BWCA What’s the best long range forecast? Boundary Waters Group Forum: WEATHER STUFF
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      What’s the best long range forecast?     

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04/29/2021 05:52PM  
Fishing opener is just two weeks out. I’m heading up but already wondering about some gear and food choices. Any recommendations for two week forecasts and their accuracy?
 
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05/01/2021 10:44PM  
Jaywalker: "Fishing opener is just two weeks out. I’m heading up but already wondering about some gear and food choices. Any recommendations for two week forecasts and their accuracy? "

Tough question. 10+ day forecasts are obviously highly suspect. That's true even for meteorologists whom don't keep track of things 3-4 times daily. I'am currently on my time off and need a break and just noticed a rather large change in the extended that was not there early Thursday. Too get some idea, I would watch the following linkl; it's updated every day but I must stress it's NOT a forecast , just a probability. And very little accountability is held to these forecasters. But they do catch on (sometimes takes awhile) to trends- but for the layman and hobbyist weather geek, it's good enough, usually. You follow them enough, you will see how they flip-flop. But hey- it's the weather.

6-10 / 8-14 day and longer outlooks
 
05/01/2021 10:53PM  
I will say with 100% certainty that long range temp forecasts are MUCH more accurate ( and easier) than precip forecasts. If your using a credible source. This is especially true in the Winter. Precip forecasts could have a thunderstorm drop 3" of rain in an hour and make/break a long range forecast for several weeks. Even predicting a thunderstorm over a certain location 6 hours out is very difficult. I throw out all long range precip predictions unless a serious pattern has developed --- drought etc. and being able to know WHY that is happening. Otherwise- precip past 5 days is a total crapshoot.
 
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