No not the smokin hot blonde or red head, but the computers that try to predict what our weather will be.

Have they taken into account the change in climate. Warming. Yes climate is the weather average of the past 30 years. It seems like when the long range forecasts come out to say a cold and snowy winter is expected for the Midwest or New England that usually does not happen because the temps turn out to be above average. Which you would think would yield more precip because warm air has the potential to hold more moisture.

Yes many factors go into predictions, Ocean temps, sea ice, what cycle the sun is in....

It does seem like things are changing faster than what the computers (and us) are expecting. The SW USA heck the western half of the US seems to be in a drought and accelerating. The drier it gets the hotter it gets (no evaporation cooling) and the chances of enough precip to balance things out diminish rapidly.

Any thoughts on this?

Not sure if they take this into account. But one thing is certain is that medium / long range models such as the CsV2 that predict monthly have a very difficult (esp of late) time "seeing" cold air. This is also true of the the upgraded GFS, but with the GFS it's mainly a feedback error and the model struggles to see moisture and it's forecasted temps sky rocket. . GFS has consistently this summer show temps in the Plains/ Upper Midwest 10-15F too warm only 3-4 days out during heat waves (110-115F) -- while still quite hot, upper 90's, a complete joke within 72-96 hours.

Back to the CsV2- I don't remember this "bias" years back, but I don't know if the model has undergone some "upgrade" or has a feedback issue also. Likely the cause is garbage in garbage out -sadly. I look at all the long range stuff (months out) but have learned to use teleconnections (Nina's / Nino's etc) rather than models as they just seem to be all over the place from one run to the next.

This winter does look very interesting. I really don't know yet one way or the other for temps/precip but it will be a 3rd year in a row with La Nina, something that has only happened 1 time before in tracking such things-- (early 1950's if my memory is correct)

But to answer your question- I really do not know for sure.

WhiteWolf: " Back to the CsV2- I don't remember this "bias" years back, but I don't know if the model has undergone some "upgrade" or has a feedback issue also. "

My brother has to work with weather a little bit at his job and he told me about the upgrade and how it made it all junk. So yes to answer your question there was an upgrade that messed it up.