BWCA Winter Outlook 2021-2022 Boundary Waters Group Forum: WEATHER STUFF
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10/13/2021 11:06AM  
The following are two outlooks that I pretty much agree with. Ideas are for the Upper Midwest- especially the Arrowhead region. One idea that needs mentioning is a cold (below Norm) DEC is mentioned in both links. While I agree with the why's of this happening, ( especially the MJO relation and a cold May E of the Rockies) link-- history has proven otherwise as it's been a long time since winter in earnest (last OCT 20' doesn't count- that's Fall) has started "early". It just seems winter has been slow to start for the last 10-15 years and than linger longer than normal into March- even April on avg. Might this winter be different? I personally still see a delay in the onset of "true" cold- until JAN, with everything laid out in these links basically pushed back 2-4 weeks. I will also personally say that I'am coming around to the idea of the LRC. (Lezaks' Recurring Cycle). It's a strong idea held by not many in the long range forecasting community that says once Fall hits ( winter jet stream patterns show their cards- much different than APril-Aug's ) -- this can hint to "cycles in the major storm/pattern/temp changes " that avg around 40-50 days. Google "Gary Lezak LRC" ---- in other words - what is now occurring in the High PLains (Blizzard in WY) and copious rains/snows in areas E may repeat itself in 40-50 days and than again 40-50 days after. Something to think about or write down on your calendar.

Anyways here are two very good outlooks. One is VERY IN-Depth. But this is a weather forum after all. Lots of good stuff for the weather weenies.


Terry Swails winter outlook


Weatherbell 2021-22 winter outlook

Both are very good outfits. The piece by Terry Swails is uncanny for a TV guy. Can you imagine Belinda Jensen of KARE-11 doing the same thing? Not judging- just stating an opinion. Anyways- enjoy the weather, it's the only weather you got!@
 
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10/22/2021 11:17PM  
Highly likely we have back to back La Nina winters. I know last winter was pretty bleak snow wise in the Dakotas and N.MN which basically led to a bad start for the drought.... How does this winter look with back to back La Nina for precip--????

A picture is worth a thousand words.

 
10/26/2021 10:40PM  
That's a good sign for me here in NW Indiana.

Thanks for posting.
 
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