BWCA Extended drought - Heat coming like 1976-77? Boundary Waters Listening Point - General Discussion
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05/25/2021 03:05PM  
Lot of speculating on my part, but the trend looks like a very hot summer and super dry. Get that gas stove out if this trend continues.

Whitewolf your forecast is welcome.

In 1976, peat bogs were burning down 20 feet due to lack of moisture which is usually present at the surface. Out west, after record fire season, this year is starting out worst in many western states.

One good sign, bugs were almost zero in the summer.
 
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05/25/2021 03:12PM  
Kawishiwi river flow as of today is 40% of normal.
 
Basspro69
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05/25/2021 03:12PM  
Let’s hope not !
 
05/25/2021 03:15PM  
June and July prediction drier and hotter than normal for the BWCA
 
Savage Voyageur
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05/25/2021 05:13PM  
My weather rock is wet, so…
 
tumblehome
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05/25/2021 05:44PM  
2" of rain this week in Duluth. Everything is lush here.
Tom
 
05/25/2021 05:57PM  

wow you got that rain that went east of much of Minnesota.
 
05/25/2021 05:59PM  
In 1977 at this time Kawishiwi river had a flow of 16 Cubic feet per second, 3% of normal.
 
05/25/2021 06:06PM  
burning restrictions

This is for brush piles etc.
 
marsonite
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05/25/2021 08:49PM  
Pinetree: "Lot of speculating on my part but the trend looks like a very hot summer and super dry?

Get that gas stove out if this trend continues.

Whitewolf your forecast welcome.
.
1976 peat bogs were burning down 20 feet because lack of moisture which usually present at the surface.
Out west after record fire season this year is starting out worst in many western states.
One good sign bugs were almost zero in the summer."


I remember they closed the woods to all outdoor activities at one point. You couldn't even go bird watching IIRC. Amazing there weren't more big fires.

So I hope you're wrong about this year. It seems like we are due for a dry one, though I always take long range forecasts with a very healthy grain of salt, no matter what the source.
 
05/25/2021 08:55PM  
marsonite: "Pinetree: "Lot of speculating on my part but the trend looks like a very hot summer and super dry?


Get that gas stove out if this trend continues.


Whitewolf your forecast welcome.
.
1976 peat bogs were burning down 20 feet because lack of moisture which usually present at the surface.
Out west after record fire season this year is starting out worst in many western states.
One good sign bugs were almost zero in the summer."



I remember they closed the woods to all outdoor activities at one point. You couldn't even go bird watching IIRC. Amazing there weren't more big fires.


So I hope you're wrong about this year. It seems like we are due for a dry one, though I always take long range forecasts with a very healthy grain of salt, no matter what the source. "


Yes they even closed fishing season in the fall of 1976.
 
tumblehome
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05/25/2021 09:04PM  
Pinetree: "
wow you got that rain that went east of much of Minnesota."


We had hard rain on Sunday night. Got 1.2 inches off that one alone.
I hope we keep getting rain. We are still down for the year but it is coming here and there.
 
Unas10
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05/26/2021 04:46AM  
Pinetree: "June and July prediction drier and hotter than normal for the BWCA"

What is "normal"? How many years do you have to look at to determine a "normal" year when considering something with as many variables as weather?
 
Frenchy
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05/26/2021 05:44AM  
That was the year the Army Corp of Engineers contemplated releasing water from Leech lake to raise the level of Mississippi River to keep barge traffic flowing.
 
marsonite
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05/26/2021 06:38AM  
Unas10: "Pinetree: "June and July prediction drier and hotter than normal for the BWCA"


What is "normal"? How many years do you have to look at to determine a "normal" year when considering something with as many variables as weather?"


A climate "normal" is based on the average for the last 30 years.
 
Minnesotian
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05/26/2021 07:34AM  

Yes, I am anticipating a drier the normal summer. I can already feel it out on the farm in Western Minnesota. Last real soaker of rain was the beginning of April. I really wished this last rain had gotten more west. My hometown has already made the news twice this spring for having the highest temperature in the state, getting upto 90 degrees each time. And the winds from the south/southwest have been hot.
 
05/26/2021 08:49AM  
Next 10 days for Ely they are predicting a total of 0.04 inches of rain.
 
05/26/2021 11:38AM  
Last year, LLC was 2 to 4 feet below normal. I was hoping and watching weather forecasts all winter for heavier snows/rain up north. Looks like it's going to be another below-normal year up there.
 
CityFisher74
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05/26/2021 11:46AM  
Pinetree: "Next 10 days for Ely they are predicting a total of 0.04 inches of rain."

How concerned are we for fire ban in BWCA in next 2 weeks or so?
 
05/26/2021 12:02PM  
CityFisher74: "Pinetree: "Next 10 days for Ely they are predicting a total of 0.04 inches of rain."


How concerned are we for fire ban in BWCA in next 2 weeks or so?"


Good question, I see around 10 days out it suppose to get warm. I could see something about campfires around June 4
 
CityFisher74
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05/26/2021 01:16PM  
Pinetree: "CityFisher74: "Pinetree: "Next 10 days for Ely they are predicting a total of 0.04 inches of rain."



How concerned are we for fire ban in BWCA in next 2 weeks or so?"



Good question, I see around 10 days out it suppose to get warm. I could see something about campfires around June 4"


I have my first trip on June 3rd. I'll keep my fingers crossed.
 
05/26/2021 02:42PM  
CityFisher74: "Pinetree: "CityFisher74: "Pinetree: "Next 10 days for Ely they are predicting a total of 0.04 inches of rain."


How concerned are we for fire ban in BWCA in next 2 weeks or so?"



Good question, I see around 10 days out it suppose to get warm. I could see something about campfires around June 4"



I have my first trip on June 3rd. I'll keep my fingers crossed."



Yeah, I'm going in on the 12th and am worried about a fire ban during that time too. We'll see.
 
05/26/2021 07:48PM  
Burning permits are required for fires larger than 3-feet high and 3-feet in diameter in much of the state now.
 
05/26/2021 08:02PM  
Pinetree: "Burning permits are required for fires larger than 3-feet high and 3-feet in diameter in much of the state now."

Correct, burning permits are "always" required when the fire is over 3 feet in diameter and over three feet high, unless the ground is covered in 3 inches or more of snow.

From the MN DNR
"You need an open burning permit when:

When the fire is more than 3 feet high and 3 feet in diameter.
When the ground is not completely covered by a minimum of 3 inches of snow.
When the fire is not contained in either an approved burner or in a cooking or heating device such as charcoal grill or camp stove.
Where county or other local jurisdiction requires a burning permit year round or for all sizes of fires"

Link
 
05/27/2021 10:21AM  
A large part of Minnesota increased in DO this past week. A couple small reductions in D1 and D2 in extreme NW Minnesota occurred.

A quote from this weeks Drought Monitor that was published today.

"Coupled with above-normal average temperatures this week (9°F to 12°F positive anomalies) across the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest, increases in D0 coverage were warranted across western and central Minnesota and parts of the Arrowhead."

This weeks drought monitor came out today. It is from data complied up to last Tuesday on May 25th.
 
05/27/2021 10:29PM  
Well the forecast was wrong again. They promised us 0.2 inches and we got another big goose egg.
 
05/27/2021 10:43PM  
SE MN in moderate drought, but some areas near by got 2 inches today.
It has been raining here since 4 am
 
Savage Voyageur
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05/28/2021 09:50AM  
In central Minnesota we have had lots of rain. I’m mowing my lawn every 5 days. Water levels on my lake are at high levels. No drought here.
 
05/29/2021 05:49AM  
LindenTree: "Pinetree: "Burning permits are required for fires larger than 3-feet high and 3-feet in diameter in much of the state now."


Correct, burning permits are "always" required when the fire is over 3 feet in diameter and over three feet high, unless the ground is covered in 3 inches or more of snow.

