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      My predictions for Quetico 2021     

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tumblehome
distinguished member(1744)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
10/29/2020 08:04PM
Just like a dog that must have a vaccination certificate, my money is that you will need a vaccination certificate to enter Canada next year.

As it stands today, there’s no way Canada will let us in unless something real drastic happens in the next 6 months.

Tom
 
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bobbernumber3
distinguished member(1551)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
10/29/2020 08:12PM
My prediction is no Quetico entry for Americans in 2021.
10/29/2020 08:59PM
I am not willing to guess or disagree, but you guys are depressing me.

The only thing I wonder is there are so many businesses dependent on tourism that economics may change things. I mean, can they really pay full pay another year to Q park employees to just sit at home? Can they tolerate all these outfitters and fishing resorts going out of business and not paying taxes? I mean, Toronto and Montreal aren’t going to bail them out.

Canada has consistently had an unemployment rate 3-4% higher than the US and we aren’t doing well... 27 of Canada’s top grossing companies have already signed petitions to open the border due to job and economic losses.

I am not trying to stir the pot. I am just saying there is a A LOT of pressure on Trudeau. His decision was easy early on... now his decision is possibly causing businesses to close, families to have hardships, job loss, and business that have been present for 25-100 years to close (RIGHT OR WRONG) it gets a lot harder for him to maintain.

T
mutz
distinguished member(1244)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
10/29/2020 11:28PM
I would guess that any travel restrictions will be mutual. I am a very strong supporter of reciprocity so, if the Canadians say no to U.S. travel to Canada , I would expect that we will say no to Canadian travel to the U.S.. Personally I have done over 50 canoe, flyin and boat in trips to Canada and will be doing more fishing trips throughout the U.S. regardless of travel restrictions.

LarryS48
senior member (91)senior membersenior member
 
10/30/2020 01:00AM
There are a number of ways that Americans might be allowed back into Canada.

1. The Canadian government/people might decide that their economic interests are more important than their health. So far this has not happened, and I hope it doesn't. I applaud the government and people of Canada for valuing lives above money.

2. Both countries might control the virus through behavioral means. I don't think the US has much of a chance of doing that. Even if there is a change in political leadership, too many Americans refuse or are too weak to do what is needed. The Canadians have a better chance of doing what is necessary, but the fall surge in cases points out how hard it is.

3. A safe and effective sterilizing vaccine is found and widely used in both countries. A sterilizing vaccine not only prevents you from getting sick but also prevents the virus from replicating. If the virus can't replicate, there won't be enough to pass the virus on to another person. If such a vaccine is widely used, we would reach herd immunity and the spread of the virus would be minimal. If so, I think the border would open.

4. Even if a large number of people refuse to be vaccinated, I could see the border opening for those that were vaccinated with a sterilizing vaccine and can prove it.

5. A safe and effective nonsterilizing vaccine is found. In this case the vaccine would prevent you from getting sick but still allow the virus to replicate. There would still be asymtomatic spread of the virus but people wouldn't be getting sick. In this case, I would guess that the border would remain closed until there were very high numbers of people vaccinated in both countries. Estimates of how long it would take to get large numbers of Americans vaccinate are the second or third quarter of 2021. I am not aware of any estimates of how fast Canada will be able to vaccinate its population. (The news coverage of Canada is not so great down here. Maybe some Canadians have an estimate.)

6. One or more good therapeutics are developed. A lot of progress has been made in treating the disease, and the death rate is lower than it was in the spring. However, it is still too high for the border to open. If an effective and inexpensive drug that can cure the disease is found and widely available, the border might open.

I think if things go well on the vaccine or therapeutic end, you might see the border open by the end of summer or fall of 2021. If things don't go well ...
Argo
distinguished member (110)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
10/30/2020 08:28AM
LarryS48: "There are a number of ways that Americans might be allowed back into Canada.


1. The Canadian government/people might decide that their economic interests are more important than their health. So far this has not happened, and I hope it doesn't. I applaud the government and people of Canada for valuing lives above money.

"


With respect, framing the issue as a choice between money and health is, in my opinion, a false proposition. At issue is whether Covid-19 should disproportionately dominate the national agenda - to the exclusion of almost all other economic, social and public health considerations. It is a mistake to attribute greater virtue to one side of this issue.

