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      BWCAW Permit Availability Study May 25, 2019     
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schweady
distinguished member(6910)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
05/25/2019 11:21AM
Third in a monthly series

I’m back at it with a new set of numbers showing the permits remaining for the 153 days in the reservation season. 63 entry points x 153 dates = 9,639 numbers representing the 41,049 permits offered each year.

This data was collected one week before the beginning of the month of June. To provide some consistency, I have decided to freeze in place data for each month already underway as collected one week before that month's start. It's not a perfect solution, but in the end, the study will display the number of permits remaining for each of the six months at a point one week prior to its onset. It would be nice if there was time to collect data each day, but...

Hopefully, I can continue to present similar monthly snapshots of permits remaining each month on Jun 24, Jul 25, and Aug 25.

The rationale for the study may be found in previous installments for 2019:
BWCAW Permit Availability Study April 24, 2019
BWCAW Permit Availability Study March 25, 2019

So, here are the results for May 25, 2019 (11+ weeks into the reservation period). I hope you'll enjoy exploring the twenty-one pages of stats on the permits remaining at each of the 63 individual entry points and the three summary pages at the end:


 
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gravelroad
distinguished member (300)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
05/25/2019 04:06PM
Thanks again for all your efforts! Very handy for planning and for speculating about others' motivations.
schweady
distinguished member(6910)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
05/25/2019 05:08PM
Results so far are bearing out one already fairly obvious belief: There is quite an immediate rush to secure one's favorite dates and EPs, and then reservations being made slow down quite a bit after that.

9,515 permits were reserved in the first 3 weeks (23% of the total available)

2,506 permits were reserved in the following month (29% of the total available taken to that point)

2,087 permits were reserved in the month after that (bringing it up to just 34% of the total available that have been taken so far)
schweady
distinguished member(6910)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
05/25/2019 05:11PM
And, there are no days so far for which you could not secure some sort of permit.

Today comes close: If I had not limited myself this round to only updating numbers from June 1st onward, you'd see that only 32 spots are available for walk-up on this Saturday before Memorial Day. But, hey, there are some good ones included in that mix: Fall Lake, Lake One, Angleworm Lake...
tumblehome
distinguished member(1673)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
05/26/2019 06:41AM
There is some statistically fascinating info in study. Cool! Easy to find some entries that just don't get used too often, and the obvious ones that get used too much!
Tom
x2jmorris
distinguished member(1246)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
05/28/2019 08:04AM
This is cool. Especially that last graphic. Makes me want to check out ...

Morgan Lake

Angleworm

Skipper

Meeds

Crocodile River

Paddle4Hike
member (30)member
 
05/28/2019 08:27AM
Thank you Schweady!
Great compilation of data. Appreciate your efforts and a look for useful info and trends.
geranharris
 
05/28/2019 10:54AM
This is a dumb question but, I am assuming that each permit is counted as 1 whether it is for a solo trip or a full group of 9 members correct?

For instance, If the daily quota is 17, and there is a group of 2 with a permit and also a group of 8 with a permit. The available number will now be reflected as 15, and not 7. Am I right?
x2jmorris
distinguished member(1246)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
05/28/2019 11:13AM
Geranharris that is correct
adam
Moderator
 
05/28/2019 09:43PM
geranharris: "This is a dumb question but, I am assuming that each permit is counted as 1 whether it is for a solo trip or a full group of 9 members correct?


For instance, If the daily quota is 17, and there is a group of 2 with a permit and also a group of 8 with a permit. The available number will now be reflected as 15, and not 7. Am I right?"


Correct, a permit is a permit no matter the number of group members.
05/30/2019 10:03AM
This is interesting stuff and useful, too. What is the criteria for the colors chosen? For instance, on the summary page, Moose Lake's number of permits reserved is red but the percentage reserved is comparable to some other entry points with fewer permits per day.
schweady
distinguished member(6910)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
05/30/2019 01:33PM
Ausable: The automatic conditional formatting is the same for every set of numbers being compared -- deep red and green at the far extremes, yellow in the middle. On the last two summary pages, each column’s numbers are being compared without regard to the numbers in any of the other columns. Moose Lake’s 1,993 permits reserved is far and away the most for any of the entry points being compared, but there are so many possible permits available out of Moose (4,153 for the season) that this huge number still only represents 48% of them. Many other EPs, such as Mudro, One, Little Gabbro, have a much higher percentage of permits taken (and number of dates filled), so they get a darker red formatting.
 
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