From the MN DNR
"You need an open burning permit when:

When the fire is more than 3 feet high and 3 feet in diameter.
When the ground is not completely covered by a minimum of 3 inches of snow.
When the fire is not contained in either an approved burner or in a cooking or heating device such as charcoal grill or camp stove.
Where county or other local jurisdiction requires a burning permit year round or for all sizes of fires"

Link "




That was my thought Linden. But yeah, not sure what to think. We sure got nailed with the last rain. Problem is that it comes hard and fast. Runs off kinda quick.
But alway good to hear from our friend Pinetree...
 
05/29/2021 05:55AM  
We have a 60% chance of rain for Sunday
 
05/29/2021 09:42AM  
In Brainerd(were powder dry right now) were suppose to have 3 days in the 90's, end of next week and 0.05 inches of rain. Ely not much better. Highs just close to 90 and maybe 0.2 inches for a week.
 
missmolly
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05/29/2021 10:35AM  
I'm emotionally tethered to the land, so when it withers, I do too.
 
05/29/2021 06:14PM  
Pinetree: "In Brainerd(were powder dry right now) were suppose to have 3 days in the 90's, end of next week and 0.05 inches of rain. Ely not much better. Highs just close to 90 and maybe 0.2 inches for a week."



But it does say possible thunderstorms with higher precipitation amounts possible. I’m guessing with the heat we’ll get more rain popping up. I hope you get some of that.

Miss Molly, is it dry out there too?
 
WhiteWolf
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05/29/2021 11:27PM  
Just returned from Insula. Water levels are extremely low for time of year. Several very shallow areas getting to Insula from Lake One were passable on Tuesday, but not today. Water levels today were approximately 2-3" lower in just 5 days.
I haven't been following the weather for obvious reasons, but if a drought shows itself, it would not be surprising.
Btw- woods are getting very dry.
 
missmolly
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05/30/2021 06:19AM  
It is dry here, Ben. According to Drought Monitor, it's not drought-level dry, but still exceptionally dry. However, 1.5 to 2.0 inches of rain is forecast for tonight, so that'll help.
 
bretthexum
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05/30/2021 05:00PM  
Horse River was probably the lowest I've ever seen. 3 extra portages already needed which is crazy this early in the season. Tacked on about 1.5 hours extra from Horse Lake to Basswood.
 
05/30/2021 09:51PM  
I saw that system go through today. Was there any accumulation? There wasn't any near Brainerd despite the lighting and wind.
 
05/30/2021 09:52PM  
We have had a solid .5" of rain today in Ely, and still coming down.
Every little bit helps.

May flies started to hatched today.

Helped a few folks from Georgia find the Kawishiwi River. All 9 had bent paddles facing the wrong way. I hope they found a camp site before the storms came in.
 
05/30/2021 10:59PM  
Soledad: "We have had a solid .5" of rain today in Ely, and still coming down.
Every little bit helps.


May flies started to hatched today.


Helped a few folks from Georgia find the Kawishiwi River. All 9 had bent paddles facing the wrong way. I hope they found a camp site before the storms came in.
"


+1-at least someone up north got some. It actually looked like the iron range to ely got a decent shower. Yes in Brainerd we got at least 0.01 inches today.
 
Minnesotian
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05/31/2021 11:55AM  

Just spent the weekend backpacking through the Paul Bunyan State Forest. Left late on Sunday right as some sprinkling rain came down, but it wasn't much at the time. Those woods are getting crispy. Hope it got some rain last night.
 
05/31/2021 03:18PM  
Talking 98 degrees F. Sat. in north central Minnesota. Chance to break record highs 4-5 days in a row.
 
05/31/2021 04:06PM  
I'll pray for rain and a cold front!
 
05/31/2021 05:59PM  
I have a trip coming up on the 12th, how much rain between now and then do you think we need to avoid a fire ban?
 
05/31/2021 08:10PM  
A1t2o: "I have a trip coming up on the 12th, how much rain between now and then do you think we need to avoid a fire ban? "

June 3-11 in Ely it suppose to be 85 degrees F. or above. Maybe 0.2-0.5 inches predicted.
 
marsonite
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05/31/2021 08:16PM  
I would bet that there won't be a fire ban imposed in June. Fire season in Minnesota occurs typically in the spring before greenup, and in the late summer/early fall. In June, even if it's dry, it's very green out there, and if fires start, they typically don't move very fast and can be contained fairly easily. June is also the wettest month.

Perhaps someone with a better memory can chime in and tell me I'm wrong, but I can't recall the USFS imposing a fire ban during the month of June before.

On the other hand, things can dry out very quickly if it over 90, so who knows. Weather always seems to be unusual.







 
05/31/2021 08:29PM  
marsonite: "I would bet that there won't be a fire ban imposed in June. Fire season in Minnesota occurs typically in the spring before greenup, and in the late summer/early fall. In June, even if it's dry, it's very green out there, and if fires start, they typically don't move very fast and can be contained fairly easily. June is also the wettest month.


Perhaps someone with a better memory can chime in and tell me I'm wrong, but I can't recall the USFS imposing a fire ban during the month of June before.


On the other hand, things can dry out very quickly if it over 90, so who knows. Weather always seems to be unusual.





True,but down timber moisture content is very important also.


"
 
05/31/2021 09:35PM  
I was thinking of maybe trying one of the river systems - Frost, Louse, or Perent - in the near future, but wondering if they are troublingly low?
 
05/31/2021 09:40PM  
Jaywalker: "I was thinking of maybe trying one of the river systems - Frost, Louse, or Perent - in the near future, but wondering if they are troublingly low? "

All I know is Kawishiwi river is at about 1/3rd normal flow. I would think Hogs creek flowing in would still be okay?
 
06/01/2021 06:26PM  
Still talking 10 days in a row over 85 degrees F. in north central Minnesota.
 
06/01/2021 09:19PM  
We have three here... two mid 90’s, yikes! Getting some good shots of rain though. Only problem it only comes in the way of storms. We’ve been called out twice in a week to remove trees from the highway.
 
06/01/2021 09:40PM  
nctry: "We have three here... two mid 90’s, yikes! Getting some good shots of rain though. Only problem it only comes in the way of storms. We’ve been called out twice in a week to remove trees from the highway. "

Lot of violent storms in your area, Ben? Hope there isn't too much property damage. At least there will be firewood for next winter.
 
06/02/2021 06:02PM  
On this day, June 2, 1945 Tower got 4.5 inches of SNOW.
 
06/02/2021 09:35PM  
I think within 10 days you will see campfire restrictions in parts of Minnesota.

Two 98 degrees F. this weekend coming north central and the next 14 days predicted above normal.
I have canoed in 95 degrees plus days. No fun.
 
06/02/2021 10:14PM  
I was super excited to see rain in Duluth at 5:15 this morning. Heading north on 53, the rain quit before Cotton. No rain evidence on the Iron Range last night. Hopefully the north country gets a deluge soon!
 
06/03/2021 05:07AM  
In Itasca county we are now under a fire weather watch. Even with the rain we’ve gotten the expected heat and everything is making things ripe. Be careful if having any fires for anything!
 
WhiteWolf
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06/03/2021 07:40AM  
They are getting some precip this AM, -


but the Fire Weather Watch
also includes the BW/Arrowhead-

Fire Weather Watch

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Duluth MN
254 AM CDT Thu Jun 3 2021

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TOMORROW...

.Critical fire weather conditions will be possible tomorrow
afternoon across portions of northeast Minnesota. Abnormally warm
temperatures are forecasted with highs in the 90s. Winds may
become gusty in the afternoon, with gusts likely to reach up to 25
MPH or higher. Dry air in the low levels tomorrow is also likely
to reduce min RHs below 30%.

MNZ010>012-018-019-025-026-033-034-031600-
/O.NEW.KDLH.FW.A.0003.210604T1700Z-210605T0200Z/
Koochiching-North St. Louis-Northern Cook and Lake-North Itasca-
Central St. Louis-North Cass-South Itasca-South Cass-Crow Wing-
254 AM CDT Thu Jun 3 2021

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING FOR TEMPERATURES, WIND, AND LOW HUMIDITIES FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...

