travel being opened up to people that can produce documents saying they have been immunized. I think we will return to regular world wide travel once countries recognize that other countries have achieved herd immunity. So, eventually Canada may recognize that the US has reached it and open the border to US travelers, but Canada might not recognize that China has reached it and keep the border closed to Chinese travelers.


Buckle up. This virus is not going away anytime soon. And as long as there are people out there that refuse to get the vaccine, question mask usage, have social gatherings, and generally not care beyond their own selfish needs, this virus will be with us for a long time. The Flu of 1918 lasted for 2 years of infections with a world wide population of 1.8 billion.
Banksiana 12/13/2020 09:26AM
Wharfrat63: "billconner: "From the Danish study: "....casts more doubt on policies that force healthy individuals to wear face coverings."
May be true or nearly so but I believe the efficacy of masks comes from preventing people with covid from spreading it. "





So I have concluded, the heart of the matter with masks is asymptomatic spread...I need some proof that it does spread this way. Help me. Because I don't want to spend my hard earned cash on masks. And I hate seeing them on the streets, parks and waterways! I see them littered all over the AT, Yuck.



Wharfrat"



Try typing "asymptomatic COVID 19 spread" in the google search box. Best explanation come from Nature. My guess is you haven't tried very hard and prefer to hold tight to viral beliefs spread by politicians rather than scientists.


Wharfrat63 12/13/2020 08:40AM
billconner: "From the Danish study: "....casts more doubt on policies that force healthy individuals to wear face coverings."
May be true or nearly so but I believe the efficacy of masks comes from preventing people with covid from spreading it. "



Please help me with this....I have been asking everyone I know since May, can you show me something that says Asymptomatic Covid positive individuals shed the virus so much that they are the major cause of infection? No one has shown me anything. We have been conditioned to think, everyone is a disease vector. They could have it, so hide behind that mask where it is safe.


My point is that if you are sneezing and coughing with a cold or covid, common sense says some of the virus spores are captured. It is also common sense, when I put on a mask and my glasses fog up that aerosols escape with covid spores (if I have it). N95 masks filters up 3 microns. COVID is .25 microns. The virus is 12 times smaller than the hole in your N95 mask. Who knows what that factor is for the fancy cloth masks you made.


I really have not seen anyone sneeze or cough in public in months. Seems people who are sick now stay home. So all of this mask stuff comes down to asymptomatic spread. While it is common sense that you if you have the virus you could spread it, I have not seen anything that even come close to showing that is the case. It is certainly not with other viruses.


So I have concluded, the heart of the matter with masks is asymptomatic spread...I need some proof that it does spread this way. Help me. Because I don't want to spend my hard earned cash on masks. And I hate seeing them on the streets, parks and waterways! I see them littered all over the AT, Yuck.


Wharfrat
goatroti 12/12/2020 07:11PM



"CDN can shut their border...fine...it is their country. But my POINT which it seems all but one has missed is that the likelihood of catching covid in the quetico from anyone other than your traveling buddy is zero."


But Canada isn't just Quetico. There's plenty beyond that with 35,000,000+ people. You may find this unbelievable, but Americans who crossed the border this summer were found to be untrustworthy... they didn't go where they said they were going, they stopped at tourist spots, shopped for groceries and souvenirs, ate at restaurants... even after we kind, sweet and polite Canadians asked them to go directly to their destinations. The only people who ruined Quetico for you in 2021 and the near future are your fellow Americans. Not the Canadian or Ontario governments.
TechnoScout 12/12/2020 07:00PM
tumblehome: "The Mayo clinic would like to disagree with you technoscout.


Tom"



No they did not, but I am gonna let this just rest.


I hope everyone gets to go to the Quetico in 2021
billconner 12/12/2020 06:50PM
From the Danish study: "....casts more doubt on policies that force healthy individuals to wear face coverings."
May be true or nearly so but I believe the efficacy of masks comes from preventing people with covid from spreading it.
TechnoScout 12/12/2020 06:22PM
bobbernumber3: "TechnoScout: "....Fauci, himself, said masks were ineffective as a prophylactic back in March and only changed his tune ...."



People gotta let that one go as an argument against masks. He has changed his view period.


"



Nope. He has been fighting viruses for 30+ years. Yeah, CV19 is novel, but not in terms of the physics of transmission. His first response was what he really believes, IMO.


