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10/04/2021 11:16AM  
Through October 18th, predictions are a low of 39 degrees in that time span. Usually quite common by then for the Ely-Gunflint to see a little snow. Looks like the year to do a mid-October trip.

Warm and warmer

With leaves turning now could be time for a awesome trip and less people.
 
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Gadfly
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10/04/2021 12:59PM  
I remember deer opener was quit warm last year. Felt like it was pushing 70. By the second weekend it was cold enough for small ponds to have enough ice to walk across. Hope we see a swing like this soon.
 
10/04/2021 01:08PM  
The general October outlook maps I've seen have the whole middle of the continent warmer and slightly wetter than usual. Making colors a little slow to change....and keeping the bugs around.
 
10/04/2021 01:09PM  
Water temps in Kawishiwi river today is 65 degrees F. . Should be closer to 50 F. degrees right now.
 
tumblehome
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10/04/2021 01:35PM  
Last fall we had a very early cold snap and the lakes were freezing up just after Halloween. It’s a strange weather patterns come and go.
Duluth had snow last year at this time and the year before.
 
smoke11
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10/04/2021 01:57PM  
I was up the Echo trail last week and it was warmer than mid June and the fishing was better to.
 
mjmkjun
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10/04/2021 03:31PM  
This extended warmth during first half of October was predicted on a weather channel when I was internet surfing a few weeks ago. When the transition occurs to what is typical of the region it will be sudden. Don't get caught out there without proper layering attire.
 
yellowcanoe
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10/04/2021 06:20PM  
Nearby we had our first snow. Not in the Midwest though.
 
10/04/2021 06:39PM  
Calling Whitewolf.....
 
yogi59weedr
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10/04/2021 08:10PM  
Pinetree, I was fishing on the Mississippi last Thursday and river temp was 68° 71°. We usually have a bigger difference than that.

I was in NW Illinois.
 
WhiteWolf
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10/05/2021 04:22AM  
HighnDry: "Calling Whitewolf....."
I'am reading. Not too much time here but expect the overall above avg temps to continue for the next 10-14 days. Their is a system around day 8-9 from this post that has potential snow in the Dakotas-- snow or not (models probably over doing it) but this should usher in more normal air for this time of season. How long it lasts is not certain, if at all. Likely a revert to more above normal temps. However- I will caution folks that sometime in early OCT nearly every year that the seasonal jet streams undergo a major switch, maybe not in dips S or N (temps) but in amplitudes and periods (long waves vs. short waves). This is the time the long range models struggle more than most. Expect changes. I just don't expect major changes from the rather extended warm period ( since most of the summer) until maybe late NOV. Even that is looking bleak. But analog packages with Hurricane data suggest a cold start in DEC- below normal?-- and this makes sense as cold DEC's (below avg) on the whole have had warm Falls in the past 30 years or so. ( have not had a cold start to winter in years) If your a fan of winter weather, no need wasting a cold OCT/ early NOV when it really doesn't matter with a real cold in DEC and on. ( why waste the cold early on?) That is what things look like now but this pattern is a bugger to change. Much like the drought/fire season in the Upper Midwest from April to Aug this year. Once it bucks, expect the other side to show up for a time. I hope to post a winter outlook soon in the weather forum but to be totally honest - the cards have yet to be dealt as the hurricane season ( key) still likely has a major play in things. Once the Tropics shut down leads to a major clue how the first part of winter shows up.
Many think cold DEC. I think this may need to be pushed back- especially areas W of the Mississippi. More to come in the weather forum.
 
billconner
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10/05/2021 06:41PM  
I've been doing yard work and every half hour or so a flock (gaggle?) of geese fly over, honking drowning out everything. Wonderful! They were all going north, I assume to a meeting place.
 
10/05/2021 07:42PM  
Were getting flooded with asian lady bugs.
 
yogi59weedr
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10/05/2021 08:14PM  
Oh man, those Asian lady bugs are the ones that bite....my camper area is terrible when they start combining the beans. Which is now. Urugh!!!!!!!!
 
10/05/2021 08:54PM  
Thanks for the weather outlook, WW.
 
10/06/2021 09:33AM  
yogi59weedr: "Oh man, those Asian lady bugs are the ones that bite....my camper area is terrible when they start combining the beans. Which is now. Urugh!!!!!!!!
"

Yep, and throw in some minute pirate bugs for good measure... yeh, buddy!
 
mjmkjun
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10/06/2021 04:02PM  
yogi59weedr: "Oh man, those Asian lady bugs are the ones that bite....my camper area is terrible when they start combining the beans. Which is now. Urugh!!!!!!!!
"

Ugh! They start to swarm here in southern Ohio the last week of October. I live in a wooded area and they come out of the woods by the thousands. Your post reminded me to check my camper to make sure all vents are closed. I've heard they were introduced to feed the wild turkeys. A darn PITA plague is what they are! Plus, this year stink bugs are plentiful for first time. They're not as plentiful in numbers as Asian ladybugs, thankfully.
 