* AFFECTED AREA...In Minnesota, Koochiching, North St. Louis,
Northern Cook and Lake, North Itasca, Central St. Louis, North
Cass, South Itasca, South Cass and Crow Wing.

* WINDS...Southwest 5 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph or higher.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 25 percent.

* TEMPERATURES...In the 90s.

* IMPACTS...These conditions are supportive of rapid fire growth.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

 
06/03/2021 08:22AM  
^^ Seems rain storms like that are almost a mixed blessing, delivering both badly needed rain and also un-needed lightening strikes.
 
06/03/2021 05:24PM  
We had very light rain that barely made any impact. Except I was weed whacking cemetery and it made the grass stick to the head stones. So I quit for a dryer day.
I’m guessing the weekend is going to be a bugger.
 
06/03/2021 05:38PM  
Jaywalker: "^^ Seems rain storms like that are almost a mixed blessing, delivering both badly needed rain and also un-needed lightening strikes. "

Very true, us firefighters call Cumulonimbus clouds money clouds. Lightning can strike over five miles away from any noticable precipitation.
They are usually followed by overtime and Hazard pay.

Really dry around Itasca State Park, our Thousand hour Fuels, those bigger tha 3 inches in diameter are at 13 percent today. I don't recall fuel moistures being that dry in the last 18 years or so.
 
06/04/2021 03:23PM  
Temp records are being made over northern Minnesota. Some by as much as 10 degrees F.. A few 100 degrees popping up.
 
06/04/2021 05:18PM  
Pinetree: "Temp records are being made over northern Minnesota. Some by as much as 10 degrees F.. A few 100 degrees popping up."

98 degrees with wind and sun in Virginia today. It’s scary dry up here.
 
06/04/2021 05:27PM  
I hope you people took your long underwear off by now?
 
06/04/2021 05:32PM  
101 degrees F. at the end of the gunflint trail today by Sea Gull lake. Goodbye 2021 blueberries.
 
marsonite
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06/04/2021 05:52PM  
I saw a post on Twitter comparing this year to 1988. Any one remember that? I remember that summer well, as I was a "smoke chaser" for the MNDNR. The drought was probably different than 76-77 in that it was shorter duration, but it was very intense. I remember coming down on a crew to Ham Lake in August IIRC and all the lawns were utterly brown. There was a pretty serious wild fire down there....it was "crowning" in hardwood trees. I don't think there were any huge fires, but there were a lot of lightning fires.
 
Minnesotian
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06/05/2021 10:43AM  
marsonite: "I saw a post on Twitter comparing this year to 1988. Any one remember that "

Growing up on the farm in Western Minnesota, that year is very memorable. I remember so many grasshoppers in the wheat field that year that I hated walking the field. Harvest that year you had to tuck your socks around your pant legs just to make sure no grasshoppers crawled up your legs. So dry, and the hot winds from the south parched your face in seconds. You could feel your lips withering and cracking. Summer baseball practices were held as early in the morning as possible.
Bleah. That was a crappy summer.
 
bretthexum
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06/05/2021 10:54AM  
I think at this point it's just a matter of time before a large wildfire gets started. Long range is pretty sparse with precip and honestly the popup thunderstorms are worse. As mentioned above lightning can strike miles from the storm where it's completely dry.

Not good... especially with the BWCA full. I am honestly surprised there's not campfire restrictions by now.
 
06/05/2021 12:55PM  
bretthexum: "I think at this point it's just a matter of time before a large wildfire gets started. Long range is pretty sparse with precip and honestly the popup thunderstorms are worse. As mentioned above lightning can strike miles from the storm where it's completely dry.


Not good... especially with the BWCA full. I am honestly surprised there's not campfire restrictions by now. "


The long term forecasts are not good and often June is when we get a lot of moisture.
 
WhiteWolf
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06/05/2021 01:10PM  
It seems the worst of it should move W/NW if the long range Euro model is correct. Would spare the BW/Q the worst of it but really hammer ND which is has been in severe drought for sometime.
This pattern is certainly and oddity as I can't recall seeing widespread BN temps in the deep south and a powerhouse Ridge to the north with the record heat. TX/OK appear to me that they will not be seeing much of a traditional summer down there. I mean, for example, Dallas has rain in the forecast every day this weekend into next week with temps in the low/mid 80's when low 90's are normal. My cousin is loving the cooler pattern but the rainfall is getting outta hand. Its very soupy and soggy which isn't good for agriculture.
Need a switch in the weather pattern and my gut says that should happen 2 half of summer.
 
06/05/2021 01:31PM  
Thanks Whitewolf.
 
06/05/2021 01:46PM  
Pinetree: "101 degrees F. at the end of the gunflint trail today by Sea Gull lake. Goodbye 2021 blueberries."
Aside from the fire danger, this could also mean the bears get more fiesty.
 
MHS67
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06/05/2021 08:32PM  
Pinetree: "101 degrees F. at the end of the gunflint trail today by Sea Gull lake. Goodbye 2021 blueberries."

Wow! that's what it was here a couple days ago. What was the relative humidity when it was 101?
 
06/05/2021 08:53PM  
MHS67: "Pinetree: "101 degrees F. at the end of the gunflint trail today by Sea Gull lake. Goodbye 2021 blueberries."


Wow! that's what it was here a couple days ago. What was the relative humidity when it was 101?"


I think it was around 30%

Today it was 94 degrees F. and 26% relative humidity up the Gunflint
 
MHS67
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06/05/2021 10:30PM  
Pinetree: "MHS67: "Pinetree: "101 degrees F. at the end of the gunflint trail today by Sea Gull lake. Goodbye 2021 blueberries."



Wow! that's what it was here a couple days ago. What was the relative humidity when it was 101?"



I think it was around 30%

Today it was 94 degrees F. and 26% relative humidity up the Gunflint"

That's pretty low for your area this time of year?
 
WhiteWolf
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06/05/2021 10:34PM  
From NWS in MPLS. I will check and see if any other NWS offices have issued anything as in-depth. Just for the record ND has been getting pounded drought wise , and is quite likely to see the brunt of the heat (relative to avg's) over the near future, but crazy stat is all time ND actually has hotter max temp (121F) compared to Texas (120F) -- actually only the desert states of NM,AZ,NV and CA are warmer then ND. Now back to early season heat waves for MPLS area.


Early-Season Heat Waves
Heat extremes often punctuate Minnesota's summers, and are most common from the end of June through the end of August. July is by far the state's hottest month, boasting virtually all of our statewide and station-specific heat records, and historically accounts for 40% of all 90-degree F days.

Heat waves that occur during or before the first half of June are less common, and often of a different nature than many (though not all) mid-summer heat waves. A typical July or early-August heat episode may be oppressively humid, whereas late-spring episodes tend to be somewhat "dry."

Following are some statistics from the Twin Cities historical record, for heat extremes occurring on or before June 15th.



Highest daily temperature recorded in Twin Cities on or before June 15
Temperature (F) Date Remarks
106 May 31, 1934 Highest temperature recorded outside of July
103 June 7, 2011
102 June 8, 1985
100 May 28. 2018 Earliest occurrence on record
100 June 13, 1956
99 June 13, 1987
99 June 10, 1956
99 May 22, 1925 Earliest occurrence on record
98 May 14, 2013 Earliest occurrence on record
98 June 14, 1987
98 June 10, 1973
98 May 30, 1934
98 May 28, 1934
97 June 6, 2011
97 May 19, 2009
97 May 28, 2006


Number of 90 F (or greater) high temperatures through June 15 in Twin Cites
Rank Year Number of 90 F Highs
1 1934 12
2 1988 11
3 1987 11
4 2007 8
5 1976 8
6 2018 7
7 1959 7
8 1952 7
9 1925 7
10 1956 6




Runs of five consecutive days with 90+ F high temperatures, occurring on or before June 15, in Twin Cities

Dates Number of Consecutive 90+ F Days Highest Temperature (F)
Average Daily Temperature (F)

Remarks
May 24 - 29, 2018 6 100 81.0 Earliest streak and earliest 100 F reading
May 28 - June 1, 1988 5 92 73.2
May 28 - June 2, 1934 6 106 82.3
June 9 - 14, 1956 6 100 82.8 Warmest streak
June 11-15, 2007 5 92 80.0


One other notable heat event occurred June 6 to June 14, 1976, when just one of the nine dates failed to produce a high of at least 90 degrees F in the Twin Cities. This would otherwise be the longest early-season heat event on record, and nobody at the time mistook the 88 F reading on June 10th for the heat "breaking!"