It should also be noted that, apart from travel and tourism, the border is open. Commercial traffic between Canada and the USA remains unimpeded.







tumblehome
distinguished member(1744)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
10/30/2020 12:17PM
LarryS48,

I think #6 is the only hope.

Here is a a way at looking at it:

Let’s pretend that here in the US, our Covid cases are relatively under control. Let’s also say that in Canada, they have the most Covid cases of any country in the world and the virus is out of control, just running rampant. Would we want the infected Canadaian barreling across our border?

That is how they see us. The economic impact is significant on both sides but I still think Canadians would be insane to let us come back.

I’m not a Debbie Downer and I’m not freaking out but logistically, we are just screwed.
I’m the first to say I hope I’m wrong but there seems to be no hope with the way things are going.

In Northern MN where I live, we are very diligent about wearing masks but in some parts of the country it’s Helter Scelter and nobody is doing anything about it.

Tom


LarryS48
senior member (91)senior membersenior member
 
10/30/2020 12:48PM
I agree that social distancing, masks etc. are unlikely to work because people won’t do it. That is sad because there is enough evidence to suggest that if everyone did it the virus could be controlled in a few months.

I think one of the vaccine based ends to this is still possible. If a safe and effective vaccine is found, it would require vaccinating roughly 300 million Americans and 30 million Canadians. It might also mean periodic booster shots. That is hard but doable.

If you find a cure, that means curing each person that gets it. We are pushing 90,000 people a day getting it now. Even if a cure is dirt cheap, 90,000 cures a day is a lot (32 million a year). Maybe curing only those who get seriously sick would cut down the numbers. Maybe some immunity would be developed, but there seems to be growing evidence that natural immunity doesn’t last long.

I really hope that the medical professionals come up with one or more vaccines and one or more cures soon. I think we will see how the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are doing within a couple of months, followed by results for the J & J and Astra Zeneca vaccines. There are hundreds more in the pipeline but further back.
GraniteCliffs
distinguished member(1868)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
10/30/2020 02:46PM
The entire thread is depressing me. I remain hopeful that things will change by late spring. More outdoor activity and the advent of some vaccine effect should have an effect on the number of cases regardless of which country we are talking about. The virus will still be with us but should have been slowed enough to allow an opening. That is my sincere hope.

I turn another century older next spring and have a a number of Q trips planned, two of them will be arduous. One is a solo and another is my brother and me, along with a close friend we promised ourselves many, many years ago when we hit this age.
10/30/2020 07:11PM
GraniteCliffs: "The entire thread is depressing me. I remain hopeful that things will change by late spring. More outdoor activity and the advent of some vaccine effect should have an effect on the number of cases regardless of which country we are talking about. The virus will still be with us but should have been slowed enough to allow an opening. That is my sincere hope.

I turn another century older next spring and have a a number of Q trips planned, two of them will be arduous. One is a solo and another is my brother and me, along with a close friend we promised ourselves many, many years ago when we hit this age. "


We're with you, Granite. We had a late-August 2020 permit for a 10-day Quetico trip, and spent June & July hoping for easier travel and an open border, but finally pulled the plug and cancelled the trip. Like you, we'll be sporting ages that start with the number '7' next year, and are hoping to get several more Q trips in while we're still moving under our own power. Here's to an open border summer of '21; we'll get vaccines (if available) if that helps us cross at Prairie Portage!

TZ

PS: Hope you meant 'another decade' rather than 'another century'!
LarryS48
senior member (91)senior membersenior member
 
10/30/2020 07:45PM
I too am in my 70s. I retired this year hoping to do more canoeing. So, I hope the border will open as soon as it is safe. Unfortunately, I think that the conditions won’t be right until the end of summer 2021 or later. I’d love for my prediction to be wrong, and we defeat the the virus sooner. However, what I have been saying is what I think will happen, not what I want to happen.
GraniteCliffs
distinguished member(1868)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
10/30/2020 09:28PM
That old decade starting with 7! There we are! We have been at this for, well, more decades than I can count on one hand. Usually 4 trips a year. I look to the horizon and see the sun slipping lower in the western sky. Thankfully, we are lucky to have some daylight left. And the time and ability to use it. Somedays it seems like a gift from God.
Paddle on!
LarryS48
senior member (91)senior membersenior member
 
10/30/2020 10:29PM
GraniteCliffs: "That old decade starting with 7! There we are! We have been at this for, well, more decades than I can count on one hand. Usually 4 trips a year. I look to the horizon and see the sun slipping lower in the western sky. Thankfully, we are lucky to have some daylight left. And the time and ability to use it. Somedays it seems like a gift from God.
Paddle on!
"


