BWCA Where has been all the Severe Weather? Boundary Waters Group Forum: WEATHER STUFF
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      Where has been all the Severe Weather?     



05/11/2021 11:48PM  
For places like Iowa and the Central Plains the peak of the severe weather season is just about upon us. Those in MN,WI,etc, your peak is end of May / early June. Where has been all the severe weather? answer: in the South East and South and even they are running well behind normal.

The following lists the #'s of Tornado Watches and Severe Thunderstorm watches issued by the Storm Prediction Center in Norman,OK. It's crazy low-- 95% of IA has not seen a Svr TS watch and is Mid-May? Other areas such as Tornado Alley must be scratching their head.

Lower 48 Tornado Count through May 10th. 25% and will fall fast next several days as we are in the peak season.

A great tornado link from SPC - on stats. More than you wanna know

Back to the absurd lack of severe weather --

From NWS in Des Moines-- (through April 30th and nothing has changed since) So far this season, we've issued only 3 Severe Thunderstorm Warnings and 0 Tornado Warnings. Lowest warning count since 2000 when there were only 6 issued. On average, we issue about 43 TOR/SVR warning issues through April 30th.

In Iowa, there has only been NINE severe or tornado warnings issued in the state. This is the least since records are good enough to compare (since 2001). The average through April 30 is 110!


So what's the reason behind the lack of severe weather? Basically it's too much cold air relative to averages overwhelming the pattern and not allowing warm/humid air to move further N and clash with normal cold air. (actually the cold does the clashing). And this is the reason that the S has seen some severe weather but they are even behind and certainly passed their peak. Not for the next 7-10 days do I see any change in this ongoing pattern. It will warm up in that time frame, but will there be any clash in air masses? As we get into June/July most of the real nasty severe weather outbreaks are over (atmosphere too warm / no clash) but it's peak for the BWCA area though other than a derecho or so, nothing like Tornado Alley sees in most years. In fact, trying to recall quickly, I don't recall a tornado ever being reported in the BWCAW. I'am probably wrong, if you know of one actually in the BWCAW, drop a note of when and I will try and dig it up.
Enjoy the weather- it's the only weather you got.
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05/12/2021 10:38AM  
I was in a tornado in the BWCA back in the summer 1997 I think. But maybe the radar didn't show it? It was a small one that ripped down trees on jap lake in the middle of the night. The other campers saw it, I only heard it.

Is Mn entering a drought?
05/24/2021 03:23PM  
It's definitely been an unusual spring here in Oklahoma. I'll take the cooler than normal temps over severe storms anyday!

06/03/2021 01:06PM  
Some amazing stats per severe wx. (or the lack of it)

Severe weather is way beyond what it should be. Lack of a clash - unless you live in NM. The lack of svr wx is basically the earth is starting to = or cool per ocean temps. Media is not all over this but worldwide ocean temps (and thus land temps) are starting a downward direction compared to avg's over the last 30 years.
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