Last modified June 4, 2021
 
WhiteWolf
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06/05/2021 10:53PM  
marsonite: "I saw a post on Twitter comparing this year to 1988. Any one remember that? I remember that summer well, as I was a "smoke chaser" for the MNDNR. The drought was probably different than 76-77 in that it was shorter duration, but it was very intense. I remember coming down on a crew to Ham Lake in August IIRC and all the lawns were utterly brown. There was a pretty serious wild fire down there....it was "crowning" in hardwood trees. I don't think there were any huge fires, but there were a lot of lightning fires. "

1988 was bad in Central/Southern MN. Probably the worst drought in last 50+ years for that region. My grandparents 60th wedding anniversary was held on 7/30/1988 near Waterville,MN. The entire summer/spring (to some regards) had been a scorcher and on that late July day the temp rose to 105F at the MPLS airport and reports of 108F to 109F were common in S.MN. The single hottest day (and summer) I can recollect growing up in MN.
Oddly- in IA, 1988 was not nearly as bad as 2012 challenged 1936 for it's dust bowl records for July but came up just short.
I really hope drought is not coming to many reading this as it really does no good to anyone. Extreme cold at least takes a good amount of snow on the ground to make/allow the cold to get extreme and someone is making some $$ on that snow removal. Drought just basically makes everyone pay the piper.
 
pastorjsackett
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06/06/2021 05:55AM  
I was on Crooked/Basswood Falls May 30-June 3. It rained both of those days pretty good (we beat the rain into our campsite but paddled home in straight down stuff). In between were three pretty warm days.

The Horse River was indeed low (my first trip there so nothing to compare it too). Everyone we met coming in asked how it was--low was the answer for sure! We pulled our canoes up lots of areas and portaged extra too.

Not much water trickling over the dam here in Sartell these days either.

Stay well and enjoy safe trips you've all got coming up.
 
06/07/2021 09:50AM  
I remember talking to some old school smoke jumpers in the mid 90's who told me they spent most of the summer of 76 in Minnesota. They recalled that they were on fires most every day that summer in northern MN.

Here is a report from today 6-07 about a fire near Baudette. Ernie Schmidt is the incident commander, I have worked with him alot in the past.

Aichele Road Fire
The Aichele (Ike – lee) Road Fire was detected at about 11:00 a.m. along the Aichele Forest Road June 5, 2021. The fire is located 15 miles southwest of Baudette, Minnesota. The fire is burning in a lowland brush, conifers and timber. Minnesota DNR, and volunteer fire departments from Baudette, and Williams responded. Several aircraft made water drops on the fire throughout the afternoon and evening to slow the spread.

06/07/2021 – The Aichele Road Fire is now mapped at 265 acres and 40% contained. Increased humidity yesterday helped keep fire activity minimal and allowed firefighters to focus on holding the fire perimeter and mop up smoldering hot spots. Firefighters will focus on eliminating fire in the peat and preventing fire spread as near critical fire weather conditions are expected today.
 
06/07/2021 01:06PM  
Getting scary-lows and highs running 20 degrees above normal and very little rain. Were warmer than the southern states and drier.
 
06/07/2021 01:57PM  
June 2,Timberjay;

Marshall Helmberger
REGIONAL— A dry May has continued the overall pattern that’s been in place across the region since late last summer and it has sent river levels tumbling again, to levels far below average for this time of year.
While April precipitation eased the drought conditions somewhat, it appears it wasn’t enough to build reserves to maintain water levels. And with barely half the area’s normal rainfall in May, the decline in water levels has continued in recent weeks.
The drop has been most pronounced on the Little Fork River, which has fallen from a flow of 6,560 cubic feet per second (cfs) as of April 12, after the only significant rain outbreak of the spring, to just 361 cfs as of May 17. That’s far below the Q75 for May, meaning it’s almost certainly in the bottom 10th percentile for flow this time of year.
The term Q75 reflects a water level that is lower than 75 percent of the average reading for that time of year. The May Q75 for the Little Fork River is 1,210 cfs, or nearly four times higher than the current river flow.
The Vermilion River has fallen sharply as well, from a high of 1,920 cfs to 461 cfs as of Monday. That’s barely half of the river’s Q75 of 828 cfs.
The Basswood River was just over half of its Q75 at a flow of 1,230 cfs.
With extremely warm temperatures for this time of year forecast for the weekend, with only scattered chances of thunderstorms, water levels are likely to continue to fall over the next several days. June is traditionally the region’s wettest month, with an average of one inch of rain per week.
 
06/08/2021 06:36AM  
Looks like the Arrowhead got some much needed rain overnight. At least looking at the radar anyway.
 
06/08/2021 06:44AM  
airmorse: "Looks like the Arrowhead got some much needed rain overnight. At least looking at the radar anyway."

Looks like a good pummeling started about 3am on the west side, has moved east and it's still raining across the entire wilderness area. Very glad - hope it's enough to make a significant difference.
 
WhiteWolf
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06/08/2021 07:14AM  
Appears to have had the heaviest laid down right along and N of the border-at least in major portions of the BWCA. Still widespread 1/2" totals. Can't be picky at this point.


 
06/08/2021 07:49AM  
Hopefully that put out a few fires up there and dampened the ground to reduce the overall fire danger.
 
06/08/2021 07:51AM  
WhiteWolf: "Appears to have had the heaviest laid down right along and N of the border-at least in major portions of the BWCA. Still widespread 1/2" totals. Can't be picky at this point.



"


Ring of Fire Pattern?
 
WhiteWolf
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06/08/2021 09:53AM  
airmorse: "WhiteWolf: "Appears to have had the heaviest laid down right along and N of the border-at least in major portions of the BWCA. Still widespread 1/2" totals. Can't be picky at this point.




"



Ring of Fire Pattern?"


Somewhat yes. A more true form may be in the cards later this month.....
 
06/08/2021 10:09AM  
WhiteWolf: "airmorse: "WhiteWolf: "Appears to have had the heaviest laid down right along and N of the border-at least in major portions of the BWCA. Still widespread 1/2" totals. Can't be picky at this point.




"




Ring of Fire Pattern?"



Somewhat yes. A more true form may be in the cards later this month....."


Looks like the more severe weather will be to the west and then ride along the stationary front. Hopefully providing more rain to the arrowhead area.
 
06/08/2021 07:55PM  
Its a start but very little predicted in the future. Kawishiwi river water gauge barely moved.
 
06/08/2021 07:57PM  
Kawishiwi river water temp is at 78 degrees F. unheard of this early in the season and quite often all year. Vermillion lake had a surface temp on a recent calm day of 82 degrees F.(of coarse when breeze comes up and it will mic into the 70's.

Quite often June 1 I would have surface temps in the Ely area now just reaching 60 degrees F..
 
06/10/2021 06:48PM  
Burning up in south central Wi. Yard is brown and crunchy, all potholes and ponds are dry, corn is starting to curl.....ironically, some of that is from being frosted just 2 weeks ago.
 
06/11/2021 12:41PM  
Any first hand reports from Ely?
 
06/15/2021 08:45PM  
Farmers in the Brainerd area getting about 25% of the normal hay right now and see the Kawishiwi river still dropping despite recent scattered rains.