In terms of the disease itself, there are two important metrics to follow: 1) Excess deaths, and 2) Life years lost. Focusing on just deaths gives a false (or at least incomplete) message. Focusing on cases also gives an incomplete story. Evidently the PCR tests that are commonly administered are way too sensitive thus giving a positive result to someone who is not and will not be infections.


Older people are at risk and should avoid the opportunity for infection.


CDN can shut their border...fine...it is their country. But my POINT which it seems all but one has missed is that the likelihood of catching covid in the quetico from anyone other than your traveling buddy is zero.
tumblehome 12/12/2020 03:10PM
The Mayo clinic would like to disagree with you technoscout.

https://newsnetwork.mayoclinic.org/discussion/mayo-clinic-research-confirms-critical-role-of-masks-in-preventing-covid-19-infection/

Here's a snippit of the extensive article.

"We found the most important measure for reducing the risk of exposure to COVID-19 is to wear a mask," says Matthew Callstrom, M.D., Ph.D., chair of the department of radiology at Mayo Clinic in Minnesota. "We found that both disposable paper medical masks and two-layer cloth masks were effective in reducing droplet transmission and we did not find a difference between mask types in terms of how well they blocked aerosol particles emitted by the wearer."


I'm not only worried about deaths from covid but I'm worried about the effects on the body post covid as well as complications of the virus while infected. By now we all know people that have had it. I have heard direct first-hand stories that are not fun. And I know an acquaintance that died from it. He was a huge non-believer of the disease, but now he's dead.

I'm guessing the border will not open until June or July and then only for essential travel.

Tom
bobbernumber3 12/12/2020 03:05PM
TechnoScout: "....Fauci, himself, said masks were ineffective as a prophylactic back in March and only changed his tune ...."


People gotta let that one go as an argument against masks. Fauci has changed his view. period.


Regarding the Danish study of masks, the paper’s lead author, Dr. Henning Bundgaard of the specialty hospital Rigshospitalet and Copenhagen University Hospital, told Forbes “Even a small degree of protection is worth using the face masks,” he said, “because you are protecting yourself against a potentially life-threatening disease.”
TechnoScout 12/12/2020 02:40PM
outsidethebox: "TechnoScout: "mschi772: " Mask work"




The Danish study does not agree with you.
Danish Study



It may have some benefit if you are infected and shedding the virus, but a mask is not a prophylactic."




This Danish "study" that is making the rounds is not credible-that is putting it very nicely.



Masks made of "reasonable" material are very effective in protecting others and real studies indicate that well-made masks provide, at least some, wearer protection as well.



I am a lowly pediatric oncology nurse but the 3 physicians and 4 nurse practitioners in my family have this pretty well fleshed out. "

I am a lowly Ph.D. in engineering. I have studied this issue extensively--"fleshed out"--and I have a different view (droplets leaving the mouth/nose and arriving in a different mouth/nose/eye is a physics problem...not a biological one--it is only biological once it enters the human body). The only effective defense is distance. Fauci, himself, said masks were ineffective as a prophylactic back in March and only changed his tune when it became a hot issue. BTW...almost nobody is wearing a mask correctly which makes the idea even more of a farce.
outsidethebox 12/12/2020 11:10AM
TechnoScout: "mschi772: " Mask work"



The Danish study does not agree with you.
Danish Study


It may have some benefit if you are infected and shedding the virus, but a mask is not a prophylactic."



This Danish "study" that is making the rounds is not credible-that is putting it very nicely.


Masks made of "reasonable" material are very effective in protecting others and real studies indicate that well-made masks provide, at least some, wearer protection as well.


I am a lowly pediatric oncology nurse but the 3 physicians and 4 nurse practitioners in my family have this pretty well fleshed out.
Wharfrat63 12/12/2020 10:56AM
No visiting Canada this year. No hockey. No Quetico. Sorry, folks


But I have a solution that my state of Virginia thinks can control the virus: a midnight to 5am state-wide curfew.


Lets convince, Canada to implement this so we can visit. In
Virginia it is clear the virus is like a vampire and only comes out after midnight.







bobbernumber3 12/12/2020 10:48AM
TechnoScout: "....But my real point was that the probability of catching covid in the wilderness must be close to zero. Closing Quetico to minimize covid deaths seems to lack any scientific basis...."


