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05/09/2022 11:21AM  
OH! how fast mother nature can change. Read the reports back several years for the Rainy River district. ( basic influence for W. BWCA water levels)
What a difference one year can make.


Rainy River District water control
 
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GopherAdventure
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05/09/2022 08:12PM  
It’s absolutely nuts. Do you think these water levels in the BWCA are going to surpass what we saw in the spring/summer of 2012? That year was nuts.

Tony
 
cyclones30
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05/09/2022 08:16PM  
This is all from snow/ice melt though. It's not a sustained high water situation (yet) like rainfall just training over the area for weeks on end. There also isn't really much "soil" to speak of so things can't really soak in and take their time draining to waterways. It's sand/rock for the most part and water moves quickly.

Yes lower reaches like Rainy and stuff it takes longer to get to and will take longer to go down, but I'd think with normal weather going forward all but the largest of streams will be normal-ish in a month
 
deerfoot
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05/09/2022 08:19PM  
Very interesting - thanks for sharing.
 
PeaceFrog
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05/09/2022 10:50PM  
GopherAdventure: "It’s absolutely nuts. Do you think these water levels in the BWCA are going to surpass what we saw in the spring/summer of 2012? That year was nuts.


Tony"

Hey Tony please excuse my ignorance about 2012. Nuts in what way? Good I am hoping.
 
05/10/2022 07:07AM  
GopherAdventure: "It’s absolutely nuts. Do you think these water levels in the BWCA are going to surpass what we saw in the spring/summer of 2012? That year was nuts.


Tony"


It's possible. As Cyclones30 says though, it's all depends on precip trends - but certainly- we are at much better starting of point that last year. I don't recall 2012 other than it was an extremely early ice out with a record warm Spring for most reading and drought down here in IA with July 2012 the warmest since 1936. Spring of 1999 was extremely high water early in the season. On fishing opener that year I was looking for a campsite(s) on Agnes and knew I was right on them - only to look over the canoe and see fire pits covered by 2-3' of water.

Perhaps you are confusing 2012 with 2014? 2014 seems to take the cake for high water in the Rainy River district recently. And then 1950.

000
FGUS73 KDLH 091916
ESFDLH
MNC061-071-075-137-111930-

Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Duluth MN
216 PM CDT Mon May 9 2022

...EXPECT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HIGH WATER AND FLOODING WITHIN
THE RAINY LAKE BASIN...

Spring snowmelt, record April precipitation and frequent May rain
events have created strong hydrologic responses within the Rainy
Lake basin.
Many tributaries to Rainy Lake continue showing strong inflows with
continued upward trends. Rainy River tributaries have receded since
their crests in late April.

Strong lake rises within the Rainy Lake Basin are ongoing and are
expected to continue for at least the next week to ten days.
Snowpack still exists in the basin`s upland areas, and with warmer
temperatures and potential for heavy rainfall in the forecast,
expect increasing water levels.

At 08:00 AM, Monday, May 9th the Namakan Lake level was 1118.6
feet. In 2014 the highest lake level was 1120 feet. A record level
was set on Lake Namakan in 1950 when it reached 1122.70 feet.

Maximum releases from dams on Namakan Lake and Rainy Lake continue
in an effort to slow surging lake rises. This will cause an
increase in the flow on the Rainy River. Expect high water levels
within the Rainy Lake system for the next several weeks.

and they are starting sandbagging in the area-


Lots of info here
and here.
 
05/10/2022 07:22AM  
Kawish River / Basswood Lake Level

The hatched red line is 90% threshold. Only goes above or below 10% of the time.
All this data can be found in one of the previous links.

As I'am sure with all the falls up there right now- but in particular to the Basswood Lake outflow- Lower Basswood Falls is rip city right now.
 
05/10/2022 07:43AM  
And it looks quite wet over the next 3-7 days (most of this is in the next 2-4 days for the region addressed above)

 
05/10/2022 08:02AM  
I much prefer the wetter weather than the dryness and drought we've experienced over the past 2 years!
 
GopherAdventure
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05/10/2022 09:36AM  
PeaceFrog: "GopherAdventure: "It’s absolutely nuts. Do you think these water levels in the BWCA are going to surpass what we saw in the spring/summer of 2012? That year was nuts.



Tony"

Hey Tony please excuse my ignorance about 2012. Nuts in what way? Good I am hoping."


Sorry, WW fixed it for me. It was 2014. Just insanely high water levels sustained at least into July. We had lots of precipitation that spring/summer if memory serves me right. Water levels were over previous high water marks significantly. There were a couple of campsites where the fire grates were almost under water. We got to skip a couple of portages because of it though.

Tony
 
missmolly
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05/10/2022 10:06AM  
HighnDry: "I much prefer the wetter weather than the dryness and drought we've experienced over the past 2 years!"

I hear ya. When the land withers, I do too.

So, I like this scene when the restored King Arthur rides out and the land blossoms.
 
hobbydog
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05/11/2022 08:36PM  
So what’s the longer term forecast for June? 3rd year on La Niña. Since January there has been significant precipitation in norther MN every 5 to 7 days. Will the pattern change for the summer months?
 
05/11/2022 09:35PM  
2012 had some crazy rains. I was in WCPP that June for 26 days. Similar there... upon coming home found Duluth had storms that overwhelmed their sewer systems and such.
In May 2012 I stayed at the campsite on Iron closest to Curtain Falls. Then I’m sure it saw an influx of water with all the rain. But by September 2012 while on 40 day trip I stayed at the same campsite and it was considerably lower then in May. As I think is normal... We still need our rain and here in Itasca county we are getting that right now! I hope that shoots over to the Gunflint eventually tonight and helps open up lakes like Popular. Couple good warm days ahead before next weeks slight cool down.
Funny thing on that Iron Lake campsite... I was there for the last frosty night in May and the first frost in September... same year. With many adventures in between!
 
05/13/2022 06:08AM  
hobbydog: "So what’s the longer term forecast for June? 3rd year on La Niña. Since January there has been significant precipitation in norther MN every 5 to 7 days. Will the pattern change for the summer months? "

The pattern will change for the summer months - no doubt about that. The recent heat in the Central Midwest is transitory and is primarily a result of the strong low pressure off (near Tropical) the East Coast that actually retrograded and blocked up the pattern (slowed the westerlies) and allowed the S PLains heat to surge N and a "ring of fire" pattern which has really soaked the Upper Midwest. Whenever a similar pattern happens during the heart of the hurricane season (late summer) a similar setup can have a heat wave that lasts a week + - and not 3-4 days like this one. -- regardless the S. PLains this summer are going to fry.

I would expect precip to ease back (after all it can't really get more wet) in June and temps to try and get above normal as that is what most guidance says for the Upper Midwest. Try is the key word because now the ground is extremely saturated and will take A LOT of energy from the sun to heat it up the water and the ground -- the opposite of a drought. If in 2-3 weeks the ground is drying out and precip trends are on the decrease about a 50/50 chance of a above normal June temp wise. IF the wet pattern continues about a 66-75% of cooler than normal June.
Some analog years to this years La Nina (not neccs 3 in a row, just similar in placement of warm water along with other teleconnections across the globe) are 2008, 2011, 2017.

The following outlook is from FEB but seems to be quite accurate at this time as it has seen the wet over the N and dry/heat over the S.Plains and the continuation of the La Nina---
Prelim 2022 Summer Outlook
 
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