(OT)-Some of the highest temperatures were seen in bone-dry Arizona today, where the National Weather Service forecast a record high of 117 degrees (47 degrees Celsius) in Phoenix. The previous high for the date was 115 degrees (46 Celsius), set in 1974
 
06/16/2021 08:55AM  
Pinetree: "Any first hand reports from Ely?"'

I'm in Isabella now, it is slightly moist here with a few mud puddles in the pot holes all the way down Cty Rd 7 to Finland.
I can't speak for the BW, I do see that the Seagull area is showing the driest fire indexes of all the Superior NF now.
 
WHendrix
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06/16/2021 10:32AM  
I paddled on the St. Croix yesterday and it was as low as I've ever seen it. The mean flow at St Croix Falls for the date is 5,830 cfs and yesterday it was at 1990. I know others on here who paddle it more than I have. As anyone seen it lower ?
 
06/16/2021 01:42PM  
LindenTree: "Pinetree: "Any first hand reports from Ely?"'


I'm in Isabella now, it is slightly moist here with a few mud puddles in the pot holes all the way down Cty Rd 7 to Finland.
I can't speak for the BW, I do see that the Seagull area is showing the driest fire indexes of all the Superior NF now."


Thanks I see Kawishiwi river is tied right now with 1977 from records for 51 years for this date for lowest water levels. The dam at highway one must just be a trickle of water going thru?
Any pictures of river or shorlines now?
 
06/16/2021 01:57PM  
Pinetree:

Thanks I see Kawishiwi river is tied right now with 1977 from records for 51 years for this date for lowest water levels. The dam at highway one must just be a trickle of water going thru?
Any pictures of river or shorlines now?"


No pics of lake shorelines, Divide Lake looked to be 1 foot down or more from what I remember. Knife River under hwy 61 looks like a trickle. Here is a pic of Illgen falls and the Baptism River from yesterday.
 
06/16/2021 02:17PM  
I am amazed how fast North shore streams go up and down. Often heard brook trout get caught in pools in conditions like this. Tough life.
 
06/17/2021 11:05AM  
Fire restrictions were just posted for the Chippewa National Forest starting today. Chippewa NF fire restrictions
 
06/17/2021 11:33AM  
LindenTree: "Fire restrictions were just posted for the Chippewa National Forest starting today. Chippewa NF fire restrictions "

Thanks, We had a few farmers baling hay this week and when they strike a rock the hay caught fire.
 
06/17/2021 12:49PM  
We were near Leech lake last week fishing. Extreme and very high were the 2 fire danger signs we saw on the way up. Surface water temps on a 1200 ac lake were 72 when we arrived the weekend after Memorial Day and 78-82 when we left last weekend. Normally good walleye fishing for that time of year was almost non-existent
 
WhiteWolf
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06/17/2021 04:38PM  
MN is really lucking out compared to states to the W and S. Des Moines has had .04" since 5/29/21 and is way behind in yearly precip compared to MSP and other areas in MN.





The following graphic is several days old but shows a good picture of how dry the corn belt has been.
 
WhiteWolf
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06/17/2021 04:54PM  
Drought outlook through September--
 
06/17/2021 07:37PM  
To help ensure public safety and protect natural resources, the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources is activating burning restrictions beginning 12:01 a.m. Friday for the southern and eastern portions of Beltrami county, and all of Cass, Crow Wing, Hubbard, Itasca, Morrison, Todd and Wadena counties.

In the area affected by the restrictions, burning permits will not be issued for brush or yard waste; no fireworks may be ignited on any public or private land outside city limits (check with your local community for any additional restrictions); and campfires are allowed only in an established fire ring associated with a home, campground, or resort.

The burning restrictions will remain in effect until terminated by the DNR Commissioner when weather and environmental conditions indicate a reduction in fire danger.

Casey McCoy, fire prevention supervisor, says while residents and visitors in the affected counties may still see plenty of green vegetation, the current fire situation remains dangerous. “Unusually hot and dry conditions have increased the risk of fire. One unintentional spark in these conditions could result in thousands of charred acres.
 
06/17/2021 10:10PM  
June 17, 2021

DNR responds to wildfire at Scenic State Park
Firefighters are responding to a 10-acre wildfire located in Scenic State Park, 3 ½ miles southeast of Big Fork. The fire is burning in mature pine and brush in the remote northeast corner of the park, and is 50 percent contained. The cause of the fire has yet to be determined.
 
06/18/2021 06:12PM  
40 acre wildfire near Embarrass MN today, closes St Hwy 135.

Edit, after looking at the video of this fire I find it hard to believe that it could be 40 acres in size, however, perhaps this video was taken at an earlier stage in the fire. We will see.
It is dry out there people, all need to be careful with anything that could start fires including lawn mower blades striking rocks. "I have been on a number of those kinds of fires in my career".

Wildfire near Embarrass
 
marsonite
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06/18/2021 07:42PM  
That area south of Tower is prone to fires. Lots of sand and Jack pines I think. When I was a smoke chaser in the 80's, we had the Wahlsten Fire which started on 26 and burned across 135. I think that was something like 300 acres. Then there was the Mother's day fire in the early 90's which was huge.

I saw a post on FB from Piragis that they had a dozer line around 70 percent of it already. Amazing it's still June.

I see there is rain in the forecast for Sunday. Let's hope it pans out. At least get some short term relief.
 
06/18/2021 09:08PM  
marsonite: "That area south of Tower is prone to fires. Lots of sand and Jack pines I think. When I was a smoke chaser in the 80's, we had the Wahlsten Fire which started on 26 and burned across 135. I think that was something like 300 acres. Then there was the Mother's day fire in the early 90's which was huge.


I saw a post on FB from Piragis that they had a dozer line around 70 percent of it already. Amazing it's still June.


I see there is rain in the forecast for Sunday. Let's hope it pans out. At least get some short term relief."


The mothers day fire the air Temp was like 92 degrees F. and we were on Gun lakes by Pauness and we had ashes falling in our boat that day from the tower area. The fish were really biting tho.
 
06/18/2021 09:11PM  
Yes Kawishiwi river for this date is at least the lowest in 51 years.
 
WhiteWolf
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06/19/2021 04:57PM  
 
JWilder
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06/19/2021 06:55PM  
WhiteWolf: " "

Looks pretty widespread! Same is forecasted here in the southern part of the state.

Yes!!!
 
06/19/2021 08:28PM  
Hope so many areas talking 0.7 inches than dry again for the next 10 days again.
Farmers are already talking selling their cows this fall for lack of any hay and quality is very poor.
 
06/20/2021 08:09PM  
0.8 inches in Brainerd today.
 
06/22/2021 10:15PM  
July 22-Montana is thirsty also-even no chainsaw use certain hours of the day:

The ban applies to Yellowstone County outside the Billings city limits. The City of Billings also prohibits fireworks in city limits.

Fireworks vendors will still be allowed to operate in Yellowstone County.

The restrictions also ban:

Building, maintaining, attending, or using a fire or campfire for any purpose.
Smoking, except within an enclosed vehicle or building, a developed recreation site or while stopped in an area at least three feet in diameter that is barren or cleared of all flammable materials.
Operating a chainsaw or other equipment powered by an internal combustion engine, blasting, or welding between 1 p.m. and 1 a.m.
The use of any combustible entertainment device including but not limited to fireworks, unless granted a permit from the Yellowstone County Sheriff for community-related purposes and subject to the requirements put into place by the Sheriff.
Operating motorized vehicles off designated roads and trails.
 
MHS67
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06/22/2021 11:13PM  
Pinetree: "Hope so many areas talking 0.7 inches than dry again for the next 10 days again.
Farmers are already talking selling their cows this fall for lack of any hay and quality is very poor."

Farmers already talking of selling off cows! this early isn't a good sign. Hope things turn around for you guys.
 
06/22/2021 11:15PM  
MHS67: "Pinetree: "Hope so many areas talking 0.7 inches than dry again for the next 10 days again.
Farmers are already talking selling their cows this fall for lack of any hay and quality is very poor."

