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      Significant severe threat tonight     
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WalleyePirate
member (5)member
 
07/17/2020 08:28AM  
Just as a heads up, the BWCA is under the gun for strong winds overnight. It's not often that a moderate risk is placed over any ate or for that matter

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1300.gif
 
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WhiteWolf
distinguished member(4347)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
07/17/2020 12:12PM  
Yep. Even expanded the area. "Hatched " area under wind threat is rarely seen this far north. Day 1 severe threat

At this time it appears to late night / early morning threat and perhaps a derecho. event.
 
WhiteWolf
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07/17/2020 12:40PM  
 
jamdemos
senior member (68)senior membersenior member
 
07/17/2020 02:17PM  
Aghhh.... we’ll be leaving for Itasca State Park here in about an hour, staying at one of the backpack sites over the weekend. Do you think this is a bad idea, really would hate to cancel an hour before heading out.
 
WhiteWolf
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07/17/2020 02:26PM  
No. Was just thinking about your question. I personally don't allow "potential" weather to make or break a trip. Just be prepared... I will be able to provide updates throughout the evening and into the early AM. I will add that current radar and intensity of storms in ND is lining up well for the above event to materialize.
 
Boppasteveg
senior member (90)senior membersenior member
 
07/17/2020 02:30PM  
This is not looking good. All indications are that this thing could very well be as bad as the 7/4/99 derecho. Please stay safe!!
 
jamdemos
senior member (68)senior membersenior member
 
07/17/2020 02:32PM  
WhiteWolf: "No. Was just thinking about your question. I personally don't allow "potential" weather to make or break a trip. Just be prepared... I will be able to provide updates throughout the evening and into the early AM."

Thank you WhiteWolf for the encouraging comment, I’m always as best prepared as possible for changing weather, and will make sure to be extra vigilant this time, and have been stuck in some nasty stuff, we’ll keep our eye on the weather throughout the night and your updates are appreciated. We’ll just be a 2 mile hike in so not in the middle of nowhere.
For some reason this storm just alerted me more, maybe cause it seems to be headlines everywhere, and 75+ MPH winds under a large tree canopy doesn’t sound comforting.
 
07/17/2020 03:59PM  
Thanks for the heads up. Been sending/receiving messages from Kips Inreach. He is on Ester tonight. I let him know to be on the watch. He replied and is tightening up camp
 
WhiteWolf
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07/17/2020 04:36PM  
Things appearing to be gelling together faster than what was expected. The storms in NW MN were not supposed to be there until much later this evening. This is good and bad. Bad for those in NW- N-Central MN has it appears this line is "bowing out" and is taking on characteristics all ready of a severe wind event - see below. The good is that it's not at night so people will be able to see and it should suck energy out of the atmosphere for another forecasted line to develop S and W of the current- likely mitigating it. IF one see's the "outflow boundary" in this latest image= (squiggly - narrow line on the radar stretching from just N of Grand Forks back to near Carrington,ND) that is a sign of weakening - the storms are gusting themselves out at this time in areas just near the outflow boundary. Where there is no outflow boundary means the storms are still mature and can grow even stronger.




Hopefully this weakening will continue but what will likely happen is that returns in far NW MN will slowly "turn" to the right or South- that is something that needs to be watched and is indicative of classic straight line wind events.

Hopefully no more 101 mph wing gusts are reported.

 
WhiteWolf
distinguished member(4347)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
07/17/2020 05:13PM  
new watch coming and they even mention my forecasted S to SE trend--

Even mention into the Brainerd area by 7pm
 
07/17/2020 05:23PM  
WhiteWolf: "new watch coming and they even mention my forecasted S to SE trend--


Even mention into the Brainerd area by 7pm "

Thanks Whitewolf-over the years you get those days you know something bad may happen. It is very hot, and extremely humid with so much moisture hanging in the air. Who knows, I sure don't, but this may be one of those nights.
 
