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      BWCAW permit availability study July 25, 2019 - FINAL STUDY FOR THE 2019 SEASON!     
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schweady
distinguished member(6979)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
08/25/2019 07:53PM
Sixth — AND FINAL — in a monthly series

Here is my last set of numbers showing the permits remaining for the 153 days in the 2019 reservation season. 63 entry points x 153 dates = 9,639 numbers representing the 41,049 permits offered during the year.

This set of data was collected one week before the beginning of the month of September. To provide some consistency, I freeze in place the numbers for each of the previous months as collected one week before that month's start.

As we finally arrive at the end of the project, the study now consistently displays the number of permits remaining for each of the 5 reservation months at a consistent point — one week prior to its onset. That makes this month’s collection of images the best one on which to focus. (That said, some interesting data may also be pulled from earlier studies, such as date/EP combinations that fill almost immediately after reservation opening…)

I hope that you have enjoyed the project... my best attempt at depicting the popularity and relative availability of permits for each date and each entry point throughout the season. It’s far from perfect, for sure, but I’ve tried to apply a fairly consistent data collection method.

The rationale for the study may be found in previous installments for 2019:

BWCAW Permit Availability Study July 25, 2019

BWCAW Permit Availability Study June 24, 2019

BWCAW Permit Availability Study May 25, 2019

BWCAW Permit Availability Study April 24, 2019

BWCAW Permit Availability Study March 25, 2019

So, here are the results for August 25, 2019 (25 weeks into the reservation period). I hope you'll enjoy exploring the twenty-one pages of stats on the permits remaining at each of the 63 individual entry points and the three summary pages at the end:



 
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OldRez
member (22)member
 
09/02/2019 11:03AM
This is a fascinating as well as useful endeavor. Thanks for putting it together. For those who hate paddling around occupied campsites for hours, this study can identify the dates & points-of-entry promising more solitude.
schweady
distinguished member(6979)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
09/03/2019 06:07PM
Thanks, OldRez.

This past week, I was pretty convinced that folks had tired of my monthly calendar threads, and who's to blame them? It is a lot to digest. And, for many, it can easily be dismissed out of hand, since they are just fine with the places and dates that they go in, so why the details?

Anyway, I'll say it again: if you look over just one of my availability studies, it should probably be this one. Some interesting end-of-season stuff collected that just might guide next year's trip planning. And, if you're seeing an EP that got filled up for most of the year, maybe look back at an early study to see how fast those precious permits were snapped up immediately following the reservation opening date.

Cheers.
09/10/2019 09:35AM
I'm rather late in reading your data, but I appreciate the work you have done for us. I've bookmarked this thread so that I can find it easily in this next year.
gravelroad
distinguished member (313)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
09/13/2019 07:31AM
Thank you again for the work you have done and the service you have provided with this!
x2jmorris
distinguished member(1249)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
09/13/2019 08:51AM
I like the work you have compiled. However it won't stop my procrastination. I might just have to take whatever is open everytime lol. Not a bad thing though as I get to see areas I probably would normally avoid.
jillpine
distinguished member(505)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished member
 
09/13/2019 07:43PM
Schweady - glad this got bumped. Thank you for compiling the information. It is useful and interesting. I'm thinking Q or other PP next year because of the crowds (and I can't go for long trips in the shoulder seasons) - maybe looking at your hard work over the winter months will give me some other ideas. For the love of stats! Thank you again!
~jp
DaveM
member (32)member
 
01/20/2020 11:33PM
Thank you!
01/21/2020 12:45PM
This is really interesting! Thanks for putting in the effort and for sharing it with us.
schweady
distinguished member(6979)distinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberdistinguished memberpower member
 
01/21/2020 03:45PM
A timely bump, DaveM...

Just over a week to go to the 2020 reservation season. Here's hoping that digging into this data may be of some use to a number of folks out there doing their last-minute planning. :-)
iCallitMaize
member (10)member
 
01/29/2020 09:09PM
This information is super valuable for us who are trying to narrow down new routes. Many, many thanks!
 
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