Farmers already talking of selling off cows! this early isn't a good sign. Hope things turn around for you guys. "


We got a little break wit 0.5-0.9 inches across much of the state yesterday. But no rain now maybe for 10 days again.
 
06/24/2021 12:16PM  
0.3 inches at my place in Duluth last night, the airport reported 1/10th of an inch, lots of lightning. The drought monitor increased the moderate drought rating to severe in N Western MN today. June is Minnesota's rainiest month, this could be bad news for the rest of the year.

Todays drought monitor in MN, indexes are from 2 days ago.
 
06/24/2021 01:16PM  
LindenTree: "0.3 inches at my place in Duluth last night, the airport reported 1/10th of an inch, lots of lightning. The drought monitor increased the moderate drought rating to severe in N Western MN today. June is Minnesota's rainiest month, this could be bad news for the rest of the year.


Todays drought monitor in MN, indexes are from 2 days ago. "


Next 10 days very limited rain forecast.
 
06/26/2021 09:10AM  
Looks like rain today and tomorrow in Ely at least according to wunderground. I don't know how accurate that it or how much precip but anything is better than nothing at this point...
 
06/26/2021 09:23PM  
Portland, Oregon, had the hottest day ever recorded -- reaching 108 degrees Fahrenheit (42.2 degrees Celsius) Saturday afternoon, according to the National Weather Service. The previous record for Oregon's largest city was 107 F (41.7 C), a mark hit in 1965 and 1981.

Than to Minnesota-the northland is going to get almost nothing the next 10 days in precip and temps warming back up.
 
tumblehome
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06/27/2021 06:41AM  
Pinetree: "

Than to Minnesota-the northland is going to get almost nothing the next 10 days in precip and temps warming back up."


Pinetree, I'm not sure where you get your forecasts. Not being snooty.

There is a lot of rain chances in the forecast. It rained heavy for many hours across much of the southern part of MN the same day you wrote this. It rained on and off in the the northern part of the state last night.

It's raining now in Duluth. 6-27
There is rain in the forecast 5 of the next 7 days for the northland.

Once again, not being snooty but....

Yes it is dry, the rivers are low. We need more rain.
 
06/27/2021 07:04AM  
LindenTree: "Pinetree:


Thanks I see Kawishiwi river is tied right now with 1977 from records for 51 years for this date for lowest water levels. The dam at highway one must just be a trickle of water going thru?
Any pictures of river or shorlines now?"



No pics of lake shorelines, Divide Lake looked to be 1 foot down or more from what I remember. Knife River under hwy 61 looks like a trickle. Here is a pic of Illgen falls and the Baptism River from yesterday.
"


That looks really low. I wonder if there will be enough of a rebound for steelhead fly fishing in the fall?

Here's a current drought monitor map for the state of MN.
 
JWilder
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06/27/2021 08:38AM  
8 tenths fell in Le Sueur County yesterday. It literally rained all day. A nice soaker.

We haven’t had a rain event like that since May 27th when an inch fell. I have never been so happy to see rain…

JW
 
marsonite
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06/27/2021 10:34AM  
tumblehome: "Pinetree: "


Than to Minnesota-the northland is going to get almost nothing the next 10 days in precip and temps warming back up."



Pinetree, I'm not sure where you get your forecasts. Not being snooty.


There is a lot of rain chances in the forecast. It rained heavy for many hours across much of the southern part of MN the same day you wrote this. It rained on and off in the the northern part of the state last night.


It's raining now in Duluth. 6-27
There is rain in the forecast 5 of the next 7 days for the northland.


Once again, not being snooty but....


Yes it is dry, the rivers are low. We need more rain."


Not sure where Pinetree get's his forecasts, but the 8-14 day outlook from NOAA is for a hot and dry trend. Short term, rain is forecast for Ely today, but per the weather service, amounts are expected between 1/10th and 1/4" except higher amounts in thunderstorms. So it will help the fire danger in the short term but by no means drought ending rain. For a June forecast, that is dry. There are chances of showers all week, but the probabilities are low, so likely no significant moisture. Then, if it gets hot and dry again, any effects from these rains are going to be gone. A forester told me once that a forest in the hot summer needs about an inch a rain per week to keep up with evapotranspiration.

Having said all that, don't forget that weather can change in a heartbeat. I'm old enough to have lived through more than one drought and it seems like you never really expect it to end. So long range, it's supposed to be dry, but long range forecasting is a very iffy business.
 
06/27/2021 12:44PM  
tumblehome: "Pinetree: "


Than to Minnesota-the northland is going to get almost nothing the next 10 days in precip and temps warming back up."



Pinetree, I'm not sure where you get your forecasts. Not being snooty.


There is a lot of rain chances in the forecast. It rained heavy for many hours across much of the southern part of MN the same day you wrote this. It rained on and off in the the northern part of the state last night.


It's raining now in Duluth. 6-27
There is rain in the forecast 5 of the next 7 days for the northland.


Once again, not being snooty but....


Yes it is dry, the rivers are low. We need more rain."


forecast
 
MHS67
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06/27/2021 02:15PM  
Pinetree: "Portland, Oregon, had the hottest day ever recorded -- reaching 108 degrees Fahrenheit (42.2 degrees Celsius) Saturday afternoon, according to the National Weather Service. The previous record for Oregon's largest city was 107 F (41.7 C), a mark hit in 1965 and 1981.


Than to Minnesota-the northland is going to get almost nothing the next 10 days in precip and temps warming back up."

I can confirm the weather in Portland!! I am there right know.
 
07/01/2021 09:47AM  
This weeks drought monitor increased much of the BWCA to Moderate Drought.

From the link.
"In Minnesota, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reports as of June 27, that 75% of the state’s topsoil moisture is short to very short, meaning that it’s significantly less than what is required for normal plant development. While crops can still improve with additional rain, the damage has already been done to pastures. Abnormal dryness (D0) expanded in Minnesota and moderate drought (D1) expanded in northern Illinois."


This weeks drought monitor.
 
07/01/2021 08:12PM  
I think we had a little reprieve with some rain, now I think were headed into more hot and fairly dry weather.
 
07/02/2021 08:15PM  
Lytton’s(near Vancouver B.C.) temperature hovered around 102 degrees Fahrenheit (39 Celsius) Wednesday. That was down from Tuesday, when the village recorded a new Canadian high of 121.2 F (49.6 C), breaking the previous highs of 118.2 F (47.9 C) it reached Monday and 115 F (46.1 C) on Sunday
 
07/03/2021 08:03AM  
Ely is looking like some scattered thunderstorms on Sunday and next Friday. It's only about 0.2 in but at least it's something. Ely 10 day forecast

I'll be out there in it so it'll be interesting to see where and when it hits (I'll be on LLC/Tiger Bay area).

Out west is a nightmare for lack of rain. One can only pray!
 
Lawnchair107
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07/04/2021 09:00AM  
It’s looking like an all- day soaker coming up on Tuesday.
 
07/04/2021 01:22PM  
Lawnchair107: "It’s looking like an all- day soaker coming up on Tuesday."

Hope so. Looks like more to the south of the BWCA tho. Maybe 2 inches in Brainerd and only 0.3 inches next week for Ely predicted.
 
07/04/2021 10:07PM  
Pinetree: "Lawnchair107: "It’s looking like an all- day soaker coming up on Tuesday."


Hope so. Looks like more to the south of the BWCA tho. Maybe 2 inches in Brainerd and only 0.3 inches next week for Ely predicted."


Kawishiwi river 20% lower than anytime at least in the last 55 years.
 
Bromel
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07/07/2021 12:04PM  
Pinetree: "Pinetree: "Lawnchair107: "It’s looking like an all- day soaker coming up on Tuesday."



Hope so. Looks like more to the south of the BWCA tho. Maybe 2 inches in Brainerd and only 0.3 inches next week for Ely predicted."