WhiteWolf
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07/17/2020 05:40PM  
Not good. First time I've seen this this year. PDS- or Particularly Dangerous Situation.

PDS Severe Thunderstorm Watch
 
RedLakePaddler
senior member (83)senior membersenior member
 
07/17/2020 05:48PM  
I am in Thief River Falls. We have high gusty winds and heavy rain at this time. Looks like it might be a long night. Rusty is in the house with my Daughter with his teeth chattering! Right now it looks like the weather is north of Itasca park.

Carl
 
pswith5
distinguished member(3420)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
07/17/2020 05:49PM  
This is why I don't go in July!!
 
07/17/2020 06:19PM  
WhiteWolf: "...Hopefully no more 101 mph wing gusts are reported. ..."
That sort of blows my mind.

I'm suppose to be entering tomorrow at Hog Creek. We'll see how that goes.
 
schweady
distinguished member(7263)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
07/17/2020 06:43PM  
Feels like you're wearing a hot, heavy blanket outside right now in Perham. Everything has gone still. Not a good omen.
 
07/17/2020 07:44PM  
schweady: "Feels like you're wearing a hot, heavy blanket outside right now in Perham. Everything has gone still. Not a good omen.
"

Agree, that is what I remember about the worst 4 storms in my life. Gets hot and dead calm during the day, humid as heck and you can just see things building. Forecast for me is changing every 5 minutes, now one has over 3 inches rain predicted. WE can use the rain, but not the other stuff.
 
07/17/2020 07:48PM  
Jaywalker: "WhiteWolf: "...Hopefully no more 101 mph wing gusts are reported. ..."
That sort of blows my mind.


I'm suppose to be entering tomorrow at Hog Creek. We'll see how that goes."

couple years ago my niece got hit with 120 mile hour winds. Went out there right after and so many trees down I couldn't even find the driveway at first. Luck no body got hurt. One big white pine landed on the house and like a 100 trees down in the yard area. Almost all big white and red pine, many just up rooted.
 
07/17/2020 07:56PM  
I think I'm in the heart of it right now, im at my cabin by Itasca SP.
The first wave came with really strong gusts 40+ mph at least.
It hit here pretty good, but not bad IMHO. Sure wouldn't want to be in a tent now.

Pic was taken at 7:45 pm. Extreme southern Clearwater County.
First pic is the first wave of strong winds, with no rain.
2nd is during the storm.

 
07/17/2020 08:07PM  
 
07/17/2020 09:32PM  
Lakes area residents should begin preparing now for what's expected to be a wild and severe night of summer storm weather.

By Saturday morning, July 18, the full breadth and power of a severe summer storm should be visible — and whatever that storm leaves is expected to be followed by a second storm wave.

“This is probably going to be the worst storm the Northland sees this summer,” said Joe Moore, warning coordination meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Duluth. Moore spoke Friday afternoon during an online media briefing on the approaching storm.
 
07/17/2020 10:19PM  
Yeah, looks like the worst of the bow is heading just south of the arrowhead for now.

https://weather.com/storms/severe/news/2020-07-17-severe-thunderstorms-derecho-dakotas-minnesota-forecast?cm_ven=hp-slot-1
 
WhiteWolf
distinguished member(4347)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
07/17/2020 10:37PM  
Watch issued for Twin Cities on up to Superior into N.MI. BWCAW "may" dodge a bullet as they are not in watch but still a lot of moving parts with this very fluid situation.

New watch until 6am for Twin Cities etc.
 
WhiteWolf
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07/17/2020 11:54PM  
 
MHS67
distinguished member(1431)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
07/18/2020 12:32AM  
Hey, you guys be careful back there!!
 
WhiteWolf
distinguished member(4347)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
07/18/2020 01:37AM  
 
WhiteWolf
distinguished member(4347)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
07/18/2020 01:55AM  
I think now for most of the BWCAW the main threat is going to be heavy rain and minor flooding issues etc.
 
acanoer
member (42)member
 
07/18/2020 06:23AM  
Well they do need the water.