Thanks for that. I hope we all get to paddle on sooner rather than later. Be safe.
bobbernumber3
distinguished member(1551)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
10/31/2020 10:10AM
bobbernumber3: "My prediction is no Quetico entry for Americans in 2021.
"


I had hoped this was a YES/NO prediction thread... can't handle all the thought and commiseration.! UGH.
10/31/2020 11:04AM
Depressing thread -- thanks, y'all. :)

I have spent a fair amount of time discussing ways to reopen the Q that would be "safe." Most of these conversations happened while paddling around the BWCA this year, looking unsuccessfully for open campsites. I then wrote all my ideas out longhand and sent and resent them to Canadian authorities, hoping they'll hire me as a "reopening consultant." So far, Justin Trudeau hasn't responded.

Just like in the BWCA, Quetico could close the Prairie Portage and Cache Bay ranger stations and allow Americans with RABC's to cross the border with no necessary human contact. It could charge higher fees to cover extra enforcement, or it could create permits that restrict camping locations (like EP 22/23 in the BWCA) to make enforcement easier and more efficient. It could increase the fines associated with breaking the rules to create significant disincentives. It could limit group size, or limit trips to only those with prior Quetico experience. After seeing the way Americans treated the BWCA this year, I'm not sure I'd let any of us in if I were the Canadians, though.

Yeah, I know. Not going to happen. I am also guessing we'll be stuck in the BWCA for another year.
10/31/2020 11:37AM
bobbernumber3: "bobbernumber3: "My prediction is no Quetico entry for Americans in 2021.
"



I had hoped this was a YES/NO prediction thread... can't handle all the thought and commiseration.! UGH. "


Come on, Bobber! You know what a serious topic this is to many on the messageboard, and we've each got opinions and comments to make! Even a request for simple 'yes or no' responses to something like "Do you drink water while paddling?" would evoke comments from this group... Glad you see the comments as commiseration rather than whining.

TZ
mschi772
distinguished member (474)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
10/31/2020 05:44PM
As a resident of southeast Wisconsin, I will add that something like a mask mandate is only good in theory, and how people practice it makes all the difference in the world whether it works or fails. What I mean is this:

Around Racine, almost everyone is wearing masks. They report that they're wearing masks. The statistics show that almost everyone is wearing masks. Yet, it is spreading like crazy around here. Fools attribute this to masks not working. Mask work, but the problem is that a dramatic number of people are wearing their masks INCORRECTLY! I see so many people, including if not mostly customer-facing service workers like cashiers and drive-thru workers, "wearing" their mask under their chin, not covering their nose, or using vented masks. Vented masks!!! That's like using a condom with a hole in it! Yet they still get counted as adhering to the mandate. So frustrating. As I write this, our neighborhood has people going door-to-door trick-or-treating...ironically, some of them without any mask on at all!

People can't be trusted with something as simple as wearing a mask correctly, so I have no hope that no matter what conditions are placed on people, they'll manage to screw it up. If Canada is smart, they'll keep us out until the threat has passed to the point that they don't need to make entry conditional on anything short of official documentation of vaccination.
bobbernumber3
distinguished member(1551)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
10/31/2020 06:18PM
TrailZen: "... Glad you see the comments as commiseration rather than whining.
TZ"


I think all of us Q paddlers are whining a little... but commiseration is a much better word. It's really too bad that we are in such a predicament. I don't see things changing much in the coming several months to change the situation.

I skipped Q for the first time in 20 years this spring (my group went without me to the BW)… that sounds a bit whiney.
Savage Voyageur
distinguished member(13400)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished membermaster membermaster member
 
10/31/2020 06:37PM
bobbernumber3: "My prediction is no Quetico entry for Americans in 2021.
"


I have to agree with you. Just like I said in my COVID thread poll. Border opening on May 2022.
Canada has zero reason to open the border until the numbers go way down. They are doing just fine getting goods from ships overseas, Mexico and USA. It’s tourism that they ban because that’s what carries the virus. How will the numbers go down? A viable vaccine that most everyone takes. This will start to be available by early next year. Then widely available by the Fall. This is why I have always said May 2022. I hope is sooner but I’m not holding my breath for my fall Canada trip.
 
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