Kawishiwi river 20% lower than anytime at least in the last 55 years."


Where on the Kiwishiwi River is this drop most noticable? I am entering at South Kawishiwi #32 on August 2 and wonder if we will encounter low water problems.
 
07/07/2021 04:40PM  
You will be find just the rapids area will be very very low. otherwise just maybe a little longer portage here and there. Enjoy.
 
07/08/2021 09:33PM  
Kawishiwi river at the dam on Highway #1 is flowing at a record low for at least a 55 year period and at 25% of normal.
 
WhiteWolf
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07/09/2021 05:17AM  
With dry air (any time of the year) comes extremes. And it's no different in the dead of summer. Much of the Arrowhead y-day AM had a frost with Hibbing at 34F which set a record for that date and Silver Bay was 32F which is the latest in the season I've seen a legit freezing temp in the Arrowhead in a long time. Hibbing is 37F currently which is another record for the date. Dry air is the culprit and reason for the drought (obviously). Long range guidance at this point is a joke with how dry the air is as far as temps as they will fluctuate greatly but the warm bias should win out with sun angle etc. Sadly- I don't expect many changes to precip outlook for the drought. NOAA just updated their "ENSO" update for the fall/winter and it looks like a repeat of another LA NINA. FTR- two LA NINA's in a row -- equals a near repeat of last winter, but likely more extreme. ( two LA NINA's in a row in the past have proven some epic winters ( not calling that yet) . I will post on this in the weather forum but any long lasting drought relief is a long time coming for the Northland. , However, Temps will likely correct to near normal by years end for yearly avg's. Would you expect Mother Nature to do anything else? And when the drought does end- do you think it will be gradual? Probably a widespread 2' snow event next March followed by 3-4" rains late March with a change in the ENSO to a EL NINO. But that's just an educated guess at thus point.
 
07/09/2021 07:16AM  
I last mowed my front yard on June 5th, and that was just to knock down some of the tall weeds. If I recall correctly, I think we got about 1.3 inches of rain for the month of June. Rain all around us 2 days ago....some people were ecstatic about their half inch. We got .15. Its not good.
 
07/09/2021 11:40AM  
Yesterdays drought monitor increased much of MN into severe drought, much of the Arrowhead of MN is in moderate drought. The drought monitor is updated on Tuesday and I am guessing it did not capture Tuesdays rains over central Minnesota. Drought monitor as of Tuesday.
 
07/09/2021 02:18PM  
LindenTree: "Yesterdays drought monitor increased much of MN into severe drought, much of the Arrowhead of MN is in moderate drought. The drought monitor is updated on Tuesday and I am guessing it did not capture Tuesdays rains over central Minnesota. Drought monitor as of Tuesday. "

Yes theMille lacs area we have got now 4 inches of rain in the last 3 weeks and 1.7 inches a few days ago. 60 miles to the north not very much.
 
07/09/2021 02:51PM  
Pinetree,

Just a hunch but I think we will be seeing campfire restrictions on the Superior NF and BWCA soon. Why?

1,) Nationally we are at a PL4 out of a maximum 5 for fire activity, 10,000 firefighters are comitted to incidents. If one gets going good in the Superior NF getting resources is going to be tough.

2,) There are 4 ongoing fires in the Superior NF now, 2 in the BW and 2 outside the BW.

3,) Current drought conditions are inching upward with little or no precip forcasted for the next 2 weeks.
 
07/09/2021 08:26PM  
LindenTree: "Pinetree,


Just a hunch but I think we will be seeing campfire restrictions on the Superior NF and BWCA soon. Why?


1,) Nationally we are at a PL4 out of a maximum 5 for fire activity, 10,000 firefighters are comitted to incidents. If one gets going good in the Superior NF getting resources is going to be tough.


2,) There are 4 ongoing fires in the Superior NF now, 2 in the BW and 2 outside the BW.


3,) Current drought conditions are inching upward with little or no precip forcasted for the next 2 weeks."


I am pretty sure your right. The moisture content in dead wood was be very very low. I see the BWCA fire called the Delta fire has closed part of the BWCA>
 
07/09/2021 08:36PM  
BWCAW Closures in Effect - July 9, 2021
Date(s): Jul 9, 2021

Due to the Delta Fire, approximately 19 miles east of Ely, the following closures are in effect:

Closures/Campfire Prohibited.

The following entry points are closed: #56-Kekekabic Trail East and #74-Kekekabic Trail West/Snowbank.

Additionally, the following lakes, campsites, and portages in the BWCAW are closed: Parent, Disappointment, Jitterbug, Ahsub, Becoosin, Benezie, Adventure, Rifle, Bridge, Fire, and Drag Primitive Management Area.
 
07/09/2021 09:17PM  
Linden Tree your right again.

BWCA fire ban now in effect.
 
07/09/2021 09:32PM  
Some of the BWCA fires they are blaming on spruce bud worms killing the balsams. These worms have wiped out trees by the millions from Alaska thru Colorado.
 
07/10/2021 04:57PM  
Pinetree: "Some of the BWCA fires they are blaming on spruce bud worms killing the balsams. These worms have wiped out trees by the millions from Alaska thru Colorado."

RE, Fire ban. It jsut dawned on me that restrictions should be starting, never realized I would predict it an hour or two in advance. I had no inside knowledge.

Spruce Bud Worm. Actually I think it is the Pine Bark Beetle that is wiping out conifer trees from Colorado to Alaska. It was really bad on the Kenai Peninsula when I worked in AK. Pine Bark Beetles get under the bark and eat the Cambium Layer, killing the trees in 2 to 3 years.

Pine Bark Beetle
 
07/10/2021 05:35PM  
LindenTree: "Pinetree: "Some of the BWCA fires they are blaming on spruce bud worms killing the balsams. These worms have wiped out trees by the millions from Alaska thru Colorado."


RE, Fire ban. It jsut dawned on me that restrictions should be starting, never realized I would predict it an hour or two in advance. I had no inside knowledge.


Spruce Bud Worm. Actually I think it is the Pine Bark Beetle that is wiping out conifer trees from Colorado to Alaska. It was really bad on the Kenai Peninsula when I worked in AK. Pine Bark Beetles get under the bark and eat the Cambium Layer, killing the trees in 2 to 3 years.


Pine Bark Beetle "


Okay Thanks, either way the changing climate and drought is causing huge infestations of insects.

Who would ever think we would talk about multiple days over 100 degrees F. in numerous states out west and also Canada. There really hurting for water out there and summer is just getting started.
 
MHS67
distinguished member(1458)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
07/10/2021 08:16PM  
We are in a several day over 100 stretch. The last 2 days have been 112. Tomorrow is supposed to be the hottest day in the stretch. We usually don't get any rain from late may to late October or November. We live at elevation 1350 feet and our annual rainfall is around 25 inches. The 2020, 2021 rainfall season we got just 13 inches. None of the creeks on the ranch ran this year at all. A friend of mine cuts and sells firewood. He has been splitting green live oak. He said its so dry you could start a fire in 6 inch limb wood with a match. I'm sure that might be an exaggeration but it is really dry!!

I really hate to see your area get caught up in another drought. It's nice seeing all the green and seeing it rain in the summer. It doesn't look like I will make it back there this summer. Lets hope all this passes for both our areas!!
 
07/10/2021 09:10PM  
MHS67: "We are in a several day over 100 stretch. The last 2 days have been 112. Tomorrow is supposed to be the hottest day in the stretch. We usually don't get any rain from late may to late October or November. We live at elevation 1350 feet and our annual rainfall is around 25 inches. The 2020, 2021 rainfall season we got just 13 inches. None of the creeks on the ranch ran this year at all. A friend of mine cuts and sells firewood. He has been splitting green live oak. He said its so dry you could start a fire in 6 inch limb wood with a match. I'm sure that might be an exaggeration but it is really dry!!