Exactly. I think Canada is wanting to keep any potential cracks or chinks in their armor closed tight. We're more likely to catch covid on the trip to the border from our canoe partners.
TechnoScout 12/12/2020 09:35AM
bobbernumber3: "TechnoScout: "In the US, nearly half of the COVID deaths are in. or associated with nursing homes. Where are the nursing homes located in the Quetico?"



You are off a bit. And imply it is older residents dying. Nursing home deaths include many staff as well.



"By November 6, 2020, approximately 569,000–616,000 COVID-19 cases and 91,500 deaths were reported among LTCF residents and staff members in the United States, accounting for 6% of total state COVID-19 cases and 39% of deaths..."



CDC



Nursing homes in Quetico?"



Deaths due to covid are heavily weighted toward the elderly. Here are the excess death data (which include covid deaths): Excess deaths by age


From the Kaiser website (referenced by CDC article), 40% of deaths in LTC facilities. I have seen it variously reported at 43%. But my real point was that the probability of catching covid in the wilderness must be close to zero. Closing Quetico to minimize covid deaths seems to lack any scientific basis. OK...the naysayer will argue that support personnel (aka rangers) are now put at risk in order to serve the voyageurs. I suspect that these are people with a very low risk of being a victim of covid.
bobbernumber3 12/12/2020 08:55AM
TechnoScout: "In the US, nearly half of the COVID deaths are in. or associated with nursing homes. Where are the nursing homes located in the Quetico?"


You are off a bit. And imply it is older residents dying. Nursing home deaths include many staff as well.


"By November 6, 2020, approximately 569,000–616,000 COVID-19 cases and 91,500 deaths were reported among LTCF residents and staff members in the United States, accounting for 6% of total state COVID-19 cases and 39% of deaths..."


CDC


Nursing homes in Quetico?
TechnoScout 12/12/2020 07:31AM
mschi772: " Mask work"


The Danish study does not agree with you.
Danish Study

It may have some benefit if you are infected and shedding the virus, but a mask is not a prophylactic.
TechnoScout 12/11/2020 09:02PM
In the US, nearly half of the COVID deaths are in. or associated with nursing homes. Where are the nursing homes located in the Quetico?
mapsguy1955 12/01/2020 08:20PM
Canada simply cares more about their resident's health than the US. Just look at their health policies. I really think they will open to those who have proof of vaccination within a window of something like 180 days. I personally will get the vaccine when I am allowed to. My wife who IS a Canadian citizen but can't go home due to the 14 day quarantine works as a nurse in a nursing home in NH. She will be have to get the initial run and maybe I'll be able to as well. I hope so. If so, I'm hoping I'll be able to go in June.
desertcanoe 11/28/2020 08:08PM
timatkn:


I am just saying there is a A LOT of pressure on Trudeau.


T"



I don't think Trudeau is under any significant pressure to open the border. Instead, everything I hear is Trudeau is under serious pressure is to keep the border closed, especially to keep Americans out, to keep Canadians safe.


What I read in the Canadian news and hear from my Canadian friends (I used to live in Canada) is that Canadians are appalled and afraid of what's going on in the United States. They think we're crazy and not even trying to stay safe. They can't believe how high our coronavirus rates are. Just about nobody wants Americans to come.


One example: My parents own a cabin on an island in Lake Huron where they stay every summer - until this year :( My folks have lots of close Canadian friends there. Probably half the island's summer residents are American. All their friends say "we love you and we miss you and all our other American friends. But we don't want you to come." Yeah, it's a huge economic hit. But the island has a year round population of 2,000 and has had 0 coronavirus cases. And they want to keep it that way.


The Canadians I know are very explicit about "we are not willing to see Canadians die for the economy."


FWIW, my sense of Canada is that it really is a different place with different values. They aren't just cold Americans. They want their government to be active and help take the edges off of life, and especially to keep them safe. In the US we have "life, liberty and pursuit of happiness." In Canada the British North America Act, their "Constitution," has "Peace, Order and Good Government."


As one measure of how Canadians feel, take a look at how it was a national scandal in Canada when a few Americans abused the permission to cross Canada on their way to Alaska and stayed longer in Canada than absolutely necessary.