 
WhiteWolf
distinguished member(4347)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
07/18/2020 04:05PM  
Just put a watch out for tonight for much of E and NE MN including the BWCA. Things don't look as explosive as they were yday; but still a watch is a watch and does include the BWCA.

Until 11:00 Pm 7/18
 
MHS67
distinguished member(1431)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
07/18/2020 10:26PM  
Anybody know how much rain north east Minn. got?
 
07/18/2020 11:15PM  
Duluth got just under and inch today it says according to NOAA. Looks like less the farther N and E you get into the arrowhead. (looking at rainfall estimate map)
 
07/18/2020 11:21PM  
MHS67: "Anybody know how much rain north east Minn. got?" one of the best precip indicators
 
JimmyJustice
distinguished member(655)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
07/19/2020 07:47AM  
Had a strong band come through Hayward area last night around 10:00. Thankfully it dissipated a little bit right before it hit. Here on Lac Courte Oreiles, the dock seems to be the only thing damaged...that and the grill.

 
SaganagaJoe
distinguished member(2143)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
07/19/2020 08:12AM  
We lost a top out of a weak tree at the cabin in Webster WI area.
 
07/19/2020 10:09AM  
JimmyJustice: "Had a strong band come through Hayward area last night around 10:00. Thankfully it dissipated a little bit right before it hit. Here on Lac Courte Oreiles, the dock seems to be the only thing damaged...that and the grill.


"


I used to take weekend trips there with my Dad and his buddies in the late 60's to mid 70's. We stayed at a resort called Fredrick's I believe. It was in a bay till a fire burned down the main building. This view looks to be the same as there. Big water and big muskies.
 
JimmyJustice
distinguished member(655)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
07/19/2020 01:38PM  
Tom T.

Feel free to PM me regarding the muskies. I always assumed Muskie Bay was named in a manner similar to Greenland.

WW,

Any idea how strong the winds were here last night? Dock guy Markus and his crew were here already and up-righted the the dock. A couple of structural matters to attend to int eh fall but usable for now. He said his side of the the lake is still without power and he had repaired 5 lifts today with more to go. Several torn canopies, down trees etc.

JJ

 
WhiteWolf
distinguished member(4347)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
07/20/2020 05:01AM  
From storm reports in the area and gut call is 45-65mph. If your on the downwind / angle side of the winds ( generally E side of lake) I'd say lower end of that range. It takes less wind than one would think when it has little friction over a total flat surface of a large body of water and fetch to leverage a dock up like pictured. Even "wind" has momentum. A 50 mph wind over long sections of water/land etc/ (fetch) compared to 50 mph winds on lee of an island- is not the same deal in force lasting pounds. Don't wanna get too technical- and some may argue but this is a proven meteorological (really simple physics) fact.
All it takes is one section of dock , ( like tipping a canoe) and it's all over. It does look more than "flipped", my experience from field work says around 55-60 mph. 80mph would easily have removed the pontoon canopy and likely the rest of the dock and thrown them. Wind - force- too damage is not linear, it's exponential. A 60mph wind has WAY more force (damage) than double a 30mph, too lazy to break out the calculation, but I know a 100 mph wind doubles in force at 126 mph
Impressive winds nonetheless. Second look at pic is that winds may have been funnled along the shoreline , that pontoon canopy has too much surface area to not show otherwise.

Wind Power Riddle
 
07/20/2020 08:11AM  
Pontoons and with canopies are getting flipped quite often.
 
4keys
distinguished member(790)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
07/23/2020 06:49AM  
Got back from Ogish last night. We put all the tent tie downs to use and put all gear away in prep for this storm. The west side of the tent definitely got pushed around, but held up. Rain did get bounced under the rainfly on the south end of the tent, enough that the dog moved. We FELT the continuous rolls of thunder. Luckily no trees down by us and the canoe was ok.
 
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