I really hate to see your area get caught up in another drought. It's nice seeing all the green and seeing it rain in the summer. It doesn't look like I will make it back there this summer. Lets hope all this passes for both our areas!!
"


Been watching the weather you been getting and lets just say nature has thrown the nuclear bomb or the book at you. Your landscape, the people live or farm there and the animals could be changed for decades or who knows when this will end. Just think if you got two more years of this-your water sources will be wiped out. Migration of people and animals could occur?
 
07/11/2021 09:10AM  
Pinetree: "Some of the BWCA fires they are blaming on spruce bud worms killing the balsams. These worms have wiped out trees by the millions from Alaska thru Colorado."

Yeah, the spruce budworm has been terrible here in NE Minnesota. I've probably cut and burned a hundred dead balsams over the past few years and replanted w white pines.

This stuff burns like gasoline when its blown down and dried out.

Spruce budworm is a native insect, but the northern forest has still not recovered from the pine logging of the early 20th century, and the often incompetent mismanagement of the forest since then.

So, we end up with vast swaths of old balsams, where in the past they might have occurred in patches in a mosaic of forest types and ages. Same with aspens.

Monocultures fuel insect or disease outbreaks.
 
07/11/2021 09:26PM  
arctic: "Pinetree: "Some of the BWCA fires they are blaming on spruce bud worms killing the balsams. These worms have wiped out trees by the millions from Alaska thru Colorado."


Yeah, the spruce budworm has been terrible here in NE Minnesota. I've probably cut and burned a hundred dead balsams over the past few years and replanted w white pines.


This stuff burns like gasoline when its blown down and dried out.


Spruce budworm is a native insect, but the northern forest has still not recovered from the pine logging of the early 20th century, and the often incompetent mismanagement of the forest since then.


So, we end up with vast swaths of old balsams, where in the past they might have occurred in patches in a mosaic of forest types and ages. Same with aspens.


Monocultures fuel insect or disease outbreaks."


Your fuel index or moisture content must be almost zero. Remember camping in Quetico a dry year when it was hot. You didn't have to hardly light a match and you had one hot fire. Lot different than spring with damp moisture ridden wood.
 
07/11/2021 09:44PM  
Pinetree: "MHS67: "We are in a several day over 100 stretch. The last 2 days have been 112. Tomorrow is supposed to be the hottest day in the stretch. We usually don't get any rain from late may to late October or November. We live at elevation 1350 feet and our annual rainfall is around 25 inches. The 2020, 2021 rainfall season we got just 13 inches. None of the creeks on the ranch ran this year at all. A friend of mine cuts and sells firewood. He has been splitting green live oak. He said its so dry you could start a fire in 6 inch limb wood with a match. I'm sure that might be an exaggeration but it is really dry!!



I really hate to see your area get caught up in another drought. It's nice seeing all the green and seeing it rain in the summer. It doesn't look like I will make it back there this summer. Lets hope all this passes for both our areas!!
"



Been watching the weather you been getting and lets just say nature has thrown the nuclear bomb or the book at you. Your landscape, the people live or farm there and the animals could be changed for decades or who knows when this will end. Just think if you got two more years of this-your water sources will be wiped out. Migration of people and animals could occur?"


Or a water pipeline from the Great lakes.
 
07/11/2021 09:50PM  
Good one
 
07/12/2021 08:08PM  
Ely forecast-next 14 days almost no rain and temps warming up with some in the low 90's. Hope this breaks soon, we don't want to call Ely the prairie canoe area.
 
07/14/2021 08:28PM  
July 14
Interesting read: Both NOAA and NASA show soil moisture levels down to some of the lowest recorded levels for much of the West. Most of California, Oregon, Washington, Nevada, Arizona, Utah and Idaho are drier than in 99% of other years.

WILDFIRES BURNING

There are 68 active large fires burning, consuming 1,038,003 acres (420,000 hectares) of land, according to the National Interagency Fire Center. With those fires and ones in Canada, there is “one large area of smoke over much of the U.S. and Canada,” NOAA said Tuesday.

So far this year, wildfires have burned 2.2 million acres (899,000 hectares), which is less than the 10-year average for this time of year. But that may change because dry plants are at extra high risk of burning in much of the West as shown in what experts call fir
 
07/15/2021 08:51AM  
This weeks new drought monitor is out, it puts parts of north central Minnesota into extreme drought. This is likely to get worse quickly with the high temperatures and little rain predicted in the next ten days.
Click on the region/state to zoom in.

Summary for the midwest.

Midwest
"Much of this week’s rain fell over the central and eastern Corn Belt and parts of the central Great Lakes. Where the heaviest rainfall was not observed, 1-category degradations were in order. This was particularly the case across much of central and northern Minnesota, where soil moisture percentiles have dropped to below the 5th percentile,"


Drought Monitor for 7/15/21
 
07/15/2021 11:59AM  
 
07/18/2021 11:56PM  
All things are relevant-this was a small campfire compared to what is happening out west now.

The Pagami Creek Fire was a wildfire in northern Minnesota, United States, that began with a lightning strike on August 18, 2011.[1] After weeks of slow growth, the wildfire quickly spread to over 92,000 acres (370 km2) during several days of hot, dry, windy weather in mid-September.[2] The
 
schweady
distinguished member(7412)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
07/19/2021 08:28AM  
Pinetree: "The Pagami Creek Fire was a wildfire in northern Minnesota, United States, that began with a lightning strike on August 18, 2011.[1] After weeks of slow growth, the wildfire quickly spread to over 92,000 acres (370 km2) during several days of hot, dry, windy weather in mid-September.[2] The "
Yup. The strong west winds of September 12, 2011. This daily progression map of the Pagami Creek wildfire tells it all.
 
07/20/2021 08:50PM  
Awful smokey around thee Mille lacs area, suppose to be the same. Ely area must be lot worse. I mean it is thick like your right next to the fire.
Also next 10 days plus, hot and dry. I think plants really going to start drying up along with shallow water ponds etc.
 
MHS67
distinguished member(1458)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
07/20/2021 09:07PM  
I just looked at the wind chart for the northern Minnesota area. It shows winds around 8mph out of the south east. Should be blowing the smoke from Canada to the north west. Interesting!
 
07/20/2021 09:16PM  
MHS67: "I just looked at the wind chart for the northern Minnesota area. It shows winds around 8mph out of the south east. Should be blowing the smoke from Canada to the north west. Interesting!"
I think I heard one more day(Wednesday) of heavy smoke in north central Minnesota than wind change like you said.

I though a month ago-hoped anyhow-the drought would end. It looks like by forecasts it is going to get much worse. Just starting?
 
07/20/2021 11:26PM  
 
07/26/2021 02:12PM  
Its interesting I see in my home town in Brainerd not rivers throughout the state people are finding relics and construction projects in the water they never new existed.

Low water can make things interesting.
 
07/26/2021 10:53PM  
Much of the stae is in the same situation: As of Sunday, rainfall recorded at the Brainerd Lakes Regional Airport — including a half-inch during the early morning thunderstorm Saturday — sat at 1.55 inches for the month of July. Normally by this point in the month, the area sees an average of 3.69 inches. Last year, a much wetter summer brought a total of 6.27 inches recorded in July.

For the year to date, the Brainerd area received a total of 7.69 inches of precipitation. This is almost half of normal, which is 14.39 inches, and so far, 2021 is shaping up to be the fourth driest year on record for the Brainerd area. The weather service reported only the years of 1906, 2006 and 1936 were drier — the latter of which occurred during the Dust Bowl era.

Dry vegetation and unusually low water levels in lakes, rivers and streams are a visual reminder of the drought conditions plaguing the region. Soil moisture in the Brainerd area currently is 10-15%, a notably low measure, and the weather service issued a low flow forecast for the Mississippi River in Brainerd. This means the amount of water moving through the river is below 1,000 cubic feet per second.

In fact, the flow was measured at nearly half that, with 524 cubic feet per second the latest reading on Sunday, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. The lowest recorded in the last 34 years was 405 cubic feet in 1988. Average flow is 3,720 cubic feet per second.
 
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