I think this quote from an American who studies Canada sums it up pretty well:
“Canada’s not going to open up the border until the virus is under control down here,” he said.


My two cents...the way things are going down here, there's no way the border is opening up until there's a vaccine, and you'll need to prove you've been vaccinated to cross.
Savage Voyageur 10/31/2020 06:37PM
bobbernumber3: "My prediction is no Quetico entry for Americans in 2021.
"



I have to agree with you. Just like I said in my COVID thread poll. Border opening on May 2022.
Canada has zero reason to open the border until the numbers go way down. They are doing just fine getting goods from ships overseas, Mexico and USA. It’s tourism that they ban because that’s what carries the virus. How will the numbers go down? A viable vaccine that most everyone takes. This will start to be available by early next year. Then widely available by the Fall. This is why I have always said May 2022. I hope is sooner but I’m not holding my breath for my fall Canada trip.
bobbernumber3 10/31/2020 06:18PM
TrailZen: "... Glad you see the comments as commiseration rather than whining.
TZ"



I think all of us Q paddlers are whining a little... but commiseration is a much better word. It's really too bad that we are in such a predicament. I don't see things changing much in the coming several months to change the situation.


I skipped Q for the first time in 20 years this spring (my group went without me to the BW)… that sounds a bit whiney.
mschi772 10/31/2020 05:44PM
As a resident of southeast Wisconsin, I will add that something like a mask mandate is only good in theory, and how people practice it makes all the difference in the world whether it works or fails. What I mean is this:

Around Racine, almost everyone is wearing masks. They report that they're wearing masks. The statistics show that almost everyone is wearing masks. Yet, it is spreading like crazy around here. Fools attribute this to masks not working. Mask work, but the problem is that a dramatic number of people are wearing their masks INCORRECTLY! I see so many people, including if not mostly customer-facing service workers like cashiers and drive-thru workers, "wearing" their mask under their chin, not covering their nose, or using vented masks. Vented masks!!! That's like using a condom with a hole in it! Yet they still get counted as adhering to the mandate. So frustrating. As I write this, our neighborhood has people going door-to-door trick-or-treating...ironically, some of them without any mask on at all!

People can't be trusted with something as simple as wearing a mask correctly, so I have no hope that no matter what conditions are placed on people, they'll manage to screw it up. If Canada is smart, they'll keep us out until the threat has passed to the point that they don't need to make entry conditional on anything short of official documentation of vaccination.
TrailZen 10/31/2020 11:37AM
bobbernumber3: "bobbernumber3: "My prediction is no Quetico entry for Americans in 2021.
"




I had hoped this was a YES/NO prediction thread... can't handle all the thought and commiseration.! UGH. "



Come on, Bobber! You know what a serious topic this is to many on the messageboard, and we've each got opinions and comments to make! Even a request for simple 'yes or no' responses to something like "Do you drink water while paddling?" would evoke comments from this group... Glad you see the comments as commiseration rather than whining.


TZ
carmike 10/31/2020 11:04AM
Depressing thread -- thanks, y'all. :)


I have spent a fair amount of time discussing ways to reopen the Q that would be "safe." Most of these conversations happened while paddling around the BWCA this year, looking unsuccessfully for open campsites. I then wrote all my ideas out longhand and sent and resent them to Canadian authorities, hoping they'll hire me as a "reopening consultant." So far, Justin Trudeau hasn't responded.


Just like in the BWCA, Quetico could close the Prairie Portage and Cache Bay ranger stations and allow Americans with RABC's to cross the border with no necessary human contact. It could charge higher fees to cover extra enforcement, or it could create permits that restrict camping locations (like EP 22/23 in the BWCA) to make enforcement easier and more efficient. It could increase the fines associated with breaking the rules to create significant disincentives. It could limit group size, or limit trips to only those with prior Quetico experience. After seeing the way Americans treated the BWCA this year, I'm not sure I'd let any of us in if I were the Canadians, though.