10/06/2021 05:50PM  
mjmkjun: I've heard they were introduced to feed the wild turkeys. A darn PITA plague is what they are! Plus, this year stink bugs are plentiful for first time. They're not as plentiful in numbers as Asian ladybugs, thankfully.
"


Sounds like they were introduced in 1916 to combat aphids, I thought it was more recently than that. I doub't any respectable Wild Turkey would eat one of those.

Asian Ladybugs.
 
10/06/2021 06:32PM  
LindenTree: "mjmkjun: I've heard they were introduced to feed the wild turkeys. A darn PITA plague is what they are! Plus, this year stink bugs are plentiful for first time. They're not as plentiful in numbers as Asian ladybugs, thankfully.
"



Sounds like they were introduced in 1916 to combat aphids, I thought it was more recently than that. I doub't any respectable Wild Turkey would eat one of those.


Asian Ladybugs. "


Agree with you Linden,I thought they were introduced like 1985 or something. Also heard it was to control aphids on certain ag crops.
 
10/06/2021 11:07PM  
Asian beetles, multiflora rose...please plan better when you camp during shoulder season.
 
10/07/2021 06:34AM  
I know chickens won't eat them. They will, however, eat ladybugs.
 
10/07/2021 11:30AM  
Average low in Ely is now 32 degrees F.. Forecast is for low 50's ti mid 40's. Temps are unreal.
 
Mocha
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10/07/2021 11:41AM  
doesn't sound like good temps for deer hunting.
 
10/07/2021 12:05PM  
Mocha: "doesn't sound like good temps for deer hunting."

Even now as a bow hunter,it does not seem like deer hunting. Too hot and if you got one it would spoil fast.
Will see,lot of time the last week of Oct. temps really turn?

A great year for a canoe trip with water temps still 65 degrees F., no chance of freezing in on a trip.
The Gunflint lakes and color would be awesome now.
 
PeaceFrog
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10/07/2021 12:18PM  
mjmkjun: "yogi59weedr: "Oh man, those Asian lady bugs are the ones that bite....my camper area is terrible when they start combining the beans. Which is now. Urugh!!!!!!!!
"

Ugh! They start to swarm here in southern Ohio the last week of October. I live in a wooded area and they come out of the woods by the thousands. Your post reminded me to check my camper to make sure all vents are closed. I've heard they were introduced to feed the wild turkeys. A darn PITA plague is what they are! Plus, this year stink bugs are plentiful for first time. They're not as plentiful in numbers as Asian ladybugs, thankfully.
"


Yep. Our cabin in Vinton County getting populated by the darn sting bug. You get the vacuum after them and 5 minutes later there are more than before. Pesky buggers appear out of nowhere.
 
10/10/2021 11:14AM  
With water temps still 63 degrees F. and the next 15 days of no frost and 10 degrees above normal were talking could be November and no frost- this is unreal.
Had a friends plum tree flower the other day. Some plants are even get messed up.
Deer ticks flourishing with a big hatch now which should of waited until spring. Be careful.
 
10/10/2021 01:44PM  
Deer tick usually have a hatch now. They do here anyways, frost or no frost. It is weird warmth, but not unpresidented. We’ve got to thanksgiving with no frost in the past. Just one of those years. I’m expecting to see frost alerts by the weekend here. Friday night they’re saying 36... we usually beat that.
 
10/10/2021 04:15PM  
nctry: "Deer tick usually have a hatch now. They do here anyways, frost or no frost. It is weird warmth, but not unpresidented. We’ve got to thanksgiving with no frost in the past. Just one of those years. I’m expecting to see frost alerts by the weekend here. Friday night they’re saying 36... we usually beat that."

True on the hatch,but seems bigger and longer sustained when you don't have a good frost to keep them down. The hatch like all insects is controlled by temps to some degree.

The road from Goodland to Hibbing on what I call the short cut I think in the fall is one of the prettiest around. Were peaking in Brainerd and they are gorgeous.
 
gravelroad
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10/10/2021 05:35PM  
Pinetree: "Through October 18th, predictions are a low of 39 degrees in that time span. Usually quite common by then for the Ely-Gunflint to see a little snow. Looks like the year to do a mid-October trip.

Warm and warmer


With leaves turning now could be time for a awesome trip and less people."


I was on Seagull last weekend. The experience convinced me I should have followed my hunch to go at least a week later. Many prime sites were occupied and you couldn’t paddle an hour without seeing or hearing a boat. Don’t get me started on the chatter from three boats fishing together …
 
10/10/2021 05:48PM  
gravelroad: "Pinetree: "Through October 18th, predictions are a low of 39 degrees in that time span. Usually quite common by then for the Ely-Gunflint to see a little snow. Looks like the year to do a mid-October trip.


Warm and warmer



With leaves turning now could be time for a awesome trip and less people."



I was on Seagull last weekend. The experience convinced me I should have followed my hunch to go at least a week later. Many prime sites were occupied and you couldn’t paddle an hour without seeing or hearing a boat. Don’t get me started on the chatter from three boats fishing together …"


Wow a decade ago if you went the last week of Sept. you would have the lake to yourself. Recent years people are finding out fall tripping can be great. This years weather has been unreal and great for tripping. Yes maybe off SeaGull a nonmotorized entry point would of been quieter.
 
