So many discussions here seem to revolve at least partially around the pandemic surge. I lean towards a return to 20teens level of usage in a few years - maybe 2024 or 2025. I think most people who first ventured into the wilderness and camping and such will tire of it and return to their usual pre-pandemic leisure activity. The exception may be some youth who are captivated by the experience. But just as some are rethinking careers, maybe there is a more fundamental societal change.

Place your bets.

I would agree.

I also think much lightly used gear and boats may become available in the next few years. All those nice boats sold over the past year may become garage queens and end up for sale.

deerfoot: "I would agree.


I also think much lightly used gear and boats may become available in the next few years. All those nice boats sold over the past year may become garage queens and end up for sale."

I got some slightly used TP if anyone wants it. Haha.

As more folks get vaccinated and more vacation spots/ venues open up to nearer pre-covid norms, I'd bet on 2022 or 2023.

I sort of have mixed feelings on this. I want the hoards to go away but I also want the enjoyment of the BWCA and Quetico to continue.

There have been discussions on this board regarding the decreased usage of the area and I have wondered where the next generation of folks will come from. The average age of people going into the backcountry has been going up (I am now passing into my 60's and have no idea how that happened) and the number of permits had been steadily declining prior to covid.

If the area is to continue being preserved, there must be a demand for it. Maybe enough of the people who have been exposed to it during the past years will find it as addictive as we do. I just hope not too many.

I think you are probably right and things will calm down (I hope), but I also hope there are some new fans that discovered the joys of canoe country and will continue to vacation there. I could be wrong, but I also think that most of the people that have caused problems in the BW aren't ones to continue for long. Guess we'll see.

I don't see it subsiding to pre pandemic. Likely fall from the high, but I think the year of 2020 for the outdoor industry will be talked about in 25 years from now. Just like when soldiers returns from WW2 and an economic boom occurred, camping jumped. While a vastly different scenario, I think the underlying cause and effect will be similar. You had a year of forced social distancing which led many to be introduced to the BW. You have what some will argue being a K shaped recovery, where the rich got richer and the poor got poorer. Everyone who received $3,200 in stimulus money that didn't lose their job dumped it into "luxury" items- ie- outdoor equipment (our family had no change in employment, and I did my best to dump that money back into circulation- I upgraded to a Lean+3) bikes are still scarce, canoes are scarce. There will be a certain amount of people that will move back to Cancun and wine country and Disney world, but you will also have a ton of people that invested into camping, saw the beauty of canoe country, and are hooked. And you have all these new people that are now going to invite those that missed out. Not all of them , but I bet a lot. Of course you will have the used gear getting flooded into the market, but I doubt from those that are getting out, there will be a few, but I bet most will be from those upgrading, meaning a more dedicated canoe tripper. I think elevated usage will be here to stay, where the peak and the trough will be no one knows.

Edit: I would also say that the influx of canoers during 2020 and likely 2021, isn't necessarily those that have never tripped, but maybe those that tripped as youngsters through an organization and never gave it much thought until travel restrictions forced into thinking locally. Of course, this is just my opinion, not based on anything.

I agree with GrandRapids. I also think people are going on more trips than before, but I have no way of knowing this. I have personally been going more trips/year than when I first started.

Another thing that has helped the outdoor industry boom, in my opinion, is the advancement in outdoor gear in the last 10 years. Innovative clothes and gear specifically tailored to your activity. There are lightweight options for nearly everything. It's easy to buy all the gear you need and not have to rely on an outfitter or have to borrow gear.

Lastly, I think hiking/backpacking/canoe tripping has increased due to social media. People see pictures all these beautiful places and want that lifestyle as well.

I think pandemic conditions accelerated what was already undergoing a big surge in momentum. I don't think it will "return" because it was already on a steep trajectory with multifactorial influences: accessible gear, wealthy getting wealthier, boomers wanting an active retirement for many years, more women, more PoC, and more solos entering activities previously male / white male prevalent.
I was trout fishing today on a perimeter lake of the BWCA, and saw three other people - one Hmong (I know because we struck up a conversation), a solo canoe just paddling around, and a person "power-walking the trail" at age 78, training for an upcoming event (also struck up a conversation when she asked for some spare toilet paper). All of were women, and all were there alone. I didn't see that kind of activity / interest a few years ago.

I think it will calm down in a couple years. Lots of people were stuck inside and looking at options to get out and this is a big bucket list I think for many. They'll do a few trips and most will stop. The ones that continue will continue the tradition as everyone here has. I also equate it to dogs during covid. I lost mine shortly before covid hit and tried getting a dog during covid was near impossible due to everyone looking for companionship.

For myself and others I hope it calms down a bit. I haven't been able to make a trip in 6 years and it has been eating at me every year. However, 2022 is the year I get to make the trip and from then on it will be an annual trip. I am not returning as a result of Covid, or a need to get away or a change in activity. We have a family cabin in a very rural county of Ohio where we get away or socially separate. My return in 2022 is simply because I became obsessed, blessed and infected with the magical place we all love when I was 14.
No matter what 2022 brings, as long as I have an entry permit in my hand and my paddle in the water I will be a happy man. Best to all