Yeah, I know. Not going to happen. I am also guessing we'll be stuck in the BWCA for another year.
bobbernumber3 10/31/2020 10:10AM
bobbernumber3: "My prediction is no Quetico entry for Americans in 2021.
"



I had hoped this was a YES/NO prediction thread... can't handle all the thought and commiseration.! UGH.
LarryS48 10/30/2020 10:29PM
GraniteCliffs: "That old decade starting with 7! There we are! We have been at this for, well, more decades than I can count on one hand. Usually 4 trips a year. I look to the horizon and see the sun slipping lower in the western sky. Thankfully, we are lucky to have some daylight left. And the time and ability to use it. Somedays it seems like a gift from God.
Paddle on!
"



Thanks for that. I hope we all get to paddle on sooner rather than later. Be safe.
GraniteCliffs 10/30/2020 09:28PM
That old decade starting with 7! There we are! We have been at this for, well, more decades than I can count on one hand. Usually 4 trips a year. I look to the horizon and see the sun slipping lower in the western sky. Thankfully, we are lucky to have some daylight left. And the time and ability to use it. Somedays it seems like a gift from God.
Paddle on!
LarryS48 10/30/2020 07:45PM
I too am in my 70s. I retired this year hoping to do more canoeing. So, I hope the border will open as soon as it is safe. Unfortunately, I think that the conditions won’t be right until the end of summer 2021 or later. I’d love for my prediction to be wrong, and we defeat the the virus sooner. However, what I have been saying is what I think will happen, not what I want to happen.
TrailZen 10/30/2020 07:11PM
GraniteCliffs: "The entire thread is depressing me. I remain hopeful that things will change by late spring. More outdoor activity and the advent of some vaccine effect should have an effect on the number of cases regardless of which country we are talking about. The virus will still be with us but should have been slowed enough to allow an opening. That is my sincere hope.

I turn another century older next spring and have a a number of Q trips planned, two of them will be arduous. One is a solo and another is my brother and me, along with a close friend we promised ourselves many, many years ago when we hit this age. "



We're with you, Granite. We had a late-August 2020 permit for a 10-day Quetico trip, and spent June & July hoping for easier travel and an open border, but finally pulled the plug and cancelled the trip. Like you, we'll be sporting ages that start with the number '7' next year, and are hoping to get several more Q trips in while we're still moving under our own power. Here's to an open border summer of '21; we'll get vaccines (if available) if that helps us cross at Prairie Portage!


TZ


PS: Hope you meant 'another decade' rather than 'another century'!
GraniteCliffs 10/30/2020 02:46PM
The entire thread is depressing me. I remain hopeful that things will change by late spring. More outdoor activity and the advent of some vaccine effect should have an effect on the number of cases regardless of which country we are talking about. The virus will still be with us but should have been slowed enough to allow an opening. That is my sincere hope.

I turn another century older next spring and have a a number of Q trips planned, two of them will be arduous. One is a solo and another is my brother and me, along with a close friend we promised ourselves many, many years ago when we hit this age.
LarryS48 10/30/2020 12:48PM
I agree that social distancing, masks etc. are unlikely to work because people won’t do it. That is sad because there is enough evidence to suggest that if everyone did it the virus could be controlled in a few months.

I think one of the vaccine based ends to this is still possible. If a safe and effective vaccine is found, it would require vaccinating roughly 300 million Americans and 30 million Canadians. It might also mean periodic booster shots. That is hard but doable.

If you find a cure, that means curing each person that gets it. We are pushing 90,000 people a day getting it now. Even if a cure is dirt cheap, 90,000 cures a day is a lot (32 million a year). Maybe curing only those who get seriously sick would cut down the numbers. Maybe some immunity would be developed, but there seems to be growing evidence that natural immunity doesn’t last long.

I really hope that the medical professionals come up with one or more vaccines and one or more cures soon. I think we will see how the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are doing within a couple of months, followed by results for the J & J and Astra Zeneca vaccines. There are hundreds more in the pipeline but further back.
tumblehome 10/30/2020 12:17PM
LarryS48,


I think #6 is the only hope.


Here is a a way at looking at it:


Let’s pretend that here in the US, our Covid cases are relatively under control. Let’s also say that in Canada, they have the most Covid cases of any country in the world and the virus is out of control, just running rampant. Would we want the infected Canadaian barreling across our border?


That is how they see us. The economic impact is significant on both sides but I still think Canadians would be insane to let us come back.


I’m not a Debbie Downer and I’m not freaking out but logistically, we are just screwed.
I’m the first to say I hope I’m wrong but there seems to be no hope with the way things are going.


