Will the exceptionally mild winter have an effect on the black fly hatch? I'm wondering if we can expect more black flies or if the appearance of black flies might be earlier than in most years.

I have this fantasy that the mild winter will cause an earlier hatch and that the black fly population will mostly die before I put in on May 18. Yes, it's a fantasy.

Mike

One year in the early-mid 80’s, I did an overnight at the end of April and the black flies were horrendous. No other observations than that. It must have been a very warm April.

Interesting question. I know the larvae filter feed in moving water and then hatch from pupae, there. Don't know what factors control timing, but maybe stream temperature and/or food availability as larvae?

The winter of 2015-2016 was an El Niño somewhat similar to what we are currently experiencing. I remember the mosquitoe/black fly season being earlier and longer but not much worse than others.

If we don't get rain or snow I would hazard a guess to say that black fly numbers will be reduced due to lack of moving water. On the other hand you may not notice the reduction due to the amount of smoke.

I don’t know this for certain… but it seems to me they hatch about a week after ice out and last for a week or two. So hopefully that means we have an Uber early ice out and they’re all dead by April!!

MikeinMpls: "Will the exceptionally mild winter have an effect on the black fly hatch? I'm wondering if we can expect more black flies or if the appearance of black flies might be earlier than in most years.

I have this fantasy that the mild winter will cause an earlier hatch and that the black fly population will mostly die before I put in on May 18. Yes, it's a fantasy.

Mike"

I think I’m OK with you being besieged by hordes of black flies in May, as long as they’re gone when I put in at Mudro end of June. Have a great time!