Minnesotian
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10/10/2021 08:58PM  
Pinetree: "


The road from Goodland to Hibbing on what I call the short cut I think in the fall is one of the prettiest around. Were peaking in Brainerd and they are gorgeous.
"


That is a great little short-cut. Took that on a motorcycle a couple years ago and had a blast.

I should be driving through Goodland next Friday and stocking up on the best bacon in the state from Fred's.
 
gravelroad
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10/11/2021 06:34AM  
I should clarify that my reference above to “boat” meant “canoe.” There were motorized boats out and about in the permitted zone as well, but only a couple while I traversed it.
 
10/14/2021 07:23PM  
Thunder Bay breaks record of no frost this late.

Ely's average daily low now is 30 degrees F..
 
10/22/2021 10:14AM  
Much of north central and the State got a killing frost finally. Morning temp was 26 degrees F. in Brainerd. We still haave quite a few leaves on trees this late and I see some people getting a fresh crop of raspberries and a few plum blossums.

Your area have a frost yet?
Last year on Oct. 19th central and northern Minnesota had a small snowstorm with like 4 inches of snow.
 
10/22/2021 05:59PM  
About the same here... no snow. But should be a good snowy cold winter. Especially the second half.
 
10/22/2021 06:17PM  
nctry: "About the same here... no snow. But should be a good snowy cold winter. Especially the second half."

Ben do you grouse hunt and deer hunt around your area. I know at one time that was really good for both. Maybe it has changed?
I know the deer ticks surely moved northward over the years and you have them like we do further south?
 
jhb8426
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10/23/2021 01:38AM  
Pinetree: "Through October 18th, predictions are a low of 39 degrees in that time span.


Not trying to refute anyone's comments here...

This post originated on Oct 4, 2021. On Oct 4 1969 it was 84 deg. in the twin cities, and I'm guessing the rest of the state was warm as well. I specifically recall because it was the day we got married. We took a trip along the north shore and it was warm all week. Can't remember the exact date but it was probably 10 years ago we were at Cove Point near Silver Bay in the 1st week of October for our anniversary and there was 2 in. of snow on the ground. It varies over time.
 
10/23/2021 08:29AM  
jhb8426: "Pinetree: "Through October 18th, predictions are a low of 39 degrees in that time span.



Not trying to refute anyone's comments here...


This post originated on Oct 4, 2021. On Oct 4 1969 it was 84 deg. in the twin cities, and I'm guessing the rest of the state was warm as well. I specifically recall because it was the day we got married. We took a trip along the north shore and it was warm all week. Can't remember the exact date but it was probably 10 years ago we were at Cove Point near Silver Bay in the 1st week of October for our anniversary and there was 2 in. of snow on the ground. It varies over time.
"


1st week of Oct. in 2012 Isabella lake area got 5-6 inches of snow. I was canoeing. I know up to highway 1 it was that way also.
 
10/23/2021 09:14AM  
 
10/23/2021 02:20PM  
Pinetree: "nctry: "About the same here... no snow. But should be a good snowy cold winter. Especially the second half."


Ben do you grouse hunt and deer hunt around your area. I know at one time that was really good for both. Maybe it has changed?
I know the deer ticks surely moved northward over the years and you have them like we do further south?"




Hoping to deer hunt. Depends on how I’m doing. Tony helped me with my stand. Grouse are everywhere! I’ve enjoyed watching a couple hatches around here. Kira (my dog) likes to chase them into trees. Yep, good hunting yet!
 
10/23/2021 02:26PM  
Pinetree: "nctry: "Deer tick usually have a hatch now. They do here anyways, frost or no frost. It is weird warmth, but not unpresidented. We’ve got to thanksgiving with no frost in the past. Just one of those years. I’m expecting to see frost alerts by the weekend here. Friday night they’re saying 36... we usually beat that."


True on the hatch,but seems bigger and longer sustained when you don't have a good frost to keep them down. The hatch like all insects is controlled by temps to some degree.


The road from Goodland to Hibbing on what I call the short cut I think in the fall is one of the prettiest around. Were peaking in Brainerd and they are gorgeous.
"



Yep, 16 is a beautiful road. Or it was... all that’s left is aspen / poplar. Soon I’m going south amongst the Joshua trees.
 
TuscaroraBorealis
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10/24/2021 12:05PM  


This morning at the Vermilion River dam near Buyck, MN
 
10/24/2021 01:49PM  
TuscaroraBorealis: "


This morning at the Vermilion River dam near Buyck, MN"


Always liked those crisp mornings steam coming off the water and a touch of frost.
 
10/24/2021 01:50PM  
Ben
Have a good winter,but hope you get out deer hunting. At my age its just nice getting out with nature, a deer is frosting on the cake.

 
10/24/2021 05:47PM  
Pinetree: "Ben
Have a good winter,but hope you get out deer hunting. At my age its just nice getting out with nature, a deer is frosting on the cake.

"




Thanks, you too... was out today at the stand. I love it out there. With my luck Mayo will schedule me to come in that week.so we’ll just have to see what happens. I got a phone call this morning going over everything. I told them if they want I’ll go to the Mayo in Phoenix.
 
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