In Northern MN where I live, we are very diligent about wearing masks but in some parts of the country it’s Helter Scelter and nobody is doing anything about it.


Tom



Argo 10/30/2020 08:28AM
LarryS48: "There are a number of ways that Americans might be allowed back into Canada.



1. The Canadian government/people might decide that their economic interests are more important than their health. So far this has not happened, and I hope it doesn't. I applaud the government and people of Canada for valuing lives above money.


"



With respect, framing the issue as a choice between money and health is, in my opinion, a false proposition. At issue is whether Covid-19 should disproportionately dominate the national agenda - to the exclusion of almost all other economic, social and public health considerations. It is a mistake to attribute greater virtue to one side of this issue.


It should also be noted that, apart from travel and tourism, the border is open. Commercial traffic between Canada and the USA remains unimpeded.










LarryS48 10/30/2020 01:00AM
There are a number of ways that Americans might be allowed back into Canada.


1. The Canadian government/people might decide that their economic interests are more important than their health. So far this has not happened, and I hope it doesn't. I applaud the government and people of Canada for valuing lives above money.


2. Both countries might control the virus through behavioral means. I don't think the US has much of a chance of doing that. Even if there is a change in political leadership, too many Americans refuse or are too weak to do what is needed. The Canadians have a better chance of doing what is necessary, but the fall surge in cases points out how hard it is.


3. A safe and effective sterilizing vaccine is found and widely used in both countries. A sterilizing vaccine not only prevents you from getting sick but also prevents the virus from replicating. If the virus can't replicate, there won't be enough to pass the virus on to another person. If such a vaccine is widely used, we would reach herd immunity and the spread of the virus would be minimal. If so, I think the border would open.


4. Even if a large number of people refuse to be vaccinated, I could see the border opening for those that were vaccinated with a sterilizing vaccine and can prove it.


5. A safe and effective nonsterilizing vaccine is found. In this case the vaccine would prevent you from getting sick but still allow the virus to replicate. There would still be asymtomatic spread of the virus but people wouldn't be getting sick. In this case, I would guess that the border would remain closed until there were very high numbers of people vaccinated in both countries. Estimates of how long it would take to get large numbers of Americans vaccinate are the second or third quarter of 2021. I am not aware of any estimates of how fast Canada will be able to vaccinate its population. (The news coverage of Canada is not so great down here. Maybe some Canadians have an estimate.)


6. One or more good therapeutics are developed. A lot of progress has been made in treating the disease, and the death rate is lower than it was in the spring. However, it is still too high for the border to open. If an effective and inexpensive drug that can cure the disease is found and widely available, the border might open.


I think if things go well on the vaccine or therapeutic end, you might see the border open by the end of summer or fall of 2021. If things don't go well ...
mutz 10/29/2020 11:28PM
I would guess that any travel restrictions will be mutual. I am a very strong supporter of reciprocity so, if the Canadians say no to U.S. travel to Canada , I would expect that we will say no to Canadian travel to the U.S.. Personally I have done over 50 canoe, flyin and boat in trips to Canada and will be doing more fishing trips throughout the U.S. regardless of travel restrictions.


timatkn 10/29/2020 08:59PM
I am not willing to guess or disagree, but you guys are depressing me.

The only thing I wonder is there are so many businesses dependent on tourism that economics may change things. I mean, can they really pay full pay another year to Q park employees to just sit at home? Can they tolerate all these outfitters and fishing resorts going out of business and not paying taxes? I mean, Toronto and Montreal aren’t going to bail them out.

Canada has consistently had an unemployment rate 3-4% higher than the US and we aren’t doing well... 27 of Canada’s top grossing companies have already signed petitions to open the border due to job and economic losses.

I am not trying to stir the pot. I am just saying there is a A LOT of pressure on Trudeau. His decision was easy early on... now his decision is possibly causing businesses to close, families to have hardships, job loss, and business that have been present for 25-100 years to close (RIGHT OR WRONG) it gets a lot harder for him to maintain.


T
bobbernumber3 10/29/2020 08:12PM
My prediction is no Quetico entry for Americans in 2021.
tumblehome 10/29/2020 08:04PM
Just like a dog that must have a vaccination certificate, my money is that you will need a vaccination certificate to enter Canada next year.

As it stands today, there’s no way Canada will let us in unless something real drastic happens in the next 6 months.

Tom